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At least 901 records · Page 50Linked to original sources
USGS2016

Development of working hypotheses linking management of the Missouri River to population dynamics of Scaphirhynchus albus (pallid sturgeon)

This report documents a process of filtering of hypotheses that relate Missouri River Scaphirhynchus albus (pallid sturgeon) population dynamics to management actions including flow alterations, channel reconfigurations, and pallid sturgeon population augmentation. The filtering process was a partnership among U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to contribute to the Missouri River Recovery Management Plan process. The objective of the filtering process was to produce a set of hypotheses with high relevance to pallid sturgeon population dynamics and decision making on the Missouri River. The Missouri River Pallid Sturgeon Effects Analysis team filtered hundreds of potential hypotheses implicit in conceptual ecological models to develop a set of 40 candidate dominant hypotheses that were identified by experts as being important in pallid sturgeon population dynamics. Using a modified Delphi process and additional expert opinion, the team reduced this set of hypotheses to 23 working dominant hypotheses. We then matched the 23 hypotheses with management actions that could influence the biotic outcomes, resulting in as many as 176 potential effects between management actions and pallid sturgeon in the Missouri River. This number was consolidated to a candidate set of 53 working management hypotheses because some management actions applied to multiple life stages of the pallid sturgeon. We used an additional round of expert surveys to identify a set of 30 working management hypotheses. Finally, the set of working management hypotheses was filtered by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Missouri River Recovery Program for actions that were within the agency’s authority and jurisdiction. This round resulted in a set of 21 hypotheses for initial modeling of linkages from management to pallid sturgeon population responses. The initial set of candidate hypotheses provides a useful starting point for quantitative modeling and adaptive management of the river and species. We anticipate that hypotheses will change from the set of working management hypotheses as adaptive management progresses. More importantly, hypotheses that have been filtered out of our multistep process are still being considered. These filtered hypotheses are archived and if existing hypotheses are determined to be inadequate to explain observed population dynamics, new hypotheses can be created or filtered hypotheses can be reinstated.

Missouri River Basin↗
USGS2020

A decision framework to analyze tide-gate options for restoration of the Herring River Estuary, Massachusetts

The collective set of decisions involved with the restoration of degraded wetlands is often more complex than considering only ecological responses and outcomes. Restoration is commonly driven by a complex interaction of social, economic, and ecological factors representing the mandate of resource stewards and the values of stakeholders. The authors worked with the Herring River Restoration Committee (HRRC) to develop a decision framework to understand the implications of complex tradeoffs and to guide decision making for the restoration of the 1,100-acre Herring River estuary within Cape Cod National Seashore, which has been restricted from tidal influence for more than 100 years. The HRRC represents decision maker and stakeholder interests in the restoration process. For a 25-year planning horizon, decisions involve the rate at which newly constructed water-control structures allow tidal exchange, and the timing and location of implementing numerous secondary management options. Decisions affect multiple stakeholders, including residents of two adjacent towns who value the watershed for numerous benefits and whose economy relies on seasonal activities and aquaculture. System response to management decisions is characterized by a high degree of uncertainty and risk with positive and negative outcomes possible. Decision policies will affect biophysical (for example, sediment transport, discharge of fecal coliform bacteria) and ecological (for example, vegetation response, fish passage, effects on shellfish) processes, as well as socioeconomic interests (for example, effects on property, viewscapes, recreation). The framework provides a structured approach for evaluating tradeoffs among multiple objectives (ecological and social) while appropriately characterizing relevant uncertainties and accounting for levels of risk tolerances and the values of decision makers and stakeholders. Consequences of tide-gate management options are predicted using a range of methods from quantitative physical process models to elicited expert judgement. The decision framework is presented, and the software developed to implement the tradeoff analysis is introduced. The results from an initial prototype analysis using a software application developed for analyses of tradeoffs and of sensitivity of the decision to risk and uncertainty are presented. The next step is to use the decision-support application to analyze options using improved predictions.

