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At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2024

Effects and perceptions of weather, climate, and climate change on outdoor recreation and nature-based tourism in the United States: A systematic review

Weather, climate, and climate change all effect outdoor recreation and tourism, and will continue to cause a multitude of effects as the climate warms. We conduct a systematic literature review to better understand how weather, climate, and climate change affect outdoor recreation and nature-based tourism across the United States. We specifically explore how the effects differ by recreational activity, and how visitors and supply-side tourism operators perceive these effects and risks. The 82 papers reviewed show the complex ways in which weather, climate, and climate change may affect outdoor recreation, with common themes being an extended season to participate in warm-weather activities, a shorter season to participate in snow-dependent activities, and larger negative effects to activities that depend on somewhat consistent precipitation levels (e.g., snow-based recreation, water-based recreation, fishing). Nature-based tourists perceive a variety of climate change effects on tourism, and some recreationists have already changed their behavior as a result of climate change. Nature-based tourism suppliers are already noticing a wide variety of climate change effects, including shifts in seasonality of specific activities and visitation overall. Collectively, this review provides insights into our current understanding of climate change and outdoor recreation and opportunities for future research.

PLOS Climate↗
USGS2025

The mountains are calling, but will visitors go? Modeling the effect of weather and air quality on visitation to Pacific Northwest parks and protected areas using mobile device data

We investigated how visitors to federal, state, and local parks and protected areas (PPAs) respond to weather and air quality conditions in the Pacific Northwest (PNW), United States. Specifically, we modeled the relationship between weekly visitation and mean weekly minimum and maximum temperature, precipitation, Air Quality Index (AQI), and particulate matter 2.5 concentration (PM2.5, often used as an indicator of wildfire smoke) during an extended peak visitation season from 2017 to 2021 in 91 PNW PPAs. We used mobile device data from StreetLight Data Inc. to estimate weekly vehicular visitation. Our findings indicate that increasing precipitation corresponded with decreased weekly visitation to all three types of PPAs and rising minimum temperatures corresponded with increased visitation. We found that rising maximum temperatures corresponded with increased visitation in federal and local PPAs, but corresponded with decreased visitation in local PPAs once temperatures reach a maximum threshold. We did not observe a maximum threshold effect in federal or state settings. Further, we found that the effect of air quality and smoke on visitation varies based on the metric used: increased PM2.5 concentrations (possibly indicating the presence of wildfire smoke) in federal and local PPAs corresponded with decreased visitation, while increased AQI in federal PPAs corresponded with increased visitation. These findings indicate that visitors may respond differently to different types of air pollution. Our results have implications for adapting peak- and shoulder- season visitor use management to current and future climate change within and beyond PPAs of the PNW.

Idaho, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2023

Climate impacts to inland fishes: Shifting research topics over time

Climate change remains a primary threat to inland fishes and fisheries. Using topic modeling to examine trends and relationships across 36 years of scientific literature on documented and projected climate impacts to inland fish, we identify ten representative topics within this body of literature: assemblages, climate scenarios, distribution, climate drivers, population growth, invasive species, populations, phenology, physiology, and reproduction. These topics are largely similar to the output from artificial intelligence application (i.e., ChatGPT) search prompts, but with some key differences. The field of climate impacts on fish has seen dramatic growth since the mid-2000s with increasing popularity of topics related to drivers, assemblages, and phenology. The topics were generally well-dispersed with little overlap of common words, apart from phenology and reproduction which were closely clustered. Pairwise comparisons between topics revealed potential gaps in the literature including between reproduction and distribution and between physiology and phenology. A better understanding of these relationships can help capitalize on existing literature to inform conservation and sustainable management of inland fishes with a changing climate.

