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USGS2022

Spaceborne InSAR mapping of landslides and subsidence in rapidly deglaciating terrain, Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve and vicinity, Alaska and British Columbia

The Glacier Bay area in southeastern Alaska and British Columbia, encompassing Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve, has experienced rapid glacier retreat since the end of the Little Ice Age in the mid-1800s. The impact that rapid deglaciation has had on the slope stability of valley walls and on the sedimentation of fans and deltas adjacent to fjords and inlets is an ongoing research topic. Using 3-year (2018–2020) Sentinel-1 datasets, and an automated time-series persistent scatterer interferometric synthetic aperture radar (PSInSAR) processing method, we detected landslides or delta subsidence at 27 sites within a vast 180 × 180 km remote region encompassing Glacier Bay proper. Most of the sites that we identified had not been previously identified. We categorized the hazard source areas that we identified into three general types:1) slow-moving landslides on steep rocky slopes not near (> 2 km away from) present-day glacier termini (e.g., Tidal Inlet landslide), 2) slow-moving landslides directly adjacent to (< 2 km away from), and associated with glacier thinning and retreat, and 3) subsidence of glacial outwash fan deltas. In categories 1 and 2, we observed 22 landslides moving at velocities ranging from 0.5 to 4 cm/yr. In category 3, we detected five fan deltas subsiding at velocities ranging from 0.5 to 6 cm/yr. Within our measurement error, these velocities were consistent during the monitoring period. Because acceleration was not observed, the issuance of warnings of imminent rapid failure is not warranted, however, continued remote monitoring is warranted. Our interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) results could be combined with other data sets including field observations, subaerial and submarine landslide inventories, bedrock fabric mapping from newly available light detection and ranging (lidar) data, and geologic maps to produce an inherent susceptibility map for landslides in bedrock and fan deltas. This map could be used to forecast susceptibility for both earthquake and climatically induced landslides.

Alaska, British Columbia↗

USGS2010

Geomorphology and depositional subenvironments of Gulf Islands National Seashore, Mississippi

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is studying coastal hazards and coastal change to improve our understanding of coastal ecosystems and to develop better capabilities of predicting future coastal change. One approach to understanding the dynamics of coastal systems is to monitor changes in barrier-island subenvironments through time. This involves examining morphological and topographic change at temporal scales ranging from millennia to years and spatial scales ranging from tens of kilometers to meters. Of particular interest are the processes that produce those changes and the determination of whether or not those processes are likely to persist into the future. In these analyses of hazards and change, both natural and anthropogenic influences are considered. Quantifying past magnitudes and rates of coastal change and knowing the principal factors that govern those changes are critical to predicting what changes are likely to occur under different scenarios, such as short-term impacts of extreme storms or long-term impacts of sea-level rise. Gulf Islands National Seashore was selected for detailed mapping of barrier-island morphology and topography because the islands offer a diversity of depositional subenvironments and the islands' areas and positions have changed substantially in historical time. The geomorphologic and subenvironmental maps emphasize the processes that formed the surficial features and also serve as a basis for documenting which subenvironments are relatively stable, such as the beach ridge complex, and those which are highly dynamic, such as the beach and active overwash zones. The primary mapping procedures used supervised functions within a Geographic Information System (GIS) that classified depositional subenvironments and features (map units) and delineated boundaries of the features (shapefiles). The GIS classified units on the basis of tonal patterns of a feature in contrast to adjacent features observed on georeferenced aerial photographs. Land elevations from recent lidar surveys served as supplementary data to assist in delineating the map-unit boundaries.

Mississippi↗

USGS2021

Cyanotoxin mixture models: Relating environmental variables and toxin co-occurrence to human exposure risk

Toxic cyanobacterial blooms, often containing multiple toxins, are a serious public health issue. However, there are no known models that predict a cyanotoxin mixture (anatoxin-a, microcystin, saxitoxin). This paper presents two cyanotoxin mixture models (MIX) and compares them to two microcystin (MC) models from data collected in 2016–2017 from three recurring cyanobacterial bloom locations in Kabetogama Lake, Voyageurs National Park (Minnesota, USA). Models include those using near-real-time environmental variables (readily available) and those using additional comprehensive variables (based on laboratory analyses). Comprehensive models (R 2 = 0.87 MC; R 2 = 0.86 MIX) explained more variability than the environmental models (R 2 = 0.58 MC; R 2 = 0.57 MIX). Although neither MIX model was a better fit than the MC models, the MIX models produced no false negatives in the calibration dataset, indicating that all observations above regulatory guidelines were simulated by the MIX models. This is the first known use of Virtual Beach software for a cyanotoxin mixture model, and the methods used in this paper may be applicable to other lakes or beaches.

