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At least 757 records · Page 42Linked to original sources
USGS2022

Forecasting and communicating the dispersion and fallout of ash during volcanic eruptions: lessons from the September 20, 2020 eruptive pulse at Sangay volcano, Ecuador

Volcanic ash is a hazard to human health and activities. Accurate and timely forecasts coupled with effective communication about the dispersion and fallout of volcanic ash during explosive events are essential to reduce impacts on local communities and limit economic losses. In this study, we present the first detailed description of an eruptive pulse at Sangay volcano and its eruption source parameters. The eruptive pulse on September 20, 2020, started at about 9:20 UTC and lasted between 90 and 100 min, producing an eruptive column that rapidly separated into (1) a higher (15.2 km above sea level, asl), gas-rich cloud moving east-southeast and (2) a lower (12.2 km asl), ash-rich cloud moving west and causing ash fallout up to 280 km from the volcano. Field data collected immediately after the event allow estimating the volume of bulk tephra to be between 1.5 and 5.0 × 10 6 m 3 , corresponding to a volcanic explosivity index of 2. The eruptive pulse, identified as violent Strombolian, emitted andesitic ash that was more mafic than products ejected by Sangay volcano in recent decades. Component analysis and glass chemistry of juvenile particles support the hypothesis that this event excavated deeper into the upper conduit compared to typical Strombolian activity at Sangay volcano, while grain-size analysis allows reconstruction of the total grain-size distribution of the fallout deposit. The discrepancies between the ash fallout simulations performed with the Ash3D online tool and the actual deposit are mainly the result of inaccurate pre- and syn-eruptive configurations and highlight the importance of additional processes such as aggregation. Communication products issued during the event included (1) several standard short reports, (2) volcano observatory notices for aviation, (3) social media posts, and (4) a special report providing the results of the ash fallout simulation. Although communication was effective with the authorities and the connected population, an effort must be made to reach the most vulnerable isolated communities for future events. This study shows that forecasting ash dispersion and fallout during volcanic eruptions can guide early warnings and trigger humanitarian actions, and should become a standard in volcano observatories worldwide.

Sangay volcano↗
USGS2022

A study on the effect of site response on California seismic hazard map assessment

Prior studies have repeatedly shown that probabilistic seismic hazard maps from several different countries predict higher shaking than that observed. Previous map assessments have not, however, considered the influence of site response on hazard. Seismologists have long acknowledged the influence of near-surface geology, in particular low-impedance sediment layers, on earthquake ground-motion at frequencies of engineering concern. Although the overall effects of site response are complex, modern ground-motion models (GMMs) account for site effects using terms based on V S30 , the time-averaged shear-wave velocity in the upper 30 m of the Earth’s surface. In this study, we consider general implications of incorporating site terms from modern GMMs using site-specific V S30 as a proxy in probabilistic seismic hazard maps for California. At the long periods (1–5 s) that affect tall buildings, site terms amplify the mapped hazard by factors of 1–3 at many sites relative to maps calculated for the standard reference soft-rock site condition, V S30 = 760 m/s. However, at the short periods of ground-motion that are the main contributors to peak ground acceleration (PGA) and thus affect smaller structures, only negligible effects occur due to nonlinear deamplification of strong ground-motion at high frequencies. Nonlinear deamplification increases as the shaking level increases. For very strong shaking, deamplification can overcome the linear amplification, yielding net deamplification. We explore the implications of these results for the evaluation of hazard maps. Because site effects do not change the maps appreciably at short periods, we can exclude site response as an explanation for why the maps overpredict historically observed shaking as captured by the California Historical Intensity Mapping Project (CHIMP) dataset. The results are expected to be generalizable to regions that are comparable to California in terms of structure and seismicity rates. In low-to-moderate-seismicity regions where the hazard reflects weaker shaking, nonlinear site response is expected to be less important for the hazard.