PLOS Climate↗
USGS2025

Watershed forest cover and habitat restoration can offset some negative impacts of climate change on freshwater fishes and mussels

Many species of freshwater fishes and freshwater mussels have experienced population declines over the past century due to threats including habitat degradation, overexploitation, species invasion, and climate change. Management actions may offset climate-related changes to biodiversity, although identifying appropriate strategies is challenging. Our goal was to identify the impacts of climate change on freshwater biota (i.e., fish and mussel) distribution and management actions that may offset the climate change impacts across the northeastern United States. We used land use, geography, stream temperature, and streamflow variables to predict species distribution in a baseline scenario, climate change scenario, and several climate change plus land use management scenarios. We found climate change negatively impacted (i.e., reduced the probability of occurrence of) coldwater fishes and reduced the relative occurrence probability of fluvial specialist and coolwater fishes compared to other species. Increasing watershed forest cover best offset these negative impacts and minimized the predicted transition from coldwater fish dominance to warmwater fish dominance in coldwater habitats; however, no intervention fully offset the negative impacts of climate change on vulnerable fish groups (i.e., coldwater and fluvial specialist fishes). Climate change negatively impacted all vulnerable groups of mussels (e.g., lotic species, drying intolerant) and mussel species richness. Combining multiple management interventions (e.g., increase forest cover, dam removal, etc.) had the greatest potential to offset the negative impacts of climate change for freshwater mussels and fishes. This study provides managers a comparison of management interventions across a landscape to combat the impacts of climate change on biota in streams and rivers.

Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, ↗
USGS2024

Polar paleoenvironmental perspectives on modern climate change

In today’s rapidly changing climate, society needs a better understanding of climate impacts on sea level, ice sheets and glaciers, sea ice, ocean circulation, ecosystems, biodiversity, and other aspects of planet Earth. Paleoenvironmental records provide a unique and invaluable source of insight into these complex issues, and place recent observations into a broader historical context. This essay discusses why paleoclimate reconstructions from polar regions provide critical information to help anticipate possible future climate impacts. By highlighting some key research examples, this essay explains the value of expanding proxy-based research in Arctic/Antarctic regions, and makes a case for paying greater attention to the lessons already distilled from it.

PLOS Climate↗
USGS2024

Temperature impacts on dengue incidence are nonlinear and mediated by climatic and socioeconomic factors: A meta-analysis

Temperature can influence mosquito-borne diseases like dengue. These effects are expected to vary geographically and over time in both magnitude and direction and may interact with other environmental variables, making it difficult to anticipate changes in response to climate change. Here, we investigate global variation in temperature–dengue relationship by analyzing published correlations between temperature and dengue and matching them with remotely sensed climatic and socioeconomic data. We found that the correlation between temperature and dengue was most positive at intermediate (near 24°C) temperatures, as predicted from an independent mechanistic model. Positive temperature–dengue associations were strongest when temperature variation and population density were high and decreased with infection burden and rainfall mean and variation, suggesting alternative limiting factors on transmission. Our results show that while climate effects on diseases are context-dependent they are also predictable from the thermal biology of transmission and its environmental and social mediators.

PLOS Climate↗
USGS2023

Visitation to national parks in California shows annual and seasonal change during extreme drought and wet years

This study examines the influence of drought indicators on recreational visitation patterns to National Park Service units in California (USA) from 1980 to 2019. We considered mountain, arid, and coastal park types across a climate gradient where seasonal recreational opportunities are directly or indirectly dependent on water resources. Significant departures from the normal hydroclimate, reflected by drought or unusually wet conditions, can lead visitors to change their behavior, including recreating at a different time or place. Drought conditions can facilitate earlier seasonal access at higher elevation parks, but displace visitors in other seasons and parks. Wetter-than-average conditions can displace visitors due to snowpack or flooding, but also facilitate other activities. We found a decrease in annual visitation at popular mountain parks including Yosemite (-8.6%) and Sequoia and Kings Canyon (-8.2%) during extreme drought years due to lower-than-average attendance in peak summer and fall months. Extreme wet years also had significantly reduced annual visitation in Sequoia and Kings (-8.5%) and Lassen Volcanic (-13.9%) due to declines in spring and summer use as snowpack restricts road access. For arid parks, drought status did not have a statistically significant effect on annual visitation, although extreme drought led to less use during the hottest months of summer at Death Valley, and extreme wet conditions at Pinnacles led to less visitation throughout the year (-16.6%), possibly from impacts to infrastructure associated with flooding. For coastal park units, extreme drought led to year-round higher levels of use at Redwood (+27.7%), which is typically wet, and less year-round use at Channel Islands (-23.6%), which is relatively dry, while extreme wet years led to higher levels of annual use at Channel Islands (+29.4%). Collectively, these results indicate the effect of extreme drought or wet years on park visitation varies by park depending on geography and recreational activities offered.

