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At least 1,531 records · Page 85Linked to original sources
USGS2025

Geologic map of the Guinevere Planitia quadrangle (V–30), Venus

This 1:5,000,000-scale geologic map of the Guinevere Planitia quadrangle divides the region into 15 geologic material units, defined using Magellan synthetic aperture radar (12.6-centimeter-wavelength radar system; 75 meters per pixel) datasets and including upland terrain units (2.4 percent of the surface area), plains materials units (59 percent), flow materials associated with named and unnamed eruptive centers (37.2 percent), small volcanic edifices, and impact crater materials (1.4 percent). Upland terrain units consist of tessera and lineated upland material, plains materials consist of Guinevere regional plains and Guinevere lineated and mottled plains, and flow materials consist of lobate flow material and plains-forming flow material. Specific lobate flows associated with Atanua Mons, Tuli Mons, Var Mons, and Uilata Fluctus are mapped separately. Other mapped units are impact crater material and small volcanic edifice. In addition to geologic units, we mapped linear features that show patterns of deformation or flow across the quadrangle. These consist of faults, wrinkle ridges, broad arches, channels, troughs, and flow direction indicators. The map region also contains several small volcanic features: shields, depressions, and craters. These, in combination with the plains, large volcanoes, and coronae, show the pervasive influence of volcanism across Venusian lowlands. The rims of nine identified impact features are delineated; large bright and dark haloes, which in some cases are associated with individual impact craters, are mapped as surficial mantling deposits. We documented spatial relationships using the stratigraphic and cross-cutting relationships of the quadrangle’s geologic units and features to provide a synthesis of the region’s geologic history. The upland terrain of the quadrangle indicates intense tectonic deformation and uplift. It is exposed as embayed remnants, typically within the plains, and represents the oldest geologic materials locally and across the region. Guinevere plains and the plains-forming flow unit appear to be assemblages of volcanic flows from multiple sources, including distinct coronae and corona-like structures. The temporal evolution of Guinevere lineated and mottled plains was likely protracted, with continued formation of small volcanic edifices over a long period. The morphologic and radar brightness characteristics of volcanoes in the region indicate their growth may have involved (1) multiple large-scale eruptive centers with recognizable spatial and temporal sequences, (2) extensive lava flow fields with a multitude of flows producing complex, overlapping patterns, and (3) numerous small volcanic edifices, including shields, domes, and cones. Although geologic patterns common to other regions of Venus are evident in the Guinevere Planitia quadrangle, local relative age relationships are inconsistent or unclear, preventing robust stratigraphic correlation. The mapping results do, however, indicate complicated local sequences of volcanic and tectonic activity.

Scientific Investigations Map↗
USGS2025

Hydrogeologic characterization of the Cahuilla Valley and Terwilliger Valley Groundwater Basins, Riverside County, California

