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USGS2003

The health of glaciers: Recent changes in glacier regime

Glacier wastage has been pervasive during the last century; small glaciers and those in marginal environments are disappearing, large mid-latitude glaciers are shrinking slightly, and arctic glaciers are warming. Net mass balances during the last 40 years are predominately negative and both winter and summer balances (accumulation and ablation) and mass turnover are increasing, especially after 1988. Two principal components of winter balance time-series explain about 50% of the variability in the data. Glacier winter balances in north and central Europe correlate with the Arctic Oscillation, and glaciers in western North America correlate with the Southern Oscillation and Northern Hemisphere air temperature. The degree of synchronization for distant glaciers relates to changes in time of atmospheric circulation patterns as well as differing dynamic responses.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2006

Shrinking ponds in subarctic Alaska based on 1950-2002 remotely sensed images

Over the past 50 years, Alaska has experienced a warming climate with longer growing seasons, increased potential evapotranspiration, and permafrost warming. Research from the Seward Peninsula and Kenai Peninsula has demonstrated a substantial landscape-level trend in the reduction of surface water and number of closed-basin ponds. We investigated whether this drying trend occurred at nine other regions throughout Alaska. One study region was from the Arctic Coastal Plain where depp permafrost occurs continuously across the landscape. The other eight study regions were from the boreal forest regions where discontinuous permafrost occurs. Mean annual precipitation across the study regions ranged from 100 to over 700 min yr-1. We used remotely sensed imagery from the 1950s to 2002 to inventory over 10,000 closed-basin ponds from at least three periods from this time span. We found a reduction in the area and number of shallow, closed-basin ponds for all boreal regions. In contrast, the Arctic Coastal Plain region had negligible change in the area of closed-basin ponds. Since the 1950s, surface water area of closed-basin ponds included in this analysis decreased by 31 to 4 percent, and the total number of closed-basin ponds surveyed within each study region decreased from 54 to 5 percent. There was a significant increasing trend in annual mean temperature and potential evapotranspiration since the 1950s for all study regions. There was no significant trend in annual precipitation during the same period. The regional trend of shrinking ponds may be due to increased drainage as permafrost warms, or increased evapotranspiration during a warmer and extended growing season. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research G: Biogeosciences↗

USGS2020

A comparison of the CMIP6 midHolocene and lig127k simulations in CESM2

Results are presented and compared for the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) simulations of the middle Holocene (MH, 6 ka) and Last Interglacial (LIG, 127 ka). These simulations are designated as Tier 1 experiments ( midHolocene and lig127k ) for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) and the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project phase 4 (PMIP4). They use the low-top, standard 1° version of CESM2 contributing to CMIP6 DECK, historical, and future projection simulations, and to other modeling intercomparison projects. The midHolocene and lig127k provide the opportunity to examine the responses in CESM2 to the orbitally induced changes in the seasonal and latitudinal distribution of insolation. The insolation anomalies result in summer warming over the Northern Hemisphere continents, reduced Arctic summer minimum sea ice, and increased areal extent of the North African monsoon. The Arctic remains warm throughout the year. These changes are greater in the lig127k than midHolocene simulation. Other notable changes are reduction of the Niño3.4 variability and Drake Passage transport and a small increase in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation from the piControl to midHolocene to lig127k simulation. Comparisons to paleo-data and to simulations from previous model versions are discussed. Possible reasons for mismatches with the paleo-observations are proposed, including missing processes in CESM2, simplifications in the CMIP6 protocols for these experiments, and dating and calibration uncertainties in the data reconstructions.

Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology↗

USGS2021

Storm-scale and seasonal dynamics of carbon export from a nested subarctic watershed underlain by permafrost

Subarctic catchments underlain by permafrost sequester a major stock of frozen organic carbon (C), which may be mobilized as the Arctic warms. Warming can impact C export from thawing soils by altering the depth and timing of runoff related to changing storm and fire regimes and altered soil thaw depths. We investigated C export in a first order headwater stream (West Twin Creek) and its receiving third order river (Beaver Creek) in interior Alaska using discrete sampling of dissolved organic and inorganic C (DOC and DIC) and 15-min collection of specific conductance (SC), fluorescent dissolved organic matter (fDOM) and water discharge (Q). Storm SC-Q relationships displayed negative slopes, indicating solute limitation and limited influence of seasonal soil thaw on storm runoff chemistry. Concurrently, fDOM-Q displayed positive slopes that decreased over the summer, indicating flushing of a limited fDOM pool. Baseflow DIC increased over the season concurrent with soil thaw, with higher DIC at the larger scale indicating greater influence of deeper, mineral-rich flow paths. Storm and seasonal trends were generally similar at both scales. The biggest difference was in fDOM, which displayed higher concentrations and slower depletion in the first order stream. Improved process understanding from this study can be used to better predict carbon export and cycling by stream networks as northern forests and arctic regions continue to warm.

Alaska↗

USGS2025

A wavier polar jet stream contributed to the mid-20th century winter warming hole in the United States

Winter waves in the polar jet stream are associated with extreme cold outbreaks and can modulate longer-term winter temperature trends in the mid-latitudes. Recent research has highlighted a positive trend in jet stream waviness from 1990 to 2010, with a hypothesized connection to Arctic amplification of anthropogenic warming. However, an increase in jet stream waviness has also been hypothesized to contribute to the winter “warming hole” (WH) in eastern North America, a cooling phenomenon from 1958–1988, beginning several decades prior to the recent waviness trend. These potentially conflicting hypotheses highlight the uncertainty of long-term jet stream waviness variability prior to the satellite era (1979–present). Here we develop a new record of wintertime jet stream waviness spanning 1901–2023 based on self-organizing maps and nine different temperature and reanalysis data sets with the dual purpose of (a) understanding the historical variability of polar jet stream waviness in the eastern United States, and (b) quantifying the impact of jet stream waviness on WH-era surface temperatures. Our analysis reveals elevated jet stream waviness in the 1960s–1980s that surpassed modern waviness levels, and we find that jet stream waviness contributed to two-thirds of winter WH cooling beginning in 1958. These results are consistent with a strong connection between temperature trends in the eastern U.S. and jet stream troughing but indicate that additional mechanisms also contributed to the WH. Our analysis further highlights that recent increases in jet stream waviness are well within the range of early to mid-20th century variability, prior to the emergence of Arctic amplification.

AGU Advances↗

USGS2012

Atmospheric organochlorine pollutants and air-sea exchange of hexachlorocyclohexane in the Bering and Chukchi Seas

Organochlorine pesticides have been found in Arctic fish, marine mammals, birds, and plankton for some time. The lack of local sources and remoteness of the region imply long-range transport and deposition of contaminants into the Arctic from sources to the south. While on the third Soviet-American Joint Ecological Expedition to the Bering and Chukchi Seas (August 1988), high-volume air samples were taken and analyzed for organochlorine pesticides. Hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH), hexachlorobenzene, polychlorinated camphenes, and chlordane (listed in order of abundance, highest to lowest) were quantified. The air-sea gas exchange of HCH was estimated at 18 stations during the cruise. Average alpha-HCH concentrations in concurrent atmosphere and surface water samples were 250 pg m-3 and 2.4 ng L-1, respectively, and average gamma-HCH concentrations were 68 pg m-3 in the atmosphere and 0.6 ng L-1 in surface water. Calculations based on experimentally derived Henry's law constants showed that the surface water was undersaturated with respect to the atmosphere at most stations (alpha-HCH, average 79% saturation; gamma-HCH, average 28% saturation). The flux for alpha-HCH ranged from -47 ng m-2 day-1 (sea to air) to 122 ng m-2 d-1 (air to sea) and averaged 25 ng m-2 d-1 air to sea. All fluxes of gamma-HCH were from air to sea, ranged from 17 to 54 ng m-2 d-1, and averaged 31 ng m-2 d-1.

