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Toward climate change refugia conservation at an ecoregion scale

Climate change uncertainty poses serious challenges to conservation efforts. One emerging conservation strategy is to identify and conserve climate change refugia: areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change that enable persistence of valued resources. This management paradigm may be pursued at broad scales by leveraging existing resources and placing them into a tangible framework to stimulate further collaboration that fosters management decision-making. Here, we describe a framework for moving toward operationalizing climate change refugia conservation at an ecoregion scale with an analysis for the Sierra Nevada ecoregion (CA, USA). Structured within the Climate Change Refugia Conservation Cycle, we identify a preliminary suite of conservation priorities for the ecoregion, and demonstrate how existing mapping, data, and applications could be used for identifying, prioritizing, managing, and monitoring refugia. We focus on six stakeholder-identified conservation priorities, including two process-based refugial priorities (snow and fire), and four ecosystem-based refugial priorities (meadows, giant sequoia, old growth forests, and alpine communities). This pilot overview of concepts and resources provides a foundation for both near-term implementation and further discussion in moving from science to conservation practice. Such an approach may provide new practical insights for ecosystem management at ecoregion scales in the face of climate change.

California

A novel framework to predict relative habitat selection in aquatic systems: Applying machine learning and resource selection functions to acoustic telemetry data from multiple shark species

Resource selection functions (RSFs) have been widely applied to animal tracking data to examine relative habitat selection and to help guide management and conservation strategies. While readily used in terrestrial ecology, RSFs have yet to be extensively used within marine systems. As acoustic telemetry continues to be a pervasive approach within marine environments, incorporation of RSFs can provide new insights to help prioritize habitat protection and restoration to meet conservation goals. To overcome statistical hurdles and achieve high prediction accuracy, machine learning algorithms could be paired with RSFs to predict relative habitat selection for a species within and even outside the monitoring range of acoustic receiver arrays, making this a valuable tool for marine ecologists and resource managers. Here, we apply RSFs using machine learning to an acoustic telemetry dataset of four shark species to explore and predict species-specific habitat selection within a marine protected area. In addition, we also apply this RSF-machine learning approach to investigate predator-prey relationships by comparing and averaging tiger shark relative selection values with the relative selection values derived for eight potential prey-species. We provide methodological considerations along with a framework and flexible approach to apply RSFs with machine learning algorithms to acoustic telemetry data and suggest marine ecologists and resource managers consider adopting such tools to help guide both conservation and management strategies.

Buck Island Reef National Monument, St Croix

Value-focused framework for defining landscape-scale conservation targets

Conservation of natural resources can be challenging in a rapidly changing world and require collaborative efforts for success. Conservation planning is the process of deciding how to protect, conserve, and enhance or minimize loss of natural and cultural resources. Establishing conservation targets (also called indicators or endpoints), the measurable expressions of desired resource conditions, can help with site-specific up to landscape-scale conservation planning. Using conservation targets and tracking them through time can deliver benefits such as insight into ecosystem health and providing early warnings about undesirable trends. We describe an approach using value-focused thinking to develop statewide conservation targets for Florida. Using such an approach allowed us to first identify stakeholder objectives and then define conservation targets to meet those objectives. Stakeholders were able to see how their shared efforts fit into the broader conservation context, and also anticipate the benefits of multi-agency and -organization collaboration. We developed an iterative process for large-scale conservation planning that included defining a shared framework for the process, defining the conservation targets themselves, as well as developing management and monitoring strategies for evaluation of their effectiveness. The process we describe is applicable to other geographies where multiple parties are seeking to implement collaborative, large-scale biological planning.

