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USGS2021

Quantifying thresholds of barrier geomorphic change in a cross-shore sediment-partitioning model

Barrier coasts, including barrier islands, beach-ridge plains, and associated landforms, can assume a broad spectrum of morphologies over multi-decadal scales that reflect conditions of sediment availability, accommodation, and relative sea-level rise. However, the quantitative thresholds of these controls on barrier-system behavior remain largely unexplored, even as modern sea-level rise and anthropogenic modification of sediment availability increasingly reshape the world's sandy coastlines. In this study, we conceptualize barrier coasts as sediment-partitioning frameworks, distributing sand delivered from the shoreface to the subaqueous and subaerial components of the coastal system. Using an idealized morphodynamic model, we explore thresholds of behavioral and morphologic change over decadal to centennial timescales, simulating barrier evolution within quasi-stratigraphic morphological cross sections. Our results indicate a wide diversity of barrier behaviors can be explained by the balance of fluxes delivered to the beach vs. the dune or backbarrier, including previously understudied forms of transgression that allow the subaerial system to continue accumulating sediment during landward migration. Most importantly, our results show that barrier state transitions between progradation, cross-shore amalgamation, aggradation, and transgression are controlled largely through balances within a narrow range of relative sea-level rise and sediment flux. This suggests that, in the face of rising sea levels, subtle changes in sediment fluxes could result in significant changes in barrier morphology. We also demonstrate that modeled barriers with reduced vertical sediment accommodation are highly sensitive to the magnitude and direction of shoreface fluxes. Therefore, natural barriers with limited sediment accommodation could allow for exploration of the future effects of sea-level rise and changing flux magnitudes over a period of years as opposed to the decades required for similar responses in sediment-rich barrier systems. Finally, because our model creates stratigraphy generated under different input parameters, we propose that it could be used in combination with stratigraphic data to hindcast the sensitivity of existing barriers and infer changes in prehistoric morphology, which we anticipate will provide a baseline to assess the reliability of forward modeling predictions.

Earth Surface Dynamics↗

USGS2012

Predicting sea-level rise vulnerability of terrestrial habitat and wildlife of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands

If current climate change trends continue, rising sea levels may inundate low-lying islands across the globe, placing island biodiversity at risk. Recent models predict a rise of approximately one meter (1 m) in global sea level by 2100, with larger increases possible in areas of the Pacific Ocean. Pacific Islands are unique ecosystems home to many endangered endemic plant and animal species. The Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (NWHI), which extend 1,930 kilometers (km) beyond the main Hawaiian Islands, are a World Heritage Site and part of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument. These NWHI support the largest tropical seabird rookery in the world, providing breeding habitat for 21 species of seabirds, 4 endemic land bird species and essential foraging, breeding, or haul-out habitat for other resident and migratory wildlife. In recent years, concern has grown about the increasing vulnerability of the NWHI and their wildlife populations to changing climatic patterns, particularly the uncertainty associated with potential impacts from global sea-level rise (SLR) and storms. In response to the need by managers to adapt future resource protection strategies to climate change variability and dynamic island ecosystems, we have synthesized and down scaled analyses for this important region. This report describes a 2-year study of a remote northwestern Pacific atoll ecosystem and identifies wildlife and habitat vulnerable to rising sea levels and changing climate conditions. A lack of high-resolution topographic data for low-lying islands of the NWHI had previously precluded an extensive quantitative model of the potential impacts of SLR on wildlife habitat. The first chapter (chapter 1) describes the vegetation and topography of 20 islands of Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument, the distribution and status of wildlife populations, and the predicted impacts for a range of SLR scenarios. Furthermore, this chapter explores the potential effects of SLR on wildlife breeding habitats for each island. The subsequent chapter (chapter 2) details a study of the Laysan Island ecosystem, describing a quantitative model that incorporates SLR, storm wave, and rising groundwater inundation. Wildlife, storm, and oceanographic data allowed for an assessment of the phenological and spatial vulnerability of Laysan Island's breeding bird species to SLR and storms. Using remote sensing and geospatial techniques, we estimated topography, classified vegetation, modeled SLR, and evaluated a range of climate change scenarios. On the basis of high-resolution airborne data collected during 2010-11 (root-mean-squared error = 0.05-0.18 m), we estimated the maximum elevation of 20 individual islands extending from Kure Atoll to French Frigate Shoals (range: 1.8-39.7 m) and computed the mean elevation (1.7 m, standard deviation 1.1 m) across all low-lying islands. We also analyzed general climate models to describe rainfall and temperature scenarios expected to influence adaptation of some plants and animals for this region. Outcomes for the NWHI predicted an increase in temperature of 1.8-2.6 degrees Celsius (°C) and an annual decrease in precipitation of 24.7-76.3 millimeters (mm) across the NWHI by 2100. Our models of passive SLR (excluding wave-driven effects, erosion, and accretion) showed that approximately 4 percent of the total land area in the NWHI will be lost with scenarios of +1.0 m of SLR and 26 percent will be lost with +2.0 m of SLR. Some atolls are especially vulnerable to SLR. For example, at Pearl and Hermes Atoll our analysis indicated substantial habitat losses with 43 percent of the land area inundated at +1.0 m SLR and 92 percent inundated at +2.0 m SLR. Across the NWHI, seven islands will be completely submerged with +2.0 m SLR. The limited global ranges of some tropical nesting birds make them particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts in the NWHI. Climate change scenarios and potential SLR impacts presented here emphasize the need for early climate change adaptation and mitigation planning, especially for species with limited breeding distributions and/or ranges restricted primarily to the low-lying NWHI: Cyperus pennatiformis var. bryanii , Black-footed Albatross ( Phoebastria nigripes ), Laysan Albatross ( P. immutabilis ), Bonin Petrel ( Pterodroma hypoleuca ), Gray-backed Tern ( Onychoprion lunatus ), Laysan Teal ( Anas laysanensis ), Laysan Finch ( Telespiza cantans ), and Hawaiian monk seal ( Monachus schauinslandi ). Furthermore, SLR scenarios that include the effects of wave dynamics and groundwater rise may indicate amplified vulnerability to climate change driven habitat loss on low-lying islands. In chapter 2, we incorporated the combined effects of SLR, dynamic wave-driven inundation, and rising groundwater in a quantitative study specifically for the Laysan Island ecosystem. This is the first hydrodynamic model to simulate the combined impacts of SLR and wave-driven inundation in the NWHI. We developed a high-resolution digital elevation model (mean vertical accuracy of 0.32 m) for the island. Then using recent satellite imagery, geospatial models, and historical oceanographic, storm, and biological data we estimated potential inundation extent, habitat loss, and wildlife population impacts for a range of potential SLR scenarios (0.00, +0.50, +1.00, +1.50, and +2.00 m) that may occur over the next century. Additionally, we estimated the carrying capacity of Laysan Island for five species based on the available population monitoring data and described how potential losses in nesting habitat could influence population dynamics for Black-footed Albatross, Laysan Albatross, Red-footed Booby (Sula sula), Laysan Teal, and Laysan Finch. For some other seabird populations (Masked Booby, S. dactylatra ; Brown Booby, S. leucogaster ; Great Frigatebird, Fregata minor ; and Sooty Tern, Onychoprion fuscata ), we used recent colony distribution data, land cover maps, and nesting behavior to estimate potential losses of nesting habitat from SLR and wave-driven inundation. We observed far greater potential impacts of SLR to wildlife with the dynamic wave-driven modeling approach than with the passive modeling approach. Depending on SLR scenario and coastal orientation, during storms under a +2.00 m SLR scenario, the wave-driven inundation model predicted three times more inundation than the passive model (17.2 percent of total terrestrial area versus 4.6 percent, respectively). Large-wave events generally added 1 m of water height to passive inundation surfaces, therefore our dynamic models (during storm events) forecasted comparable inundation extents earlier than passive models. Although wave-driven water levels were highest in the northwest quadrant of Laysan Island, the greatest extent of inundation occurred in the southeast where coastal dunes less than 3 m above mean sea level provide little protection from wave-driven inundation. When wave-driven inundation was included in the SLR model for Laysan Island greater nesting habitat loss and potential impacts on wildlife population dynamics were predicted. The consequences of habitat loss due to SLR may be worse for species with colonies in the wave-exposed coastal zones (for example, Black-footed Albatross) and for populations already near the island's carrying capacity (for example, Laysan Teal). Species whose peak incubation and chick-rearing periods coincide with seasonally high wave heights also will be increasingly vulnerable, especially those species nesting on the ground in areas vulnerable to inundation, such as Gray-backed Tern and Black-footed Albatross. Other species that have space for population growth, or are not restricted to a narrow range of habitat types on Laysan (for instance, Sooty Terns), may be less sensitive to habitat loss from SLR over the next century. Our assessments of inundation risk, habitat loss, and wildlife species vulnerability synthesize current knowledge about individual islands and contribute to a broader understanding of the impacts of inundation from SLR and storm-induced waves. Yet, most NWHI and their bird populations lack monitoring data to evaluate adaptations to and impacts of climate change. Exceptions include some data sets from long-term monitoring of wildlife populations, tides, or weather at French Frigate Shoals, Laysan Island, and Midway Atoll. These data sets are potentially valuable baselines, which could be informative for adaptive learning (integrating management and science) to predict, adapt, and mitigate the effects of climate change on NWHI wildlife in the future. This study provides the first quantitative vulnerability assessment for all of the low-lying NWHI, and results identify biological communities, locales, and resident endangered species of Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument expected to be at risk from SLR. This report is also intended as a reference for managers and conservation planners, a tool to identify and potentially reduce uncertainty, and a starting place for developing climate change monitoring priorities and future scientific studies.