Journal of Geophysical Research↗

USGS1997

Stratigraphic and structural implications of conodont and detrital zircon U-Pb ages from metamorphic rocks of the Coldfoot terrane, Brooks Range, Alaska

New paleontologic and isotopic data from the Emma Creek and Marion Creek schists of the Coldfoot terrane, Arctic Alaska superterrane, central Brooks Range, suggest Devonian and possibly younger ages of deposition for their sedimentary protoliths. Conodonts from marble of the Emma Creek schist, intruded by a roughly 392 Ma orthogneiss, are late Lochkovian (early Early Devonian, between about 408 and 396 Ma) and Silurian to Devonian at two other locations. Spherical to oblong detrital zircons from quartz-mica schist of the overlying Marion Creek schist yield mostly discordant U—Pb data suggestive of provenance ages of 3.0, 2.0–1.8, and 1.5–1.4 Ga; however, several euhedral grains of zircon from Marion Creek quartz-mica schist have concordant U—Pb ages from 370 to 360 Ma. The Marion Creek schist in our study area therefore is at least 26 m.y. younger than the Emma Creek schist. The age data imply that the protolith of the Emma Creek schist is age correlative with Devonian carbonate rocks in the Hammond and North Slope terranes, whereas the Marion Creek schist is age correlative with Upper Devonian and Lower Mississippian clastic sedimentary rocks of the Endicott Group in the Endicott Mountains terrane and shale and carbonate units in the De Long Mountains and Sheenjek River terranes. Consequently, tectonic models restoring the entire Coldfoot terrane beneath partly or wholly coeval rocks of the Hammond, Endicott Mountains, De Long Mountains, and Sheenjek River terranes of the Arctic Alaska superterrane require revision. Alternative reconstructions, including restoration of the Coldfoot terrane inboard of the Endicott Mountains terrane or outboard of the De Long Mountains and Sheenjek River terranes are plausible but require either larger amounts of shortening than previously suggested or indicate problematic facies relations.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2012

Permafrost, heat flow, and the geothermal regime at Prudhoe Bay, Alaska

Temperature measurements through permafrost in the oil field at Prudhoe Bay, Alaska, combined with laboratory measurements of the thermal conductivity of drill cuttings permit an evaluation of in situ thermal properties and an understanding of the general factors that control the geothermal regime. A sharp contrast in temperature gradient at ∼600 m represents a contrast in thermal conductivity caused by the downward change from interstitial ice to interstitial water at the base of permafrost under near steady state conditions. Interpretation of the gradient contrast in terms of a simple model for the conductivity of an aggregate yields the mean ice content (∼39%), and thermal conductivities for the frozen and thawed sections (8.1 and 4.7 mcal/cm s °C, respectively). These results yield a heat flow of ∼1.3 HFU, which is similar to other values on the Alaskan Arctic Coast; the anomalously deep permafrost is a result of the anomalously high conductivity of the siliceous ice-rich sediments. Curvature in the upper 160 m of the temperature profiles represents a warming of ∼1.8°C of the mean surface temperature and a net accumulation of 5–6 kcal/cm 2 by the solid earth surface during the last 100 years or so. Rising sea level and thawing of ice-rich sea cliffs probably caused the shoreline to retreat tens of kilometers in the last 20,000 years, inundating a portion of the continental shelf that is presently the target of intensive oil exploration. A simple conduction model suggests that this recently inundated region is underlain by near-melting ice-rich permafrost to depths of 300–500 m; its presence is important to seismic interpretations in oil exploration and to engineering considerations in oil production. With confirmation of the permafrost configuration by offshore drilling, heat conduction models can yield reliable new information on the chronology of arctic shorelines.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗

USGS2015

Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback

Large quantities of organic carbon are stored in frozen soils (permafrost) within Arctic and sub-Arctic regions. A warming climate can induce environmental changes that accelerate the microbial breakdown of organic carbon and the release of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane. This feedback can accelerate climate change, but the magnitude and timing of greenhouse gas emission from these regions and their impact on climate change remain uncertain. Here we find that current evidence suggests a gradual and prolonged release of greenhouse gas emissions in a warming climate and present a research strategy with which to target poorly understood aspects of permafrost carbon dynamics.

