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USGS2025

The effects of line simplification on planform geometry

Data on maps should retain accuracy regardless of scale. Yet, as cartographic lines are generalized, there can be impacts on properties such as topology, density, and planform geometry. Here, we investigate the use of the Scale Specific Sinuosity (S3) metric (Stanislawski et al., 2023) to evaluate the effects of line simplification on planform geometry, which is the bends of streams in map view. We employ an open-source Python S3 workflow to characterize the geometry of five diverse stream channels in the United States. The original data are extracted from the U.S. Geological Survey National Hydrography Dataset 1:24,000-scale vector data (U.S. Geological Survey, 2000) (Table 1), and the simplification is done using the Visvalingam and Whyatt method (2017) with a simplification tolerance of 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, and 2.0 km. The S3 analysis is calculated at each level of simplification and S3 derivatives are generated. Derivatives include measures of sinuosity, fractal dimension, and the dominant bend wavelength. The findings show that the change in planform geometry is scale-dependent, though simplification will have little effect on straighter lines. The change becomes more apparent in complex lines as the degree of simplification aligns with the scale of the dominant bend geometries. These logical conclusions are evidence that the S3 is a useful metric for automated characterization of bend geometry regardless of line complexity.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2025

Multi-temporal surface water mapping with high-resolution elevation and image data through weakly supervised deep learning

Monitoring the extent of surface water features (hydrography), accurately storing them in databases, and representing them on topographic maps are essential for various applications such as navigation and policy-making for legislative boundaries and permitting. In this context, hydrographic data includes features that generally have water present or image data showing signs that water is forming a terrain channel, and which would be included in 1:24,000 or larger scale topographic maps. In addition, reliable hydrographic data play a critical role to help manage environmental risks such as droughts, floods, fires, and landslides, as well as monitoring biological resources and pollutants. Inaccuracies in hydrography data can lead to modelling inaccuracies, resulting in economic, social, and environmental risks. However, generating sufficiently accurate high-resolution (HR) hydrography and terrain data for these purposes remains a substantial challenge primarily because of complex surface water dynamics and data handling limitations.

Alaska↗
USGS2025

Utilizing crystal records to determine the underlying architecture and timescales of magmatic processes during the 2022 Mauna Loa eruption

Details of Mauna Loa’s plumbing system and magma storage dynamics are relatively poorly constrained, relative to nearby Kīlauea volcano. Recent studies have begun to address this gap in knowledge using geophysical imaging or olivine-focused petrology. Here, we use the crystal cargo from the 2022 summit and Northeast Rift Zone eruption to advance our understanding of Mauna Loa’s storage regions and pre˗eruptive processes. We identify textural and geochemical populations of olivine, orthopyroxene, clinopyroxene, and plagioclase macrocrysts as well as evolved glomerocrysts consisting of orthopyroxene, clinopyroxene, and plagioclase. Summit versus rift zone trends can be distinguished between specific crystal populations and are used to infer magma transfer pathways. Melt inclusion barometry from three orthopyroxene populations indicate crystallization depths of ~2–3 km which coincide with previous olivine˗hosted fluid inclusion barometry across Mauna Loa’s recent 200˗yr eruptive history. We combine orthopyroxene˗hosted melt inclusion barometry with diffusion chronometry on the same crystals using Fe˗Mg interdiffusion to estimate timescales of mixing and recharge prior to the eruption. Summit orthopyroxene yield timescales of weeks to months, aligning with geophysically recognized pre˗eruptive intrusion events and previously determined olivine timescales. Northeast Rift Zone orthopyroxene crystals have resorbed cores and yield short pre˗eruptive mixing timescales on the order of hours to days. Chemistry and timescales from the orthopyroxene populations suggest some of the 2022 magmas may have bypassed the shallowest portions of the summit reservoir system and were transferred directly into the rift zone syn˗eruptively.