Hawai'i↗

USGS1994

Problems of stock definition in estimating relative contributions of Atlantic striped bass to the coastal fishery

Stock contribution studies of mixed‐stock fisheries rely on the application of classification algorithms to samples of unknown origin. Although the performance of these algorithms can be assessed, there are no guidelines regarding decisions about including minor stocks, pooling stocks into regional groups, or sampling discrete substocks to adequately characterize a stock. We examined these questions for striped bass Morone saxatilis of the U.S. Atlantic coast by applying linear discriminant functions to meristic and morphometric data from fish collected from spawning areas. Some of our samples were from the Hudson and Roanoke rivers and four tributaries of the Chesapeake Bay. We also collected fish of mixed‐stock origin from the Atlantic Ocean near Montauk, New York. Inclusion of the minor stock from the Roanoke River in the classification algorithm decreased the correct‐classification rate, whereas grouping of the Roanoke River and Chesapeake Bay stock into a regional (“southern”) group increased the overall resolution. The increased resolution was offset by our inability to obtain separate contribution estimates of the groups that were pooled. Although multivariate analysis of variance indicated significant differences among Chesapeake Bay substocks, increasing the number of substocks in the discriminant analysis decreased the overall correct‐classification rate, Although the inclusion of one, two, three, or four substocks in the classification algorithm did not greatly affect the overall correct‐classification rates, the specific combination of substocks significantly affected the relative contribution estimates derived from the mixed‐stock sample, Future studies of this kind must balance the costs and benefits of including minor stocks and would profit from examination of the variation in discriminant characters among all Chesapeake Bay substocks.

Maryland↗

USGS2015

Prediction of plant vulnerability to salinity increase in a coastal ecosystem by stable isotopic composition (δ 18 O) of plant stem water: a model study

Sea level rise and the subsequent intrusion of saline seawater can result in an increase in soil salinity, and potentially cause coastal salinity-intolerant vegetation (for example, hardwood hammocks or pines) to be replaced by salinity-tolerant vegetation (for example, mangroves or salt marshes). Although the vegetation shifts can be easily monitored by satellite imagery, it is hard to predict a particular area or even a particular tree that is vulnerable to such a shift. To find an appropriate indicator for the potential vegetation shift, we incorporated stable isotope 18 O abundance as a tracer in various hydrologic components (for example, vadose zone, water table) in a previously published model describing ecosystem shifts between hammock and mangrove communities in southern Florida. Our simulations showed that (1) there was a linear relationship between salinity and the δ 18 O value in the water table, whereas this relationship was curvilinear in the vadose zone; (2) hammock trees with higher probability of being replaced by mangroves had higher δ 18 O values of plant stem water, and this difference could be detected 2 years before the trees reached a tipping point, beyond which future replacement became certain; and (3) individuals that were eventually replaced by mangroves from the hammock tree population with a 50% replacement probability had higher stem water δ 18 O values 3 years before their replacement became certain compared to those from the same population which were not replaced. Overall, these simulation results suggest that it is promising to track the yearly δ 18 O values of plant stem water in hammock forests to predict impending salinity stress and mortality.

Ecosystems↗

USGS2024

Potential impacts of an autumn oil spill on polar bears summering on land in northern Alaska

Demand for oil and natural gas continues to increase, leading to the development of remote regions where it is riskier to operate. Many of these regions have had limited development, so understanding potential impacts to wildlife could inform management decisions. In 2017, the United States passed legislation allowing oil and gas development in the coastal plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in northeastern Alaska. This area has received limited industrial development and is an important region for polar bears that use the coastline as a travel corridor in autumn. We sought to understand how an autumn near-shore oil spill in the Refuge could affect polar bears. We simulated oil spills from shallow sub-sea pipelines at 3 locations along the coastline of the Refuge and allowed spills to discharge 4800 barrels of oil per day for 6 days, and tracked oil for 50 days. We interacted the trajectories with simulated polar bear movements to estimate how many bears might be exposed. Oil spread quickly along the coastline and during some weeks exposed an average of 10 bears (95 % CI: 0–37) to lethal levels of oil, and 60 (95 % CI: 9–120) to sub-lethal levels. Our results suggest a significant number of polar bears could become oiled from a spill in the region and require decontamination. Therefore, future mitigation strategies could include careful siting of future development and additional capacity to capture and decontaminate bears in the event of an oil spill.

