Search USGS⌕ Search

Geology topics

David C. Douglas

Publications and source records attributed to David C. Douglas.

At least 109 records · Page 6Linked to original sources
USGS2010

Divergent movements of walrus and sea ice in the northern Bering Sea

The Pacific walrus Odobenus rosmarus divergens is a large Arctic pinniped of the Chukchi and Bering Seas. Reductions of sea ice projected to occur in the Arctic by mid-century raise concerns for conservation of the Pacific walrus. To understand the significance of sea ice loss to the viability of walruses, it would be useful to better understand the spatial associations between the movements of sea ice and walruses. We investigated whether local-scale (~1 to 100 km) walrus movements correspond to movements of sea ice in the Bering Sea in early spring, using locations from radio-tracked walruses and measures of ice floe movements from processed synthetic aperture radar satellite imagery. We used generalized linear mixed-effects models to analyze the angle between walrus and ice floe movement vectors and the distance between the final geographic position of walruses and their associated ice floes (displacement), as functions of observation duration, proportion of time the walrus was in water, and geographic region. Analyses were based on 121 walrus-ice vector pairs and observations lasting 12 to 36 h. Angles and displacements increased with observation duration, proportion of time the walrus spent in the water, and varied among regions (regional mean angles ranged from 40° to 81° and mean displacements ranged from 15 to 35 km). Our results indicated a lack of correspondence between walruses and their initially associated ice floes, suggesting that local areas of walrus activities were independent of the movement of ice floes.

Marine Ecology Progress Series↗
USGS2010

Potential spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 by wildfowl: dispersal ranges and rates determined from large-scale satellite telemetry

1. Migratory birds are major candidates for long-distance dispersal of zoonotic pathogens. In recent years, wildfowl have been suspected of contributing to the rapid geographic spread of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus. Experimental infection studies reveal that some wild ducks, geese and swans shed this virus asymptomatically and hence have the potential to spread it as they move. 2. We evaluate the dispersive potential of HPAI H5N1 viruses by wildfowl through an analysis of the movement range and movement rate of birds monitored by satellite telemetry in relation to the apparent asymptomatic infection duration (AID) measured in experimental studies. We analysed the first large-scale data set of wildfowl movements, including 228 birds from 19 species monitored by satellite telemetry in 2006–2009, over HPAI H5N1 affected regions of Asia, Europe and Africa. 3. Our results indicate that individual migratory wildfowl have the potential to disperse HPAI H5N1 over extensive distances, being able to perform movements of up to 2900 km within timeframes compatible with the duration of asymptomatic infection. 4. However, the likelihood of such virus dispersal over long distances by individual wildfowl is low: we estimate that for an individual migratory bird there are, on average, only 5–15 days per year when infection could result in the dispersal of HPAI H5N1 virus over 500 km. 5. Staging at stopover sites during migration is typically longer than the period of infection and viral shedding, preventing birds from dispersing a virus over several consecutive but interrupted long-distance movements. Intercontinental virus dispersion would therefore probably require relay transmission between a series of successively infected migratory birds. 6. Synthesis and applications . Our results provide a detailed quantitative assessment of the dispersive potential of HPAI H5N1 virus by selected migratory birds. Such dispersive potential rests on the assumption that free-living wildfowl will respond analogously to captive, experimentally-infected birds, and that asymptomatic infection will not alter their movement abilities. Our approach of combining experimental exposure data and telemetry information provides an analytical framework for quantifying the risk of spread of avian-borne diseases.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2010

Understanding the potential dispersal of HPAI H5N1 virus by migratory wildfowl

We analysed wildfowl movements between 2006-2009, including 228 birds from 19 species, part of a larger international programme (see Figure 1) coordinated by the Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) of the United Nations aimed at understanding if there are temporal or spatial relationships between HPAI H5N1 outbreaks and movements of migratory wildfowl, the first large scale data set available for such an analysis.