The relation between the groundwater and the amount of natural recharge to the Cahuilla Valley and Terwilliger Valley groundwater basins is not well understood. During the 20th century, the reliance on groundwater near Anza, California, used for agricultural, domestic, and municipal reasons has increased, and there is the potential for changes in groundwater availability related to climate change. Several types of existing data were evaluated, and new data were collected for this study, with the goal of characterizing the region’s hydrogeology. The study’s scope included constructing a geologic framework model to show where the groundwater-bearing units are present and their relation to each other, estimating the major components of the groundwater budget, and understanding local short-term and regional long-term groundwater flow and how that has changed since the early 1900s. Two electrical resistivity tomography surveys were done in the Durasno Valley about 2,150 feet apart to identify the thickness of the alluvium, its horizontal extent, and the depth-to-basement along two profiles perpendicular to Cahuilla Creek. The subsurface sediments were mostly horizontally layered and the transitional boundary between the alluvium and basement was thinner and shallower along the upgradient profile where the depth-to-basement was about 70 feet below land surface; the depth-to-basement at the downgradient profile was more than about 140 feet below land surface. The results from the surveys were used to place four monitoring wells at two sites along the survey profiles. Artesian flow from the deepest well at the downgradient site indicated that the decomposed and competent basement likely contributed some groundwater to the overlying alluvium, laterally, from below, or both. A digital three-dimensional geologic framework model was constructed using EarthVision software to represent the subsurface geometry of the alluvium, decomposed basement, and competent basement. Maps and cross sections of the modeled thicknesses of the alluvium and decomposed basement, and the modeled elevation of the top of the competent basement, were made to show the subsurface geometry of vertical faults, selected wells, and the groundwater-bearing units. Because natural recharge is related to the variable cycles of precipitation, estimates are difficult to quantify. Recharge and runoff have extreme interannual variability in the study area; recharge and runoff can be sporadic, and a substantive amount may not occur in some years. Estimates of recharge from a previous study and the regional-scale Basin Characterization Model for California for four different periods ranged from 3,800 acre-feet/year for 1897–1947 to 5,900 acre-feet/year for 1971–2000. Potential recharge from the disposal of domestic septic systems may have been as much as 500 acre-feet in 2020. It was estimated that between about 400 and 2,400 acre-feet/year of groundwater is lost through evapotranspiration by vegetation and evaporation from open water bodies, but the main source of discharge is through pumpage, mainly used for agriculture from the alluvium in the Cahuilla Valley and Terwilliger Valley groundwater basins. The estimated total pumpage for 1991–2021 ranged from about 1,140 acre-feet in 2019 to about 3,450 acre-feet in 1994. When summed, the cumulative amount of estimated pumpage between 1991 and 2021 was about 81,400 acre-feet. The general direction of groundwater flow is from the northeast along the San Jacinto fault zone at the headwaters of Cahuilla and Hamilton Creeks, to the surface-water outlets at the west and southeast parts of the study area. Groundwater-level data from the 1950s and earlier indicate that there was a natural groundwater divide between the Cahuilla Valley and Terwilliger Valley groundwater basins, but the changing magnitude and extent of the groundwater depressions caused by pumping since about 1950 indicate that the location of the natural groundwater boundary between the Cahuilla Valley and Terwilliger Valley groundwater basins has migrated over time. Flow from the upper to the lower parts of the Cahuilla Valley groundwater basin roughly follows the course of Cahuilla Creek through the narrow Durasno Valley where an estimated volume of flow in April 2019 was about 10–150 acre-feet/year. Short-term trends in groundwater levels, particularly in wells where groundwater is shallow and in the basement unit, show how some areas respond quickly to recharge and discharge. Wells located further to the east within the Cahuilla Valley groundwater basin in the alluvium show much less of a response to recharge events; areas of sustained pumpage from the alluvium, primarily for agriculture, show long-term declines in groundwater levels and generally do not show the effects of storm events or recent runoff. Groundwater levels in wells that are farthest from where most of the recharge occurs and where pumping has been the greatest, had some of the largest long-term groundwater-level declines at a rate of about 0.8 foot/year between 1971 and 2021.

California↗
USGS2025

A probabilistic assessment methodology for the evaluation of geologic energy storage capacity—Natural gas storage in depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs

The need for energy storage, particularly underground, where capacity and duration may far exceed battery storage technologies, is especially relevant given the increasing demands for reliable power alongside the development of intermittent renewable electricity sources. Geologic energy storage facilities already exist, and expanded use would enable storing gases such as methane and hydrogen. In 2018, a National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine report, “Future Directions for the U.S. Geological Survey's Energy Resources Program,” recommended that the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) prioritize assessing underground energy storage in geologic formations in the United States. The U.S. Geological Survey has since developed a methodology for assessing natural gas storage capacities in depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs on a national scale. The methodology introduced in this report prescribes three approaches for calculating gas storage capacity. This methodology relies on the availability of input data, including cumulative hydrocarbon production records, reservoir petrophysical properties, and reservoir pressure data. Assessment inputs can be obtained from public, State-level databases and propriety national-scale databases, although the use of analogs could be warranted for estimating input parameters. Probabilistic assessment results are aggregated to play, petroleum province, regional, and national scales. The steps defined in this report are demonstrated on the Michigan Basin Province, which includes the Mississippian Sandstone Gas Play and the Clinton Structural Play. This methodology could be used to systematically and consistently assess hydrocarbon plays and provinces for natural gas storage capacity across the United States.

