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From subsidies to stressors: Shifting ecological baselines alter biological responses to nutrients in highly modified agricultural streams

Subsidy–stress gradients offer a useful framework for understanding ecological responses to perturbation and may help inform ecological metrics in highly modified systems. Historic, region-wide shifts from bottomland hardwood forest to row crop agriculture can cause positively skewed impact gradients in alluvial plain ecoregions, resulting in tolerant organisms that typically exhibit a subsidy response (increased abundance in response to environmental stressors) shifting to a stress response (declining abundance at higher concentrations). As a result, observed biological tolerance in modified ecosystems may differ from less modified regions, creating significant challenges for detecting biological responses to restoration efforts. Using the agriculturally dominated Mississippi Alluvial Plain (MAP) ecoregion in Mississippi, USA, as a case study, we tested the hypothesis that macroinvertebrate taxa that typically display a subsidy response to nutrient enrichment in less modified ecoregions (i.e., nutrient-tolerance) shift to a stress response to increasing nutrients in highly modified watersheds with elevated baseline nutrient conditions (i.e., nutrient intolerance). The abundance and diversity of MAP-specific intolerant taxa identified with threshold indicator taxa analysis were either unresponsive or exhibited a subsidy response to increasing nutrients in less modified ecoregions in Mississippi with less land alteration and lower nutrient concentrations, but declined at higher concentrations, providing evidence for a stress response to elevated nutrients in the MAP. Additionally, MAP-specific tolerant and intolerant taxa richness responded to increased nutrients predictably and consistently across space and time within the MAP. However, in MAP streams, elevated specific conductance was predicted to dampen the response of tolerant and intolerant taxa richness to increasing nutrient concentrations, highlighting the importance of considering multistressor interactions when interpreting biological data. Lastly, we demonstrate the efficacy of this approach with sediment bacterial communities characterized with amplicon sequencing, which lack sufficient life history characteristics necessary for the development of multimetric indices. Both macroinvertebrate and bacterial communities responded similarly to increasing nutrient concentrations, suggesting DNA-based approaches may provide an efficient biological assessment tool for monitoring water quality improvements in highly modified watersheds.

Mississippi

Potential hazards of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in Great Lakes tributaries using water column and porewater passive samplers and sediment wquilibrium partitioning

The potential for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH)-related effects in benthic organisms is commonly estimated from organic carbon-normalized sediment concentrations based on equilibrium partitioning (EqP). Although this approach is useful for screening purposes, it may overestimate PAH bioavailability by orders of magnitude in some sediments, leading to inflated exposure estimates and potentially unnecessary remediation costs. Recently, passive samplers have been shown to provide an accurate assessment of the freely dissolved concentrations of PAHs, and thus their bioavailability and possible biological effects, in sediment porewater and overlying surface water. We used polyethylene passive sampling devices (PEDs) to measure freely dissolved porewater and water column PAH concentrations at 55 Great Lakes (USA/Canada) tributary locations. The potential for PAH-related biological effects using PED concentrations were estimated with multiple approaches by applying EqP, water quality guidelines, and pathway-based biological activity based on in vitro bioassay results from ToxCast. Results based on the PED-based exposure estimates were compared with EqP-derived exposure estimates for concurrently collected sediment samples. The results indicate a potential overestimation of bioavailable PAH concentrations by up to 960-fold using the EqP-based method compared with measurements using PEDs. Even so, PED-based exposure estimates indicate a high potential for PAH-related biological effects at 14 locations. Our findings provide an updated, weight-of-evidence–based site prioritization to help guide possible future monitoring and mitigation efforts.

Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, New York,

Survey of beaver-related restoration practices in rangeland streams of the western USA

Poor condition of many streams and concerns about future droughts in the arid and semi-arid western USA have motivated novel restoration strategies aimed at accelerating recovery and increasing water resources. Translocation of beavers into formerly occupied habitats, restoration activities encouraging beaver recolonization, and instream structures mimicking the effects of beaver dams are restoration alternatives that have recently gained popularity because of their potential socioeconomic and ecological benefits. However, beaver dams and dam-like structures also harbor a history of social conflict. Hence, we identified a need to assess the use of beaver-related restoration projects in western rangelands to increase awareness and accountability, and identify gaps in scientific knowledge. We inventoried 97 projects implemented by 32 organizations, most in the last 10 years. We found that beaver-related stream restoration projects undertaken mostly involved the relocation of nuisance beavers. The most common goal was to store water, either with beaver dams or artificial structures. Beavers were often moved without regard to genetics, disease, or potential conflicts with nearby landowners. Few projects included post-implementation monitoring or planned for longer term issues, such as what happens when beavers abandon a site or when beaver dams or structures breach. Human dimensions were rarely considered and water rights and other issues were mostly unresolved or addressed through ad-hoc agreements. We conclude that the practice and implementation of beaver-related restoration has outpaced research on its efficacy and best practices. Further scientific research is necessary, especially research that informs the establishment of clear guidelines for best practices.