Nature↗

USGS2013

Future distribution of tundra refugia in northern Alaska

Climate change in the Arctic is a growing concern for natural resource conservation and management as a result of accelerated warming and associated shifts in the distribution and abundance of northern species. We introduce a predictive framework for assessing the future extent of Arctic tundra and boreal biomes in northern Alaska. We use geo-referenced museum specimens to predict the velocity of distributional change into the next century and compare predicted tundra refugial areas with current land-use. The reliability of predicted distributions, including differences between fundamental and realized niches, for two groups of species is strengthened by fossils and genetic signatures of demographic shifts. Evolutionary responses to environmental change through the late Quaternary are generally consistent with past distribution models. Predicted future refugia overlap managed areas and indicate potential hotspots for tundra diversity. To effectively assess future refugia, variable responses among closely related species to climate change warrants careful consideration of both evolutionary and ecological histories.

Alaska↗

USGS2026

Shifting winter atmospheric teleconnections to the North Pacific reconcile Younger-Dryas and Holocene δ18O signals

Using Alaskan lake sediment oxygen isotope records (δ 18 O), which trace the δ 18 O of precipitation, we establish that abrupt atmospheric shifts occurred during the last deglacial period in the North Pacific-Arctic. The robust lake δ 18 O chronologies confidently correlate Younger-Dryas (YD) atmospheric adjustments in Alaska with Greenland ice-core records and their seasonal sensitivity are consistent with cooling during winter. In contrast, abrupt δ 18 O decreases during the late Holocene observed in our records, of similar magnitude as the YD, are best explained by atmospheric modes involving long-distance transport of sub-tropical Pacific moisture. Our sediment cores are among the most reliably dated records yet produced in the circum-Arctic and show that similar decreases in δ 18 O of winter precipitation during the YD and late Holocene were driven by different atmospheric teleconnections. These results underscore major roles for seasonality and atmospheric patterns in the conceptual understanding of global scale climate oscillations, both past and future.

Alaska↗

USGS2021

Diet-driven mercury contamination is associated with polar bear gut microbiota

The gut microbiota may modulate the disposition and toxicity of environmental contaminants within a host but, conversely, contaminants may also impact gut bacteria. Such contaminant-gut microbial connections, which could lead to alteration of host health, remain poorly known and are rarely studied in free-ranging wildlife. The polar bear ( Ursus maritimus ) is a long-lived, wide-ranging apex predator that feeds on a variety of high trophic position seal and cetacean species and, as such, is exposed to among the highest levels of biomagnifying contaminants of all Arctic species. Here, we investigate associations between mercury (THg; a key Arctic contaminant), diet, and the diversity and composition of the gut microbiota of polar bears inhabiting the southern Beaufort Sea, while accounting for host sex, age class and body condition. Bacterial diversity was negatively associated with seal consumption and mercury, a pattern seen for both Shannon and Inverse Simpson alpha diversity indices (adjusted R 2 = 0.35, F 1,18 = 8.00, P = 0.013 and adjusted R 2 = 0.26, F 1,18 = 6.04, P = 0.027, respectively). No association was found with sex, age class or body condition of polar bears. Bacteria known to either be involved in THg methylation or considered to be highly contaminant resistant, including Lactobacillales, Bacillales and Aeromonadales, were significantly more abundant in individuals that had higher THg concentrations. Conversely, individuals with higher THg concentrations showed a significantly lower abundance of Bacteroidales, a bacterial order that typically plays an important role in supporting host immune function by stimulating intraepithelial lymphocytes within the epithelial barrier. These associations between diet-acquired mercury and microbiota illustrate a potentially overlooked outcome of mercury accumulation in polar bears.

Scientific Reports↗

USGS2024

Wind-wave climate changes and their impacts

Wind-waves have an important role in Earth system dynamics through air–sea interactions and are key drivers of coastal and offshore hydro-morphodynamics that affect communities, ecosystems, infrastructure and operations. In this Review, we outline historical and projected changes in the wind-wave climate over the world’s oceans, and their impacts. Historical trend analysis is challenging owing to the presence of temporal inhomogeneities from increased numbers and types of assimilated data. Nevertheless, there is general agreement over a consistent historical increase in mean wave height of 1–3 cm yr −1 in the Southern and Arctic Oceans, with extremes increasing by >10 cm yr −1 for the latter. By 2100, mean wave height is projected to rise by 5–10% in the Southern Ocean and eastern tropical South Pacific, and by >100% in the Arctic Ocean. By contrast, reductions in mean wave height up to 10% are expected in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, with regional variability and uncertainty for changes in extremes. Differences between 1.5 °C and warmer worlds reveal the potential benefit of limiting anthropogenic warming. Resolving global-scale climate change impacts on coastal processes and atmospheric–ocean–wave interactions requires a step-up in observational and modeling capabilities, including enhanced spatiotemporal resolution and coverage of observations, more homogeneous data products, multidisciplinary model improvement, and better sampling of uncertainty with larger ensembles.