Minnesota↗

USGS2000

Geologic studies in Alaska by the U.S. Geological Survey, 1997

The eight papers that follow continue the series of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) reports on investigations in the geologic sciences in Alaska. The series presents new and sometimes preliminary findings that are of interest to earth scientists in academia, government, and industry; to land and resource managers; and to the general public. Reports presented in Geologic Studies in Alaska cover a broad spectrum of topics from all parts of the State (fig. 1), which serves to emphasize the diversity of USGS efforts to meet the Nation's needs for earth-science information in Alaska. The papers in this volume are organized under the topics Resources, Geologic Framework, and Environment and Climate. Such an organization is intended to reflect the scope and objectives of USGS programs currently active in Alaska. Resource papers include one that presents detailed observations from a Mississippian Zn-Pb-Cu-Ag occurrence in the Brooks Range (Werdon). Mineralogic, chemical, and isotopic data provide the basis for a proposed relationship between this vein-breccia deposit and the shale-hosted massive sulfide deposit type, which includes the active Red Dog mine in the western Brooks Range. Also included under the topic of Resources is a paper that presents geochemical and isotopic data from the Greens Creek and Woewodski Island volcanogenic massive sulfide deposits in southeastern Alaska (Newberry and Brew). The depositional environment and sedimentological setting of Tertiary coal beds in the Matanuska and Susitna Valleys is the focus of a third paper under the topic of Resources (Flores and others). Geologic Framework studies provide background information that is the scientific basis for present and future studies of the environment, mineral and energy resources, paleoclimate, and hazards in Alaska. One paper presents the results of sedimentologic and paleontologic comparisons of lower Paleozoic, deep-water-facies rock units in central Alaska (Dumoulin and others). The authors show which of these units are likely to correlate with one another, suggest likely source regions, and provide a structural restoration of units that have been fragmented by large fault motions. A second framework paper provides a map, rock descriptions, and chemical compositions of volcanic rocks in a newly recognized, geologically young volcanic center in the Aleutian volcanic arc (Hildreth and others). A third paper presents an interesting summary of gravity changes that occurred in south-central Alaska during the great earthquake of 1964 and for the following 25 years (Barnes). Gravity changes correlate with land-elevation changes in some cases, but not in others, which means that different processes are responsible for the gravity changes.

Alaska↗

USGS2021

NASA's surface biology and geology designated observable: A perspective on surface imaging algorithms

The 2017–2027 National Academies' Decadal Survey, Thriving on Our Changing Planet , recommended Surface Biology and Geology (SBG) as a “Designated Targeted Observable” (DO). The SBG DO is based on the need for capabilities to acquire global, high spatial resolution, visible to shortwave infrared (VSWIR; 380–2500 nm; ~30 m pixel resolution) hyperspectral (imaging spectroscopy) and multispectral midwave and thermal infrared (MWIR: 3–5 μm; TIR: 8–12 μm; ~60 m pixel resolution) measurements with sub-monthly temporal revisits over terrestrial, freshwater, and coastal marine habitats. To address the various mission design needs, an SBG Algorithms Working Group of multidisciplinary researchers has been formed to review and evaluate the algorithms applicable to the SBG DO across a wide range of Earth science disciplines, including terrestrial and aquatic ecology, atmospheric science, geology, and hydrology. Here, we summarize current state-of-the-practice VSWIR and TIR algorithms that use airborne or orbital spectral imaging observations to address the SBG DO priorities identified by the Decadal Survey: (i) terrestrial vegetation physiology, functional traits, and health; (ii) inland and coastal aquatic ecosystems physiology, functional traits, and health; (iii) snow and ice accumulation, melting, and albedo; (iv) active surface composition (eruptions, landslides, evolving landscapes, hazard risks); (v) effects of changing land use on surface energy, water, momentum, and carbon fluxes; and (vi) managing agriculture, natural habitats, water use/quality, and urban development. We review existing algorithms in the following categories: snow/ice, aquatic environments, geology, and terrestrial vegetation, and summarize the community-state-of-practice in each category. This effort synthesizes the findings of more than 130 scientists.

