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At least 91 records · Page 5Linked to original sources

Proceedings of the 11th United States-Japan natural resources panel for earthquake research, Napa Valley, California, November 16–18, 2016

The UJNR Panel on Earthquake Research promotes advanced research toward a more fundamental understanding of the earthquake process and hazard estimation. The Eleventh Joint meeting was extremely beneficial in furthering cooperation and deepening understanding of problems common to both Japan and the United States. The meeting included productive exchanges of information on approaches to systematic observation and modeling of earthquake processes. Regarding the earthquake and tsunami of March 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku and the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence, the Panel recognizes that further efforts are necessary to achieve our common goal of reducing earthquake risk through close collaboration and focused discussions at the 12th UJNR meeting.

Open-File Report↗

Generation of pyroclastic flows and surges by hot-rock avalanches from the dome of Mount St. Helens volcano, USA

Several hot-rock avalanches have occurred during the growth of the composite dome of Mount St. Helens, Washington between 1980 and 1987. One of these occurred on 9 May 1986 and produced a fan-shaped avalanche deposit of juvenile dacite debris together with a more extensive pyroclastic-flow deposit. Laterally thinning deposits and abrasion and baking of wooden and plastic objects show that a hot ash-cloud surge swept beyond the limits of the pyroclastic flow. Plumes that rose 2-3 km above the dome and vitric ash that fell downwind of the volcano were also effects of this event, but no explosion occurred. All the facies observed originated from a single avalanche. Erosion and melting of craterfloor snow by the hot debris caused debris flows in the crater, and a small flood that carried juvenile and other clasts north of the crater. A second, broadly similar event occurred in October 1986. Larger events of this nature could present a significant volcanic hazard. ?? 1988 Springer-Verlag.

Bulletin of Volcanology↗

Wildfire as a catalyst for hydrologic and geomorphic change

Wildfire has been a constant presence on the Earth since at least the Silurian period, and is a landscape-scale catalyst that results in a step-change perturbation for hydrologic systems, which ripples across burned terrain, shaping the geomorphic legacy of watersheds. Specifically, wildfire alters two key landscape properties: (1) overland flow, and (2) soil erodibility. Overland flow and soil erodibility have both been seen to increase after wildfires, resulting in order-of-magnitude increases in erosion rates during rainstorms with relatively frequent recurrence intervals. On short timescales, wildfire increases erosion and leads to natural hazards that are costly and threatening to society. Over longer timescales, wildfire-induced erosion can account for the majority of total denudation in certain settings with long- term implications for landscape evolution. There is a special focus on debris flows in this document because they are the most destructive geomorphic process that is observed to follow wildfires after high severity burns. In the past several decades researchers have investigated important aspects of post-wildfire debris flows, such as: the provenance of sediment that is moved in debris flows, the hydrologic and soil properties required to produce debris flows, and debris flow initiation mechanisms. Herein we highlight the relevant research articles showing the current state of progress in debris flow research as well as pointing to the fundamental research on post-wildfire hydrology and erosion that is necessary for understanding how water and sediment behave after wildfires.

Environmental Science↗

Absence of remotely triggered large earthquakes beyond the mainshock region

Large earthquakes are known to trigger earthquakes elsewhere. Damaging large aftershocks occur close to the mainshock and microearthquakes are triggered by passing seismic waves at significant distances from the mainshock. It is unclear, however, whether bigger, more damaging earthquakes are routinely triggered at distances far from the mainshock, heightening the global seismic hazard after every large earthquake. Here we assemble a catalogue of all possible earthquakes greater than M 5 that might have been triggered by every M 7 or larger mainshock during the past 30 years. We compare the timing of earthquakes greater than M 5 with the temporal and spatial passage of surface waves generated by large earthquakes using a complete worldwide catalogue. Whereas small earthquakes are triggered immediately during the passage of surface waves at all spatial ranges, we find no significant temporal association between surface-wave arrivals and larger earthquakes. We observe a significant increase in the rate of seismic activity at distances confined to within two to three rupture lengths of the mainshock. Thus, we conclude that the regional hazard of larger earthquakes is increased after a mainshock, but the global hazard is not.