Argos Forum↗
USGS2009

Satellite-marked waterfowl reveal migratory connection between H5N1 outbreak areas in China and Mongolia

The role of wild birds in the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 has been greatly debated and remains an unresolved question. However, analyses to determine involvement of wild birds have been hindered by the lack of basic information on their movements in central Asia. Thus, we initiated a programme to document migrations of waterfowl in Asian flyways to inform hypotheses of H5N1 transmission. As part of this work, we studied migration of waterfowl from Qinghai Lake, China, site of the 2005 H5N1 outbreak in wild birds. We examined the null hypothesis that no direct migratory connection existed between Qinghai Lake and H5N1 outbreak areas in central Mongolia, as suggested by some H5N1 phylogeny studies. We captured individuals in 2007 from two of the species that died in the Qinghai Lake outbreaks and marked them with GPS satellite transmitters: Bar-headed Geese Anser indicus (n = 14) and Ruddy Shelduck Tadorna ferruginea (n = 11). Three of 25 marked birds (one Goose and two Shelducks) migrated to breeding grounds near H5N1 outbreak areas in Mongolia. Our results describe a previously unknown migratory link between the two regions and offer new critical information on migratory movements in the region. ?? 2009 British Ornithologists' Union.

Ibis↗
USGS2009

Migration of whooper swans and outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 virus in Eastern Asia

Evaluating the potential involvement of wild avifauna in the emergence of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 (hereafter H5N1) requires detailed analyses of temporal and spatial relationships between wild bird movements and disease emergence. The death of wild swans (Cygnus spp.) has been the first indicator of the presence of H5N1 in various Asian and European countries; however their role in the geographic spread of the disease remains poorly understood. We marked 10 whooper swans (Cygnus cygnus) with GPS transmitters in northeastern Mongolia during autumn 2006 and tracked their migratory movements in relation to H5N1 outbreaks. The prevalence of H5N1 outbreaks among poultry in eastern Asia during 2003-2007 peaked during winter, concurrent with whooper swan movements into regions of high poultry density. However outbreaks involving poultry were detected year round, indicating disease perpetuation independent of migratory waterbird presence. In contrast, H5N1 outbreaks involving whooper swans, as well as other migratory waterbirds that succumbed to the disease in eastern Asia, tended to occur during seasons (late spring and summer) and in habitats (areas of natural vegetation) where their potential for contact with poultry is very low to nonexistent. Given what is known about the susceptibility of swans to H5N1, and on the basis of the chronology and rates of whooper swan migration movements, we conclude that although there is broad spatial overlap between whooper swan distributions and H5N1 outbreak locations in eastern Asia, the likelihood of direct transmission between these groups is extremely low. Thus, our data support the hypothesis that swans are best viewed as sentinel species, and moreover, that in eastern Asia, it is most likely that their infections occurred through contact with asymptomatic migratory hosts (e.g., wild ducks) at or near their breeding grounds.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2009

Predicting 21st-century polar bear habitat distribution from global climate models

Projections of polar bear (Ursus maritimus) sea ice habitat distribution in the polar basin during the 21st century were developed to understand the consequences of anticipated sea ice reductions on polar bear populations. We used location data from satellitecollared polar bears and environmental data (e.g., bathymetry, distance to coastlines, and sea ice) collected from 1985 to 1995 to build resource selection functions (RSFs). RSFs described habitats that polar bears preferred in summer, autumn, winter, and spring. When applied to independent data from 1996 to 2006, the RSFs consistently identified habitats most frequently used by polar bears. We applied the RSFs to monthly maps of 21st-century sea ice concentration projected by 10 general circulation models (GCMs) used in the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, under the A1B greenhouse gas forcing scenario. Despite variation in their projections, all GCMs indicated habitat losses in the polar basin during the 21st century. Losses in the highest-valued RSF habitat (optimal habitat) were greatest in the southern seas of the polar basin, especially the Chukchi and Barents seas, and least along the Arctic Ocean shores of Banks Island to northern Greenland. Mean loss of optimal polar bear habitat was greatest during summer; from an observed 1.0 million km 2 in 1985-1995 (baseline) to a projected multi-model mean of 0.32 million km 2 in 2090-2099 (-68% change). Projected winter losses of polar bear habitat were less: from 1.7 million km 2 in 1985-1995 to 1.4 million km 2 in 2090-2099 (-17% change). Habitat losses based on GCM multi-model means may be conservative; simulated rates of habitat loss during 1985-2006 from many GCMs were less than the actual observed rates of loss. Although a reduction in the total amount of optimal habitat will likely reduce polar bear populations, exact relationships between habitat losses and population demographics remain unknown. Density and energetic effects may become important as polar bears make long-distance annual migrations from traditional winter ranges to remnant high-latitude summer sea ice. These impacts will likely affect specific sex and age groups differently and may ultimately preclude bears from seasonally returning to their traditional ranges.

