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USGS2024

Observing systems, modeling, and forecasting

Predicting harmful algal blooms (HABs) requires integrating physical, chemical, and biological data collected from observing networks and then assimilating these data into models, which are used to generate forecasts. In 2005, the Harmful Algal Research and Response: A National Environmental Science Strategy 2005-2015 (HARRNESS, 2005) made recommendations on how to improve HAB modeling and forecasting over the next decade. Key HARRNESS recommendations related to sensing, networking, and modeling HABs included: ● Support the development and validation of new and improved technologies for remote cell and toxin detection, and for modeling and forecasting, ● Improve coordination of monitoring/ and modeling efforts, both at national and regional levels, ● Improve the use of networking technologies for monitoring and modeling efforts, ● Conduct sustained time series measurements of the biotic, chemical, and physical environments impacted by HABs, ● Develop food web models on the ecosystem fate and effects of toxins, ● Develop and improve species-specific models that link to physical-biological models. Here we review HAB observing, modeling, and forecasting advances and technologies and recommend research and management priorities for the next decade and beyond. Our report encompasses sensing technologies, sensor networking and data management, models and forecasts, and the paths to operationalize forecasts. Continued improvements of deployable sensors are foundational to improving early warning indicators, models, and forecasts, which are only as good as the underlying data. Sensing technology has advanced considerably in the last decade; for example, more capable fluorometric pigment sensors can track changes in bloom biomass in real-time. Additionally, automated imaging/classifying systems to identify and quantify key harmful algal (HA) taxa are being routinely deployed. However, deployable toxin sensors are available for only some HAB toxins and continue to be identified as a critical need by researchers and managers. As more and improved sensors and technologies become available, the data quality associated with each sensor needs to be assessed. Data quality encompasses the reliability, accuracy, and uncertainty associated with sensor-generated data. These data need to be of known quality so that researchers, managers, and end-users can reliably determine if the information is appropriate for their intended applications. Many of the data quality recommendations from HARRNESS (2005) are still relevant and have been reiterated within the management community. Understanding and documenting data quality, and when applicable, standardizing best practices for sensor use, continue to be recommended.

Report↗

USGS2013

Increases in dissolved organic carbon accelerate loss of toxic Al in Adirondack lakes recovering from acidification

Increasing pH and decreasing Al in surface waters recovering from acidification have been accompanied by increasing concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and associated organic acids that partially offset pH increases and complicate assessments of recovery from acidification. To better understand the processes of recovery, monthly chemistry from 42 lakes in the Adirondack region, NY, collected from 1994 to 2011, were used to (1) evaluate long-term changes in DOC and associated strongly acidic organic acids and (2) use the base-cation surplus (BCS) as a chemical index to assess the effects of increasing DOC concentrations on the Al chemistry of these lakes. Over the study period, the BCS increased (p < 0.01) and concentrations of toxic inorganic monomeric Al (IMAl) decreased (p < 0.01). The decreases in IMAl were greater than expected from the increases in the BCS. Higher DOC concentrations that increased organic complexation of Al resulted in a decrease in the IMAl fraction of total monomeric Al from 57% in 1994 to 23% in 2011. Increasing DOC concentrations have accelerated recovery in terms of decreasing toxic Al beyond that directly accomplished by reducing atmospheric deposition of strong mineral acids.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2013

Challenge theme 4: People in the Borderlands: Chapter 6 in United States-Mexican Borderlands: Facing tomorrow's challenges through USGS science

The management of shared resources in the United States–Mexican border region requires cooperation from the people of both countries to assess and understand their relation to the environment. Society is dependent on the long-term healthy functioning of ecosystems and their ability to supply food and raw materials. Likewise, resources and services obtained from nature could be used efficiently within the society. A more equitable distribution of costs and benefits related to goods and services can lead to fewer tensions and a higher quality of life for all the people in the Borderlands. Urban development, background contamination from mineral ore deposits, irrigation, sewage effluent, and even global climate change all have the potential to alter the stability of the fragile systems in the Borderlands (Brady and others, 2001, 2002; Norman, 2007, 2010; Gu and others, 2008; Norman, Gray, and others, 2008; Norman, Hirsch, and Ward, 2008; Norman, Callegary, and others, 2010; Norman, Huth, and others, 2010; Norman, Levick, and others, 2010; Norman, Tallent-Halsell, and others, 2010; Norman, Villarreal, and others 2012). Social efficiency means that because resources should be used where they are needed most, they should be distributed proportionally among human societies and individuals (Azar and others, 1996). Despite the critical role natural resources play in maintaining human and environmental health, current knowledge of the manner in which natural and human-caused forces interact to limit these resources—including their quality and quantity (such as through spatiotemporal changes in precipitation, evapotranspiration, pumping of groundwater, and release of contaminants)—is inadequate. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is trying to understand the relation between changing landscapes, changing demographics, and a changing climate in the Borderlands while the environmental, economic, and societal issues continue to be intertwined between the two nations.

