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Project Planning for Cougar Dam during 2010

Cougar Dam is a 158 m-tall, rock fill dam located about 63 km east of Springfield, Oregon. Completed in 1963, the dam is owned and operated by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE). It impounds Cougar Reservoir, which is 9.7 km long, has a surface area of 518 ha, and is predominately used for flood control. The pool elevation typically ranges from a maximum conservation pool of 515 m (1,690 ft) National Geodetic Vertical Datum (NGVD) in summer to a minimum flood control elevation of 467 m (1,532 ft NGVD) in winter. The reservoir thermally stratifies in the summer, has an average depth of 37 m, and holds 153,500 acre-feet when full. Cougar Dam is located on the South Fork of the McKenzie River 7 km upstream from the mainstem McKenzie River, a tributary of the Willamette River. The McKenzie River Basin basin supports the largest remaining population of wild spawning spring Chinook salmon in the Willamette River Basin (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; NOAA, 2008). Cougar Dam and others were collectively deemed to cause jeopardy to the sustainability of anadromous fish stocks in the Willamette River Basin (NOAA, 2008). Prior to dam construction, as many as 805 redds were observed in the South Fork of the McKenzie River (Willis and others, 1960) and it is estimated that 40 km of spawning habitat were lost when access was blocked after dam construction. The 2008 Willamette Biological Opinion (BIOP) requires improvements to operations and structures to reduce impacts on Upper Willamette River (UWR) Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and UWR steelhead (O. mykiss; NOAA, 2008). In 2010, an adult fish collection facility was completed below Cougar Dam to collect returning adult salmon for transport to spawning habitats above the dam. Before that time, returning adult spring Chinook salmon were transported to upstream spawning areas as part of a trap-and-haul program with adults passed ranging annually from 0 to 1,038 (Taylor, 2000). The progeny of adult fish that are allowed to spawn above Cougar Dam move downstream into Cougar Reservoir in the spring. Under the BIOP, the USACE is required to provide downstream fish passage or operational alternatives at Cougar Dam by 2014. Currently, there is little information about the seasonal timing of reservoir entry of juvenile Chinook salmon and what habitats they and other fishes use in the reservoir. However, rotary screw traps placed in the outlet channel below the dam indicate peak juvenile passage coinciding with seasonally low pool elevation in mid December and late January. It is unknown whether juveniles upstream of Cougar Dam can be captured in large enough numbers for tagging and subsequent survival studies to proceed. These studies are needed to examine the feasibility of installing downstream fish passage structures at Cougar Dam to meet BIOP requirements. Therefore, the USACE contracted with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to test the efficacy of using a mid-water trawl and lampara seine to capture fish in Cougar Reservoir on three consecutive days in the fall of 2010. These collection methods could potentially provide fish for feasibility and subsequent survival studies and as verification of fish targets in future active hydroacoustic surveys.

Oregon

Updates to CE-QUAL-W2 models for select U.S. Army Corps of Engineers reservoirs in the Willamette Valley Project and an inter-reservoir reach of the Middle Fork Willamette River, northwestern Oregon

Mechanistic models capable of simulating hydrodynamics and water temperature in rivers and reservoirs are valuable tools for investigating thermal conditions and their relation to dam operations and streamflow in river basins where upstream water storage and management decisions have an important influence on river reaches with threatened fish populations. In particular, models allow managers to investigate how new, untried operations or hypothetical structures might influence streamflow and temperature conditions downstream. CE-QUAL-W2 is a two-dimensional (laterally averaged) hydrodynamic water-quality model that has previously been used to investigate the downstream effects of dam operations and other anthropogenic influences on stream temperature in the Willamette River Basin in northwestern Oregon, a region with two populations of fish species designated as threatened under the Endangered Species Act. By linking CE-QUAL-W2 river models to models of upstream, large Willamette Valley Project dams and reservoirs, these models can be used to investigate how dam operations at individual dams can influence streamflow and thermal conditions in downstream river reaches as an integrated system. Integrated model simulations that include the large dams and reservoirs linked to downstream river reaches can help managers develop a better understanding of tradeoffs associated with potential retrofits or operational changes across the multipurpose dams in the Willamette Valley Project, the effect of dam management on downstream tributaries and the Willamette River, and the resulting potential effect on threatened fish populations and habitat conditions. River models capable of simulating river corridors downstream from U.S. Army Corps of Engineers dams were previously updated and integrated to simulate conditions that occurred from March through October of 2011 (a cool and wet year), 2015 (a hot and dry year), and 2016 (a moderately hot and dry year) using CE-QUAL-W2 version 4.2. These river models encompass the following: Coast Fork Willamette and Middle Fork Willamette Rivers, the Row River, and Fall Creek downstream from Cottage Grove, Dexter, Dorena, and Fall Creek Dams, respectively; South Fork McKenzie River downstream from Cougar Dam; McKenzie River downstream from its confluence with the South Fork McKenzie River; South Santiam River downstream from Foster Dam; North Santiam River downstream from Big Cliff Dam; and Willamette River from its start at the confluence of the Middle Fork Willamette and Coast Fork Willamette Rivers to Willamette Falls (river mile 26.0; near West Linn, Oregon). This report documents model modifications, boundary condition data sources or estimation methods, and goodness-of-fit statistics for six CE-QUAL-W2 reservoir models and one river model upstream from the existing river models. These models simulate (1) Hills Creek Lake; (2) Lookout Point Lake and Dexter Reservoir on the Middle Fork Willamette River; (3) the Middle Fork Willamette River reach between Hills Creek Dam upstream and Lookout Point Lake downstream; (4) Cougar Reservoir on the South Fork McKenzie River; (5) Green Peter Lake on the Middle Santiam River and Foster Lake on the South Santiam River; and (6) Detroit Lake and (7) Big Cliff Reservoir on the North Santiam River. These CE-QUAL-W2 models were built by a variety of researchers to simulate a range of conditions in past years; this report documents their upgrade to U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) edition 7 of version 4.2 of CE-QUAL-W2 and updates each model to simulate conditions from January through December of 2011, 2015, and 2016. Also included in this report is an explanation of modifications to the CE-QUAL-W2 source code that constitute USGS edition 7 of CE-QUAL-W2 version 4.2. Each of the models described in this report can be run in isolation or linked to downstream models as a “system model” to simulate conditions in tributaries and (or) in the Willamette Valley Project as a whole. As part of the model updates described in this report, some model parameters were adjusted to improve stability or decrease model error, and boundary conditions including meteorological, hydrologic, and temperature inputs were developed and updated for model years 2011, 2015, and 2016, as necessary. In some cases, the data sources used to drive previous model versions were no longer available, which required the development and checking of new data sources or estimation techniques. Goodness-of-fit statistics for outflow from the dams and in simulated river reaches generally show a good model fit, with the models simulating subdaily water temperatures at most comparable locations with a mean absolute error of generally less than 1 degree Celsius (°C) and a reasonably low bias. Model simulation of the thermal vertical profiles in each reservoir also produced an overall mean absolute error of generally less than 1 °C for all 3 years, with the exception of the Hills Creek Lake Model and the Cougar Reservoir Model in years when the reservoirs did not fill (2015 and 2016). Both of these models have known calibration issues and tend to be sensitive to the choice of certain structural parameters in the model. Overall, the calibration process was focused on obtaining model settings that led to realistic water temperature predictions in all 3 years (2011, 2015, and 2016) without over-calibrating specifically to any single year. A complete investigation of model error for these reservoir submodels was beyond the scope of this investigation but could be undertaken in the future if better model performance for these two reservoirs is desired.

Oregon

Effects of remedial grouting on the ground-water flow system at Red Rock Dam near Pella, Iowa

Previous studies have shown direct evidence of under-seepage at Red Rock Dam on the Des Moines River near Pella, Iowa. Underseepage is thought to occur primarily on the northeast side of the dam in the lower bedrock of the St. Louis Limestone, which consists of discontinuous basal evaporite beds and an overlying cavity zone. Because of concerns about the integrity of the dam, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers initiated a remedial grouting program in September 1991. To assess the effectiveness of the remedial grouting program and to evaluate methods for future assessments, a study was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Potentiometric surface maps of the overburden and bedrock indicate that the direction of ground-water flow on the northeast side of the dam has changed little from pre-grout to post-grout periods. A comparison of water levels, between a pre-grout date and a post-grout date, shows that water levels decreased but that the decrease may be more attributable to changes in dam operations than to remedial grouting. Waterlevel data for the same two dates indicate that a more gradual potentiometric surface exists on the northeast side of the dam than on the southwest side of the dam, which suggests that the hydraulic connection between Lake Red Rock and downgradient bedrock wells still is greater on the northeast side of the dam than on the southwest side. Hydrographs for some wells on the northeast side of the dam indicated a departure from pre-grout trends at approximately the same time grouting was initiated. To varying degrees, hydrographs for the same wells then appear to return to a trend similar to pre-grout years, possibly as a result of new flow paths developing over time after remedial grouting. Spearman correlation coefficients computed for water levels in wells, pool, and tailwater indicate that some areas on the northeast side of the dam appear to be less under the influence of changing pool elevations after grouting than before grouting. This suggests that the hydraulic connection between the Red Rock pool and some downgradient areas has decreased. Analysis of water samples collected from selected wells on the northeast side of the dam shows significant increases in sulfate concentrations beginning about the same time remedial grouting was done upgradient from the wells, possibly indicating that flow paths were cut off to these wells, thereby reducing the amount of mixing with fresh reservoir water. Observable changes in chloride concentrations or trends as a result of remedial grouting were not apparent. Analysis results for hydrogen and oxygen stable isotope samples collected since 1995 indicate large seasonal fluctuations of isotope ratios in the tailwater (assumed representative of the reservoir). Similar but more subdued fluctuations were observed at some wells, but other wells appeared to have little seasonal change. Stable sulfur isotope results indicate the presence of distinct water types between Lake Red Rock and in ground water from downgradient bedrock wells. Sulfur isotope values from samples from a bedrock well located upgradient from the grout curtain indicate a mixture of pool and ground water, whereas samples from downgradient overburden wells have values similar to the pool. Samples from the bedrock wells downgradient from the grout curtain have sulfur isotope values similar to a value obtained from analysis of a gypsum and anhydrite core sample. Hydrographs, statistical analysis of waterlevel data, and water-chemistry data suggest that underseepage on the northeast side of the dam has been reduced but not completely eliminated. Some areas appear to have been affected to a greater degree and for a longer period of time than other areas. Future monitoring of water levels, water chemistry, and stable isotopes can aid in the evaluation of the long-term effectiveness of remedial grouting.