Journal for Nature Conservation

Forbs included in conservation seed mixes exhibit variable blooming detection rates and cost-effectiveness: Implications for pollinator habitat design

Although forb-rich plantings for pollinator habitat are becoming more common, natural resource managers lack insight on the cost-effectiveness of forbs seeded in private land conservation programs. Additional information on the possible benefits of including more forb species in a mix may help guide the design of future pollinator habitat. We examined the detection of blooming forbs from seed mixes, colonization of non-seeded blooming forbs, and bee utilization of forbs on private lands enrolled in United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) conservation programs. By obtaining the original seed mixes used on conservation program lands and sampling forbs and bees, we provide a first-hand evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of USDA conservation plantings in a field setting. We identified seeded forbs with the highest blooming detection rates and the most common colonizing forbs across 27 sites, the majority of which were considered young conservation plantings. We additionally designated 16 forbs as the most cost-effective due to their higher-than-average blooming detection rate and lower-than-average seed cost. We found a positive association between seed mix richness and number of blooming, seeded forbs detected and found a negative association with blooming, non-native colonizing forbs, which highlights potential benefits of increasing forb richness in seed mixes. However, we did not observe an association between seed mix richness and wild bee or honey bee counts. Examining the cost-effectiveness of seeded forbs on USDA conservation enrollments and subsequent bee utilization can inform land managers in designing seed mixes for pollinator habitat.

Restoration Ecology

Forecasting sea otter recolonization: Insights from isotopic analysis of modern and zooarchaeological populations

Retrospective datasets offer essential context for conservation by revealing species’ ecological roles before industrial-era human impacts. We analysed isotopic compositions of pre-industrial and modern sea otters ( Enhydra lutris ) to reconstruct pre-extirpation ecology and offer insights for management. Our study focuses on southeast Alaska (SEAK), where sea otters are recolonizing, and northern Oregon, where translocations are being considered. We measured bulk bone collagen δ 13 C and δ 15 N values and essential amino acid δ 13 C values of extirpated sea otters from archaeological contexts, and bulk isotopic values from vibrissae of modern SEAK sea otters. We compare these results with published isotopic data of potential prey and additional archaeological datasets. In SEAK, our data show pre-industrial sea otter populations consumed infaunal bivalves and used soft-sediment (33%) and kelp forest habitats (67%), with sub-regional variation. We anticipate current populations will expand into this historical niche, and conflict with regional traditional/subsistence bivalve fisheries will persist. In northern Oregon, isotopic data from extirpated sea otters indicate past consumption of low trophic level invertebrates and a stronger reliance on kelp forests (88%) rather than soft-sediment habitats, highlighting the importance of kelp forests for future translocations. Our work exemplifies the value of historical ecology in informing conservation strategies for recovering species.

Alaska, Oregon

Spatial scaling patterns and functional redundancies in a changing boreal lake landscape

Global transformations extend beyond local habitats; therefore, larger-scale approaches are needed to assess community-level responses and resilience to unfolding environmental changes. Using longterm data (1996–2011), we evaluated spatial patterns and functional redundancies in the littoral invertebrate communities of 85 Swedish lakes, with the objective of assessing their potential resilience to environmental change at regional scales (that is, spatial resilience). Multivariate spatial modeling was used to differentiate groups of invertebrate species exhibiting spatial patterns in composition and abundance (that is, deterministic species) from those lacking spatial patterns (that is, stochastic species). We then determined the functional feeding attributes of the deterministic and stochastic invertebrate species, to infer resilience. Between one and three distinct spatial patterns in invertebrate composition and abundance were identified in approximately one-third of the species; the remainder were stochastic. We observed substantial differences in metrics between deterministic and stochastic species. Functional richness and diversity decreased over time in the deterministic group, suggesting a loss of resilience in regional invertebrate communities. However, taxon richness and redundancy increased monotonically in the stochastic group, indicating the capacity of regional invertebrate communities to adapt to change. Our results suggest that a refined picture of spatial resilience emerges if patterns of both the deterministic and stochastic species are accounted for. Spatially extensive monitoring may help increase our mechanistic understanding of community-level responses and resilience to regional environmental change, insights that are critical for developing management and conservation agendas in this current period of rapid environmental transformation.

Ecosystems

Why bother about wildlife disease?

In most developed countries, the maintenance of the numbers of wildlife 1 is vested in the natural resource agencies of those countries. During earlier times, game species were the primary focus of natural resource agencies 2,3 however, current wildlife conservation continues to transition towards a more holistic focus on biodiversity 4 and environmental health 5,6 . Nevertheless, that transition lags behind in addressing wildlife disease in “…the struggle for existence between different forms of life…”. 7 Thus, the primary objective of this presentation is to provide a pragmatic assessment of wildlife disease that is irrespective of one’s orientation towards wildlife conservation. A secondary objective is to highlight the changing role of disease over time as a wildlife conservation factor. That transition is relevant to the insights provided for current and future efforts focused on sustaining global biodiversity and desired levels of wildlife populations in nature.

