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USGS2026

Multireservoir allocation framework considering societal and ecological needs in a time-frequency domain

Existing reservoir management frameworks traditionally consider historical (predam) flow conditions to deliver environmental flows. Such frameworks may not be feasible because current demand and/or climate could be different from predam conditions. Hence, we developed a multireservoir framework that explicitly considers both human water demands and environmental flow requirements to minimize deviations under current hydroclimatic conditions and demand patterns. The multireservoir framework, Generalized Reservoir Analyses using Probabilistic Streamflow (GRAPS), was modified and implemented to solve the problem of minimizing the flow deviations using feasible sequential quadratic programming for three reservoirs in the Chattahoochee River Basin, Southeastern United States, which is known for its imperiled native biodiversity and productive estuarine ecosystem. Our results show that downstream reservoirs in the cascade system are less influenced by upstream reservoirs’ regulation because the downstream reservoirs receive a significant amount of natural flows. By comparing the average wavelet power spectrum at different periodicities between natural flows and downstream releases, we found that the current release policy and modified releases resulted in highly altered flows under shorter periodicities (e.g., less than 2 months) but synchronized flow variance between natural flow and downstream releases at longer periodicities (e.g., greater than 3 years). This framework of linking the multireservoir allocation model through the time–frequency analysis using wavelet power spectrum could not only advance sustainable water management policies to meet water for human and environmental needs but can also add additional value in meeting the downstream environmental demand at desired periodicities.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia↗

USGS2012

The potential effects of sodium bicarbonate, a major constituent from coalbed natural gas production, on aquatic life

The production water from coalbed natural gas (CBNG) extraction contains many constituents. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has established aquatic life criteria for some of these constituents, and it is therefore possible to evaluate their risk to aquatic life. However, of the major ions associated with produced waters, chloride is the only one with an established aquatic life criterion (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1988). The focus of this research was NaHCO 3 , a compound that is a major constituent of coalbed natural gas produced waters in the Tongue and Powder River Basins. This project included laboratory experiments, field in situ experiments, a field mixing zone study, and a fishery presence/absence assessment. Though this investigation focuses on the Tongue and Powder River Basins, the information is applicable to other watersheds where sodium bicarbonate is a principle component of product water either from CBNG or from traditional or unconventional oil and gas development. These data can also be used to separate effects of saline discharges from those potentially posed by other constituents. Finally, this research effort and the additional collaboration with USGS Water Resources and Mapping, Bureau of Land Management, US Environmental Protection Agency, State of Montana, State of Wyoming, Montana State University, University of Wyoming, and others as part of a Powder River Aquatic Task Group, can be used as a model for successful approaches to studying landscapes with energy development. The laboratory acute toxicity experiments were completed with a suite of organisms, including 7 species of fish, 5 species of invertebrates, and 1 amphibian species. Experiments performed on these multiple species resulted in LC50s that ranged from 1,120 to greater than (>) 8,000 milligrams sodium bicarbonate per liter (mg NaHCO 3 /L) (also defined as 769 to >8,000 milligrams bicarbonate per liter (mg HCO 3 -/L) or total alkalinity expressed as 608 to >4,181 milligrams calcium carbonate per liter (mg CaCO 3 /L)) that varied across species and lifestage within a species. The age at which fish were exposed to NaHCO 3 significantly affected the severity of toxic responses for some organisms. The chronic toxicity of NaHCO 3 was defined in experiments that lasted from 7—60 days post-hatch. For these experiments, sublethal effects such as growth and reproduction, in addition to significant reductions in survival were included in the final determination of effects. Chronic toxicity was observed at concentrations that ranged from 450 to 800mg NaHCO 3 /L (also defined as 430 to 657 mg HCO 3 -/L or total alkalinity expressed as 354 to 539 mg CaCO 3 /L) and the specific concentration depended on the sensitivity of the four species of invertebrates and fish exposed. Sublethal investigations during chronic studies revealed percent decrease in the activity of sodium-potassium adenosine triphosphatase (Na/K ATPase, an enzyme involved in ionoregulation) and the age of the fish at the onset of the decrease may affect the ability of fathead minnow to survive exposures to NaHCO 3 . A database of toxicity evaluations of NaHCO 3 on aquatic life has been constructed. Using these data, sample acute and chronic criteria of 459 and 381 mg NaHCO 3 /L, respectively, can be calculated for the protection of aquatic life. The final derivation and implementation of such criteria is, of course, left to the discretion of the concerned management agencies. A combination of in situ experiments, static-renewal experiments performed simultaneously with in situ experiments, and static renewal experiments performed with site water in the laboratory, demonstrated that untreated coalbed natural gas (CBNG) product water from the Tongue and Powder River Basins reduces survival of fathead minnow and pallid sturgeon. More precisely, the survival of early-lifestage fathead minnow, especially those less than 6-days post hatch (dph), likely is reduced significantly in the field when concentrations of NaHCO 3 rise above 1,500 mg/L. However, age was not a factor for pallid sturgeon and they were sensitive to product water regardless of age. Treatment with the Higgins Loop™ technology and dilution of untreated water increased survival in the laboratory. Both of these situations reduced ammonia in addition to the concentrations of NaHCO 3 . These experiments addressed the acute toxicity of effluent waters being added to the main stem rivers, but did not address issues related to the volumes of water that may be added to the watershed. Mixing zones of the three outfalls studied ranged from approximately 800—1,200 m below the confluence and the areas within these mixing zones with acutely lethal concentrations of NaHCO 3 (as defined by the presence of concentrated dye) are limited. The areas with concentrations of NaHCO 3 more than the concentrations likely to cause significant mortality, and more than the calculated sample water-quality criteria in the Tongue and Powder River Basins appear to be limited to tributaries and parts of mixing zones with considerable additions of untreated effluent.