Massachusetts↗
USGS2008

Modeling and dynamic monitoring of ecosystem performance in the Yukon River Basin

Central Alaska is ecologically sensitive and experiencing stress in response to marked regional warming. Resource managers would benefit from an improved ability to monitor ecosystem processes in response to climate change, fire, insect damage, and management policies and to predict responses to future climate scenarios. We have developed a method for analyzing ecosystem performance as represented by the growing season integral of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), which is a measure of greenness that can be interpreted in terms of plant growth or photosynthetic activity (gross primary productivity). The approach illustrates the status and trends of ecosystem changes and separates the influences of climate and local site conditions from the influences of disturbances and land management. We emphasize the ability to quantify ecosystem processes, not simply changes in land cover, across the entire period of the remote sensing archive (Wylie and others, 2008). The method builds upon remotely sensed measures of vegetation greenness for each growing season. By itself, however, a time series of greenness often reflects annual climate variations in temperature and precipitation. Our method seeks to remove the influence of climate so that changes in underlying ecological conditions are identified and quantified. We define an "expected ecosystem performance" to represent the greenness response expected in a particular year given the climate of that year. We distinguish "performance anomalies" as cases where the ecosystem response is significantly different from the expected ecosystem performance. Maps of the performance anomalies (fig. 1) and trends in the anomalies give valuable information on the ecosystems for land managers and policy makers at a resolution of 1 km to 250 m.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2017

The waterfall paradox: How knickpoints disconnect hillslope and channel processes, isolating salmonid populations in ideal habitats

Waterfalls create barriers to fish migration, yet hundreds of isolated salmonid populations exist above barriers and have persisted for thousands of years in steep mountainous terrain. Ecological theory indicates that small isolated populations in disturbance-prone landscapes are at greatest risk of extirpation because immigration and recolonization are not possible. On the contrary, many above-barrier populations are currently thriving while their downstream counterparts are dwindling. This quandary led us to explore geomorphic knickpoints as a mechanism for disconnecting hillslope and channel processes by limiting channel incision and decreasing the pace of base-level lowering. Using LiDAR from the Oregon Coast Range, we found gentler channel gradients, wider valleys, lower gradient hillslopes, and less shallow landslide potential in an above-barrier catchment compared to a neighboring catchment devoid of persistent knickpoints. Based on this unique geomorphic template, above-barrier channel networks are less prone to debris flows and other episodic sediment fluxes. These above-barrier catchments also have greater resiliency to flooding, owing to wider valleys with greater floodplain connectivity. Habitat preference models further indicate that salmonid habitat is present in greater quantity and quality in these above-barrier networks. Therefore the paradox of the persistence of small isolated fish populations may be facilitated by a geomorphic mechanism that both limits their connectivity to larger fish populations yet dampens the effect of disturbance by decreasing connections between hillslope and channel processes above geomorphic knickpoints.

Geomorphology↗
USGS2010

Linking microbial and ecosystem ecology using ecological stoichiometry: a synthesis of conceptual and empirical approaches

Currently, one of the biggest challenges in microbial and ecosystem ecology is to develop conceptual models that organize the growing body of information on environmental microbiology into a clear mechanistic framework with a direct link to ecosystem processes. Doing so will enable development of testable hypotheses to better direct future research and increase understanding of key constraints on biogeochemical networks. Although the understanding of phenotypic and genotypic diversity of microorganisms in the environment is rapidly accumulating, how controls on microbial physiology ultimately affect biogeochemical fluxes remains poorly understood. We propose that insight into constraints on biogeochemical cycles can be achieved by a more rigorous evaluation of microbial community biomass composition within the context of ecological stoichiometry. Multiple recent studies have pointed to microbial biomass stoichiometry as an important determinant of when microorganisms retain or recycle mineral nutrients. We identify the relevant cellular components that most likely drive changes in microbial biomass stoichiometry by defining a conceptual model rooted in ecological stoichiometry. More importantly, we show how X-ray microanalysis (XRMA), nanoscale secondary ion mass spectroscopy (NanoSIMS), Raman microspectroscopy, and in situ hybridization techniques (for example, FISH) can be applied in concert to allow for direct empirical evaluation of the proposed conceptual framework. This approach links an important piece of the ecological literature, ecological stoichiometry, with the molecular front of the microbial revolution, in an attempt to provide new insight into how microbial physiology could constrain ecosystem processes.