Michigan↗
USGS2025

Diurnal patterns of nitrous oxide fluxes from a seasonal prairie wetland

Wetlands have spatially and temporally dynamic nitrous oxide (N 2 O) fluxes. Understanding diurnal patterns in N 2 O fluxes in wetlands can reveal short-term drivers and improve process-based models. An automated chamber system was used to determine N 2 O flux rates every 2.5 to 4 h in a prairie pothole wetland in North Dakota during the 2013 to 2014 growing seasons under ponded, moist, and dry soil conditions. The wetland generally emitted N 2 O under all conditions, although median fluxes during ponded conditions were low over the two-year study. A significant diurnal N 2 O pattern was observed under dry soil conditions, but not in moist soil or ponded conditions. When soils were dry, daytime (~ 10:00–14:00; 2.43 ± 0.31 ng m -2 hr -1 ) and late-day (~ 14:00–18:00; 2.20 ± 0.16 ng m -2 hr -1 ) average N 2 O fluxes were 77% and 61% greater, respectively, than other times during the 24-hr diel cycle (< 1.37 ng m -2 hr -1 ). N 2 O flux was positively correlated to air ( r = 0.58) and soil ( r = 0.49) temperatures under dry conditions, while no significant correlations to environmental factors were observed under ponded and moist conditions. Incorporating diurnal patterns in N 2 O fluxes in wetlands and other ecosystems can improve extrapolations from daily to annual flux calculations and constrain global N 2 O inventories.

North Dakota↗
USGS2025

Risks of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substance exposure through marine fish consumption

Global food trade expansion has enriched diets worldwide but also heightened concerns about contaminant spread. Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) can persist in the environment for decades, yet their risks through food trade remain unclear. The global median estimated daily intake (EDI) of C8-PFAS (perfluorooctanoic acid and perfluorooctane sulfonate) (0.023 nanograms per kilograms per day) was mapped from 212 marine fish species, which indicated higher EDIs in North America, Oceania, and Europe. Furthermore, European countries play a pivotal role in C8-PFAS trade flows, markedly reshaping exposure pathways and driving increased exposure in many nations. These dynamics highlight the importance of establishing food-safety regulations and international trade standards. Although perfluorooctane sulfonate hazard index decreased by 72% after its 2009 regulations, unregulated long-chain PFAS continue to pose elevated risks.

Science↗
USGS2025

Landscape associations and population genetics of a generalist carnivore at a range limit

American black bear ( Ursus americanus ) sightings have increased in the Oklahoma Panhandle, an area outside of the species’ historical range, prompting an assessment of bears in the region. We used camera traps and an occupancy modeling framework to identify factors influencing bear detection and space-use patterns. We used noninvasive genetic sampling techniques to evaluate genetic diversity, population structure, and bear abundance in the region. During the summers of 2022–2023, we deployed cameras at 160 sites across western Oklahoma (USA) and detected ≥1 bear at 20 sites. The most-supported model from our single-season single-species analysis indicated that bear detection was positively associated with temperature and precipitation, negatively associated with day of year, and differed between years. The most-supported model indicated that bear space use was negatively associated with elevation (β = −0.013, 85% CI = −0.025, 0.000), and positively associated with slope (β = 0.645, 85% CI = 0.305, 0.984) and coarse woody debris counts (β = 1.539, 85% CI = 0.314, 2.765). We deployed 41 hair snares in Oklahoma resulting in the collection of 153 hair samples and received 69 tissue samples from black bears harvested in northeastern New Mexico. Using 11 microsatellite markers, we identified 21 (12M:9F) bears in western Oklahoma, and 69 (40M:29F) in New Mexico. We found evidence that bears occurring in Oklahoma were an extension of a previously documented population that occurred in northcentral New Mexico. We detected significant population-level heterozygote deficiency ( P = 0.013) compared to expectations under Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. Using capture with replacement models, we estimated 26 (95% CI = 19–43) bears in western Oklahoma during 2022–2023. Our results provide baseline data on population distribution, abundance, and genetic health of bears in the region and identify factors that may drive human-bear conflicts as the bear population increases in western Oklahoma.