Circular

Dispersal

The ability of species to migrate and disperse is a trait that has interested ecologists for many years. Now that so many species and ecosystems face major environmental threats from habitat fragmentation and global climate change, the ability of species to adapt to these changes by dispersing, migrating, or moving between patches of habitat can be crucial to ensuring their survival. This book provides a timely and wide-ranging overview of the study of dispersal and incorporates much of the latest research. The causes, mechanisms, and consequences of dispersal at the individual, population, species and community levels are considered. The potential of new techniques and models for studying dispersal, drawn from molecular biology and demography, is also explored. Perspectives and insights are offered from the fields of evolution, conservation biology and genetics. Throughout the book, theoretical approaches are combined with empirical data, and care has been taken to include examples from as wide a range of species as possible.

Book

Inferring Brown-Capped Rosy-Finch demography and breeding distribution trends from long-term wintering data in New Mexico

The three North American Rosy-Finch species (Brown-capped [ Leucosticte australis ], Black [ L. atrata ], and Gray-crowned [ L. tephrocotis ]) are among the most climate-threatened species in the United States. New Mexico is an important location for investigating the effects of climate change because it is the southernmost location in which Brown-capped Rosy-Finches breed and the southernmost location where all three Rosy-Finch species co-occur during winter. In the context of climate change, this range boundary is important to study because it is the first part of the range anticipated to cross a threshold of unsuitability for these species with increasing temperatures. Rosy-Finches are difficult to study during the breeding season due to the high elevation and remoteness of their breeding grounds; therefore, winter studies may lend insight into population trends and provide direction for conservation actions based on knowledge of the breeding origins of wintering birds. The goals of our study were to investigate long-term survival and migration trends from wintering Brown-capped Rosy-Finches in New Mexico and evaluate the efficacy of radio frequency identification (RFID)-equipped artificial feeders to monitor population trends. As of May 2025, we have conducted a robust design survival analysis on 22 years of mark-recapture data from a particular wintering site in New Mexico, assessed patterns in the breeding origins of individuals captured at this site using stable isotope analysis, and examined patterns in data collected via RFID. Our main findings from this study are that annual survival probability of Rosy-Finches wintering in New Mexico is low compared to that of other migratory passerines, that Brown-capped Rosy-Finches wintering in New Mexico likely originate from a variety of locations across their breeding range, and that RFID monitoring is useful in improving survival estimates in Rosy-Finches, particularly in short-term studies.

New Mexico

Conservation genomics in a changing arctic

Although logistically challenging to study, the Arctic is a bellwether for global change and is becoming a model for questions pertinent to the persistence of biodiversity. Disruption of Arctic ecosystems is accelerating, with impacts ranging from mixing of biotic communities to individual behavioral responses. Understanding these changes is crucial for conservation and sustainable economic development. Genomic approaches are providing transformative insights into biotic responses to environmental change, but have seen limited application in the Arctic due to a series of limitations. To meet the promise of genome analyses, we urge rigorous development of biorepositories from high latitudes to provide essential libraries to improve the conservation, monitoring, and management of Arctic ecosystems through genomic approaches.

Trends in Ecology and Evolution

Evaluating the effects of nest management on a recovering raptor using integrated population modeling

Evaluating population responses to management is a crucial component of successful conservation programs. Models predicting population growth under different management scenarios can provide key insights into the efficacy of specific management actions both in reversing population decline and in maintaining recovered populations. Bald eagle ( Haliaeetus leucocephalus ) conservation in the United States has seen many successes over the last 50 years, yet the extent to which the bald eagle population has recovered in Arizona, an important population within the Southwest region, remains an area of debate. Estimates of the species' population trend and an evaluation of ongoing nest-level management practices are needed to inform management decisions. We developed a Bayesian integrated population model (IPM) and population viability analysis (PVA) using a 36-year dataset to assess Arizona bald eagle population dynamics and their underlying demographic rates under current and possible future management practices. We estimated that the population grew from 77 females in 1993 to 180 females in 2022, an average yearly increase of 3%. Breeding sites that had trained personnel (i.e., nestwatchers) stationed at active nests to mitigate human disturbance had a 28% higher reproductive output than nests without this protection. Uncertainty around population trends was high, but scenarios that continued the nestwatcher program were less likely to predict abundance declines than scenarios without nestwatchers. Here, the IPM-PVA framework provides a useful tool both for estimating the effectiveness of past management actions and for exploring the management needs of a delisted population, highlighting that continued management action may be necessary to maintain population viability even after meeting certain recovery criteria.