Iowa

Analysis of regional rainfall-runoff parameters for the Lake Michigan Diversion hydrological modeling

The Lake Michigan Diversion Accounting (LMDA) system has been developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Chicago District (USACE-Chicago) and the State of Illinois as a part of the interstate Great Lakes water regulatory program. The diverted Lake Michigan watershed is a 673-square-mile watershed that is comprised of the Chicago River and Calumet River watersheds. They originally drained into Lake Michigan, but now flow to the Mississippi River watershed via three canals constructed in the Chicago area in the early twentieth century. Approximately 393 square miles of the diverted watershed is ungaged, and the runoff from the ungaged portion of the diverted watershed has been estimated by the USACE-Chicago using the Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) program. The accuracy of simulated runoff depends on the accuracy of the parameter set used in the HSPF program. Nine parameter sets comprised of the North Branch, Little Calumet, Des Plaines, Hickory Creek, CSSC, NIPC, 1999, CTE, and 2008 have been developed at different time periods and used by the USACE-Chicago. In this study, the U.S. Geological Survey and the USACE-Chicago collaboratively analyzed the parameter sets using nine gaged watersheds in or adjacent to the diverted watershed to assess the predictive accuracies of selected parameter sets. Six of the parameter sets, comprising North Branch, Hickory Creek, NIPC, 1999, CTE, and 2008, were applied to the nine gaged watersheds for evaluating their simulation accuracy from water years 1996 to 2011. The nine gaged watersheds were modeled by using the three LMDA land-cover types (grass, forest, and hydraulically connected imperviousness) based on the 2006 National Land Cover Database, and the latest meteorological and precipitation data consistent with the current (2014) LMDA modeling framework. Results indicate that the North Branch and Hickory Creek parameter sets, which belong to the original calibration group, attained an overall “satisfactory” rating on monthly runoff volumes based on the three performance statistics selected, but the annual and over-the-period runoff volumes were generally underestimated. Parameter sets CTE and 2008 attained a similar satisfactory rating on monthly runoff volumes but the annual and over-the-period runoff volumes were overestimated in general. Although the percent bias was improved, the CTE and 2008 parameter sets also had increased residuals in monthly runoff volumes and decreased quality of the model fit to the measured streamflows relative to the North Branch and Hickory Creek parameter sets. The NIPC and 1999 parameter sets, on the other hand, had larger percent bias and residuals in monthly runoff volumes, and underestimated the annual and over-the-period runoff volumes. Recalibration of the HSPF parameters to the updated inputs and land covers was completed on two representative watershed models selected from the nine by using a manual method (HSPEXP) and an automatic method (PEST). The objective of the recalibration was to develop a regional parameter set that improves the accuracy in runoff volume prediction for the nine study watersheds. Knowledge about flow and watershed characteristics plays a vital role for validating the calibration in both manual and automatic methods. The best performing parameter set was determined by the automatic calibration method on a two-watershed model. Applying this newly determined parameter set to the nine watersheds for runoff volume simulation resulted in “very good” ratings in five watersheds, an improvement as compared to “very good” ratings achieved for three watersheds by the North Branch parameter set.

Illinois, Indiana

Groundwater hydrology and estimation of horizontal groundwater flux from the Rio Grande at selected locations in Albuquerque, New Mexico, 2009–10

The Albuquerque area of New Mexico has two principal sources of water: (1) groundwater from the Santa Fe Group aquifer system, and (2) surface water from the Rio Grande. From 1960 to 2002, pumping from the Santa Fe Group aquifer system caused groundwater levels to decline more than 120 feet while water-level declines along the Rio Grande in Albuquerque were generally less than 40 feet. These differences in water-level declines in the Albuquerque area have resulted in a great deal of interest in quantifying the river-aquifer interaction associated with the Rio Grande. In 2003, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, acting as fiscal agent for the Middle Rio Grande Endangered Species Collaborative Program, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, began a study to characterize the hydrogeology of the Rio Grande inner valley alluvial aquifer in the Albuquerque area of New Mexico. The study provides hydrologic data in order to enhance the understanding of rates of water leakage from the Rio Grande to the alluvial aquifer, groundwater flow through the aquifer, and discharge of water from the aquifer to riverside drains. The study area extends about 20 miles along the Rio Grande in the Albuquerque area. Piezometers and surface-water gages were installed in paired transects at eight locations. Nested piezometers, completed at various depths in the alluvial aquifer, and surface-water gages, installed in the Rio Grande and riverside drains, were instrumented with pressure transducers. Water-level and water-temperature data were collected from 2009 to 2010. Water levels from the piezometers indicated that groundwater movement was usually away from the river towards the riverside drains. Annual mean horizontal groundwater gradients in the inner valley alluvial aquifer ranged from 0.0024 (I-25 East) to 0.0144 (Pajarito East). The median hydraulic conductivity values of the inner valley alluvial aquifer, determined from slug tests, ranged from 30 feet per day (ft/d) (Montaño) to 120 ft/d (Central) for paired transects, with a median hydraulic conductivity for all transects of 50 ft/d. Daily mean groundwater fluxes from the river through the inner valley alluvial aquifer computed using Darcy’s Law and the slug test results ranged from about 0.01 ft/d (Montaño West) to between 1.0 and 2.0 ft/d (Central East). Median annual groundwater fluxes from the river through the inner valley alluvial aquifer determined using the Suzuki-Stallman method was greatest at Alameda East (0.50 ft/d) and lowest at Alameda West (0.25 ft/d). The results from both methods agreed reasonably well. Seepage investigations conducted by measuring discharge in the east and west riverside drains provided information for computing changes in flow within the drains and for evaluating results from Darcy’s Law and Suzuki-Stallman method flux calculations. Discharge measured in the east riverside drain between the Barelas Bridge and the I-25 bridge indicated that the flow in the east riverside drain increased by an average of 56.5 cubic feet per day per linear foot (ft 3 /d/ft) of drain. Discharge measured in the west riverside drain between the Central bridge and the I-25 bridge indicated that flow increased between west drain miles 0 and 4, an average of 53.8 ft 3 /d/ft of drain, and that flow increased between west drain miles 7 and 10, an average of 44.9 ft 3 /d/ft of drain. In comparison to the seepage measurement results, the groundwater fluxes from the river through the inner valley alluvial aquifer calculated from Darcy’s Law (q slug ) and by the Suzuki-Stallman method (q heat ) would account for 20–36 percent or 53–95 percent, respectively, of the total flow in the east riverside drain and 22–31 percent or 19–26 percent, respectively, of the total flow in the west drain. These results indicate that the drains likely also receive water from outside the inner valley. The spatial variability of horizontal hydraulic gradients and groundwater fluxes can be primarily attributed to variability in the distances between the river and riverside drains throughout the study area and geologic heterogeneities in the alluvial aquifer. Temporal variability in the water levels, which control the horizontal hydraulic gradients and fluxes between the Rio Grande and the riverside drains, can be primarily attributed to seasonal fluctuations in river stage and irrigation practices.

New Mexico

Simulation of streamflow and suspended-sediment concentrations and loads in the lower Nueces River watershed, downstream from Lake Corpus Christi to the Nueces Estuary, South Texas, 1958-2008

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers-Fort Worth District, City of Corpus Christi, Guadalupe-Blanco River Authority, San Antonio River Authority, and San Antonio Water System, developed, calibrated, and tested a Hydrological Simulation Program ? FORTRAN (HSPF) watershed model to simulate streamflow and suspended-sediment concentrations and loads during 1958-2008 in the lower Nueces River watershed, downstream from Lake Corpus Christi to the Nueces Estuary in South Texas. Data available to simulate suspended-sediment concentrations and loads consisted of historical sediment data collected during 1942-82 in the study area and suspended-sediment concentration data collected periodically by the USGS during 2006-07 at three USGS streamflow-gaging stations, Nueces River near Mathis, Nueces River at Bluntzer, and Nueces River at Calallen. The Nueces River near Mathis station is downstream from Wesley E. Seale Dam, completed in 1958 to impound Lake Corpus Christi. Suspended-sediment data collected before and after completion of Wesley E. Seale Dam provide insights to the effects of the dam and reservoir on suspended-sediment loads transported by the lower Nueces River from downstream of the dam to the Nueces Estuary. Annual suspended-sediment loads at a site near the Nueces River at Mathis station were considerably lower, for a given annual mean discharge, after the dam was completed than before the dam was completed. Most of the suspended sediment transported by the Nueces River downstream from Wesley E. Seale Dam occurred during high-flow releases from the dam or during floods. During October 1964-September 1971, about 532,000 tons of suspended sediment were transported by the Nueces River near Mathis. Of this amount, about 473,000 tons, or about 89 percent, were transported by large runoff events (mean streamflow exceeding 1,000 cubic feet per second). To develop the watershed model to simulate suspended-sediment concentrations and loads in the lower Nueces River watershed during 1958-2008, streamflow simulations were calibrated and tested with available data for 2001-08 from the Nueces River at Bluntzer and Nueces River at Calallen stations. Streamflow data from the Nueces River near Mathis station were used as input to the model at the upstream boundary of the model. Simulated streamflow volumes for the Bluntzer and Calallen stations showed good agreement (within 6 percent) with measured streamflow volumes. The HSPF model was calibrated to simulate suspended sediment using suspended-sediment data collected at the Mathis, Bluntzer, and Calallen stations during 2006-07. The calibrated watershed model was used to estimate streamflow and suspended-sediment loads for 1958-2008, including loads transported to the Nueces Estuary. During 1958-2008, on average, an estimated 307 tons per day of suspended sediment were delivered to the lower Nueces River; an estimated 297 tons per day were delivered to the estuary. The annual suspended-sediment load was highly variable, depending on the occurrence of storm events and high streamflows. During 1958-2008, the annual total sediment loads to the estuary varied from an estimated 3.8 to 2,490 tons per day. On average, 117 tons per day, or about 38 percent of the estimated annual suspended-sediment contribution, originated from cropland in the study watershed. Releases from Lake Corpus Christi delivered an estimated 98 tons per day of suspended sediment or about 32 percent of the 307 tons per day estimated to have been delivered to the lower Nueces River. Erosion of stream-channel bed and banks accounted for 55 tons per day or about 18 percent of the estimated total suspended-sediment load. All other land categories, except cropland, accounted for an estimated 37 tons per day, or about 12 percent of the total. An estimated 9.6 tons per day of suspended sediment or about 3 percent of the suspended-sediment load delivered to the lower Nueces River

Scientific Investigations Report

Assessment of adult pallid sturgeon fish condition, Lower Missouri River—Application of new information to the Missouri River Recovery Program

During spring 2015, Nebraska Game and Parks Commission (NGPC) biologists noted that pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) were in poor condition during sampling associated with the Pallid Sturgeon Population Assessment Project and NGPC’s annual pallid sturgeon broodstock collection effort. These observations prompted concerns that reduced fish condition could compromise reproductive health and population growth of pallid sturgeon. There was a further concern that compromised condition could possibly be linked to U.S. Army Corps of Engineers management actions and increase jeopardy to the species. An evaluation request was made to the Missouri River Recovery Program and the Effects Analysis Team was chartered to evaluate the issue. Data on all Missouri River pallid sturgeon captures were requested and received from the National Pallid Sturgeon Database. All data were examined for completeness and accuracy; 12,053 records of captures between 200 millimeters fork length (mm FL) and 1,200 mm FL were accepted. We analyzed condition using (1) the condition formula (Kn) from Shuman and others (2011); (2) a second Kn formulation derived from the 12,053 records (hereafter referred to as “Alternative Kn”); and (3) an analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) approach that did not rely on a Kn formulation. The Kn data were analyzed using group (average annual Kn) and individual (percentage in low, normal, and robust conditions) approaches. Using the Shuman Kn formulation, annual mean Kn was fairly static from 2005 to 2011 (although always higher in the upper basin), declined from 2012 to 2015, then remained either static (lower basin) or increasing (upper basin) in 2016. Under the Alternative Kn formulation, the upper basin showed no decline in Kn, whereas the lower basin displayed the same trend as the Shuman Kn formulation. Using both formulations, the individual approach revealed a more complex situation; at the same times and locations that there are fish in poor condition, there are nearby fish in normal or robust condition. The ANCOVA approach revealed that fish condition at size changed between 400 and 600 mm and that some of the apparent trend in low condition was caused by differences in sample size across the size range of the population (that is, greater catch of intermediate-sized fish compared to large fish). We examined basin, year, origin (hatchery compared to wild), segment, and size class for effects on condition and concluded that, since 2012, there has been an increase in the percentage of pallid sturgeon in low condition. There are basin, year, and segment effects; origin and size class do not seem to have an effect. The lower basin, in particular segment 9 (Platte River to Kansas River), had a high percentage of low-condition fish. Within the segment, there were bend-level effects, but the bend effect was not spatially contiguous. We concluded that existing data confirm concerns about declining fish condition, especially in the segments between Sioux City, Iowa, and Kansas City, Missouri. Although the evidence is strong that fish condition has been in decline from 2011 to 2015, additional analysis of individual fish histories may provide more confidence in this conclusion; such analysis was beyond the scope of this effort but is part of our recommendations. The most recent data in 2016 indicate that decline of condition may have leveled off; however, the length of record is insufficient to determine whether recent declines are within the background range of variation. We recommend that monitoring of fish condition should be increased and enhanced with additional health metrics. We also recommend that, should condition continue to decline, processes are deployed to bring low-condition adult fish into the hatchery to improve nutrition and condition. We could not determine the cause of declining fish condition with available data, but we compiled information on several dominant hypotheses in two main categories: inter- or intraspecific competition for resources and habitat conditions. Data are insufficient to indicate a specific causation or solution, and it is possible that multiple causes apply. We make recommendations for additional research that can be pursued to address uncertainties in trends in fish health as well as potential causes.