Environmental Management

Reassessing particulate organic carbon dynamics in the highly disturbed San Francisco Bay Estuary

Environmental research has been shifting toward a new normal in which a primary focus is to capture change that may be accelerating. In this study, we collected particulate samples in the northern San Francisco Bay Estuary (SFBE) in the fall of 2011 through the spring of 2012 in order to assess vascular plant contributions across both time and space and to compare our findings with a similar set of samples from 1990 to 1992. Across the ∼20-year span, we detected (1) decreasing C:N a ratios (averages ± SD of 12.5 ± 2.5 vs. 8.8 ± 1.4, significant t -test with p < 0.0001); (2) distinct shifts in chlorophyll vs. salinity, with higher chlorophyll concentrations shifting toward freshwater; and (3) greater relative proportions of vascular plant carbon that also appears less degraded (as indicated by lignin measurements) shifting from freshwater toward higher salinities. Lignin compositional data (syringyl:vanillyl and cinnamyl:vanillyl) suggest that increased lignin content in the more saline samples could be derived from wetland materials, while a two-endmember mixing model indicates that a significant portion of the particulate organic carbon (POC) in the western sites (50–60% as an upper bound, 13–15% as a lower bound) could be wetland-derived. This has potential implications for the lower food web, given recent work that demonstrates selective feeding by copepods on wetland detrital material in the northern SFBE. The latter has ramifications for proposed wetland restoration within the SFBE and Sacramento River/San Joaquin River Delta system, namely, that restored wetlands could confer important benefits toward the food web. Equally important is to prioritize continued monitoring of particulate organic matter cycling in the SFBE system to make sure that changing conditions are accounted for in any management decision.

California

Using environmental DNA to assess the response of steelhead/Rainbow Trout and Coastrange Sculpin populations to postfire debris flows in coastal streams of Big Sur, California

Objective Debris flows are among the most extreme disturbances to streams and are predicted to become more frequent under climate change. We assessed the response of steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss (anadromous Rainbow Trout)/Rainbow Trout (hereafter, collectively referred to as O. mykiss ) and Coastrange Sculpin Cottus aleuticus populations to major postfire debris flows in two small coastal basins of California using noninvasive environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling. Methods We analyzed water samples from disturbed reaches for eDNA in the first two summers after debris flows. In Big Creek, all Coastrange Sculpin habitat was disturbed by debris flows, but a major tributary occupied by O. mykiss was not affected. In Mill Creek, all available habitat for both species was disturbed. We also sampled two unburned basins as undisturbed reference streams. Result In Big Creek, O. mykiss eDNA was detected in all water samples during both years, and concentrations in some samples approached the lowest concentrations in the reference streams. Coastrange Sculpin eDNA was detected only in a single water sample in the first year and was not detected in the second year. In Mill Creek, neither species was detected in the first year, but during the second year, O. mykiss eDNA was detected at very low concentrations in 40% of samples and Coastrange Sculpin eDNA was detected in a single sample. Conclusion Our results indicate that O. mykiss and Coastrange Sculpins either survived in or quickly reoccupied the disturbed reaches from within the basins. However, the detection rates for cases in which all habitat for a species in a basin was affected by debris flows indicate that abundances were very low, suggesting that persistence may be uncertain unless there is successful reproduction or immigration. Finally, eDNA appears to be effective for monitoring sensitive fish populations after a major disturbance; however, detection rates in individual samples may be low and require appropriate sampling designs to achieve the desired detection probability.

California

Water quality in alluvial aquifers of the southern Rocky Mountains Physiographic Province, upper Colorado River basin, Colorado, 1997

