Geology topics

David C. Douglas

Publications and source records attributed to David C. Douglas.

At least 91 records · Page 5Linked to original sources

USGS2013

Patterns of social association in the franciscana, Pontoporia blainvillei

Little is known from living animals about the social patterns of the franciscana, Pontoporia blainvillei , a small dolphin inhabiting a narrow strip of coastal waters off Argentina, Uruguay, and Brazil. These dolphins tend to be found in small groups, typically composed of two or three individuals (Bordino et al. 1999). Throughout much of the species' range, franciscanas encounter artisanal gill nets (Praderi 1989, Corcuera et al. 1994, Bertozzi and Zerbini 2002, Bordino et al. 2002, Secchi et al. 2003). Entanglement in these nets results in the deaths of thousands of individuals each year, at levels that are likely unsustainable (Bordino and Albareda 2004, Cappozzo et al. 2007).

Marine Mammal Science↗

USGS2013

The paradox of extreme high-altitude migration in bar-headed geese Anser indicus

Bar-headed geese are renowned for migratory flights at extremely high altitudes over the world's tallest mountains, the Himalayas, where partial pressure of oxygen is dramatically reduced while flight costs, in terms of rate of oxygen consumption, are greatly increased. Such a mismatch is paradoxical, and it is not clear why geese might fly higher than is absolutely necessary. In addition, direct empirical measurements of high-altitude flight are lacking. We test whether migrating bar-headed geese actually minimize flight altitude and make use of favourable winds to reduce flight costs. By tracking 91 geese, we show that these birds typically travel through the valleys of the Himalayas and not over the summits. We report maximum flight altitudes of 7290 m and 6540 m for southbound and northbound geese, respectively, but with 95 per cent of locations received from less than 5489 m. Geese travelled along a route that was 112 km longer than the great circle (shortest distance) route, with transit ground speeds suggesting that they rarely profited from tailwinds. Bar-headed geese from these eastern populations generally travel only as high as the terrain beneath them dictates and rarely in profitable winds. Nevertheless, their migration represents an enormous challenge in conditions where humans and other mammals are only able to operate at levels well below their sea-level maxima.

Proceedings of the Royal Society B↗

USGS2013

Migration and wintering areas of American Bitterns ( Botaurus lentiginosus ) that summer in central North America as determined by satellite and radio telemetry, 1998-2003

Twenty adult male American Bitterns (Botaurus lentiginosus) were marked on summer range in central North America with satellite tracking Platform Transmitter Terminals (PTTs) to document migration routes and wintering range. Nineteen complete fall migration routes were documented for 17 individuals. Of the successful migrations, 63% (n = 12) went to southern Florida, 32% (n = 6) to southern Louisiana, and 5% (n = 1) to the Gulf coast of Texas. Spring migrations for nine birds were documented, and 78% (n = 7) showed fidelity to breeding range. Two complete migrations for two individuals were documented, and they demonstrated fidelity to winter range. The longest, fastest movement documented was 2,300 km in less than 74 hr. Extensive, post-breeding dispersal was not observed in the adult male American Bitterns in this study. Six male American Bitterns were marked with PTTs on winter range in Florida and Texas. Spring migration for these birds was documented to Nebraska, North Dakota, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Ontario. Sixty-seven American Bitterns were marked with Very High Frequency radio transmitters on summer ranges, and 16% (n = 11) were located on wintering grounds used by the satellite-tracked birds, further documenting the importance of the Everglades and the Louisiana coast as winter habitat for American Bitterns that breed in Central North America.