California↗
USGS2022

Crustal permeability changes observed from seismic attenuation: Impacts on multi-mainshock sequences

We use amplitude ratios from narrowband-filtered earthquake seismograms to measure variations of seismic attenuation over time, providing unique insights into the dynamic state of stress in the Earth’s crust at depth. Our dataset from earthquakes of the 2016-2017 Central Apennines sequence allows us to obtain high-resolution time histories of seismic attenuation (frequency band: 0.5-30 Hz) characterized by strong earthquake dilatation-induced fluctuations at seismogenic depths, caused by the cumulative elastic stress drop after the sequence, as well as damage-induced ones at shallow depths caused by energetic surface waves. Cumulative stress drop causes negative dilatation, reduced permeability, and seismic attenuation, whereas strong-motion surface waves produce an increase in crack density, and so in permeability and seismic attenuation. In the aftermath of the main shocks of the sequence, we show that the M ≥ 3.5 earthquake occurrence vs. time and distance is consistent with fluid diffusion: diffusion signatures are associated with changes in seismic attenuation during the first days of the Amatrice, Visso-Norcia, and Capitignano sub-sequences. We hypothesize that coseismic permeability changes create fluid diffusion pathways that are at least partly responsible for triggering multi-mainshock seismic sequences. Here we show that anelastic seismic attenuation fluctuates coherently with our hypothesis.

Frontiers in Earth Science↗
USGS2022

Forecasting explosions at Sinabung Volcano, Indonesia, based on SO2 emission rates

Dome-building volcanic eruptions are often associated with frequent Vulcanian explosions, which constitute a substantial threat to proximal communities. One proposed mechanism driving such explosions is the sealing of the shallow volcanic system followed by pressurization due to gas accumulation beneath the seal. We investigate this hypothesis at Sinabung Volcano (Sumatra, Indonesia), which has been in a state of eruption since August 2010. In 2013, the volcano began erupting a lava dome and lava flow, and frequent explosions produced eruptive columns that rose many kilometers into the atmosphere and at times sent pyroclastic density currents down the southeast flanks. A network of scanning Differential Optical Absorption Spectrometers (DOAS) was installed on the volcano’s eastern flank in 2016 to continuously monitor SO 2 emission rates during daytime hours. Analysis of the DOAS data from October 2016 to September 2017 revealed that passive SO 2 emissions were generally lower in the 5 days leading up to explosive events (∼100 t/d) than was common in 5-day periods leading up to days on which no explosions occurred (∼200 t/d). The variability of passive SO 2 emissions, expressed as the standard deviation, also took on a slightly wider range of values before days with explosions (0–103 t/d at 1-sigma) than before days without explosions (43–117 t/d). These observations are consistent with the aforementioned seal-failure model, where the sealing of the volcanic conduit blocks gas emissions and leads to pressurization and potential Vulcanian explosions. We develop a forecasting methodology that allows calculation of a relative daily explosion probability based solely on measurements of the SO 2 emission rate in the preceding days. We then calculate forecast explosion probabilities for the remaining SO 2 emissions dataset (October 2017—September 2021). While the absolute accuracy of forecast explosion probabilities is variable, the method can inform the probability of an explosion occurring relative to that on other days in each test period. This information can be used operationally by volcano observatories to assess relative risk. The SO 2 emissions-based forecasting method is likely applicable to other open vent volcanoes experiencing dome-forming eruptions.

Frontiers in Earth Science↗
USGS2023

Estimates of volcanic mercury emissions from Redoubt Volcano, Augustine Volcano, and Mount Spurr eruption ash

Ash is a potential sink of volcanically sourced atmospheric mercury (Hg), and the concentration of particle-bound Hg may provide constraints on Hg emissions during eruptions. We analyze Hg concentrations in 227 bulk ash samples from the Mount Spurr (1992), Redoubt Volcano (2009), and Augustine Volcano (2006) volcanic eruptions to investigate large-scale spatial, temporal, and volcanic-source trends. We find no significant difference in Hg concentrations in bulk ash by distance or discrete eruptive events at each volcano, suggesting that in-plume reactions converting gaseous Hg 0 to adsorbed Hg 2+ are happening on shorter timescales than considered in this study (minutes) and any additional in-plume controls are not discernable within intra-volcanic sample variability. However, we do find a significant difference in Hg concentration of ash among volcanic sources, which indicates that volcanoes may emit comparatively high or low quantities of Hg. We combine our Hg findings with total mass estimates of ashfall deposits to calculate minimum, first-order Hg emissions of 8.23 t Hg for Mount Spurr (1992), 1.25 t Hg for Redoubt Volcano (2009), and 0.16 t Hg for Augustine Volcano (2006). In particular, we find that Mount Spurr is a high Hg emitting volcano, and that its 1992 particulate Hg emissions likely contributed substantially to the global eruptive volcanic Hg budget for that year. Based on our findings, previous approaches that use long-term Hg/SO 2 mass ratios to estimate eruptive total Hg under-account for Hg emitted in explosive events, and global volcanogenic Total Hg estimates need revisiting.