United States-Mexico Borderlands↗

USGS2019

Functional and geographic components of risk for climate sensitive vertebrates in the Pacific Northwest, USA

Rarity and life history traits inform multiple dimensions of intrinsic risk to climate and environmental change and can help systematically identify at-risk species. We quantified relative geographic rarity (area of occupancy), climate niche breadth, and life history traits for 114 freshwater fishes, amphibians, and reptiles in the U.S. Pacific Northwest. Our approach leveraged presence-only, publicly available data and traits-based inference to evaluate area of occupancy, climate sensitivity (i.e., climate niche breadth), and a Rarity and Climate Sensitivity (RCS) index of all species across multiple geographic extents, grain sizes, and data types. The RCS index was relatively stable across extents, grains, and data types, with climate sensitivity differentiating species with otherwise similar areas of occupancy. We also found that species with sensitivity-associated traits (e.g., long generation time, low fecundity) were not necessarily the same species identified as at-risk with geographical approaches (small range size, small climate niche breadth). Many multispecies assessments using coarse-scale data (e.g., entire range maps or convex-hull approaches) often focus on a single dimension of intrinsic risk; others rely on data-intensive models only applicable to a few well-studied species. What remains is a need for an approach that enables multispecies, multidimensional assessment efforts. This is particularly true at regional scales, where management needs require assessments that are intermediate to coarse- and fine-scale approaches. We demonstrate that by considering multiple dimensions of intrinsic risk to climate change (range size, climate sensitivity, and traits), site-specific locality data may offer a pathway for ensuring vulnerable, understudied species do not go overlooked in conservation.

Pacific Northwest↗

USGS1997

Perceptions of species abundance, distribution, and diversity: Lessons from four decades of sampling on a government-managed reserve

We examined data relative to species abundance, distribution, and diversity patterns of reptiles and amphibians to determine how perceptions change over time and with level of sampling effort. Location data were compiled on more than one million individual captures or observations of 98 species during a 44-year study period on the US Department of Energy’s (DOE) Savannah River Site National Environmental Research Park (SRS-NERP) in South Carolina. We suggest that perceptions of herpetofaunal species diversity are strongly dependent on level of effort and that land management decisions based on short-term data bases for some faunal groups could result in serious errors in environmental management. We provide evidence that acquiring information on biodiversity distribution patterns is compatible with multiyear spatially extensive research programs and also provide a perspective of what might be achieved if long-term, coordinated research efforts were instituted nationwide. To conduct biotic surveys on government-managed lands, we recommend revisions in the methods used by government agencies to acquire and report biodiversity data. We suggest that government and industry employees engaged in biodiversity survey efforts develop proficiency in field identification for one or more major taxonomic groups and be encouraged to measure the status of populations quantitatively with consistent and reliable methodologies. We also suggest that widespread academic cooperation in the dissemination of information on regional patterns of biodiversity could result by establishment of a peer-reviewed, scientifically rigorous journal concerned with status and trends of the biota of the United States.

Environmental Management↗

USGS2011

Chapter 3: Changes to the Wyoming Basins landscape from oil and natural gas development

Oil and natural gas have been produced in Wyoming since the late 1800s although the rate of extraction has increased substantially in the last two decades. Well pads, roads, and infrastructure built to support resource development alter native vegetation configuration; however, the rate and effect of land cover change resulting from oil and gas extraction has not been quantified across the region. We used a Geographic Information System (GIS) to model development through time and assess change to native vegetation at two spatial extents (field and subbasin) within the Wyoming portion of the Wyoming Basins Ecoregional Assessment (WBEA) area. Since 1900, a minimum of 1,703 km 2 of native vegetation in the WBEA area has been replaced by well pads or roads. Shrublands were, and continue to be, the dominant land cover class and the cover type most affected by oil and gas extraction. Average shrubland patch size has decreased by approximately 10% at the subbasin extent in the WBEA. Core area (≥60 m from edge) size declined by 13% as road development fragmented formerly continuous patches. To date, the majority of land cover change has occurred in formally identified oil and gas fields, which cover about 1% of the WBEA in Wyoming. Approximately 7.5% of shrubland within oil and gas fields has been converted to well pad or a road supporting a well, and shrubland patch size has declined by 45%. Resource reserves, especially natural gas, have been identified outside traditional fields, and development will likely expand as resource development becomes more cost-effective. Revegetation guidelines are in place for development areas addressed by Environmental Impact Assessments although no quantitative data are available to assess how well restoration efforts are restoring landscapes and connecting fragments.

Wyoming↗

USGS2020

Population and habitat analyses for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in the bi-state distinct population segment—2018 update