Waterbirds↗

USGS2012

Moderating Argos location errors in animal tracking data

1. The Argos System is used worldwide to satellite-track free-ranging animals, but location errors can range from tens of metres to hundreds of kilometres. Low-quality locations (Argos classes A, 0, B and Z) dominate animal tracking data. Standard-quality animal tracking locations (Argos classes 3, 2 and 1) have larger errors than those reported in Argos manuals. 2. The Douglas Argos-filter (DAF) algorithm flags implausible locations based on user-defined thresholds that allow the algorithm's performance to be tuned to species' movement behaviours and study objectives. The algorithm is available in Movebank – a free online infrastructure for storing, managing, sharing and analysing animal movement data. 3. We compared 21,044 temporally paired global positioning system (GPS) locations with Argos location estimates collected from Argos transmitters on free-ranging waterfowl and condors (13 species, 314 individuals, 54,895 animal-tracking days). The 95th error percentiles for unfiltered Argos locations 0, A, B and Z were within 35·8, 59·6, 163·2 and 220·2 km of the true location, respectively. After applying DAF with liberal thresholds, roughly 20% of the class 0 and A locations and 45% of the class B and Z locations were excluded, and the 95th error percentiles were reduced to 17·2, 15·0, 20·9 and 18·6 km for classes 0, A, B and Z, respectively. As thresholds were applied more conservatively, fewer locations were retained, but they possessed higher overall accuracy. 4. Douglas Argos-filter can improve data accuracy by 50–90% and is an effective and flexible tool for preparing Argos data for direct biological interpretation or subsequent modelling.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2012

Contrasting extreme long-distance migration patterns in bar-tailed godwits Limosa lapponica

Migrating birds make the longest non-stop endurance flights in the animal kingdom. Satellite technology is now providing direct evidence on the lengths and durations of these flights and associated staging episodes for individual birds. Using this technology, we compared the migration performance of two subspecies of bar-tailed godwit Limosa lapponica travelling between non-breeding grounds in New Zealand (subspecies baueri ) and northwest Australia (subspecies menzbieri ) and breeding grounds in Alaska and eastern Russia, respectively. Individuals of both subspecies made long, usually non-stop, flights from non-breeding grounds to coastal staging grounds in the Yellow Sea region of East Asia (average 10 060 ± SD 290 km for baueri and 5860 ± 240 km for menzbieri ). After an average stay of 41.2 ± 4.8 d, baueri flew over the North Pacific Ocean before heading northeast to the Alaskan breeding grounds (6770 ± 800 km). Menzbieri staged for 38.4 ± 2.5 d, and flew over land and sea northeast to high arctic Russia (4170 ± 370 km). The post-breeding journey for baueri involved several weeks of staging in southwest Alaska followed by non-stop flights across the Pacific Ocean to New Zealand (11 690 km in a complete track) or stopovers on islands in the southwestern Pacific en route to New Zealand and eastern Australia. By contrast, menzbieri returned to Australia via stopovers in the New Siberian Islands, Russia, and back at the Yellow Sea; birds travelled on average 4510 ± 360 km from Russia to the Yellow Sea, staged there for 40.8 ± 5.6 d, and then flew another 5680–7180 km to Australia (10 820 ± 300 km in total). Overall, the entire migration of the single baueri godwit with a fully completed return track totalled 29 280 km and involved 20 d of major migratory flight over a round-trip journey of 174 d. The entire migrations of menzbieri averaged 21 940 ± 570 km, including 14 d of major migratory flights out of 154 d total. Godwits of both populations exhibit extreme flight performance, and baueri makes the longest (southbound) and second-longest (northbound) non-stop migratory flights documented for any bird. Both subspecies essentially make single stops when moving between non-breeding and breeding sites in opposite hemispheres. This reinforces the critical importance of the intertidal habitats used by fuelling godwits in Australasia, the Yellow Sea, and Alaska.

Alaska↗

USGS2012

Eco-virological approach for assessing the role of wild birds in the spread of avian influenza H5N1 along the central Asian flyway

A unique pattern of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 outbreaks has emerged along the Central Asia Flyway, where infection of wild birds has been reported with steady frequency since 2005. We assessed the potential for two hosts of HPAI H5N1, the bar-headed goose ( Anser indicus ) and ruddy shelduck ( Tadorna tadorna ), to act as agents for virus dispersal along this ‘thoroughfare’. We used an eco-virological approach to compare the migration of 141 birds marked with GPS satellite transmitters during 2005–2010 with: 1) the spatio-temporal patterns of poultry and wild bird outbreaks of HPAI H5N1, and 2) the trajectory of the virus in the outbreak region based on phylogeographic mapping. We found that biweekly utilization distributions (UDs) for 19.2% of bar-headed geese and 46.2% of ruddy shelduck were significantly associated with outbreaks. Ruddy shelduck showed highest correlation with poultry outbreaks owing to their wintering distribution in South Asia, where there is considerable opportunity for HPAI H5N1 spillover from poultry. Both species showed correlation with wild bird outbreaks during the spring migration, suggesting they may be involved in the northward movement of the virus. However, phylogeographic mapping of HPAI H5N1 clades 2.2 and 2.3 did not support dissemination of the virus in a northern direction along the migration corridor. In particular, two subclades (2.2.1 and 2.3.2) moved in a strictly southern direction in contrast to our spatio-temporal analysis of bird migration. Our attempt to reconcile the disciplines of wild bird ecology and HPAI H5N1 virology highlights prospects offered by both approaches as well as their limitations.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2012