Missouri River

Dam failure analysis for the Lago de Matrullas Dam, Orocovis, Puerto Rico

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority, completed a hydrologic and hydraulic study to assess the potential hazard to human life and property associated with the hypothetical failure of the Lago de Matrullas Dam, located within the headwaters of the Río Grande de Manatí. The hydrologic study yielded outflow hydrographs and peak discharges for Lago de Matrullas and other subbasins in the Río Grande de Manatí hydrographic basin for three extreme rainfall events: (1) a 6-hour probable maximum precipitation (PMP) event, (2) a 24-hour PMP event, and (3) a 100-year-recurrence, 24-hour rainfall event. The hydraulic study simulated the hypothetical dam failure of Lago de Matrullas using hypothetical flood hydrographs generated from the hydrologic study and selected dam breach parameters. The flood wave resulting from the failure was downstream-routed through the lower reaches of the Río Matrullas, the Río Toro Negro, and the Río Grande de Manatí for determination of water-surface profiles developed from the event-based hydrologic scenarios and “sunny day” (no precipitation) conditions. The Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC–HMS) and the River Analysis System (HEC–RAS) computer programs, developed by the Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC) of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, were used for the hydrologic and hydraulic modeling, respectively. The flow routing in the hydraulic analyses was performed using the unsteady-state flow module available in the HEC–RAS model. At the Lago de Matrullas Dam, inflow peak discharges of about 1,104 and 1,032 cubic meters per second (m 3 /s) were estimated with HEC–HMS for the 6- and 24-hour PMP events, respectively. The 100-year recurrence, 24-hour rainfall event simulation resulted in a peak discharge of about 418 m 3 /s. For the hydrologic analysis, no dam failure conditions were considered with the model. The results of the hydrologic simulations indicated, however, that the dam would be overtopped by the simulated 6- and 24-hour PMP events. Unlike the 6- and 24-hour PMP events, no overtopping was observed during the simulated 100-year recurrence, 24-hour rainfall event. For the dam-breach hydraulic analysis, the hypothetical failures of the Lago de Matrullas Dam included two possible failure modes: overtopping and piping. Overtopping failure was evaluated in this study for the 6- and 24- hour probable-maximum-precipitation breach scenarios. Piping dam failure was simulated for sunny day conditions and for the 100-year-recurrence, 24-hour rainfall scenario. Results from the simulated dam failure of the Lago de Matrullas Dam using the HEC–RAS model for the 6- and 24-hour PMP events showed peak discharges at the dam of 3,149.33 and 3,604.70 m 3 /s, respectively. Dam failure during the 100-year-recurrence, 24-hour rainfall event resulted in a peak discharge of 2,103.12 m 3 /s directly downstream from the dam. Dam failure under sunny day conditions produced a peak discharge of 1,695.91 m 3 /s at the dam assuming the antecedent lake level was at the morning-glory spillway invert elevation. Flood-inundation maps prepared as part of the study depict the flood extent and provide valuable information for preparing an Emergency Action Plan. Results of the failure analysis indicate that a failure of the Lago de Matrullas Dam could cause flooding to many of the inhabited areas along stream banks from the Lago de Matrullas Dam to the mouth of the Río Grande de Manatí. Among the areas most affected are the low-lying regions in the vicinity of the towns of Ciales, Manatí, and Barceloneta. The delineation of the flood boundaries near the town of Barceloneta considered the effects of a levee constructed during 2000 at Barceloneta in the flood plain of the Río Grande de Manatí to provide protection against flooding to the near-by low-lying populated areas. The results showed overtopping can be expected in the aforementioned levee during 6- and 24-hour probable-maximum-precipitation dam failure scenarios. No overtopping of the levee was simulated, however, during dam failure scenarios under the 100-year recurrence, 24-hour rainfall event or sunny day conditions.

Orocovis

Accuracy assessment/validation methodology and results of 2010–11 land-cover/land-use data for Pools 13, 26, La Grange, and Open River South, Upper Mississippi River System

Introduction/Background The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)-Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center (UMESC) was responsible for development of several land cover/land use (LCU) systemic datasets of the Upper Mississippi River System (UMRS). These efforts (1989 and 2000) were funded by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’ Upper Mississippi River Restoration Program (UMRR) Long Term Resource Monitoring (LTRM) element. Development of systemic datasets includes the acquisition, processing, and serving of high-resolution aerial photography and land cover/land use spatial datasets ( http://www.umesc.usgs.gov/data_library/land_cover_use/land_cover_use_data.html ). In 2008, the UMRR reached a collaborative agreement with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service-Region 3 to collect high-resolution digital imagery of the entire UMRS floodplain during 2010–11 for LTRM. The UMESC helped acquire, process, and serve this imagery, as well as produce and serve the 2010–11 LCU systemic dataset of the UMRS floodplain. Digital imagery for Pools 13, 26, La Grange, and Open River South was collected using an Applanix DSS 439 digital sensor system with a 40 millimeter lens and Color Infrared (CIR) filter. The imagery was collected at a resolution of 20 centimeters/pixel (8 inches/pixel) for Pool 13 and 40 centimeters/pixel (16 inches/pixel) for Pools 26, Open River South, and La Grange. All imagery was projected to Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) Zone 15, North American Datum of 1983 (NAD 83). The General Wetland Vegetation Classification (GWVC) system used for mapping is hierarchical, and its 31 classes can be collapsed into broader categories using either a 15- or 7-class level. While the 1989 and 2000 LCU systemic datasets have not gone through a traditional thematic accuracy assessment (AA) in the past, nor have they undergone a validation analysis, the end products are of high quality. For each systemic dataset produced (1989, 2000, 2010–11), extensive field reconnaissance is performed before photointerpretation. The intent of this field reconnaissance is to learn, test, and verify image signatures as they relate to vegetation types. Questionable areas on the imagery are visited, and the plants or land features observed in the area are recorded for reference. This procedure verifies vegetation signatures on the imagery with those on the ground. In addition, once the photointerpretation is complete, the final LCU dataset undergoes extensive quality assurance/quality control to ensure the imagery is mapped correctly. Since the 2000 LCU systemic dataset was developed, there has been a growing interest in completing thematic AAs for the LTRM LCU spatial datasets. The objective of an AA is to measure the probability that a particular location has been assigned its correct vegetation class. An AA estimates thematic (map class) errors in the data, giving users information needed to determine data suitability for a particular application. At the same time, data producers are able to learn more about the nature of errors in the data. Thus, the two attributes of an AA are “producers’ accuracy,” which is the probability that an AA point has been mapped correctly (also referred to as an error of omission); and “users’ accuracy,” which is the probability that the map actually represents what was found on the ground (also referred to as error of commission). Producers’ and users’ accuracies can be obtained from the same set of data by using different analyses. Accuracy assessment is an extensive effort that requires seasonal field personnel and equipment, data entry, analyses, and post processing—tasks that are costly and time consuming. The geospatial team at the UMESC has suggested a validation process for understanding the accuracy of the spatial datasets, which will be tested on at least some areas of the UMRS. Validation is not a true verification of map-class type in the field; however, it can provide the user of the map with useful information that is similar to a field AA. Similar to an AA, validation involves generating random points based on the total area for each map class. However, instead of collecting field data, two or three individuals not involved with the photo-interpretative mapping separately review each of the points onscreen and record a best-fit vegetation type(s) for each site. Once the individual analyses are complete, results are joined together and a comparative analysis is performed. The objective of this initial analysis is to identify areas where the validation results were in agreement (matches) and areas where validation results were in disagreement (mismatches). The two or three individuals then perform an analysis, looking at each mismatched site, and agree upon a final validation class. (If two vegetation types at a specific site appear to be equally prevalent, the validation team is permitted to assign the site two best-fit vegetation types.) Following the validation team’s comparative analysis of vegetation assignments, the data are entered into a database and compared to the mappers’ vegetation assignments. Agreements and disagreements between the map and validation classes are identified, and a contingency table is produced. This document presents the AA processes/results for Pools 13 and La Grange, as well as the validation process/results for Pools 13 and 26 and Open River South.

Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, Missouri, Wisconsin

Lithology, hydrologic characteristics, and water quality of the Arkansas River Valley alluvial aquifer in the vicinity of Van Buren, Arkansas