Montana;Wyoming↗

USGS2020

Water-balance techniques for determining available soil-water storage for selected sandy and clay soil study sites in Cass County, North Dakota, 2016–17

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Agriculture Natural Resources Conservation Service, collected field and remotely sensed data on precipitation, evapotranspiration (ET), and soil-water content to determine available soil-water storage (AWS) at six study sites on sandy and clay soils in Cass County, North Dakota. Data were collected at all the study sites from May 1–October 31, 2016, and from May 1–October 24, 2017. Estimated daily AWS was determined using daily meteorological and potential evapotranspiration (PET) data obtained from various climate stations, and estimated monthly AWS was determined using monthly meteorological and PET data and monthly ET data determined using the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance model. AWS during 2016 and 2017 was determined at daily and monthly time steps because of data availability and to assess results using varying time steps. Comparisons of measured and estimated daily values of AWS at the Brewer Lake site indicated poor agreement during May–October 2016 and May–October 2017. Comparisons of measured and estimated daily values of AWS at the Embden East and Embden West sites indicated poor and fair agreement respectively. At the Lynchburg Crop and Lynchburg Grass sites, comparisons of measured and estimated daily values of AWS indicated fair and good relations, respectively, even with the possible effects of soil cracks. Mean estimated values of daily runoff plus soil percolation for the four sandy soil sites indicated that a maximum of about 19 percent of the estimated runoff plus soil percolation could be considered runoff and that the remaining 81 percent could be considered soil percolation, and for the two clay soil sites about 13 percent of the runoff plus soil percolation could have been considered runoff and about 87 percent could have been considered soil percolation. Results indicated little difference between using monthly PET or monthly ET in water-balance equations to estimate monthly AWS for the grouped sandy soil sites, and only slightly better results were obtained using monthly PET than monthly ET to estimate monthly AWS for the grouped clay soil study sites. Overall, the monthly water-balance models did not perform as well as the daily water-balance models for determining AWS at the six study sites. Additional data collection from a longer-period study and adjustments to the models may improve results from the monthly water-balance techniques.

North Dakota↗

USGS2024

Estimated reductions in phosphorus loads from removal of leaf litter in the Lake Champlain drainage area, Vermont

Excess nutrient loading and other factors are driving eutrophication and other negative effects on water-quality conditions in Lake Champlain and other receiving waters in Vermont. Two common best management practices were evaluated to determine how these practices can be optimized by targeting maintenance and operation to align better with seasonally driven needs, specifically to help municipalities remove a greater proportion of seasonal leaves and organic debris, reduce nutrient loading, and achieve water-quality goals. To characterize solid materials typically removed by the municipal BMPs of catch-basin (CB) cleaning and street cleaning (SC), subsamples of CB and SC materials were collected each month from nine participating municipalities in central and northwestern Vermont between September 2017 and November 2018. Monthly and seasonal composites of CB and SC samples were created from the subsamples of available materials from all municipalities. Samples were analyzed for concentrations of total organic carbon, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, and total phosphorus (P), and separated into three particle-size fractions. Distribution of particle-size fractions was similar between CB and SC as both practices generally collect the coarser fraction of solid materials (greater than 125 micrometers in diameter). In the fall, however, the range of the coarser fraction of materials increased. This is attributed to the ability of SC to collect leaves and other light organic materials that commonly pass through a CB system designed to trap heavier materials. Total organic carbon, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, and total P concentrations were highest in the catch-basin samples in the fall of 2017, and concentrations in the SC samples were highest in the fall of 2018. The collection of fewer samples in 2017 may account for some of the variability between fall 2017 and fall 2018 results. A subset of SC samples collected from piles representing specific street-cleaning routes in September and November 2018 were also analyzed. Materials collected in November were dominated by leaves, and the concentrations of the analyzed species of carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus in some samples were more than double those in samples collected on the same street-cleaning routes in September. The Vermont Department of Environmental Conservation and the University of Vermont developed estimates of load-reduction credits for CB and SC practices based on a policy developed by the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources that determined the potential for credits associated with leaf-removal activities. This process also considered BMPs that were initiated during the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Lake Champlain Basin Total Maximum Daily Load monitoring period (2000 to 2009) and adapted the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources policies to apply to existing SC routes in the cooperating Vermont municipalities that possessed at least 17 percent tree cover. This exercise demonstrated that applying the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources policy to existing street-cleaning routes possessing 17 percent or more tree cover would result in reductions in total P loads up to 65 percent of mandated target reductions, and about a 25 percent reduction on average. Continuous simulations of stormwater runoff volume, and of loads of suspended sediments and total P, also were created for Englesby Brook Basin, an urbanized basin in Burlington and South Burlington that drains to Lake Champlain. Although the basin is more developed than the average of the nine cooperating municipalities, streamflow and P loading data collected by the U.S. Geological Survey were available to evaluate model performance. Simulations based on a year of average climatic conditions projected potential small reductions in total P of 0.08 to 0.10 percent as a result of CB cleaning and SC practices. Simulated weekly SC practices, however, reduced street-solid loads by as much as 7 percent. When the proportion of total P seen in fall SC materials collected in Vermont was applied to these simulated street-solid loads, estimated reductions of total P were about 29 percent. The combination of analytical results, estimated load-reduction credits, and simulated reductions indicate that targeted increases of SC activities to reduce leaf loading in the fall have the potential to reduce loading to receiving waters and could help regulated communities meet their water-quality goals.