Executive Summary The Bi-State Distinct Population Segment (Bi-State DPS) of greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus , hereinafter “sage-grouse”) represents a genetically distinct and geographically isolated population that straddles the border between Nevada and California. The primary threat to these sage-grouse populations is the expansion of single-leaf pinyon ( Pinus monophylla ) and Utah juniper ( Juniperus osteosperma ) into sagebrush ecosystems, which fragments and reduces population connectivity and survival. Other important threats include low water availability during brood-rearing, particularly during drought, and increased predation by common ravens ( Corvus corax ), a generalist predator often associated with anthropogenic resource subsidies. Although the Bi-State DPS occurs at high elevations relative to sage-grouse range-wide, changes in historical wildfire cycles and the conversion of native shrubs to invasive annual grasslands still threaten these populations. The Bi-State DPS has undergone multiple federal status assessments and associated litigation. For example, in October of 2013, the Bi-State DPS was proposed for listing as threatened under the Endangered Species Act of 1973 by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), then withdrawn in April 2015. The withdrawal decision was challenged, and in May 2018, a Federal district court ordered the withdrawal decision to be vacated, and USFWS was required to re-open the October 2013 listing evaluation. In response, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), with State and Federal collaborators, embarked on a multipronged analysis to provide current and best available science regarding population status of sage-grouse within the Bi-State DPS. Using data from a long-term monitoring program, we carried out four analytical study objectives, and here, we provide preliminary results of these analyses. First, we used integrated population modeling (IPM) to predict annual population abundance and annual finite rate of population change for the Bi-State DPS, as a whole, and for each subpopulation between 1995 and 2018. Because sage-grouse exhibit population cycles (periodic increases and decreases in abundance across approximately 6- to 10-year wavelengths), we estimated trends across three nested temporal scales that represent one (11 years), two (18 years), and three (24 years) complete population cycles. These estimates of relatively long-term averaged population change account for temporal (that is, interannual) variation. Our model predicted population abundance for the Bi-State DPS during 2018 at 3,305 individuals (2,247–4,683), with the majority occupying Bodie Hills and Long Valley. The model also predicted cyclic dynamics in abundance through time with evidence of 24-year population growth and slight trends of decline over the past 18 years. Specifically, across the Bi-State DPS as a whole, we estimated annual average at 0.99, 0.99, and 1.02 over the one, two, and three population cycles, which equated to a 10.5 percent, 16.6 percent decrease, and 60.0 percent increase in abundance over the 11-, 18-, and 24-year cycles. Estimated abundance in 2018 had not reached numbers lower than those predicted during 1995. However, we found spatial variation in population trends across the three cycles. Bodie Hills subpopulation comprised the greatest (1,521) and exhibited average annual greater than 1.0 across all periods resulting in average annual increases of 7 percent. This relatively large subpopulation has grown 5 times larger than what was predicted in 1995 while experiencing cyclical dynamics within that period. Conversely, other smaller subpopulations within the Bi-State DPS exhibited average annual equal to or less than 1.0 resulting in estimated 10-year risks of extirpation ranging from 2.0 to 76.1 percent. In general, evidence of decline among smaller subpopulations was greatest for the most recent period (2008–18) compared to a period that encompassed three full population cycles (24-year). This difference coincides with an intense period of drought that began in 2012. For comparative purposes as part of this first objective, we conducted a similar analysis for populations of sage-grouse within Nevada and California but outside the Bi-State DPS. We developed a region-wide and distance-weighted IPM using lek count from Nevada Department of Wildlife (NDOW) and California Department of Fish and Wildlife (CDFW) databases and with telemetry data collected by USGS across 12 sage-grouse subpopulations. Our models predicted similar patterns in population cycling outside the Bi-State DPS but with much stronger evidence of long-term declines across 24 years. Specifically, median averaged across each year of the 11-, 18-, and 24-year periods resulted in average annual values of 0.94, 0.97, and 0.99, respectively. These values equate to 41.0 percent, 38.5 percent, and 21.3 percent declines over the corresponding periods. Second, we used lek count data in a state-space modeling framework to compare trends in population abundance across different spatial scales (that is, leks versus Bi-State DPS). This hierarchical framework allowed us to disentangle declines associated with climate conditions as opposed to other local level factors that might signal the need for management intervention. Specifically, we identified 7 leks that were both declining and recently decoupled from larger spatial scale trends, typically governed by climatic conditions (referred to as soft or hard signals). The goal of this analysis was to provide an early warning system that might have implications for conservation actions at local scales. Third, we developed phenological (spring, summer–fall, and winter) and reproductive life stage (nesting, early brood-rearing, and late-brood rearing) based resource selection functions using various environmental covariates. We report rankings of variable importance for each season and life stage, developed maps of habitat selection indices (HSI), binned categories representing low, moderate, and high classes of quality (where any category greater than or equal to low indicated selected habitat) for each phenological season and life stage, and produced composite maps by selected phenological and reproductive stage to estimate annual habitat. Fourth, we used for each lek within the Bi-State DPS to carry out a spatial analysis that quantified substantial changes in the distribution of occupied habitat across long- (24-year) and short- (11-year) term periods. Owing to differences among available datasets, the long-term analysis primarily reflected spatial shifts among subpopulations comprising the majority of the Bi-State DPS (that is, Bodie Hills and Long Valley) while the short-term analysis also quantified changes among subpopulations along the periphery. Over long and short-term periods, the overall distribution of occupied habitat (as measured by 99 percent utilization distributions intersecting any quantified habitat) was reduced by 20,573 ha and 55,492 ha, respectively. Occupied core areas (as measured by 50 percent utilization distributions intersecting any quantified habitat) over long-term periods were solely located in Bodie Hills and Long Valley. Although nearly all subpopulations experienced contractions in occupied overall and core distribution, Bodie Hills experienced spatial expansion that occurred with concomitant spatial contraction at Long Valley over both periods. Subpopulations at the northern (Pine Nuts), central (Sagehen) and southern (White-Mountains) extents of the Bi-State DPS also experienced spatial contraction over the short-term period. These findings, coupled with those of population trends, indicate long-term patterns in redistribution of sage-grouse from Long Valley and peripheral subpopulations to Bodie Hills. That is, sage-grouse subpopulations at the periphery are declining while the largest population at the core is increasing, which could have meaningful impacts on overall metapopulation persistence. We provide evidence for loss of occupied habitat (reduced distribution) given local extirpation of subpopulations. Fifth, we calculated percentages of selected phenological, life stage, and annual habitat that each subpopulation contributed to the Bi-State DPS. We then intersected these maps with a composite estimate of occupied habitat from the fourth objective and calculated percentages of selected habitat likely occupied by sage-grouse that each subpopulation contributed to the Bi-State DPS. These values provide evidence for loss of occupied habitat and subsequent reductions in spatial distribution given reductions in abundance and, in some cases, extirpation of leks within subpopulations. Lastly, we carried out an initial in-depth analysis of selection for irrigated pastures and wet meadows during the brood-rearing stage for the Long Valley subpopulation. We chose this subpopulation because it represents a population core, representing 26.5 percent of total sage-grouse within the Bi-State DPS, and has exhibited long-term declines in abundance and distribution. This subpopulation is highly sensitive to precipitation and other factors that influence water availability. Models predicted higher use of the interior portions of irrigated pastures and wet meadows during late brood-rearing period, which represented a potentially risky use of habitat that was exacerbated during periods of low moisture (for example, drought, reduced water delivery, or both). Sage-grouse typically used edges of riparian areas and pastures, largely because the interior of these mesic areas consisted of considerably less overhead concealment cover (for example, shrubs) that likely resulted in a higher risk of mortality. We found that a lack of water delivery to pastures in the form of overwinter precipitation or diversion ditches increased the movements of sage-grouse to the interior of pastures. Although further investigation of water delivery impacts on chick survival are warrented, our initial findings regarding resource selection may explain recent declines in population growth at Long Valley.

