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USGS2024

Observing systems, modeling, and forecasting

Predicting harmful algal blooms (HABs) requires integrating physical, chemical, and biological data collected from observing networks and then assimilating these data into models, which are used to generate forecasts. In 2005, the Harmful Algal Research and Response: A National Environmental Science Strategy 2005-2015 (HARRNESS, 2005) made recommendations on how to improve HAB modeling and forecasting over the next decade. Key HARRNESS recommendations related to sensing, networking, and modeling HABs included: ● Support the development and validation of new and improved technologies for remote cell and toxin detection, and for modeling and forecasting, ● Improve coordination of monitoring/ and modeling efforts, both at national and regional levels, ● Improve the use of networking technologies for monitoring and modeling efforts, ● Conduct sustained time series measurements of the biotic, chemical, and physical environments impacted by HABs, ● Develop food web models on the ecosystem fate and effects of toxins, ● Develop and improve species-specific models that link to physical-biological models. Here we review HAB observing, modeling, and forecasting advances and technologies and recommend research and management priorities for the next decade and beyond. Our report encompasses sensing technologies, sensor networking and data management, models and forecasts, and the paths to operationalize forecasts. Continued improvements of deployable sensors are foundational to improving early warning indicators, models, and forecasts, which are only as good as the underlying data. Sensing technology has advanced considerably in the last decade; for example, more capable fluorometric pigment sensors can track changes in bloom biomass in real-time. Additionally, automated imaging/classifying systems to identify and quantify key harmful algal (HA) taxa are being routinely deployed. However, deployable toxin sensors are available for only some HAB toxins and continue to be identified as a critical need by researchers and managers. As more and improved sensors and technologies become available, the data quality associated with each sensor needs to be assessed. Data quality encompasses the reliability, accuracy, and uncertainty associated with sensor-generated data. These data need to be of known quality so that researchers, managers, and end-users can reliably determine if the information is appropriate for their intended applications. Many of the data quality recommendations from HARRNESS (2005) are still relevant and have been reiterated within the management community. Understanding and documenting data quality, and when applicable, standardizing best practices for sensor use, continue to be recommended.

Report↗

USGS2017

Science programs in Kansas

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is a non-regulatory Earth science agency within the Department of the Interior that provides impartial scientific information to describe and understand the health of our ecosystems and environment; minimize loss of life and property from natural disasters; manage water, biological, energy, and mineral resources; and enhance and protect our quality of life. The USGS cooperates with Federal, State, tribal, and local agencies in Kansas to deliver long-term data in real-time and interpretive reports describing what those data mean to the public and resource management agencies. USGS science programs in Kansas provide real-time groundwater monitoring at more than 19 locations; streamflow monitoring at more than 216 locations; water-quality and trends in the Little Arkansas and Kansas Rivers; inflows and outflows of sediment to/from reservoirs and in streams; harmful algal bloom research in the Kansas River, Milford Lake, and Cheney Reservoir; water-quantity and water-quality effects of artificial groundwater recharge for the Equus Beds Aquifer Storage and Recovery project near Wichita, Kansas; compilation of Kansas municipal and irrigation water-use data statewide; the occurrence, effects, and movement of environmental pesticides, antibiotics, algal toxins, and taste-and-odor compounds; and funding to the Kansas Water Resources Research Institute to further research and education through Kansas universities.

Kansas↗

USGS2016

Cultivation of a native alga for biomass and biofuel accumulation in coal bed methane production water

Coal bed methane (CBM) production has resulted in thousands of ponds in the Powder River Basin of low-quality water in a water-challenged region. A green alga isolate, PW95, was isolated from a CBM production pond, and analysis of a partial ribosomal gene sequence indicated the isolate belongs to the Chlorococcaceae family. Different combinations of macro- and micronutrients were evaluated for PW95 growth in CBM water compared to a defined medium. A small level of growth was observed in unamended CBM water (0.15 g/l), and biomass increased (2-fold) in amended CBM water or defined growth medium. The highest growth rate was observed in CBM water amended with both N and P, and the unamended CBM water displayed the lowest growth rate. The highest lipid content (27%) was observed in CBM water with nitrate, and a significant level of lipid accumulation was not observed in the defined growth medium. Growth analysis indicated that nitrate deprivation coincided with lipid accumulation in CBM production water, and lipid accumulation did not increase with additional phosphorus limitation. The presented results show that CBM production wastewater can be minimally amended and used for the cultivation of a native, lipid-accumulating alga.