Remote Sensing of Environment↗

USGS2020

Repeatable source, path, and site effects from the 2019 Ridgecrest M7.1 earthquake sequence

We use a large instrumental dataset from the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence ( Rekoske et al. , 2019 , 2020 ) to examine repeatable source‐, path‐, and site‐specific ground motions. A mixed‐effects analysis is used to partition total residuals relative to the Boore et al. (2014 ; hereafter, BSSA14) ground‐motion model. We calculate the Arias intensity stress drop for the earthquakes and find strong correlation with our event terms, indicating that they are consistent with source processes. We look for physically meaningful trends in the partitioned residuals and test the ability of BSSA14 to capture the behavior we observe in the data. We find that BSSA14 is a good match to the median observations for M > 4 "> M > 4 M>4 ⁠ . However, we find bias for individual events, especially those with small magnitude and hypocentral depth ≥ 7    km "> depth ≥ 7 km depth≥7 km ⁠ , for which peak ground acceleration is underpredicted by a factor of 2.5. Although the site amplification term captures the median site response when all sites are considered together, it does not capture variations at individual stations across a range of site conditions. We find strong basin amplification in the Los Angeles, Ventura, and San Gabriel basins. We find weak amplification in the San Bernardino basin, which is contrary to simulation‐based findings showing a channeling effect from an event with a north–south azimuth. This and an additional set of ground motions from earthquakes southwest of Los Angeles suggest that there is an azimuth‐dependent southern California basin response related to the orientation of regional structures when ground motion from waves traveling south–north are compared with those in the east–west direction. These findings exhibit the power of large, spatially dense ground‐motion datasets and make clear that nonergodic models are a way to reduce bias and uncertainty in ground‐motion estimation for applications like the U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model and the ShakeAlert earthquake early warning System.

California↗

USGS2008

An atlas of ShakeMaps for selected global earthquakes

An atlas of maps of peak ground motions and intensity 'ShakeMaps' has been developed for almost 5,000 recent and historical global earthquakes. These maps are produced using established ShakeMap methodology (Wald and others, 1999c; Wald and others, 2005) and constraints from macroseismic intensity data, instrumental ground motions, regional topographically-based site amplifications, and published earthquake-rupture models. Applying the ShakeMap methodology allows a consistent approach to combine point observations with ground-motion predictions to produce descriptions of peak ground motions and intensity for each event. We also calculate an estimated ground-motion uncertainty grid for each earthquake. The Atlas of ShakeMaps provides a consistent and quantitative description of the distribution and intensity of shaking for recent global earthquakes (1973-2007) as well as selected historic events. As such, the Atlas was developed specifically for calibrating global earthquake loss estimation methodologies to be used in the U.S. Geological Survey Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) Project. PAGER will employ these loss models to rapidly estimate the impact of global earthquakes as part of the USGS National Earthquake Information Center's earthquake-response protocol. The development of the Atlas of ShakeMaps has also led to several key improvements to the Global ShakeMap system. The key upgrades include: addition of uncertainties in the ground motion mapping, introduction of modern ground-motion prediction equations, improved estimates of global seismic-site conditions (VS30), and improved definition of stable continental region polygons. Finally, we have merged all of the ShakeMaps in the Atlas to provide a global perspective of earthquake ground shaking for the past 35 years, allowing comparison with probabilistic hazard maps. The online Atlas and supporting databases can be found at http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/shakemap/atlas.php/.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2025

Gas chemistry and isotope data for volcano monitoring at the Lassen Volcanic Center, Lassen Volcanic National Park

This report presents chemical and isotopic compositions of volcanic gases collected from thermal areas within Lassen Volcanic National Park in northern California from 1974 through 2019. As the southernmost volcano in the Cascade Range and designated a very-high-threat volcano by the U.S. Geological Survey, the Lassen Volcanic Center (LVC) requires consistent monitoring to assess potential volcanic hazards. In 2014, the California Volcano Observatory established a gas geochemical monitoring program at LVC to provide baseline data to evaluate future changes.</p> Results demonstrate consistent spatial patterns in bulk gas chemistry that support a two-circulation-cell hydrothermal model previously established for LVC. Gas samples from circulation cell 1 thermal areas have higher helium isotope ratios (6.59–7.50 times the air value) than those from circulation cell 2 (5.86–6.52 times the air value), indicating a stronger magmatic signature. The Sulphur Works and Pilot Pinnacle thermal areas within circulation cell 1 consistently emit gases with the highest magmatic helium contents, suggesting gas at these areas best represents conditions in the underlying volcanic system. A slight decrease in helium isotope values since 1974 may indicate progressive dilution of magmatic helium-3 (3He) by radiogenic helium-4 (4He) in the absence of recent magma intrusion. Carbon isotope compositions of carbon dioxide across all thermal areas are relatively uniform (−9.7–−7.3 per mil), falling within the range observed at other Cascade Range volcanoes. Based on gas geochemical characteristics and site accessibility, the Sulphur Works and Pilot Pinnacle thermal areas represent optimal targets for continued monitoring of the LVC magmatic-hydrothermal system. This study includes the most comprehensive helium isotope dataset collected at LVC currently available and establishes critical baseline data for future volcanic monitoring efforts.</p>