Ecological Monographs↗
USGS2009

Movements of juvenile Gyrfalcons from western and interior Alaska following departure from their natal areas

J uvenile raptors often travel thousands of kilometers from the time they leave their natal areas to the time they enter a breeding population. Documenting movements and identifying areas used by raptors before they enter a breeding population is important for understanding the factors that influence their survival. In North America, juvenile Gyrfalcons ( Falco rusticolus ) are routinely observed outside the species' breeding range during the nonbreeding season, but the natal origins of these birds are rarely known. We used satellite telemetry to track the movements of juvenile Gyrfalcons during their first months of independence. We instrumented nestlings with lightweight satellite transmitters within 10 d of estimated fledging dates on the Seward Peninsula in western Alaska and in Denali National Park (Denali) in interior Alaska. Gyrfalcons spent an average of 41.4 ± 6.1 d (range = 30–50 d) in their natal areas after fledging. The mean departure date from natal areas was 27 August ± 6.4 d. We tracked 15 individuals for an average of 70.5 ± 28.1 d post-departure; Gyrfalcons moved from 105 to 4299 km during this period and tended to move greater distances earlier in the tracking period than later in the tracking period. Gyrfalcons did not establish temporary winter ranges within the tracking period. We identified several movement patterns among Gyrfalcons, including unidirectional long-distance movements, multidirectional long- and short-distance movements, and shorter movements within a local region. Gyrfalcons from the Seward Peninsula remained in western Alaska or flew to eastern Russia with no movements into interior Alaska. In contrast, Gyrfalcons from Denali remained in interior Alaska, flew to northern and western Alaska, or flew to northern Alberta. Gyrfalcons from both study areas tended to move to coastal, riparian, and wetland areas during autumn and early winter. Because juvenile Gyrfalcons dispersed over a large geographic area and across three international boundaries, conservation efforts should focus on both regional and international scales.

Journal of Raptor Research↗
USGS2009

Rebuttal of "Polar bear population forecasts: a public-policy forecasting audit"

Observed declines in the Arctic sea ice have resulted in a variety of negative effects on polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ). Projections for additional future declines in sea ice resulted in a proposal to list polar bears as a threatened species under the United States Endangered Species Act. To provide information for the Department of the Interior's listing-decision process, the US Geological Survey (USGS) produced a series of nine research reports evaluating the present and future status of polar bears throughout their range. In response, Armstrong et al. [Armstrong, J. S., K. C. Green, W. Soon. 2008. Polar bear population forecasts: A public-policy forecasting audit. Interfaces 38 (5) 382–405], which we will refer to as AGS, performed an audit of two of these nine reports. AGS claimed that the general circulation models upon which the USGS reports relied were not valid forecasting tools, that USGS researchers were not objective or lacked independence from policy decisions, that they did not utilize all available information in constructing their forecasts, and that they violated numerous principles of forecasting espoused by AGS. AGS (p. 382) concluded that the two USGS reports were "unscientific and inconsequential to decision makers." We evaluate the AGS audit and show how AGS are mistaken or misleading on every claim. We provide evidence that general circulation models are useful in forecasting future climate conditions and that corporate and government leaders are relying on these models to do so. We clarify the strict independence of the USGS from the listing decision. We show that the allegations of failure to follow the principles of forecasting espoused by AGS are either incorrect or are based on misconceptions about the Arctic environment, polar bear biology, or statistical and mathematical methods. We conclude by showing that the AGS principles of forecasting are too ambiguous and subjective to be used as a reliable basis for auditing scientific investigations. In summary, we show that the AGS audit offers no valid criticism of the USGS conclusion that global warming poses a serious threat to the future welfare of polar bears and that it only serves to distract from reasoned public-policy debate.