California, Nevada↗

USGS2014

Metals, organic compounds, and nutrients in Long Island Sound: sources, magnitudes, trends, and impacts

Long Island Sound (LIS) is a relatively shallow estuary with a mean depth of 20 m (maximum depth 49 m) and a unique hydrology and history of pollutant loading. Those factors have contributed to a wide variety of contamination problems in its muddy sediments, aquatic life and water column. The LIS sediments are contaminated with a host of legacy and more recently released toxic compounds and elements related to past and present wastewater discharges and runoff. These include non-point and storm water runoff and groundwater discharges, whose character has changed over the years along with the evolution of its watershed and industrial history. Major impacts have resulted from the copious amounts of nutrients discharged into LIS through atmospheric deposition (N), domestic and industrial waste water flows, fertilizer releases, and urban runoff. All these sources and their effects are in essence the result of human presence and activities in the watershed, and the severity of pollutant loading and their impacts generally scales with total population in the watersheds surrounding LIS. Environmental legislation passed since the mid-to late 1900s (e.g., Clean Air Act, Clean Water Act) has had a beneficial effect, however, and contaminant loadings for many toxic organic and inorganic chemicals and nutrients have diminished over the last few decades (O’Shea and Brosnan 2000; Trench, et al, 2012; O’Connor and Lauenstein 2006; USEPA 2007). Major strides have been made in reducing the inflow of nutrients into LIS, but cultural eutrophication is still an ongoing problem and nutrient control efforts will need to continue. Nonetheless, LIS is still a heavily human impacted estuary (an ‘Urban Estuary’, as described for San Francisco Bay by Conomos, 1979), and severe changes in water quality and sediment toxicity as well as ecosystem shifts have been witnessed over the relatively short period since European colonization in the early 1600s (Koppelman et al., 1976). The main rivers that discharge into LIS are the East River in the west, the Housatonic and Connecticut rivers on the north, and the Thames River at the northeastern end of LIS, with the Quinnipiac and several other smaller rivers also coming in from Connecticut. The East River is a tidal strait that connects LIS with New York Harbor through the heart of the New York City metropolitan region. The Housatonic, Quinnipiac, Connecticut and Thames river basins drain agricultural, urban and industrial lands in a watershed that extends from Connecticut north to Canada. The Sound receives contaminants from many sources within and outside its contributing watershed, including direct discharges from coastal industries, wastewater treatment plants (WWTP), urban runoff, and atmospheric deposition. New England has a long history of industrial activity, with factories that once crowded its riverbanks and shores now having succumbed to economic forces that drove manufacturing overseas. Relict deposits with legacy pollutants in upland sediments persist and combine with modern runoff sources from an increasingly densely populated watershed, and continue to be a source of contaminants for LIS. While toxic exposure from legacy and active sources has diminished over the years as wastewater treatment has improved and industries closed or moved away, pockets of contamination still have consequences for many embayments and coves, particularly near urbanized areas of western LIS. Loading of nutrients and carbon have been of recent concern in LIS because of the extensive impacts observed since the mid-1980s. Excess nutrients not only create inhospitable conditions for higher forms of aquatic life through reduced oxygen levels and disrupting trophic dynamics, but also by altering the local biogeochemistry. As a result, the release of toxic substances into the water column may be enhanced in hypoxic waters, thus exerting a toxic effect or enhancing incorporation of toxic pollutants into the food we