Water-quality samples were collected in the summer of 1997 from 45 sites (43 wells and 2 springs) in selected alluvial aquifers throughout the Southern Rocky Mountains physiographic province of the Upper Colorado River Basin study unit as part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment Program. The objective of this study was to assess the water-quality conditions in selected alluvial aquifers in the Southern Rocky Mountains physiographic province. Alluvial aquifers are productive aquifers in the Southern Rocky Mountains physiographic province and provide for easily developed wells. Water-quality samples were collected from areas where ground water is used predominantly for domestic or public water supply. Twenty-three of the 45 sites sampled were located in or near mining districts. No statistical differences were observed between the mining sites and sites not associated with mining activities for the majority of the constituents analyzed. Water samples were analyzed for major ions, nutrients, dissolved organic carbon, trace elements, radon-222, pesticides, volatile organic compounds, bacteria, and methylene blue active substances. In addition, field parameters consisting of water temperature, specific conductance, dissolved oxygen, pH, turbidity, and alkalinity were measured at all sites. Specific conductance for the ground-water sites ranged from 57 to 6,650 microsiemens per centimeter and had higher concentrations measured in areas such as the northwestern part of the study unit. Dissolved oxygen ranged from 0.1 to 6.0 mg/L (milligrams per liter) and had a median concentration of 2.9 mg/L. The pH field values ranged from 6.1 to 8.1; about 4 percent of the sites (2 of 45) had pH values outside the range of 6.5 to 8.5 and so did not meet the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency secondary maximum contaminant level standard for drinking water. About 5 percent (2 of 43) of the samples exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recommended turbidity value of 5 nephelometric turbidity units; one of these samples was from a monitoring well. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency secondary maximum contaminant levels for dissolved solids, sulfate, iron, and manganese were exceeded at some of the sites. Higher dissolved-solids concentrations were detected where sedimentary rocks are exposed, such as in the northwestern part of the Southern Rocky Mountains physiographic province. The dominant water compositions for the sites sampled are calcium, magnesium, and bicarbonate. However, sites in areas where sedimentary rocks are exposed and sites located in or near mining areas show more sulfate-dominated waters. Nutrient concentrations were less than the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency drinking-water standards. Only one site had a nitrate concentration greater than 3.0 mg/L, a level indicating possible influence from human activities. No significant differences among land-use/land-cover classifications (forest, rangeland, and urban) for drinking-water wells (42 sites) were identified for dissolved-solids, sulfate, nitrate, iron or manganese concentrations. Radon concentrations were higher in parts of the study unit where Precambrian rocks are exposed. All radon concentrations in ground water exceeded the previous U.S. Environmental Protection Agency proposed maximum contaminant level for drinking water, which has been withdrawn pending further review. Pesticide detections were at concentrations below the reporting limits and were too few to allow for comparison of the data. Eight volatile organic compounds were detected at six sites; all concentrations complied with U.S. Environmental Protection Agency drinking-water standards. Total coliform bacteria were detected at six sites, but no Escherichia coli ( E. coli ) was detected. Methylene blue active substances were detected at three sites at concentrations just above the reporting limit. Overall, the water quality in the Southern Rocky Mountains physiographic province is suitable for most uses, but natural and human factors affect the water quality.

Colorado

Contributions of Arctic PRISM to monitoring western hemispheric shorebirds

Long-term monitoring of populations is of paramount importance to understanding responses oforganisms to global environmental change and to evaluating whether conservation practices are yielding intended results through time (Wiens 2009). The population status of many shorebird species, the focus of this volume, remain poorly known. Long-distance migrant shorebirds have proven particularly difficult to monitor, in part because of their highly migratory nature and ranges that extend into highly inaccessible regions. As migrant shorebirds travel the length of the hemisphere, they congregate and disperse in ways that vary among species, locations, and years, presenting serious challenges to designing and implementing monitoring programs. Rigorous field and quantitative methods that estimate population size and monitor trends are vitally needed to direct and evaluate effective conservation measures. Many management efforts depend on unbiased population size estimates; for example, the shorebird conservation plans for both Canada and the United States seek to restore populations to levels calculated for the 1970s based on the best information available from existing surveys. Further, federal wildlife agencies within the United States and Canada have mandates to understand the state of their nations' resources under various conventions for the protection of migratory birds. Accurate estimates of population size are vital statistics for a variety of conservation activities, such as prioritizing species for conservation action and setting management targets. Areas of essential habitat, such as those designated under the Western Hemisphere Shorebird Reserve Network, the Important Bird Areas program of BirdLife International and the National Audubon Society, or Canada's National Wildlife Areas program, are all evaluated on the basis ofproportions of species' populations which they contain. The size, and trends in size, ofa species' population are considered key information for assessing its vulnerability and subsequent listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act and the Canadian Species at Risk Act. To meet the need for information on population size and trends, shorebird biologists from Canada and the United States proposed a shared blueprint for shorebird monitoring across the Western Hemisphere in the late 1990s; this effort was undertaken in concert with the development of the Canadian and U.S. Shorebird Conservation Plans (Donaldson et al. 2000, Brown et aL 2001). Soon thereafter, partners in the monitoring effort adopted the name "Program for Regional and International Shorebird Monitoring" (PRISM). Among the primary objectives of PRISM were to estimate the population sizes and trends of breeding North American shorebirds and describe their distributions (Bart et al. 2002). PRISM members evaluated ongoing and potential monitoring approaches to address 74 taxa (including subspecies) and proposed a combination of arctic andboreal breeding surveys, temperate breeding and non-breeding surveys, and neotropical surveys.