Hawaii↗
USGS2025

A U.S. scientific community vision for sustained earth observations of greenhouse gases to support local to global action

Managing carbon stocks in the land, ocean, and atmosphere under changing climate requires a globally-integrated view of carbon cycle processes at local and regional scales. The growing Earth Observation (EO) record is the backbone of this multi-scale system, providing local information with discrete coverage from surface measurements and regional information at global scale from satellites. Carbon flux information, anchored by inverse estimates from spaceborne Greenhouse Gas (GHG) concentrations, provides an important top-down view of carbon emissions and sinks, but currently lacks global continuity at assessment and management scales (< 100 km). Partial-column data can help separate signals in the boundary layer from the overlying atmosphere, providing an opportunity to enhance surface sensitivity and bring flux resolution down from that of column-integrated data (100–500 km). Based on a workshop held in September 2024, the carbon cycle community envisions a carbon observation system leveraging GHG partial columns in the lower and upper troposphere to weave together information across scales from surface and satellite EO data, and integration of top- down/bottom-up analyses to link process understanding to global assessment.

AGU Advances↗
USGS2025

The transition from melt accumulation to eruption initiation recorded by orthopyroxene Fe-Mg diffusion timescales in late Holocene rhyolites, South Sister volcano, Oregon Cascade Range

South Sister volcano, Oregon Cascade Range, USA, has repeatedly erupted rhyolite since ca. 40 ka. The youngest such eruptions are the ca. 2 ka Rock Mesa and Devils Chain rhyolites, erupted several hundred years apart from two multi-vent complexes separated by 3–6 km. Fe-Mg interdiffusion models of orthopyroxene rims from both rhyolites produce timescales up to several-thousand years, but dominantly decades-to-centuries. Notably, the timescales of step-normal zoned orthopyroxene rims (i.e., normally zoned with a steep chemical gradient) from the Rock Mesa rhyolite are longer than those of reversely zoned crystals, whereas the Devils Chain produced mostly decadal timescales for both zoning types. Despite the proximity and broadly similar products of these episodes, their respective timescales indicate distinct sequences of events leading up to each eruption. The Rock Mesa timescales record centuries of magma chamber growth followed by decades of predominantly magma rejuvenation, reorganization, and destabilization. In contrast, the Devils Chain episode was preceded by a single episode of coupled rhyolite extraction, rejuvenation, and hybridization. Rare, high-An plagioclase cores and evidence of reheating implicate cryptic emplacement of mafic magma at the base of the rhyolite reservoirs. However, the diffusion timescales do not unequivocally support a single magma recharge event that affected both. Fluid fluxing and the reorganization of melt into buoyant magma chambers likely provided the source of increasing pressurization that initiated each eruption after several decades. Geodetic models of ongoing deformation west of South Sister could consider these processes in addition to magma emplacement.

Oregon↗
USGS2025

Efficacy of oblique bubble screen deterrents on redirecting live eggs and larvae of grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella) at different developmental stages

Invasive carp have severely damaged aquatic ecosystems in the USA, particularly in the Mississippi River Basin. Behavioral deterrents have been developed in the last few decades to control population expansion into new ecosystems. However, none of these deterrents are capable of controlling early-life stage carp, which have limited or no mobility during their drifting stage in rivers. Capturing eggs and larvae in large numbers warrants new methods due to their distinct physical and biological properties as well as their lack of behavioral response. We tested a novel method to redirect downstream drifting eggs and larvae for their efficient removal in streams using an oblique bubble screen (OBS) deterrent. We investigated the effects of mean water velocity and airflow rate on redirection of eggs, pre-gas bladder inflation (GBI) larvae, near-GBI larvae, and dead larvae. Although similar OBS configurations had shown high efficacy redirecting plastic spheres (egg surrogates) in previous studies, they underperform redirecting live eggs and larvae. However, distinct patterns were identified for eggs, pre-GBI, near-GBI, and dead larvae. A detailed hydrodynamic analysis showed that eggs closely follow the larger scales of motions created by the OBS, and that larvae can actively respond to turbulence cues. This study yielded new insights into the movement of early-life stage grass carp in a turbulent flow with strong recirculation, and provided important data to improve the design of bubble screen dispersal barriers for invasive carp management and population control.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2025