Arizona

Not all who meander are lost: Migrating sea lamprey follow river thalwegs to facilitate safe and efficient passage upstream

Efficient navigation is crucial for the reproductive success of many migratory species, often driven by competing pressures to conserve energy and reduce predation risk. Little is known about how non-homing species achieve this balance. We show that sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ), an ancient extant vertebrate, uses persistent patterns in hydro-geomorphology to quickly and efficiently navigate through complex ecosystems. Hydrodynamic flow models coupled with bathymetric mapping and fine-scale acoustic telemetry revealed movement paths that tracked thalweg scour channels, which are often the deepest and fastest-flowing sections of a river. These paths allow rapid and efficient upstream migration and suggest the existence of a bathymetric highway system. Near-substrate swimming along this path resulted in a median of 5.8% energy savings while also promoting improved safety from nocturnally active predators. We hypothesize sea lampreys use hydrostatic pressure-guided rheotaxis to achieve this navigation. It is likely this tactic relies on sensory information from the animal's primitive lateral line and perhaps the inner ear. Insights from this study can be used to redesign conservation practices to achieve improved control where the animal is invasive and improved fish passage within its native range.

Michigan

Habitat mosaics and path analysis can improve biological conservation of aquatic biodiversity in ecosystems with low-head dams

Conserving native biodiversity depends on restoring functional habitats in the face of human-induced disturbances. Low-head dams are a ubiquitous human impact that degrades aquatic ecosystems worldwide. To improve our understanding of how low-head dams impact habitat and associated biodiversity, our research examined complex interactions among three spheres of the total environment. i.e., how low-head dams ( anthroposphere ) affect aquatic habitat ( hydrosphere ), and native biodiversity ( biosphere ) in streams and rivers. Creation of lake-like habitats upstream of low-head dams is a well-documented major impact of dams. Alterations downstream of low head dams also have important consequences, but these downstream dam effects are more challenging to detect. In a multidisciplinary field study at five dammed and five undammed sites within the Neosho River basin, KS, we tested hypotheses about two types of habitat sampling (transect and mosaic) and two types of statistical analyses (analysis of covariance and path analysis). We used fish as our example of biodiversity alteration. Our research provided three insights that can aid environmental professionals who seek to conserve and restore fish biodiversity in aquatic ecosystems threatened by human modifications. First, a mosaic approach identified habitat alterations below low-head dams (e.g. increased proportion of riffles) that were not detected using the more commonly-used transect sampling approach. Second, the habitat mosaic approach illustrated how low-head dams reduced natural variation in stream habitat. Third, path analysis, a statistical approach that tests indirect effects, showed how dams, habitat, and fish biodiversity interact. Specifically, path analysis revealed that low-head dams increased the proportion of riffle habitat below dams, and, as a result, indirectly increased fish species richness . Furthermore, the pool habitat that was created above low-head dams dramatically decreased fish species richness. As we show here, mosaic habitat sampling and path analysis can help conservation practitioners improve science-based management plans for disturbed aquatic systems worldwide.