Alaska↗
USGS2023

Weak degassing from remote Alaska volcanoes characterized with a new airborne Imaging DOAS instrument and a suite of in situ sensors

Gas emissions from volcanoes occur when volatile species exsolve from magmatic and hydrothermal systems and make their way to the surface. Measurements of emitted gases therefore provide insights into volcanic processes. On 16 July 2021, we made airborne measurements of weak gas plumes emitted from four remote Alaska volcanoes: Iliamna Volcano, Mount Douglas, Mount Martin, and Mount Mageik. Integrated into a small fixed-wing aircraft, a new Imaging Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (DOAS) instrument was used to map the spatial extent of SO 2 plumes as they drifted downwind. Contrary to conventional Mobile DOAS instruments, which provide only a single viewing direction, the Imaging DOAS simultaneously measures SO 2 column density along 48 individual viewing directions oriented in a swath above or below the aircraft. Each of the individual measurements have a comparable precision and sensitivity to those obtained by conventional instruments. Together, they provide high resolution 2D imagery of the volcanic plumes and allow calculation of limited emission rate time series information. Although zenith-facing DOAS measurements achieve greater accuracy and are performed here, the application of the Imaging DOAS in a nadir-facing setup is also discussed and compared to satellite observations made in similar geometries. Also onboard the aircraft, a suite of electrochemical and optical sensors measured the relative abundances of the six major volcanic volatile species H 2 O, CO 2 , SO 2 , H 2 S, HCl, and HF as the aircraft passed through the plumes. Mean SO 2 emission rates of 90 ± 10, 20 ± 3, and 13 ± 3 t/d were measured at Iliamna Volcano, Mount Douglas, and Mount Martin, respectively. SO 2 emissions were below the DOAS detection limit at Mount Mageik but CO 2 and H 2 S could be measured with the in situ sensors. The information gleaned from these measurements was used to assess and compare activity at these volcanoes, all of which were found to be in a state of background degassing but whose emissions pointed to different source conditions ranging from mixed magmatic-hydrothermal to purely hydrothermal in character. Additional measurements at Mount Spurr, Redoubt Volcano, and Augustine Volcano failed to detect the very weak gas concentrations downwind of these persistently degassing vents.

Alaska↗
USGS2023

An algorithm for correction of atmospheric scattering dilution effects in volcanic gas emission measurements using skylight differential optical absorption spectroscopy

Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (DOAS) is commonly used to measure gas emissions from volcanoes. DOAS instruments measure the absorption of solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation scattered in the atmosphere by sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) and other trace gases contained in volcanic plumes. The standard spectral retrieval methods assume that all measured light comes from behind the plume and has passed through the plume along a straight line. However, a fraction of the light that reaches the instrument may have been scattered beneath the plume and thus has passed around it. Since this component does not contain the absorption signatures of gases in the plume, it effectively “dilutes” the measurements and causes underestimation of the gas abundance in the plume. This dilution effect is small for clean-air conditions and short distances between instrument and plume. However, plume measurements made at long distance and/or in conditions with significant atmospheric aerosol, haze, or clouds may be severely affected. Thus, light dilution is regarded as a major error source in DOAS measurements of volcanic degassing. Several attempts have been made to model the phenomena and the physical mechanisms are today relatively well understood. However, these models require knowledge of the local atmospheric aerosol composition and distribution, parameters that are almost always unknown. Thus, a practical algorithm to quantitatively correct for the dilution effect is still lacking. Here, we propose such an algorithm focused specifically on SO 2 measurements. The method relies on the fact that light absorption becomes non-linear for high SO 2 loads, and that strong and weak SO 2 absorption bands are unequally affected by the diluting signal. These differences can be used to identify when dilution is occurring. Moreover, if we assume that the spectral radiance of the diluting light is identical to the spectrum of light measured away from the plume, a measured clean air spectrum can be used to represent the dilution component. A correction can then be implemented by iteratively subtracting fractions of this clean air spectrum from the measured spectrum until the respective absorption signals on strong and weak SO 2 absorption bands are consistent with a single overhead SO 2 abundance. In this manner, we can quantify the magnitude of light dilution in each individual measurement spectrum as well as obtaining a dilution-corrected value for the SO 2 column density along the line of sight of the instrument. This paper first presents the theory behind the method, then discusses validation experiments using a radiative transfer model, as well as applications to field data obtained under different measurement conditions at three different locations; Fagradalsfjall located on the Reykjanaes peninsula in south Island, Manam located off the northeast coast of mainland Papua New Guinea and Holuhraun located in the inland of north east Island.

