Magnitude conversion and earthquake recurrence rate models for the central and eastern United States

Seismic source characterization in central and eastern United States

This report documents earthquake geology studies conducted in the central and eastern United States (CEUS) between 2018 and 2023. The overarching goal of the earthquake geology studies was to identify and characterize fault sources in the New Madrid seismic zone, the eastern Tennessee seismic zone, and the Charleston seismic zone. These studies primarily relied on the interpretation of high-resolution topography, morphotectonic analysis of 10-meter (m) digital elevation models, field reconnaissance, and integration with new and existing subsurface datasets. Results from each study are placed into a seismic hazard framework. The first two chapters focus on the New Madrid seismic zone, which is the most seismically active region in the CEUS, to better characterize the southern extent of the Reelfoot fault in the Obion River valley, and identify and characterize proposed faults along the margins of Crowleys Ridge in the center of the Mississippi River embayment. Crowleys Ridge is a ~320-kilometer (km) long landform that has been proposed to be formed by intermittent faulting or erosion from the Mississippi River. Legacy seismic reflection data documented Eocene, Mesozoic, and older strata offset by faults on the margins of the ridge (Van Arsdale et al., 1999). A morphotectonic analysis of the topography along Crowleys Ridge indicated southward increases in catchment hypsometric integral and slope. Neotectonic mapping on high-resolution lidar data revealed a series of subparallel linear fault and fold scarps along the margins of Crowleys Ridge. These scarps offset previously mapped fluvial and alluvial surfaces that were <56 thousand years ago (ka) (Rittenour et al., 2007). Integration of new seismic reflection and airborne electromagnetic data, legacy seismic data, with the landscape morphotectonic analysis and neotectonic mapping supports the interpretation that Crowleys Ridge is bound by faults that have been active in the late Quaternary but do not experience modern seismicity. By placing these newly characterized faults into the regional framework, the Crowleys Ridge faults can be interpreted as thrust faults associated with stepovers in the overall dextral fault system, similar to the Reelfoot fault. The results of these studies indicate that seismicity has migrated eastward during the late Quaternary, with the Reelfoot fault accommodating much of the modern-day strain. The Reelfoot fault ruptured in the 1811-1812 New Madrid earthquake sequence (Fuller, 1912) and has a record of past large earthquakes (Tuttle et al., 2002; 2019). Whereas the northern extent of the fault intersects the Mississippi River and has well-expressed surface deformation, questions remained regarding the southern limit of seismicity, deformation, and overall fault length. Analysis of <25 ka river terraces along the Obion River valley in western Tennessee revealed subtle fold scarps, with increased magnitudes of deformation on progressively older terraces, indicative of a longer record of fault movement than has been documented by paleoseismic and paleoliquefaction studies alone (e.g., Kelson et al., 1996; Gold et al., 2019; Tuttle et al., 2019). The third chapter integrates surface and subsurface data to assess the landscape record of surface deformation in the eastern Tennessee seismic zone (ETSZ), which is the second most seismically active region in the CEUS. Seismicity in the ETSZ is deep (5-26 km) and focused in the Proterozoic rock below the Paleozoic detachment. Although the region has experienced moderate (≤ Mw 4.8) seismicity in the instrumental record, the lack of a large historical earthquake and limited paleoseismic and paleoliquefaction evidence of prehistoric large ground shaking events have made seismic hazard characterization of the region challenging. Two models have emerged to predict the style and orientation of active surface deformation in the ETSZ. One suggests that surface rupturing earthquakes would exploit pre-existing faults along the regional structural grain (Cox et al., 2022). The second model advocates for primarily strike-slip motion on east-west or north-south faults, following analyses of recent seismicity (Chapman et al., 1997; Dunn and Chapman, 2006; Daniels and Peng, 2022) and the modern stress field (Levandowski et al., 2018). In our analysis, neotectonic mapping of high-resolution lidar data reveals a concentration of lineaments with east-west orientations, with some corresponding to previously mapped east-west faults that crosscut the northeast-southwest regional structural grain from the Paleozoic orogeny. A morphotectonic analysis of catchments and river segments within the same lithology indicates subtle differences that may be indicative of a longer-term tectonic uplift signal. These changes in morphotectonic metrics spatially correspond to newly mapped lineaments and previously mapped east-west trending faults. Within a regional framework, we suggest that diffuse surface deformation associated with deep seismicity is accommodated on a network on east-west faults. However, further work is needed to better understand the potential late Pleistocene fault activity of these lineaments, and we propose that the ETSZ is still best characterized as an area source in seismic hazard models. The final chapter presents preliminary work to create a geographic information system (GIS) database of recent studies analyzing surface and subsurface datasets and interpretations in the Charleston seismic zone, South Carolina. This GIS database will serve as a foundation for future work to analyze new quality level 1 (QL1; <0.5 m resolution) lidar data over the 1886 magnitude (M) 7 Charleston epicentral region to identify possible fault source sources responsible for the 1886 or other surface-rupturing events. This chapter briefly summarizes three new subsurface datasets, including seismic reflection (Pratt et al., 2022; Liberty, 2022) and seismicity data (Chapman et al., 2016), and one new surface dataset (Marple and Hurd, 2020), and their interpretations of potentially active lineaments and faults in the region.