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At least 127 records · Page 7Linked to original sources
USGS2010

Volcanic hazards and their mitigation: progress and problems

At the beginning of the twentieth century, volcanology began to emerge as a modern science as a result of increased interest in eruptive phenomena following some of the worst volcanic disasters in recorded history: Krakatau (Indonesia) in 1883 and Mont Pelée (Martinique), Soufrière (St. Vincent), and Santa María (Guatemala) in 1902. Volcanology is again experiencing a period of heightened public awareness and scientific growth in the 1980s, the worst period since 1902 in terms of volcanic disasters and crises. A review of hazards mitigation approaches and techniques indicates that significant advances have been made in hazards assessment, volcano monitoring, and eruption forecasting. For example, the remarkable accuracy of the predictions of dome-building events at Mount St. Helens since June 1980 is unprecedented. Yet a predictive capability for more voluminous and explosive eruptions still has not been achieved. Studies of magma-induced seismicity and ground deformation continue to provide the most systematic and reliable data for early detection of precursors to eruptions and shallow intrusions. In addition, some other geophysical monitoring techniques and geochemical methods have been refined and are being more widely applied and tested. Comparison of the four major volcanic disasters of the 1980s (Mount St. Helens, U.S.A. (1980), El Chichón, Mexico (1982); Galunggung, Indonesia (1982); and Nevado del Ruíz, Colombia (1985) illustrates the importance of predisaster geoscience studies, volcanic hazards assessments, volcano monitoring, contingency planning, and effective communications between scientists and authorities. The death toll (>22,000) from the Ruíz catastrophe probably could have been greatly reduced; the reasons for the tragically ineffective implementation of evacuation measures are still unclear and puzzling in view of the fact that sufficient warnings were given. The most pressing problem in the mitigation of volcanic and associated hazards on a global scale is that most of the world's dangerous volcanoes are in densely populated countries that lack the economic and scientific resources or the political will to adequately study and monitor them. This problem afflicts both developed and developing countries, but it is especially acute for the latter. The greatest advances in volcanic hazards mitigation in the near future are most likely to be achieved by wider application of existing technology to poorly understood and studied volcanoes, rather than by refinements or new discoveries in technology alone.

Reviews of Geophysics↗
USGS2015

Developing a new, passive diffusion sampling array to detect helium anomalies associated with volcanic unrest

Helium (He) concentration and 3 He/ 4 He anomalies in soil gas and spring water are potentially powerful tools for investigating hydrothermal circulation associated with volca- nism and could perhaps serve as part of a hazards warning system. However, in operational practice, He and other gases are often sampled only after volcanic unrest is detected by other means. A new passive diffusion sampler suite, intended to be collected after the onset of unrest, has been developed and tested as a relatively low-cost method of determining He- isotope composition pre- and post-unrest. The samplers, each with a distinct equilibration time, passively record He concen- tration and isotope ratio in springs and soil gas. Once collected and analyzed, the He concentrations in the samplers are used to deconvolve the time history of the He concentration and the 3 He/ 4 He ratio at the collection site. The current suite consisting of three samplers is sufficient to deconvolve both the magnitude and the timing of a step change in in situ con- centration if the suite is collected within 100 h of the change. The effects of temperature and prolonged deployment on the suite ’ s capability of recording He anomalies have also been evaluated. The suite has captured a significant 3 He/ 4 He soil gas anomaly at Horseshoe Lake near Mammoth Lakes, California. The passive diffusion sampler suite appears to be an accurate and affordable alternative for determining He anomalies associated with volcanic unrest.

Bulletin of Volcanology↗
USGS2024

Event classification, seismicity, and eruption forecasting at Great Sitkin Volcano, Alaska: 1999–2023