Montana, Wyoming↗

USGS2021

Effect of temperature, nitrate concentration, pH and bicarbonate addition on biomass and lipid accumulation in the sporulating green alga PW95

The mixed effects of temperature (20 °C, 25 °C and 30 °C), nitrate concentration (0.5 mM and 2.0 mM), pH buffer, and bicarbonate addition (trigger) on biomass growth and lipid accumulation were investigated in the environmental alga PW95 during batch experiments in standardized growth medium. PW95 was isolated from coal-bed methane production water and classified as a Chlamydomonas -like species by morphological characterization and phylogenetic analysis (18S, ITS, rbc L). A factorial experimental design tested the mixed effects on PW95 before and after nitrate depletion to determine a low cost, high efficiency combination of treatments for biomass growth and lipid accumulation. Results showed buffer addition affected growth for most of the treatments and bicarbonate trigger had no statistically significant effect on growth and lipid accumulation. PW95 displayed the highest growth rate and chlorophyll content at 30 °C and 2.0 mM nitrate and there was an inverse relation between biomass accumulation and lipid accumulation at the extremes of nitrate concentration and temperature. The combination of higher temperature (30 °C) and lower nitrate level (0.5 mM) without the use of a buffer or bicarbonate addition resulted in maximal daily biomass accumulation (5.30 × 10 6 cells/mL), high biofuel potential before and after nitrate depletion (27% and 20%), higher biofuel productivity (16 and 15 mg/L/d, respectively), and desirable fatty acid profiles (saturated and unsaturated C16 and C18 chains). Our results indicate an important interaction between low nitrate levels, temperature, and elevated pH for trade-offs between biomass and lipid production in PW95. This work serves as a model to approach and advance the study of physiological responses of novel microalgae to diverse culture conditions that mimic environmental changes for outdoor biofuel production. The most promising conditions for growth and biofuel production were identified for PW95 and this approach can be implemented for other microalgal production systems.

Algal Research↗

USGS2021

Domoic acid and saxitoxin in seabirds in the United States between 2007 and 2018

As harmful algal blooms (HABs) increase in magnitude and duration worldwide, they are becoming an expanding threat to marine wildlife. Over the past decade, blooms of algae that produce the neurotoxins domoic acid (DA) and saxitoxin (STX) and documented concurrent seabird mortality events have increased bicoastally in the United States. We conducted a retrospective analysis of HAB related mortality events in California, Washington, and Rhode Island between 2007 and 2018 involving 12 species of seabirds, to document the levels, ranges, and patterns of DA and STX in eight sample types (kidney, liver, stomach, intestinal, cloacal, cecal contents, bile, blood) collected from birds during these events. Samples ( n = 182 ) from 83 birds were examined for DA ( n = 135) or STX ( n = 17) or both toxins simultaneously ( n = 30), using ELISA or LCMS at the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service (NOAA-NMFS) Wildlife Algal-toxin Research and Response Network (WARRN-West) or the University of California, Santa Cruz (UCSC). DA or STX was detected in seven of the sample types with STX below the minimum detection limit in blood for the three samples tested. DA was found in 70% and STX was found in 23% of all tested samples. The ranges of detectable levels of DA and STX in all samples were 0.65–681,190.00 ng g −1 and 2.00–20.95 ng g −1 , respectively. Cloacal contents from a Pacific loon ( Gavia pacifica ) collected in 2017 from Ventura County, California, had the highest maximum level of DA for all samples and species tested in this study. The highest level of STX for all samples and species was detected in the bile of a northern fulmar ( Fulmarus glacialis ) collected in 2018 from San Luis Obispo County, California. DA detections were consistently found in gastrointestinal samples, liver, bile, and kidney, whereas STX detections were most frequently seen in liver and bile samples. Co-occurring HAB toxins (DA and STX) were detected in white-winged scoters ( Melanitta deglandi ) in 2009, a Brandt's cormorant ( Phalacrocorax penicillatus ) in 2015, and a northern fulmar and common murre ( Uria aalge ) in 2018. This article provides DA and STX tissue concentrations and patterns in avian samples and shows the utility of various sample types for the detection of HAB toxins. Future research to understand the pharmacodynamics of these toxins in avian species and to establish lethal doses in various bird species would be beneficial.