California↗
USGS2024

Quantifying and evaluating strategies to decrease carbon dioxide emissions generated from tourism to Yellowstone National Park

The tourism industry needs strategies to reduce emissions and hasten the achievement of global carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emission reduction targets. Using a case study approach, we estimated CO 2 emissions related to park tourism in Yellowstone National Park (USA) generated from transit to and from the park, transit within the park, accommodations, and park operations. Results indicate tourism to Yellowstone National Park produces an estimated 1.03 megaton (1.03 billion kg) of CO 2 -equivalent emissions annually, with an average of 479 kg CO 2 per visitor. Almost 90% of these emissions were attributable to transit to and from the destination, while 5% were from transit within the park, 4% from overnight accommodations, and about 1% from other park operations (e.g., visitor centers, museums, shops, restaurants, etc.). Visitors who fly only made up about 35% of all visitors, but produced 72% of the emissions related to transit to and from the park. Future scenarios that alter transit to and from the park can reduce emissions the most; this includes a greater proportion of local or regional visitors, fewer visitors flying, and increased fuel efficiency of vehicles. The method developed in this work, and applied specifically to Yellowstone National Park, can be adopted elsewhere and used to help decision makers evaluate the effectiveness of potential emission reduction strategies.

Wyoming↗
USGS2025

Autumn as an overlooked opportunity for limnology

Ecological disciplines, from forestry to soil sciences and ornithology, recognize the critical role of autumn in an array of physical and biological processes. Terrestrial studies categorize autumn as the end of the growing season. Autumn weather conditions can disrupt plant-soil interactions, affecting nutrient cycling and soil fertility [1]; determine dormancy and freezing tolerance of trees during winter [2]; and create phenological mismatches that affect diet quality and predator-prey relationships [3]. In many lakes, autumn is marked by an important period of flux within the water column, affecting nutrient cycling, phytoplankton, and fish productivity [4]. Despite their importance, autumnal limnological processes remain understudied.

PLOS Climate↗
USGS2016

Managing climate change refugia for climate adaptation

Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2012

A plant distribution shift: temperature, drought or past disturbance?

Simple models of plant response to warming climates predict vegetation moving to cooler and/or wetter locations: in mountainous regions shifting upslope. However, species-specific responses to climate change are likely to be much more complex. We re-examined a recently reported vegetation shift in the Santa Rosa Mountains, California, to better understand the mechanisms behind the reported shift of a plant distribution upslope. We focused on five elevational zones near the center of the gradient that captured many of the reported shifts and which are dominated by fire-prone chaparral. Using growth rings, we determined that a major assumption of the previous work was wrong: past fire histories differed among elevations. To examine the potential effect that this difference might have on the reported upward shift, we focused on one species, Ceanothus greggii : a shrub that only recruits post-fire from a soil stored seedbank. For five elevations used in the prior study, we calculated time series of past per-capita mortality rates by counting growth rings on live and dead individuals. We tested three alternative hypotheses explaining the past patterns of mortality: 1) mortality increased over time consistent with climate warming, 2) mortality was correlated with drought indices, and 3) mortality peaked 40–50 years post fire at each site, consistent with self-thinning. We found that the sites were different ages since the last fire, and that the reported increase in the mean elevation of C. greggii was due to higher recent mortality at the lower elevations, which were younger sites. The time-series pattern of mortality was best explained by the self-thinning hypothesis and poorly explained by gradual warming or drought. At least for this species, the reported distribution shift appears to be an artifact of disturbance history and is not evidence of a climate warming effect.