New Mexico, Oklahoma↗
USGS2025

A comprehensive geologic framework of the National Crustal Model for seismic hazard studies in the conterminous United States

A three-dimensional (3D) geologic framework has been developed for the conterminous United States (U.S.) as part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Crustal Model to enhance seismic hazard modeling. The geologic framework is created from geologic maps and multiple subsurface geologic unit boundaries including the base of the Miocene, Cenozoic, Phanerozoic, and the Mohorovičić discontinuity. Modifications are made to surficial geologic maps to remove discontinuities across state and country borders. The subsurface distribution of rock type and age is extrapolated from the surface, seeded with subsurface geologic information, and constrained by a map of basement geology. The framework provides the basis for estimates of subsurface seismic velocity and density that is needed to improve estimates of earthquake ground shaking and seismic hazard. The present framework greatly expands and updates a previously published 3D geologic framework of the western part of the U.S. that was itself a first-of-its-kind digital 3D portrayal of the nation.

conterminous United States↗
USGS2025

Shallow geologic framework of the Mississippi Sound and the potential for sediment resources

The Mississippi Sound, an estuarine environment located between the mainland and barrier islands bordering the northern Gulf of America (formerly the Gulf of Mexico), serves as a vital ecosystem for the States of Mississippi and Alabama. Spanning approximately 100 kilometers from east to west and covering 1,400 square kilometers, the sound is home to marine industry and ports, and its shallow and brackish waters sustain a diverse array of marine life. Barrier islands along the southern edge of the sound separate the microtidal estuary from the Gulf of America. This protection from gulf wave action mediates current flow within the sound, resulting in predominantly fine-grained sediment deposition along the seafloor. This study, conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, provides insight on fluvial and tidal processes spanning the past 5,000 years. The report synthesizes existing research to provide a comprehensive overview of the sound geology, from Pleistocene origins to present-day morphology, and utilizes high-resolution single channel seismic profiles and sediment data to identify and map sedimentary deposits and morphologic features at and below the seafloor. Despite its ecological significance, the Mississippi Sound faces environmental challenges, including water-quality issues, habitat degradation, storm-induced erosion, and the ongoing threats of sea-level rise and environmental changes. This study uses the present-day understanding of the sound's geology to inform coastal management decisions, hazard assessment, and potential mineral resources.

Louisiana, Mississippi↗
USGS2025

SiMPL wildlife magnets: A camera trap tool for detecting all creatures great and small

We created the SiMPL wildlife magnet—a baited camera trap design that allows passive monitoring of wildlife, particularly small- to medium-sized mammals. The SiMPL wildlife magnet is inexpensive and easy to construct. To evaluate its effectiveness, we conducted a two-year case study using 9 camera stations along an elevation gradient in the White Mountains of the northeastern United States. We examined how the detection probability of mammal species changed with the inclusion of a SiMPL wildlife magnet using data from pre-and post-establishment. We found a significant increase in community-level detection probability with the use of SiMPL wildlife magnets and for individual species, including red squirrels ( Tamiasciurus hudsonicus ), American marten ( Martes americana ), and fisher ( Pekania pennanti ). Moreover, we were able to capture more species with SiMPL wildlife magnets than without, including flying squirrels ( Glaucomys spp.), various rodents ( Cricetidae spp.), black bears ( Ursus americanus ), moose ( Alces alces ), owls, and other birds. The SiMPL wildlife magnet is an effective, low-cost method for surveying wildlife communities, especially rodents and mesocarnivores. It addresses the limited field of view presented by other techniques for capturing small mammals on camera traps and enables efficient collection of phenology data, including vegetation and snowpack. This tool has several applications, including monitoring species' responses to management practices and global change.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2025