A critical perspective on the Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry’s adherence to founding principles—Opportunities for the future

The Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) is a global organization whose mission is the advancement of environmental science and the promotion of science-informed decision making. On SETAC’s 45th anniversary, the following question was raised: Are the 1979 founding principles of SETAC, multidisciplinary approaches to solving environmental problems, multisector engagement and scientific objectivity, still relevant to the fulfillment of its mission? In a special session held at the 45th Annual Meeting in Fort Worth, Texas, U.S., a critical evaluation of the founding principles was initiated by reviewing SETAC’s history and ongoing activities, and recommendations were made for the future. With few exceptions, participants appreciated SETAC’s purposeful efforts to approach challenging environmental issues through multisector balance, an approach that is unique amongst scientific societies. We recognized that scientists have biases and views of what they find important, regardless of employing organization, and that objectivity is best served by being aware of these biases and views. SETAC’s founding principles have stood the test of time and continue to provide a strong foundation for the Society’s mission, and with a few suggested improvements, will continue to be instrumental in guiding environmental science, stewardship and policy into the future. The significance of SETAC’s contribution of robust science grounded in reliable evidence and data was recognized as being especially crucial at this time of triple planetary crisis (climate change, pollution and biodiversity loss), compounded by rapid technological developments and geopolitical issues.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗
USGS2025

Effects of ungulate browsing on forest assisted migration strategies to conserve ecosystem function

Forest managers recognize that proactive management strategies, such as forest assisted migration (FAM) of tree species, intended to accelerate the pace of forest adaptation, may be necessary to maintain resilient forests and combat the stressors of climate change. However, the impact of interactions between climate change and ungulate browsers of trees, both of which have profound effects on the landscape, on the success of FAM efforts is unknown. We used a forest landscape model (LANDIS-II) to simulate assisted migration and browsing by ungulate (white-tailed deer [ Odocoileus virginianus ]) populations on a northern Wisconsin (USA) landscape under alternate climate futures. After accounting for effects of FAM strategy and climate change scenario, simulated ungulate browsing reduced species richness and the proportion of the landscape with tree species preferred by browsers and resulted in more of the landscape developing into novel forest communities that supported fewer ecosystem goods and services. Our results suggest that managers may need to select FAM species less preferred by ungulates or use seedling protection measures to mitigate the negative effects of chronically high ungulate populations in efforts to transition future forests to sustain ecosystem goods and services.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2025

Multi-scale geophysical mapping of the brine and bedrock surfaces along the Dolores River, Paradox Valley, Colorado, December 2023

Total dissolved solids derived from salt dome–sourced brine in the underlying alluvial aquifer substantially increase with distance in the reach of the Dolores River that passes through Paradox Valley in southwestern Colorado. The area has been the site of salinity control operations since the 1990s to reduce salt loading to the downstream Colorado River. Previous airborne and ground/water-based electromagnetic (EM) geophysical data have successfully mapped the top of the brine surface, albeit with relatively coarse near-surface resolution and limited spatial coverage. This present December 2023 study used ground-based high-resolution EM and passive seismic (horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio, HVSR) tools to map in detail the depth and thickness of the brine zone in the alluvial aquifer (top of the brine down to bedrock contact) in areas immediately surrounding the Dolores River where previous airborne EM (AEM) results indicated brine within 10 m of land surface. Results indicate the deepest bedrock is generally associated with the shallowest brine and local depressions in the collapse breccia (caprock to the Paradox Formation salt) may facilitate vertical migration of brine into the alluvial aquifer. Additionally, the ground-based EM mapping corroborated general patterns in depth to brine that were observed in previous AEM results while also revealing additional detail, including suspected focused brine discharge zones to the Dolores River. A river-based survey wherein EM data, channel depth and river water–specific conductance information were collected augmented these findings and indicated specific areas on both the western and eastern sides of the river where focused brine discharge may occur. This study comprises a large-scale, ground- and water-based geophysical mapping effort, including hundreds of HVSR soundings and 100s of kilometres of EM data, which were successfully translated into digital brine and bedrock surfaces that could be incorporated into groundwater modelling efforts, future well siting or other decision-making.