Ecosystems↗
USGS2017

Impacts of coastal land use and shoreline armoring on estuarine ecosystems: An introduction to a special issue

The nearshore land-water interface is an important ecological zone that faces anthropogenic pressure from development in coastal regions throughout the world. Coastal waters and estuaries like Chesapeake Bay receive and process land discharges loaded with anthropogenic nutrients and other pollutants that cause eutrophication, hypoxia, and other damage to shallow-water ecosystems. In addition, shorelines are increasingly armored with bulkhead (seawall), riprap, and other structures to protect human infrastructure against the threats of sea-level rise, storm surge, and erosion. Armoring can further influence estuarine and nearshore marine ecosystem functions by degrading water quality, spreading invasive species, and destroying ecologically valuable habitat. These detrimental effects on ecosystem function have ramifications for ecologically and economically important flora and fauna. This special issue of Estuaries and Coasts explores the interacting effects of coastal land use and shoreline armoring on estuarine and coastal marine ecosystems. The majority of papers focus on the Chesapeake Bay region, USA, where 50 major tributaries and an extensive watershed (~ 167,000 km 2 ), provide an ideal model to examine the impacts of human activities at scales ranging from the local shoreline to the entire watershed. The papers consider the influence of watershed land use and natural versus armored shorelines on ecosystem properties and processes as well as on key natural resources.

Estuaries and Coasts↗
USGS2014

Barcodes are a useful tool for labeling and tracking ecological samples

Barcodes are used to label and track just about everything these days. Look around your office, in your medicine cabinet, at the package you just received in the mail, or on the shelves of any shop in town, and you will immediately grasp the ubiquity of their use. Interestingly, railroads and supermarkets were the early pioneers of barcode development: the former needing a way to track railway car location and ownership on a national scale, the latter needing a way to track a diverse array of products and to decrease checkout times (Nelson 1997). Barcodes first came to use in the sciences via the field of medicine, and the medical literature contains hundreds of publications describing how this technology has reduced errors in patient specimen identification and handling, where error mitigation is crucial. In short, barcodes have been adopted by many industries, and in many fields they are now synonymous with asset tracking. In spite of their potential to efficiently organize “assets” (i.e., samples) and minimize human error, the use of barcodes has yet to gain widespread application in ecology. In an age where students take notes on laptops instead of paper, and where “text messaging” involves a smartphone rather than a ball‐point pen, why do otherwise tech‐savvy ecologists persist in hand‐labeling samples? Why do we repeatedly transcribe long and unique identifiers at each step in the process of sample analysis, thereby wasting time and creating opportunities for transcription errors and data loss? Why are most sample storage areas only successfully navigable by the lab manager who personally shelved the samples? In the case of our large ecology lab—and, we suspect, in many others as well—the answer to these questions was perpetually, “bar‐coding won't be worth the trouble.” Recently, however, we realized this was no longer a sufficient answer when we started a new research project that involved collecting an additional thousands of samples each year; we decided to embrace the tangible benefits of an electronic labeling system, and implemented barcoding in our lab. To be clear, the use of barcoding in ecology is not completely novel, and there have been early adopters of this technology. For example, the Cedar Creek Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) site has been using barcodes since at least the mid‐1990s to track the large number of samples collected in their long‐term experimental grasslands (T. A. Kennedy, personal observation ). Overall, however, Cedar Creek is an outlier: in informal e‐mail surveys of LTER sites, only two of eight respondents used barcodes for sample identification or tracking, and even then their use was generally limited to certain samples or certain stages of sample analysis. Our objective in this article is to use our lab as a case study to highlight the potential of barcodes to simplify numerous aspects of sample collection and processing.

Arizona↗
USGS2026

Connecting and coordinating conservation action across landscapes through regional planning processes and syntheses

Modern threats to conservation are often global; however, relevant conservation decisions and actions typically occur within local jurisdictions. The socio-ecological complexity of these problems requires collaboration across large landscapes, diverse community interests, and geopolitical boundaries, yet a lack of interoperability of planning products among decision makers, jurisdictions, and objectives impedes collaboration. Here, we provide a working model for the collaborative, iterative development of a landscape conservation design (LCD) in the Midwest region of the United States, the Midwest Conservation Blueprint, and demonstrate its applicability to the coordination of voluntary conservation actions and investments across jurisdictional boundaries. We used spatial prioritization software to synthesize over 20 datasets to develop a basemap of priority lands and waters for conservation across a diverse set of societal and ecological values (e.g., water quality, biodiversity, recreation). The Midwest Conservation Blueprint is a living plan, updated annually based on improvements in underlying data, understanding of local conditions, and public input. Landscape-scale planning is not designed to replace local knowledge or supersede decision-making authorities. However, by synthesizing existing data that represent diverse socio-ecological values and planning at a broader scale, the Midwest Conservation Blueprint documents where there are shared priorities and opportunities for collaborative landscape conservation.