Alaska↗

USGS1991

Ground-water resources of the south metropolitan Atlanta region, Georgia

Ground-water resources of the nine county south metropolitan Atlanta region were evaluated in response to an increased demand for water supplies and concern that existing surface water supplies may not be able to meet future supply demands. Previous investigations have suggested that crystalline rock in the study area has low permeability and can not sustain well yields suitable for public supply. However, the reported yield for 406 wells drilled into crystalIine rock units in this area ranged from less than 1 to about 700 gallons per minute, and averaged 43 gallons per minute. The reported flow from 13 springs ranged from 0.5 to 679 gallons per minute. The yield of 43 wells and flow from five springs was reported to exceed 100 gallons per minute. Most of the high-yielding wells and springs were near contact zones between rocks of contrasting lithologic and weathering properties. The high-yielding wells and springs are located in a variety of topographic settings: hillsides, upland draws, and hilltops were most prevalent. The study area, which includes Henry, Fayette, Coweta, Spalding, Lamar, Pike, Meriwether, Upson and Talbot Counties, is within the Piedmont physiographic province except for the southernmost part of Talbot County, which is in the Coastal Plain physiographic province. In the Piedmont, ground-water storage occurs in joints, fractures and other secondary openings in the bedrock, and in pore spaces in the regolith. The most favorable geologic settings for siting highyielding wells are along contact zones between rocks of contrasting lithology and permeability, major zones of fracturing such as the Towaliga and Auchumpkee fault zones, and other numerous shear and microbreccia zones. Although most wells in the study area are from 101 to 300 feet deep, the highest average yields were obtained from wells 51 to 100 feet deep, and 301 to 500 feet deep. Of the wells inventoried, the average diameter of well casing was largest for wells located on hills and ridges, possibly indicating a preference for such topographic locations by cities and industrial users who typically develop larger diameter wells than do domestic users. Generally, for a given depth range or well diameter, the highest yielding wells were obtained in draws and valleys, followed by hills and ridges and slopes and flats. In 1985, wells and springs supplied about 16 million gallons per day or 37 percent of the total water withdrawn in the area. Average recharge to the aquifers in the upper Flint River basin, which constitutes 66 percent of the area, was estimated to be about 575 million gallons per day. Groundwater recharge in this basin ranged from 414 million gallons per day during an average dry year, to 77 million gallons per day during an average wet year. During the severe drought of 1954, the estimated recharge was 70 million gallons per day. Ground water in the study area generally is suitable for most uses. With the exception of local occurences of excessive iron, fluoride, and manganese, concentrations of total and/or dissolved constituents generally meets State and Federal drinking water standards. Ground-water quality may be affected by the presence of radionuclides associated with the decay of uranium found in igneous and metamorphic rocks.

Georgia↗

USGS2008

Application of multiple isotopic and geochemical tracers for investigation of recharge, salinization, and residence time of water in the Souss-Massa aquifer, southwest of Morocco

Groundwater and surface water in Souss-Massa basin in the west-southern part of Morocco is characterized by a large variation in salinity, up to levels of 37 g L-1. The high salinity coupled with groundwater level decline pose serious problems for current irrigation and domestic water supplies as well as future exploitation. A combined hydrogeologic and isotopic investigation using several chemical and isotopic tracers such as Br/Cl, ??18O, ??2H, 3H, 87Sr/86Sr, ??11B, and 14C was carried out in order to determine the sources of water recharge to the aquifer, the origin of salinity, and the residence time of water. Stable isotope, 3H and 14C data indicate that the high Atlas mountains in the northern margin of the Souss-Massa basin with high rainfall and low ??18O and ??2H values (-6 to -8??? and -36 to -50???) is currently constitute the major source of recharge to the Souss-Massa shallow aquifer, particularly along the eastern part of the basin. Localized stable isotope enrichments offset meteoric isotopic signature and are associated with high nitrate concentrations, which infer water recycling via water agricultural return flows. The 3H and 14C data suggest that the residence time of water in the western part of the basin is in the order of several thousands of years; hence old water is mined, particularly in the coastal areas. The multiple isotope analyses and chemical tracing of groundwater from the basin reveal that seawater intrusion is just one of multiple salinity sources that affect the quality of groundwater in the Souss-Massa aquifer. We differentiate between modern seawater intrusion, salinization by remnants of seawater entrapped in the middle Souss plains, recharge of nitrate-rich agricultural return flow, and dissolution of evaporate rocks (gypsum and halite minerals) along the outcrops of the high Atlas mountains. The data generated in this study provide the framework for a comprehensive management plan in which water exploitation should shift toward the eastern part of the basin where current recharge occurs with young and high quality groundwater. In contrast, we argued that the heavily exploited aquifer along the coastal areas is more vulnerable given the relatively longer residence time of the water and salinization processes in this part of the aquifer. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS2017

Land area change in coastal Louisiana (1932 to 2016)

Coastal Louisiana wetlands are one of the most critically threatened environments in the United States. These wetlands are in peril because Louisiana currently experiences greater coastal wetland loss than all other States in the contiguous United States combined. The analyses of landscape change presented here have utilized historical surveys, aerial, and satellite data to quantify landscape changes from 1932 to 2016. Analyses show that coastal Louisiana has experienced a net change in land area of approximately -4,833 square kilometers (modeled estimate: -5,197 +/- 443 square kilometers) from 1932 to 2016. This net change in land area amounts to a decrease of approximately 25 percent of the 1932 land area. Previous studies have presented linear rates of change over multidecadal time periods which unintentionally suggest that wetland change occurs at a constant rate, although in many cases, wetland change rates vary with time. A penalized regression spline technique was used to determine the model that best fit the data, rather than fitting the data with linear trends. Trend analyses from model fits indicate that coastwide rates of wetland change have varied from -83.5 +/- 11.8 square kilometers per year to -28.01 +/- 16.37 square kilometers per year. To put these numbers into perspective, this equates to long-term average loss rates of approximately an American football field’s worth of coastal wetlands within 34 minutes when losses are rapid to within 100 minutes at more recent, slower rates. Of note is the slowing of the rate of wetland change since its peak in the mid- 1970s. Not only have rates of wetland loss been decreasing since that time, a further rate reduction has been observed since 2010. Possible reasons for this reduction include recovery from lows affected by the hurricanes of 2005 and 2008, the lack of major storms in the past 8 years, a possible slowing of subsidence rates, the reduction in and relocation of oil and gas extraction and infrastructure since the peak of such activities in the late 1960s, and restoration activities. In addition, many wetlands in more exposed positions in the landscape have already been lost. Most notable of the factors listed above is the lack of major storms over the past 8 years. The observed coastwide net “stability” in land area observed over the past 6–8 years does not imply that loss has ceased. Future disturbance events such as a major hurricane impact could change the trajectory of the rates. Sea-level rise is projected to increase at an exponential rate, and that would also expedite the rate of wetland loss.