Effects of sea ice on winter site fidelity of Pacific common eiders ( Somateria mollissima v-nigrum )

In northern marine habitats, the presence or absence of sea ice results in variability in the distribution of many species and the quality and availability of pelagic winter habitat. To understand the effects of ice on intra- and inter-annual winter site fidelity and movements in a northern sea-duck species, we marked 25 adult Pacific Common Eiders ( Somateria mollissima v-nigrum ) on their nesting area at Cape Espenberg, Alaska, with satellite transmitters and monitored their movements to their wintering areas in the northern Bering Sea for a 2-year period. We examined changes in winter fidelity in relation to home-range characteristics and ice. Characteristics of polynyas (areas with persistent open water during winter) varied substantially and likely had an effect on the size of winter ranges and movements within polynyas. Movements within polynyas were correlated with changes in weather that affected ice conditions. Ninety-five percent of individuals were found within their 95% utilization distribution (UD) of the previous year, and 90% were found within their 50% UD. Spatial distributions of winter locations between years changed for 32% of the individuals; however, we do not consider these subtle movements biologically significant. Although ice conditions varied between polynyas within and between years, the Common Eiders monitored in our study showed a high degree of fidelity to their winter areas. This observation is counterintuitive, given the requirement that resources are predictable for site fidelity to occur; however, ice may not have been severe enough to restrict access to other resources and, subsequently, force birds to move.

Alaska↗

USGS2012

Polar bear and walrus response to the rapid decline in Arctic sea ice

The Arctic is warming faster than other regions of the world due to positive climate feedbacks associated with loss of snow and ice. One highly visible consequence has been a rapid decline in Arctic sea ice over the past 3 decades - a decline projected to continue and result in ice-free summers likely as soon as 2030. The polar bear ( Ursus maritimus ) and the Pacific walrus ( Odobenus rosmarus divergens ) are dependent on sea ice over the continental shelves of the Arctic Ocean's marginal seas. The continental shelves are shallow regions with high biological productivity, supporting abundant marine life within the water column and on the sea floor. Polar bears use sea ice as a platform for hunting ice seals; walruses use sea ice as a resting platform between dives to forage for clams and other bottom-dwelling invertebrates. How have sea ice changes affected polar bears and walruses? How will anticipated changes affect them in the future?

Alaska↗

USGS2011

First description of autumn migration of Sooty Falcon Falco concolor from the United Arab Emirates to Madagascar using satellite telemetry

The movement and migration pattern of the 'Near Threatened' Sooty Falcon Falco concolor is poorly known. Sooty Falcons breed on the islands of the Arabian Gulf after arriving from their non-breeding areas that are mainly in Madagascar. In the first satellite tracking of the species we fitted a 9.5 g Argos solar powered transmitter on an adult breeding Sooty Falcon off the western coast of Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates. The bird successfully undertook autumn migration to Madagascar, a known wintering area for the species. We document the Sooty Falcon's autumn migration route and stop-over sites. The adult Sooty Falcon initiated its migration at night and with tailwinds, and travelled mainly during daytime hours for 13 days over an inland route of more than 5,656 km. The three stop-over sites in East Africa were characterised by moderate to sparse shrub cover associated with potential sources of water. We discuss the migration pattern of the tracked bird in relation to importance of non-breeding areas for Sooty Falcons and recent declines in numbers in their breeding range.