A study to assess the potential of the Arkansas River Valley alluvial aquifer in the vicinity of Van Buren, Arkansas, as a viable source of public-supply water was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Little Rock, District, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. An important study component was to identify possible changes in hydrologic conditions following installation of James W. Trimble Lock and Dam 13 (December 1969) on the Arkansas River near the study area. Data were gathered for the study in regard to the lithology, hydrologic characteristics, and water quality of the aquifer. Lithologic information was obtained from drillers’ logs of wells drilled from 1957 through 1959. Water-quality samples were collected from 10 irrigation wells and analyzed for inorganic constituents and pesticides. To evaluate the potential viability of the alluvial aquifer in the Van Buren area, these data were compared to similar stratigraphic, lithologic, and groundwater-quality data from the Arkansas River Valley alluvial aquifer at Dardanelle, Ark., where the aquifer provides a proven, productive, sole-source of public-supply water. Drillers’ logs for 59 wells in the Van Buren study area revealed well depths ranging from 25 to 52 feet (ft), with a mean depth of 42 ft. The thickness of the lower sand/gravel interval serving as the water-producing zone ranged from 5 to 47 ft, with a mean thickness of 29 ft. The presence of gravel was noted in only 4 of 59 well logs available for review from the study area. Percent sand was calculated from well logs in the study area, and these sand percentages were overlain onto an orthophotograph map to examine the areal distribution of sand percentage in relation to geomorphologic features of the flood plain in the study area. The logs denoting the greatest percent sand tend to occur in areas near to the river and on the concave (point bar) side of abandoned channels, while the lower percent sand tends to occur on the convex (channel fill and backswamp deposits) side of the abandoned channels. Comparison of hydrographs from water levels collected between 1957 and 1972 to cumulative departure from mean monthly and mean annual precipitation showed overall good fit and explained the long-term decreasing water levels from the earliest period of record through October 1967, followed by a sharp rise in water levels concurrent with rises in cumulative departure from mean monthly and mean annual precipitation. Hydrographs for four wells ranging from 0.8 to 4.5 miles upstream from the dam and potentially affected by rising river stage were compared to graphs of river stage and cumulative departure from mean monthly precipitation. Water levels for these wells showed minimal discernible effect by rising river stage following dam completion. Periods of increased precipitation compared closely to increases in water level for all hydrographs, regardless of river stage, and periods of no precipitation resulted in declining water levels, although river stage continued to slowly rise during these same periods. The Arkansas River has greater salinity than local groundwater, providing a quantitative tracer for any groundwater recharge originating from the river. Comparison of predam and postdam groundwater-chloride concentrations showed no increase in chloride concentrations after dam installation, which is consistent with hydrologic data. These data suggest that the dominant source of groundwater recharge in the Arkansas River Valley alluvial aquifer is infiltration of precipitation through proximal, coarse channel deposits, with minimal influx of river water. Groundwater-quality data collected from 10 wells in the study area indicated a calcium-bicarbonate water type. No primary drinking-water standards were exceeded for any constituents, and iron and manganese were the only constituents exceeding secondary drinking-water regulations. Six of the 10 well-water samples were analyzed for the presence of pesticides, as row-crop agriculture is the dominant land use in the study area. Six herbicide compounds and one herbicide metabolite were detected at concentrations substantially below those of the Federal primary drinking-water standards and health advisories. The hydrologic and geochemical data gathered for this study provide a qualitative assessment of the potential of the Arkansas River Valley alluvial aquifer as a source of public water supply in the Van Buren area. Results indicate minimal influx of water from the Arkansas River, and recharge to the aquifer appears to be dominantly by infiltration of precipitation through overlying alluvium. If vertical wells are used as a source of public water supply, then several wells will have to be used in combination at relatively low pumping rates and placed in areas with a greater percent sand. Use of a horizontal well configuration near the river to increase production may depend on infiltration of river water to supplement water removed from storage, especially where areas of lower permeability sediments might be encountered within the surrounding alluvium. If a poor hydraulic connection exists between the river and the alluvium, as indicated by this study, then production will depend on ample precipitation and recharge throughout the year and groundwater storage sufficient to prevent declining water levels where pumping rates exceed recharge.

Arkansas

Sources of suspended-sediment loads in the lower Nueces River watershed, downstream from Lake Corpus Christi to the Nueces Estuary, south Texas, 1958–2010

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Fort Worth District; City of Corpus Christi; Guadalupe-Blanco River Authority; San Antonio River Authority; and San Antonio Water System, developed, calibrated, and tested a Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) watershed model to simulate streamflow and suspended-sediment concentrations and loads during 1958-2010 in the lower Nueces River watershed, downstream from Lake Corpus Christi to the Nueces Estuary in south Texas. Data available to simulate suspended-sediment concentrations and loads consisted of historical sediment data collected during 1942-82 in the study area and suspended-sediment concentration data collected periodically by the USGS during 2006-7 and 2010 at three USGS streamflow-gaging stations (08211000 Nueces River near Mathis, Tex. [the Mathis gage], 08211200 Nueces River at Bluntzer, Tex. [the Bluntzer gage], and 08211500 Nueces River at Calallen, Tex. [the Calallen gage]), and at one ungaged location on a Nueces River tributary (USGS station 08211050 Bayou Creek at Farm Road 666 near Mathis, Tex.). The Mathis gage is downstream from Wesley E. Seale Dam, which was completed in 1958 to impound Lake Corpus Christi. Suspended-sediment data collected before and after completion of Wesley E. Seale Dam provide insights to the effects of the dam and reservoir on suspended-sediment loads transported by the lower Nueces River downstream from the dam to the Nueces Estuary. Annual suspended-sediment loads at the Nueces River near the Mathis, Tex., gage were considerably lower for a given annual mean discharge after the dam was completed than before the dam was completed. Most of the suspended sediment transported by the Nueces River downstream from Wesley E. Seale Dam occurred during high-flow releases from the dam or during floods. During October 1964-September 1971, about 536,000 tons of suspended sediment were transported by the Nueces River past the Mathis gage. Of this amount, about 473,000 tons, or about 88 percent, were transported by large runoff events (mean streamflow exceeding 1,000 cubic feet per second). To develop the watershed model to simulate suspended-sediment concentrations and loads in the lower Nueces River watershed during 1958-2010, streamflow simulations were calibrated and tested with available data for 2001-10 from the Bluntzer and Calallen gages. Streamflow data for the Nueces River obtained from the Mathis gage were used as input to the model at the upstream boundary of the model. Simulated streamflow volumes for the Bluntzer and Calallen gages showed good agreement with measured streamflow volumes. For 2001-10, simulated streamflow at the Calallen gage was within 3 percent of measured streamflow. The HSPF model was calibrated to simulate suspended sediment using suspended-sediment data collected at the Mathis, Bluntzer, and Calallen gages during 2006-7. Model simulated suspended-sediment loads at the Calallen gage were within 5 percent of loads that were estimated, by regression, from suspended-sediment sample analysis and measured streamflow. The calibrated watershed model was used to estimate streamflow and suspended-sediment loads for 1958-2010, including loads transported to the Nueces Estuary. During 1958-2010, on average, an estimated 288 tons per day (tons/d) of suspended sediment were delivered to the lower Nueces River; an estimated 278 tons/d were delivered to the estuary. The annual suspended-sediment load was highly variable, depending on the occurrence of runoff events and high streamflows. During 1958-2010, the annual total sediment loads to the estuary varied from an estimated 3.8 to 2,490 tons/d. On average, 113 tons/d, or about 39 percent of the estimated annual suspended-sediment contribution, originated from cropland in the study watershed. Releases from Lake Corpus Christi delivered an estimated 94 tons/d of suspended sediment or about 33 percent of the 288 tons/d estimated to have been delivered to the lower Nueces River. Erosion of stream-channel bed and banks accounted for 44 tons/d or about 15 percent of the estimated total suspended-sediment load. All other land categories, except cropland, accounted for an estimated 36 tons/d, or about 12 percent of the total. An estimated 10 tons/d of suspended sediment or about 3 percent of the suspended-sediment load delivered to the lower Nueces River were removed by water withdrawals before reaching the Nueces Estuary. During 2010, additional suspended-sediment data were collected during selected runoff events to provide new data for model testing and to help better understand the sources of suspended-sediment loads. The model was updated and used to estimate and compare sediment yields from each of 64 subwatersheds comprising the lower Nueces River watershed study area for three selected runoff events: November 20-21, 2009, September 7-8, 2010, and September 20-21, 2010. These three runoff events were characterized by heavy rainfall centered near the study area and during which minimal streamflow and suspended-sediment load entered the lower Nueces River upstream from Wesley E. Seale Dam. During all three runoff events, model simulations showed that the greatest sediment yields originated from the subwatersheds, which were largely cropland. In particular, the Bayou Creek subwatersheds were major contributors of suspended-sediment load to the lower Nueces River during the selected runoff events. During the November 2009 runoff event, high suspended-sediment concentrations in the Nueces River water withdrawn for the City of Corpus Christi public-water supply caused problems during the water-treatment process, resulting in failure to meet State water-treatment standards for turbidity in drinking water. Model simulations of the November 2009 runoff event showed that the Bayou Creek subwatersheds were the primary source of suspended-sediment loads during that runoff event.

Texas

Fishes of Missouri River, chute, and flood plain habitats: Chapter 4 in Initial biotic survey of Lisbon Bottom, Big Muddy National Fish and Wildlife Refuge

The Lisbon Bottom Unit of the Big Muddy National Fish and Wildlife Refuge (Refuge) is approximately 2,200 acres and is the first complete unit of the Refuge. Primary objectives of the Refuge are to create and restore diverse riverine aquatic habitats and reconnect the Missouri River to its flood plain where feasible. Management seeks to accomplish these objectives by encouraging natural processes of erosion, deposition, and succession to the greatest extent possible. One of the most salient aquatic features of the Lisbon Bottom Unit is a newly created 2-mile-long free-flowing chute, or side channel (Fig. 1). This chute began forming as a levee breech scour hole during the Great Flood of 1993. The chute continued to develop during the 1995 flood and finally cut through to a flowing side channel during the 1996 flood. Extensive erosion and bank sluffing continued during 1997 due to sustained high flows that occurred throughout most of the year. The chute has progressively become wider and deeper with a developing meander pattern and channel bars have begun to form. Lisbon Bottom also contains several seasonal and permanent wetlands and is subject to periodic flooding at high Missouri River stages. Eight studies have been completed or are ongoing to evaluate Missouri River fishes associated with various habitat components of Lisbon Bottom and adjacent Missouri River reaches (Table 1). Several are part of much larger investigations to evaluate fish use of flood-created habitat features, basinwide fish assessment, and endangered or candidate species concerns. At the Lisbon Bottom Unit or in the Missouri River adjacent to the unit 54 fish species were collected (Table 2). Eight of these species have either a protected status under State or Federal laws or biologists consider them to potentially qualify for protected status. The status of the following fish is listed in Table 2: pallid sturgeon x shovelnose sturgeon hybrid, paddlefish, northern pike, sturgeon chub, sicklefin chub, ghost shiner, western silvery minnow, plains minnow, and blue sucker. Equally important to note are fish species that were not collected. The flathead chub, currently listed as State endangered and proposed for Federal listing, were not collected in any of the studies. Common fish species, collected in all seven sampling studies, included gizzard shad, common carp, river carpsucker, and freshwater drum. Paddlefish, skipjack herring, silver carp, white sucker, redfin shiner, western silvery minnow, bullhead minnow, and black bullhead were each collected in only one of the seven studies. Pflieger (1971) developed a guild system for the fishes of Missouri based on distribution patterns and centers of abundance. Fish were assigned to one of four primary faunal groups: Ozark, Big River, Lowland, and Prairie. Two secondary groups (Ozark-prairie and Ozark-lowland) were defined for species equally abundant and distributed in two of the primary areas. Two Ozark-prairie species, shorthead redhorse and white sucker, were collected on or near the Lisbon Bottom Unit. Big River species are found primarily in the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers. The environmental factors controlling fish distribution in these rivers appear to be substrate, current velocity, and turbidity. On or near the Lisbon Bottom Unit 18 Big River species were collected (Table 2). Lowland species are intolerant of siltation and high turbidity. They inhabit standing or slow-moving water with sand, fine gravel, and organic debris substrates. Two Lowland species, bullhead minnow and mosquitofish, were collected in connected scours on the Lisbon Bottom Unit. Prairie species have broader ecological tolerances than the Ozark and Lowland species. They are largely absent in high gradient streams and cool, clear waters. Prairie species make up a significant proportion of Missouri and Mississippi River fishes. Seven Prairie species were collected on or near the Lisbon Bottom Unit (Table 2). The last group, Wide-ranging, was defined as the species more widespread than the other faunal groups with broader environmental tolerances. Most Wide-ranging species occur at least occasionally in all sections of the state. Nineteen Wide-ranging species were collected on or near the Lisbon Bottom Unit (Table 2). Kubisiak (1997) found that isolated scours in the Lower Missouri River were dominated by Wide-ranging species. Connected scours also held Wideranging species but they contained Prairie species and were dominated by Big River species. Faunal group diversity and species richness were compared between isolated (Study l) and connected (Studies 4, 5, 7, and 8) scours of the Lisbon Bottom Unit. Species richness was similar with 22 species collected in isolated scours and an average of 24.8 species collected in connected scours. Isolated scour fish catches were dominated by Wide-ranging fish (59%) with 14% Big River fishes and 14% Prairie fishes. Connected scours had a larger percentage of Big River fish (32%) and fewer Wide-ranging (36%) and Prairie (13%) species than the isolated scours. In the combined studies, Wide-ranging fish dominated the connected scours. A similar comparison was made of fish from chute habitats and the Missouri River. Chute habitats include the Lisbon Bottom Chute, the chute between the right bank and island located at river mile 219, and a shallow channel running between a large sandbar complex and the channel border adjacent to Lisbon Bottom. Species richness in the chutes (35 species) was greater than that of the adjacent river (23 species). Big River species (40%) dominated the chute samples, followed by Wide-ranging at 31% Cand Prairie Cut 14%. The river samples contained equal numbers of Wide-ranging species (35%) and Big River species (35%) with 17% Prairie species. Differences in fish guild diversity and species richness may be due to numerous factors including sampling effort and sampling season. River samples were collected only in Study 3 in October; chute samples were collected in July, August, and October. Fish may have been using the chute in July and August to spawn, feed, or escape high river levels. The Lisbon Bottom Chute is a truly unique feature of the Lower Missouri River. It is the first naturally created side channel to develop since the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers tamed the river. The Corps eliminated 89% of the islands in the Missouri River between 1879 and 1954 (Funk and Robinson 1974). The chutes between the islands and the shore were shallower with less current than the main channel. These areas provided diversity to the Missouri River fish habitat, serving as nursery and feeding areas. The Lisbon Bottom Unit of the Big Muddy National Fish and Wildlife Refuge will continue to be studied in an effort to understand the complex role these areas play in river systems.