The frequency content of volcanogenic seismicity is often used to classify events and their spatial and temporal progression is then used to map subsurface volcanic processes. The progression of volcano-seismic events and associated source processes also plays a critical role in eruption forecasting. Here we develop and evaluate a computerized methodology for characterizing volcano-seismic event types using Frequency Index and Average Peak Frequency. We apply and test this technique at Great Sitkin Volcano, Alaska, classifying over 9000 hypocenters between 1999 and 2023. This 24-year time span covers periods of seismic quiescence, earthquake activity on nearby tectonic (bookshelf) faults, precursory unrest from 2016 to 2021, and the explosive onset in May 2021 of the ongoing effusive eruption. We use the spatial and temporal evolution of classified event types to map the active volcanic and tectonic processes, develop a conceptual model of the subsurface magmatic system, and perform a retrospective analysis of eruption forecasts at Great Sitkin Volcano between 2016 and the present. The classification and progression of hypocenters suggests the subsurface Great Sitkin Volcano magmatic system consists of a mid- to lower- crustal source zone between 10 and 40 km depth and an upper crustal magma storage area between −1 and 10 km depth (hypocenter depth is referenced to sea level and negative depths reflect height above sea level). The earliest precursors occurred in July 2016 and consisted of deep long-period and volcano-tectonic earthquakes at mid-crustal depths suggesting the subsequent unrest and eruption were triggered by a deeper intrusion of magma. This mid-crustal seismic activity was immediately followed by the onset upper-crustal long-period events and volcano-tectonic earthquakes VTs suggesting a strong linkage between the shallow and deeper portions of the magmatic system. The upper crustal area was likely capped by the 1974 lava dome until the magmatic explosion on May 26, 2021.

Alaska↗
USGS2000

Nuées ardentes of 22 November 1994 at Merapi volcano, Java, Indonesia

Nuées ardentes associated with dome collapse on 22 November 1994, at Merapi volcano traveled to the south–southwest as far as 6.5 km, and collectively accumulated roughly 2.5–3 million cubic meters of deposits. The damaged area comprises 9.5 km 2 and is covered by two nuée ardente facies, a conventional “Merapi-type”, valley-fill block-and-ash flow facies and a pyroclastic surge facies. The proximal deposits reflect the accumulation of dozens of nuées ardentes, with many subsidiary flow units. The distal deposits are more simply organized, as only a few individual events reached to distances >3.5 km. The stratigraphic relationships north of Turgo hill indicate that the surge deposits are a facies of particularly mobile nuées ardentes that also deposited channeled block-and-ash flow facies. They further suggest that the surge facies beyond the channel margins correlate laterally with a finer-grained sublayer locally developed at the base of the block-and-ash flow facies. Eyewitness reports suggest that the emplacement of the block-and-ash flow facies in the distal part of the Boyong river may have followed, by a short time interval, the destruction and deposition of the surge facies at Turgo village. The stratigraphy is in accord with the eyewitness reports. The surge facies was emplaced by a dilute surge current, detached from the same dome-collapse nuée ardente that, as a separate flow unit, subsequently emplaced the distal block-and-ash deposit in the Boyong valley. The detachment occurred at higher elevations, likely at or above the slope break at about 2000 m elevation. This flow separation enabled the surge current to shortcut over the landscape and to emplace its deposit even as the block-and-ash flow continued its tortuous southward movement in the Boyong channel. Dome-collapse nuée ardente activity formed the bulk of the eruption, which was accompanied by virtually no significant vertical summit explosive activity.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗
USGS1993

Deformation of the Wineglass Welded Tuff and the timing of caldera collapse at Crater Lake, Oregon

Four types of deformation occur in the Wineglass Welded Tuff on the northeast caldera rim of Crater Lake: (a) vertical tension fractures; (b) ooze-outs of fiamme: (c) squeeze-outs of fiamme; and (d) horizontal pull-apart structures. The three types of plastic deformation (b-d) developed in the lower part of the Wineglass Welded Tuff where degree of welding and density are maximum. Deformation originated from concentric normal faulting and landsliding as the caldera collapsed. The degree of deformation of the Wineglass Welded Tuff increases toward the northeast part of the caldera, where plastic deformation occurred more easily because of a higher emplacement temperature probably due to proximity to the vent. The probable glass transition temperature of the Wineglass Welded Tuff suggests that its emplacement temperature was ???750??C where the tuff is densely welded. Calculation of the conductive cooling history of the Wineglass Welded Tuff and the preclimactic Cleetwood (lava) flow under assumptions of a initially isothermal sheet and uniform properties suggests that (a) caldera collapse occurred a maximum of 9 days after emplacement of the Wineglass Welded Tuff, and that (b) the period between effusion of the Cleetwood (lava) flow and onset of the climactic eruption was <100 years. If cooling is controlled more by precipitation during quiescent periods than by conduction, these intervals must be shorter than the calculated times.