Open-File Report↗

USGS2024

Effective site coefficients for the 2024 International Building Code (IBC)

The U.S. National Seismic Hazard Models (NSHMs), developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), have long been the scientific foundation of seismic design guidelines and have been used to compute design ground motions for construction of new buildings and retrofit of existing buildings in the United States and its territories. The 2018 NSHM is adopted by the 2024 International Building Code (IBC). Prior to the 2018 NSHM update, hazard calculations were required only at one reference site condition defined by V S30 =760 m/s (where V S30 is the time-averaged shear wave velocity from the surface to a depth of 30 m) and three periods (peak ground acceleration, PGA, and pseudo spectral accelerations at periods of 0.2 and 1 s, S s and S 1 ). Site coefficients, F PGA , F a , and F v , were then defined by the Building Seismic Safety Council (BSSC) Provisions Update Committee (PUC) in the site-specific procedures of National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program (NEHRP) Recommended Seismic Provisions to calculate ground motions for other site classes with different V S30 values at the given periods. The design ground motions at other periods were then estimated using a generic spectral shape that was also defined by the BSSC PUC in NEHRP provisions. In recent years, the engineering community has realized there were deficiencies with the F a and F v site coefficients and the generic spectral shape. To avoid potentially dangerous underestimations of design ground motions for long period structures on soft site conditions in high seismicity regions, the BSSC PUC recommended the use of multi-period response spectra (MPRS) in 2017. As a result, the USGS produced multi-period and multi-V S30 response spectral values in the 2018 NSHM for calculations of design ground motions and the site coefficients F a and F v were eliminated from the 2020 NEHRP Provisions. As these site coefficients were widely used inside and outside of the United States, in this study we back-calculate the “effective” site coefficients F a,eff , and F v,eff by comparing MPRS for various site classes with the MPRS for the reference site condition, and discuss the changes that are observed in the 2024 IBC compared to its previous version in 2021. The effective site coefficients are presented for test site locations and their dependence on various factors including period, ground motion intensity, and regional models are discussed. Ratio maps between the new effective site coefficients and the old ones are then presented for soft site classes and for short and long periods. For soft site classes at short periods, the new effective site coefficients are lower than the old site coefficients for high seismicity regions and higher for low seismicity regions. As it was expected, for soft site classes at long periods and high seismicity regions, the new effective site coefficients are much larger than the old site coefficients without imposing the 50% increase as a penalty that was suggested in the 2021 IBC, whereas they could be much smaller if the 50% increase would have been imposed particularly around New Madrid and Charleston high seismicity regions. For low seismicity regions, the long period effective site coefficients can be smaller or larger by 20% compared to the 2021 IBC coefficients.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2019

Lava lake thermal pattern classification using self organizing maps and relationships to eruption processes at Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii

Kīlauea Volcano’s active summit lava lake poses hazards to downwind residents and over 1.6 million Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park visitors each year. The lava lake surface is dynamic; crustal plates separated by incandescent cracks move across the lake as magma circulates below. We hypothesize that these dynamic thermal patterns are related to changes in other volcanic processes, such that sequences of thermal images may provide information about eruption parameters that are sometimes difficult to measure. The ability to learn about current gas emissions and seismic activity from a remote thermal time-lapse camera would be beneficial when conditions are too hazardous for field measurements. We apply a machine learning algorithm called self-organizing maps (SOM) to thermal infrared time-lapse images of the lava lake collected hourly over 23 April – 21 October 2013 (n=4354). The SOM algorithm can take thousands of seemingly different images, each representing the spatial distribution of relative temperature across the lava lake surface, and group them into clusters based on their similarities. We then relate the resulting clusters to sulfur dioxide emissions and seismic tremor to characterize ties between the SOM classification and different emplacement conditions. The SOM classification results are highly sensitive to the normalization method applied to the input images. The standard pixel-by-pixel normalization method yields a cluster of images defined by the highest observed SO2 emission levels, elevated surface temperatures, and a high proportion of cracks between crustal plates. When lava lake surface patterns are isolated by minimizing the effect of temperature variation between images, relationships with seismic tremor activity emerge, revealing an “intense spatter” cluster, characterized by unstable, broken-up crustal plate patterns on the lava lake surface. This proof of concept study provides a basis for extending the SOM classification method to hazard forecasting and real-time volcanic monitoring applications, as well as comparative studies at other lava lakes.