Louisiana↗

USGS2017

Sensitivity analysis of a coupled hydrodynamic-vegetation model using the effectively subsampled quadratures method

Coastal hydrodynamics can be greatly affected by the presence of submerged aquatic vegetation. The effect of vegetation has been incorporated into the Coupled-Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) Modeling System. The vegetation implementation includes the plant-induced three-dimensional drag, in-canopy wave-induced streaming, and the production of turbulent kinetic energy by the presence of vegetation. In this study, we evaluate the sensitivity of the flow and wave dynamics to vegetation parameters using Sobol' indices and a least squares polynomial approach referred to as Effective Quadratures method. This method reduces the number of simulations needed for evaluating Sobol' indices and provides a robust, practical, and efficient approach for the parameter sensitivity analysis. The evaluation of Sobol' indices shows that kinetic energy, turbulent kinetic energy, and water level changes are affected by plant density, height, and to a certain degree, diameter. Wave dissipation is mostly dependent on the variation in plant density. Performing sensitivity analyses for the vegetation module in COAWST provides guidance for future observational and modeling work to optimize efforts and reduce exploration of parameter space.

Geoscientific Model Development↗

USGS2017

Vertical datum conversion process for the inland and coastal gage network located in the New England, Mid-Atlantic, and South Atlantic-Gulf hydrologic regions

Datum conversions from the National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929 to the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 among inland and coastal gages throughout the hydrologic regions of New England, the Mid-Atlantic, and the South Atlantic-Gulf have implications among river and storm surge forecasting, general commerce, and water-control operations. The process of data conversions may involve the application of a recovered National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929–North American Vertical Datum of 1988 offset, a simplistic datum transformation using VDatum or VERTCON software, or a survey, depending on a gaging network datum evaluation, anticipated uncertainties for data use among the cooperative water community, and methods used to derive the conversion. Datum transformations from National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929 to North American Vertical Datum of 1988 using VERTCON purport errors of ± 0.13 foot at the 95 percent confidence level among modeled points, claiming more consistency along the east coast. Survey methods involving differential and trigonometric leveling, along with observations using Global Navigation Satellite System technology, afford a variety of approaches to establish or perpetuate a datum during a survey. Uncertainties among leveling approaches are generally < 0.1 foot, and and Global Navigation Satellite System approaches may be categorized with uncertainties of ≤0.1 foot for a Level I quality category and ≥0.1 foot for Level II or III quality categories (defined by the U.S. Geological Survey) by observation and review of experienced practice. The conversion process is initiated with an evaluation of the inland and coastal gage network datum, beginning with altitude datum components and the history of those components queried through the U.S. Geological Survey Groundwater Site Inventory database. Subsequent edits to the Groundwater Site Inventory database may be required and a consensus reached among the U.S. Geological Survey Water Science Centers to identify the outstanding workload categorized as in-office datum transformations or offset applications versus out-of-office survey efforts. Datum conversions or datum establishment for the inland or coastal gaging network should meet datum uncertainty requirements among other Federal agencies. Datum uncertainty requirements are ±0.25 foot for U.S. Army Corps of Engineers water-control or construction projects and ±0.16 foot for Federal Emergency Management Agency field surveys and checkpoint surveys used for mapping. River level forecasts generally are defined as ± 0.10 foot among the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration–National Weather Service. Collaboration and communication among the cooperative water community is necessary during a datum conversion or datum change. Datum notification time-change requirements set by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration–National Weather Service vary from 30 to 120 days, depending on datum conversion or datum-change case scenarios. Notification times associated with these case scenarios may be useful to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration–National Weather Service and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, because their daily operations are time sensitive, unlike the notification time change requirements of other entities that make up the cooperative water community. At the time of this writing, a future geopotential datum resulting from Gravity for the Redefinition of the American Vertical Datum is anticipated in 2022. A future version of VDatum and VERTCON is anticipated to provide a transformation among North American Vertical Datum of 1988 elevations to the new geopotential datum.