Nature Geoscience↗

Reducing loss of life and property from disasters: A societal benefit area of the strategic plan for U.S. Integrated Earth Observation System (IEOS)

Natural and technological disasters, such as hurricanes and other extreme weather events, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides and debris flows, wildland and urban-interface fires, floods, oil spills, and space-weather storms, impose a significant burden on society. Throughout the United States, disasters inflict many injuries and deaths, and cost the nation $20 billion each year (SDR, 2003). Disasters in other countries can affect U.S. assets and interests overseas (e.g. the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines, which effectively destroyed Clark Air Force Base). Also, because they have a disproportionate impact on developing countries, disasters are major barriers to sustainable development. Improving our ability to assess, predict, monitor, and respond to hazardous events is a key factor in reducing the occurrence and severity of disasters, and relies heavily on the use of information from well-designed and integrated Earth observation systems. To fully realize the benefits gained from the observation systems, the information derived must be disseminated through effective warning systems and networks, with products tailored to the needs of the end users and the general public.

Open-File Report↗

An examination of historic inorganic sedimentation and organic matter accumulation in several marsh types within the Mobile Bay and and Mobile-Tensaw River Delta region

Mass accumulation rates (MAR; g cm -2 y -1 ), linear sedimentation rates (LSR; cm y -1 ), and core geochronology derived from excess lead-210 ( 210 Pb) profiles and inventories measured in six sediment cores collected from marsh sites from the MobileTensaw River Delta and Mobile Bay region record the importance of both continuous and event-driven inorganic sedimentation over the last 120 years. MAR in freshwater marshes varied considerably between sites and through time (0.24 and 1.31 g cm -2 y -1 ). The highest MARs occurred in the 1950s and 1960s and correspond to record discharge events along the Mobile and Tensaw Rivers. In comparison, MAR at salt marsh sites increased almost threefold over the last 120 years (0.05 to 0.18 g cm -2 y -1 or 0.23 to 0.48 cm y -1 ). From 1880 to 1960, organic accumulation remained fairly constant (20%), while intermittent pulses of high inorganic sedimentation were observed following 1960. The pulses in inorganic sedimentation coincide with several major hurricanes (e.g., Hurricanes Camille, Fredric, Georges, and Ivan). The nearly threefold increase in MAR in salt marshes during the last 120 years would thus appear to be partially dependent on inorganic sedimentation from storm events. This study shows that while hurricanes, floods, and other natural hazards are well-known threats to human infrastructure and coastal ecosystems, these events also transport sediment to marshes that help abate other pressures such as sea-level rise (SLR) and subsidence.

Alabama↗

Fault displacement model for surface principal rupture of strike-slip faults

The probability distribution model for principal displacement accommodated on the surface main trace is a critical input to the fault displacement hazard analysis. This article presents a new model for strike-slip ruptures in the moment magnitude ( M ) range of 6 to 8.3. The new model is the outcome of a multi-year research effort to update the widely used model developed by Petersen and others in 2011. Updates include the adoption of the Fault Displacement Hazard Initiative database and enhancements to rupture and displacement data preparation. Statistical formulation and estimation have also been updated substantially. A three-parameter modified normal distribution that we refer to as the negative Exponentially Modified Gaussian distribution is adopted to model the probability distribution of the natural logarithm of principal displacement. Formulation for the mean parameter of the modified normal includes a random earthquake term, a nonlinear scaling relation with M , and an ellipse function for along-main-trace variation. The aleatory variability of the updated model now depends on M as well as site’s along-main-trace position. These updates not only significantly improve the fit to the distribution of the observed displacements but also yield reasonable 95th percentile predictions for M > 7.5 events. Alternative models representing the estimation uncertainty of the M -scaling relation are also developed. These new models are compared to the previous model in terms of percentile predictions and the calculated hazard curves. The steeper hazard curves from the new models yield a lower exceedance rate than the normal-distribution based model developed previously by Petersen and others.