Hawaii↗

USGS2021

A survey of storm-induced seaward-transport features observed during the 2019 and 2020 hurricane seasons

Hurricanes are known to play a critical role in reshaping coastlines, but often only impacts on the open ocean coast are considered, ignoring seaward-directed forces and responses. The identification of subaerial evidence for storm-induced seaward transport is a critical step towards understanding its impact on coastal resiliency. The visual features, found in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Geodetic Survey Emergency Response Imagery (ERI) collected after recent hurricanes on the U.S. East Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coasts, include scours and channelized erosion, but also deposition on the shoreface or in the nearshore as deltas and fans of various sizes. We catalog all available ERI and describe recently formed features found on the North Core Banks, North Carolina, after Hurricane Dorian (2019); the Carolina coasts after Hurricane Isaias (2020); the Isles Dernieres, Louisiana, after Hurricane Zeta (2020); and the southwest coast of Louisiana, after Hurricanes Laura and Delta (2020). Hundreds of features were identified over nearly 200 km of coastline with the density of features exceeding 20 per km in some areas. Individual features range in size from 5 m to 500 m in the alongshore, with similar dimensions in the cross-shore direction, including the formation or reactivation of outlets. The extensive occurrence of these storm-induced return-flow and seawardflow morphologic features demonstrates that their role in coastal evolution and resilience may be more prominent than previously thought. Based on these observations we propose clarifying terms for return- and seaward-flow features to distinguish them from more frequently documented landward-flow features and advocate for their inclusion in coastal change hazards classification schemes and coastal evolution morphodynamic models.

southeast United States↗

USGS2024

Geologic input databases for the 2025 Puerto Rico – U.S. Virgin Islands National Seismic Hazard Model update: Crustal faults component

The last National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands (PRVI) was published in 2003. In advance of the 2025 PRVI NSHM update, we created three geologic input databases to summarize new onshore and offshore fault source information in the northern Caribbean region between 62°–70° W and 16°–21° N. These databases, of fault sections, fault‐zone polygons, and geologic estimates of fault activity (fault‐slip rate and earthquake recurrence intervals) at specific sites, document updates to fault parameters used in prior seismic hazard models in PRVI. Fault sources were reviewed from published studies since 2003, which document substantial changes to the understanding of fault location, geometry, or activity. New fault section sources were added for features that meet the criteria of (1) length ≥7 km, (2) unequivocal evidence of recurrent tectonic Quaternary activity, and (3) documentation that is publicly available in a peer‐reviewed source. In addition, we revised several broad areal sources, such as the Mona and Anegada extensional zones. The 2003 model included three fault sections and two fault‐zone polygons (areal sources). These databases include 35 fault sections, 6 fault‐zone polygons, and 51 earthquake geology sites. To characterize fault activity rates, slip‐rate bins were assigned based on landscape expression and paleoseismic trench observations for faults without published slip‐rate sites. Additional fault sources were evaluated but not included in these databases due to a lack of published information about fault location, geometry, or recurrent Quaternary activity. The PRVI NSHM 2025 geologic input databases describe crustal faulting; the geometries and coupling of Puerto Rico subduction zone and Muertos Trough models are considered in a separate database. Updates to the fault sections, fault‐zone polygons, and earthquake geology databases can help inform the location and recurrence rate of damaging earthquakes in the PRVI NSHM implementation.

Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands↗

USGS2010

Geomorphology and depositional subenvironments of Gulf Islands National Seashore, Perdido Key and Santa Rosa Island, Florida