Missouri

Borehole geophysical investigation of a formerly used defense site, Machiasport, Maine, 2003-2006

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, collected borehole geophysical logs in 18 boreholes and interpreted the data along with logs from 19 additional boreholes as part of an ongoing, collaborative investigation at three environmental restoration sites in Machiasport, Maine. These sites, located on hilltops overlooking the seacoast, formerly were used for military defense. At each of the sites, chlorinated solvents, used as part of defense-site operations, have contaminated the fractured-rock aquifer. Borehole geophysical techniques and hydraulic methods were used to characterize bedrock lithology, fractures, and hydraulic properties. In addition, each geophysical method was evaluated for effectiveness for site characterization and for potential application for further aquifer characterization and (or) evaluation of remediation efforts. Results of borehole geophysical logging indicate the subsurface is highly fractured, metavolcanic, intrusive, metasedimentary bedrock. Selected geophysical logs were cross-plotted to assess correlations between rock properties. These plots included combinations of gamma, acoustic reflectivity, electromagnetic induction conductivity, normal resistivity, and single-point resistance. The combined use of acoustic televiewer (ATV) imaging and natural gamma logs proved to be effective for delineating rock types. Each of the rock units in the study area could be mapped in the boreholes, on the basis of the gamma and ATV reflectivity signatures. The gamma and mean ATV reflectivity data were used along with the other geophysical logs for an integrated interpretation, yielding a determination of quartz monzonite, rhyolite, metasedimentary units, or diabase/gabbro rock types. The interpretation of rock types on the basis of the geophysical logs compared well to drilling logs and geologic mapping. These results may be helpful for refining the geologic framework at depth. A stereoplot of all fractures intersecting the boreholes indicates numerous fractures, a high proportion of steeply dipping fractures, and considerable variation in fracture orientation. Low-dip-angle fractures associated with unloading and exfoliation are also present, especially at a depth of less than 100 feet below the top of casing. These sub-horizontal fractures help to connect the steeply dipping fractures, making this a highly connected fracture network. The high variability in the fracture orientations also increases the connectivity of the fracture network. A preliminary comparison of all fracture data from all the boreholes suggests fracturing decreases with depth. Because all the boreholes were not drilled to the same depth, however, there is a clear sampling bias. Hence, the deepest boreholes are analyzed separately for fracture density. For the deepest boreholes in the study, the intensity of fracturing does not decline significantly with depth. It is possible the fractures observed in these boreholes become progressively tighter or closed with depth, but this is difficult to verify with the borehole methods used in this investigation. The fact that there are more sealed fractures at depth (observed in optical televiewer logs in some of the boreholes) may indicate less opening of the sealed fractures, less water moving through the rock, and less weathering of the fracture infilling minerals. Although the fracture orientation remained fairly constant with depth, differences in the fracture patterns for the three restoration sites indicate the orientation of fractures varies across the study area. The fractures in boreholes on Miller Mountain predominantly strike northwest-southeast, and to a lesser degree they strike northeast. The fractures on or near the summit of Howard Mountain strike predominantly east-west and dip north and south, and the fractures near the Transmitter Site strike northeast-southwest and dip northwest and southeast. The fracture populations for the boreholes on or near the summit of Howard Mountain show more variation than at the other two sites. This variation may be related to the proximity of the fault, which is northeast of the summit of Howard Mountain. In a side-by-side comparison of stereoplots from selected boreholes, there was no clear correspondence between fracture orientation and proximity to the fault. There is, however, a difference in the total populations of fractures for the boreholes on or near the summit of Howard Mountain and the boreholes near the Transmitter Site. Further to the southwest and further away from the fault, the fractures at the Transmitter Site predominantly strike northeast-southwest and northwest-southeast.Heat-pulse flowmeter (HPFM) logging was used to identify transmissive fractures and to estimate the hydraulic properties along the boreholes. Ambient downflow was measured in 13 boreholes and ambient upflow was measured in 9 boreholes. In nine other bedrock boreholes, the HPFM did not detect measurable vertical flow. The observed direction of vertical flow in the boreholes generally was consistent with the conceptual flow model of downward movement in recharge locations and upward flow in discharge locations or at breaks in the slope of land surface. Under low-rate pumping or injection rates [0.25 to 1 gallon per minute (gal/min)], one to three inflow zones were identified in each borehole. Two limitations of HPFM methods are (1) the HPFM can only identify zones within 1.5 to 2 orders of magnitude of the most transmissive zone in each borehole, and (2) the HPFM cannot detect flow rates less than 0.010 + or - 0.005 gal/min, which corresponds to a transmissivity of about 1 foot squared per day (ft2/d). Consequently, the HPFM is considered an effective tool for identifying the most transmissive fractures in a borehole, down to its detection level. Transmissivities below that cut-off must be measured with another method, such as packer testing or fluid-replacement logging. Where sufficient water-level and flowmeter data were available, HPFM results were numerically modeled. For each borehole model, the fracture location and measured flow rates were specified, and the head and transmissivity of each fracture zone were adjusted until a model fit was achieved with the interpreted ambient and stressed flow profiles. The transmissivities calculated by this method are similar to the results of an open-hole slug test; with the added information from the flowmeter, however, the head and transmissivity of discrete zones also can be determined. The discrete-interval transmissivities ranged from 0.16 to 330 ft2/d. The flowmeter-derived open-hole transmissivity, which is the combined total of each of the transmissive zones, ranged from 1 to 511 ft2/d. The whole-well open-hole transmissivity values determined with HPFM methods were compared to the results of open-hole hydraulic tests. Despite the fact that the flowmeter-derived transmissivities consistently were lower than the estimates derived from open-hole hydraulic tests alone, the correlation was very strong (with a coefficient of determination, R2, of 0.9866), indicating the HPFM method provides a reasonable estimate of transmissivities for the most transmissive fractures in the borehole. Geologic framework, fracture characterization, and estimates of hydraulic properties were interpreted together to characterize the fracture network. The data and interpretation presented in this report should provide information useful for site investigators as the conceptual site groundwater flow model is refined. Collectively, the results and the conceptual site model are important for evaluating remediation options and planning or implementing the design of a well field and borehole completions that will be adequate for monitoring flow, remediation efforts, groundwater levels, and (or) water quality. Similar kinds of borehole geophysical logging (specifically the borehole imaging, gamma, fluid logs, and HPFM) should be conducted in any newly installed boreholes and integrated with interpretations of any nearby boreholes. If boreholes are installed close to existing or other new boreholes, cross-hole flowmeter surveys may be appropriate and may help characterize the aquifer properties and connections between the boreholes.

Maine

Reservoir evolution, downstream sediment transport, downstream channel change, and synthesis of geomorphic responses of Fall Creek and Middle Fork Willamette River to water years 2012–18 streambed drawdowns at Fall Creek Lake, Oregon