Harmful Algae↗

USGS2024

Economic losses to inland recreational fisheries from harmful algal blooms

This paper presents research on the recreational impacts of harmful algal blooms (HABs) and other water quality changes in the U.S. heartland. We examine the link between recreational fishing and water quality using a random utility model of reservoir choices, and data on effort and health-based advisories for reservoirs in Nebraska. We find that advisories linked specifically to algal blooms affect the demand for and value of fishing, and that these effects are heterogeneous. The estimated welfare loss at HAB-afflicted reservoirs is approximately $12 per trip, with larger losses experienced by gamefish-oriented and college-educated fishers.

Journal of Environmental Management↗

USGS2018

An initial validation of Landsat 5 and 7 derived surface water temperature for U.S. lakes, reservoirs, and estuaries

The United States Harmful Algal Bloom and Hypoxia Research Control Act of 2014 identified the need for forecasting and monitoring harmful algal blooms (HAB) in lakes, reservoirs, and estuaries across the nation. Temperature is a driver in HAB forecasting models that affects both HAB growth rates and toxin production. Therefore, temperature data derived from the U.S. Geological Survey Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper and Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus thermal band products were validated across 35 lakes and reservoirs, and 24 estuaries. In situ data from the Water Quality Portal (WQP) were used for validation. The WQP serves data collected by state, federal, and tribal groups. Discrete in situ temperature data included measurements at 11,910 U.S. lakes and reservoirs from 1980 through 2015. Landsat temperature measurements could include 170,240 lakes and reservoirs once an operational product is achieved. The Landsat-derived temperature mean absolute error was 1.34°C in lake pixels >180 m from land, 4.89°C at the land-water boundary, and 1.11°C in estuaries based on comparison against discrete surface in situ measurements. This is the first study to quantify Landsat resolvable U.S. lakes and reservoirs, and large-scale validation of an operational satellite provisional temperature climate data record algorithm. Due to the high performance of open water pixels, Landsat satellite data may supplement traditional in situ sampling by providing data for most U.S. lakes, reservoirs, and estuaries over consistent seasonal intervals (even with cloud cover) for an extended period of record of more than 35 years.

International Journal of Remote Sensing↗

USGS2008

Efficacy of algal metrics for assessing nutrient and organic enrichment in flowing waters

1. Algal-community metrics were calculated for periphyton samples collected from 976 streams and rivers by the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Programme during 1993–2001 to evaluate national and regional relations with water chemistry and to compare whether algal-metric values differ significantly among undeveloped and developed land-use classifications. 2. Algal metrics with significant positive correlations with nutrient concentrations included indicators of trophic condition, organic enrichment, salinity, motility and taxa richness. The relative abundance of nitrogen-fixing algae was negatively correlated with nitrogen concentrations, and the abundance of diatom species associated with high dissolved oxygen concentrations was negatively correlated with both nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations. Median algal-metric values and nutrient concentrations were significantly lower at undeveloped sites than those draining agricultural or urban catchments. 3. Total algal biovolume did not differ significantly among major river catchments or land-use classifications, and was only weakly correlated with nitrate (positive) and suspended-sediment (negative) concentrations. Estimates of periphyton chlorophyll a indicated an oligotrophic–mesotrophic boundary of about 21 mg m −2 and a mesotrophic–eutrophic boundary of about 55 mg m −2 based on upper and lower quartiles of the biovolume data distribution. 4. Although algal species tolerance to nutrient and organic enrichment is well documented, additional taxonomic and autecological research on sensitive, endemic algal species would further enhance water-quality assessments.

Freshwater Biology↗

USGS2024

Societal benefits of cyanobacteria harmful algal bloom management in Lake Okeechobee in Florida—Potential damages avoided during the 2018 event under U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Harmful Algal Bloom Interception, Treatment, and Transformation System scenarios