Interfaces↗
USGS2009

Geographic variation in Bar-headed geese Anser indicus: connectivity of wintering and breeding grounds across a broad front

The connectivity and frequency of exchange between sub-populations of migratory birds is integral to understanding population dynamics over the entire species' range. True geese are highly philopatric and acquire lifetime mates during the winter, suggesting that the number of distinct sub-populations may be related to the number of distinct wintering areas. In the Bar-headed Goose Anser indicus, a species found exclusively in Central Asia, the connectivity between breeding and wintering areas is not well known. Their migration includes crossing a broad front of the Himalaya Cordillera, a significant barrier to migration for most birds. Many Bar-headed Geese fly to breeding areas on the Tibetan-Qinghai Plateau (TQP), the highest plateau in the world. From 2005-2008, 60 Bar-headed Geese were captured and marked with satellite transmitters in Nepal (n = 2), India (n = 6), China (n = 29), and Mongolia (n = 23) to examine their migration and distribution. Distinct differences were observed in their migration corridors and timing of movements, including an apparent leap-frog migration pattern for geese from Mongolia. Measurements of geese from Mongolia were larger than their counterparts from China, providing some evidence of morphological differences. Alteration of habitats in China, including the warming effects of climate change on glaciers increasing runoff to TQP wetlands, may be changing goose migration patterns and timing. With the exception of one individual, all geese from Qinghai Lake, China wintered in the southern TQP near Lhasa, and their increasing numbers in that region may be related to the effects of climate change and agricultural development. Thus, our findings document both morphological and geographical variation in sub-populations of Bar-headed Geese, but their resilience to environmental change may be lost if migratory short-stopping results in larger congregations restricted to a smaller number of wintering areas.

Wildfowl↗
USGS2008

Extreme endurance flights by landbirds crossing the Pacific Ocean: Ecological corridor rather than barrier?

Mountain ranges, deserts, ice fields and oceans generally act as barriers to the movement of land-dependent animals, often profoundly shaping migration routes. We used satellite telemetry to track the southward flights of bar-tailed godwits (Limosa lapponica baueri), shorebirds whose breeding and non-breeding areas are separated by the vast central Pacific Ocean. Seven females with surgically implanted transmitters flew non-stop 8117-11680km (10153??1043 s.d.) directly across the Pacific Ocean; two males with external transmitters flew non-stop along the same corridor for 7008-7390km. Flight duration ranged from 6.0 to 9.4 days (7.8??1.3 s.d.) for birds with implants and 5.0 to 6.6 days for birds with externally attached transmitters. These extraordinary non-stop flights establish new extremes for avian flight performance, have profound implications for understanding the physiological capabilities of vertebrates and how birds navigate, and challenge current physiological paradigms on topics such as sleep, dehydration and phenotypic flexibility. Predicted changes in climatic systems may affect survival rates if weather conditions at their departure hub or along the migration corridor should change. We propose that this transoceanic route may function as an ecological corridor rather than a barrier, providing a wind-assisted passage relatively free of pathogens and predators. ?? 2008 The Royal Society.

Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sci↗
USGS2008

Fluctuating Arctic Sea ice thickness changes estimated by an in situ learned and empirically forced neural network model

Sea ice thickness (SIT) is a key parameter of scientific interest because understanding the natural spatiotemporal variability of ice thickness is critical for improving global climate models. In this paper, changes in Arctic SIT during 1982-2003 are examined using a neural network (NN) algorithm trained with in situ submarine ice draft and surface drilling data. For each month of the study period, the NN individually estimated SIT of each ice-covered pixel (25-km resolution) based on seven geophysical parameters (four shortwave and longwave radiative fluxes, surface air temperature, ice drift velocity, and ice divergence/convergence) that were cumulatively summed at each monthly position along the pixel's previous 3-yr drift track (or less if the ice was <3 yr old). Average January SIT increased during 1982-88 in most regions of the Arctic (+7.6 ?? 0.9 cm yr-1), decreased through 1996 Arctic-wide (-6.1 ?? 1.2 cm yr-1), then modestly increased through 2003 mostly in the central Arctic (+2.1 ?? 0.6 cm yr-1). Net ice volume change in the Arctic Ocean from 1982 to 2003 was negligible, indicating that cumulative ice growth had largely replaced the estimated 45 000 km3 of ice lost by cumulative export. Above 65??N, total annual ice volume and interannual volume changes were correlated with the Arctic Oscillation (AO) at decadal and annual time scales, respectively. Late-summer ice thickness and total volume varied proportionally until the mid-1990s, but volume did not increase commensurate with the thickening during 1996-2002. The authors speculate that decoupling of the ice thickness-volume relationship resulted from two opposing mechanisms with different latitudinal expressions: a recent quasi-decadal shift in atmospheric circulation patterns associated with the AO's neutral state facilitated ice thickening at high latitudes while anomalously warm thermal forcing thinned and melted the ice cap at its periphery. ?? 2008 American Meteorological Society.

Journal of Climate↗
USGS2008

Seasonal movements and migration of Pallas's Gulls Larus ichthyaetus from Qinghai Lake, China

We studied the seasonal movements and migration often Pallas's Gulls Larus ichthyaetus trom Qinghai Lake to assess migratory routes and stopover areas. Each individual was captured and equipped with an 18 g solar-powered Platform Transmitter Terminal (PIT) to track its movements from September 2007 to May 2008. Six individuals remained near Qinghai Lake until the PTTs stopped transmitting. Three individuals flew 50-330 km from Qinghai Lake to nearby salt lakes. One individual departed on 8 December and flew over 1,700 km south-west to arrive at coastal Bangladesh on 9 January 2008. Two individuals flew in October to the Brahmaputra River in Assam, India, remaining in the area for at least one month until one stopped transmitting. The second individual travelled southwest to coastal Bangladesh. Of the two individuals overwintering in Bangladesh, one remained for 67 days before migrating north. The second bird departed after 96 days, and it returned to Qinghai on 10 May 2008 after 48 days in migration. Both individuals that overwintered in coastal Bangladesh arrived much later than the outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HP AI H5N I) in poultry in 2007. This disparity in timing would tentatively suggest that this species was not involved in long-distance movements of the virus. Instead, the converse may be true: previous work demonstrates the potential for virus spill-over trom poultry into gulls and other wild bird species upon arrival into locations with widespread HPAI H5NI outbreaks and environmental contamination.

Forktail↗
USGS2007

Landward and eastward shift of Alaskan polar bear denning associated with recent sea ice changes

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the northern Alaska region den in coastal areas and on offshore drifting ice. We evaluated changes in the distribution of polar bear maternal dens between 1985 and 2005, using satellite telemetry. We determined the distribution of maternal dens occupied by 89 satellite collared female polar bears between 137&deg;W and 167&deg;W longitude. The proportion of dens on pack ice declined from 62% in 1985&ndash;1994 to 37% in 1998&ndash;2004 ( P = 0.044) and among pack ice dens fewer occurred in the western Beaufort Sea after 1998. We evaluated whether hunting, attraction to bowhead whale remains, or changes in sea ice could explain changes in den distribution. We concluded that denning distribution changed in response to reductions in stable old ice, increases in unconsolidated ice, and lengthening of the melt season. In consort, these changes have likely reduced the availability and quality of pack ice denning habitat. Further declines in sea ice availability are predicted. Therefore, we expect the proportion of polar bears denning in coastal areas will continue to increase, until such time as the autumn ice retreats far enough from shore that it precludes offshore pregnant females from reaching the Alaska coast in advance of denning.

