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At least 127 records · Page 7Linked to original sources

An online operational rainfall-monitoring resource for epidemic malaria early warning systems in Africa

Periodic epidemics of malaria are a major public health problem for many sub-Saharan African countries. Populations in epidemic prone areas have a poorly developed immunity to malaria and the disease remains life threatening to all age groups. The impact of epidemics could be minimized by prediction and improved prevention through timely vector control and deployment of appropriate drugs. Malaria Early Warning Systems are advocated as a means of improving the opportunity for preparedness and timely response. Rainfall is one of the major factors triggering epidemics in warm semi-arid and desert-fringe areas. Explosive epidemics often occur in these regions after excessive rains and, where these follow periods of drought and poor food security, can be especially severe. Consequently, rainfall monitoring forms one of the essential elements for the development of integrated Malaria Early Warning Systems for sub-Saharan Africa, as outlined by the World Health Organization. The Roll Back Malaria Technical Resource Network on Prevention and Control of Epidemics recommended that a simple indicator of changes in epidemic risk in regions of marginal transmission, consisting primarily of rainfall anomaly maps, could provide immediate benefit to early warning efforts. In response to these recommendations, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network produced maps that combine information about dekadal rainfall anomalies, and epidemic malaria risk, available via their Africa Data Dissemination Service. These maps were later made available in a format that is directly compatible with HealthMapper, the mapping and surveillance software developed by the WHO's Communicable Disease Surveillance and Response Department. A new monitoring interface has recently been developed at the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) that enables the user to gain a more contextual perspective of the current rainfall estimates by comparing them to previous seasons and climatological averages. These resources are available at no cost to the user and are updated on a routine basis.

Malaria Journal↗

Remote sensing of actual evapotranspiration from croplands

Agriculture accounted for the majority of human water use and for more than 90% of global freshwater consumption during the twentieth century (Hoekstra and Mekonnen, 2012; Shiklomanov, 2000). Streamflow depletion due to enhanced evapotranspiration (ET) from irrigated crops impacts freshwater ecosystems globally (Foley et al., 2005). Water scarcity limits crop production in many arid and semiarid regions, and water is likely to be a key resource limiting food production and food security in the twenty-first century (Foley et al., 2011; Vorosmarty et al., 2000). Despite this, estimates of the location and temporal dynamics of ET from croplands are often uncertain at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Better information on ET can be useful in several applications at a range of spatial scales, including water resources, agronomy, and meteorology (e.g., Rivas and Caselles, 2004). At the scale of irrigation projects, maps of ET can assist with irrigation scheduling and demand assessment. Measurements of ET are required for monitoring plant water requirements, plant growth, and productivity, as well as for irrigation management and deciding when to carry out cultivation procedures (e.g., Consolli et al., 2006; Glenn et al., 2007; Yang et al., 2010).

Book chapter↗

Remote sensing of evapotranspiration for operational drought monitoring using principles of water and energy balance

Evapotranspiration (ET) is an important component of the hydrologic budget because it režects the exchange of mass and energy between the soil-water-vegetation system and the atmosphere. Prevailing weather conditions inžuence potential or reference ET through variables such as radiation, temperature, wind, and relativity humidity. In addition to these weather variables, actual ET (ETa) is also affected by land cover type and condition, as well as soil moisture. The dependence of ETa on land cover and soil moisture, and its direct relationship with carbon dioxide assimilation in plants, makes it an important variable for monitoring drought, crop yield, and biomass-a critical capability for decision makers interested in food security, grain markets, water allocation, and carbon sequestration (Bastiaanssen et al., 2005).