Dynamic risk from Mexican wolves and mountain lions influences elk foraging behavior

Foraging time is a major component of ungulate activity budgets but can be limited by anti-predator behaviors (e.g., vigilance). Multitasking can reduce the nutritional costs of vigilance under heightened predation risk, but this may depend on the response of prey to risk from multiple predators across a complex spatiotemporal landscape. Mexican gray wolves ( Canis lupus baileyi ) and mountain lions ( Puma concolor ) are primary predators for elk ( Cervus canadensis ) in the Mexican wolf experimental population area in east-central Arizona and west-central New Mexico. We observed elk foraging across varying levels of wolf risk throughout all seasons and diel periods to quantify proportions of foraging, intense vigilance, and multitasking at the individual and herd levels. We quantified encounter and kill risk from Mexican wolves and mountain lions using habitat selection functions and utilization distributions. We modeled elk behaviors as functions of predicted risk for both predators in addition to temporal and environmental covariates and accounted for human presence. Our results indicate that individual elk reduced foraging in areas with higher predicted risk from Mexican wolves or mountain lions and increased intense vigilance and multitasking in areas with higher wolf risk. A reduction in the proportion of bedded elk in the herd during all diel periods under increased wolf risk supports previous findings. These results also suggest that elk compensate for higher intense vigilance and reduced foraging during foraging bouts by increasing cumulative foraging bouts per day at the cost of resting. Additionally, the probability of multitasking for individuals depended on an interaction between short- and long-term wolf risk, and the likelihood of intense vigilance was highest under the greatest combined spatial and temporal risk from wolves. This research provides insight into the fine-scale and complex behavioral responses of elk to their primary predators and implies a need for researchers to consider these non-consumptive effects in future studies of predator–prey dynamics.

Arizona, New Mexico↗
USGS2025

Changing dynamic phosphorus forms from field to stream during surface runoff events

The risk of water quality impairment from agricultural runoff depends on nutrient source, transport, and bioavailability. Phosphorus (P) spirals between dissolved and particulate forms as it is transported with suspended sediment (SS) from agricultural fields, through the stream network, to receiving water bodies. This dynamic sorption-desorption influences bioavailability. We quantified P form and abundance in samples collected during surface-runoff events from a farm field in the East River Basin, Wisconsin and compared them to those in stream water collected from the East River. We sampled five events between late March 2022 and June 2023. During most events, P in surface runoff was mainly in dissolved form, with particulate P sorbed to fine clay, the most abundant particle fraction transported from the field, whereas P in stream water was mainly in particulate form and sorbed to silt, even though fine clay was the most abundant particle fraction in the stream during events. Overall capacity for P sorption to SS in the stream varied among events. Total P and SS concentrations were lower during summer baseflow conditions and smaller surface runoff events; however, what SS was present was more P enriched. This shift in P form from field to stream indicates a potential for sorbing dissolved P to SS during transport through the stream network, which changes the bioavailability of P exported downstream with less bioavailable P as dissolved P binds to SS.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2025

Quantifying leachable phosphorus from the leaves of common midwest urban street trees and implications for stormwater management