Earthquake Spectra↗

Review of Seismic Hazard Issues Associated with Auburn Dam Project, Sierra Nevada Foothills, California

Summary -- The U.S. Geological Survey was requested by the U.S. Department of the Interior to review the design values and the issue of reservoir-induced seismicity for a concrete gravity dam near the site of the previously-proposed Auburn Dam in the western foothills of the Sierra Nevada, central California. The dam is being planned as a flood-control-only dam with the possibility of conversion to a permanent water-storage facility. As a basis for planning studies the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is using the same design values approved by the Secretary of the Interior in 1979 for the original Auburn Dam. These values were a maximum displacement of 9 inches on a fault intersecting the dam foundation, a maximum earthquake at the site of magnitude 6.5, a peak horizontal acceleration of 0.64 g, and a peak vertical acceleration of 0.39 g. In light of geological and seismological investigations conducted in the western Sierran foothills since 1979 and advances in the understanding of how earthquakes are caused and how faults behave, we have developed the following conclusions and recommendations: Maximum Displacement. Neither the pre-1979 nor the recent observations of faults in the Sierran foothills precisely define the maximum displacement per event on a fault intersecting the dam foundation. Available field data and our current understanding of surface faulting indicate a range of values for the maximum displacement. This may require the consideration of a design value larger than 9 inches. We recommend reevaluation of the design displacement using current seismic hazard methods that incorporate uncertainty into the estimate of this design value. Maximum Earthquake Magnitude. There are no data to indicate that a significant change is necessary in the use of an M 6.5 maximum earthquake to estimate design ground motions at the dam site. However, there is a basis for estimating a range of maximum magnitudes using recent field information and new statistical fault relations. We recommend reevaluating the maximum earthquake magnitude using current seismic hazard methodology. Design Ground Motions. A large number of strong-motion records have been acquired and significant advances in understanding of ground motion have been achieved since the original evaluations. The design value for peak horizontal acceleration (0.64 g) is larger than the median of one recent study and smaller than the median value of another. The value for peak vertical acceleration (0.39 g) is somewhat smaller than median values of two recent studies. We recommend a reevaluation of the design ground motions that takes into account new ground motion data with particular attention to rock sites at small source distances. Reservoir-Induced Seismicity. The potential for reservoir-induced seismicity must be considered for the Auburn Darn project. A reservoir-induced earthquake is not expected to be larger than the maximum naturally occurring earthquake. However, the probability of an earthquake may be enhanced by reservoir impoundment. A flood-control-only project may involve a lower probability of significant induced seismicity than a multipurpose water-storage dam. There is a need to better understand and quantify the likelihood of this hazard. A methodology should be developed to quantify the potential for reservoir induced seismicity using seismicity data from the Sierran foothills, new worldwide observations of induced and triggered seismicity, and current understanding of the earthquake process. Reevaluation of Design Parameters. The reevaluation of the maximum displacement, maximum magnitude earthquake, and design ground motions can be made using available field observations from the Sierran foothills, updated statistical relations for faulting and ground motions, and current computational seismic hazard methodologies that incorporate uncertainty into the analysis. The reevaluation does not require significant new geological field studies.