Freshwater harmful algal blooms (HABs) formed by blue-green algae, or cyanobacteria, have emerged as a global environmental problem. Their negative impacts on aquatic ecosystems can affect the benefits nature provides to human society by reducing water quality; inhibiting aquatic recreation; killing fish, wildlife, and pets; and posing a risk to human health. To manage harmful algal blooms, the Engineer Research and Development Center of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is developing an advanced technology called the Harmful Algal Bloom Interception, Treatment, and Transformation System (HABITATS), which has been tested in pilot demonstrations upstream of spillways at HAB-affected waterbodies in Florida. The U.S. Geological Survey and cooperators from the U.S. Department of the Interior Office of Policy Analysis investigated the societal benefits of HABITATS technology by using data from an actual 2018 harmful algal bloom in Lake Okeechobee to characterize the observed societal impacts and then comparing observed effects to hypothetical scenarios of HABITATS deployment. This study estimated an economic value of $5.5 million in foregone recreation as a result of closed boating ramp facilities and other restrictions on aquatic recreation such as fishing and swimming during the 2018 cyanobacteria harmful algal bloom outbreak. The change in housing sales prices that could have resulted from murky water or bad odor during that outbreak was estimated as $2.3 million. The team also investigated drinking water contamination and human illness but did not find significant societal impacts in this case. If HABITATS had been deployed, the avoided losses less the cost of management could have provided net societal benefits that ranged between negative $2.1 million and positive $0.8 million, depending on the vertical distribution of algae in the water column and the HABITATS version used. The study’s estimated societal benefit is undoubtedly a lower bound estimate because current scientific knowledge is inadequate to characterize, or monetize, all the impacts.

Florida↗

USGS2020

Nutrient status of San Francisco Bay and its management implications

Nutrient enrichment has degraded many of the world’s estuaries by amplifying algal production, leading to hypoxia/anoxia, loss of vascular plants and fish/shellfish habitat, and expansion of harmful blooms (HABs). Policies to protect coastal waters from the effects of nutrient enrichment require information to determine if a water body is impaired by nutrients and if regulatory actions are required. We compiled information to inform these decisions for San Francisco Bay (SFB), an urban estuary where the best path toward nutrient management is not yet clear. Our results show that SFB has high nutrient loadings, primarily from municipal wastewater; there is potential for high algal production, but that production is not fully realized; and SFB is not impaired by hypoxia or recurrent HABs. However, our assessment includes reasons for concern: nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations higher than those in other estuaries impaired by nutrient pollution, chronic presences of multiple algal toxins, a recent increase of primary production, and projected future hydroclimatic conditions that could increase the magnitude and frequency of algal blooms. Policymakers thus face the challenge of determining the appropriate protective policy for SFB. We identify three crucial next steps for meeting this challenge: (1) new research to determine if algal toxins can be reduced through nutrient management, (2) establish management goals as numeric targets, and (3) determine the magnitude of nutrient load reduction required to meet those targets. Our case study illustrates how scientific information can be acquired and communicated to inform policymakers about the status of nutrient pollution, its risks, and strategies for minimizing those risks.

California↗

USGS2022

Field testing a high-frequency acoustic attenuation system for measuring fine suspended sediments and algal movements

Acoustic measurements of suspended sediment have the potential to allow remote, autonomous monitoring of sediment movements at much higher temporal resolution than traditional manual sampling methods. Although suspended sands present a challenging measurement problem due to their logarithmic distribution with depth, fine clay sediments are distributed evenly throughout a stream cross section, making them amenable to point measurements. In order to improve measurement capabilities for fine sediments in stream channels, The National Center for Physical Acoustics at The University of Mississippi has developed a remote, autonomous acoustic system to monitor fine sediments transported in streams. The system was tested on the Middle Rio Grande near San Acacia, New Mexico, and in Goodwin Creek in Panola County, Mississippi. The acoustic instruments were compared to sediment concentrations from physical samples in both deployments. Diurnal patterns were found in the acoustic signals from the Middle Rio Grande, and a follow up experiment at The University of Mississippi Biological Field Station was used to investigate the potential effects of algal biomass on acoustic attenuation measurements. The results showed diurnal patterns in attenuation were associated with patterns in light, temperature, and dissolved oxygen. These results combined with information from the literature indicate diel movement of algal colonies in the water column of some water bodies may interfere with high-frequency acoustic measurements in natural environments and that acoustic methods have the potential to allow ecological researchers to evaluate mass algal movements in the field. Results from Goodwin Creek demonstrate that the acoustic system is able to provide measurements of sediment concentration with high temporal resolution that track well with expected sediment transport patterns in response to discharge hydrographs.