Oregon↗
USGS2017

Emplacement of Holocene silicic lava flows and domes at Newberry, South Sister, and Medicine Lake volcanoes, California and Oregon

This field guide for the International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth’s Interior (IAVCEI) Scientific Assembly 2017 focuses on Holocene glassy silicic lava flows and domes on three volcanoes in the Cascade Range in Oregon and California: Newberry, South Sister, and Medicine Lake volcanoes. Although obsidian-rich lava flows have been of interest to geologists, archaeologists, pumice miners, and rock hounds for more than a century, many of their emplacement characteristics had not been scientifically observed until two very recent eruptions in Chile. Even with the new observations, several eruptive processes discussed in this field trip guide can only be inferred from their final products. This makes for lively debates at outcrops, just as there have been in the literature for the past 30 years. Of the three volcanoes discussed in this field guide, one (South Sister) lies along the main axis defined by major peaks of the Cascade Range, whereas the other two lie in extensional tectonic settings east of the axis. These two tectonic environments influence volcano morphology and the magmatic and volcanic processes that form silicic lava flows and domes. The geomorphic and textural features of glass-rich extrusions provide many clues about their emplacement and the magma bodies that fed them. The scope of this field guide does not include a full geologic history or comprehensive explanation of hazards associated with a particular volcano or volcanic field. The geochemistry, petrology, tectonics, and eruption history of Newberry, South Sister, and Medicine Lake volcanic centers have been extensively studied and are discussed on other field excursions. Instead, we seek to explore the structural, textural, and geochemical evolution of well-preserved individual lava flows—the goal is to understand the geologic processes, rather than the development, of a specific volcano.

California, Oregon↗
USGS2023

Cost-benefit analysis for evacuation decision-support: Challenges and possible solutions for applications in areas of distributed volcanism

During a volcanic crisis, evacuation is the most effective mitigation measure to preserve life. However, the decision to call an evacuation is typically complex and challenging, in part due to uncertainties related to the behaviour of the volcano. Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) can support decision-makers: this approach compares the cost of evacuating versus the expected loss from not evacuating, expressed as a ‘break-even’ probability of fatality. Here we combine CBA with a Bayesian Event Tree for Short-term Volcanic Hazard (BET_VHst) to create an evacuation decision-support tool to identify locations that are cost-beneficial to evacuate in the event of volcanic unrest within a distributed volcanic field. We test this approach with the monogenetic Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF), situated beneath the city of Auckland, New Zealand. We develop a BET_VHst for the AVF, extending a recently revised Bayesian Event Tree for Eruption Forecasting (BET_EF) to consider the eruptive style, phenomena produced, and the impact exceedance probability as a function of distance. The output of the BET_VHst is a probability of volcanic hazard impact at a given location. Furthermore, we propose amending the weight of the monitoring component within the BET_VHst framework to a transitional parameter, addressing limitations identified in a previous study. We examine how three possible transitional monitoring component weights affect the spatial vent likelihood and subsequent BET_VHst outputs, compared to the current default weight. For the CBA, we investigate four thresholds, based on two evacuation durations and two different estimates for the value of life that determine the cost of not evacuating. The combinations of CBA and BET_VHst are tested using a synthetic unrest dataset to define an evacuation area for each day. While suitable evacuation areas were identified, there are further considerations required before such an approach can be applied operationally to support crisis management.

Auckland Volcanic Field vent↗
USGS2023

Coordinating science during an eruption: Lessons from the 2020–2021 Kīlauea volcanic eruption