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is studying coastal hazards and coastal change to improve our understanding of coastal ecosystems and to develop better capabilities of predicting future coastal change. One approach to understanding the dynamics of coastal systems is to monitor changes in barrier-island subenvironments through time. This involves examining morphologic and topographic change at temporal scales ranging from millennia to years and spatial scales ranging from tens of kilometers to meters. Of particular interest are the processes that produce those changes and the determination of whether or not those processes are likely to persist into the future. In these analyses of hazards and change, both natural and anthropogenic influences are considered. Quantifying past magnitudes and rates of coastal change and knowing the principal factors that govern those changes are critical to predicting what changes are likely to occur under different scenarios, such as short-term impacts of extreme storms or long-term impacts of sea-level rise. Gulf Islands National Seashore was selected for detailed mapping of barrier-island morphology and topography because the islands offer a diversity of depositional subenvironments and because island areas and positions have changed substantially in historical time. The geomorphologic and subenvironmental maps emphasize the processes that formed the surficial features and also serve as a basis for documenting which subenvironments are relatively stable, such as the vegetated barrier core, and those which are highly dynamic, such as the beach and inactive overwash zones. The primary mapping procedures were supervised functions within a Geographic Information System (GIS) that were applied to delineate and classify depositional subenvironments and features, collectively referred to as map units. The delineated boundaries of the map units were exported to create one shapefile, and are differentiated by the field "Type" in the associated attribute table. Map units were delineated and classified based on differences in tonal patterns of features in contrast to adjacent features observed on orthophotography. Land elevations from recent lidar surveys served as supplementary data to assist in delineating the map unit boundaries.

Florida↗

USGS2008

Investigation and hazard assessment of the 2003 and 2007 Staircase Falls rock falls, Yosemite National Park, California, USA

Since 1857 more than 600 rock falls, rock slides, debris slides, and debris flows have been documented in Yosemite National Park, with rock falls in Yosemite Valley representing the majority of the events. On 26 December 2003, a rock fall originating from west of Glacier Point sent approximately 200 m 3 of rock debris down a series of joint-controlled ledges to the floor of Yosemite Valley. The debris impacted talus near the base of Staircase Falls, producing fragments of flying rock that struck occupied cabins in Curry Village. Several years later on 9 June 2007, and again on 26 July 2007, smaller rock falls originated from the same source area. The 26 December 2003 event coincided with a severe winter storm and was likely triggered by precipitation and/or frost wedging, but the 9 June and 26 July 2007 events lack recognizable triggering mechanisms. We investigated the geologic and hydrologic factors contributing to the Staircase Falls rock falls, including bedrock lithology, weathering, joint spacing and orientations, and hydrologic processes affecting slope stability. We improved upon previous geomorphic assessment of rock-fall hazards, based on a shadow angle approach, by using STONE, a three-dimensional rock-fall simulation computer program. STONE produced simulated rock-fall runout patterns similar to the mapped extent of the 2003 and 2007 events, allowing us to simulate potential future rock falls from the Staircase Falls detachment area. Observations of recent rock falls, mapping of rock debris, and simulations of rock fall runouts beneath the Staircase Falls detachment area suggest that rock-fall hazard zones extend farther downslope than the extent previously defined by mapped surface talus deposits.

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences↗

USGS2002

Nonlinear and linear site response and basin effects in Seattle for the M 6.8 Nisqually, Washington, earthquake

We used recordings of the M 6.8 Nisqually earthquake and its ML 3.4 aftershock to study site response and basin effects for 35 locations in Seattle, Washington. We determined site amplification from Fourier spectral ratios of the recorded horizontal ground motions, referenced to a soft-rock site. Soft-soil sites (generally National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program [NEHRP] class E) on artificial fill and young alluvium have the largest 1-Hz amplifications (factors of 3-7) for both the mainshock and aftershock. These amplifications are correlated with areas of higher damage from the mainshock to major buildings and liquefaction. There are several indications of nonlinear response at the soft-soil sites for the mainshock ground motions, despite relatively modest peak accelerations in the S waves of 15%-22%g. First, the mainshock spectral ratios do not show amplification at 2-8 Hz as do the aftershock spectral ratios. Spectral peaks at frequencies below 2 Hz generally occur at lower frequencies for the mainshock spectral ratios than for the aftershock ratios. At one soft-soil site, there is a clear shift of the resonant frequency to a lower frequency for the mainshock compared with the aftershock. The frequency of this resonance increases in the coda of the mainshock record, indicating that the site response during the weaker motions of the coda is more linear than that of the initial S wave. Three of the soft-soil sites display cusped, one-sided mainshock accelerograms after the S wave. These soft-soil sites also show amplification at 10-20 Hz in the S wave, relative to the rock site, that is not observed for the aftershock. The cusped waveforms and 10-20-Hz amplification are symptomatic of nonlinear response at the soft-soil sites. These sites had nearby liquefaction. The largest amplifications for 0.5 Hz occur at soft-soil sites on the southern portion of the Seattle Basin. Stiff-soil sites (NEHRP classes D and C) on Pleistocene-age glacial deposits display similar spectral amplification for the mainshock and aftershock, indicating approximately linear response. The stiff-soil sites generally have moderate amplification (factors of 1.1-2.4) at 0.5 and 1 Hz. Amplifications at 1 and 5 Hz for all sites generally increase with decreasing shear-wave velocity measured in the top 30 m (Vs 30). However, larger amplifications at 0.5 and 1 Hz for sites with similar Vs 30 values are observed for sites in the Seattle Basin, illustrating the amplification from the deeper (>30 m) sediments and the contribution from basin surface waves. Record sections for the mainshock and aftershock show that basin surface waves produce the peak velocities for many of the sites in the Seattle Basin and often dominate the amplitude at 1 Hz and lower frequencies.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2024