Book chapter↗

USGS2007

Ground-water recharge in the arid and semiarid southwestern United States

Ground-water recharge in the arid and semiarid southwestern United States results from the complex interplay of climate, geology, and vegetation across widely ranging spatial and temporal scales. Present-day recharge tends to be narrowly focused in time and space. Widespread water-table declines accompanied agricultural development during the twentieth century, demonstrating that sustainable ground-water supplies are not guaranteed when part of the extracted resource represents paleorecharge. Climatic controls on ground-water recharge range from seasonal cycles of summer monsoonal and winter frontal storms to multimillennial cycles of glacial and interglacial periods. Precipitation patterns reflect global-scale interactions among the oceans, atmosphere, and continents. Large-scale climatic influences associated with El Niño and Pacific Decadal Oscillations strongly, but irregularly, control weather in the study area, so that year-to-year variations in precipitation and ground-water recharge are large and difficult to predict. Proxy data indicate geologically recent periods of naturally occurring multidecadal droughts unlike any in the modern instrumental record. Any anthropogenically induced climate change will likely reduce ground-water recharge through diminished snowpack at higher elevations. Future changes in El Niño and monsoonal patterns, both crucial to precipitation in the study area, are highly uncertain in current models. Current land-use modifications influence ground-water recharge through vegetation, irrigation, and impermeable area. High mountain ranges bounding the study area—the San Bernadino Mountains and Sierra Nevada to the west, and the Wasatch and southern Colorado Rocky Mountains to the east—provide external geologic controls on ground-water recharge. Internal geologic controls stem from tectonic processes that led to numerous, variably connected alluvial-filled basins, exposure of extensive Paleozoic aquifers in mountainous recharge areas, and distinct modes of recharge in the Colorado Plateau and Basin and Range subregions. The chapters in this professional paper present (first) an overview of climatic and hydrogeologic framework (chapter A), followed by a regional analysis of ground-water recharge across the entire study area (chapter B). These are followed by an overview of site-specific case studies representing different subareas of the geographically diverse arid and semiarid southwestern United States (chapter C); the case studies themselves follow in chapters D–K. The regional analysis includes detailed hydrologic modeling within the framework of a high-resolution geographic-information system (GIS). Results from the regional analysis are used to explore both the distribution of ground-water recharge for mean climatic conditions as well as the influence of two climatic patterns—the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation—that impart a high degree of variability to the hydrologic cycle. Individual case studies employ a variety of geophysical and geochemical techniques to investigate recharge processes and relate the processes to local geologic and climatic conditions. All of the case studies made use of naturally occurring tracers to quantify recharge. Thermal and geophysical techniques that were developed in the course of the studies are presented in appendices. The quantification of ground-water recharge in arid settings is inherently difficult due to the generally low amount of recharge, its spatially and temporally spotty nature, and the absence of techniques for directly measuring fluxes entering the saturated zone from the unsaturated zone. Deep water tables in arid alluvial basins correspond to thick unsaturated zones that produce up to millennial time lags between changes in hydrologic conditions at the land surface and subsequent changes in recharge to underlying ground water. Recent advances in physical, chemical, isotopic, and modeling techniques have fostered new types of recharge assessments. Chemical and isotopic techniques include an increasing variety of environmental tracers that are useful and robust. Physically based techniques include the use of heat as a tracer and computationally intensive geophysical imaging tools for characterizing hydrologic conditions in the unsaturated zone. Modeling-based techniques include spatially distributed water-budget computations using high-resolution remotely sensed and ground-based geographic data. Application of these techniques to arid and semiarid settings in the southwestern United States reveals distinct patterns of recharge corresponding to geologic setting, climatic and vegetative history, and land use. Analysis of recharge patterns shows that large expanses of alluvial basin floors are drying out under current climatic conditions, with little to no recharge to underlying ground water. Ground-water recharge occurs mainly beneath upland catchments in which thin soils overlie permeable bedrock, ephemeral channels in which flow may average only several hours per year, and active agricultural areas. The chapters in this professional paper represent a coordinated attempt to develop a better understanding of one of the Nation's most critical yet difficult-to-quantify renewable resources.