Data collected during well-observed eruptions can lead to dramatic increases in our understanding of volcanic processes. However, the necessary prioritization of public safety and hazard mitigation during a crisis means that scientific opportunities may be sacrificed. Thus, maximizing the scientific gains from eruptions requires improved planning and coordinating science activities among governmental organizations and academia before and during volcanic eruptions. One tool to facilitate this coordination is a Scientific Advisory Committee (SAC). In the USA, the Community Network for Volcanic Eruption Response (CONVERSE) has been developing and testing this concept during workshops and scenario-based activities. The December 2020 eruption of Kīlauea volcano, Hawaii, provided an opportunity to test and refine this model in real-time and in a real-world setting. We present here the working model of a SAC developed during this eruption. Successes of the Kīlauea SAC (K-SAC) included broadening the pool of scientists involved in eruption response and developing and codifying procedures that may form the basis of operation for future SACs. Challenges encountered by the K-SAC included a process of review and facilitation of research proposals that was too slow to include outside participation in the early parts of the eruption and a decision process that fell on a small number of individuals at the responding volcano observatory. Possible ways to address these challenges include (1) supporting community-building activities between eruptions that make connections among scientists within and outside formal observatories, (2) identifying key science questions and pre-planning science activities, which would facilitate more rapid implementation across a broader scientific group, and (3) continued dialog among observatory scientists, emergency responders, and non-observatory scientists about the role of SACs. The SAC model holds promise to become an integral part of future efforts, leading in the short and longer term to more effective hazard response and greater scientific discovery and understanding.

Hawaii↗
USGS2003

Relations between seismicity and deformation during unrest in Long Valley Caldera, California, from 1995 through 1999

Unrest in Long Valley Caldera and the adjacent Sierra Nevada from 1995 through 2000 was dominated by three major episodes: (1) the March-April 1996 earthquake swarm in the east lobe of the south moat; (2) the July 1997-January 1998 caldera-wide unrest; and (3) a sequence of three M>5 earthquakes (9 June 1998, 13 July 1998, and 15 May 1999 UT) located in the Sierra Nevada block immediately south of the caldera. These three unrest episodes each had distinct characteristics with distinct implications for associated hazards. Seismicity developed as earthquake swarms for the 1996 and 1997-98 episodes, both of which were within the caldera. In contrast, the series of three M>5 earthquakes south of the caldera in 1998-99 each developed as a mainshock-aftershock sequence. Marginal deformation within the caldera associated with the 1996 swarm and the 1998-99 M>5 earthquakes is consistent with the cumulative seismic moments for the respective sequences. Deformation associated with the 1997-98 episode, however, was roughly five times larger than can be accounted for by the cumulative seismic moment of the associated earthquake swarm. We conclude that the 1997-98 episode was associated with mass transport (local intrusion of magma or magmatic brine) and that the associated earthquake swarm activity, which had a relatively high b -value of 1.2, was largely driven by the intrusive process. In contrast, the 1996 earthquake swarm and the 1998-99 M>5 mainshock-aftershock sequences, both with 'normal' b -values of ???0.9, represent brittle relaxation to previously accumulated stresses associated with little or no mass transport. These relations emphasize the importance of simultaneous, real-time monitoring of both seismicity and deformation as a basis for judging whether an evolving unrest episode has the potential for culminating in a volcanic eruption. ?? 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗
USGS1999

Degassing and microlite crystallization during pre-climactic events of the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, Philippines

Dacite tephras produced by the 1991 pre-climactic eruptive sequence at Mt. Pinatubo display extreme heterogeneity in vesicularity, ranging in clast density from 700 to 2580 kg m-3. Observations of the 13 surge-producing blasts that preceded the climactic plinian event include radar-defined estimates of column heights and seismically defined eruptive and intra-eruptive durations. A comparison of the characteristics of erupted material, including microlite textures, chemical compositions, and H2O contents, with eruptive parameters suggests that devolatilization-induced crystallization of the magma occurred to a varying extent prior to at least nine of the explosive events. Although volatile loss progressed to the same approximate level in all of the clasts analyzed (weight percent H2O=1.26-1.73), microlite crystallization was extremely variable (0-22%). We infer that syn-eruptive volatile exsolution from magma in the conduit and intra-eruptive separation of the gas phase was facilitated by the development of permeability within magma residing in the conduit. Correlation of maximum microlite crystallinity with repose interval duration (28-262 min) suggests that crystallization occurred primarily intra-eruptively, in response to the reduction in dissolved H2O content that occurred during the preceding event. Detailed textural characterization, including determination of three-dimensional shapes and crystal size distributions (CSD), was conducted on a subset of clasts in order to determine rates of crystal nucleation and growth using repose interval as the time available for crystallization. Shape and size analysis suggests that crystallization proceeded in response to lessening degrees of feldspar supersaturation as repose interval durations increased. We thus propose that during repose intervals, a plug of highly viscous magma formed due to the collapse of vesicular magma that had exsolved volatiles during the previous explosive event. If plug thickness grew proportionally to the square root of time, and if magma pressurization increased during the eruptive sequence, the frequency of eruptive pulses may have been modulated by degassing of magma within the conduit. Dense clasts in surge deposits probably represent plug material entrained by each subsequent explosive event.