Kansas

Identifying demographic and environmental drivers of population dynamics and viability in an endangered top predator using an integrated model

Knowledge about the demographic and environmental factors underlying population dynamics is fundamental to designing effective conservation measures to recover depleted wildlife populations. However, sparse monitoring data or persistent knowledge gaps about threats make it difficult to identify the drivers of population dynamics. In situations where small, declining, or depleted populations show continued evidence of decline for unknown reasons, integrated population models can make efficient use of available data to improve our understanding of demography, provide fundamental insights into factors that may be limiting recovery, and support conservation decisions. We used mark-resight and aerial survey data from 2004 to 2018 to build a Bayesian integrated population model for the Cook Inlet population of beluga whales ( Delphinapterus leucas ), which is listed as endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. We examined the effects of prey availability and oceanographic conditions on beluga vital rates and conducted a population viability analysis to predict extinction risk across a range of hypothetical changes in beluga survival and reproduction. Our results indicated that while the survival of breeding females (0.97; 95% CI: 0.95–0.99) and young calves (0.92; 0.80–0.98) was relatively high, the survival of nonbreeders (0.94; 0.91–0.97) and fecundity (0.28; 0.22–0.36) may be depressed. Furthermore, our analysis indicates that the population will likely continue to decline, with a 17–32% probability of extinction in 150 years. Our model highlights the utility of integrated population modeling for maximizing the usefulness of available data and identifying factors contributing to the failure of protected populations to recover. This framework can be used to evaluate proposed conservation and recovery efforts for this and other endangered species.

Animal Conservation

The genetic network of greater sage-grouse: Range-wide identification of keystone hubs of connectivity

Genetic networks can characterize complex genetic relationships among groups of individuals, which can be used to rank nodes most important to the overall connectivity of the system. Ranking allows scarce resources to be guided toward nodes integral to connectivity. The greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) is a species of conservation concern that breeds on spatially discrete leks that must remain connected by genetic exchange for population persistence. We genotyped 5,950 individuals from 1,200 greater sage-grouse leks distributed across the entire species’ geographic range. We found a small-world network composed of 458 nodes connected by 14,481 edges. This network was composed of hubs—that is, nodes facilitating gene flow across the network—and spokes—that is, nodes where connectivity is served by hubs. It is within these hubs that the greatest genetic diversity was housed. Using indices of network centrality, we identified hub nodes of greatest conservation importance. We also identified keystone nodes with elevated centrality despite low local population size. Hub and keystone nodes were found across the entire species’ contiguous range, although nodes with elevated importance to network-wide connectivity were found more central: especially in northeastern, central, and southwestern Wyoming and eastern Idaho. Nodes among which genes are most readily exchanged were mostly located in Montana and northern Wyoming, as well as Utah and eastern Nevada. The loss of hub or keystone nodes could lead to the disintegration of the network into smaller, isolated subnetworks. Protecting both hub nodes and keystone nodes will conserve genetic diversity and should maintain network connections to ensure a resilient and viable population over time. Our analysis shows that network models can be used to model gene flow, offering insights into its pattern and process, with application to prioritizing landscapes for conservation.

Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, Utah, Nevada

Aquatic vegetation types identified during early and late phases of vegetation recovery in the Upper Mississippi River

Assemblage patterns and processes of aquatic vegetation in most large floodplain rivers are not well understood, particularly after plant recovery. Identifying vegetation types, which are recurring plant groupings based on species composition, diversity, and abundances, can describe plant assembly patterns and environmental drivers that aid conservation planning and management. We used a 22-year dataset ( n = 18,000 sampling plots) to identify aquatic vegetation types during an “early phase” and “late phase” of plant recovery at multiple spatial scales nested within a 500-km river reach of the Upper Mississippi River, USA. We hypothesized that vegetation types varied according to scale because of the stark environmental differences among riverine habitats and differing regional species pools along the river's latitudinal gradient, and that the late phase of recovery had developed several new vegetation types. We first used cluster analyses at multiple spatiotemporal scales to identify the number of vegetation types and their characteristics, such as indicator species, species compositions and abundances, and diversity index. Then we applied a multivariate regression to pinpoint environmental factors (such as hydrodynamics, system productivity, local habitat, and water quality) that structured those vegetation types. Clustering revealed that ~90% of plots irrespective of recovery phase were not classified into vegetation types, which indicated that most aquatic sampling plots are unique in species composition and unpredictable. However, impounded areas upriver from dams had matured five vegetation types: lotus ( Nelumbo lutea Willd.), submersed (a mix of 11 common submersed species), watercelery ( Vallisneria americana Michx.), arrowheads ( Sagittaria rigida Pursh and Sagittaria latifolia Willd.), and a diverse community (with high diversity indices and multiple life forms). The vegetation types were associated with three environmental gradients related to inundation depth and duration, system productivity, and water clarity. These five vegetation types are known to be of high ecological value to fish and wildlife and thus targets for restoration, for example, the watercelery community is principal forage for migrating canvasback ducks ( Aythya valisineria ) along the Mississippi River flyway. Our results provide insights on vegetation assembly during recovery and aid habitat conservation by providing quantitative, environmental targets for restoration.