Professional Paper↗

USGS2011

Land use and climate influences on waterbirds in the Prairie Potholes

Aim We examined the influences of regional climate and land‐use variables on mallard ( Anas platyrhynchos ), blue‐winged teal ( Anas discors ), ruddy duck ( Oxyura jamaicensis ) and pied‐billed grebe ( Podilymbus podiceps ) abundances to inform conservation planning in the Prairie Pothole Region of the United States. Location The US portion of Bird Conservation Region 11 (US‐BCR11, the Prairie Potholes), which encompasses six states within the United States: Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Minnesota and Iowa. Methods We used data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (NABBS), the National Land Cover Data Set, and the National Climatic Data Center to model the effects of environmental variables on waterbird abundance. We evaluated land‐use covariates at three logarithmically related spatial scales (1000, 10,000 and 100,000 ha), and constructed hierarchical spatial count models a priori using information from published habitat associations. Model fitting was performed using a hierarchical modelling approach within a Bayesian framework. Results Models with the same variables expressed at different scales were often in the best model subset, indicating that the influence of spatial scale was small. Both land‐use and climate variables contributed strongly to predicting waterbird abundance in US‐BCR11. The strongest positive influences on waterbird abundance were the percentage of wetland area across all three spatial scales, herbaceous vegetation and precipitation variables. Other variables that we included in our models did not appear to influence waterbirds in this study. Main conclusions Understanding the relationships of waterbird abundance to climate and land use may allow us to make predictions of future distribution and abundance as environmental factors change. Additionally, results from this study can suggest locations where conservation and management efforts should be focused.

Iowa, Minnesota, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, ↗

USGS2016

Proceedings of the 12th Biennial Conference of research on the Colorado Plateau

Introduction The Colorado Plateau is a physiographic region that encompasses 330,000 square kilometers in parts of four states in the southwestern United States (Colorado, Utah, New Mexico, and Arizona). Known for its high deserts, the Colorado Plateau also includes isolated mountains, high plateaus, and rugged canyons. Not only is the region topographically diverse, but geologically, biologically, and culturally diverse as well. The landscape is managed by Federal entities including the Bureau of Land Management, the National Park Service, and the U.S. Forest Service; Tribal nations including the Navajo Nation, Kaibab Paiute, Mountain Ute, Southern Ute, Hopi, Zuni, Hualapai, Havasupai, and White Mountain Apache Tribes; State land and wildlife management agencies; and privately owned holdings, creating complex interactions and management challenges. Population growth, increased tourism to Federal and State lands, and energy development have increased water demands and altered land-use patterns, and these changes have emerged as management challenges facing the people working and living in the region. Climate change, particularly the ongoing drought, has exacerbated the effects of population growth, land-use change, and other stressors such as invasive species. As managers seek solutions to the challenges facing the region’s natural and cultural resources, the Biennial Conference of Science and Management of the Colorado Plateau has become an important venue for exchanging information about emerging management concerns and recent scientific research. Each biennial conference has sought to promote discussion, information sharing, and productive communication among the managers, scientists, students, administrators, tribal representatives, and others who attend the conference with the goal of enhancing the use of the best available science to manage the region’s incomparable natural and cultural resources. The publication and dissemination of a conference proceedings series expands the reach of the conference beyond those people in attendance and creates a record on the research presented. The idea of producing a conference proceedings, and its subsequent publication, first occurred in 1993 following the first biennial conference in 1991. A published volume of contributed papers has followed each subsequent biennial conference, including this volume. The venue for publishing proceedings has changed over the years and has included the National Park Service, the Government Printing Office, the U.S. Geological Survey, and University of Arizona Press. Recently, van Riper and others (2015) published a compilation of the abstracts from the 11 previous conference proceedings. Collectively, the proceedings highlight approximately 25 years of natural- and cultural-resources research, promoting the integration of research with resource management across the Colorado Plateau. This volume is freely downloadable by the public, thereby further expanding the influence of this conference beyond the Colorado Plateau. The 12th Biennial Conference held in Flagstaff, Arizona, from September 16 to 19, 2013, covered a range of topics in the physical, biological, and socio-cultural sciences. The conference was organized and hosted by Northern Arizona University’s ( NAU) Merriam-Powell Center for Environmental Research, the Colorado Plateau Cooperative Ecosystem Studies Unit, and the U.S. Geological Survey Southwest Biological Science Center. Financial and in-kind support was provided by a wide range of organizations including the U.S. Forest Service, National Park Service, Bureau of Land Management, Grand Canyon Trust, Colorado Plateau Research Station, and various NAU entities. NAU sponsors include the Landscape Conservation Initiative, School of Forestry, School of Earth Science and Environmental Sustainability, Office of the Provost, and Office of the Vice President of Research. Contributors to these proceedings include researchers and managers from Federal, State, and Tribal governments, universities, private entities, and non-profit organizations. In this regard, this conference has wide-ranging support and participation among private and public entities involved in the science and management of natural resources on the Colorado Plateau.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah↗

USGS2015

Downscaling global land-use/land-cover projections for use in region-level state-and-transition simulation modeling

Global land-use/land-cover (LULC) change projections and historical datasets are typically available at coarse grid resolutions and are often incompatible with modeling applications at local to regional scales. The difficulty of downscaling and reapportioning global gridded LULC change projections to regional boundaries is a barrier to the use of these datasets in a state-and-transition simulation model (STSM) framework. Here we compare three downscaling techniques to transform gridded LULC transitions into spatial scales and thematic LULC classes appropriate for use in a regional STSM. For each downscaling approach, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) LULC projections, at the 0.5 × 0.5 cell resolution, were downscaled to seven Level III ecoregions in the Pacific Northwest, United States. RCP transition values at each cell were downscaled based on the proportional distribution between ecoregions of (1) cell area, (2) land-cover composition derived from remotely-sensed imagery, and (3) historic LULC transition values from a LULC history database. Resulting downscaled LULC transition values were aggregated according to their bounding ecoregion and “cross-walked” to relevant LULC classes. Ecoregion-level LULC transition values were applied in a STSM projecting LULC change between 2005 and 2100. While each downscaling methods had advantages and disadvantages, downscaling using the historical land-use history dataset consistently apportioned RCP LULC transitions in agreement with historical observations. Regardless of the downscaling method, some LULC projections remain improbable and require further investigation.