Open-File Report↗

Geotechnical characterization of TriNet sites: A status report

The TriNet project, launched in 1997, created an improved, real-time seismic monitoring network in Southern California. Planning of the network began in 1995 ( e.g. , Heaton et al. , 1996 ), building on the success of the earlier TERRAscope network, which included 24 digital broadband and strong-motion instruments throughout Southern California ( e.g. , Kanamori et al. , 1993 ). At the end of the five-year TriNet project the network comprised 150 real-time digital broadband stations and another 400 strong-motion sensors, 50 of which were also real-time. This network is now recording digital broadband data for Southern California earthquakes at an unprecedented rate, data that are already proving valuable for investigations of earthquake sources and regional wave propagation, as well as earthquake response. In this report we describe an ongoing effort aimed at a full geotechnical characterization of the newly installed TriNet sets. Shallow geologic structure is known to play a substantial role in controlling the ground motions recorded at any site. Documentation of amplified ground motion at soft-sediment sites can be found among even early macroseismic observations of strong ground motions ( e.g. , Drake, 1815 ). Seismic waves are also now known to be strongly affected by deep basin structure as well ( e.g. , Frankel et al. , 1991 ; Field, 2000 ; Joyner, 2000 ). It will be necessary to understand these effects to exploit fully the rich data set being recorded at TriNet sites. Clearly, the nature of site conditions and site response at the recording sites must be understood for studies focused on ground motions and hazard from future large earthquakes, but it is also necessary to understand these effects to conduct earthquake source studies of both large and small earthquakes. Our multifaceted site characterization project involves geological/geotechnical site investigations, database development, and investigation of empirical amplification factors determined from broadband and strong-motion data recorded to date. Our goal is to complete a first-order geologic site characterization by 2005 and then employ appropriate methods to obtain direct constraint on shallow shear-wave velocity structure at each site. In the latter effort we will endeavor to find the most accurate and cost-effective methods to quantify geotechnical parameters at sites that have ranges of geologic site conditions and cultural settings. Our long-term goal is to obtain direct estimates of the average shear-wave velocity in the upper 30 m, Vs30, at each site. If velocity information is available to greater depths, for example at sites characterized under the ROSRINE project ( http://geoinfo.usc.edu/rosrine/ ), this information will be included in the database as well. The original motivation for using Vs30 to characterize near-surface velocity was pragmatic, determined by such factors as the typical reach of a drill rig in a single day. The parameter has become the accepted standard with which many seismic recording sites are characterized, however. In a recent study using mainshock and aftershock recordings at sites in the Los Angeles region, Wald and Mori ( 2000 ) observed good correlation between Vs30 and amplification at 1-7 Hz, albeit with significant scatter. The purpose of this report is threefold. First, we describe our ongoing efforts and present site characterization results collected to date for 62 broadband and strong-motion stations in and around the greater Los Angeles metropolitan region. Second, we present preliminary results that illustrate how improved geologic site characterizations can improve the correlation between site conditions and site response. Finally, we invite feedback from the community to guide our future investigations, in particular with respect to our ongoing database development efforts.

California↗

Biological implications for contaminants of emerging concern in the Great Lakes–Upper St Lawrence River drainage: An effect-based ecological hazard assessment in fish

Contaminants of emerging concern (CECs) are released widely and continuously into the Great Lakes Basin–Upper St Lawrence River study area, with many detected in surface water at concentrations known to adversely affect fish. We applied a recent ecological hazard assessment methodology to identify the biological significance of a database of 21,441 surface water CEC concentrations compiled from 7,162 surface water samples collected at 1,021 sampling sites in 387 individual waterbodies throughout the Great Lakes Basin. We assessed hazard to fish in 12 effect categories (e.g., mortality, developmental, reproductive) from aqueous exposure to 16 emerging contaminants. Our hazard assessment used pairs of screening values to generate contaminant- and effect-specific ordinal hazard scores. Using this novel methodology, we generated a database of 93,864 hazard scores. We found the highest level of hazard to fish, indicating probable adverse impacts, was broadly distributed and often associated with municipalities. Mortality, reproductive, and developmental effect categories combined accounted for 17.5% of high hazard observations. Low hazard, indicating possible adverse effects, was prevalent for numerous effect categories and occurred throughout the period 1991–2021. For mortality, reproductive, and developmental effect categories, the incidence of elevated hazard (low or high hazard) among assessed water samples was 20.4%, 39.5%, and 20.3%, respectively. On a local scale, effect-based assessment is an efficient and conceptually simple tool for natural resource managers to obtain effect- and site-specific hazard information concerning CEC effects in fish that can be used in project planning and results interpretation for natural resource monitoring, restoration, and protection.

Great Lakes–Upper St Lawrence River study area↗

Using surficial geologic maps, vegetation, and monitoring to address erosion impacts from grazing in Channel Islands National Park, California