Bird Conservation International↗

USGS2011

Wild bird migration across the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau: A transmission route for highly pathogenic H5N1

Background Qinghai Lake in central China has been at the center of debate on whether wild birds play a role in circulation of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus H5N1. In 2005, an unprecedented epizootic at Qinghai Lake killed more than 6000 migratory birds including over 3000 bar-headed geese ( Anser indicus ). H5N1 subsequently spread to Europe and Africa, and in following years has re-emerged in wild birds along the Central Asia flyway several times. Methodology/Principal Findings To better understand the potential involvement of wild birds in the spread of H5N1, we studied the movements of bar-headed geese marked with GPS satellite transmitters at Qinghai Lake in relation to virus outbreaks and disease risk factors. We discovered a previously undocumented migratory pathway between Qinghai Lake and the Lhasa Valley of Tibet where 93% of the 29 marked geese overwintered. From 2003–2009, sixteen outbreaks in poultry or wild birds were confirmed on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and the majority were located within the migratory pathway of the geese. Spatial and temporal concordance between goose movements and three potential H5N1 virus sources (poultry farms, a captive bar-headed goose facility, and H5N1 outbreak locations) indicated ample opportunities existed for virus spillover and infection of migratory geese on the wintering grounds. Their potential as a vector of H5N1 was supported by rapid migration movements of some geese and genetic relatedness of H5N1 virus isolated from geese in Tibet and Qinghai Lake. Conclusions/Significance This is the first study to compare phylogenetics of the virus with spatial ecology of its host, and the combined results suggest that wild birds play a role in the spread of H5N1 in this region. However, the strength of the evidence would be improved with additional sequences from both poultry and wild birds on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau where H5N1 has a clear stronghold.

Qinghai Lake↗

USGS2011

Projected status of the Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens) in the twenty-first century

Extensive and rapid losses of sea ice in the Arctic have raised conservation concerns for the Pacific walrus ( Odobenus rosmarus divergens ), a large pinniped inhabiting arctic and subarctic continental shelf waters of the Chukchi and Bering seas. We developed a Bayesian network model to integrate potential effects of changing environmental conditions and anthropogenic stressors on the future status of the Pacific walrus population at four periods through the twenty-first century. The model framework allowed for inclusion of various sources and levels of knowledge, and representation of structural and parameter uncertainties. Walrus outcome probabilities through the century reflected a clear trend of worsening conditions for the subspecies. From the current observation period to the end of century, the greatest change in walrus outcome probabilities was a progressive decrease in the outcome state of robust and a concomitant increase in the outcome state of vulnerable. The probabilities of rare and extirpated states each progressively increased but remained <10% through the end of the century. The summed probabilities of vulnerable, rare, and extirpated (P(v,r,e)) increased from a current level of 10% in 2004 to 22% by 2050 and 40% by 2095. The degree of uncertainty in walrus outcomes increased monotonically over future periods. In the model, sea ice habitat (particularly for summer/fall) and harvest levels had the greatest influence on future population outcomes. Other potential stressors had much smaller influences on walrus outcomes, mostly because of uncertainty in their future states and our current poor understanding of their mechanistic influence on walrus abundance.

Polar Biology↗

USGS2011

Tracking the autumn migration of the bar-headed goose ( Anser indicus ) with satellite telemetry and relationship to environmental conditions

The autumn migration routes of bar-headed geese captured before the 2008 breeding season at Qinghai Lake, China, were documented using satellite tracking data. To assess how the migration strategies of bar-headed geese are influenced by environmental conditions, the relationship between migratory routes, temperatures, and vegetation coverage at stopovers sites estimated with the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) were analyzed. Our results showed that there were four typical migration routes in autumn with variation in timing among individuals in start and end times and in total migration and stopover duration. The observed variation may be related to habitat type and other environmental conditions along the routes. On average, these birds traveled about 1300 to 1500 km, refueled at three to six stopover sites and migrated for 73 to 83 days. The majority of the habitat types at stopover sites were lake, marsh, and shoal wetlands, with use of some mountainous regions, and farmland areas.