Urban runoff containing high amounts of nutrients like phosphorus (P) is a well-established driver of surface water eutrophication. In residential areas, a primary source of nutrients is derived from leaf litter. P contained in leaves is leached and transported by stormwater from source to stream. The majority of P leached from leaf litter is in the dissolved phase, which can be difficult to remove using conventional treatment practices, leaving source control as the most viable option. Additional tools are needed to help forecast how different tree species may improve or hinder contributions of nutrients to runoff. For this reason, ten street tree species that are common throughout the contiguous U.S. were chosen to evaluate the effect of species on leachable P from tree leaves using laboratory experiments. After 48 h of exposure to water, the amount of P released ranged from 2.16 mg P g −1 leaf for Silver Maple to 0.03 mg P g −1 leaf for Hackberry. More than half of the P was lost in the first 12 h for eight of the ten tree species, making guided source control important to reduce inputs to surface water from key locations. Results were used to identify ‘hotspots’ of P leaching in Madison, WI and can be used to assess current street tree inventories that can then guide management to areas with the highest nutrient reduction potential and inform urban foresters who may wish to tailor future planting scenarios that minimize nutrients in runoff.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2025

Phytoplankton biomass dynamics in wet (2019) and dry (2023) years in Lake Pontchartrain estuary, Louisiana from Sentinel 2-MSI and PACE-OCI observations

This study provides a comprehensive assessment of phytoplankton biomass dynamics in Lake Pontchartrain, Louisiana, by combining monthly water quality data with multispectral and hyperspectral satellite observations using a machine learning algorithm. A machine learning model based on Variational Autoencoder (VAE), globally applicable, was used to estimate phytoplankton biomass via chlorophyll- a (Chl- a ) from Sentinel 2-MSI and NASA's new hyperspectral mission, PACE-OCI, enabling the first direct comparison between the two sensors. The model performed well in this complex estuarine system, with higher accuracy from PACE-OCI (MAE: 1.48, RMSE: 10.40, slope: 0.87) than Sentinel 2-MSI (MAE: 1.57, RMSE: 11.08, slope: 0.83). This approach enabled continuous high-resolution monitoring of phytoplankton biomass across space and time. Comparative analysis of 2019, a wet year with Bonnet Carré Spillway (BCS) openings, and 2023, a dry year with extremely low riverine inputs, revealed distinct biomass dynamics. In 2019, BCS discharge initially suppressed Chl- a within turbid waters (<5 mg Chl- a m −3 ) but later acted as a nutrient and hydrodynamic driver, transporting nutrients toward the lake outlet and Mississippi coast, promoting high biomass (25–45 mg Chl- a m −3 ) near the entrance. In contrast, dry conditions in 2023 led to more frequent-than-expected high biomass (>35 mg Chl- a m −3 ), persisting in the lake center. Similar spatial patterns were observed again in 2024, revealed for the first time by PACE-OCI. This study demonstrates the value of satellite-derived observations for capturing transient phytoplankton biomass events and highlights the potential of PACE-OCI's hyperspectral capabilities to better distinguish phytoplankton communities and improve understanding of their responses to freshwater inflows and associated processes driving pulses into estuaries.

Louisiana↗
USGS2025

From models to management: Implementing the climate-change refugia conservation cycle in national parks of the northeastern United States

Managing climate-change refugia is a commonly recommended strategy for conserving biodiversity. However, few efforts have moved beyond the modeling phase of refugia science to management. Here, we present two case studies that move beyond modeling to testing models and management. In the first case study, we model refugia for two plant species (three-toothed cinquefoil [ Sibbaldia tridentata ] and black crowberry [ Empetrum nigrum ]) in Acadia National Park, Maine, United States, and use greenhouse experiments, common-garden experiments, and participatory science to evaluate the output of those models. Our results suggest that three-toothed cinquefoil growth and survival are reduced under increased temperatures as models predict. However, other variables (e.g., soil moisture and salinity) might also be important to modeling and managing refugia for both species. National Park Service staff and partners have been directing restoration for both species to refugia, but are also exploring other adaptation strategies. In the second case study, we demonstrate that existing prioritization processes for habitat restoration in national parks of the northeastern United States rarely incorporate refugia for two indicator species: Jefferson salamander ( Ambystoma jeffersonianum ) and grasshopper sparrow ( Ammodramus savannarum ). Our work demonstrates that moving beyond modeling can improve models and lead to new management insights.