Book chapter

Probability of detecting perchlorate under natural conditions in deep groundwater in California and the Southwestern United States

We use data from 1626 groundwater samples collected in California, primarily from public drinking water supply wells, to investigate the distribution of perchlorate in deep groundwater under natural conditions. The wells were sampled for the California Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment Priority Basin Project. We develop a logistic regression model for predicting probabilities of detecting perchlorate at concentrations greater than multiple threshold concentrations as a function of climate (represented by an aridity index) and potential anthropogenic contributions of perchlorate (quantified as an anthropogenic score, AS). AS is a composite categorical variable including terms for nitrate, pesticides, and volatile organic compounds. Incorporating water-quality parameters in AS permits identification of perturbation of natural occurrence patterns by flushing of natural perchlorate salts from unsaturated zones by irrigation recharge as well as addition of perchlorate from industrial and agricultural sources. The data and model results indicate low concentrations (0.1-0.5 &mu;g/L) of perchlorate occur under natural conditions in groundwater across a wide range of climates, beyond the arid to semiarid climates in which they mostly have been previously reported. The probability of detecting perchlorate at concentrations greater than 0.1 &mu;g/L under natural conditions ranges from 50-70% in semiarid to arid regions of California and the Southwestern United States to 5-15% in the wettest regions sampled (the Northern California coast). The probability of concentrations above 1 &mu;g/L under natural conditions is low (generally <3%).

California

U.S. Geological Survey external quality-assurance project report to the National Atmospheric Deposition Program / National Trends Network and Mercury Deposition Network, 2007-08

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) used six distinct programs to provide external quality-assurance monitoring for the National Atmospheric Deposition Program / National Trends Network (NTN) and Mercury Deposition Network (MDN) during 2007-08. The field-audit program assessed the effects of onsite exposure, sample handling, and shipping on the chemistry of NTN samples, and a system-blank program assessed the same effects for MDN. Two interlaboratory-comparison programs assessed the bias and variability of the chemical analysis data from the Central Analytical Laboratory (CAL), Mercury (Hg) Analytical Laboratory (HAL), and 12 other participating laboratories. A blind-audit program was also implemented for the MDN to evaluate analytical bias in HAL total Hg concentration data. A co-located-sampler program was used to identify and quantify potential shifts in NADP data resulting from replacement of original network instrumentation with new electronic recording rain gages (E-gages) and prototype precipitation collectors. The results indicate that NADP data continue to be of sufficient quality for the analysis of spatial distributions and time trends of chemical constituents in wet deposition across the U.S. NADP data-quality objectives continued to be achieved during 2007-08. Results also indicate that retrofit of the NADP networks with the new E-gages is not likely to create step-function type shifts in NADP precipitation-depth records, except for sites where annual precipitation depth is dominated by snow because the E-gages tend to catch more snow than the original NADP rain gages. Evaluation of prototype precipitation collectors revealed no difference in sample volumes and analyte concentrations between the original NADP collectors and modified, deep-bucket collectors, but the Yankee Environmental Systems, Inc. (YES) collector obtained samples of significantly higher volumes and analyte concentrations than the standard NADP collector.

Report

Fluvial transport and surface enrichment of arsenic in semi-arid mining regions: examples from the Mojave Desert, California

As a result of extensive gold and silver mining in the Mojave Desert, southern California, mine wastes and tailings containing highly elevated arsenic (As) concentrations remain exposed at a number of former mining sites. Decades of weathering and erosion have contributed to the mobilization of As-enriched tailings, which now contaminate surrounding communities. Fluvial transport plays an intermittent yet important and relatively undocumented role in the migration and dispersal of As-contaminated mine wastes in semi-arid climates. Assessing the contribution of fluvial systems to tailings mobilization is critical in order to assess the distribution and long-term exposure potential of tailings in a mining-impacted environment. Extensive sampling, chemical analysis, and geospatial mapping of dry streambed (wash) sediments, tailings piles, alluvial fans, and rainwater runoff at multiple mine sites have aided the development of a conceptual model to explain the fluvial migration of mine wastes in semi-arid climates. Intense and episodic precipitation events mobilize mine wastes downstream and downslope as a series of discrete pulses, causing dispersion both down and lateral to washes with exponential decay behavior as distance from the source increases. Accordingly a quantitative model of arsenic concentrations in wash sediments, represented as a series of overlapping exponential power-law decay curves, results in the acceptable reproducibility of observed arsenic concentration patterns. Such a model can be transferable to other abandoned mine lands as a predictive tool for monitoring the fate and transport of arsenic and related contaminants in similar settings. Effective remediation of contaminated mine wastes in a semi-arid environment requires addressing concurrent changes in the amounts of potential tailings released through fluvial processes and the transport capacity of a wash.