Bulletin of Volcanology↗
USGS2025

Mitigation of human cognitive bias in volcanic eruption forecasting

Modern operational eruption forecasting methods rely heavily on human judgment in the face of uncertainty and are thus susceptible to myriad cognitive biases and errors by the scientist-forecasters. Recent developments in the behavioral sciences have elucidated cognitive biases across a wide spectrum of human behaviors and found ways to mitigate them. These insights have led to significant gains in human forecast accuracy across a range of disciplines. However, such gains have yet to widely penetrate volcanic eruption forecasting efforts. In this study, we review recent progress in these fields as relevant to improving current eruption forecasting methods as practiced by volcano observatories worldwide. We group cognitive biases into 1) information and selection biases, 2) group effects and social-emotional biases, and 3) framing and decision biases and highlight the numerous places in which these biases may permeate eruption forecasts. We present a framework for improving group discussion and forecasting processes at volcano observatories, considering recent gains from behavioral sciences along with a mitigation checklist to effectively reduce bias in operational eruption forecasts. Finally, we present an updated forecasting methodology for use in our own group, the US Geological Survey (USGS) Volcano Disaster Assistance Program, based on previous “multiple datasets” methods, that includes clear and deliberate efforts to minimize cognitive biases and thus improve eruption forecasting accuracy.

Journal of Applied Volcanology↗
USGS2025

The crystalline silica respiratory hazard from rhyolitic lava dome eruptions in New Zealand's Taupo Volcanic Zone: A case study from the 1315 CE Kaharoa eruption

The rhyolitic Kaharoa 1315 CE eruption was a complex, long-lived event from Tarawera volcano, New Zealand. Explosive phases were followed by around 5 years of lava dome extrusion and collapse which produced block-and-ash flows (BAF). Lava domes generate crystalline silica in the form of cristobalite, and rhyolitic magmas often contain quartz phenocrysts. Fine-grained ash containing crystalline silica can be formed through dome collapses or explosions, generating a respiratory health hazard for communities affected by ashfall. The aims of this study are to: i) determine whether the Kaharoa eruption dome-forming phase generated substantial quantities of crystalline silica and, therefore, to determine the potential for future dome-forming eruptions of Tarawera to do the same; ii) consider the potential hazard of the crystalline silica by studying the crystal habit and chemistry compared to other lava domes, globally; and iii) assess the particle size and crystalline silica content of the Kaharoa ash, to inform a respiratory hazard assessment. Five co-BAF ash samples and one co-ignimbrite (explosive) ash sample from the Kaharoa pyroclastic deposits were analysed for health-pertinent factors: particle size distribution and crystalline silica content. Eight dome-rock samples were collected from the dome complex and associated BAF deposits and groundmass texture (especially forms of crystalline silica) and quantity of crystalline silica were assessed. Cristobalite was present in the 4 ash samples analysed by X-ray diffraction (XRD; 1.3–3.7 wt%) as was quartz (5.7–12.5 wt%). For the 4 dome samples analysed by XRD, all samples contained quartz (4.1–10.4 wt%) and two contained significant quantities of cristobalite (24.7 and 27.3 wt%). Of the two dome samples with minimal cristobalite (visible as individual vapour-phase crystals by SEM but not quantifiable by XRD), one was from the non-devitrified dome carapace and the other was from the compacted interior but had not undergone devitrification. The two dome samples with substantial cristobalite were from dome interiors and were highly devitrified, with well-developed spherulitic textures. Using energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy, cristobalite in all samples contained minor aluminium, as has been seen for volcanic cristobalite from other lava domes, which may ameliorate its toxicity. By laser diffraction, the quantities of ash in the health pertinent size fractions varied, with a range of 1.3–8.1 vol% for particles of <4 μm diameter and 1.7–15.6 vol% for particles of <10 μm diameter, which is lower than measured in ash from large-scale dome collapse events at other volcanoes. The findings suggest a potential for substantial crystalline silica to be formed in future Kaharoa-style eruptions, but that cristobalite generation is site-specific, depending on location within the dome and whether the dome remains sufficiently hot for spherulite formation and glass devitrification. Respiratory hazard will therefore vary depending on the collapse of (or explosions through) individual lobes – although all lava is expected to contain quartz phenocrysts – as well as the size and energy of those collapses, which will influence particle size and quantity of ash generated and dispersed.