Colorado↗
USGS2025

Long‐term effects of low‐drop grade control structures on channel evolution in the Yazoo River Basin

Channel incision is a widespread problem, especially in river basins that have an extensive history of channel alterations. Because channel incision causes large ecological and economic consequences, the prevention of continued migration of headcuts, defined as a steep change in stream gradient over a short reach, has been the focus of many stream engineering projects. Low-drop grade control structures (GCS) are a type of structure installed to halt the upstream movement of a headcut and were widely installed in the rivers and streams of the Yazoo River Basin in northern Mississippi. The goal of this study was to evaluate the long-term effects of these structures 30+ years post installation. To assess GCS effects on channel morphology, stream cross-section surveys were used to calculate Bank Height Ratio, Width-to-Depth Ratio, and Entrenchment Ratio, while point estimates made along each transect were used to calculate the average sediment size distribution for each of 30 sites. Analyses revealed that the GCS were successful in checking channel incision moving headward in the streams: sites upstream of the GCS were less incised and had greater accumulations of fine substrates compared to sites downstream and sites on streams lacking erosion control structures. Given the widespread use of GCS, these results can inform efforts aimed at managing channel incision.

Mississippi↗
USGS2025

A time-space model of graphite mineral systems

Increasing demand for graphite in energy storage systems warrants review of graphite ore genesis in a mineral systems framework. Orogenic graphite encompasses the metamorphic and orogenic mineral systems that produce flake graphite and hydrothermal vein (lump and chip) graphite deposits, respectively. A common feature of orogenic graphite deposits is an association with upper amphibolite- to granulite-facies metasedimentary rocks in continent-continent or continent-island arc collisional orogens. Orogenic flake graphite deposits form primarily through graphitization of organic carbon during regional metamorphism, but strain localization and partial melting of pelitic protoliths are likely important processes for graphite grade and quality enrichment. Orogenic vein graphite deposits precipitate from hydrothermal fluids, possibly derived from metamorphism or anatexis at depth. Decarbonation reactions in mixed calcareous-carbonaceous metasedimentary sequences are the most likely carbon sources for the veins. In contrast, intrusion-related graphite includes magmatic-hydrothermal and metamorphic mineral systems that form primarily in continental arc settings via the interaction of magmas with carbonaceous sedimentary packages. Magmatic-hydrothermal flake graphite deposits are hosted in plutonic and volcanic rocks, and result from the exsolution of CO 2 -CH 4 -rich fluids from melts contaminated by such packages. Contact metamorphism of carbonaceous sedimentary rocks by plutons produces some microcrystalline (amorphous) graphite deposits, including many in China. Compilation of geologic data from known graphite deposits globally suggests that pulses of carbon deposition in the Paleoproterozoic, Mesoproterozoic, and Neoproterozoic provided source carbon material. Subsequent supercontinent orogenesis at ca. 2,100 to 1,700 Ma (Columbia), ca. 1,300 to 1,000 Ma (Rodinia), and ca. 650 to 500 Ma (Gondwana) resulted in the genesis of orogenic flake and vein graphite deposits, where favorable geologic components overlapped with organic ± carbonate carbon-rich strata. Cryogenian deposition of graphite protoliths and Cryogenian – Cambrian metamorphic mineralization account for nearly 75% of all known resources globally and coincide with profound carbon isotope excursions and climate variability, implying a link with the global carbon budget. Comparatively few graphite deposits are associated with Pangea-forming orogens, attributed to less exhumation and/or denudation. High-temperature metasedimentary belts containing organic carbon-rich protoliths are most favorable for hosting orogenic flake graphite deposits, whereas sequences that also contain carbonate protoliths are favorable for orogenic graphite veins. Continent-scale orogenic belts may host both deposit types along with vanadium deposits. Use of a time-space mineral systems framework for graphite deposits can improve exploration models needed to ensure future supply of this critical mineral and provide insights into Earth’s long-term carbon cycle.