California

Chemical transport from paired agricultural and restored prairie watersheds

A five-year record of streamflow and chemical sampling data was evaluated to assess the effects of large-scale prairie restoration on transport of NO 3 –N, Cl, and SO 4 loads from paired 5000-ha watersheds located in Jasper County, Iowa. Water quality conditions monitored during land use conversion from row crop agriculture to native prairie in the Walnut Creek watershed were compared with a highly agricultural control watershed (Squaw Creek). Combining hydrograph separation with a load estimation program, baseflow and stormflow loads of NO 3 –N, Cl, and SO 4 were estimated at upstream and downstream sites on Walnut Creek and a downstream site on Squaw Creek. Chemical export in both watersheds was found to occur primarily with baseflow, with baseflow transport greatest during the late summer and fall. Lower Walnut Creek watershed, which contained the restored prairie areas, exported less NO 3 –N and Cl compared with upper Walnut Creek and Squaw Creek watersheds. Average flow-weighted concentrations of NO 3 –N exceeded 10 mg/L in upper Walnut Creek and Squaw Creek, but were estimated to be 6.6 mg/L in lower Walnut Creek. Study results demonstrate the utility of partitioning loads into baseflow and stormflow components to identify sources of pollutant loading to streams.

Iowa

Sequence stratigraphic framework of upper pliocene to holocene sediments of the Los Angeles Basin, California: Implications for aquifer architecture

Executive Summary Groundwater provides more than one-third of the municipal water supply for the coastal Los Angeles Basin and defining the aquifer architecture is a high priority for ground-water managers. Sequence stratigraphy, the state-of-the-art method for delineating reservoir geometry and continuity in the petroleum industry, is now being incorporated into ground water resource assessments and environmental investigations. By evaluating subsurface data using sequence stratigraphy, the geometry and distribution of aquifer and aquitard sediments are linked to the original depositional processes that formed the sediments. Skyline Ridge, Inc., the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with Los Angeles County Department of Public Works (LACDPW) and the Water Replenishment District of Southern California (WRDSC) completed an investigation of the Wilmington – Long Beach area by integrating data from new exploratory research boreholes, marine reflection seismic, vintage land reflection seismic, and high-resolution gravity measurements. Sequence stratigraphy is shown to define pathways for saltwater intrusion into freshwater coastal aquifers by integrating preexisting data with (1) the new borehole observations and (2) structural and physical properties data derived from the geophysical measurements. By constructing a series of seismic reflection and well log cross sections (presented as sheets), this investigation further defines and delineates ten sequences of Late Pliocene to Holocene age in the Wilmington – Long Beach area of the Los Angeles Basin. These sequences were first described by Ponti and others (2007), and the implications for sea water intrusion was discussed by Edwards and others (2009a). In addition, this investigation presents regional seismic facies – environment of deposition maps for the five youngest sequences: 1) the Dominquez Sequence; 2) the Mesa Sequence; 3) the Pacific Sequence; the Harbor Sequence; and 4) the Bent Spring Sequence. The stratigraphic framework established in the Wilmington – Long Beach area is extended into the Central Basin of the greater Los Angeles area by utilizing 1980s and older vintage petroleum exploration land seismic reflection data. Tying this data to the available groundwater monitoring well network in the Central and West Coast Basins demonstrate aquifer correlation problems, and may provide insights into establishing a more robust groundwater model for the greater Los Angeles Basin area.

Book

Assessment of shallow ground-water quality in recently urbanized areas of Sacramento, California, 1998