Vermont↗

USGS2025

Grammar to graph—An approach for semantic transformation of annotations to triples

Data annotation is the process of labeling data to show the outcome that a related data model should predict. In this study, annotation data were transformed into semantic graph triples, mainly for use with the Resource Description Framework (RDF), a type of entity-relationship-attribute data model for graph databases. The transformation of annotation data to semantic graph triples provides complex linguistic meaning with data handling advantages such as reduced data storage needs, improved logical specification of relations between objects, and reusable classes and properties that support logic and inference. A grammar-based framework in graph form supports user questions and queries. The words defining approximately 334 topographic feature types compiled by the U.S. Geological Survey were tokenized as units of analysis and grouped by part of speech. Their dependency relations were identified for this study using natural language processing libraries. Dependency concepts are used as structured semantic relations among part-of-speech classes. Tokens, units equivalent to words, form instances of classes and were quantified within a tabular output format using PostgreSQL data storage software. Table data were logically aligned as triples following a mapping file and stored with an ontology file using Ontop virtual triplestore software. A grammar ontology schema for the data was synchronized to match queries whose results validated the graph’s structure. The text analysis produced 8 part-of-speech classes of content words for object representations and 4 classes of function words for operational applications. Dependency relations formed 27 ontology properties for topographic subgraph structures. Token occurrences shaped overall ontology salience and formed a lexicon of syntactic terms for subgraph objects and properties. The schema ontology of class and property population shapes formed the lexicon of English terms. SPARQL Protocol and RDF Query Language (SPARQL) was used with the lexicon to conform data to RDF guidelines. This study confirms the hypothesis that although linguistic logic varies from description logic, its approximation applies to ontology design. Property and query use case patterns extracted from the analysis support queries concerning complex topographic relations and patterns normally embedded within text definitions. The method used in this study could be applied to text forms in other domains, such as survey notes.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2010

Faunal assemblages and multi-scale habitat patterns in headwater tributaries of the South Fork Trinity River - an unregulated river embedded within a multiple-use landscape

Headwaters can represent 80% of stream kilometers in a watershed, and they also have unique physical and biological properties that have only recently been recognized for their importance in sustaining healthy functioning stream networks and their ecological services. We sampled 60 headwater tributaries in the South Fork Trinity River, a 2,430 km2, mostly forested, multiple-use watershed in northwestern California. Our objectives were: (1) to differentiate unique headwater types using 69 abiotic and vegetation variables measured at three spatial scales, and then to reduce these to informative subsets; (2) determine if distinct biota occupied the different tributary types; (3) determine the environmental attributes associated with the presence and abundance of these biotic assemblages; and (4) using niche modeling, determine key attribute thresholds to illustrate how these biota could be employed as metrics of system integrity and ecological services. Several taxa were sufficiently abundant and widespread to use as bio-indicators: the presence and abundance of steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss), herpetofauna (reptile and amphibian) species richness, and signal crayfish (Pacifastacus leniusculus) represented different trophic positions, value as commercial resources (steelhead), sensitivity to environmental stress (amphibians), and indicators of biodiversity (herpetofauna species richness). Herpetofauna species richness did not differ, but abundances of steelhead trout, signal crayfish, and amphibian richness all differed significantly among tributary types. Niche models indicated that distribution and abundance patterns in both riparian and aquatic environments were associated with physical and structural attributes at multiple spatial scales, both within and around reaches. The bio-indicators responded to unique sets of attributes, reflecting the high environmental heterogeneity in headwater tributaries across this large watershed. These niche attributes represented a wide range of headwater environments, indicating responses to a number of natural and anthropogenic conditions, and demonstrated the value of using a suite of bio-indicators to elucidate watershed conditions, and to examine numerous disturbances that may influence ecological integrity.

Animal Biodiversity and Conservation↗

USGS2013

Status and trends monitoring of the mainstem Columbia River: sample frame development and review of programs relevant to the development of an integrated approach to monitoring