Employing a map-unit classification scheme based on geomorphic process and age, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) mapped Quaternary surficial deposits of the five islands comprising Channel Islands National Park (CHIS), California, as no such maps previously existed. Mapping was motivated through an agreement with the National Park Service (NPS) to aid natural resource assessments, including post-grazing disturbance recovery and identification of mass wasting and tectonic hazards. The resulting detailed (1:12,000 scale) maps portray areas of upland erosional transport processes and alluvial, fluvial, eolian, beach, marine terrace, mass wasting, and mixed depositional processes at a scale commensurate with the process signal on the landscape. Detailed, GPS-located observations of sedimentology, pedogenic development, landscape position, and geomorphology constrain map unit identification. In addition, map-unit boundary delineation was determined in a GIS using a variety of high-resolution (sub-meter) aerial imagery and lidar-based DEMs complemented by derivative raster products. The GIS geodatabase schema used is GeMS compliant. Resolvable map-unit widths are as small as 10-15 meter. Locational accuracy of unit boundaries is estimated to be as low as 10 m or better. Detailed mapping is at a scale allowing determination of geomorphic transport processes operating on the landscape and conveys geologic information to land managers at a resolution commensurate with park resources. Map unit ages are constrained by relative soil chronostratigraphy, vertebrate and invertebrate fossils, and materials collected for dating control using radiogenic, luminescence, and cosmogenic radionuclide techniques. Associated topical studies examined connections between geology, surface water, and vegetation distribution and restoration.

California↗

Divergence of seafloor elevation and sea level rise in coral reef ecosystems

Coral reefs serve as natural barriers that protect adjacent shorelines from coastal hazards such as storms, waves, and erosion. Projections indicate global degradation of coral reefs due to anthropogenic impacts and climate change will cause a transition to net erosion by mid-century. Here, we provide a comprehensive assessment of the combined effect of all of the processes affecting seafloor accretion and erosion by measuring changes in seafloor elevation and volume for five coral reef ecosystems in the Atlantic, Pacific, and Caribbean over the last several decades. Regional-scale mean elevation and volume losses were observed at all five study sites and in 77 % of the 60 individual habitats that we examined across all study sites. Mean seafloor elevation losses for whole coral reef ecosystems in our study ranged from −0.09 to −0.8 m, corresponding to net volume losses ranging from 3.4 × 10 6 to 80.5 × 10 6 m 3 for all study sites. Erosion of both coral-dominated substrate and non-coral substrate suggests that the current rate of carbonate production is no longer sufficient to support net accretion of coral reefs or adjacent habitats. We show that regional-scale loss of seafloor elevation and volume has accelerated the rate of relative sea level rise in these regions. Current water depths have increased to levels not predicted until near the year 2100, placing these ecosystems and nearby communities at elevated and accelerating risk to coastal hazards. Our results set a new baseline for projecting future impacts to coastal communities resulting from degradation of coral reef systems and associated losses of natural and socioeconomic resources.

Biogeosciences↗

Applications of knowledge and predictions of atmospheric rivers

This chapter reviews how AR research is being applied in real-world situations to address issues of flood planning and emergency intervention. It includes water supply management case studies. Examples comprise five distinct sections that show how AR research is being directly applied to the challenges that water managers, dam operators, crisis-management engineers such as USACE, National Weather Service (NWS) personnel, the media, and others face. These topics include how decision-makers on the ground must iteratively alternate between forecasts and their own field observations, especially in unfolding emergency-response conditions, and the trade-offs necessitated between acting on competing priorities such as flood-risk management and water supply management. Ultimately, almost all AR studies have the potential to directly benefit the public’s need for ongoing water supply as well as for accurate weather forecasts and deployable emergency protocols for natural hazards that necessitate municipal, state, and federal government personnel to collaborate.

Book chapter↗

Using nuclear magnetic resonance and transient electromagnetics to characterise water distribution beneath an ice covered volcanic crater: The case of Sherman Crater Mt. Baker Washington.

Surface and laboratory Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) measurements combined with transient electromagnetic (TEM) data are powerful tools for subsurface water detection. Surface NMR (sNMR) and TEM soundings, laboratory NMR, complex resistivity, and X-Ray Diffraction (XRD) analysis were all conducted to characterise the distribution of water within Sherman Crater on Mt. Baker, WA. Clay rich rocks, particularly if water saturated, can weaken volcanoes, thereby increasing the potential for catastrophic sector collapses that can lead to far-travelled, destructive debris flows. Detecting the presence and volume of shallow groundwater is critical for evaluating these landslide hazards. The TEM data identified a low resistivity layer (<10 ohm-m), under 60 m of glacial ice related to water saturated clays. The TEM struggles to resolve the presence or absence of a plausible thin layer of bulk liquid water on top of the clay. The sNMR measurements did not produce any observable signal, indicating the lack of substantial accumulated bulk water below the ice. Laboratory analysis on a sample from the crater wall that likely represented the clays beneath the ice confirmed that the controlling factor for the lack of sNMR signal was the fine-grained nature of the media. The laboratory measurements further indicated that small pores in clays detected by the XRD contain as much as 50% water, establishing an upper bound on the water content in the clay layer. Forward modelling of geologic scenarios revealed that bulk water layers as thin as &frac12; m between the ice and clay layer would have been detectable using sNMR. The instrumentation conditions which would allow for sNMR detection of the clay layer are investigated. Using current instrumentation the combined analysis of the TEM and sNMR data allow for valuable characterisation of the groundwater system in the crater. The sNMR is able to reduce the uncertainty of the TEM in regards to the presence of a bulk water layer, a valuable piece of information in hazard assessment.