Evidence for anthropogenic impact on shallow ground-water quality beneath recently developed urban areas of Sacramento, California, has been observed in the sampling results from 19 monitoring wells in 1998. Eight volatile organic compounds (VOCs), four pesticides, and one pesticide transformation product were detected in low concentrations, and nitrate, as nitrogen, was detected in elevated concentrations; all of these concentrations were below National and State primary and secondary maximum contaminant levels. VOC results from this study are more consistent with the results from urban areas nationwide than from agricultural areas in the Central Valley, indicating that shallow ground-water quality has been impacted by urbanization. VOCs detected may be attributed to either the chlorination of drinking water, such as trichloromethane (chloroform) detected in 16 samples, or to the use of gasoline additives, such as methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE), detected in 2 samples. Pesticides detected may be attributed to use on household lawns and gardens and rights-of-way, such as atrazine detected in three samples, or to past agricultural practices, and potentially to ground-water/surface-water interactions, such as bentazon detected in one sample from a well adjacent to the Sacramento River and downstream from where bentazon historically was used on rice. Concentrations of nitrate may be attributed to natural sources, animal waste, old septic tanks, and fertilizers used on lawns and gardens or previously used on agricultural crops. Seven sample concentrations of nitrate, as nitrogen, exceeded 3.0 milligrams per liter, a level that may indicate impact from human activities. Ground-water recharge from rainfall or surface-water runoff also may contribute to the concentrations of VOCs and pesticides observed in ground water. Most VOCs and pesticides detected in ground-water samples also were detected in air and surface-water samples collected at sites within or adjacent to the recently developed urban areas. Five arsenic sample concentrations exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) primary maximum contaminant level (MCL) of 10 milligrams per liter adopted in 2001. Measurements that exceeded USEPA or California Department of Health Services recommended secondary maximum contaminant levels include manganese, iron, chloride, total dissolved solids, and specific conductance. These exceedances are probably a result of natural processes. Variations in stable isotope ratios of hydrogen (2H/1H) and oxygen (18O/16O) may indicate different sources or a mixing of recharge waters to the urban ground water. These variations also may indicate recharge directly from surface water in one well adjacent to the Sacramento River. Tritium concentrations indicate that most shallow ground water has been recharged since the mid-1950s, and tritium/helium-3 age dates suggest that recharge has occurred in the last 2 to 30 years in some areas. In areas where water table depths exceed 20 meters and wells are deeper, ground-water recharge may have occurred prior to 1950, but low concentrations of pesticides and VOCs detected in these deeper wells indicate a mixing of younger and older waters. Overall, the recently urbanized areas can be divided into two groups. One group contains wells where few VOCs and pesticides were detected, nitrate mostly was not detected, and National and State maximum contaminant levels, including the USEPA MCL for arsenic, were exceeded; these wells are adjacent to rivers and generally are characterized by younger water, shallow (1 to 4 meters) water table, chemically reducing conditions, finer grained sediments, and higher organics in the soils. In contrast, the other group contains wells where more VOCs, pesticides, and elevated nitrate concentrations were detected; these wells are farther from rivers and are generally characterized by a mixture of young and old waters, intermediate to deep (7 to 35 meters) wate

Scientific Investigations Report

Observing systems, modeling, and forecasting

Predicting harmful algal blooms (HABs) requires integrating physical, chemical, and biological data collected from observing networks and then assimilating these data into models, which are used to generate forecasts. In 2005, the Harmful Algal Research and Response: A National Environmental Science Strategy 2005-2015 (HARRNESS, 2005) made recommendations on how to improve HAB modeling and forecasting over the next decade. Key HARRNESS recommendations related to sensing, networking, and modeling HABs included: ● Support the development and validation of new and improved technologies for remote cell and toxin detection, and for modeling and forecasting, ● Improve coordination of monitoring/ and modeling efforts, both at national and regional levels, ● Improve the use of networking technologies for monitoring and modeling efforts, ● Conduct sustained time series measurements of the biotic, chemical, and physical environments impacted by HABs, ● Develop food web models on the ecosystem fate and effects of toxins, ● Develop and improve species-specific models that link to physical-biological models. Here we review HAB observing, modeling, and forecasting advances and technologies and recommend research and management priorities for the next decade and beyond. Our report encompasses sensing technologies, sensor networking and data management, models and forecasts, and the paths to operationalize forecasts. Continued improvements of deployable sensors are foundational to improving early warning indicators, models, and forecasts, which are only as good as the underlying data. Sensing technology has advanced considerably in the last decade; for example, more capable fluorometric pigment sensors can track changes in bloom biomass in real-time. Additionally, automated imaging/classifying systems to identify and quantify key harmful algal (HA) taxa are being routinely deployed. However, deployable toxin sensors are available for only some HAB toxins and continue to be identified as a critical need by researchers and managers. As more and improved sensors and technologies become available, the data quality associated with each sensor needs to be assessed. Data quality encompasses the reliability, accuracy, and uncertainty associated with sensor-generated data. These data need to be of known quality so that researchers, managers, and end-users can reliably determine if the information is appropriate for their intended applications. Many of the data quality recommendations from HARRNESS (2005) are still relevant and have been reiterated within the management community. Understanding and documenting data quality, and when applicable, standardizing best practices for sensor use, continue to be recommended.

Report

Update to a management-focused population viability analysis for North Atlantic right whales