Techniques and Methods↗

USGS1994

Response of staging brant to disturbance at Izembek Lagoon, Alaska

Human disturbance of migrating waterfowl concerns managers of wildlife populations and refuges. Human disturbance may reduce food intake through interruption of foraging bouts or by displacement from feeding areas (Madsen 1985, Belanger and Bedard 1989), and it may increase energy expenditure from additional time in flight (Korschgen et al., 1985). Reduced food intake and increased energy expenditure can affect the ability of waterfowl to acquire nutrient reserves for successful migration (Fredrickson and Drobney 1979, Davis and Wiseley 1974, Belanger and Bedard 1990). Furthermore, nutrient reserves acquired during fall migration may influence overwinter survival (Haramis et al. 1986). Over 90% of the Pacific Flyway population of brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) annually migrates to the Izembek Lagoon, Alaska and adjacent areas in fall (Bellrose 1976, Reed et al. 1989). During the 4- to 10-week staging period, brant feed predominantly on energy-rich common eelgrass ( Zostera marina ) prior to a transoceanic flight to coastal wintering areas in Washington, Oregon, California, and Mexico (Hansen and Nelson 1957, Morehouse 1974, Bellrose 1976). The lzembek Lagoon, a wetland of international importance (Smart 1987), also is a major staging area for Canada geese ( Branta canadensis taverneri ), emperor geese ( Chen canagica ), and other waterbirds (Ward and Stehn 1989). Brant are disturbed by aircraft and other human activities. Jones and Jones (1966) noted that aircraft caused brant to take flight in fall at the Izembek Lagoon. Aircraft influence movements of molting brant and evoke escape responses (Derksen et al. 1979, Jensen 1990). Aircraft, boats, and hunters affect distribution of wintering brant and cause premature departures from feeding areas (Owens 1977, Kramer et al 1979, Henry 1980). However, few data have been published concerning the extent to which disturbance affects behavior of fall-staging brant. Our objective was to measure current disturbance levels and to determine the extent to which disturbance affects the behavior of brant at the Izembek Lagoon during fall. This baseline information is needed to monitor any future changes in these levels and to provide guidelines for alleviating conflicts where increased human activities cause excessive disturbance.

Alaska↗

USGS2022

Estimating detection and occupancy of secretive marsh bird species in low and high saline marshes in southwestern Louisiana using automated recording units

Secretive marsh birds (SMBs) are important indicator species of coastal wetlands but are difficult to detect and monitor. In coastal Louisiana, an important stronghold for these species, climate and hydrological models predict that freshwater and intermediate marshes will expand in the next 50 years, while brackish marshes will shrink. We used a multi-species Bayesian hierarchical occupancy model to estimate detection and occupancy probabilities for 11 SMB species in low and high saline marshes using data from automated recording units at 33 sites in southwestern Louisiana from February–June 2012. A quadratic effect of Julian date, but not minimum daily temperature nor precipitation affected detection of SMB species. King Rail ( Rallus elegans ), American Bittern ( Botaurus lentiginosus ), Common Gallinule ( Gallinula galeata ), and Pied-billed Grebe ( Podilymbus podiceps ) occupied mainly freshwater and intermediate marshes. Clapper Rail ( Rallus crepitans ), Seaside Sparrow ( Ammospiza maritima ), and Sora ( Porzana carolina ) predominantly occupied brackish and salt marshes. American Coot ( Fulica americana ), Purple Gallinule ( Porphyrio martinica ), Least Bittern ( Ixobrychus exilis ), and Marsh Wren ( Cistothorus palustris ) occupied both low and high saline marshes, showing flexibility that could maintain populations of these species as marsh salinities change in the future. If the current distribution of SMB species persists as marsh availability changes under future conditions, populations of the 4 species we found in low saline marshes may increase, whereas populations of at least 2 species found primarily in high saline marshes may decrease. Our modeling indicates that automatic recording units can produce comparable detection probabilities to other studies using traditional SMB sampling methods.

Louisiana↗

USGS2007

Long-term and storm-related shoreline change trends in the Florida Gulf Islands National Seashore

Coastal erosion on Northern Gulf of Mexico barrier islands is an ongoing issue that was exacerbated by the storm seasons of 2004 and 2005 when several hurricanes made landfall in the Gulf of Mexico. Two units of the Gulf Islands National Seashore (GUIS), located on Santa Rosa Island, a barrier island off the Panhandle coast of Florida, were highly impacted during the hurricanes of 2004 (Ivan) and 2005 (Cindy, Dennis, Katrina and Rita). In addition to the loss of or damage to natural and cultural resources within the park, damage to park infrastructure, including park access roads and utilities, occurred in areas experiencing rapid shoreline retreat. The main park road was located as close as 50 m to the pre-storm (2001) shoreline and was still under repair from damage incurred during Hurricane Ivan when the 2005 hurricanes struck. A new General Management Plan is under development for the Gulf Islands National Seashore. This plan, like the existing General Management Plan, strives to incorporate natural barrier island processes, and will guide future efforts to provide access to units of Gulf Islands National Seashore on Santa Rosa Island. To assess changes in island geomorphology and provide data for park management, the National Park Service and the U.S. Geological Survey are currently analyzing shoreline change to better understand long-term (100+ years) shoreline change trends as well as short-term shoreline impact and recovery to severe storm events. Results show that over an ~140-year period from the late 1800s to May 2004, the average shoreline erosion rates in the Fort Pickens and Santa Rosa units of GUIS were -0.7m/yr and -0.1 m/yr, respectively. Areas of historic erosion, reaching a maximum rate of -1.3 m/yr, correspond to areas that experienced overwash and road damage during the 2004 hurricane season.. The shoreline eroded as much as ~60 m during Hurricane Ivan, and as much as ~88 m over the course of the 2005 storm season. The shoreline erosion rates in the areas where the park road was heavily damaged were as high as -70.2 m/yr over the 2004-2005 time period. Additional post-storm monitoring of these sections of the island, to assess whether erosion rates stabilize, will help to parks to determine the best long-term management strategy for the park infrastructure.