Washington↗

The 30 November 2018 Mw7.1 Anchorage Earthquake

The M w "> M w 7.1 47 km deep earthquake that occurred on 30 November 2018 had deep societal impacts across southcentral Alaska and exhibited phenomena of broad scientific interest. We document observations that point to future directions of research and hazard mitigation. The rupture mechanism, aftershocks, and deformation of the mainshock are consistent with extension inside the Pacific plate near the down‐dip limit of flat‐slab subduction. Peak ground motions &gt; 25 % g "> g >25%g were observed across more than 8000 &#x2009;&#x2009; km 2 "> 8000 km 2 ⁠ , though the most violent near‐fault shaking was avoided because the hypocenter was nearly 50 km below the surface. The ground motions show substantial variation, highlighting the influence of regional geology and near‐surface soil conditions. Aftershock activity was vigorous with roughly 300 felt events in the first six months, including two dozen aftershocks exceeding M 4.5. Broad subsidence of up to 5 cm across the region is consistent with the rupture mechanism. The passage of seismic waves and possibly the coseismic subsidence mobilized ground waters, resulting in temporary increases in stream flow. Although there were many failures of natural slopes and soils, the shaking was insufficient to reactivate many of the failures observed during the 1964 M 9.2 earthquake. This is explained by the much shorter duration of shaking as well as the lower amplitude long‐period motions in 2018. The majority of observed soil failures were in anthropogenically placed fill soils. Structural damage is attributed to both the failure of these emplaced soils as well as to the ground motion, which shows some spatial correlation to damage. However, the paucity of instrumental ground‐motion recordings outside of downtown Anchorage makes these comparisons challenging. The earthquake demonstrated the challenge of issuing tsunami warnings in complex coastal geographies and highlights the need for a targeted tsunami hazard evaluation of the region. The event also demonstrates the challenge of estimating the probabilistic hazard posed by intraslab earthquakes.

Alaska↗

Abrupt along-strike change in tectonic style: San Andreas fault zone, San Francisco Peninsula

Seismicity and high-resolution aeromagnetic data are used to define an abrupt change from compressional to extensional tectonism within a 10- to 15-km-wide zone along the San Andreas fault on the San Francisco Peninsula and offshore from the Golden Gate. This 100-km-long section of the San Andreas fault includes the hypocenter of the M w = 7.8 1906 San Francisco earthquake as well as the highest level of persistent microseismicity along that ∼470-km-long rupture. We define two distinct zones of deformation along this stretch of the fault using well-constrained relocations of all post-1969 earthquakes based a joint one-dimensional velocity/hypocenter inversion and a redetermination of focal mechanisms. The southern zone is characterized by thrust- and reverse-faulting focal mechanisms with NE trending P axes that indicate “fault-normal” compression in 7- to 10-km-wide zones of deformation on both sides of the San Andreas fault. A 1- to 2-km-wide vertical zone beneath the surface trace of the San Andreas is characterized by its almost complete lack of seismicity. The compressional deformation is consistent with the young, high topography of the Santa Cruz Mountains/Coast Ranges as the San Andreas fault makes a broad restraining left bend (∼10°) through the southernmost peninsula. A zone of seismic quiescence ∼15 km long separates this compressional zone to the south from a zone of combined normal-faulting and strike-slip-faulting focal mechanisms (including a M L = 5.3 earthquake in 1957) on the northernmost peninsula and offshore on the Golden Gate platform. Both linear pseudogravity gradients, calculated from the aeromagnetic data, and seismic reflection data indicate that the San Andreas fault makes an abrupt ∼3-km right step less than 5 km offshore in this northern zone. A similar right-stepping (dilatational) geometry is also observed for the subparallel San Gregorio fault offshore. Persistent seismicity and extensional tectonism occur within the San Andreas right stepover region and at least 15 km along-strike both to the SE and NW. The 1906 San Francisco earthquake may have nucleated within the San Andreas right stepover, which may help explain the bilateral nature of rupture of this event. Our analysis suggests two seismic hazards for the San Francisco Peninsula in addition to the hazard associated with a M = 7 to 8 strike-slip earthquake along the San Andreas fault: the potential for a M ≈ 6 normal-faulting earthquake just 5–8 km west of San Francisco and a M = 6+ thrust faulting event in the southern peninsula.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

