A wavier polar jet stream contributed to the mid-20th century winter warming hole in the United States

Abstract

Winter waves in the polar jet stream are associated with extreme cold outbreaks and can modulate longer-term winter temperature trends in the mid-latitudes. Recent research has highlighted a positive trend in jet stream waviness from 1990 to 2010, with a hypothesized connection to Arctic amplification of anthropogenic warming. However, an increase in jet stream waviness has also been hypothesized to contribute to the winter “warming hole” (WH) in eastern North America, a cooling phenomenon from 1958–1988, beginning several decades prior to the recent waviness trend. These potentially conflicting hypotheses highlight the uncertainty of long-term jet stream waviness variability prior to the satellite era (1979–present). Here we develop a new record of wintertime jet stream waviness spanning 1901–2023 based on self-organizing maps and nine different temperature and reanalysis data sets with the dual purpose of (a) understanding the historical variability of polar jet stream waviness in the eastern United States, and (b) quantifying the impact of jet stream waviness on WH-era surface temperatures. Our analysis reveals elevated jet stream waviness in the 1960s–1980s that surpassed modern waviness levels, and we find that jet stream waviness contributed to two-thirds of winter WH cooling beginning in 1958. These results are consistent with a strong connection between temperature trends in the eastern U.S. and jet stream troughing but indicate that additional mechanisms also contributed to the WH. Our analysis further highlights that recent increases in jet stream waviness are well within the range of early to mid-20th century variability, prior to the emergence of Arctic amplification.