Taupo Volcanic Zone↗
USGS2017

Benchmarking computational fluid dynamics models of lava flow simulation for hazard assessment, forecasting, and risk management

Numerical simulations of lava flow emplacement are valuable for assessing lava flow hazards, forecasting active flows, designing flow mitigation measures, interpreting past eruptions, and understanding the controls on lava flow behavior. Existing lava flow models vary in simplifying assumptions, physics, dimensionality, and the degree to which they have been validated against analytical solutions, experiments, and natural observations. In order to assess existing models and guide the development of new codes, we conduct a benchmarking study of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models for lava flow emplacement, including VolcFlow, OpenFOAM, FLOW-3D, COMSOL, and MOLASSES. We model viscous, cooling, and solidifying flows over horizontal planes, sloping surfaces, and into topographic obstacles. We compare model results to physical observations made during well-controlled analogue and molten basalt experiments, and to analytical theory when available. Overall, the models accurately simulate viscous flow with some variability in flow thickness where flows intersect obstacles. OpenFOAM, COMSOL, and FLOW-3D can each reproduce experimental measurements of cooling viscous flows, and OpenFOAM and FLOW-3D simulations with temperature-dependent rheology match results from molten basalt experiments. We assess the goodness-of-fit of the simulation results and the computational cost. Our results guide the selection of numerical simulation codes for different applications, including inferring emplacement conditions of past lava flows, modeling the temporal evolution of ongoing flows during eruption, and probabilistic assessment of lava flow hazard prior to eruption. Finally, we outline potential experiments and desired key observational data from future flows that would extend existing benchmarking data sets.

Journal of Applied Volcanology↗
USGS2003

Morphology and composition of spinel in Pu'u 'O'o lava (1996-1998), Kilauea volcano, Hawaii

The morphology and composition of spinel in rapidly quenched Pu'u 'O'o vent and lava tube samples are described. These samples contain glass, olivine phenocrysts (3-5 vol.%) and microphenocrysts of spinel (~0.05 vol.%). The spinel surrounded by glass occurs as idiomorphic octahedra 5-50 μm in diameter and as chains of octahedra that are oriented with respect to each other. Spinel enclosed by olivine phenocrysts is sometimes rounded and does not generally form chains. The temperature before quenching was calculated from the MgO content of the glass and ranges from 1150 o C to 1180 o C. The oxygen fugacity before quenching was calculated by two independent methods and the log f O2 ranged from -9.2 to -9.9 (delta QFM=-1). The spinel in the Pu'u'O'o samples has a narrow range in composition with Cr/(Cr+Al)=0.61 to 0.73 and Fe 2+ /(Fe 2+ +Mg) =0.46 to 0.56. The lower the calculated temperature for the samples, the higher the average Fe 2+ /(Fe 2+ +Mg), Fe 3+ and Ti in the spinel. Most zoned spinel crystals decrease in Cr/(Cr+Al) from core to rim and, in the chains, the Cr/(Cr+Al) is greater in the core of larger crystals than in the core of smaller crystals. The occurrence of chains and hopper crystals and the presence of Cr/(Cr+Al) zoning from core to rim of the spinel suggest diffusion-controlled growth of the crystals. Some of the spinel crystals may have grown rapidly under the turbulent conditions of the summit reservoir and in the flowing lava, and the crystals may have remained in suspension for a considerable period. The rapid growth may have caused very local (μm) gradients of Cr in the melt ahead of the spinel crystal faces. The crystals seem to have retained the Cr/(Cr+Al) ratio that developed during the original growth of the crystal, but the Fe 2+ /(Fe 2+ +Mg) ratio may have equilibrated fairly rapidly with the changing melt composition due to olivine crystallization. Six of the samples were collected on the same day at various locations along a 10-km lava tube and the calculated pre-collection temperatures of the samples show a 5 o C drop with distance from the vent. The average Fe2+/(Fe2++Mg) of the spinel in these samples shows a weak positive correlation with decreasing MgO in the glass of these samples. The range in Cr 2 O 3 (0.041-0.045 wt.%) of the glass for these six samples is too small to distinguish a consistent change along the lava tube. The spinel in the Pu'u 'O'o samples shows a zoning trend in a Cr-Al-Fe 3+ diagram almost directly away from the Cr apex. This compares with a zoning trend in rapidly quenched MORB samples away from Cr coupled with decreasing Fe 3+ . The trend away from Cr displayed by spinel in rapidly quenched samples is in marked contrast to the trend of increasing Fe 3+ shown by spinel in slowly cooled lava.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗
USGS2012