Book chapter↗

Future opportunities and challenges in remote sensing of drought

The value of satellite remote sensing for drought monitoring was first realized more than two decades ago with the application of Normalized Difference Index (NDVI) data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) for assessing the effect of drought on vegetation. Other indices such as the Vegetation Health Index (VHI) were also developed during this time period, and applied to AVHRR NDVI and brightness temperature data for routine global monitoring of drought conditions. These early efforts demonstrated the unique perspective that global imagers such as AVHRR could provide for operational drought monitoring through their near-daily, global observations of Earth's land surface. However, the advancement of satellite remote sensing of drought was limited by the relatively few spectral bands of operational global sensors such as AVHRR, along with a relatively short period of observational record. Remote sensing advancements are of paramount importance given the increasing demand for tools that can provide accurate, timely, and integrated information on drought conditions to facilitate proactive decision making (NIDIS, 2007). Satellite-based approaches are key to addressing significant gaps in the spatial and temporal coverage of current surface station instrument networks providing key moisture observations (e.g., rainfall, snow, soil moisture, ground water, and ET) over the United States and globally (NIDIS, 2007). Improved monitoring capabilities will be particularly important given increases in spatial extent, intensity, and duration of drought events observed in some regions of the world, as reported in the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report (IPCC, 2007). The risk of drought is anticipated to further increase in some regions in response to climatic changes in the hydrologic cycle related to evaporation, precipitation, air temperature, and snow cover (Burke et al., 2006; IPCC, 2007; USGCRP, 2009). Numerous national, regional, and global efforts such as the Famine and Early Warning System (FEWS), National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), and Group on Earth Observations (GEO), as well as the establishment of regional drought centers (e.g., European Drought Observatory) and geospatial visualization and monitoring systems (e.g, NASA SERVIR) have been undertaken to improve drought monitoring and early warning systems throughout the world. The suite of innovative remote sensing tools that have recently emerged will be looked upon to fill important data and knowledge gaps (NIDIS, 2007; NRC, 2007) to address a wide range of drought-related issues including food security, water scarcity, and human health.

Book chapter↗

Developing index maps of water-harvest potential in Africa

The food security problem in Africa is tied to the small farmer, whose subsistence farming relies heavily on rain-fed agriculture. A dry spell lasting two to three weeks can cause a significant yield reduction. A small-scale irrigation scheme from small-capacity ponds can alleviate this problem. This solution would require a water harvest mechanism at a farm level. In this study, we looked at the feasibility of implementing such a water harvest mechanism in drought prone parts of Africa. A water balance study was conducted at different watershed levels. Runoff (watershed yield) was estimated using the SCS curve number technique and satellite derived rainfall estimates (RFE). Watersheds were delineated from the Africa-wide HYDRO-1K digital elevation model (DEM) data set in a GIS environment. Annual runoff volumes that can potentially be stored in a pond during storm events were estimated as the product of the watershed area and runoff excess estimated from the SCS Curve Number method. Estimates were made for seepage and net evaporation losses. A series of water harvest index maps were developed based on a combination of factors that took into account the availability of runoff, evaporation losses, population density, and the required watershed size needed to fill a small storage reservoir that can be used to alleviate water stress during a crop growing season. This study presents Africa-wide water-harvest index maps that could be used for conducting feasibility studies at a regional scale in assessing the relative differences in runoff potential between regions for the possibility of using ponds as a water management tool. ?? 2004 American Society of Agricultural Engineers.

Applied Engineering in Agriculture↗

Novel insights into serodiagnosis and epidemiology of Erysipelothrix rhusiopathiae, a newly recognized pathogen in muskoxen (Ovibos moschatus)

Muskoxen are a key species of Arctic ecosystems and are important for food security and socio-economic well-being of many Indigenous communities in the Arctic and Subarctic. Between 2009 and 2014, the bacterium Erysipelothrix rhusiopathiae was isolated for the first time in this species in association with multiple mortality events in Canada and Alaska, raising questions regarding the spatiotemporal occurrence of the pathogen and its potential impact on muskox populations.

Alaska, Yukon, Northwester Territories, Nunavut↗

An integrated framework for examining groundwater vulnerability in the Mekong River Delta region

The Mekong River provides water, food security, and many other valuable benefits to the more than 60 million Southeast Asian residents living within its basin. However, the Mekong River Basin is increasingly stressed by changes in climate, land cover, and infrastructure. These changes can affect water quantity and quality and exacerbate related hazards such as land subsidence and saltwater intrusion, resulting in multiple compounding risks for neighboring communities. In this study, we demonstrate the connection between climate change, groundwater availability, and social vulnerability by linking the results of a numerical groundwater model to land cover and socioeconomic data at the Cambodia-Vietnam border in the Mekong River Delta region. We simulated changes in groundwater availability across 20 years and identified areas of potential water stress based on domestic and agriculture-related freshwater demands. We then assessed adaptive capacity to understand how communities may be able to respond to this stress to better understand the growing risk of groundwater scarcity driven by climate change and overextraction. This study offers a novel approach for assessing risk of groundwater scarcity by linking the effects of climate change to the socioeconomic context in which they occur. Increasing our understanding of how changes in groundwater availability may affect local populations can help water managers better plan for the future, leading to more resilient communities.