We provide an update to the recently published population viability analysis for North Atlantic right whales ( Eubalaena glacialis ). The update includes improvements to the reproduction modeling and also shares additional context given evidence of reduced mortality indicated by recent population monitoring. Projections from the analysis are used to quantify simulated population sizes across 100 years and resulting quasi-extinction probabilities (falling below 50 mature females that have proven ability to reproduce) to compare hypothetical scenarios related to management of threats and changing environmental conditions. Under a status quo scenario reflecting conditions of 2019, prior to the enactment of new regulations by the U.S. and Canada, the North Atlantic right whale population would be expected to continue to fall, with a median decline of 88 percent (95% projection interval, –98 percent to –45 percent change) and a probability of falling below 50 proven females (i.e., quasi-extinction) of 0.988 at 100 years. In hypothetical scenarios that fully remove each of the three primary threats to right whales one at a time, removal of the entanglement threat alone reduces the probability of falling below 50 proven females in 100 years to 0.070; removal of the vessel strike threat alone reduces it to 0.522; and a return to historical prey abundance patterns (pre-2010), but with both human-related threats still in place, reduces it to 0.524. Although additional baseline scenarios were explored to examine the potential effects of recent regulations, we found that the most up-to-date mortality rates (2020–2022) are similar to those simulated under a 70% reduction in severe entanglement injury compared to rates estimated during 2013–2019. If management measures implemented in the U.S. and Canada continue to reduce mortality, the estimated probability of falling below 50 proven females in 100 years is 0.234. Our model continues to provide a tool for assessing North Atlantic right whale recovery.

NOAA Technical Memorandum

Surface-water quality at fixed sites in the Western Lake Michigan Drainages, Wisconsin and Michigan, and the effects of natural and human factors, 1993-95

Streamwater samples were collected from April 1993 through July 1995 at 11 fixed sites in the Western Lake Michigan Drainages Study Unit of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment Program. Water samples were collected monthly at all Fixed Sites, and an additional two to four samples were collected each year during periods of high flow. Streamflow was monitored continuously at the Fixed Sites for the duration of the study period. This report describes field techniques used to collect the water samples, and the analytical methods used for laboratory analyses, statistical analyses of the data, and an attempt to determine the effect of natural and anthropogenic factors on concentrations of nutrients and selected major ions and suspended solids. Locations of eight of the Fixed Sites were selected to represent areas with unique combinations of land use/land cover, surficial deposits, and bedrock geology and are referred to as 'indicator sites.' The remaining three sites were located near the mouths of major rivers and are referred to as 'integrator sites.' The integrator sites represent a large part of the total flow from the Study Unit to Green Bay and western Lake Michigan, and drain various combinations of land use, bedrock, and surficial deposits. These data indicate that land use and surficial deposits may be the primary factors affecting nitrate and total phosphorus concentrations in this Study Unit. Median concentrations of nitrate at the forested sites were less than the National Median Concentration (NMC), and those at urban fixed sites were similar to the NMC. Median nitrate concentrations at the Tomorrow River, North Branch Milwaukee River, and Duck Creek agricultural indicator sites were twice the NMC, but median concentrations at the remaining agricultural indicator sites were similar to the NMC. Nitrate concentrations at one agricultural indicator site exceeded the U. S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) maximum contaminant level in three run-off samples in the growing seasons of 1994 and 1995. Median concentrations of total phosphorus at the forested indicator sites were below the NMC. Tomorrow River was the only agricultural indicator site where the median total-phosphorus concentration was less than the NMC; median concentrations at the remaining agricultural Fixed Sites were similar to the NMC and exceeded 0.1 mg/L, the USEPA suggested total-phosphorus concentration in flowing water. The USEPA recommends that total-phosphorus concentration not exceed this limit to discourage excessive aquatic plant growth in flowing waters. Median total-phosphorus concentration at the urban indicator site was less than the urban NMC. Median concentrations for both nitrate and total phosphorus at the mouth of the Fox River and the Milwaukee River integrator sites were similar to the NMC for the dominant land use, agriculture, within their basins, and were lower than that at the Menominee River integrator site with a dominant forest land use. During this study, potassium concentrations were generally highest in areas of clay-dominated surficial deposits, silica was generally highest in areas of sandy surficial deposits, iron generally highest in areas of igneous/metamorphic bedrock, and calcium generally highest in areas of carbonate bedrock. The highest median fluoride concentration occurred at an urban site that receives treated water.

Michigan, Wisconsin

Ground-water quality data in the Southern Sacramento Valley, California, 2005 — Results from the California GAMA Program