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment↗

USGS2026

Mercury mobilization and export from the Greenland Ice Sheet using an ice-to-ocean approach

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is a poorly constrained source of mercury (Hg) to Arctic ecosystems. We measured Hg concentrations and stable isotopes along an ice-to-ocean continuum to identify controls on GrIS Hg export. Early-season permafrost melt and rainfall produced high filtered total mercury (fTHg, ~17 pM) and monomethylmercury (MMHg, ~2 pM). As subglacial drainage evolved, particulate Hg doubled (from ~8 to 17 pM) and MMHg production remained elevated, indicating Hg mobilization from subglacial environments. Shifts in Hg stable isotope ratios and Δ 199 Hg mass balance show supraglacial sources contribute 20–48% of exported Hg, suggesting subglacial inputs dominate the seasonal Hg flux. Fjord waters were enriched in fTHg ( ~ 10 pM) and MMHg ( ~ 2 pM) relative to rivers, consistent with particulate Hg transformations and terrestrial Hg inputs. The estimated GrIS Hg yield ( ~ 23 mmol km −2 yr −1 ) is similar to that of Arctic rivers and will likely increase with climate-driven mass loss.

Communications Earth & Environment↗

USGS2006

Persistent organic pollutants in Alaskan ringed seal ( Phoca hispida ) and walrus ( Odobenus rosmarus ) blubber

Since 1987, the Alaska Marine Mammal Tissue Archival Project (AMMTAP) has collected tissues from 18 marine mammal species. Specimens are archived in the National Institute of Standards and Technology's National Biomonitoring Specimen Bank (NIST-NBSB). AMMTAP has collected blubber, liver and/or kidney specimens from a number of ringed seals ( Phoca hispida ) from the areas near Nome and Barrow, Alaska and walruses ( Odobenus rosmarus ) from several locations in the Bering Sea. Thirty-three ringed seal and 15 walrus blubber samples from the NIST-NBSB were analyzed for persistent organic pollutants (POPs). The compounds determined included PCBs (28 congeners or congener groups), DDT and related compounds, hexachlorobenzene (HCB), hexachlorocyclohexane isomers (HCHs), chlordanes, dieldrin, and mirex. POP concentrations in ringed seal blubber were significantly higher in Barrow than in Nome when statistically accounting for the interaction of age and gender; HCB, however, was not statistically different between the two locations. Unlike males, POP concentrations and age were not significantly correlated in females probably as a result of lactational loss. POP concentrations in walrus blubber were lower than in ringed seal blubber for ΣPCBs, chlordanes, and HCHs, but higher for dieldrin and mirex. POP concentrations in ringed seals and walrus from Alaska provide further evidence that the western Arctic tends to have lower or similar POP concentrations compared to the eastern Canadian Arctic.

Alaska↗

USGS2002

Vegetation and climate controls on potential CO2, DOC and DON production in northern latitude soils