Frontiers in Earth Science↗
USGS2023

A new permanent, low-cost, low-power SO2 camera for continuous measurement of volcanic emissions

Since its introduction to volcanology in the mid-2000 s, the SO 2 camera has become an important instrument for the acquisition of accurate and high time-resolution SO 2 emission rates, aiding in hazard assessment and volcanological research. However, with the exception of a few locations (Stromboli, Etna, Kīlauea), hitherto the majority of measurements have been made on discrete field campaigns, which provide only brief snapshots into a volcano’s activity. Here, we present the development of a new, low-cost, low-power SO 2 camera for permanent deployment on volcanoes, facilitating long-term, quasi-continuous (daylight hours only) measurements. We then discuss preliminary datasets from Lascar and Kīlauea volcanoes, where instruments are now in continuous operation. Further proliferation of such instrumentation has the potential to greatly improve our understanding of the transient nature of volcanic activity, as well as aiding volcano monitoring/eruption forecasting.

Frontiers in Earth Science↗
USGS2023

Extrusion tectonism of Indochina reassessed: constraints from 40Ar/39Ar geochronology from the Day Nui Con Voi metamorphic massif, Vietnam

The extrusion tectonic model for the southeastern margin of the Himalayan orogeny links the crustal shear activity along the Red River Shear Zone (RRSZ) to the opening of the South China Sea (SCS). The Day Nui Con Voi (DNCV) metamorphic massif in northern Vietnam strikes NW-SE, is bounded by the RRSZ to the south and continues along the strike where it meets the SCS. The DNCV is thus a critical area to document thermotectonic history in order to advance our understanding of the tectonic evolution of Indochina extrusion and its relationship to the opening of the SCS. Our new 40 Ar/ 39 Ar data combined with microstructural and petrological analyses constrained the timing of the left-lateral shearing of the RRSZ and revealed the thermal evolution of the DNCV metamorphic massif. Three ductile deformation events were observed. D 1 formed NNW-SSE striking upright folds under granulite to upper amphibolite facies conditions. D 2 was a horizontal to sub-horizontal folding event that occurred at amphibolite facies conditions. D 3 was a doming event that formed NW-SE striking up-right folds bounded by left-lateral shearing mylonite belts along the two limbs. The S/C fabrics were defined by muscovite fish, quartz + albite + K-feldspar aggregates, and muscovite folia. The D 3 doming event exhumed the DNCV metamorphic massif from amphibolite facies conditions to the lower greenschist facies conditions. The 40 Ar/ 39 Ar ages obtained from amphibole (∼26 Ma), phlogopite (∼25 Ma), muscovites (∼24-23 Ma), biotite (∼25-23 Ma), and K-feldspars (∼25-22 Ma) from different structural domains of the DNCV metamorphic massif indicated a rapid exhumation ∼26–22 Ma. We interpreted this as the time period for the D 3 event, with the onset of left-lateral shearing occurring around 24 Ma based on ages obtained from syn-kinematic muscovites. This age was much younger than the initiation of sea-floor spreading of the SCS (since 32 Ma) but coincided with the age for the ridge jump event in the SCS. Based on these new data, we proposed that extrusion tectonism cannot be the cause for the initial opening of the SCS. Rather, the extrusion of the Indochina block was temporally correlative with the southward ridge jump event of the already opened SCS.

Day Nui Con Voi massif↗
USGS2023

Complex styles of phreatomagmatic explosions at Kīlauea Volcano, Hawaii, controlled by magma structure

Explosive eruptions at basaltic volcanoes remain poorly understood. Kīlauea Volcano is a type locality for basaltic eruptions and is well-known for effusive activity. However, more than 7 m of phreatomagmatic Keanakākoʻi Tephra unit D deposits from explosive eruptions crown the southern rim of the summit caldera and provide a stark reminder of Kīlauea’s explosive past and future potential. We used detailed field observations as well as granulometric and morphological analysis of 100 samples from two proximal sections to assess the eruption style and fragmentation mechanism. The deposits can be divided into four subunits, six different lithofacies, and contain three juvenile tephra components. Each juvenile component shows distinct shape variability resulting from molten fuel-coolant interaction (MFCI) explosions of magma of variable vesicularity. Fragmentation of dense glass generates olive-green ash, fragmentation of low to moderately vesicular magma generates a dark gray ash-lapilli component, and fragmentation of highly vesicular magma generates light-yellow pumice. Our work shows that magma structure impacts MFCI explosion efficiency. Small-scale planar bedding throughout most of the deposit points to a general eruption style of small, frequent explosions generating low plumes. Thicker beds of accretionary lapilli of fine-extremely fine ash are related to very efficient magma-water mixing. Pyroclastic density current (PDC) deposits in the upper part of the stratigraphy contain at least three flows but show no significant dune or cross-bedding structures. We suggest that this is a function of the vent being situated in a caldera that was then ∼600 m deep, where the caldera wall acted as a barrier and changed the flow dynamics to very dilute overspills and co-PDC plume falls over the wall. Deconvolution modeling of the polymodal grain size distributions is used to assess grain size changes of each juvenile component for this deposit, which greatly improves interpretation of lithofacies generation and eruption dynamics. Size-correlated shape parameters show that shape data across a wide size range are needed to accurately track grain shapes. This study demonstrates how careful examination of grain size and shape of juvenile tephra clasts can help volcanologists understand how effusive basaltic volcanoes can become violently explosive.