Implementing an Integrated Status and Trends Monitoring program (ISTM) for the mainstem Columbia River will help identify trends in important natural resources and help us understand the long-term collective effects of management actions. In this report, we present progress towards the completion of a stepwise process that will facilitate the development of an ISTM for the mainstem Columbia River. We discuss planning and regulatory documents that can be used to identify monitoring goals and objectives and present existing monitoring and research activities that should be considered as the development of a Columbia River ISTM proceeds. We also report progress towards the development of sample frames for the Columbia and Snake Rivers and their floodplains. The sample frames were formulated using Digital Elevation Models (DEM’s) of the river channel and upland areas and a Generalized Random-Tessellation Stratified (GRTS) algorithm for an area based resource to generate “master sample(s).” Working with the Pacific Northwest Aquatic Monitoring Partnership (PNAMP) we facilitated the transfer of the sample frames to the PNAMP “Monitoring Sample Designer” tool. We then discuss aspects of response and survey designs as they pertain to the formulation of a mainstem Columbia River ISTM. As efforts to formulate an ISTM for the mainstem Columbia River proceed, practitioners should utilize the extensive literature describing the planning and implementation of fish and wildlife mitigation and recovery efforts in the Columbia River Basin. While we make progress towards establishing an ISTM framework, considerable work needs to be done to formulate an ISTM program for the mainstem Columbia River. Long-term monitoring programs have been established for other large rivers systems; scientists that have experience planning, implementing, and maintaining large river monitoring efforts such as those in the Colorado, Illinois, and Mississippi Rivers should be consulted and involved as efforts proceed.

Idaho;Oregon;Washington↗

USGS2000

Seasonal estimates of riparian evapotranspiration using remote and in situ measurements

In many semi-arid basins during extended periods when surface snowmelt or storm runoff is absent, groundwater constitutes the primary water source for human habitation, agriculture and riparian ecosystems. Utilizing regional groundwater models in the management of these water resources requires accurate estimates of basin boundary conditions. A critical groundwater boundary condition that is closely coupled to atmospheric processes and is typically known with little certainty is seasonal riparian evapotranspiration ET). This quantity can often be a significant factor in the basin water balance in semi-arid regions yet is very difficult to estimate over a large area. Better understanding and quantification of seasonal, large-area riparian ET is a primary objective of the Semi-Arid Land-Surface-Atmosphere (SALSA) Program. To address this objective, a series of interdisciplinary experimental Campaigns were conducted in 1997 in the San Pedro Basin in southeastern Arizona. The riparian system in this basin is primarily made up of three vegetation communities: mesquite (Prosopis velutina), sacaton grasses (Sporobolus wrightii), and a cottonwood (Populus fremontii)/willow (Salix goodingii) forest gallery. Micrometeorological measurement techniques were used to estimate ET from the mesquite and grasses. These techniques could not be utilized to estimate fluxes from the cottonwood/willow (C/W) forest gallery due to the height (20-30 m) and non-uniform linear nature of the forest gallery. Short-term (2-4 days) sap flux measurements were made to estimate canopy transpiration over several periods of the riparian growing season. Simultaneous remote sensing measurements were used to spatially extrapolate tree and stand measurements. Scaled C/W stand level sap flux estimates were utilized to calibrate a Penman-Monteith model to enable temporal extrapolation between Synoptic measurement periods. With this model and set of measurements, seasonal riparian vegetation water use estimates for the riparian corridor were obtained. To validate these models, a 90-day pre-monsoon water balance over a 10 km section of the river was carried out. All components of the water balance, including riparian ET, were independently estimated. The closure of the water balance was roughly 5% of total inflows. The ET models were then used to provide riparian ET estimates over the entire corridor for the growing season. These estimates were approximately 14% less than those obtained from the most recent groundwater model of the basin for a comparable river reach.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2010

Southeast Regional Assessment Project for the National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey

The Southeastern United States spans a broad range of physiographic settings and maintains exceptionally high levels of faunal diversity. Unfortunately, many of these ecosystems are increasingly under threat due to rapid human development, and management agencies are increasingly aware of the potential effects that climate change will have on these ecosystems. Natural resource managers and conservation planners can be effective at preserving ecosystems in the face of these stressors only if they can adapt current conservation efforts to increase the overall resilience of the system. Climate change, in particular, challenges many of the basic assumptions used by conservation planners and managers. Previous conservation planning efforts identified and prioritized areas for conservation based on the current environmental conditions, such as habitat quality, and assumed that conditions in conservation lands would be largely controlled by management actions (including no action). Climate change, however, will likely alter important system drivers (temperature, precipitation, and sea-level rise) and make it difficult, if not impossible, to maintain recent historic conditions in conservation lands into the future. Climate change will also influence the future conservation potential of non-conservation lands, further complicating conservation planning. Therefore, there is a need to develop and adapt effective conservation strategies to cope with the effects of climate and landscape change on future environmental conditions. Congress recognized this important issue and authorized the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC; http://nccw.usgs.gov/) in the Fiscal Year 2008. The NCCWSC will produce science that will help resource management agencies anticipate and adapt to climate change impacts to fish, wildlife, and their habitats. With the release of Secretarial Order 3289 on September 14, 2009, the mandate of the NCCWSC was expanded to address climate change-related impacts on all Department of the Interior (DOI) resources. The NCCWSC will establish a network of eight DOI Regional Climate Science Centers (RCSCs) that will work with a variety of partners to provide natural resource managers with tools and information that will help them anticipate and adapt conservation planning and design for projected climate change. The forecasting products produced by the RCSCs will aid fish, wildlife, and land managers in designing suitable adaptive management approaches for their programs. The DOI also is developing Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) as science and conservation action partnerships at subregional scales. The USGS is working with the Southeast Region of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) to develop science collaboration between the future Southeast RCSC and future LCCs. The NCCWSC Southeast Regional Assessment Project (SERAP) will begin to develop regional downscaled climate models, land cover change models, regional ecological models, regional watershed models, and other science tools. Models and data produced by SERAP will be used in a collaborative process between the USGS, the FWS (LCCs), State and federal partners, nongovernmental organizations, and academia to produce science at appropriate scales to answer resource management questions. The SERAP will produce an assessment of climate change, and impacts on land cover, ecosystems, and priority species in the region. The predictive tools developed by the SERAP project team will allow end users to better understand potential impacts of climate change and sea level rise on terrestrial and aquatic populations in the Southeastern United States. The SERAP capitalizes on the integration of five existing projects: (1) the Multi-State Conservation Grants Program project "Designing Sustainable Landscapes," (2) the USGS multidisciplinary Science Thrust project "Water Availability for Ecological Needs," (3) the USGS Southeast Pilot Project "Climate Change in the Southeastern U.S. and its Impacts on Bird Distributions and Habitats," (4) a sea-level rise impacts study envisioned jointly with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and (5) two USGS sea-level rise impact assessment projects that address inundation hazards and provide probabilistic forecasts of coastal geomorphic change. The SERAP will expand on these existing projects and include the following tasks, which were initiated in summer 2009: * Regionally downscaled probabilistic climate-change projections * Integrated coastal assessment * Integrated terrestrial assessment * Multi-resolution assessment of potential climate change effects on biological resources: aquatic and hydrologic dynamics * Optimal conservation strategies to cope with climate change The SERAP seeks to formally integrate these tasks to aid conservation planning and design so that ecosystem management decisions can be optimized for providing desirable outcomes across a range of species and environments. The following chapters detail SERAP's efforts in providing a suite of regional climate, watershed, and landscape-change analyses and develop the interdisciplinary framework required for the biological planning phases of adaptive management and strategic conservation. The planning phase will include the identification of conservation alternatives, development of predictive models and decision support tools, and development of a template to address similar challenges and goals in other regions. The project teams will explore and develop ways to link the various ecological models arising from each component. The SERAP project team also will work closely with members of the LCCs and other partnerships throughout the life of the project to ensure that the objectives of the project meet resources mangers needs in the Southeast.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2021