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin

Paradigm versus paradox on the prairie: Testing competing stream fish movement frameworks using an imperiled Great Plains minnow

Background Movement information can improve conservation of imperiled species, yet movement is not quantified for many organisms in need of conservation. Prairie chub ( Macrhybopsis australis ) is a regionally endemic freshwater fish with unquantified movement ecology and currently considered for listing under the Endangered Species Act. The purpose of this study was to test competing ecological theories for prairie chub movement, including the colonization cycle hypothesis (CCH) that posits adults must make upstream movements to compensate for downstream drift at early life stages, and the restricted movement paradigm (RMP) that describes populations as heterogeneous mixes of mostly stationary and few mobile fish. Methods We tagged prairie chub with visible implant elastomer during the summer (May–August) of 2019 and 2020 to estimate net distance moved (m) and movement rate (m/d). We tested the hypotheses that observed prairie chub movement would be greater than expected under the RMP and that prairie chub movement would be biased in an upstream direction as predicted by the CCH. Results We tagged 5771 prairie chub and recaptured 213 individuals across 2019 and 2020. The stationary and mobile components of the prairie chub population moved an order of magnitude further and faster than expected under the RMP during both years. However, we found only limited evidence of upstream bias in adult prairie chub movement as would be expected under the CCH. Conclusions Our findings are partly inconsistent with the RMP and the CCH, and instead closely follow the drift paradox (DP), in which upstream populations persist despite presumed downstream drift during early life stages and in the apparent absence of upstream bias in recolonization. Previous mathematical solutions to the DP suggest organisms that experience drift maintain upstream populations through either minimization of drift periods such that small amounts of upstream movement are needed to counter the effects of advection or increasing dispersal regardless of directionality. We conclude that the resolution to the DP for prairie chub is an increase in total dispersal and our results provide insight into the spatial scales at which prairie chub conservation and management may need to operate to maintain broad-scale habitat connectivity.

Oklahoma, Texas

Modelling effects of invasive species and drought on crayfish extinction risk and population dynamics

Hydrological alteration, which may be exacerbated by climate change, is known to facilitate aquatic species invasion. Altered hydrology, invasive species, and the additive effects of these stressors pose a threat to aquatic biodiversity. Understanding extinction risk in the context of these stressors is crucial for prioritizing conservation efforts. As case studies, three narrow‐ranged endemic crayfish species of conservation concern ( Faxonius marchandi , Faxonius roberti , and Cambarus hubbsi ) in the Ozark Highlands of Arkansas and Missouri, USA, were used to examine the effects of invasive species and drought on crayfish population dynamics. The objectives of this study were to model the population dynamics of these imperilled species, assess how these populations may be affected under increased invasion effects and intensified drought, determine potential refuge effects, and examine the sensitivity of quasi‐extinction to model parameters. ramas‐metapop was used to construct stage‐based demographic models. Terminal extinction risk, median time to quasi‐extinction, and metapopulation occupancy were used to assess population viability under different scenarios. Cambarus hubbsi appears to be highly susceptible to decline if survival rates are reduced by simulated drought, as they have low reproductive potential and mature slowly. Models indicated that potential refuges allow F. roberti and C. hubbsi to persist, even when invasion and drought effects were extreme. Conversely, barriers to dispersal for F. marchandi led to reduced quasi‐extinction times and the greatest extinction risk under most invasion scenarios. Quasi‐extinction was most sensitive to changes in juvenile survival for all species examined, which indicates that improved estimates of stage‐specific demographic parameters for crayfish will improve model predictions. An increased understanding of the mechanisms of displacement of native crayfish by invasive crayfish is needed for most crayfish species. Limiting the spread of invasive species, maintaining natural habitat and hydrological regimes, and gaining insight into life histories and demographic parameters will increase the ability to conserve endemic and imperilled crayfish.

Arkansas, Missouri