Hawaii↗
USGS2023

Volcanic earthquake catalog enhancement using integrated detection, matched-filtering, and relocation tools

Volcanic earthquake catalogs are an essential data product used to interpret subsurface volcanic activity and forecast eruptions. Advances in detection techniques (e.g., matched-filtering, machine learning) and relative relocation tools have improved catalog completeness and refined event locations. However, most volcano observatories have yet to incorporate these techniques into their catalog-building workflows. This is due in part to complexities in operationalizing, automating, and calibrating these techniques in a satisfactory way for disparate volcano networks and their varied seismicity. In an effort to streamline the integration of catalog-enhancing tools at the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO), we have integrated four popular open-source tools: REDPy, EQcorrscan, HypoDD, and GrowClust. The combination of these tools offers the capability of adding seismic event detections and relocating events in a single workflow. The workflow relies on a combination of standard triggering and cross-correlation clustering (REDPy) to consolidate representative templates used in matched-filtering (EQcorrscan). The templates and their detections are then relocated using the differential time methods provided by HypoDD and/or GrowClust. Our workflow also provides codes to incorporate campaign data at appropriate junctures, and calculate magnitude and frequency index for valid events. We apply this workflow to three datasets: the 2012–2013 seismic swarm sequence at Mammoth Mountain (California), the 2009 eruption of Redoubt Volcano (Alaska), and the 2006 eruption of Augustine Volcano (Alaska); and compare our results with previous studies at each volcano. In general, our workflow provides a significant increase in the number of events and improved locations, and we relate the event clusters and temporal progressions to relevant volcanic activity. We also discuss workflow implementation best practices, particularly in applying these tools to sparse volcano seismic networks. We envision that our workflow and the datasets presented here will be useful for detailed volcano analyses in monitoring and research efforts.

Alaska↗
USGS2023

Editorial: Volcanic forecasting, crisis management, and risk communication

Volcanic eruptions intermittently punctuate periods of repose at volcanic centers and fields. Forecasting the timing, style, distribution, and magnitude of these eruptions is difficult, because eruptive activity varies over time, commonly in an irregular way. Furthermore, the impacts of eruptions can include loss of lives, property damage, and social and economic disturbance, where every eruption produces different impacts. Mitigation of volcanic risk is therefore complex, requiring community action that is aided by preparedness actions of emergency managers, stakeholders, community leaders, and individuals, and by timely delivery and reception of hazard information during a crisis. This Research Topic addresses efforts to understand complexities in these relations dealing with volcanic unrest, eruptions, and eruption impacts. Research Topic range from eruption forecasting (Wild et al.; Christophersen et al.; Bernard et al.) and volcanic hazard assessment (Mead et al.) to risk communication and action (Martinez-Villegas et al.; Todesco et al.; Graham et al.; Bernard et al.) prior to and during volcanic crises. The studies use various methodologies and approaches, touching on various parts of the integrated, multi-partner systems that exist to improve risk mitigation.