International Journal of Zoology↗

USGS2010

Greenhouse gas mitigation can reduce sea-ice loss and increase polar bear persistence

On the basis of projected losses of their essential sea-ice habitats, a United States Geological Survey research team concluded in 2007 that two-thirds of the worlds polar bears (Ursus maritimus) could disappear by mid-century if business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions continue. That projection, however, did not consider the possible benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. A key question is whether temperature increases lead to proportional losses of sea-ice habitat, or whether sea-ice cover crosses a tipping point and irreversibly collapses when temperature reaches a critical threshold. Such a tipping point would mean future greenhouse gas mitigation would confer no conservation benefits to polar bears. Here we show, using a general circulation model, that substantially more sea-ice habitat would be retained if greenhouse gas rise is mitigated. We also show, with Bayesian network model outcomes, that increased habitat retention under greenhouse gas mitigation means that polar bears could persist throughout the century in greater numbers and more areas than in the business-as-usual case. Our general circulation model outcomes did not reveal thresholds leading to irreversible loss of ice; instead, a linear relationship between global mean surface air temperature and sea-ice habitat substantiated the hypothesis that sea-ice thermodynamics can overcome albedo feedbacks proposed to cause sea-ice tipping points. Our outcomes indicate that rapid summer ice losses in models and observations represent increased volatility of a thinning sea-ice cover, rather than tipping-point behaviour. Mitigation-driven Bayesian network outcomes show that previously predicted declines in polar bear distribution and numbers are not unavoidable. Because polar bears are sentinels of the Arctic marine ecosystem and trends in their sea-ice habitats foreshadow future global changes, mitigating greenhouse gas emissions to improve polar bear status would have conservation benefits throughout and beyond the Arctic.

Nature↗

USGS2010

Variability of the seasonally integrated normalized difference vegetation index across the north slope of Alaska in the 1990s

The interannual variability and trend of above-ground photosynthetic activity of Arctic tundra vegetation in the 1990s is examined for the north slope region of Alaska, based on the seasonally integrated normalized difference vegetation index (SINDVI) derived from local area coverage (LAC) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data. Smaller SINDVI values occurred during the three years (1992-1994) following the volcanic eruption of Mt Pinatubo. Even after implementing corrections for this stratospheric aerosol effect and adjusting for changes in radiometric calibration coefficients, an apparent increasing trend of SINDVI in the 1990s is evident for the entire north slope. The most pronounced increase was observed for the foothills physiographical province.

Alaska↗

USGS2010

Interannual growth dynamics of vegetation in the Kuparuk River watershed, Alaska based on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index

Interannual above-ground production patterns are characterized for three tundra ecosystems in the Kuparuk River watershed of Alaska using NOAA-AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data. NDVI values integrated over each growing season (SINDVI) were used to represent seasonal production patterns between 1989 and 1996. Spatial differences in ecosystem production were expected to follow north-south climatic and soil gradients, while interannual differences in production were expected to vary with variations in seasonal precipitation and temperature. It was hypothesized that the increased vegetation growth in high latitudes between 1981 and 1991 previously reported would continue through the period of investigation for the study watershed. Zonal differences in vegetation production were confirmed but interannual variations did not covary with seasonal precipitation or temperature totals. A sharp reduction in the SINDVI in 1992 followed by a consistent increase up to 1996 led to a further hypothesis that the interannual variations in SINDVI were associated with variations in stratospheric optical depth. Using published stratospheric optical depth values derived from the SAGE and SAGE-II satellites, it is demonstrated that variations in these depths are likely the primary cause of SINDVI interannual variability.

International Journal of Remote Sensing↗

USGS2010

Migration of waterfowl in the east asian flyway and spatial relationship to HPAI H5N1 outbreaks

Poyang Lake is situated within the East Asian Flyway, a migratory corridor for waterfowl that also encompasses Guangdong Province, China, the epicenter of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1. The lake is the largest freshwater body in China and a significant congregation site for waterfowl; however, surrounding rice fields and poultry grazing have created an overlap with wild waterbirds, a situation conducive to avian influenza transmission. Reports of HPAI H5N1 in healthy wild ducks at Poyang Lake have raised concerns about the potential of resilient free-ranging birds to disseminate the virus. Yet the role wild ducks play in connecting regions of HPAI H5N1 outbreak in Asia is hindered by a lack of information about their migratory ecology. During 2007-08 we marked wild ducks at Poyang Lake with satellite transmitters to examine the location and timing of spring migration and identify any spatiotemporal relationship with HPAI H5N1 outbreaks. Species included the Eurasian wigeon ( Anas penelope ), northern pintail ( Anas acuta ), common teal ( Anas crecca ), falcated teal ( Anas falcata ), Baikal teal ( Anas formosa ), mallard ( Anas platyrhynchos ), garganey ( Anas querquedula ), and Chinese spotbill ( Anas poecilohyncha ). These wild ducks (excluding the resident mallard and Chinese spotbill ducks) followed the East Asian Flyway along the coast to breeding areas in northern China, eastern Mongolia, and eastern Russia. None migrated west toward Qinghai Lake (site of the largest wild bird epizootic), thus failing to demonstrate any migratory connection to the Central Asian Flyway. A newly developed Brownian bridge spatial analysis indicated that HPAI H5N1 outbreaks reported in the flyway were related to latitude and poultry density but not to the core migration corridor or to wetland habitats. Also, we found a temporal mismatch between timing of outbreaks and wild duck movements. These analyses depend on complete or representative reporting of outbreaks, but by documenting movements of wild waterfowl, we present ecological knowledge that better informs epidemiological investigations seeking to explain and predict the spread of avian influenza viruses. ?? 2010 American Association of Avian Pathologists.