Florida↗

USGS2014

Simulation of groundwater flow and saltwater movement in the Onslow County area, North Carolina: predevelopment-2010

Onslow County, North Carolina, is located within the designated Central Coastal Plain Capacity Use Area (CCPCUA). The CCPCUA was designated by law as a result of groundwater level declines of as much as 200 feet during the past four decades within aquifers in rocks of Cretaceous age in the central Coastal Plain of North Carolina and a depletion of water in storage from increased groundwater withdrawals in the area. The declines and depletion of water in storage within the Cretaceous aquifers increase the potential for saltwater migration—both lateral encroachment and upward leakage of brackish water. Within the CCPCUA, a reduction in groundwater withdrawals over a period of 16 years from 2003 to 2018 is mandated. Under the CCPCUA rules, withdrawals in excess of 100,000 gallons per day from any of the Cretaceous aquifer well systems are subject to water-use reductions of as much as 75 percent. To assess the effects of the CCPCUA rules and to assist with groundwater-management decisions, a numerical model was developed to simulate the groundwater flow and chloride concentrations in the surficial Castle Hayne, Beaufort, Peedee, and Black Creek aquifers in the Onslow County area. The model was used to (1) simulate groundwater flow from 1900 to 2010; (2) assess chloride movement throughout the aquifer system; and (3) create hypothetical scenarios of future groundwater development. After calibration of a groundwater flow model and conversion to a variable-density model, five scenarios were created to simulate future groundwater conditions in the Onslow County area: (1) full implementation of the CCPCUA rules with three phases of withdrawal reductions simulated through 2028; (2) implementation of only phase 1 withdrawal reductions of the CCPCUA rules and simulated through 2028; (3) implementation of only phases 1 and 2 withdrawal reductions of the CCPCUA rules and simulated through 2028; (4) full implementation of the CCPCUA rules with the addition of withdrawals from the Castle Hayne aquifer in Onslow County at the fully permitted amount in the final stress period and simulated through 2028; and (5) full implementation of the CCPCUA rules as in scenario 1 except simulated through 2100. Results from the scenarios give an indication of the water-level recovery in the Black Creek aquifer throughout each phase of the CCPCUA rules in Onslow County. Furthermore, as development of the Castle Hayne aquifers was increased in the scenarios, cones of depression were created around pumping centers. Additionally, the scenarios indicated little to no change in chloride concentrations for the time periods simulated.

North Carolina↗

USGS2007

Long-term and storm-related shoreline change trends in the Florida Gulf Islands National Seashore

Coastal erosion on Northern Gulf of Mexico barrier islands is an ongoing issue that was exacerbated by the storm seasons of 2004 and 2005 when several hurricanes made landfall in the Gulf of Mexico. Two units of the Gulf Islands National Seashore (GUIS), located on Santa Rosa Island, a barrier island off the Panhandle coast of Florida, were highly impacted during the hurricanes of 2004 (Ivan) and 2005 (Cindy, Dennis, Katrina and Rita). In addition to the loss of or damage to natural and cultural resources within the park, damage to park infrastructure, including park access roads and utilities, occurred in areas experiencing rapid shoreline retreat. The main park road was located as close as 50 m to the pre-storm (2001) shoreline and was still under repair from damage incurred during Hurricane Ivan when the 2005 hurricanes struck. A new General Management Plan is under development for the Gulf Islands National Seashore. This plan, like the existing General Management Plan, strives to incorporate natural barrier island processes, and will guide future efforts to provide access to units of Gulf Islands National Seashore on Santa Rosa Island. To assess changes in island geomorphology and provide data for park management, the National Park Service and the U.S. Geological Survey are currently analyzing shoreline change to better understand long-term (100+ years) shoreline change trends as well as short-term shoreline impact and recovery to severe storm events. Results show that over an ~140-year period from the late 1800s to May 2004, the average shoreline erosion rates in the Fort Pickens and Santa Rosa units of GUIS were -0.7m/yr and -0.1 m/yr, respectively. Areas of historic erosion, reaching a maximum rate of -1.3 m/yr, correspond to areas that experienced overwash and road damage during the 2004 hurricane season. The shoreline eroded as much as ~60 m during Hurricane Ivan, and as much as ~88 m over the course of the 2005 storm season. The shoreline erosion rates in the areas where the park road was heavily damaged were as high as -70.2 m/yr over the 2004-2005 time period. Additional post-storm monitoring of these sections of the island, to assess whether erosion rates stabilize, will help to parks to determine the best long-term management strategy for the park infrastructure.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2006