Midwest↗
USGS2010

Predicting performance for ecological restoration: A case study using Spartina altemiflora

The success of population-based ecological restoration relies on the growth and reproductive performance of selected donor materials, whether consisting of whole plants or seed. Accurately predicting performance requires an understanding of a variety of underlying processes, particularly gene flow and selection, which can be measured, at least in part, using surrogates such as neutral marker genetic distances and simple latitudinal effects. Here we apply a structural equation modeling approach to understanding and predicting performance in a widespread salt marsh grass, Spartina alterniflora, commonly used for ecological restoration throughout its native range in North America. We collected source materials from throughout this range, consisting of eight clones each from 23 populations, for transplantation to a common garden site in coastal Louisiana and monitored their performance. We modeled performance as a latent process described by multiple indicator variables (e.g., clone diameter, stem number) and estimated direct and indirect influences of geographic and genetic distances on performance. Genetic distances were determined by comparison of neutral molecular markers with those from a local population at the common garden site. Geographic distance metrics included dispersal distance (the minimum distance over water between donor and experimental sites) and latitude. Model results indicate direct effects of genetic distance and latitude on performance variation among the donor sites. Standardized effect strengths indicate that performance was roughly twice as sensitive to variation in genetic distance as to latitudinal variation. Dispersal distance had an indirect influence on performance through effects on genetic distance, indicating a typical pattern of genetic isolation by distance. Latitude also had an indirect effect on genetic distance through its linear relationship with dispersal distance. Three performance indicators had significant loadings on performance alone (mean clone diameter, mean number of stems, mean number of inflorescences), while the performance indicators mean stem height and mean stem width were also influenced by latitude. We suggest that dispersal distance and latitude should provide an adequate means of predicting performance in future S. alterniflora restorations and propose a maximum sampling distance of 300 km (holding latitude constant) to avoid the sampling of inappropriate ecotypes. ?? 2010 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2015

Caveats for correlative species distribution modeling

Correlative species distribution models are becoming commonplace in the scientific literature and public outreach products, displaying locations, abundance, or suitable environmental conditions for harmful invasive species, threatened and endangered species, or species of special concern. Accurate species distribution models are useful for efficient and adaptive management and conservation, research, and ecological forecasting. Yet, these models are often presented without fully examining or explaining the caveats for their proper use and interpretation and are often implemented without understanding the limitations and assumptions of the model being used. We describe common pitfalls, assumptions, and caveats of correlative species distribution models to help novice users and end users better interpret these models. Four primary caveats corresponding to different phases of the modeling process, each with supporting documentation and examples, include: (1) all sampling data are incomplete and potentially biased; (2) predictor variables must capture distribution constraints; (3) no single model works best for all species, in all areas, at all spatial scales, and over time; and (4) the results of species distribution models should be treated like a hypothesis to be tested and validated with additional sampling and modeling in an iterative process.

Ecological Informatics↗
USGS2013

Valley plugs, land use, and phytogeomorphic response: Chapter 14

Anthropogenic alteration of fluvial systems can disrupt functional processes that provide valuable ecosystem services. Channelization alters fluvial parameters and the connectivity of river channels to their floodplains which is critical for productivity, nutrient cycling, flood control, and biodiversity. The effects of channelization can be exacerbated by local geology and land-use activities, resulting in dramatic geomorphic readjustments including the formation of valley plugs. Considerable variation in the response of abiotic processes, including surface hydrology, subsurface hydrology, and sedimentation dynamics, to channelization and the formation of valley plugs. Altered abiotic processes associated with these geomorphic features and readjustments influence biotic processes including species composition, abundance, and successional processes. Considerable interest exists for restoring altered fluvial systems and their floodplains because of their social and ecological importance. Understanding abiotic and biotic responses of channelization and valley-plug formation within the context of the watershed is essential to successful restoration. This chapter focuses on the primary causes of valley-plug formation, resulting fluvial-geomorphic responses, vegetation responses, and restoration and research needs for these systems.