Avian Diseases↗

USGS2010

Catalogue of polar bear (Ursus maritimus) maternal den locations in the Beaufort Sea and neighboring regions, Alaska, 1910–2010

This report presents data on the approximate locations and methods of discovery of 392 polar bear ( Ursus maritimus ) maternal dens found in the Beaufort Sea and neighboring regions between 1910 and 2010 that are archived by the U.S. Geological Survey, Alaska Science Center, Anchorage, Alaska. A description of data collection methods, biases associated with collection method, primary time periods, and spatial resolution are provided. Polar bears in the Beaufort Sea and nearby regions den on both the sea ice and on land. Standardized VHF surveys and satellite radio telemetry data provide a general understanding of where polar bears have denned in this region over the past 3 decades. Den observations made during other research activities and anecdotal reports from other government agencies, coastal residents, and industry personnel also are reported. Data on past polar bear maternal den locations are provided to inform the public and to provide information for natural resource agencies in planning activities to avoid or minimize interference with polar bear maternity dens.

Alaska↗

USGS2010

Arctic sea ice decline: Projected changes in timing and extent of sea ice in the Bering and Chukchi Seas

The Arctic region is warming faster than most regions of the world due in part to increasing greenhouse gases and positive feedbacks associated with the loss of snow and ice cover. One consequence has been a rapid decline in Arctic sea ice over the past 3 decades?a decline that is projected to continue by state-of-the-art models. Many stakeholders are therefore interested in how global warming may change the timing and extent of sea ice Arctic-wide, and for specific regions. To inform the public and decision makers of anticipated environmental changes, scientists are striving to better understand how sea ice influences ecosystem structure, local weather, and global climate. Here, projected changes in the Bering and Chukchi Seas are examined because sea ice influences the presence of, or accessibility to, a variety of local resources of commercial and cultural value. In this study, 21st century sea ice conditions in the Bering and Chukchi Seas are based on projections by 18 general circulation models (GCMs) prepared for the fourth reporting period by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2007. Sea ice projections are analyzed for each of two IPCC greenhouse gas forcing scenarios: the A1B `business as usual? scenario and the A2 scenario that is somewhat more aggressive in its CO2 emissions during the second half of the century. A large spread of uncertainty among projections by all 18 models was constrained by creating model subsets that excluded GCMs that poorly simulated the 1979-2008 satellite record of ice extent and seasonality. At the end of the 21st century (2090-2099), median sea ice projections among all combinations of model ensemble and forcing scenario were qualitatively similar. June is projected to experience the least amount of sea ice loss among all months. For the Chukchi Sea, projections show extensive ice melt during July and ice-free conditions during August, September, and October by the end of the century, with high agreement among models. High agreement also accompanies projections that the Chukchi Sea will be completely ice covered during February, March, and April at the end of the century. Large uncertainties, however, are associated with the timing and amount of partial ice cover during the intervening periods of melt and freeze. For the Bering Sea, median March ice extent is projected to be about 25 percent less than the 1979-1988 average by mid-century and 60 percent less by the end of the century. The ice-free season in the Bering Sea is projected to increase from its contemporary average of 5.5 months to a median of about 8.5 months by the end of the century. A 3-month longer ice- free season in the Bering Sea is attained by a 1-month advance in melt and a 2-month delay in freeze, meaning the ice edge typically will pass through the Bering Strait in May and January at the end of the century rather than June and November as presently observed.

Alaska↗