Ground-water quality in the approximately 2,100 square-mile Southern Sacramento Valley study unit (SSACV) was investigated from March to June 2005 as part of the Statewide Basin Assessment Project of Ground-Water Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Program. This study was designed to provide a spatially unbiased assessment of raw ground-water quality within SSACV, as well as a statistically consistent basis for comparing water quality throughout California. Samples were collected from 83 wells in Placer, Sacramento, Solano, Sutter, and Yolo Counties. Sixty-seven of the wells were selected using a randomized grid-based method to provide statistical representation of the study area. Sixteen of the wells were sampled to evaluate changes in water chemistry along ground-water flow paths. Four additional samples were collected at one of the wells to evaluate water-quality changes with depth. The GAMA Statewide Basin Assessment project was developed in response to the Ground-Water Quality Monitoring Act of 2001 and is being conducted by the California State Water Resources Control Board (SWRCB) in collaboration with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). The ground-water samples were analyzed for a large number of man-made organic constituents (volatile organic compounds [VOCs], pesticides and pesticide degradates, pharmaceutical compounds, and wastewater-indicator constituents), constituents of special interest (perchlorate, N -nitrosodimethylamine [NDMA], and 1,2,3-trichloropropane [1,2,3-TCP]), naturally occurring inorganic constituents (nutrients, major and minor ions, and trace elements), radioactive constituents, and microbial indicators. Naturally occurring isotopes (tritium, and carbon-14, and stable isotopes of hydrogen, oxygen, and carbon), and dissolved noble gases also were measured to help identify the source and age of the sampled ground water. Quality-control samples (blanks, replicates, matrix spikes) were collected at ten percent of the wells, and the results for these samples were used to evaluate the quality of the data for the ground-water samples. Assessment of the quality-control data resulted in censoring of less than 0.03 percent of the analyses of ground-water samples. This study did not evaluate the quality of water delivered to consumers; after withdrawal from the ground, water typically is treated, disinfected, and (or) blended with other waters to maintain acceptable water quality. Regulatory thresholds apply to treated water that is served to the consumer, not to raw ground water. However, to provide some context for the results, concentrations of constituents measured in the raw ground water were compared with health-based thresholds established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) and California Department of Health Services (CADHS) (Maximum Contaminant Levels [MCLs], notification levels [NLs], or lifetime health advisories [HA-Ls]) and thresholds established for aesthetic concerns (Secondary Maximum Contaminant Levels [SMCLs]). All wells were sampled for organic constituents and selected general water quality parameters; subsets of wells were sampled for inorganic constituents, nutrients, and radioactive constituents. Volatile organic compounds were detected in 49 out of 83 wells sampled and pesticides were detected in 34 out of 82 wells; all detections were below health-based thresholds, with the exception of 1 detection of 1,2,3-trichloropropane above a NL. Of the 43 wells sampled for trace elements, 27 had no detections of a trace element above a health-based threshold and 16 had at least one detection above. Of the 18 trace elements with health-based thresholds, 3 (arsenic, barium, and boron) were detected at concentrations higher an MCL. Of the 43 wells sampled for nitrate, only 1 well had a detection above the MCL. Twenty wells were sampled for radioactive constituents; only 1 (radon-222) was measured at activities higher than the proposed MCL. Radon-222 was detected below the threshold in 7 wells and above the threshold in 13 wells. SMCLs have been established for nine constituents or parameters analyzed in SSACV. Six were measured at levels higher than an SMCL: chloride, iron, manganese, pH, specific conductance, and total dissolved solids. Chloride, iron, manganese, pH, and total dissolved solids were measured in 43 wells: 27 wells had no measurements above a threshold and 16 wells had a measurement above a threshold. Specific conductance was measured in 83 wells. In 68 wells, specific conductance was measured lower than the threshold and in 15 wells it was measured above the threshold.

California

Rehabilitation of a lignite mine-disturbed area in the Indian Desert

Extensive lignite mining in the Indian (Thar) Desert commenced within the past decade. Accompanying extraction of this valuable resource there have been visible, important environmental impacts. The resultant land degradation has prompted concern from both public and regulatory bodies. This research assesses the success of rehabilitation plans implemented to revegetate a lignite mine-disturbed area, near the village of Giral in western Rajasthan State. Rehabilitation success was achieved within the environmental constraints of this northwest Indian hot-desert ecosystem using a combination of: (1) backfilling (abandoned pits) with minespoil and of covering the backfilled-surfaces with fresh topsoil to a thickness of about 0??30 m; (2) use of micro-catchment rainwater harvesting (MCWH) technique; (3) soil profile modification approaches; (4) plant establishment methodologies; and (5) the selection of appropriate germplasm material (trees, shrubs and grasses). Preliminary results indicate that the resulting vegetative cover will be capable of self-perpetuation under natural conditions while at the same time meeting the land-use requirements of the local people. The minespoil is alkaline in nature and has high electrical conductance. The average content of organic carbon, N, P and K is lower than in the regional topsoil. However, the concentration of Ca, Mg, Na and total S in the minespoil is much higher than in the topsoil. Further, the spoil material has no biological activity. Enhanced plant growth was achieved in MCWH plots, compared to control plots, where minespoil moisture storage was improved by 18-43 per cent. The rehabilitation protocol used at the site appears to have been successful because, in addition to the planted species, desirable native invasive species have become established. This study developed methods for the rehabilitation of lignite mine-disturbed areas and has also resulted in an understanding of rehabilitation processes in arid regions with an emphasis on the long-term monitoring of rehabilitation success. ?? 2004 John Wiley and Sons, Ltd.

Land Degradation and Development