Executive Summary Chapter A. Introduction Fall Creek Dam impounds Fall Creek Lake, a 10-kilometer-long reservoir in western Oregon and is operated by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) primarily for flood-risk management (or flood control) in late autumn through early spring months, as well as for water quality, irrigation, recreation, and habitat in late spring through early autumn. Since 2011 (water year [WY] 2012), Fall Creek Lake has been temporarily drawn down each year to facilitate downstream passage of juvenile spring Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) through the 55-meter (m) high dam. This annual dam operation is temporary, typically lasting about 1–2 weeks from WY 2012 through 2020 (drawdown operations in WY 2022–24 have increased to more than 6 weeks). Drawdown of the reservoir results in lake levels being lowered to the elevation near the historical, pre-dam streambed. The annual streambed drawdowns of WY 2012–18 have improved fish passage and led the USACE to formally adopt streambed drawdowns as part of annual operations at Fall Creek Dam. However, temporarily lowering the lake to streambed creates free-flowing conditions in the reservoir that result in the erosion and episodic export of predominantly sand and finer-grained sediments (less than 2 millimeters [mm]) to the lower gravel-bed reaches of Fall Creek and the Middle Fork Willamette River. The introduction of large volumes of sand and finer-grain sediment into the dam-regulated reaches downstream from Fall Creek Dam prompted questions about the geomorphic responses to annual streambed drawdowns within Fall Creek Lake and downstream reaches along Fall Creek and the Middle Fork Willamette River. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in partnership with USACE initiated a comprehensive geomorphic and sediment transport investigation to assess the coupled processes of reservoir erosion, sediment evacuation from Fall Creek Lake, and patterns of sediment transport and deposition in reaches downstream from the Fall Creek Dam that have resulted from annual streambed drawdowns. The purpose of this report is to systematically describe the processes of sediment erosion, transport, and deposition at Fall Creek Lake and geomorphic interactions between reaches upstream and downstream from Fall Creek Dam that relate to dam operations. Specifically, this report focuses on evaluating geomorphic responses to streambed drawdowns from WY 2012 through 2018 and placing drawdown-induced geomorphic responses within the broader context of physiographic and historical conditions and dam operations of Fall Creek and Middle Fork Willamette Rivers. Key objectives for this study were to characterize changes in reservoir morphology and substrate at Fall Creek Lake, describe the character and temporal pattern of sediment transport downstream from Fall Creek Dam, characterize geomorphic changes in channel reaches downstream from the Fall Creek Dam, and relate these data to the annual streambed drawdowns of WY 2012–18. This study uses multiple independent monitoring and measurement approaches to assess site, reach, and river-scale geomorphic responses to drawdowns to inform dam and reservoir management. Patterns and processes of reservoir evolution were assessed with geomorphic mapping and volumetric analyses of topography through comparison of multiple digital surface models (DSMs). Just downstream from Fall Creek Dam, analyses of sediment export from the reservoir focused on suspended sediment but also incorporated bedload analyses to assess sediment sizes. Geomorphic assessments downstream from the dam used reach-scale and site-scale approaches to document changes in channel morphology and substrate, including site measurements of sand and finer-grained sediment deposition and in-channel bed-material, volumetric change analyses from comparison of digital elevation models (DEMs), and repeat geomorphic mapping. Findings from this study inform river management and dam operations by providing an understanding of (1) coupled upstream-downstream geomorphic responses to the Fall Creek Lake streambed drawdowns, (2) geomorphic responses of Fall Creek Lake streambed drawdowns in comparison to drawdowns at other large dams, (3) controls on reservoir erosion and downstream geomorphic responses, and (4) implications for future hydrogeomorphic changes that may result from continued drawdowns and monitoring activities to assess those changes. Chapter B. Reservoir Morphology and Evolution Related to Dam Operations at Fall Creek Lake To understand the volume and distribution of sediment accumulation in Fall Creek Lake since dam closure in 1965, decadal-scale sedimentation patterns (spanning approximately 1965–2016) are evaluated using a combination of storage curve analyses and geomorphic mapping. Short-term (drawdown event-scale) patterns of erosion, sedimentation, and sediment export downstream are evaluated using a combination of geomorphic mapping and change detection analyses that quantify the distribution and total volume of sediment erosion and deposition within Fall Creek Lake. Geomorphic mapping of reservoir topography and analyses of historical datasets reveals four categories of landforms and sediment processes within Fall Creek Lake related to lake level operations: lacustrine sedimentation expressed in the reservoir floor, fluvial erosion and deposition within historical stream channels during streambed drawdowns, channel-like features created by erosion within the reservoir floor during streambed drawdowns, and erosion on reservoir hillslopes. Where the reservoir floor is mapped for this study as pelagic (deep water), deposition up to 3 meters (m) thick by lacustrine processes and burial of pre-dam topography with deposits thinning toward the edges of the valley floor and upstream areas of reservoir are observed. Despite over 50 years of sediment accumulation since dam construction, the main stream channels of Fall and Winberry Creeks (or reservoir thalwegs) through the reservoir are well defined, though their distinct morphology is likely influenced by a long history of recurring historical drawdowns to or near streambed since dam construction. Unregulated streamflow and sediment transport through the reservoir primarily are confined to these channels during the streambed drawdown periods. Erosional channel-like features created by drawdowns are carved through underlying, unconsolidated reservoir floor sediments and are most prominent in the lower reservoir below minimum conservation pool (the low pool elevation during winter flood season); sediment generated from the formation of these drawdown channels is more likely to be transported through and out of the reservoir than sediment deposits along the reservoir hillslopes at the valley margins that are separated from main channels by areas of low-gradient reservoir floor. Morphologic changes in the lower reservoir topography between January 2012 and November 2016 indicate overall net erosion of about 129,500 cubic meters (m 3 ). The most prominent geomorphic changes occurred along the main channels of Fall and Winberry Creeks near the Fall Creek Dam where incision, lateral migration, and slumping banks resulted in vertical and lateral adjustments to channel position, whereas most changes fell below the detectable limit on higher-elevation reservoir floor surfaces except where erosion occurred along features mapped as drawdown channels. Chapter C. Sediment Delivery from Fall Creek Lake and Transport through Downstream Reaches USGS implemented a sediment monitoring program in WY 2013–18 to evaluate the quantity and character of reservoir sediment exported from Fall Creek Lake during streambed drawdowns. Turbidity and suspended sediments were monitored annually autumn through spring to span the WY 2013–18 streambed drawdowns; however, unequal monitoring timeframes each year reduced the ability to compare results and factors affecting sediment export from the reservoir difficult between years. These data were originally measured to develop regressions and compute suspended-sediment loads (SSL). Bedload sediment monitoring from a cableway at the Fall Creek streamgage was completed in the autumn-winter of WY 2013 and 2017. The limited number of samples and presumed variability in sediment supply from the reservoir precluded construction of streamflow and bedload discharge relations to compute more than instantaneous bedload. Sand and finer-grained silts and clays were transported from the reservoir in suspension, though some coarser grains (up to 32 mm) were also mobilized and transported downstream from the dam as bedload. Observations of increased sediment transport downstream from Fall Creek Dam coincided with lake levels approaching about 3 m (10 feet [ft] or elevation 690 ft) above the streambed regulating outlets. Suspended-sediment loads computed for the full monitoring periods WY 2013–18 at the Fall Creek streamgage, located 1.4 kilometers (km) downstream from Fall Creek Dam, range from 54,700 metric tons (t) in WY 2013 to 13,900 t in WY 2018. Although the total annual SSL varied from year to year, the overall seasonal patterns of suspended sediment transport throughout each year were similar during monitoring in WY 2013-18. Suspended-sediment loads were low prior to the drawdown, then increased rapidly as lake levels lowered and approached the streambed. In the weeks following the drawdown period, as pool levels were increased, SSL remained slightly elevated above pre-drawdown levels but generally declined through the following winter and spring except during streamflow-driven pulses of suspended-sediment transport. WY 2013 had the greatest total computed SSL for each streambed drawdown and partial-year monitoring period. SSL computed for the partial-year period have generally decreased since WY 2013 and have varied by about 6,800 t with the exception of WY 2014. WY 2014 SSL reflects anomalously low sediment export due to low streamflows and freezing conditions that stabilized reservoir floor deposits. Bedload measurements in the short 1.4-km reach between Fall Creek Dam and the Fall Creek streamgage showed an inverse correlation between bedload transport rates and discharge, which probably reflects diminishing supply of coarse-sized sediment. Sand was more abundant (60–100 percent) than gravel in bedload samples confirming sand and finer-grained sediment dominated sediment evacuated from the reservoir during streambed drawdowns at Fall Creek Lake. Chapter D. Geomorphic Responses to Fall Creek Lake Streambed Drawdowns Downstream from Fall Creek Dam In the days, weeks, and months following streambed drawdown operations at Fall Creek Dam through WY 2018, sites downstream from the dam displayed a variety of geomorphic responses to reservoir sediment delivery within the main channel and overbank areas. Evaluation of streambed elevations at two streamgages located 1.4 km downstream from the dam on Fall Creek and 16.3 km downstream from the dam on the Middle Fork Willamette River indicated the effects of drawdown sediment on bed elevations were modest and transient. Repeat particle size measurements (October 2015 and September 2016) at five sites along Fall Creek and the Middle Fork Willamette River showed similar grain-sized distributions that do not reveal substantial deposition of fine-grained sediment related to the WY 2016 streambed drawdown. Altogether, these findings indicate that transport capacity in the main, low-flow channels of Fall Creek and Middle Fork Willamette River during WY 2012–18 was sufficient to mobilize and evacuate reservoir sediments from streambed drawdowns or other bank material and tributary sources. However, other monitoring for this study indicate low-velocity zones in off-channel areas are prime locations for sand and finer-grain sediment deposition. Patterns of overbank sediment accumulation indicate that the magnitude and timing of overbank deposition on bars and low-elevation floodplain varies with proximity to the dam, geomorphic setting, streamflows, and other factors. Sand and finer-grained reservoir sediments carried as suspended-sediment load in the reaches downstream from Fall Creek Dam were deposited in overbank areas as observed with clay-horizon markers during WY 2016–17. Overbank deposition quantified with Geomorphic Change Detection (GCD) software evaluated landform-scale patterns of erosion and deposition using repeat light detection and ranging (lidar) surveys at two sites in the Upper Fall Creek reach and one site in the Jasper reach for 3 years (2012–15) and one site in the Clearwater reach for 6 years (2009–15). Deposition thickness and spatial patterns from the GCD analysis were variable; some sites had dispersed but measurable deposition while at others, deposition was highly localized and exceeded 1 m in depth. Patterns of overbank deposition illustrate interactions among bar morphology, local hydraulics, and suspended-sediment transport dynamics that can create patches of highly localized deposition. The measured deposition at the two Fall Creek GCD sites likely resulted from reservoir sediments released from Fall Creek Lake during streambed drawdowns in WY 2016 and 2017 because the limited sediment inputs from bank material (geomorphically laterally stable reach) or tributaries (no significant tributaries) provided few other sediment sources. On the Middle Fork Willamette River, observed patterns of overbank deposition could reflect sediment sourced from upstream tributaries, bank erosion, or Fall Creek Lake streambed drawdown operations. Despite the introduction of several thousand tons of reservoir sediment delivered from the Fall Creek Lake streambed drawdowns to below-dam river corridors, reach-scale mapping of channel features downstream from Fall Creek Dam shows minimal evidence of changes in channel planform or landforms that can be attributed to a drawdowns in WY 2012–16. On Upper Fall Creek reach, widespread increases in gravel bars or other in-channel sediment did not result from the five streambed drawdowns. The main changes attributable to sediment releases from Fall Creek Lake were localized increases in vegetated bar area, particularly on channel margin areas where sand and finer-grain sediment was deposited and rapidly colonized by vegetation. The area of mapped secondary water features decreased between 2005 and 2016, but that may be due to lower discharges depicted in the 2016 aerial photographs and less mapped area of inundation. Primary changes along the Lower Fall Creek reach include a 6.4 percent decrease in area of secondary water features between 2011 and 2016, and a nearly twofold increase in the area of unvegetated bars. Immediately downstream from the Fall Creek confluence, there were negligible changes in the location and areas of vegetated bars and the main wetted channel between 2005 and 2016, and local increases in bar area cannot be attributed solely to deposition of reservoir sediments from Fall Creek Lake because (1) areas along the Middle Fork Willamette River just upstream from the Fall Creek confluence display similar type and magnitude of changes and (2) some of the increases at the confluence area pre-date the drawdowns. The cumulative effect of sediment releases from Fall Creek Lake streambed drawdowns from WY 2012 to 2016 on downstream channel planform and landforms are modest compared to the river-scale transformations and planform changes that occurred in the decades following dam construction. Chapter E. Discussion of Geomorphic Responses of Fall Creek and Middle Fork Willamette River to Streambed Drawdowns at Fall Creek Lake Multiple aspects of Fall Creek Dam infrastructure and operations exert first-order controls on the magnitudes of reservoir erosion that occur during the streambed drawdowns and ultimately determine the sediment delivery to downstream reaches. Key aspects of the dam and its operations that are most relevant to assessing geomorphic responses to streambed drawdowns include the (1) dam infrastructure, including configuration and size of regulating outlets and their proximity to the streambed which dictates the capacity and competence of the river to deliver sediment to downstream reaches and mode of sediment transport as suspended-sediment load or bedload; (2) frequency of historical drawdowns and long-term, year-round dam operations and lake level management, which partly dictate reservoir morphology and locations and magnitudes of readily erodible materials; (3) dam operations and hydroclimatic conditions during the streambed drawdown (including length of the drawdown and streamflows entering the reservoir), which directly control the timing, duration and magnitude of reservoir erosion and sediment evacuation; and (4) dam operations following the streambed drawdown operation that regulate streamflows (and thereby sediment transport conditions) downstream of Fall Creek Dam which primarily reflect interactions between hydroclimatic conditions and flood control operations. Patterns of sediment erosion and evacuation observed in this study at Fall Creek Lake from WY 2012–18 suggest that reservoir erosion during annual streambed drawdowns may remain similar or decrease in future years assuming (1) annual streambed drawdown operations are implemented in similar manner as the WY 2012–18 drawdowns (in terms of duration, late autumn or early winter implementation, rate of pool-level lowering to reach streambed, and other factors), (2) streambed drawdowns coincide with similar conditions as were observed WY 2012–18 (similar sediment yield into reservoir, low reservoir inflows, limited precipitation, moderate air temperature), and (3) no major geomorphic changes in the main reservoir channels of Fall and Winberry Creeks occur (for example, channel avulsion). Under such conditions, it is hypothesized that the stream channel within the reservoir would achieve a quasi-equilibrium state with respect to annual influx and export of sediment and aided by the substantial amount of in-channel bedrock, will remain laterally stable without erosion across reservoir deposits. Patterns of sediment transport measured at the Fall Creek streamgage downstream from Fall Creek Dam provide insight into the potential effects of future streambed drawdowns at Fall Creek Lake. Analyses of suspended sediment measured in WY 2013–18 show a major reduction in suspended-sediment loads between WY 2013 and later years, indicating streamflows transporting sediment through the reservoir to downstream reaches during streambed drawdowns have become supply limited. The 6-year suspended-sediment monitoring and sampling program is insufficient to make predictions about future sediment transport conditions because of uneven monitoring periods and varying controls on reservoir sediment erosion. It is likely that future suspended-sediment loads will be variable but similar to those observed in WY 2015–18 if operational, climatic, and geomorphological factors remain similar to those monitored WY 2015–18. Suspended-sediment loads downstream from Fall Creek Lake will likely remain highest when regulating outlets are fully open and Fall Creek is free flowing with the reservoir fully drained with little to no residual pool. Over time, it is possible that the suspended-sediment loads would reflect mobilization of reservoir sediment deposited in the previous year rather than erosion of sediment deposited years or decades earlier. Bedload is likely to remain a small fraction of the total sediment load evacuated from the reservoir and is relatively modest compared with pre-dam bedload transport rates because most coarse sediment remains trapped by the dam. If sediment releases from Fall Creek Lake and ensuing streamflow conditions follow a similar pattern in the future as was assessed in this study spanning WY 2012–18, near-term geomorphic adjustments downstream of the dam are expected to be modest. Barring major operational, climatic, and geomorphological changes, local site-scale deposition on bars, overbank areas, or off-channel features that persists several months after the streambed drawdown will likely continue to be highly variable, ranging from negligible to several centimeters of deposition. At the landform-scale, low velocity areas nearest to Fall Creek Dam will likely continue to undergo rapid deposition immediately during and after a streambed drawdown event, similar to patterns observed for WY 2012–18. Some of the sediment entering these off-channel features and margin areas may be temporarily stored, then later remobilized and dispersed farther downstream. But if newly deposited sediment persists through the following spring, there is a greater likelihood that local vegetation will establish, reinforce deposited material, and trap sediment during later drawdowns. The reach-scale geomorphic changes may become more apparent if (1) streambed drawdowns continued for several decades, and geomorphic changes were measured at decadal scales or (2) the amount of sediment introduced to downstream reaches substantially increased and (or) sediment transport capacity decreased. The continued streamflow regulation of Fall Creek Dam after sediment releases provides an opportunity to strategically manage streamflows during and after the streambed drawdowns to minimize downstream sediment impacts and ensure other operational thresholds are satisfied. This study provides a comprehensive foundation of datasets and geomorphic analyses to inform dam operations at Fall Creek Lake, monitor sediment transport downstream, and consider operational schemes for future drawdowns. The datasets from this study also provide baselines of sediment transport and geomorphic conditions to assess future changes in reservoir and downstream environments. Future monitoring could be tailored to address specific questions regarding the long-term geomorphic effects of streambed drawdowns on fluvial habitats, flood hazards, cultural resources, or downstream water quality. Future monitoring activities could focus on the relevant geomorphic processes and spatial domains within the three categories used for this study: (1) reservoir erosion and net sediment evacuation, (2) sediment delivery to downstream reaches, including magnitude and temporal pattern of sediment transport, and (3) geomorphic responses of downstream reaches to sediment delivery. Specifically, high priority future monitoring activities could include: Repeat topographic or photographic surveys in the reservoir to characterize changes occurring within individual drawdowns, to quantify sediment export, to determine temporal changes in reservoir storage, and to identify locations of erosion and deposition. Continuous, year-round turbidity monitoring supplemented with suspended-sediment measurements at a streamflow-gaging station immediately downstream from the dam to quantify sediment export. Repeat geomorphic monitoring, mapping, or modeling in downstream reaches to track changes in channel and over bank features using a combination of site- and reach-scale monitoring approaches. This could support assessments of sediment deposition and ensuing vegetation encroachment on flood hazards and habitats and examine how sediment transport and depositional processes may be affected by different sediment supply, streamflow, or dam management scenarios.