PLoS ONE↗

Assessing and implementing the concept of Blue Economy in Laurentian Great Lakes fisheries: Lessons from coupled human and natural systems

Inland fisheries often receive little to no attention in global discussions about sustainable development. The consequences of overlooking inland fisheries in sustainability dialogues are increasingly problematic as fisheries stressors (e.g., overharvest, species invasion, climate change, habitat modification) intensify. Elevating the global profile of inland fisheries requires an approach for quantifying and clearly conveying the ecological, economic, and societal values of these systems. One such approach involves the Blue Economy, a multifaceted concept initially used to describe the intersection of marine conservation and sustainable use of marine resources for economic growth. Although conceptually powerful, the Blue Economy has rarely been applied to inland waters and fisheries. To address this knowledge gap, we conceptualized Laurentian Great Lakes fisheries from a Blue Economy perspective. In particular, we evaluated the utility of the coupled human and natural systems (CHANS) framework for characterizing the ecological, economic, and societal values of Laurentian Great Lakes fisheries and associated contributions to the Blue Economy (e.g., human livelihoods, food security, recreation, conservation, economic prosperity). There are numerous opportunities to leverage CHANS methods (e.g., metacoupling, telecoupling) and associated mathematical models to advance fisheries science, inform fisheries management, and ultimately move toward a Blue Economy in the Laurentian Great Lakes. To that end, we demonstrated applications of CHANS methods, discussed strategies for communicating with stakeholders, and provided insights for navigating challenges to developing a Blue Economy in the Laurentian Great Lakes—a model that could be used in the African Great Lakes and other large ecosystems in the world.

Laurentian Great Lakes↗

A decade of Indigenous knowledge research in the Yukon River basin: Reflection on “Indigenous observations of change in the lower Yukon River basin, Alaska”

Herman-Mercer reflects on her first article" Indigenous Observations of Change in the Lower Yukon River Basin, Alaska." The observations and knowledge presented in this study have become part of an ever-growing catalog of studies representing, and part of a chorus of Indigenous communities across the Arctic and Subarctic conveying, the impacts of climate change in this region. The broad observations of environmental change reported in Indigenous Observations 2011, including impacts to subsistence and safety, are more dire and apparent than ten years ago when this article was published. Instances of diseased salmon continue to be reported by subsistence fishers, and the salmon runs have declined so severely since Indigenous Observations 2011 was published that there have been several years in which the commercial and or the subsistence salmon fishery was closed on the Yukon River, with impacts to household economies, food security, and culture. The then-new dangers associated with travel on river ice continue to be a concern across the Yukon River where the thinner river ice and inconsistent freeze up and break up have become the norm.

Alaska↗

Revolutionary land use change in the 21st century: Is (rangeland) science relevant?

Rapidly increasing demand for food, fiber, and fuel together with new technologies and the mobility of global capital are driving revolutionary changes in land use throughout the world. Efforts to increase land productivity include conversion of millions of hectares of rangelands to crop production, including many marginal lands with low resistance and resilience to degradation. Sustaining the productivity of these lands requires careful land use planning and innovative management systems. Historically, this responsibility has been left to agronomists and others with expertise in crop production. In this article, we argue that the revolutionary land use changes necessary to support national and global food security potentially make rangeland science more relevant now than ever. Maintaining and increasing relevance will require a revolutionary change in range science from a discipline that focuses on a particular land use or land cover to one that addresses the challenge of managing all lands that, at one time, were considered to be marginal for crop production. We propose four strategies to increase the relevance of rangeland science to global land management: 1) expand our awareness and understanding of local to global economic, social, and technological trends in order to anticipate and identify drivers and patterns of conversion; 2) emphasize empirical studies and modeling that anticipate the biophysical (ecosystem services) and societal consequences of large-scale changes in land cover and use; 3) significantly increase communication and collaboration with the disciplines and sectors of society currently responsible for managing the new land uses; and 4) develop and adopt a dynamic and flexible resilience-based land classification system and data-supported conceptual models (e.g., state-and-transition models) that represent all lands, regardless of use and the consequences of land conversion to various uses instead of changes in state or condition that are focused on a single land use.

Rangeland Ecology and Management↗

Microfaunal recording of recent environmental changes in the Herschel Basin, western Arctic Ocean