Productivity of Black Oystercatchers: Effects of recreational disturbance in a National Park

National parks in Alaska are generally assumed to be high-quality, undisturbed wildlife habitats. However, these parks attract recreational users, whose presence may reduce the suitability of key habitats for nesting shorebirds. In Kenai Fjords National Park, Black Oystercatchers (Haematopus bachmani) often breed on gravel beaches that are also popular campsites. In this study, we examined the effects of recreational activities in coastal Alaska on reproductive performance of Black Oystercatchers. We monitored survival of nests and chicks on 35 to 39 breeding territories annually during four breeding seasons (2001-2004). Most recreational disturbance on these territories occurred after the peak hatching date of first clutches. Annual productivity was low (average of 0.35 chicks per pair), but was not strongly affected by recreational disturbance. Daily survival of nests varied annually and declined over the season. Our results suggest that nest survival was lower during periods of extreme high tides. Daily survival rate of broods increased over the season and was higher on island than mainland territories, likely due to differences in predator communities. Territory occupancy rate and site fidelity were high; 95% of color-banded oystercatchers returned to the same breeding territory in the subsequent year. We conclude that Black Oystercatchers are resilient to low levels of recreational disturbance. However, in light of projected increases in recreation, we suggest managers move campsites away from the traditional nest sites identified in this study to minimize future disturbances. ?? The Cooper Ornithological Society 2006.

Condor↗

USGS2020

Early goose arrival increases soil nitrogen availability more than an advancing spring in coastal western Alaska

An understudied aspect of climate change-induced phenological mismatch is its effect on ecosystem functioning, such as nitrogen (N) cycling. Migratory herbivore arrival time may alter N inputs and plant–herbivore feedbacks, whereas earlier springs are predicted to increase N cycling rates through warmer temperatures. However, the relative importance of these shifts in timing and how they interact to affect N cycling are largely unknown. We conducted a 3-year factorial experiment in coastal western Alaska that simulated different timings of Pacific black brant ( Branta bernicla nigricans ) arrival (3 weeks early, typical, 3 weeks late, or no-grazing) and the growing season (ca. 3 weeks advanced and ambient) on adsorbed and mobile inorganic (NH 4 + –N, NO 3 − –N) and mobile organic N (amino acid) pools. Early grazing increased NH 4 + –N, NO 3 − –N, and amino acids by 103%, 119%, and 7%, respectively, whereas late grazing reduced adsorbed NH 4 + –N and NO 3 − –N by 16% and 17%, respectively. In comparison, the advanced growing season increased mobile NH 4 + –N by 26%. The arrival time by geese and the start of the season did not interact to influence soil N availability. While the onset of spring in our system is advancing at twice the rate of migratory goose arrival, earlier goose migration is likely to be more significant than the advances in springs in influencing soil N, although both early goose arrival and advanced springs are likely to increase N availability in the future. This increase in soil N resources can have a lasting impact on plant community composition and productivity in this N-limited ecosystem.

Coastal western Alaska↗

USGS2015

Hydrogeologic map of the Islamic Republic of Mauritania (phase V, deliverable 56), Synthesis of hydrologic data (phase V, deliverable 57), and chemical hydrologic map of the Islamic Republic of Mauritania (added value)

A hydrogeologic study was conducted to support mineral-resource assessment activities in Mauritania, Africa. Airborne magnetic depth estimates reveal two primary groundwater basins: the porous coastal Continental Terminal Basin (fill deposits); and the interior, fractured interior Taoudeni Basin. In the Continental Terminal Basin, there is uniform vertical recharge and localized discharge that is coincident with groundwater pumping at Nouakchott. This pumping center induces eastward flow of groundwater from the Atlantic Ocean resulting in a salinity gradient that diminishes quality over 100 km. Groundwater also flows southward into the basin from Western Sahara. By contrast, an interbasin exchange occurs as fresh groundwater flows westward from the Taoudeni Basin. In the Taoudeni Basin, zones of local recharge occur in three areas: northwest at the edge of the Rgueïbat Shield; at the city of Tidjikja; and near the center of the basin. Groundwater also flows across international boundaries: northward into Western Sahara and westward into Mali. At the southern country boundary, the Senegal River serves as both a source and sink of fresh groundwater to the Continental Terminal and Taoudeni basins. Using a geographical information system, thirteen hydrogeologic units are identified based on lateral extent and distinct hydraulic properties for future groundwater model development. Combining this information with drilling productivity, groundwaterquality, and geophysical interpretations (fracturing and absence of subsurface dikes) three potential water-resource development targets were identified: sedimentary rocks of the Jurassic, Cretaceous, and Quaternary Periods; sedimentary rocks of Cambrian and Ordovician Periods; and sedimentary rocks of Neoproterozoic age.

Open-File Report↗