Climatic change may influence decomposition dynamics in arctic and boreal ecosystems, affecting both atmospheric CO2 levels, and the flux of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) to aquatic systems. In this study, we investigated landscape-scale controls on potential production of these compounds using a one-year laboratory incubation at two temperatures (10?? and 30??C). We measured the release of CO2, DOC and DON from tundra soils collected from a variety of vegetation types and climatic regimes: tussock tundra at four sites along a latitudinal gradient from the interior to the north slope of Alaska, and soils from additional vegetation types at two of those sites (upland spruce at Fairbanks, and wet sedge and shrub tundra at Toolik Lake in northern Alaska). Vegetation type strongly influenced carbon fluxes. The highest CO2 and DOC release at the high incubation temperature occurred in the soils of shrub tundra communities. Tussock tundra soils exhibited the next highest DOC fluxes followed by spruce and wet sedge tundra soils, respectively. Of the fluxes, CO2 showed the greatest sensitivity to incubation temperatures and vegetation type, followed by DOC. DON fluxes were less variable. Total CO2 and total DOC release were positively correlated, with DOC fluxes approximately 10% of total CO2 fluxes. The ratio of CO2 production to DOC release varied significantly across vegetation types with Tussock soils producing an average of four times as much CO2 per unit DOC released compared to Spruce soils from the Fairbanks site. Sites in this study released 80-370 mg CO2-C g soil C-1 and 5-46 mg DOC g soil C-1 at high temperatures. The magnitude of these fluxes indicates that arctic carbon pools contain a large proportion of labile carbon that could be easily decomposed given optimal conditions. The size of this labile pool ranged between 9 and 41% of soil carbon on a g soil C basis, with most variation related to vegetation type rather than climate.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2012

Mineralization, watershed geochemistry, and metals in fish from a Subarctic River, Alaska

We report on the levels of trace metals and metalloids in Arctic grayling (Thymallus arcticus), an important freshwater sport and subsistence fish in the Fortymile River, east-central Alaska. Functional biogeochemical baseline values and (or) ranges are presented for 38 major- and trace-elements in the muscle (fillet) and liver of 34 fish collected from 11 sampling sites in the watershed. In addition, we present N-, C-, and S-isotopic data for muscle samples. These data are the first to be reported for Arctic grayling in this region of Alaska. Geometric means for total Hg in muscle and liver tissue are 0.069 and 0.062 ppm, respectively. These levels are more than an order of magnitude below the FDA permissible value for methylmercury in fish fillets. In general, we noted little variation in the elemental concentrations in muscle tissue among samples at each of the 11 fish-sampling sites. No definitive link could be attributed between biogeochemical patterns and regional lithology. Stomach-content chemistry varied widely (relative muscle tissue or liver) and generally reflected sediment chemistry - a component of the ingested material. Stomach-content material was examined for the occurrence and frequency of macroinvertebrates and their chemical composition in three fish. Results showed considerable diversity, with 9 to 15 invertebrate taxa of which both aquatic and terrestrial individuals were found. The N-isotopic compositions of muscle fillet samples are homogeneous (??15N = 7.6 - 9.7 permil), reflecting a restricted, low trophic (primary predator) position for the grayling. C and S isotopic compositions (??13C and ??34S) of fillet samples range from -33.1 to -25.8 permil and -8.4 to 8.2 permil, respectively, suggesting heterogeneity of food sources (both aquatic and terrestrial). Copyright ASCE 2005.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2012

Polar and brown bear genomes reveal ancient admixture and demographic footprints of past climate change

Polar bears (PBs) are superbly adapted to the extreme Arctic environment and have become emblematic of the threat to biodiversity from global climate change. Their divergence from the lower-latitude brown bear provides a textbook example of rapid evolution of distinct phenotypes. However, limited mitochondrial and nuclear DNA evidence conflicts in the timing of PB origin as well as placement of the species within versus sister to the brown bear lineage. We gathered extensive genomic sequence data from contemporary polar, brown, and American black bear samples, in addition to a 130,000- to 110,000-y old PB, to examine this problem from a genome-wide perspective. Nuclear DNA markers reflect a species tree consistent with expectation, showing polar and brown bears to be sister species. However, for the enigmatic brown bears native to Alaska's Alexander Archipelago, we estimate that not only their mitochondrial genome, but also 5–10% of their nuclear genome, is most closely related to PBs, indicating ancient admixture between the two species. Explicit admixture analyses are consistent with ancient splits among PBs, brown bears and black bears that were later followed by occasional admixture. We also provide paleodemographic estimates that suggest bear evolution has tracked key climate events, and that PB in particular experienced a prolonged and dramatic decline in its effective population size during the last ca. 500,000 years. We demonstrate that brown bears and PBs have had sufficiently independent evolutionary histories over the last 4–5 million years to leave imprints in the PB nuclear genome that likely are associated with ecological adaptation to the Arctic environment.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences↗