Development of a screening tool to examine lake and reservoir susceptibility to eutrophication in selected watersheds of the eastern and southeastern United States

This report describes a new screening tool to examine lake and reservoir susceptibility to eutrophication in selected watersheds of the eastern and southeastern United States using estimated nutrient loading and flushing rates with measures of waterbody morphometry. To that end, the report documents the compiled data and methods (R-script) used to categorize waterbodies by Carlson’s Trophic State Index. Assessments were completed for 232 lakes and reservoirs having a surface area greater than or equal to 0.1 square kilometer in watersheds that drain to the Atlantic and eastern Gulf of Mexico coasts of the United States and in watersheds within the Tennessee River Basin. Waterbodies were categorized by type—natural lakes, headwater reservoirs, and downstream reservoirs—and were assessed independently. Recursive partitioning and the model-based boosting routine were used to create four-node regression trees to group waterbodies into five endpoints from low-to-high measures of Secchi depth, and concentrations of chlorophyll a and microcystin according to shared nutrient loading, flushing rate, and morphometric characteristics. Trophic state designations were assigned based on the average value within each of the five endpoints. An application (procedure) is provided using the tool to examine the susceptibility of a given waterbody of interest to eutrophication. Results of this study can aid water-resource managers in prioritizing lake and reservoir protection and restoration efforts based on the susceptibility of these waterbodies to eutrophication relative to nutrient loading, flushing rate, and morphometric characteristics.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2011

Characteristics of foraging sites and protein status in wintering muskoxen: insights from isotopes of nitrogen

Identifying links between nutritional condition of individuals and population trajectories greatly enhances our understanding of the ecology, conservation, and management of wildlife. For northern ungulates, the potential impacts of a changing climate to populations are predicted to be nutritionally mediated through an increase in the severity and variance in winter conditions. Foraging conditions and the availability of body protein as a store for reproduction in late winter may constrain productivity in northern ungulates, yet the link between characteristics of wintering habitats and protein status has not been established for a wild ungulate. We used a non‐invasive proxy of protein status derived from isotopes of N in excreta to evaluate the influence of winter habitats on the protein status of muskoxen in three populations in Alaska (2005–2008). Multiple regression and an information‐theoretic approach were used to compare models that evaluated the influence of population, year, and characteristics of foraging sites (components of diet and physiography) on protein status for groups of muskoxen. The observed variance in protein status among groups of muskoxen across populations and years was partially explained (45%) by local foraging conditions that affected forage availability. Protein status improved for groups of muskoxen as the amount of graminoids in the diet increased (−0.430 ± 0.31, β± 95% CI) and elevation of foraging sites decreased (0.824 ± 0.67). Resources available for reproduction in muskoxen are highly dependent upon demographic, environmental, and physiographic constraints that affect forage availability in winter. Due to their very sedentary nature in winter, muskoxen are highly susceptible to localized foraging conditions; therefore, the spatial variance in resource availability may exert a strong effect on productivity. Consequently, there is a clear need to account for climate–topography effects in winter at multiple scales when predicting the potential impacts of climatic shifts on population trajectories of muskoxen.