Book chapter↗
USGS2011

Spatial and seasonal variability of dissolved methylmercury in two stream basins in the Eastern United States

We assessed methylmercury (MeHg) concentrations across multiple ecological scales in the Edisto (South Carolina) and Upper Hudson (New York) River basins. Out-of-channel wetland/floodplain environments were primary sources of filtered MeHg (F-MeHg) to the stream habitat in both systems. Shallow, open-water areas in both basins exhibited low F-MeHg concentrations and decreasing F-MeHg mass flux. Downstream increases in out-of-channel wetlands/floodplains and the absence of impoundments result in high MeHg throughout the Edisto. Despite substantial wetlands coverage and elevated F-MeHg concentrations at the headwater margins, numerous impoundments on primary stream channels favor spatial variability and lower F-MeHg concentrations in the Upper Hudson. The results indicated that, even in geographically, climatically, and ecologically diverse streams, production in wetland/floodplain areas, hydrologic transport to the stream aquatic environment, and conservative/nonconservative attenuation processes in open water areas are fundamental controls on dissolved MeHg concentrations and, by extension, MeHg availability for potential biotic uptake.

New York, South Carolina↗
USGS2024

The effect of drying boreal lakes on plants, soils, and microbial communities in lake margin habitats

Decadal scale lake drying in interior Alaska results in lake margin colonization by willow shrub and graminoid vegetation, but the effects of these changes on plant production, biodiversity, soil properties, and soil microbial communities are not well known. We studied changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) and nitrogen (N) storage, plant and microbial community composition, and soil microbial activities in drying and non-drying lakes in the Yukon Flats National Wildlife Refuge. Historic changes in lake area were determined using Landsat imagery. Results showed that SOC storage in drying lake margins declined by 0.13 kg C m −2 yr −1 over 30 years of exposure of lake sediments, with no significant change in soil N. Lake drying resulted in an increase in graminoid and shrub aboveground net primary production (ANPP, +3% yr −1 ) with little change in plant functional composition. Increases in ANPP were similar in magnitude (but opposite in sign) to losses in SOC over a 30-year drying trend. Potential decomposition rates and soil enzyme activities were lower in drying lake margins compared to stable lake margins, possibly due to high salinities in drying lake margin soils. Microbial communities shifted in response to changing plant communities, although they still retained a legacy of the previous plant community. Understanding how changing lake hydrology impacts the ecology and biogeochemistry of lake margin terrestrial ecosystems is an underexamined phenomenon with large impacts to landscape processes.

Alaska↗
USGS2006

The future of imaging spectroscopy - Prospective technologies and applications

Spectroscopy has existed for more than three centuries now. Nonetheless, significant scientific advances have been achieved. We discuss the history of spectroscopy in relation to emerging technologies and applications. Advanced focal plane arrays, optical design, and intelligent on-board logic are prime prospective technologies. Scalable approaches in pre-processing of imaging spectrometer data will receive additional focus. Finally, we focus on new applications monitoring transitional ecological zones, where human impact and disturbance have highest impact as well as in monitoring changes in our natural resources and environment We conclude that imaging spectroscopy enables mapping of biophysical and biochemical variables of the Earth's surface and atmospheric composition with unprecedented accuracy.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2024

Human activity drives establishment, but not invasion, of non-native plants on islands

Island ecosystems are particularly susceptible to the impacts of invasive species. Many rare and endangered species that are endemic to islands are negatively affected by invasions. Past studies have shown that the establishment of non-native species on islands is related to native plant richness, habitat heterogeneity, island age, human activity, and climate. However, it is unclear whether the factors promoting establishment (i.e. the formation of self-sustaining populations) also promote subsequent invasion (i.e. spread and negative impacts). Using data from 4308 non-native plant species across 46 islands and archipelagos globally, we examined which biogeographic characteristics influence established and invasive plant richness using generalized linear models nested within piecewise structural equation models. Our results indicate that anthropogenic land use (i.e. human modification) is strongly associated with establishment but not invasion, that climate (maximum monthly temperature) is strongly associated with invasion but not establishment, and that habitat heterogeneity (represented by maximum elevation and island area) is strongly associated with both establishment and invasion. Island isolation explains native plant richness well, but is not associated with established and invasive plant richness, likely due to anthropogenic introductions. We conclude that anthropogenic land use on islands is likely to be a proxy for the number of introductions (i.e. propagule pressure), which is more important for establishment than invasion. Conversely, islands with more diverse habitats and favorable (warm) climate conditions are likely to contain more available niche space (i.e. ‘vacant niches’) which create opportunities for both establishment and invasion. By evaluating multiple stages of the invasion process, we differentiate between the biogeographic characteristics that influence plant establishment (which does not necessarily lead to ecological impacts) versus those that influence subsequent plant invasion (which does lead to negative impacts).