California↗
USGS2024

Experimental changes in food and ectoparasites affect dispersal timing in juvenile burrowing owls

Natal dispersal is a key demographic trait that affects population dynamics, and intraspecific variation in dispersal affects gene flow among populations and source-sink dynamics. However, relatively little is known about the selective pressures and trade-offs that animals face when departing their natal area due to the logistical difficulties associated with monitoring animals during this critical life stage. We used a randomized block design to examine the selective pressure that influence dispersal timing in juvenile burrowing owls ( Athene cunicularia ) by experimentally altering both food and ectoparasites at 135 nests. We also examined the effects of local food abundance, ectoparasite loads, and parental departure on natal dispersal timing. Juvenile burrowing owls varied widely in natal dispersal timing, and phenotypic plasticity in dispersal timing was evident in juvenile owls’ response to our experimental treatments, local conditions, and their parents’ departure from the natal area. Moreover, juveniles responded differently than their parents to experimental manipulation of food and ectoparasite loads. Juveniles typically dispersed shortly after their parents departed the natal area, but delayed dispersing more than 2 weeks after parental departure if they did not receive experimental food supplements during a low-food year. In contrast, the experimental food supplements did not affect the migratory departure decisions of adult owls in either year. Juveniles at nests treated for ectoparasites initiated dispersal at a younger age (and prior to adults in the high-food year) compared to juveniles at control nests. In contrast, parents at nests treated for ectoparasites departed later than parents at control nests. Our results suggest that unfavorable conditions (low food or high ectoparasite loads) caused juveniles to delay dispersal, but prompted adults to depart sooner. Our results highlight the extent of intraspecific variation in natal dispersal timing, and demonstrate that ecological conditions affect dispersal decisions of parents and offspring differently, which can create important trade-offs that likely affect life history strategies and responses to climatic changes.

Washington↗
USGS2019

Temporal changes in avian community composition in lowland conifer habitats at the southern edge of the boreal zone in the Adirondack Park, NY

Climate change represents one of the most significant threats to human and wildlife communities on the planet. Populations at range margins or transitions between biomes can be particularly instructive for observing changes in biological communities that may be driven by climate change. Avian communities in lowland boreal habitats in the Adirondack Park, located at the North American boreal-temperate ecotone, have been the focus of long-term monitoring efforts since 2007. By documenting long-term changes in community structure and composition, such datasets provide an opportunity to understand how boreal species are responding differently to climate change, and which habitat characteristics may be best able to retain boreal avian communities. We examined three specific questions in order to address how well current biological communities in Adirondack boreal wetland habitats are being maintained in a changing climate: (1) how do trends in occupancy vary across species, and what guilds or characteristics are associated with increasing or decreasing occupancy? (2) how is avian community composition changing differently across sites, and (3) what distinguishes sites which are retaining boreal birds to a higher degree than other sites? Our analysis revealed that (1) boreal species appear to exhibit the largest changes in occupancy among our study locations as compared to the larger avian community, (2) dynamics of community change are not uniform across sites and habitat structure may play an important role in driving observed changes, and (3) the particular characteristics of large open peatlands may allow them to serve as refugia for boreal species in the context of climate change.

New York↗
USGS2016

Exploring climate niches of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex Lawson) haplotypes in the western United States: Implications for evolutionary history and conservation