AIMS Environmental Science↗

USGS2020

A 450-year record of environmental change from Castle Lake, California (USA), inferred from diatoms and organic geochemistry

A 39-cm sediment core from Castle Lake, California (USA) spans the last ~ 450 years and was analyzed for diatoms and organic geochemistry (δ 15 N, δ 13 C, and C:N), with the goal of determining sensitivity to natural climate variation and twentieth century anthropogenic effects. Castle Lake is a subalpine, nitrogen-limited lake with ~ 5 months of annual ice cover. Human impacts include light recreational use, past fish stocking, and experimental use by the Castle Lake Research Station. The base of the core (below 32 cm; pre mid-1700s) represents the period of maximum ice cover. In contrast, the end of the Little Ice Age (mid 1700s–early 1800s) is dominated by cyclotelloids (mostly Discostella stelligera ), indicating significant open-water periods, a condition that persisted into the early 1900s. Cyclotelloids began to decline in the 1960s and were replaced by the Fragilaria tenera grp. (peak in 1970s), succeeded by Asterionella formosa (peak ~ 2010), and accompanied by a reduction in δ 15 N values and a decrease in C:N that may represent increased atmospheric nitrogen deposition. Another anthropogenic signal was discerned in the core and was interpreted to be the result of an ammonium nitrate fertilization experiment of the epilimnion that was conducted in 1980 and 1981. This signal was manifested in the core largely by a negative excursion in δ 15 N, possibly caused by fractionation during denitrification in surface sediment. A phytoplankton monitoring dataset collected by the Castle Lake Research Station from 1967 to 1984 corroborates the timing of increased araphid euplanktonic species in the 1970s, and increases in two benthic diatoms ( Staurosirella pinnata and Tabellaria fenestrata) , entrained in the phytoplankton tows during the experimentation years. Both ice cover and nitrogen addition appear to be strong drivers that affected the lake diatoms, although additional drivers, such as fish stocking and associated cascade effects need further exploration. These data will be helpful for interpreting longer core records from Castle Lake, should the opportunity arise, as well as cores from similar systems in the region.

California↗

USGS2011

Stratigraphy of the Younger Dryas Chronozone and paleoenvironmental implications: Central and Southern Great Plains

The Great Plains of the United States was the setting for some of the earliest research in North America into patterns and changes in the character of late Pleistocene environments and their effects on contemporary human populations. Many localities in the region have well-stratified records of terminal Pleistocene and early Holocene human (Paleoindian) activity and past environments. These have proven important in debates over the character of the Younger Dryas Chronozone (YDC; 11,000–10,000 14 C BP; 12,900–11,700 cal BP) in the continental interior. This paper reviews the lithostratigraphic record of the YDC on the Central and Southern Great Plains and summarizes paleobiological records (largely isotopic). The goal is to determine if there is any uniformity in the timing, character, direction and/or magnitude of changes in depositional environments or broader geomorphic systems before, during or after the YDC in order to address the question of the character of environments through this time. The stratigraphic records of the late Pleistocene to early Holocene transition, and in particular, the stratigraphic records of the YDC vary through time and space. The data clearly show that a host of geomorphic processes produced the terminal Pleistocene and early Holocene stratigraphic records of the Great Plains. Moreover, the YDC is not necessarily manifest as a distinct lithostratigraphic or biostratigraphic entity in these different types of deposits and soils. The various geomorphic systems of the Great Plains did not behave synchronously in response to any common climate driver. These stratigraphic records reflect local environmental conditions and probably a complex response to the reorganization of mid-latitude climates in the terminal Pleistocene and early Holocene.

Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, Okl↗

USGS2019

Late-Glacial paleoecology of the Middle Susitna Valley, Alaska: Environmental context for human dispersal

We present here the results of multi-proxy analyses (sediment geochemistry, diatoms, and pollen) from sediment cores collected at four lakes in the middle Susitna Valley, Alaska. These lakes form a transect from the tundra to the boreal forest. The retrieved cores span from ~12,000 cal yr BP to the present, with age control provided by radiometric dates and tephra deposits, some of which are newly identified. Results indicate that deglaciation occurred before 12,000 cal yr BP and that by that time, the lakes were deep, productive, and surrounded by shrub tundra. The lake with the highest sampling resolution indicates a brief climatic reversal ~11,500 cal yr BP with decreased diatom-inferred lake level and lowered lake productivity, and reduced shrub presence. During the early to middle Holocene, all of the sedimentary records provide evidence of climatic amelioration with tree expansion and productive lakes. A middle to late Holocene climatic deterioration with reduced trees and a shallower, less productive lake is also indicated. In addition, the prominent Watana tephra at ~4,000 cal yr BP likely reduced lake productivity and affected the vegetation. Even though the region was relatively productive soon after deglaciation, people did not occupy the region until ~11,000 cal yr BP, about 1000 years later, and then only sparsely. By the middle and late Holocene, the region was more densely populated and this shift in human occupancy presumably reflects changes in resource abundance, especially caribou. Whether the Watana ashfall influenced caribou abundance and thus people, is still under investigation, but given the tephra’s effect on vegetation and lake productivity, it seems likely.