Crop type classification, trends, and patterns of central California agricultural fields from 2005 to 2020

California produces many key agricultural products in the United States. Current geospatial agricultural datasets are limited in mapping accuracy, spatial context, or observation period. This study uses machine learning and high-resolution imagery to produce a time series of crop maps to assess crop type trends and patterns across central California from 2005 to 2020. National Agriculture Imagery Program and Landsat imagery were used to classify nine crop types that are common in the study region: grain crops, field crops, rice, citrus and subtropical, deciduous fruit and nut, vineyard, berry and vegetable, pasture, and fallow/young perennial crop types. To create labeled data, we sampled 1253 fields and manually identified crop types for each examined year using high-resolution imagery and Landsat normalized difference vegetation index time series. We applied a random forest machine learning algorithm in Google Earth Engine. Results show that the mean overall classification accuracy of the nine-class map was 93.1%, with individual accuracies ranging from 99.3% (rice) to 89.5% (fallow/young perennial). Mann–Kendall trend tests showed significant ( p less than 0.05) declines in field crop and pasture area during the study period, while deciduous fruit and nut, citrus and subtropical, and fallow/young perennial crop types experienced significant increases. At an aggregate level, there was a general shift from annual crop types to perennial crop types. These data provide a 16-year time span of spatially explicit crop type classifications, trends, and patterns in central California that can be used to aid managers and decision makers for resource planning or hazard mitigation.

California↗

USGS2023

Magnitude conversion and earthquake recurrence rate models for the central and eastern United States

Development of Seismic Source Characterization (SSC) models, which is an essential part of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analyses (PSHA), can help forecast the temporal and spatial distribution of future damaging earthquakes (𝑀 w ≥ 5) in seismically active regions. Because it is impossible to associate all earthquakes with known faults, seismic source models for PSHA often include sources of diffuse seismicity in which future earthquake scenarios are not localized on mapped faults. These sources of diffuse seismicity are referred to as area source zones, distributed seismicity zones, or just source zones. During the early years of PSHA studies, it was assumed that earthquakes in seismotectonic zones have (1) uniform spatial distribution, (2) Poisson temporal distribution, and (3) exponential magnitude distribution (NRC, 2012). In seismically active regions (e.g., the Western United States), where active faults are readily identified, models of the spatial distribution of earthquakes include both the fault source geometries and the distributed seismicity (background) source zones. Source characterization of active faults is complemented by paleoseismic studies with estimates of earthquake magnitudes, dates of occurrences, and slip rates, which provide important information for PSHA studies. In the Central and Eastern United States (CEUS) very few Quaternary-active faults have the requisite information for use in PSHA (i.e., fault geometry and dimensions, event rates or slip rates, etc.), and we lack knowledge about the causative faults for most observed seismicity in the region. As a result, area source zones are frequently used in site-specific PSHA in the CEUS to represent diffuse seismicity that cannot be associated with faults. However, there are examples of active fault sources in the CEUS, such as the Meers fault, the Cheraw fault, and New Madrid region, where individual faults can be characterized. The source characterization models for background seismicity are based, to a large extent, on an assumption that spatial distribution of historical and recorded seismicity will not change substantially for time periods of interest for PSHA (approximately the next 50-100 years for engineered structures). Furthermore, studies such as those by Kafka (2007, 2009) found a correlation between the locations of small- to moderate-magnitude earthquakes and the locations of large-magnitude earthquakes, indicating that we can, with some level of confidence, use the spatial pattern of smaller earthquakes to forecast the future pattern of damaging earthquakes. Within background seismicity zones, the earthquake rate forecast is developed using spatial smoothing of the small to moderate magnitude events in earthquake catalogs. Different methodologies are used for this purpose and can predict varying distributions of seismicity rates. This in turn affects the results of a seismic hazard analysis. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) use different methods for computing spatially smoothed seismicity rates in the CEUS; the USGS uses kernel-based spatial smoothing methods in developing the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM), and the method adopted in the Central and Eastern United States Seismic Source Characterization (CEUS-SSC) project is used when evaluating seismic hazard for nuclear power plant siting. These methods are described and the impact on seismic hazard are evaluated in this Research Information Letter (RIL). Another important input to estimating the rate of distributed seismicity is event magnitudes listed in earthquake catalogs. A substantial source of uncertainty in catalogs is the magnitude assigned to a given earthquake. Numerous different magnitude types exist, with each magnitude type computed in a different way. Therefore, for the sake of consistency, both the CEUS-SSC and the USGS NSHM have attempted to assemble a complete catalog with a uniform magnitude determination. To this end, moment magnitude, 𝑀 w , which is a physics-based measurement, has been adopted as the standard. However, 𝑀 w was not computed routinely until the past few decades. To address this issue, the CEUS-SSC conducted extensive analyses to determine conversion equations from which to take a routinely computed network (e.g., 𝑀 L or 𝑚 bLg ) and convert it into 𝑀 w . Another issue with using 𝑀 w is that it becomes increasingly difficult to compute for earthquakes with 𝑀 less than ~4. This study investigates the effects of moment magnitude estimation and spatial smoothing methods on estimation of the earthquake rate forecast and on seismic hazard. We investigate the validity of the magnitude conversion equations and their associated uncertainties by applying them to a case study for induced earthquakes in southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma, and summarize the use of the decay of the seismic coda to estimate 𝑀 w for small earthquakes (𝑀 w < 4. Furthermore, the study documents a comparison and assessment of background seismicity smoothing methods implemented by the USGS for the NSHM and used by the CEUS-SSC for siting nuclear facilities based on probabilistic seismic hazard estimates from multiple source zones in the CEUS and for multiple sites.