Ecography↗
USGS2020

Assessing the risks posed by SARS-CoV-2 in and via North American bats — Decision framing and rapid risk assessment

The novel β-coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, may pose a threat to North American bat populations if bats are exposed to the virus through interaction with humans, if the virus can subsequently infect bats and be transmitted among them, and if the virus causes morbidity or mortality in bats. Further, if SARS-CoV-2 became established in bat populations, it could possibly serve as a source for new infection in humans, domesticated animals, or other wild animals. Wildlife management agencies in the United States are concerned about these potential risks and have begun to issue guidance regarding work that brings humans into contact with bats, but decision making is difficult because of the high degree of uncertainty about many of the relevant processes that could lead to virus transmission and establishment. The risk assessment described in this report was undertaken to provide management agencies with an understanding of the likelihood that the various steps in the causal pathways would lead to SARS-CoV-2 infection of North American bats from people. This assessment focused on the active season for bats in the temperate zone of North America (April 15 through November 15), and used Myotis lucifugus (little brown bats) as a surrogate species. At the time of this work (April 2020), no empirical data about the effects of SARS-CoV-2 on North American bats were available, so a formal process of expert judgment was used to elicit estimates of the underlying parameters. Twelve experts in bat ecology, epidemiology, virology, and wildlife disease from the United States, United Kingdom, and Australia participated in the elicitation. A Monte Carlo simulation model was used to integrate the parameter estimates elicited from the experts and to predict the likelihood of exposure and infection in bats through a series of transmission pathways, with particular attention to capturing uncertainty in the predictions. Given the current state of knowledge as expressed by the expert panel, the results of this assessment indicate that there is a non-negligible risk of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from humans to bats. For example, if a research scientist were shedding SARS-CoV-2 virus while handling bats under the field protocols used in North America prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, the risk model indicates that 50 percent (uncertainty, 15–84 percent) of those bats could be exposed to virus, and 17 percent (uncertainty, 3–51 percent) could become infected. Use of personal protective equipment, especially a respirator, is expected to reduce the exposure risk. The expert panel estimated that exposure risk from research scientists could be reduced 94–96 percent (uncertainty, 86–99 percent) through proper use of appropriate N95 respirators (a type of mechanical filter worn over the nose and mouth), dedicated clothing (such as Tyvek coveralls), and gloves. Should any North American bats become infected with SARS-CoV-2, the expert panel estimated that there is an approximately 33-percent chance the virus could spread within a bat population. This study, conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, identified several critical uncertainties that could affect the estimate of risks associated with SARS-CoV-2 entering bat populations—notably, the underlying probability that a human would be shedding virus while working with bats, the likelihood of the virus replicating in bat tissue, and the likelihood of transmission of the virus within bat populations. Ongoing empirical work during May–October 2020 may shed light on these issues. Follow-up work is needed to better understand the probability of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to bats from the general public; the manner in which the probabilities of exposure, infection, and transmission would differ during hibernation compared to the breeding season; and the likelihood of important effects, like morbidity and mortality in bats, the possibility of zoonosis from a North American bat reservoir, and effects of and on other wildlife.