Alaska↗

USGS2020

Rethinking groundwater flow on the South Rim of the Grand Canyon, USA: Characterizing recharge sources and flow paths with environmental tracers

In the arid landscape south of the Grand Canyon, natural springs and seeps are a critical resource for endemic species and Native American tribes. Groundwater is potentially threatened by expanding populations, visitations, and mineral extraction activities. Environmental tracers including noble gases, stable isotopes of hydrogen and oxygen in water, tritium, and carbon-14 were used to characterize recharge sources and flow paths in South Rim aquifers. Results confirm the regional Redwall-Muav Aquifer as the primary groundwater source to springs. However, a second local recharge source is required to explain the detection of tritium. Two probable sources are identified as: low-elevation infiltration of surface run-off with warm noble gas recharge temperatures, high excess air, and relatively low fractions of winter recharge, and high-elevation plateau recharge with cool recharge temperatures, low excess air, and fraction of winter recharge of ~ 1. Previous investigators have linked spring occurrence with regional faults and fractures. We show such features are also the likely control chemical mixing between the regional and local groundwater sources, the transport of deeply sourced and local recharge fluids, groundwater age, and thus the relative vulnerability of groundwater to depletion and contamination. The new conceptual model of groundwater sources and flow paths suggest many South Rim springs may respond on the order of 10s to 100s of years to groundwater depletion and contamination, even though the majority of groundwater flow is along longer flow paths with longer lag times. The magnitude of response to short term changes in the flow system remains unclear.

Arizona↗

USGS2022

Sensitivity of headwater streamflow to thawing permafrost and vegetation change in a warming Arctic

Climate change has the potential to impact headwater streams in the Arctic by thawing permafrost and subsequently altering hydrologic regimes and vegetation distribution, physiognomy and productivity. Permafrost thaw and increased subsurface flow have been inferred from the chemistry of large rivers, but there is limited empirical evidence of the impacts to headwater streams. Here we demonstrate how changing vegetation cover and soil thaw may alter headwater catchment hydrology using water budgets, stream discharge trends, and chemistry across a gradient of ground temperature in northwestern Alaska. Colder, tundra-dominated catchments shed precipitation through stream discharge, whereas in warmer catchments with greater forest extent, evapotranspiration and infiltration are substantial fluxes. Forest soils thaw earlier, remain thawed longer, and display seasonal water content declines, consistent with greater evapotranspiration and infiltration. Streambed infiltration and water chemistry indicate that even minor warming can lead to increased infiltration and subsurface flow. Additional warming, permafrost loss, and vegetation shifts in the Arctic will deliver water back to the atmosphere and to subsurface aquifers in many regions, with the potential to substantially reduce discharge in headwater streams, if not compensated by increasing precipitation. Decreasing discharge in headwater streamflow will have important implications for aquatic and riparian ecosystems.

Alaska↗

USGS2023

Invasive Brook Stickleback Culaea inconstans minimally alters the trophic ecology of four native fishes in Wyoming, USA

Invasive species introductions are a primary threat facing populations of native freshwater fishes. There are multiple mechanisms by which an invader can affect native species, with competition for food resources being one mechanism that can lead to declines in the distribution and abundance of native species. Invaders that are trophic generalists may cause shifts in the trophic ecology of native species and may be better suited for long-term persistence amid environmental stochasticity. Therefore, trophic studies can provide valuable information on the risk an invader poses to native species. Brook Stickleback Culaea inconstans is an invasive fish species in Wyoming whose effect on native fish assemblages is poorly understood. Our goal was to understand the potential for competitive interactions between Brook Stickleback and native fishes. We used stable isotopes of carbon (ẟ 13 C) and nitrogen (ẟ 15 N) to evaluate the feeding ecology of Brook Stickleback relative to four native fishes, and to explore whether native fish isotopic niches changed in sympatry with Brook Stickleback. We hypothesized that the isotopic niche of Brook Stickleback would be larger than that of native fishes, suggesting broader resource use. Additionally, we hypothesized that the isotopic niche of native fish populations sympatric with Brook Stickleback would contract. We did not find support for our hypotheses as the isotopic niche of Brook Stickleback was not substantially different from that of native fishes. Further, the isotopic niche of native fishes was not substantially affected by Brook Stickleback presence. As a result, we do not currently see evidence of Brook Stickleback altering the trophic ecology of native fish species. Our results provide insight to the effects of a small-bodied invasive fish species on native fishes in a previously unstudied region, and can help managers prioritize management actions to conserve native fishes.

Wyoming↗