central and eastern United States↗

USGS2012

Methods of practice and guidelines for using survey-grade global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) to establish vertical datum in the United States Geological Survey

Geodetic surveys have evolved through the years to the use of survey-grade (centimeter level) global positioning to perpetuate and post-process vertical datum. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) uses Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) technology to monitor natural hazards, ensure geospatial control for climate and land use change, and gather data necessary for investigative studies related to water, the environment, energy, and ecosystems. Vertical datum is fundamental to a variety of these integrated earth sciences. Essentially GNSS surveys provide a three-dimensional position x, y, and z as a function of the North American Datum of 1983 ellipsoid and the most current hybrid geoid model. A GNSS survey may be approached with post-processed positioning for static observations related to a single point or network, or involve real-time corrections to provide positioning "on-the-fly." Field equipment required to facilitate GNSS surveys range from a single receiver, with a power source for static positioning, to an additional receiver or network communicated by radio or cellular for real-time positioning. A real-time approach in its most common form may be described as a roving receiver augmented by a single-base station receiver, known as a single-base real-time (RT) survey. More efficient real-time methods involving a Real-Time Network (RTN) permit the use of only one roving receiver that is augmented to a network of fixed receivers commonly known as Continually Operating Reference Stations (CORS). A post-processed approach in its most common form involves static data collection at a single point. Data are most commonly post-processed through a universally accepted utility maintained by the National Geodetic Survey (NGS), known as the Online Position User Service (OPUS). More complex post-processed methods involve static observations among a network of additional receivers collecting static data at known benchmarks. Both classifications provide users flexibility regarding efficiency and quality of data collection. Quality assurance of survey-grade global positioning is often overlooked or not understood and perceived uncertainties can be misleading. GNSS users can benefit from a blueprint of data collection standards used to ensure consistency among USGS mission areas. A classification of GNSS survey qualities provide the user with the ability to choose from the highest quality survey used to establish objective points with low uncertainties, identified as a Level I, to a GNSS survey for general topographic control without quality assurance, identified as a Level IV. A Level I survey is strictly limited to post-processed methods, whereas Level II, Level III, and Level IV surveys integrate variations of a RT approach. Among these classifications, techniques involving blunder checks and redundancy are important, and planning that involves the assessment of the overall satellite configuration, as well as terrestrial and space weather, are necessary to ensure an efficient and quality campaign. Although quality indicators and uncertainties are identified in post-processed methods using CORS, the accuracy of a GNSS survey is most effectively expressed as a comparison to a local benchmark that has a high degree of confidence. Real-time and post-processed methods should incorporate these "trusted" benchmarks as a check during any campaign. Global positioning surveys are expected to change rapidly in the future. The expansion of continuously operating reference stations, combined with newly available satellite signals, and enhancements to the conterminous geoid, are all sufficient indicators for substantial growth in real-time positioning and quality thereof.

Techniques and Methods↗