Ponderosa pine ( Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex Lawson) occupies montane environments throughout western North America, where it is both an ecologically and economically important tree species. A recent study using mitochondrial DNA analysis demonstrated substantial genetic variation among ponderosa pine populations in the western U.S., identifying 10 haplotypes with unique evolutionary lineages that generally correspond spatially with distributions of the Pacific ( P . p . var. ponderosa ) and Rocky Mountain ( P . p . var. scopulorum ) varieties. To elucidate the role of climate in shaping the phylogeographic history of ponderosa pine, we used nonparametric multiplicative regression to develop predictive climate niche models for two varieties and 10 haplotypes and to hindcast potential distribution of the varieties during the last glacial maximum (LGM), ~22,000 yr BP. Our climate niche models performed well for the varieties, but haplotype models were constrained in some cases by small datasets and unmeasured microclimate influences. The models suggest strong relationships between genetic lineages and climate. Particularly evident was the role of seasonal precipitation balance in most models, with winter- and summer-dominated precipitation regimes strongly associated with P . p . vars. ponderosa and scopulorum , respectively. Indeed, where present-day climate niches overlap between the varieties, introgression of two haplotypes also occurs along a steep clinal divide in western Montana. Reconstructed climate niches for the LGM suggest potentially suitable climate existed for the Pacific variety in the California Floristic province, the Great Basin, and Arizona highlands, while suitable climate for the Rocky Mountain variety may have existed across the southwestern interior highlands. These findings underscore potentially unique phylogeographic origins of modern ponderosa pine evolutionary lineages, including potential adaptations to Pleistocene climates associated with discrete temporary glacial refugia. Our predictive climate niche models may inform strategies for further genetic research (e.g., sampling design) and conservation that promotes haplotype compatibility with projected changes in future climate.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2013

Present, future, and novel bioclimates of the San Francisco, California region

Bioclimates are syntheses of climatic variables into biologically relevant categories that facilitate comparative studies of biotic responses to climate conditions. Isobioclimates, unique combinations of bioclimatic indices (continentality, ombrotype, and thermotype), were constructed for northern California coastal ranges based on the Rivas-Martinez worldwide bioclimatic classification system for the end of the 20th century climatology (1971–2000) and end of the 21st century climatology (2070–2099) using two models, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) model and the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), under the medium-high A2 emission scenario. The digitally mapped results were used to 1) assess the relative redistribution of isobioclimates and their magnitude of change, 2) quantify the loss of isobioclimates into the future, 3) identify and locate novel isobioclimates projected to appear, and 4) explore compositional change in vegetation types among analog isobioclimate patches. This study used downscaled climate variables to map the isobioclimates at a fine spatial resolution −270 m grid cells. Common to both models of future climate was a large change in thermotype. Changes in ombrotype differed among the two models. The end of 20th century climatology has 83 isobioclimates covering the 63,000 km2 study area. In both future projections 51 of those isobioclimates disappear over 40,000 km2. The ordination of vegetation-bioclimate relationships shows very strong correlation of Rivas-Martinez indices with vegetation distribution and composition. Comparisons of vegetation composition among analog patches suggest that vegetation change will be a local rearrangement of species already in place rather than one requiring long distance dispersal. The digitally mapped results facilitate comparison with other Mediterranean regions. Major remaining challenges include predicting vegetation composition of novel isobioclimates and developing metrics to compare differences in climate space.

California↗
USGS2013

Estimating age ratios and size of Pacific walrus herds on coastal haulouts using video imaging

During Arctic summers, sea ice provides resting habitat for Pacific walruses as it drifts over foraging areas in the eastern Chukchi Sea. Climate-driven reductions in sea ice have recently created ice-free conditions in the Chukchi Sea by late summer causing walruses to rest at coastal haulouts along the Chukotka and Alaska coasts, which provides an opportunity to study walruses at relatively accessible locations. Walrus age can be determined from the ratio of tusk length to snout dimensions. We evaluated use of images obtained from a gyro-stabilized video system mounted on a helicopter flying at high altitudes (to avoid disturbance) to classify the sex and age of walruses hauled out on Alaska beaches in 2010–2011. We were able to classify 95% of randomly selected individuals to either an 8- or 3-category age class, and we found measurement-based age classifications were more repeatable than visual classifications when using images presenting the correct head profile. Herd density at coastal haulouts averaged 0.88 walruses/m 2 (std. err. = 0.02), herd size ranged from 8,300 to 19,400 (CV 0.03–0.06) and we documented ~30,000 animals along ~1 km of beach in 2011. Within the herds, dependent walruses (0–2 yr-olds) tended to be located closer to water, and this tendency became more pronounced as the herd spent more time on the beach. Therefore, unbiased estimation of herd age-ratios will require a sampling design that allows for spatial and temporal structuring. In addition, randomly sampling walruses available at the edge of the herd for other purposes (e.g., tagging, biopsying) will not sample walruses with an age structure representative of the herd. Sea ice losses are projected to continue, and population age structure data collected with aerial videography at coastal haulouts may provide demographic information vital to ongoing efforts to understand effects of climate change on this species.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2024