Oregon

Effects of the earthquake of March 27, 1964, at Seward, Alaska

Seward, in south-central Alaska, was one of the towns most devastated by the Alaska earthquake of March 27, 1964. The greater part of Seward is built on an alluvial fan-delta near the head of Resurrection Bay on the southeast coast of the Kenai Peninsula. It is one of the few ports in south-central Alaska that is ice free all year, and the town’s economy is almost entirely dependent upon its port facilities. The Alaska earthquake of March 27, 1964, magnitude approximately 8.3–8.4, began at 6:36 p.m. Its epicenter was in the northern part of the Prince William Sound area; focal depth was 20–50 km. Strong ground motion at Seward lasted 3–4 minutes. During the shaking, a strip of land 50–400 feet wide along the Seward waterfront, together with docks and other harbor facilities, slid into Resurrection Bay as a result of large-scale submarine landsliding. Fractures ruptured the ground for'severa1 hundred feet back from the landslide scarps. Additional ground was fractured in the Forest Acres subdivision and on the alluvial floor of the Resurrection River valley; fountaining and sand boils accompanied the ground fracturing. Slide-generated wares, possibly seiche waves, and seismic sea waves crashed onto shore; ware runup was as much as 30 feet above mean lower low water and caused tremendous damage; fire from burning oil tanks added to the destruction. Damage from strong ground motion itself was comparatively minor. Tectonic subsidence of about 3.6 feet resulted in low areas being inundated at high tide. Thirteen people were killed and five were injured as a result of the earthquake. Eighty-six houses were totally destroyed and 260 were heavily damaged. The harbor facilities were almost completely destroyed, and the entire economic base of the town was wiped out. The total cost to replace the destroyed public and private facilities was estimated at $22 million. Seward lies on the axis of the Chugach Mountains geosyncline. The main structural trend in the mapped area, where the rocks consist almost entirely of graywacke and phyllite, is from near north to N. 20° E. Beds and cleavage of the rocks commonly dip 70° W. or NW. to near vertical. Locally, the rocks are complexly folded or contorted. So major faults were found in the mapped area, but small faults, shear zones, and joints are common. Surficial deposits of the area hare been divided for mapping into the following units: drift deposits, alluvial fan deposits, valley alluvium, intertidal deposits, landslide deposits, and artificial fill. Most of these units intergrade and were deposited more or less contemporaneously. The drift deposits consist chiefly of till that forms moraines along the lower flanks of the Resurrection River valley and up tributary valleys. The till is predominantly silt and sand and lesser amounts of clay-size particles, gravel, cobbles, and boulders. Glacial outwash and stratified ice-contact deposits constitute the remainder of the drift deposits. Fans and fan-deltas have been deposited at the valley mouths of tributary streams. Some, including the one upon which Seward built, project into Resurrection Bay, and deltaic-type deposits form their distal edges. The larger fans—composed chiefly of loosely compacted and poorly sorted silt, sand, and gravel—form broad aprons having low gradients. The fan deposits range in thickness from about 100 feet to possibly several hundred feet and, at least in some places, lie on a platform of compact drift. Smaller fans at the mouths of several canyons have steep gradients and considerable local relief. Valley alluvium, deposited chiefly by the Resurrection River, consists mostly of coarse sand and fine to medium gravel. In the axial part of the valley it is probably more than 100 feet thick. Near the head of Resurrection Bay, the alluvium is underlain by at least 75 feet of marine deltaic sediments, which are in turn underlain by 600 or more feet of drift in the deepest part of the bedrock valley. Beach, deltaic, and estuarine sediments, deposited on intertidal flats at the head of the bay and along far1 margins that extend into the bay, arc mapped as intertidal deposits. They consist mostly of silt, sand, and fine gravel, and lesser amounts of clay-size particles. The earthquake reactivated old slides and trigged new ones in the mountains. Rock and snow avalanches, debris flows, and creep of talus deposits characterized slide activity on the steeper slops. The Seward waterfront had been extended before the earthquake by adding artificial fill consisting of loose sand and gravel; part of the lagoon area had been filled with refuse. After the earth- quake, fill, consisting of silt and sand dredged from the head of the bay, was pumped onto part of the lagoon area and also on land at the northwest corner of the bay. Response to the disaster was immediate and decisive. City, State, and Federal agencies, as well as other organizations and individuals, gave unstintingly of their time and facilities. Within a few days, there was temporary restoration of water, sewerage, and electrical facilities. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers was authorized to select sites and construct a new dock for the Alaska Railroad, a new small-boat basin, and related facilities. The firm of Shannon and Wilson, Inc., under contract to the Corps of Engineers, investigated subsurface soils extensively to determine the factors responsible for the sliding along the Seward waterfront and to assist in site selection for reconstruction of the destroyed harbor facilities. Borings also made along the Seward waterfront and at the head of the bay, and laboratory tests were conducted on pertinent samples. These studies were augmented by geophysical studies both on land and in the bay. In addition, the Corps of Engineers made shallow borings on the intertidal flats at the head of the bay and performed pile-driving and load tests. Borings also were drilled and test pits were dug in the subdivision of Forest Acres. Sliding along the Seward waterfront markedly deepened the water along the former shoreline. Post-earthquake slopes of the bay floor immediately offshore also are steeper in places than before the earthquake. The strong ground motion of the earthquake triggered the landsliding, but several factors may have contributed to the magnitude and characteristics of the slides. These factors are: (1) the long duration of strong ground motion, (2) the grain size and texture of the material involved in the sliding, (3) the probability that the finer grained materials liquefied and flowed seaward, and (4) the added load of manmade facilities built on the edge of the shore, Secondary effects of the slides themselves—sudden drawdown of water, followed by the weight of returning waves—also may have contributed to the destruction. Submarine sliding at the northwest corner of the bay occurred in fine-grained deltaic deposits whose frontal slopes probably were in metastable equilibrium under static conditions. Uplift pressures from aquifers under hydrostatic head, combined with the probable liquefaction characteristics of the sediments when vibrated by strong ground motion, probably caused the material to slide and flow seaward as a heavy slurry. Under static conditions, no major shoreline or submarine landsliding is expected in the Seward area; in the event of another severe earthquake, however, additional sliding is likely along the Seward waterfront and also in the deltaic deposits at the northwest corner of the bay. Fractured ground in back of the present shoreline along the Seward waterfront is an area of incipient landslides that would be unstable under strong shaking. For this reason the Scientific and Engineering Task Force placed the area in a high-risk classification and recommended no repair, rehabilitation, or new construction in this area involving use of Federal funds; it was further recommended that the area should be reserved for park or other uses that do not involve large congregations of people. The deltaic deposits at the head of the bay probably also would be susceptible to sliding during another large earthquake. This sliding would result in further landward retreat of the present shoreline toward the new railroad dock. Specifications for the new dock, whose seaward end is now approximately 1,100 feet from the back scarp of the subaqueous landslide, require design pro- visions to withstand seismic shock up to certain limits. Earthquake-induced fracturing of the ground in the subdivision of Forest Acres was confined to the lower part of a broad alluvial fan. There, sewer and water lines were ruptured and the foundations of some homes were heavily damaged. Landsliding, such as occurred along the shoreline of the bay, was not a contributing cause of the fracturing. Two hypotheses are offered to explain the fracturing: 1. Seismic energy was transformed into visible surface waves of such amplitude that the strength of surface layer was exceeded and rupturing occurred; tensional and compressional stresses alternately opened and closed the fractures and forced out water and mud. 2. Compaction by vibration of the fine-grained deposits of the fan caused ground settlement and fracturing; ground water under temporary hydrostatic head was forced to the surface as fountains and carried the finer material with it. Water waves that crashed onto shore, while shaking was still continuing, were generated chiefly by onshore and offshore landsliding. Waves that overran the shores about 25 minutes after shaking stopped and that continued to arrive for the next several hours are believed to be seismic sea waves (tsunamis) that originated in an uplifted area in the Gulf of Alaska. During the time of seismic sea-wave activity and perhaps preceding it, seiche wares also may have been generated within Resurrection Bay and complicated the wave effects along the shoreline.