Alaska↗
USGS2007

North to Alaska: Evidence for conveyor belt transport of Dungeness crab larvae along the west coast of the United States and Canada

We propose and evaluate the hypothesis that Dungeness crab ( Cancer magister ) larvae from the northwestern coast of the United States and Canada can be transported northward to southeastern Alaska. Larvae collected in southeastern Alaska during May and June 1997&ndash;2004 had abundances and stages that varied seasonally, interannually, and spatially. An unexpected presence of late-stage larvae in spring raises a question regarding their origin, and the most plausible explanation is that they hatched off the northern Washington and British Columbia coasts and were transported to southeastern Alaska. Buoy drift tracks support the hypothesis that larvae released off the northern Washington and British Columbia coasts during the peak hatching season can be physically transported to southeastern Alaska, arriving as late-stage larvae in May and June, when local larvae are only beginning to hatch. A northward spring progression of monthly mean 7&deg;C SST isotherms and phytoplankton blooms provide further evidence that environmental conditions are conducive for larval growth and metabolism during the transport period. The proposed larval transport suggests possible unidirectional gene flow between southern and northern populations of Dungeness crabs in southeastern Alaska.

Limnology and Oceanography↗
USGS2006

A model for autumn pelagic distribution of adult female polar bears in the Chukchi Seas, 1987-1994

We made predictions of polar bear (Ursus maritimus) autumn distribution in the Chukchi Sea with a Resource Selection Function (RSF) developed from 1198 satellite radio-collar locations on 124 adult female polar bears, 1987 &ndash; 1994. The RSF was created to assist in an aerial survey design for polar bears proposed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. The RSF was based on bathymetry and daily sea ice covariates extracted from passive microwave satellite imagery within the pelagic region > 25 km from shore. The RSF indicated that polar bears selected habitats with intermediate amounts (~50%) of ice cover in close proximity to higher ice concentrations, and over relatively shallow waters. The RSF showed good predictive abilities for the years of its construct, worked best in October, and was robust to inter-annual variability. When evaluated with recent (1997 &ndash; 2005) data, the RSF performed well for October and November but poorly in September. This loss of predictive abilities appeared to be related to recent changes in habitat due to longer melt seasons and younger sea ice, and testing the retrospective model with a small sample of recent polar bears locations from a limited region of the Chukchi Sea. Contemporary applications of this RSF must consider three factors that could limit its utility: 1) 2 different sea ice phenology; 2) distributions of males and sub-adults; and 3) occupancy in nearshore habitats.

Report↗
USGS2006

Polar bear research in Alaska

Since the 13 th Working Meeting of the Polar Bear Specialist Group the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has seen the completion of many research projects and the start of many new ones. Much has been accomplished and yet we have new challenges awaiting us. This report summarises our focal questions and progress in those areas.

Occasional Papers of the IUCN Species Survival Com↗
USGS2005

Spatial and temporal variations in the age structure of Arctic sea ice

Spatial and temporal variations in the age structure of Arctic sea ice are investigated using a new reverse chronology algorithm that tracks ice-covered pixels to their location and date of origin based on ice motion and concentration data. The Beaufort Gyre tends to harbor the oldest (>10 years old) sea ice in the western Arctic while direct ice advection pathways toward the Transpolar Drift Stream maintain relatively young (10 years old (10+ year age class) were observed during 1989-2003. Since the mid-1990s, losses to the 10+ year age class lacked compensation by recruitment due to a prior depletion of all mature (6-10 year) age classes. Survival of the 1994 and 1996-1998 sea ice generations reestablished most mature age classes, and thereby the potential to increase extent of the 10+ year age class during the mid-2000s.

Geophysical Research Letters↗