Mineralium Deposita↗
USGS2025

Post-wildfire sediment fluxes and turbidity plumes in a coastal-draining watershed

Coastal watersheds impacted by wildfires experience higher erosion resulting in increased sediment delivery to the ocean that alters limiting factors (i.e., light) for marine organisms. With increasing wildfire magnitude and severity, it is critical to explore changes in riverine discharges to the ocean to assess cascading hazards associated with wildfires. In situ data, remotely sensed turbidity data, and hydrological model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool “SWAT”) simulations have been adapted to capture and investigate fire-related land use change impacts on Malibu Creek, California, USA. Modifying SWAT land cover inputs using burn severity data had minimal impact on simulations, requiring additional parameterization for acceptable model performance. Remotely sensed turbidity, in situ discharge, rating curve sediment loads, and SWAT simulated discharge and sediment loads increased following the Woolsey Fire. When compared to in situ and rating curve data in similar non-fire water years, the 2019 Woolsey Fire water year in situ discharge was 1.8 times higher, SWAT simulated discharges were 1.4–1.7 times higher, and rating curve sediment load was 1.3 times higher. However, the SWAT simulated sediment loads were slightly lower (0.8–0.9 times) than rating curve sediment loads in similar non-fire water years. Mean coastal turbidity increased to 18.2 Formazin Nephelometric Unit (FNU) during the first storm post-fire (mean background value of 4.3 FNU). Synergies between methods demonstrated rapid coastal sediment exports (remote sensing) and ongoing erosion post-fire (SWAT). These data are essential to understanding fire-related marine ecological changes and implementing effective management and conservation initiatives.

California↗
USGS2025

Using gridded seismicity to forecast the long-term spatial distribution of earthquakes for the 2025 Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands National Seismic Hazard Model

Gridded (or background) seismicity models are a critical component of probabilistic seismic hazard assessments, accounting for off‐fault and smaller‐magnitude earthquakes. They are typically developed by declustering and spatially smoothing an earthquake catalog to estimate a long‐term seismicity rate that can be used to forecast future earthquakes. Here, we present new gridded seismicity models for use in the 2025 National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands (PRVI). The previous PRVI NSHM was released in 2003, and our new models incorporate updates to both data and methodology. We utilize an updated earthquake catalog based on improved Puerto Rico Seismic Network data with newly characterized completeness epochs. The catalog is divided into crustal, subduction interface, and intraslab seismicity using new methods and Slab2 subduction zone geometries. To forecast the long‐term spatial distribution of earthquakes, we use an updated methodology developed for the 2023 U.S. 50‐state NSHM, considering three declustering methods and two spatial smoothing methods based on 2D Gaussian kernels. To adapt it for the complex seismotectonics of the region, we also adopt probabilistic methods to account for events with unknown depths and uncertainties in tectonic classification, and develop a new method for spatial scaling to counteract the effects of spatial variability in network coverage while maintaining the use of smaller events. Finally, we test the performance of these spatial models in forecasting the location of M w ≥ 5earthquakes in the region. Our updated methodology improves the representation of epistemic uncertainty relative to the 2003 model, and our results demonstrate the effectiveness of the new measures we have introduced to address heterogeneities in network detection and systematically evaluate forecast performance.

Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands↗
USGS2025

Assessment of dragonfly and damselfly (Odonata) occupancy and habitat suitability at −12 Mile Slough, Glen Canyon National Recreation Area, Arizona

Management practices that enhance habitat complexity in dam tailwaters often aim to increase biodiversity and improve ecosystem health. However, in other instances, management practices may simplify habitat features to help minimize the establishment of invasive species. These tradeoffs are complex, particularly in the face of drought and warming water temperatures. In Glen Canyon National Recreation Area, a backwater known as −12 Mile Slough (henceforth the Slough), located 5-kilometers downstream from Glen Canyon Dam, is being considered for removal to reduce breeding habitat for warmwater nonnative fishes. In this report, the habitat suitability for and occupancy of dragonflies and damselflies (Odonata) at the Slough are assessed. U.S. Geological Survey staff conducted three site visits to the Colorado River in Glen Canyon, the Slough, and another backwater (“Frogwater”) on September 11–13, and 26, 2024. The physical habitat of the sampling sites was characterized by recording water temperatures, specific conductance, dissolved oxygen, turbidity, flow, depth, and benthic substratum size distribution. We sampled aquatic macroinvertebrates and riparian macroinvertebrates using benthic and aerial collection methods, respectively. We describe three distinct benthic aquatic invertebrate communities in and around the Slough, two of which contained Odonata. We found no Odonata larvae in the mainstem, at Frogwater, or in the Lower Slough. Using historic specimen data from the Museum of Northern Arizona, we report 8 species of damselflies from one family (Coenagrionidae) and 8 species of dragonflies from three families (Aeshnidae, Gomphidae, and Libellulidae) in Glen Canyon between 1985 and 2024. We discuss the habitat requirements of Odonata larvae known to occur in the Slough, as well as their cultural and recreational values. We conclude that channelization of the Slough to cool water temperatures may reduce larval Odonata habitat locally but is unlikely to affect their diversity and abundance on a regional scale.

Arizona↗
USGS2025

Advancements in satellite observations of inland and coastal waters: Building towards a global validation network

The use of satellite-based remote sensing imagery for water quality monitoring of inland and coastal waters has become widespread over the last few decades, with the expansion of, and investment in, operational Earth-observing missions. Satellite-based sensors are uniquely suited to provide synoptic, system-wide water quality parameter estimates that supplement traditional field-based sampling methods. The remote sensing of water quality parameter estimates is particularly valuable in systems with high temporal and spatial variability, as well as in areas that are difficult to access, or where agencies lack funding for routine monitoring. However, optically complex inland and coastal waters pose additional challenges for developing robust remote sensing retrieval models for optical properties and water quality parameters. One of the biggest challenges is collecting high quality field measurements that are used to calibrate and validate the retrieval algorithms. Here, we present the current status of satellite missions, field methods that include instruments used and commonly measured parameters, and repositories of historical field data that are relevant to inland and coastal water studies. We then present data requirements for model validation and highlight gaps in validation coverage. Finally, we provide suggestions for future field campaigns to improve coordination with remote sensing data collection and to ensure that field data is well suited for use in model or algorithm development.

Remote Sensing↗
USGS2025

Streamflow as a stressor: Disentangling hydrology and water quality impacts to characterize flow-ecology relationships for two stream assemblages across two southeastern landscapes

Disassociating the independent effects of flow and water quality on the ecology of flowing waters is an overarching goal in water resource science needed to improve the efficacy of watershed management. However, the interrelatedness of these gradients and their subsequent alteration due to land use change has constrained progress made on this front. The objective of this study was to use benthic macroinvertebrate and fish assemblage data to characterize flow-ecology relationships that were unchanged by water quality impacts across two southeastern landscapes in the USA to help detect ecological change driven by flow alteration. General linear latent models were used to identify taxa that were responsive to high or low flow metrics and water quality gradients. Bayesian hierarchical generalized additive models were then developed using these indicator taxa and three biological metrics to identify flow-specific relationships that were unaffected by water quality impacts. Three low flow-specific relationships were identified, illustrating how potential agricultural or urban impacts to hydrology reduced stream biological health. Importantly, flow-ecology relationships developed using indicator taxa in this study effectively captured hydrology-specific impacts while biological metrics typical of state monitoring and assessment programs did not. Therefore, developing flow-specific biological metrics is a critical step when developing management strategies targeting flow alteration. Implementing standardized frameworks such as the one characterized here can limit contradictory findings and improve streamflow enhancement and restoration project efficacy. These low flow-specific relationships will enhance managers' capacity to develop environmental flow standards, monitor their success, and better understand urban and agricultural impacts on stream assemblages.