Northeast United States↗
USGS2025

Conserving climate-change refugia: Insights from research and practice

As the impacts of anthropogenic climate change increase, conservation of climate-change refugia has become a key strategy for effective environmental stewardship. Over the last 5 years, the field of climate-change refugia conservation has made exciting advances, shifting from concepts and theory to refugia mapping and implementation. However, few studies have advanced to action on the ground; while 84% of studies identified and mapped refugia, only 4% involved implementing management action. Moreover, taxonomic and geographic gaps remain, with most studies focused on terrestrial plants and vertebrates in Europe and North America. Here, we outline impediments to implementation following the steps of the Climate-Change Refugia Conservation Cycle. Based on a systematic literature review, we elucidate advances and obstacles with examples from a diversity of systems and sectors from across the world and highlight emerging work bridging the gap between research and implementation.

Conservation Science and Practice↗
USGS2025

Integrating refugia modeling and decision science to support climate-adaptive conservation in the Sierra Nevada

To reduce detrimental impacts of anthropogenic change, natural resource managers often look for place-based solutions to minimize biodiversity loss. Climate-change refugia, areas buffered from contemporary climate change, can enable the persistence of valued natural resources and prolong the benefits of conservation action. Here we combine climate-change refugia modeling with structured decision-making to inform conservation decisions for the endangered foothill yellow-legged frog ( Rana boylii ) in the Sierra Nevada region of California, USA. We used an ensemble of species distribution models to identify areas projected to remain suitable into the 2040s and the 2080s under an RCP 8.5 emissions scenario, as well as areas projected to transition to suitable habitat during this time. We integrated these projections with a structured decision-making process to align management strategies with refugia model outcomes for R. boylii in a subset of the study area. Habitat suitability for R. boylii is projected to decline in the study area by over 90% by the 2040s and by a subsequent 15% by the 2080s. Climate-change refugia are projected to occupy ~7% of present-day suitable habitat, with high agreement between GCMs and model timesteps. Areas projected to transition to suitable habitat within the existing R. boylii clade boundaries are negligible. Collectively, climate-change refugia modeling and structured decision-making provide opportunities to improve resource allocation and empower conservation practitioners in climate change adaptation for at-risk species.

California↗
USGS2025

Climate change refugia hotspots for priority species: A case study in East Africa

Natural resource managers and policymakers need actionable climate data to guide conservation decisions. Conserving climate change refugia, areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change, is increasingly considered an effective strategy for adaptation. Despite tropical species facing heightened vulnerability to climate change, the tropics remain underserved in climate adaptation research. We coproduced with Tanzanian partners the first comprehensive assessment of climate change refugia across Tanzania through extensive consultation, in-person conversations, and field visits to priority ecosystems, ensuring our analysis addressed local conservation needs and decision-making contexts. We developed species distribution models for 33 terrestrial animal species using maximum entropy and boosted regression tree algorithms. We projected future suitable habitats for SSP126 and SSP585, for 2011–2040 and 2071–2100, using GFDL Earth System and the UK Earth System models. More than half under SSP126 and 79% of focal species under SSP585 lost their suitable habitat by 2100. Serengeti National Park, Northern Highlands Forest Reserve, and the Eastern Arc Mountains emerged as key climate change refugia, while other protected areas, including Kigosi and Ugalla River National Parks, had no climate change refugia. This assessment provides actionable insights for Tanzania's conservation prioritization while identifying critical research gaps in western and montane ecosystems.

Conservation Science and Practice↗