Microfaunal assemblages of benthic foraminifera, ostracods, and tintinnids from two marine sediment cores retrieved from the Herschel Basin of the Canadian Beaufort Sea shelf document relationships with environmental parameters such as salinity, sea-ice cover, and turbulence. Cores YC18-HB-GC01 and PG2303-1 were collected at 18 and 32 m water depth, respectively. At these sites, sediment accumulation rates range between 0.6 and 1.7 cm yr –1 allowing a near-annual temporal resolution over the last 50 years. Multivariate analyses indicate that benthic foraminiferal assemblages respond primarily to food supply. Dissimilarities between the microfaunal assemblages of the two cores are mainly the result of bottom water salinity levels linked to water depth. High abundance of the benthic foraminiferal species Elphidium clavatum and occurrences of Elphidium bartletti point to varying, but relatively low, salinities at the shallow core site YC18-HB-GC01, which may be affected by variations in the summer halocline depth. Higher species diversity and more abundant Cassidulina reniforme and Stainforthia feylingi characterize the deeper core PG2303-1, which might reflect more stable conditions and higher bottom-water salinities throughout the studied time interval. The most important microfaunal shift of the last 50 years, observed in the shallower longer core YC18-HB-GC01, occurred at the turn of the 21 st century. Prior to ∼2000 CE, the presence of Islandiella norcrossi indicates more stable and saline conditions. Since ∼2000 CE, increased abundances of Haynesina nivea and of the ciliate Tintinnopsis fimbriata suggest decreased salinity and increased turbidity. An increased abundance of Eoeponidella pulchella after ∼2000 CE suggests a concurrent increase in productivity in the last two decades. This shift is nearly synchronous with a decrease in mean summer sea-ice concentration, which can play an important role in bottom water stability on the shelf. Easterly winds can induce a reduction in the sea-ice cover, but also foster a westward spreading of the Mackenzie River plume and the upwelling of nutrient-rich Pacific waters onto the shelf. Both factors would explain the increased freshening and productivity of the Herschel Basin. The last two decades were also marked by a decrease in ostracod abundance that may relate to higher water turbidity. This study shows that combining information from benthic foraminifera, ostracods, and tintinnids provides a comprehensive insight into recent hydrographic/climatic changes in nearshore Arctic habitats, where productivity is critical for the food security of local communities.

Herschel Basin↗

Examining inter-regional and intra-seasonal differences in wintering waterfowl landscape associations among Pacific and Atlantic flyways

The Central Valley of California (CVC) and Mid-Atlantic (MA) in the U.S. are both critical sites for nationwide food security (California Poultry Federation 2016, Prosser et al. 2017), and many waterfowl species annually, especially during the winter, providing feeding and roosting locations for a variety of species. Mapping waterfowl distributions, using NEXRAD, may aid in the adaptive management of important waterfowl habitat and allow various government agencies to better understand the interface between wild and domestic birds and commercial agricultural practices. We used 9 years (2014–2023) of data from the US NEXRAD network to model winter waterfowl relative abundance in the CVC and MA as a function of weather, temporal period, environmental conditions, and landcover characteristics using Boosted Regression Tree modelling. We were able to quantify the variability in effect size of 28 different covariates across space and time within two geographic regions which are critical to nationwide waterfowl management and host a high density of nationally important commercial agriculture. In general, weather, geographic (distance to features), and landcover condition (wetness index) predictors had the strongest relative effect on predicting wintering waterfowl relative abundance in both regions, while effects of land cover composition were more regionally and temporally specific. Increased daily mean temperature was a major predictor of increasing relative waterfowl abundance in both regions throughout the winter. Increasing precipitation had differing effects within regions, increasing relative waterfowl abundance in the MA, while decreasing in general within the CVC. Increasing relative waterfowl abundance in the CVC are strongly tied to the flooding of the landscape and rice availability, whereas waterfowl in the MA, where water is less limiting, are generally governed by waste grain availability and emergent wetland on the landscape. Waterfowl relative abundance in the MA was generally higher nearer to the Atlantic coast and lakes, while in the CVC they were higher nearer to lakes. Our findings promote a better understanding of spatial associations of waterfowl to landscape features and may aid in conservation and biosecurity management protocols.

Authorea↗

U.S. Geological Survey 21st-Century science strategy 2020–2030

Today’s Earth system challenges are far more complex and urgent than those that existed in 1879 when the USGS was established. Society’s greatest challenges are directly or indirectly linked to major areas of USGS science. Increased pressures on natural resources continue with consequences for national security, food and water availability, natural disasters, human health, and biodiversity loss. As we look forward 10, 20, and 30 years, our mission will be more important than ever before. A broad but coherent view is required for stewardship of the Nation’s land, water, mineral, energy, and ecosystem resources, which involves complex tradeoffs among multiple, often competing objectives. Increasingly, resource managers and decision makers need “the whole USGS”: integrated multidisciplinary Earth and biological science data, geospatial tools, predictive models, decision-support tools, and the expertise to interpret them. This Science Strategy defines a vision and mission for how we will continue to evolve USGS Science to address these Earth system challenges.