Frontiers in Earth Science↗
USGS2024

Twenty years of explosive-effusive activity at El Reventador volcano (Ecuador) recorded in its geomorphology

Shifts in activity at long-active, open-vent volcanoes are difficult to forecast because precursory signals are enigmatic and can be lost in and amongst daily activity. Here, we propose that crater and vent morphologies, along with summit height, can help us bring some insights into future activity at one of Ecuador’s most active volcanoes El Reventador. On 3 November 2002, El Reventador volcano experienced the largest eruption in Ecuador in the last 140 years and has been continuously active ever since with transitions between and coexistence of explosive and effusive activity, characterized by Strombolian and Vulcanian behavior. Based on the analysis of a large dataset of thermal and visual images, we determined that in the last 20 years of activity, the volcano faced three destructive events: A. Destruction of the upper part of the summit leaving a north-south breached crater (3 November 2002), B. NE border crater collapse (2017), and C. NW flank collapse (2018), with two periods of reconstruction of the edifice: Period 1. Refill of the crater (2002-early 2018) and Period 2. Refill of the 2018 scar (April 2018–December 2022). Through photogrammetric analysis of visual and thermal images acquired in 11 overflights of the volcano, we created a time-series of digital elevation models (DEMs) to determine the maximum height of the volcano at each date, quantify the volume changes between successive dates, and characterize the morphological changes in the summit region. We estimate that approximately 34.1x10 6 m 3 of volcanic material was removed from the volcano due to destructive events, whereas 64.1x10 6 m 3 was added by constructive processes. The pre-2002 summit height was 3,560 m and due to the 2002 eruption it decreased to 3,527 m; it regained its previous height between 2014 and 2015 and the summit crater was completely filled by early April 2018. Event A resulted from an intrusion of magma that erupted violently; we proposed that Events B and C could be a result of an intrusion as well but may also be due to a lack of stability of the volcano summit which occurs when it reaches its maximum height of approximately 3,590 and 3,600 m.

El Reventador↗
USGS2023

Diving deeper into seep distribution along the Cascadia Convergent Margin, USA

Previous margin-wide studies of methane seep distribution along the Cascadia Subduction Zone indicate peaks in seep density within the landward limit of the of gas hydrate stability zone (GHSZ; ≤500 m depth), suggesting a link between current ocean warming, acceleration of hydrate dissociated, and methane emissions. This inferred connection, however, may not account for regional geologic and/or structural complexities driving methane seepage. Expanding upon an existing seep database by adding new seeps data, we conducted statistical and spatial analyses to determine margin-wide distribution trends and offer a tectonic framework for understanding the tendency toward non-normality and spatial clustering. We then highlight the role of local-scale drivers of seep formation in addition to the first-order tectonic framework, using systematic geologic/geomorphic characterization of seep emission sites in southern Cascadia and case studies using meta-attribute analysis of seismic reflection data.. Seep distribution along the margin is non-random, but instead of clustering along the 500-m isobath, regions of high seep density occur in canyons and topographic highs. New findings from this study conclude that co-location of the outer arc high (OAH) and the landward limit of the GHSZ may explain high concentrations of seeps where deformation is the greatest and hydrates are unstable. Detailed analysis of the spatial relationships between seep sites and geologic-geomorphic features in southern Cascadia reveal a link between seeps and anticlines, with 52% of the seeps found in association with anticlines, 36% found at faults, 16% associated with canyons, and 11% at seafloor failure scarps. Given that a majority of anticlines are located along or seaward of the OAH in the actively deforming outer wedge, we suggest that the location of the OAH is a primary structural control on seep distribution. This scenario is supported by neural network analysis of multichannel seismic data revealing zones of probable fluid migration along vertical pipes, faults, and chimneys in the vicinity of active seep sites on anticlines. Determining linkages between seeps and submarine tectonic geomorphology is a crucial first step for understanding and forecasting the distribution of methane seepage, but also a necessity for evaluating causal relationships between ocean warming and gas-hydrate stability.

California, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2023

Current and future sinkhole susceptibility in karst and pseudokarst areas of the conterminous United States

Sinkholes in karst and pseudokarst regions threaten infrastructure, property, and lives. We mapped closed depressions in karst and pseudokarst regions of the conterminous United States (U.S.) from 10-m-resolution elevation data using high-performance computing, and then created a heuristic additive model of sinkhole susceptibility that also included nationally consistent data for factors related to geology, soils, precipitation extremes, and development. Maps identify potential sinkhole hotspots based on current conditions and projections for 50 years into the future (the years 2070–2079) based on climate change and urban development scenarios. Areas characterized as having either high or very high sinkhole susceptibility contain 94%–99% of known or probable sinkhole locations from three U.S. state databases. States and counties with the highest amounts and percentages of land in zones of highest sinkhole susceptibility are identified. Projected changes in extreme precipitation and development did not substantially change current hotspots of highest sinkhole susceptibility. Results provide a uniform index of sinkhole potential that can support national planning, instead of existing assessments produced through various methods within individual states or smaller areas.

conterminous United States↗