Same streams in a different forest? Investigations of forest harvest legacies and future trajectories across 30 years of stream habitat monitoring on the Tongass National Forest, Alaska

The effects of timber harvest practices and climate change have altered forest ecosystems in southeast Alaska. However, quantification of patterns and trends in stream habitats associated with these forests is limited owing to a paucity of data available in remote watersheds. Here, we analyzed a 30-year dataset from southeast Alaska's Tongass National Forest to understand how these factors shape stream habitats. First, we examined differences between broad management classes (i.e., harvested and non-harvested) that have been used to guide stream channel restoration goals. Second, we assessed associations between intrinsic landscape characteristics, watershed management, and timber harvest legacies on aquatic habitat metrics. And third, we examined trends in stream habitat metrics over the duration of the dataset to anticipate future management challenges for these systems. Small effect sizes for some harvest-related predictors suggest that some stream habitat metrics, such as pool densities, are less responsive than others, and management practices such as protecting riparian buffers as well as post-harvest restoration may help conserve fish habitats. Large wood densities increased with time since harvest at sites harvested >50 years ago, indicating that multiple decades of post-harvest forest regrowth may contribute large wood to streams (possibly alder), but that it is not enough time for old-growth trees (e.g., spruce, Picea, or hemlock, Tsuga,), classified as key wood, to develop and be delivered to streams. The declining trend in key wood (i.e., the largest size class of wood) regardless of management history may reflect that pre-harvest legacy old-growth trees are declining along streams, with low replacement. The introduction of wood to maintain complex stream habitats may fill this gap until riparian stands again contribute structural key wood to streams. Trend analyses indicate an increasing spatial extent of undercut banks that may also be influenced by shifting hydrologic regimes under climate change.

Alaska↗
USGS2011

Comparative phylogeography of a coevolved community: Concerted population expansions in Joshua trees and four Yucca moths

Comparative phylogeographic studies have had mixed success in identifying common phylogeographic patterns among co-distributed organisms. Whereas some have found broadly similar patterns across a diverse array of taxa, others have found that the histories of different species are more idiosyncratic than congruent. The variation in the results of comparative phylogeographic studies could indicate that the extent to which sympatrically-distributed organisms share common biogeographic histories varies depending on the strength and specificity of ecological interactions between them. To test this hypothesis, we examined demographic and phylogeographic patterns in a highly specialized, coevolved community - Joshua trees (Yucca brevifolia) and their associated yucca moths. This tightly-integrated, mutually interdependent community is known to have experienced significant range changes at the end of the last glacial period, so there is a strong a priori expectation that these organisms will show common signatures of demographic and distributional changes over time. Using a database of >5000 GPS records for Joshua trees, and multi-locus DNA sequence data from the Joshua tree and four species of yucca moth, we combined paleaodistribution modeling with coalescent-based analyses of demographic and phylgeographic history. We extensively evaluated the power of our methods to infer past population size and distributional changes by evaluating the effect of different inference procedures on our results, comparing our palaeodistribution models to Pleistocene-aged packrat midden records, and simulating DNA sequence data under a variety of alternative demographic histories. Together the results indicate that these organisms have shared a common history of population expansion, and that these expansions were broadly coincident in time. However, contrary to our expectations, none of our analyses indicated significant range or population size reductions at the end of the last glacial period, and the inferred demographic changes substantially predate Holocene climate changes.

PLoS ONE↗