Circular↗

A climate trend analysis of Kenya-August 2010

Introduction This brief report draws from a multi-year effort by the United States Agency for International Development's Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) to monitor and map rainfall and temperature trends over the last 50 years (1960-2009) in Kenya. Observations from seventy rainfall gauges and seventeen air temperature stations were analyzed for the long rains period, corresponding to March through June (MAMJ). The data were quality controlled, converted into 1960-2009 trend estimates, and interpolated using a rigorous geo-statistical technique (kriging). Kriging produces standard error estimates, and these can be used to assess the relative spatial accuracy of the identified trends. Dividing the trends by the associated errors allows us to identify the relative certainty of our estimates (Funk and others, 2005; Verdin and others, 2005; Brown and Funk, 2008; Funk and Verdin, 2009). Assuming that the same observed trends persist, regardless of whether or not these changes are due to anthropogenic or natural cyclical causes, these results can be extended to 2025, providing critical, and heretofore missing information about the types and locations of adaptation efforts that may be required to improve food security.

Fact Sheet↗

A climate trend analysis of Uganda

This brief report, drawing from a multi-year effort by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), identifies observed changes in rainfall and temperature in Uganda, based on an analysis of a quality-controlled, long time series of station observations throughout Uganda. Extending recent trends forward, it also provides a current and near-future context for understanding the actual nature of climate change impacts in the country, and a basis for identifying climate adaptations that may protect and improve the country's food security.

Fact Sheet↗

U.S. Geological Survey streamgage network in the Upper Colorado River Basin—Recording the hydrologic history of the Western United States

Introduction Water supply in the Western United States is an essential resource, and the collection of accurate and timely water information is fundamental to effectively managing water resources in the region. Efforts to document the hydrology in the Colorado River Basin are vital to life in the Western United States. These efforts began as far back as the initial John Wesley Powell exploration of the Colorado River and its tributaries in the summer of 1869. Shortly after, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) was created in 1879, and the first USGS systematic measurement of streamflow began at the first streamgage, 08279500 Rio Grande at Embudo, New Mexico, in 1889. During its 146-year existence, the USGS has served the citizens of the United States in many roles, notably through long-standing stewardship in water science. For example, the USGS has collected hydrologic information at strategic locations within the Western United States to support water resource management, flood forecasting and response, interbasin water transfers, hydropower generation, municipal and agricultural water supplies, food security, recreation, habitat preservation, international treaty obligations and river compact compliance, and the operation of major water-storage projects, including Lake Powell and Lake Mead bordering Utah and Arizona, and Nevada and Arizona, respectively.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗

Selected effects of the Conservation Reserve Program on program participants: A report to survey respondents

The Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) established under the 1985 Food Security Act was initially designed to provide the agricultural community economic assistance while protecting highly erodible cropland. Many of the environmental benefits to soil, water, and wildlife resources have been documented (Dunn and others, 1993; Ryan and others, 1998; Flather and others, 1999; Heard and others, 2000). However, the personal and social effects of the program on CRP participants (or contractees) had not been formally documented. Information had been limited to anecdotal comments from individual participants, such as: “since establishment of the CRP the streams have surface water in them” or “the CRP grasses capture drifting snow, making winter feeding of cattle easier.” The Farm Service Agency (FSA) and Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) wanted to have a better picture of the strengths and weaknesses of the program, according to those most affected by it. In addition, policy makers wanted to get input from program participants on the growing emphasis of the program on long-term management and wildlife habitat requirements. As a result, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) was asked to survey CRP contractees on these issues. Preliminary results from this study have been furnished to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and are being considered as new conservation and management policies for the CRP are being developed (as part of the recently passed Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002). This report includes preliminary results of the study and is being sent to survey respondents. A formal publication of survey results is also being prepared and should be completed by the winter of 2002.

Open-File Report↗

Development of sea level rise scenarios for climate change assessments of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

Rising sea level poses critical ecological and economical consequences for the low-lying megadeltas of the world where dependent populations and agriculture are at risk. The Mekong Delta of Vietnam is one of many deltas that are especially vulnerable because much of the land surface is below mean sea level and because there is a lack of coastal barrier protection. Food security related to rice and shrimp farming in the Mekong Delta is currently under threat from saltwater intrusion, relative sea level rise, and storm surge potential. Understanding the degree of potential change in sea level under climate change is needed to undertake regional assessments of potential impacts and to formulate adaptation strategies. This report provides constructed time series of potential sea level rise scenarios for the Mekong Delta region by incorporating (1) aspects of observed intra- and inter-annual sea level variability from tide records and (2) projected estimates for different rates of regional subsidence and accelerated eustacy through the year 2100 corresponding with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate models and emission scenarios.

Open-File Report↗