Use of ASTER and MODIS thermal infrared data to quantify heat flow and hydrothermal change at Yellowstone National Park

The overarching aim of this study was to use satellite thermal infrared (TIR) remote sensing to monitor geothermal activity within the Yellowstone geothermal area to meet the missions of both the U.S. Geological Survey and the Yellowstone National Park Geology Program. Specific goals were to: 1) address the challenges of monitoring the surface thermal characteristics of the > 10,000 spatially and temporally dynamic thermal features in the Park (including hot springs, pools, geysers, fumaroles, and mud pots) that are spread out over ~ 5000 km 2 , by using satellite TIR remote sensing tools (e.g., ASTER and MODIS), 2) to estimate the radiant geothermal heat flux (GHF) for Yellowstone's thermal areas, and 3) to identify normal, background thermal changes so that significant, abnormal changes can be recognized, should they ever occur (e.g., changes related to tectonic, hydrothermal, impending volcanic processes, or human activities, such as nearby geothermal development). ASTER TIR data (90-m pixels) were used to estimate the radiant GHF from all of Yellowstone's thermal features and update maps of thermal areas. MODIS TIR data (1-km pixels) were used to record background thermal radiance variations from March 2000 through December 2010 and establish thermal change detection limits. A lower limit for the radiant GHF estimated from ASTER TIR temperature data was established at ~ 2.0 GW, which is ~ 30–45% of the heat flux estimated through geochemical thermometry. Also, about 5 km 2 of thermal areas was added to the geodatabase of mapped thermal areas. A decade-long time-series of MODIS TIR radiance data was dominated by seasonal cycles. A background subtraction technique was used in an attempt to isolate variations due to geothermal changes. Several statistically significant perturbations were noted in the time-series from Norris Geyser Basin, however many of these did not correspond to documented thermal disturbances. This study provides concrete examples of the strengths and limitations of current satellite TIR monitoring of geothermal areas, highlighting some specific areas that can be improved. This work provides a framework for future satellite-based thermal monitoring at Yellowstone and other volcanic and geothermal systems.

Idaho, Montana, Oregon, Wyoming↗
USGS2025

Identifying precursors and tracking pulses of magma ascent in multidisciplinary data during the 2018–2023 phreatomagmatic eruption at Semisopochnoi Island, Alaska