Applied Acoustics↗

USGS2026

Cyanobacteria Assessment Network: Pilot study with Sentinel-2 derived chlorophyll data

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) affect global water quality, limiting uses like recreation and consumption because of excessive algal biomass and toxin production. These blooms cause surface scums, taste and odor issues, hypoxia, and negative health and socioeconomic impacts. The US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) manages over 400 lakes and reservoirs and seeks to improve monitoring of HABs through Sentinel-2 (S2) satellite imagery. The purpose of this project is to develop workflows for a national chlorophyll-a product with 20 m spatial resolution, enabling HAB monitoring for over 270,000 lakes and reservoirs. The 1-year pilot study established a federal partnership to conduct preliminary S2 processing steps, using datasets from Florida, Ohio, and Oregon. Key steps included in situ data aggregation, data assimilation, S2 algorithm evaluation, spatial and temporal compositing, satellite sensor cross-validation, and web hosting of an example prototype product. The study covers 29 USACE reservoirs, with cross-validation using Sentinel-3 (S3) data from 212 lakes. The multiagency initiative aligns with federal agency missions to protect health and the environment, supports acts like the 2017 Harmful Algal Bloom and Hypoxia Research and Control Act, and has annual potential avoided costs of $42 million.

contiguous United States↗

USGS2013

Development and application of an agricultural intensity index to invertebrate and algal metrics from streams at two scales

Research was conducted at 28-30 sites within eight study areas across the United States along a gradient of nutrient enrichment/agricultural land use between 2003 and 2007. Objectives were to test the application of an agricultural intensity index (AG-Index) and compare among various invertebrate and algal metrics to determine indicators of nutrient enrichment nationally and within three regions. The agricultural index was based on total nitrogen and phosphorus input to the watershed, percent watershed agriculture, and percent riparian agriculture. Among data sources, agriculture within riparian zone showed significant differences among values generated from remote sensing or from higher resolution orthophotography; median values dropped significantly when estimated by orthophotography. Percent agriculture in the watershed consistently had lower correlations to invertebrate and algal metrics than the developed AG-Index across all regions. Percent agriculture showed fewer pairwise comparisons that were significant than the same comparisons using the AG-Index. Highest correlations to the AG-Index regionally were −0.75 for Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera richness (EPTR) and −0.70 for algae Observed/Expected (O/E), nationally the highest was −0.43 for EPTR vs. total nitrogen and −0.62 for algae O/E vs. AG-Index. Results suggest that analysis of metrics at national scale can often detect large differences in disturbance, but more detail and specificity is obtained by analyzing data at regional scales.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗

USGS2016

Food webs of the Delta, Suisun Bay and Suisun Marsh: an update on current understanding and possibilities for management

This paper reviews and highlights recent research findings on foodweb processes since an earlier review by Kimmerer et al. (2008). We conduct this review within a conceptual framework of the Delta-Suisun food web, which includes both temporal and spatial components. The temporal component is based on knowledge that the landscape has changed markedly from historical conditions. The spatial component of our framework acknowledges that the food web is not spatially static; it varies regionally and across habitat types within regions. The review highlights the idea of a changing baseline with respect to foodweb function. New research also indicates that interactions between habitat-specific food webs vary across the current landscape. For example, based on early work in the South Delta, the food web associated with submerged aquatic vegetation was thought to provide little support to species of concern; however, data from other regions of the estuary suggest that this conceptual model may not apply across the entire region. Habitat restoration has been proposed as a method of re-establishing historic foodweb processes to support species of concern. Benefits are likely for species that directly access such restored habitats, but are less clear for pelagic species. Several topics require attention to further improve the knowledge of food webs needed to support effective management, including: 1) synthesis of factors responsible for low pelagic biomass; 2) monitoring and research on effects of harmful algal blooms; 3) broadening the scope of long-term monitoring; 4) determining benefits of tidal wetland restoration to species of concern, including evaluations of interactions of habitat-specific food webs; and 5) interdisciplinary analysis and synthesis. The only certainty is that food webs will continue to change in response to the changes in the physical environment and new species invasions.

Californina↗

USGS2019

Phytoplankton community and algal toxicity at a recurring bloom in Sullivan Bay, Kabetogama Lake, Minnesota, USA

Kabetogama Lake in Voyageurs National Park, Minnesota, USA suffers from recurring late summer algal blooms that often contain toxin-producing cyanobacteria. Previous research identified the toxin microcystin in blooms, but we wanted to better understand how the algal and cyanobacterial community changed throughout an open water season and how changes in community structure were related to toxin production. Therefore, we sampled one recurring bloom location throughout the entire open water season. The uniqueness of this study is the absence of urban and agricultural nutrient sources, the remote location, and the collection of samples before any visible blooms were present. Through quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR), we discovered that toxin-forming cyanobacteria were present before visible blooms and toxins not previously detected in this region (anatoxin-a and saxitoxin) were present, indicating that sampling for additional toxins and sampling earlier in the season may be necessary to assess ecosystems and human health risk.