A robust method to forecast volcanic ash clouds

Ash clouds emanating from volcanic eruption columns often form trails of ash extending thousands of kilometers through the Earth's atmosphere, disrupting air traffic and posing a significant hazard to air travel. To mitigate such hazards, the community charged with reducing flight risk must accurately assess risk of ash ingestion for any flight path and provide robust forecasts of volcanic ash dispersal. In response to this need, a number of different transport models have been developed for this purpose and applied to recent eruptions, providing a means to assess uncertainty in forecasts. Here we provide a framework for optimal forecasts and their uncertainties given any model and any observational data. This involves random sampling of the probability distributions of input (source) parameters to a transport model and iteratively running the model with different inputs, each time assessing the predictions that the model makes about ash dispersal by direct comparison with satellite data. The results of these comparisons are embodied in a likelihood function whose maximum corresponds to the minimum misfit between model output and observations. Bayes theorem is then used to determine a normalized posterior probability distribution and from that a forecast of future uncertainty in ash dispersal. The nature of ash clouds in heterogeneous wind fields creates a strong maximum likelihood estimate in which most of the probability is localized to narrow ranges of model source parameters. This property is used here to accelerate probability assessment, producing a method to rapidly generate a prediction of future ash concentrations and their distribution based upon assimilation of satellite data as well as model and data uncertainties. Applying this method to the recent eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in Iceland, we show that the 3 and 6 h forecasts of ash cloud location probability encompassed the location of observed satellite-determined ash cloud loads, providing an efficient means to assess all of the hazards associated with these ash clouds.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗

NASA's surface biology and geology designated observable: A perspective on surface imaging algorithms

The 2017–2027 National Academies' Decadal Survey, Thriving on Our Changing Planet , recommended Surface Biology and Geology (SBG) as a “Designated Targeted Observable” (DO). The SBG DO is based on the need for capabilities to acquire global, high spatial resolution, visible to shortwave infrared (VSWIR; 380–2500 nm; ~30 m pixel resolution) hyperspectral (imaging spectroscopy) and multispectral midwave and thermal infrared (MWIR: 3–5 μm; TIR: 8–12 μm; ~60 m pixel resolution) measurements with sub-monthly temporal revisits over terrestrial, freshwater, and coastal marine habitats. To address the various mission design needs, an SBG Algorithms Working Group of multidisciplinary researchers has been formed to review and evaluate the algorithms applicable to the SBG DO across a wide range of Earth science disciplines, including terrestrial and aquatic ecology, atmospheric science, geology, and hydrology. Here, we summarize current state-of-the-practice VSWIR and TIR algorithms that use airborne or orbital spectral imaging observations to address the SBG DO priorities identified by the Decadal Survey: (i) terrestrial vegetation physiology, functional traits, and health; (ii) inland and coastal aquatic ecosystems physiology, functional traits, and health; (iii) snow and ice accumulation, melting, and albedo; (iv) active surface composition (eruptions, landslides, evolving landscapes, hazard risks); (v) effects of changing land use on surface energy, water, momentum, and carbon fluxes; and (vi) managing agriculture, natural habitats, water use/quality, and urban development. We review existing algorithms in the following categories: snow/ice, aquatic environments, geology, and terrestrial vegetation, and summarize the community-state-of-practice in each category. This effort synthesizes the findings of more than 130 scientists.

Remote Sensing of Environment↗