Prediction of plant vulnerability to salinity increase in a coastal ecosystem by stable isotopic composition (δ 18 O) of plant stem water: a model study

Abstract

Sea level rise and the subsequent intrusion of saline seawater can result in an increase in soil salinity, and potentially cause coastal salinity-intolerant vegetation (for example, hardwood hammocks or pines) to be replaced by salinity-tolerant vegetation (for example, mangroves or salt marshes). Although the vegetation shifts can be easily monitored by satellite imagery, it is hard to predict a particular area or even a particular tree that is vulnerable to such a shift. To find an appropriate indicator for the potential vegetation shift, we incorporated stable isotope 18 O abundance as a tracer in various hydrologic components (for example, vadose zone, water table) in a previously published model describing ecosystem shifts between hammock and mangrove communities in southern Florida. Our simulations showed that (1) there was a linear relationship between salinity and the δ 18 O value in the water table, whereas this relationship was curvilinear in the vadose zone; (2) hammock trees with higher probability of being replaced by mangroves had higher δ 18 O values of plant stem water, and this difference could be detected 2 years before the trees reached a tipping point, beyond which future replacement became certain; and (3) individuals that were eventually replaced by mangroves from the hammock tree population with a 50% replacement probability had higher stem water δ 18 O values 3 years before their replacement became certain compared to those from the same population which were not replaced. Overall, these simulation results suggest that it is promising to track the yearly δ 18 O values of plant stem water in hammock forests to predict impending salinity stress and mortality.