The 2018–2023 phreatomagmatic eruptions at Semisopochnoi Island, Alaska produced abundant long-period (LP) seismicity, harmonic and broadband tremor, and explosion signals over several well-monitored periods of eruption and quiescence. The corresponding dataset provides an excellent opportunity to investigate precursory and syn -eruptive geophysical signals of long-lived phreatomagmatic eruptions using multiparameter observations. We generated explosion and LP event catalogs through novel implementations of the REDPy ( Hotovec-Ellis, 2024 ) repeating event detector in mid-2021 following a network upgrade and the onset of a new phase of the eruption. The hundreds of detected explosions show a high degree of infrasound waveform similarity over more than a year, indicating a repeating source mechanism likely associated with explosive magma-water interaction. The seismic LP catalog shows that events began over a month prior to renewed explosive activity at the beginning of August 2021, and that lower frequency index (FI) LPs were generated in the week prior to the onset of explosions. We applied a recently developed machine learning tool (VOISS-Net, Tan et al., 2024 ) to catalog abundant broadband and harmonic seismic tremor recorded before and during the renewed explosive activity, along with LPs and explosions. The tremor catalogs complement the LP and explosion catalogs by filling out the seismic sequence with the dominant signal types. Together, these catalogs reveal a seismic sequence of renewed unrest that started with several weeks of LP events, followed by LPs with lower FI values and harmonic tremor in the days prior to explosive activity, and finally the onset of discrete explosions and broadband eruption tremor. We interpret this sequence as the ascent of a new pulse of magma that first interacted with the hydrothermal/groundwater system to produce LPs, followed by harmonic tremor, and that ultimately drove explosive magma-water interactions and periods of continuous ash emissions. The 2021 seismic sequence, in combination with long-term records of satellite SO 2 emissions, deformation from interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) analysis, ash sample analysis, infrasound, and volcano tectonic seismicity, allows us to interpret the entire 9-year period of unrest and eruption that began with an intrusion and earthquake swarm in 2014.

Alaska↗
USGS2020

Geophysical characterization of the Northwest Geysers geothermal field, California

The Clear Lake Volcanic Field in northern California is the youngest and northern-most part of a long-lived volcanic system that has produced recent (~10 ka) eruptions. Adjacent to the Clear Lake Volcanic Field is the worlds largest energy producing geothermal field, The Geysers. The hottest part of The Geysers geothermal field is in the northwest where temperatures reach ~400 C at 3 km depth. Low permeability, high thermal gradients, and low steam saturation prescribed development of an enhanced geothermal system (EGS) in the Northwest Geysers to increase energy producing capacity. Though the Northwest Geysers is known to be the hottest part of the field, geophysical methods have failed to adequately image any inferred heat source. This project aims to image the heat source of the Northwest Geysers using newly collected gravity and magnetotelluric (MT) measurements. Gravity data were jointly modeled with existing magnetic data along a two-dimensional profile aligned with an existing geologic cross-section. The key feature of the potential field model is a low-density, low-susceptibility body at 5 km depth (bmsl) under the EGS. MT data were modeled in three-dimensions to characterize subsurface resistivity structure, where the upper 3 km of the resistivity model agrees well with existing data. Lithologic and steam saturation are estimated from modeled resistivity values using existing geophysical data. Below 3 km depth (bmsl), the resistivity model images a possible young intrusion under the EGS. A possible zone of partial melt (<5%) below 7 km depth (bmsl) in the northwestern part of the field is also imaged which extends northeast towards the main part of the Clear Lake Volcanic Field.

California↗
USGS2020

Cyclic shear zone cataclasis and sintering during lava dome extrusion: Insights from Chaos Crags, Lassen Volcanic Center (USA)

The ascent and extrusion of crystal-rich magma is commonly facilitated by deformation partitioned within annular, conduit-parallel shear zones. The physical properties and textures of the shear zone materials, where exposed at surface, provide a record of ascent and eruption dynamics. We describe the shear zone developed in Dome C, part of Chaos Crags in the Lassen Volcanic Center (California, USA). The extruded shear zone comprises volcanic fault gouge and variably densified cataclasites. The competent cataclasites evidence deep-seated gouge production followed by gouge densification within the conduit on the timescale of lava dome ascent. Textural, geochemical and mineralogical data identify solid-state sintering as the densification mechanism. At the temperatures and pressures in the volcanic conduit, solid-state sintering causes rapid porosity and permeability loss within the gouge and concomitant material strengthening. Longer dwell times (i.e., slower ascent) allow for more sintering, producing stronger, denser and less permeable cataclasites. At Chaos Crags, we use the extent of sintering, quantified by residual porosity, to recover minimum in-conduit dwell times necessary to produce the observed cataclasites. Our analysis of the Dome C cataclasites suggests a maximum linear ascent rate of 10 m/day and a minimum ascent time of 100 days. We evaluate the consequences of shear zone lithification by solid-state sintering for the eruption of other crystal-rich, glass-poor magmas. Chaos Crags cataclasites preserve evidence of multiple cycles of fracturing, cataclasis and (re-)sintering suggesting a mechanism for transitions between effusive and explosive phases of dome-building eruptions.

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