Alaska

Davis Pond freshwater prediversion biomonitoring study: freshwater fisheries and eagles

In January 2001, the construction of the Davis Pond freshwater diversion structure was completed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. The diversion of freshwater from the Mississippi River is intended to mitigate saltwater intrusion from the Gulf of Mexico and to lessen the concomitant loss of wetland areas. In addition to the freshwater inflow, Barataria Bay basin would receive nutrients, increased flows of sediments, and water-borne and sediment-bound compounds. The purpose of this biomonitoring study was, therefore, to serve as a baseline for prediversion concentrations of selected contaminants in bald eagle ( Haliaeetus leucocephalus ) nestlings (hereafter referred to as eaglets), representative freshwater fish, and bivalves. Samples were collected from January through June 2001. Two similarly designed postdiversion studies, as described in the biological monitoring program, are planned. Active bald eagle nests targeted for sampling eaglet blood (n = 6) were generally located southwest and south of the diversion structure. The designated sites for aquatic animal sampling were at Lake Salvador, at Lake Cataouatche, at Bayou Couba, and along the Mississippi River. Aquatic animals representative of eagle prey were collected. Fish were from three different trophic levels and have varying feeding strategies and life histories. These included herbivorous striped mullet ( Mugil cephalus ), omnivorous blue catfish ( Ictalurus furcatus ), and carnivorous largemouth bass ( Micropterus salmoides ). Three individuals per species were collected at each of the four sampling sites. Freshwater Atlantic rangia clams ( Rangia cuneata ) were collected at the downstream marsh sites, and zebra mussels ( Dreissena spp.) were collected on the Mississippi River. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Biomonitoring of Environmental Status and Trends (BEST) protocols served as guides for fish sampling and health assessments. Fish are useful for monitoring aquatic ecosystems because they accumulate pesticides and other contaminants. Biomarker data on individual fish, generated at the USGS National Wetlands Research Center (Lafayette, La.), included percent white blood cells in whole blood, spleen weight to body weight ratio, liver weight to body weight ratio, condition factor, splenic macrophage aggregates, and liver microsomal 7-ethoxyresorufin-o-deethylase (EROD) activity. Fish age was estimated by comparing total lengths with values from the same species in the Southeast United States as determined from the literature. Contaminant analyses were coordinated by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) Analytical Control Facility (Laurel, Md.), where residues of organochlorine (OC) pesticides, total polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), aliphatic hydrocarbons (AHs), and trace elements were determined. The organic contaminant data were generated at the Mississippi State University Chemical Lab (Mississippi State, Miss.), and the inorganic contaminant data were generated by the Texas A&M University Geochemical and Environmental Research Group (College Station, Tex.). Statistical tests were performed to assess relationships among contaminants, fish age, fish species, and collection sites. Trends in interspecific differences among fish in concentrations of contaminants were noted. Striped mullet (hereafter mullet) frequently displayed the highest chemical concentrations. Levels of contaminants were generally higher in samples obtained from the Mississippi River than in those collected from the diversion area and were higher in mussels and clams (hereafter bivalves) than in fish. Because the Mississippi River sampling site for mullet and largemouth bass was downriver of the structure and south of New Orleans and the catfish site was upriver, the downriver data may not be directly reflective of the results from the receiving waters at the Davis Pond structure. Compared to the Caernarvon freshwater prediversion study in 1990 that assessed possible influx of contaminants with the freshwater diversion, contaminant levels in fishes and bivalves in this study were generally lower, yet three nontoxic inorganic elements in Davis Pond fish samples exhibited ranges of concentrations that were more than two times higher than did those from Caernarvon. Levels in bivalves were different between diversions but about equal in the numbers of trace elements showing high levels per location. Contaminant values were compared to those listed in various literature and agency sources, both regional and national, including the National Contaminant Biomonitoring Program (NCBP), in which the 85th percentile and above represents what is considered to be an elevated contaminant concentration and cause for concern. Generally, bivalves were at the high end of their ranges for both organic and inorganic contaminants. In this study, OCs were detectable in 67 percent of fish from the Mississippi River site, ranging from 0.15 to 1.09 μg/g wet weight (ww) or fresh weight (fw), and in 11 percent of the fish from the marsh sites, ranging from 0.06 to 0.612 μg/g ww. Bivalves from the Mississippi River had OC levels of 0.096 μg/g ww, whereas none were detectable in bivalves at the marsh sites. In this study, p,p ’-dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene ( p,p’ -DDE) (a biodegradation product of DDT [dichlorodiphenyl trichloroethane]) and total PCBs were the most frequently detected OCs and were primarily from the Mississippi River. For total OC content, using adjusted least squares means, some significant interactions were noted between fish species and sites. PAHs were detected in aquatic animals at all sites (range of 0.017–17.534 μg/g ww), as were AHs (range of 0.423–4.549 μg/g ww); the highest levels of PAHs and AHs were found in bivalves from the Mississippi River. When analysis of variance (α = 0.05) was performed with data from aquatic animals, there were only two significant relationships between PAHs, AHs, and OCs between species, site, and age or the interaction among these variables. There was an interaction between fish species and n-decane (an AH) in that mullet and largemouth bass had significantly higher levels than did catfish ( P = 0.0175). When general linear means were used to investigate associations of inorganic contaminants among fish species, site, and age or any interactions among these variables, no significant results were noted for arsenic, cadmium, lead, beryllium, boron, molybdenum, or nickel. The range of mercury in fish in this study was 0.04–0.14 μg/g ww (0.14– 0.48 μg/g dry weight [dw]), with the most elevated levels detected in predatory largemouth bass at the sampling point farthest downstream from the structure and within the marsh area. Mercury was positively correlated with fish age ( P = 0.0152), where levels were estimated to increase 0.0253 parts per million (ppm) dw per year. In the Mississippi River, catfish showed significantly higher levels of mercury than did mullet or largemouth bass ( P = 0.00167). Among fish species, mullet displayed the highest levels in fish of aluminum, barium, manganese, and iron, all considered to have low toxicity in hydrologic systems. An interaction between fish and site was seen with aluminum ( P = 0.0031), where concentrations in mullet were significantly higher in the Mississippi River than at the other sites, as was also seen with barium ( P = 0.0009), chromium ( P = <0.0001), manganese ( P = 0.0004), strontium ( P = 0.0074), vanadium ( P = 0.0156), and zinc ( P = 0.0059). For iron ( P = 0.0.0001), mullet and largemouth bass at both the Mississippi River and Lake Salvador showed higher levels than did catfish, and these two species showed higher levels at two of the four sites. An interaction between fish and site was also seen with chromium ( P = <0.0001) in that concentrations in mullet were significantly higher in the Mississippi River than at the other sites, as was also seen with strontium ( P = 0.0074), vanadium ( P = 0.0156), and zinc ( P = 0.0059), metals for which deleterious effects have been demonstrated in other ecosystems. The NCBP program lists the 85th percentile for zinc at 34.2 μg/g fw (117.9 μg/g dw). In the Davis Pond prediversion biomonitoring study (hereafter the current study), one fish (MUL31RIVER, fish ID 8) showed values higher than that (125.4 μg/g dw or 37.54 μg/g ww), and the Mississippi River bivalve sample (MUSSRIVER) had a value of 140 μg/g dw (41.2 μg/g ww). In the current study, approximately 86 percent of the fish had measurable selenium levels, yet none reached the 85th percentile. The 85th percentile for selenium from the NCBP was 0.73 μg/g ww. Significantly higher levels of selenium were seen in mullet than in largemouth bass and catfish ( P = 0.0023). The NCBP 85th percentile for lead is 0.22 μg/g ww (0.76 μg/g dw). In the current study, the range of concentrations of lead was as much as 18.3 ppm dw (MUL31RIVER, fish ID 8), with the three most elevated values (range of 3.46–5.31 μg/g ww) coming from mullet from the Mississippi River. Biomarker data are measurable and directly reflect the condition of the animal, and measuring more than one biomarker in an individual increases confidence in health assessments. In the current study, biomarkers included macrophage aggregates (MAs), liver (hepatosomatic index [HSI]) and spleen (splenosomatic index [SSI]) weight to body weight ratios, percent white blood cells (WBCs) in whole blood, and condition factor. Few significant differences were noted with any of the biomarkers between sites, and there were no relationships between species and sites. For improved use of biomarker assessments, an increase in fish sample size would be useful for postdiversion sampling, as would comparisons of fish of the same sex and reproductive condition. During the current study, success for eagle nests in the diversion area and reference sites was similar as determined by numbers of nestlings fledged. When temperatures were below average during winter 2000, nests in both regions similarly failed. At each nest, the primary evidence of food items was small mammals. Eaglets (n = 6) generally appeared healthy, and whole blood concentrations of organic contaminants exceeded detection limits with three incidences of p,p’ -DDE (0.002–0.006 μg/L ww) and one incidence of oxychlordane (0.002 μg/L ww). The levels of p,p’ -DDE were well below those that have been inversely correlated with productivity and success rates of nesting bald eagles on a regional scale. The low values found in the whole blood samples for OC pesticides and PCBs were even lower when corrected for plasma volume. Aluminum values were 3.66 and 5.75 μg/L in two samples, zinc ranged from 5.21 to 6.77 μg/L ww in six samples, and silicon ranged from 1.7 to 4.6 μg/L in four samples. Selenium was detectable in each bird with the range at 0.332–0.566 μg/L ww, and strontium ranged from 0.0581 to 0.0975 μg/L ww. Mercury was detectable in blood samples from each bird and ranged from 0.0254 to 0.0845 μg/L ww, whereas lead was detectable in four samples and ranged from 0.0042 to 0.0136 μg/L ww. Although no detectable levels of total PCBs were found (also correlated with decreased reproductive productivity), 70 percent of the aquatic animals from the Mississippi River contained total PCBs (range 0.13–0.79 μg/L), whereas only about 7 percent of the aquatic animals sampled from the marsh area contained PCBs. Suggestions for postdiversion sampling include lowering the analytical detection limit for some metals, sampling aquatic animals over the course of a single season, obtaining a higher sample number of mature fish of one species (for example, blue catfish) within a range of total lengths for biomarker analyses, obtaining otoliths for estimating fish ages, assessing dioxins in eaglet blood, examining triazines in water, and obtaining all Mississippi River fish samples as close to the Davis Pond structure intake as possible. Because contaminants found in blood of eaglets reflect their prey species and because of the contaminant levels found in fish in the current study, eaglets may not be consuming primarily these species; therefore, obtaining juvenile nutria ( Myocastor coypus ) or turtle species for contaminant analyses might be considered, as well as collecting greater blood volume and using plasma to measure OCs and PCBs. Data obtained postdiversion will be compared with prediversion data to monitor changes.

Louisiana