Oikos↗

USGS2022

Effects of an early mass-flowering crop on wild bee communities and traits in power line corridors vary with blooming plants and landscape context

Context Power line corridors have been repeatedly assessed as habitat for wild bees; however, few studies have examined them as bee habitat relative to nearby crop fields and surrounding landscape context. Objectives We surveyed bee communities in power line corridors near to and isolated from lowbush blueberry fields in two landscape contexts in Maine, U.S.A. We examined the influences of blooming plant abundance and diversity and bee life-history traits including sociality, nesting preference, and body size. Methods We surveyed wild bees and blooming plants in power line corridors from 2013 to 2015. We calculated landscape composition surrounding sites at multiple scales and gathered bee trait information from the literature. We assessed differences in bee communities owing to landscape context with generalized linear models. Results We collected 125 wild bee species and observed a rare plant-pollinator relationship within power line corridors. We found greater bee abundance and species richness throughout a complex, resource-rich landscape, while mass-flowering lowbush blueberry fields enhanced bee species richness only in a simple, resource-poor landscape. Landscape composition and blooming plant diversity varied with landscape context, though only landscape composition influenced bee communities. Solitary and ground-nesting species were more sensitive to landscape context than social or cavity-nesting species. Conclusions Power line corridors provide crucial refugia for crop pollinating wild bees in agricultural landscapes with resource-poor natural habitat, while bees may selectively forage in power line corridors within agricultural landscapes containing resource-rich natural habitat. We found high-quality forage within corridors; quantifying nesting resources could clarify corridor use by wild bees.

Maine↗

USGS1997

Equations for estimating synthetic unit-hydrograph parameter values for small watersheds in Lake County, Illinois

Design hydrographs computed from design storms, simple models of abstractions (interception, depression storage, and infiltration), and synthetic unit hydrographs provide vital information for stormwater, flood-plain, and water-resources management throughout the United States. Rainfall and runoff data for small watersheds in Lake County collected between 1990 and 1995 were studied to develop equations for estimation of synthetic unit-hydrograph parameters on the basis of watershed and storm characteristics. The synthetic unit-hydrograph parameters of interest were the time of concentration (TC) and watershed-storage coefficient (R) for the Clark unit-hydrograph method, the unit-graph lag (UL) for the Soil Conservation Service (now known as the Natural Resources Conservation Service) dimensionless unit hydrograph, and the hydrograph-time lag (TL) for the linear-reservoir method for unit-hydrograph estimation. Data from 66 storms with effective-precipitation depths greater than 0.4 inches on 9 small watersheds (areas between 0.06 and 37 square miles (mi2)) were utilized to develop the estimation equations, and data from 11 storms on 8 of these watersheds were utilized to verify (test) the estimation equations. The synthetic unit-hydrograph parameters were determined by calibration using the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Flood Hydrograph Package HEC-1 (TC, R, and UL) or by manual analysis of the rainfall and run-off data (TL). The relation between synthetic unit-hydrograph parameters, and watershed and storm characteristics was determined by multiple linear regression of the logarithms of the parameters and characteristics. Separate sets of equations were developed with watershed area and main channel length as the starting parameters. Percentage of impervious cover, main channel slope, and depth of effective precipitation also were identified as important characteristics for estimation of synthetic unit-hydrograph parameters. The estimation equations utilizing area had multiple correlation coefficients of 0.873, 0.961, 0.968, and 0.963 for TC, R, UL, and TL, respectively, and the estimation equations utilizing main channel length had multiple correlation coefficients of 0.845, 0.957, 0.961, and 0.963 for TC, R, UL, and TL, respectively. Simulation of the measured hydrographs for the verification storms utilizing TC and R obtained from the estimation equations yielded good results without calibration. The peak discharge for 8 of the 11 storms was estimated within 25 percent and the time-to-peak discharge for 10 of the 11 storms was estimated within 20 percent. Thus, application of the estimation equations to determine synthetic unit-hydrograph parameters for design-storm simulation may result in reliable design hydrographs; as long as the physical characteristics of the watersheds under consideration are within the range of those for the watersheds in this study (area: 0.06-37 mi2, main channel length: 0.33-16.6 miles, main channel slope: 3.13-55.3 feet per mile, and percentage of impervious cover: 7.32-40.6 percent). The estimation equations are most reliable when applied to watersheds with areas less than 25 mi2.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2018

Water-quality response to changes in phosphorus loading of the Winnebago Pool Lakes, Wisconsin, with special emphasis on the effects of internal loading in a chain of shallow lakes