Alabama↗
USGS2025

Similar population dynamics before and after a chytridiomycosis outbreak in a tropical riparian amphibian species

Emerging infectious diseases can cause rapid, widespread host mortality, and the lack of demographic data before and after pathogen emergence complicates understanding mechanisms of host persistence. This challenge is further compounded by environmental conditions that influence host behavior, while driving pathogen growth and virulence. These interactions create complex disease outcomes that hinder predictions of when and how hosts endure pathogen outbreaks. Here, we analyzed 10 years of capture-mark-recapture data (2000–2014) spanning wet and dry seasons for male Espadarana prosoblepon in El Copé, Panama, encompassing a period before (2000–2004) and after (2010–2014) a Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis ( Bd ) outbreak using Jolly-Seber models. We found that post- Bd male E. prosoblepon population size (range in mean population size among primary periods = 136–225 individuals) was similar to pre- Bd population size (range in mean population size among primary periods = 201–242 individuals). Pre- Bd , average monthly survival probability in the wet season was 0.93 (95% credible interval [CI] = 0.90–0.96). Post- Bd , uninfected individuals had survival probability higher in the wet season (mean = 0.97; [95% CI = 0.95–0.98]) than the dry season (mean = 0.90 [95% CI = 0.84–0.94]), while survival probability for infected individuals decreased as a function of Bd infection intensity. Pre- Bd , mean monthly per-capita entry probability was 0.07 (95% CI = 0.05–0.10), and post- Bd , mean monthly per-capita entry probability was 0.06 (95% CI = 0.00–0.10). Lastly, infection probability during the wet season was lower (mean = 0.04 [95% CI = 0.03–0.05]) than the dry season (mean = 0.10 [95% CI = 0.05–0.15]), and recovery probability during the wet season was lower (mean = 0.19 [95% CI = 0.11–0.28]) than the dry season (mean = 0.54 [95% CI = 0.20–0.88]). Our findings suggest that survival probabilities of uninfected individuals, as well as per-capita entry probabilities, are similar pre- and post- Bd , leading to a stable and similar sized pre- Bd population. These results contribute to understanding disease dynamics and tropical amphibian ecology.

Ecosphere↗
USGS2025

Offsetting the noise: A framework for applying phenological offset corrections in remotely sensed burn severity assessments

Background Phenological correction of pre- and post-fire imagery is used to improve remotely sensed burn severity evaluations. Unburned offset values standardize greenness between image pairs; however, efficacy across diverse scenarios remains underexplored. Aims We evaluated the impact of phenological offset correction methods to support analyst decision-making across fire-prone environments. Methods We generated burn severity spectral index values for a dataset of Composite Burn Index (CBI) field plots across the conterminous US. The effectiveness of offset corrections was tested across image selection techniques, spectral indices, offset generation methods and burn perimeter sources. We assessed the influence of offset corrections on the modeled relationship with CBI, agreement between burn severity thresholds and potential bias. Key results Applying offset corrections consistently improved the modeled relationship with CBI by addressing extreme outlier severity values. However, automated offset corrections had the potential to introduce bias, systematically lowering severity values and reducing correspondence with observed burn severity categories. Conclusions Offset corrections offer benefits but also present trade-offs to accurately representing remotely sensed burn severity. Implications The utility of offset corrections depends on the environment, methods and scale of analysis. We propose a decision-tree framework for analysts to consider when employing offset corrections given their study scope.

conterminous United States↗