Minnesota↗

USGS2019

Microbial associations of four species of algal symbiont-bearing Foraminifers from the Florida Reef Tract, USA

While microbiome research is a rapidly expanding field of study, relatively little is known of the microbiomes associated with Foraminifera. This preliminary study investigated microbes associated with four species of Foraminifera, representing two taxonomic orders, which host three kinds of algal endosymbionts. A major objective was to explore potential influences on the microbiome composition, including phylogenetic relatedness among the host species, similarities in algal symbionts hosted, and environmental conditions from which the specimens were collected. Samples examined from two locations along the middle Florida Keys reef tract included 45 foraminiferal specimens and four environmental samples. Bacterial DNA extraction from individual specimens was followed by amplification and amplicon sequencing of the V4 variable region of the 16S rRNA gene; results were obtained from 21 specimens. The Order Miliolida, Family Soritidae, was represented by 5–8 specimens of each of three species: Archaias angulatus and Cyclorbiculina compressa , which both host chlorophyte symbionts, and Sorites orbiculus , which hosts dinoflagellate symbionts. Three Ar. angulatus specimens from which the microbiome was successfully sequenced shared 177 OTUs. Six C. compressa specimens successfully sequenced shared 58 OTUs, of which 31 were also shared by the three specimens of Ar. angulatus . Four successfully sequenced S. orbiculus specimens shared 717 unique OTUs. The 13 soritid specimens shared 26 OTUs, 23 of which represented Proteobacteria, predominantly of the bacterial family Rhodobacteraceae. The fourth foraminiferal species, Amphistegina gibbosa (Order Rotaliida) hosts diatom endosymbionts. Bacterial DNA extraction was attempted on 16 Am. gibbosa , including both normal-appearing and partly-bleached specimens. Only six OTUs, four of which represented Proteobacteria, were found in all eight specimens successfully sequenced. The partly bleached specimens shared nearly twice as many unique microbial OTUs (32) as the normal-appearing specimens (19). All Am. gibbosa specimens shared only four microbial OTUs with the soritid species, three of which may have been contaminants, indicating minimal commonality between the microbiomes of Am. gibbosa and the soritid taxa.

Florida↗

USGS2022

Detecting algal toxins and organic contaminants of concern in the environment

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Kansas Water Science Center Organic Geochemistry Research Laboratory (OGRL) was established in 1987. The OGRL is a multidisciplinary program that contributes knowledge about the distribution, fate, transport, and effects of new and understudied organic compounds that may affect human health and (or) ecosystems. The OGRL consists of two units: Algal and Other Environmental Toxins Unit and Environmental Organic Chemistry Unit. The OGRL does independent and collaborative research, develops robust analytical methods, and provides fee-for-service analytical laboratory analyses.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2022

Spatial and temporal variations in phosphorus loads in the Illinois River Basin, Illinois USA

Total phosphorus (TP) loads in many rivers in the north-central United States have increased, including the Illinois River at Valley City, Illinois, USA, which increased 39% from the periods 1989–1996 to 2015–2019 despite efforts to reduce loads from point and nonpoint sources. Here, we quantify long-term variations in phosphorus (P) loads in the Illinois River and its tributaries and identify factors that may be causing the variations. We calculated river loads of dissolved (DP) and particulate P (PP), total and volatile suspended solids (TSS and VSS), and other potentially related constituents at 41 locations. DP loads generally increased and PP and TSS loads generally decreased from 1989–1996 to 2015–2019. During 1989–1996, P accumulated in the lower basin between Marseilles and Valley City (excluding monitored tributaries). This portion of the basin is very flat and accumulates sediment. During 2015–2019, this section shifted from being a net sink to being a net source of P, accounting for 78% of the increased TP load at Valley City. We present evidence supporting several mechanisms that could have caused this shift: increased DP and chloride loads, reduced sulfate and nitrate concentrations influencing ionic strength and redox potential in the sediments, and increased VSS loads at Valley City possibly indicating greater algal production and contributing to hypoxia in lower river sediments. Additional research is needed to quantify the relative importance of these mechanisms.

Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin↗