The Winnebago Pool is a chain of four shallow lakes (Lake Poygan, Lake Winneconne, Lake Butte des Morts, and Lake Winnebago) that are fed primarily by the Fox and Wolf Rivers, two large agriculturally dominated rivers in Wisconsin, United States. Because the lakes have received extensive phosphorus inputs from their watershed, they have become highly eutrophic with much phosphorus in the water column as well as trapped in their sediments. Each of the four Winnebago Pool lakes has been included on the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources impaired waters list because of their high total phosphorus concentrations, water-quality use restrictions, and excess algal growth. The study described in this report is part of a Total Maximum Daily Load investigation to determine what actions are needed to improve the water quality (trophic status) of these lakes and thus be able to be removed from the impaired waters list and restore their designated uses. As part of this study, data were collected to describe the existing water quality of the lakes, detailed phosphorus budgets were developed for each of the lakes to describe the different sources of the phosphorus, and two eutrophication models (BATHTUB and Jensen models) were used to determine how much of the phosphorus being input to the lakes needs to be reduced for the lakes to be removed from the impaired waters list and restore their designated uses. In-lake water-quality data indicated that each of the lakes had extensive vertical mixing that resulted in their water quality deteriorating throughout summer. Each of the lakes had mean summer total phosphorus concentrations exceeding 0.088 milligram per liter (mg/L), well above the 0.040 mg/L criterion for the lakes. Detailed phosphorus budgets for the lakes indicated that the primary sources of phosphorus were from their tributaries (for the most upstream lake in the Winnebago Pool–Lake Poygan) or from a combination of input from the upstream lakes and phosphorus release from the bottom sediment when only the summer months were considered (for the other three lakes). Model simulations with the BATHTUB and Jensen models indicated that (1) the lakes should have almost linear response in their total phosphorus concentrations to changes in their phosphorus inputs; (2) phosphorus inputs need to be reduced by about 60 percent to the Upper Pool Lakes and 69–73 percent to Lake Winnebago to reduce their mean summer total phosphorus concentrations to 0.040 mg/L; and (3) if all the anthropogenic phosphorus inputs to the lakes could be eliminated, their best possible mean summer total phosphorus concentrations should decrease to about 0.022–0.028 mg/L in the Upper Pool Lakes and to 0.032–0.033 mg/L in Lake Winnebago. The effects of any reduction in phosphorus loading will take many years (50 to more than 75 years) to be fully realized in lake water quality because of phosphorus release from the lake sediments. The effects of nutrient reductions in the watershed of a chain of lakes, such as the Winnebago Pool, gradually cascades down the chain, which has beneficial and detrimental effects. Any action made in the watershed of upstream lakes to reduce phosphorus inputs should improve the water quality of all downstream lakes; however, the upstream lakes delay the response in the downstream lakes, especially in lakes where internal phosphorus loading is important.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2017

Forecasting stream habitat and Brook Trout responses to climate change in Catoctin Mountain Park

Anticipating and mitigating the effects of climate change is a fundamental challenge for natural resource conservation. In this report, we respond to research needs identified by Catoctin Mountain Park (CATO) for native Brook Trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) conservation and management as part of the US Geological Survey (USGS) Natural Resources Preservation Program in FY15-16. We addressed three overarching research questions: (1) How will anticipated changes in air temperature affect stream habitats? (2) How will changes to stream habitat affect the distribution of Brook Trout? (3) Which stream segments are most and least vulnerable to the effects of climate change? First, we surveyed Brook Trout abundance and fish community composition using electrofishing techniques within three watersheds: Owens Creek, upper Big Hunting Creek, and Blue Blazes Creek (a tributary to Big Hunting Creek). Second, we deployed a network of stream temperature gages to assess spatial variation in stream temperature and groundwater (GW) influence. Third, we used modeling techniques to forecast future stream temperatures that account for GW influences and air temperature scenarios. Fish sampling detected 13 species and 15,345 individual fish, the majority of which were Blacknose Dace (60%), Blue Ridge Sculpin (26%), and Brook Trout (6%). Brook Trout were not observed in Blue Blazes Creek and exhibited higher densities in Owens Creek than upper Big Hunting Creek (average densities = 19 fish/100 m and 4 fish/100 m, respectively). In contrast, Brown Trout were present in Blue Blazes Creek and exhibited greater density in Blue Blazes Creek than either Owens Creek or upper Big Hunting Creek (average densities = 3.0 fish/100 m, 0.3 fish/100 m, and 1.7 fish/100 m, respectively). Brown Trout occurred in sympatry with Brook Trout in Owens Creek and upper Big Hunting Creek, but appeared to have replaced Brook Trout in Blue Blazes Creek. Our fish surveys also revealed important locations for Brook Trout reproduction and young-of-year (YOY) dispersal within the Owens Creek watershed. Our study also revealed surprising differences in the distribution of Blue Ridge Sculpin among CATO streams. This species was abundant in Owens Creek (average density = 83 fish/100 m) but was less common in Blue Blazes Creek (average density = 12 fish/100 m) and was not detected in upper Big Hunting Creek. Histological examination of several specimens from Blue Blazes Creek by V. Blazer at the USGS Leetown Science Center revealed the presence of a novel parasite (Dermosystidium sp.) which has been linked to fish population declines elsewhere (Blazer et al. 2016). The parasite was not detected in Blue Ridge Sculpin samples from Owens Creek, and all trout appeared to be uninfected. Our survey results suggest that Blue Ridge Sculpin have been extirpated from upper Big Hunting Creek and have not recolonized from downstream source populations due to the fish passage barrier of Cunningham Falls. We recommend additional research to (1) evaluate the feasibility of reintroducing Blue Ridge Sculpin into upper Big Hunting Creek and (2) continue monitoring the distribution and potential spread of Dermocystidium in downstream waters. Stream temperatures ranged from 9.6 – 27.6 ºC during baseflow conditions in 2015 and 2016. Sites within upper Big Hunting Creek were consistently warmer than in Owens Creek or Blue Blazes Creek, suggesting an effect of headwater ponds outside CATO on upper Big Hunting Creek temperatures. For instance, in 2016 the maximum observed temperature in upper Big Hunting Creek was 27.6 ºC whereas Owens Creek reached a maximum of 23.7 ºC that year. Stream temperature data also revealed that 2016 was warmer than 2015 throughout the study area but did not exceed thermal tolerance limits for Brook Trout in either year. We estimated the influence of GW on stream temperatures using a statistical modeling approach based on the relationship between daily mean air temperature and stream temperature over time. Results indicated that effects of GW were generally stronger in the Owens Creek watershed than in Blue Blazes or upper Big Hunting Creek. However, we detected substantial spatial variation in GW influence among Owens Creek sites, with stream temperatures at some locations showing relatively little GW influence and others showing very strong influences (and correspondingly small influence of daily mean air temperatures). Although incoming lateral seeps were detected in upper Big Hunting Creek (D. Ferrier, Hood College, personal communication), the strongest effects of GW in the study area were due to GW upwelling within portions of the Owens Creek watershed (i.e., Tributary C in Figure 4) where we also observed high numbers of Brook Trout juveniles. Our results therefore identified potential high-priority areas for Brook Trout conservation in CATO. Finally, we modeled future stream temperatures based on scenarios characterizing GW sensitivity to air temperature and future air temperature increases. Stream temperature forecasts revealed important differences in habitat suitability for Brook Trout within and among watersheds. Big Hunting Creek sites were generally more sensitive to air temperature increases than sites in Owens Creek or Blue Blazes Creek. For instance, an increase in mean annual air temperature of 1.5 ºC (lowest level evaluated) exceeded thermal thresholds for Brook Trout in the majority of sites within that watershed, regardless of GW influence levels. In contrast, an air temperature increase of 1.5 ºC did not exceed thermal thresholds for Brook Trout in Owens Creek. However, modeled air temperature increases of 5 ºC resulted in a loss of Brook Trout thermal suitability throughout the study area. Model results revealed spatially patchy responses to air temperature increases that could provide an early-warning system for trout monitoring designs in CATO.