North America↗
USGS2019

Multi-resource analysis: A proof of concept study of natural resource tradeoffs in the Piceance Basin, Colorado, using the net resources assessment (NetRA) decision support tool

Executive Summary The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is developing a multi-resource analysis (MRA) line of products to inform land-use decision makers. Specifically, MRA products will integrate scientific information, include considerations for natural resource interrelations, and quantify the effects of resource management decisions in biophysical, economic, and societal terms. As part of the establishment of the MRA, the USGS, in collaboration with the University of New Mexico, has developed the Net Resources Assessment (NetRA) decision support tool. As a proof of concept analysis, the NetRA was applied to the Piceance basin in Colorado in a hypothetical example to illustrate how resource managers could use the NetRA to consider tradeoffs of natural resources among alternative development plans and land cover patterns within a geographic region. The NetRA is a policy-relevant approach to assess the availability of multiple natural resources. It is an analytical toolset that may be used to examine the spatiotemporal relations between development of energy and mineral resources and delivery of biological natural resources. The NetRA operates at multiple map scales and contains a set of integrated, compatible submodels with specific data requirements for natural resource stocks, engineering economics, biophysical, and ecological data for ecosystem services stocks, market prices, regulations, and nonmarket values. The NetRA includes an explicit process to consider the interdependence between development and conservation, which is a crucial consideration in land-management and land-use decisions. The NetRA is used to estimate an expected net resource value (NRV). The NRV is the expected, present value, economic benefit from the extraction of a resource (for example, natural gas) minus the total cost of production, which is the aggregation of the development, production, and social costs. Social costs include private costs plus any external costs. There can be external social benefits associated with natural gas production, such as increased demand for locally produced goods and increased employment in the local area through backward and forward linkages of natural gas production. The NRV is used to compare development outcomes (scenarios) from a range of exploration and development plans for cumulative energy production. The Piceance basin application of the NetRA uses the NRV to assess the tradeoff between continuous natural gas extraction and the effects to the local populations of Odocoileus hemionus (mule deer) and aquatic species and to consumptive water uses for an area the size and resolution of a USGS energy resource assessment unit. In the proof of concept simulation, the 2.9-square-mile-area of USGS oil and gas assessment unit 50200263 (Piceance basin continuous gas unit of the Mesaverde Total Petroleum System) was gridded into 588 cells. From this area, seven clusters with potential for development and three that cannot be developed were identified; the three clusters that cannot be developed were identified as wilderness study areas, areas of critical environmental concern, and national forests. On the basis of these criteria, there are 118 cells unsuitable for development in the oil and gas assessment unit: 84 are in national forests, 23 are areas of critical environmental concern, and 11 are wilderness study areas. The remaining cells in the oil and gas assessment unit can be developed on both private and public lands. Two scenarios were considered that are distinguished as plan 1 and plan 2. Plan 1 keeps the amount of land disturbance unchanged and limits the number of development locations to 140 grid cells for the production period, which constrains the amount of the energy resources available for development; the plan requires the usage of the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) unsuitability criteria. Plan 2 also limits the number of development locations to 140 grid cells for the production period but provides a constant volume of energy production by increasing the density of well pads within the cells. The effects of plan 2 to the NRV when there are five wells per pad and five pads per square mile happen mostly in the first 5 years of development, even though the effects on the population of mule deer continue in later years. This outcome is the result of the upfront development and investment costs and the initial effect to the ecosystem services.

Colorado↗
USGS2016

Model calibration criteria for estimating ecological flow characteristics

Quantification of streamflow characteristics in ungauged catchments remains a challenge. Hydrological modeling is often used to derive flow time series and to calculate streamflow characteristics for subsequent applications that may differ from those envisioned by the modelers. While the estimation of model parameters for ungauged catchments is a challenging research task in itself, it is important to evaluate whether simulated time series preserve critical aspects of the streamflow hydrograph. To address this question, seven calibration objective functions were evaluated for their ability to preserve ecologically relevant streamflow characteristics of the average annual hydrograph using a runoff model, HBV-light, at 27 catchments in the southeastern United States. Calibration trials were repeated 100 times to reduce parameter uncertainty effects on the results, and 12 ecological flow characteristics were computed for comparison. Our results showed that the most suitable calibration strategy varied according to streamflow characteristic. Combined objective functions generally gave the best results, though a clear underprediction bias was observed. The occurrence of low prediction errors for certain combinations of objective function and flow characteristic suggests that (1) incorporating multiple ecological flow characteristics into a single objective function would increase model accuracy, potentially benefitting decision-making processes; and (2) there may be a need to have different objective functions available to address specific applications of the predicted time series.

Book chapter↗