Maryland↗

USGS2007

Comparison of methods for estimating flood magnitudes on small streams in Georgia

The U.S. Geological Survey has collected flood data for small, natural streams at many sites throughout Georgia during the past 20 years. Flood-frequency relations were developed for these data using four methods: (1) observed (log-Pearson Type III analysis) data, (2) rainfall-runoff model, (3) regional regression equations, and (4) map-model combination. The results of the latter three methods were compared to the analyses of the observed data in order to quantify the differences in the methods and determine if the differences are statistically significant.

Water Resources Bulletin↗

USGS2017

A proposal for amending administrative law to facilitate adaptive management

In this article we examine how federal agencies use adaptive management. In order for federal agencies to implement adaptive management more successfully, administrative law must adapt to adaptive management, and we propose changes in administrative law that will help to steer the current process out of a dead end. Adaptive management is a form of structured decision making that is widely used in natural resources management. It involves specific steps integrated in an iterative process for adjusting management actions as new information becomes available. Theoretical requirements for adaptive management notwithstanding, federal agency decision making is subject to the requirements of the federal Administrative Procedure Act, and state agencies are subject to the states' parallel statutes. We argue that conventional administrative law has unnecessarily shackled effective use of adaptive management. We show that through a specialized 'adaptive management track' of administrative procedures, the core values of administrative law—especially public participation, judicial review, and finality— can be implemented in ways that allow for more effective adaptive management. We present and explain draft model legislation (the Model Adaptive Management Procedure Act) that would create such a track for the specific types of agency decision making that could benefit from adaptive management.

Environmental Research Letters↗

USGS2012

Approaches in highly parameterized inversion-PESTCommander, a graphical user interface for file and run management across networks

Models of environmental systems have become increasingly complex, incorporating increasingly large numbers of parameters in an effort to represent physical processes on a scale approaching that at which they occur in nature. Consequently, the inverse problem of parameter estimation (specifically, model calibration) and subsequent uncertainty analysis have become increasingly computation-intensive endeavors. Fortunately, advances in computing have made computational power equivalent to that of dozens to hundreds of desktop computers accessible through a variety of alternate means: modelers have various possibilities, ranging from traditional Local Area Networks (LANs) to cloud computing. Commonly used parameter estimation software is well suited to take advantage of the availability of such increased computing power. Unfortunately, logistical issues become increasingly important as an increasing number and variety of computers are brought to bear on the inverse problem. To facilitate efficient access to disparate computer resources, the PESTCommander program documented herein has been developed to provide a Graphical User Interface (GUI) that facilitates the management of model files ("file management") and remote launching and termination of "slave" computers across a distributed network of computers ("run management"). In version 1.0 described here, PESTCommander can access and ascertain resources across traditional Windows LANs: however, the architecture of PESTCommander has been developed with the intent that future releases will be able to access computing resources (1) via trusted domains established in Wide Area Networks (WANs) in multiple remote locations and (2) via heterogeneous networks of Windows- and Unix-based operating systems. The design of PESTCommander also makes it suitable for extension to other computational resources, such as those that are available via cloud computing. Version 1.0 of PESTCommander was developed primarily to work with the parameter estimation software PEST; the discussion presented in this report focuses on the use of the PESTCommander together with Parallel PEST. However, PESTCommander can be used with a wide variety of programs and models that require management, distribution, and cleanup of files before or after model execution. In addition to its use with the Parallel PEST program suite, discussion is also included in this report regarding the use of PESTCommander with the Global Run Manager GENIE, which was developed simultaneously with PESTCommander.

Techniques and Methods↗