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USGS2024

Peak streamflow trends in Illinois and their relation to changes in climate, water years 1921–2020

This report characterizes changes in peak streamflow in Illinois and the relation of these changes to climatic variability, and provides a foundation for future studies that can address nonstationarity in peak-flow frequency analysis in Illinois. Records of annual peak and daily streamflow at streamgages and gridded monthly climatic data (observed and modeled) were examined across four trend periods (100 years, water years 1921–2020; 75 years, 1946–2020; 50 years, 1971–2020; 30 years 1991–2020) for trends, change points, and other statistical properties indicative of changing conditions. Median peak streamflows generally exhibit upward trends across the State for the 100- and 75-year trend periods and in northern and southern Illinois for the 50- and 30-year trend periods. The medians of the trend magnitudes (normalized by median peak streamflow) range from a 23-percent increase during the 30-year trend period to a 41-percent increase during the 100-year trend period. Streamgages with trends in peak streamflow often also have change points, or abrupt changes, in streamflow magnitude. More than two-thirds of streamgages at the 100- and 75-year trend periods exhibit a trend and change point in median peak streamflow in the same direction. Temporally, clusters of change points are observed in the late 1960s through early 1980s for the 100- and 75-year trend periods and around 2006 for the 50- and 30-year trend periods. Trends in the 90-percent quantile of peak streamflow, which correspond to the 10-percent exceedance probability often used for the design of drainage structures, increased about the same amount as the 50-percent quantile peak streamflows, except at the 100-year trend period, where the 50-percent quantile peak flow increased more for almost all streamgages. The frequency of high flows has also increased in Illinois, with increases in peaks-over-threshold observed across much of the State for the 100- and 75-year trend periods and in northern and southern Illinois for the 50- and 30-year trend periods. Upward trends in observed temperature and observed annual precipitation dominate in all trend periods, with clusters of likely upward trends observed in northern and southern Illinois at the 50- and 30-year trend periods. As expected in response to increasing temperature, the modeled proportion of precipitation falling as snow has largely decreased in the study basins across the State, and modeled potential evapotranspiration has increased. Upward trends in modeled annual runoff, which in this report incorporates only the effects of climatic variation, are observed in the same geographic areas where there are increases in observed annual precipitation. The widespread upward trends in the magnitude of median peak streamflows and the frequency with which high flows occur across the State at the 100- and 75-year trend periods and in northern and southern Illinois at the 50- and 30-year trend periods appear to be driven largely by increases in precipitation based on spatial patterns of these changes and statistical relations between streamflow and climate metrics. Other effects not considered in this report, like urbanization, may be important drivers for certain streamgages in the State. The prevalence of nonstationarity in peak streamflow in Illinois has important implications for peak-flow frequency analysis. Average annual precipitation and the occurrence of extreme precipitation events are expected to increase across the State. If precipitation continues to increase as expected, peak-flow frequency estimates based on older records may no longer represent the hydrologic regime of today, and methods for nonstationary peak-flow frequency analysis may be needed.

Illinois↗

USGS2010

Estimation of selected streamflow statistics for a network of low-flow partial-record stations in areas affected by Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) in Maryland

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Maryland Department of the Environment, operated a network of 20 low-flow partial-record stations during 2008 in a region that extends from southwest of Baltimore to the northeastern corner of Maryland to obtain estimates of selected streamflow statistics at the station locations. The study area is expected to face a substantial influx of new residents and businesses as a result of military and civilian personnel transfers associated with the Federal Base Realignment and Closure Act of 2005. The estimated streamflow statistics, which include monthly 85-percent duration flows, the 10-year recurrence-interval minimum base flow, and the 7-day, 10-year low flow, are needed to provide a better understanding of the availability of water resources in the area to be affected by base-realignment activities. Streamflow measurements collected for this study at the low-flow partial-record stations and measurements collected previously for 8 of the 20 stations were related to concurrent daily flows at nearby index streamgages to estimate the streamflow statistics. Three methods were used to estimate the streamflow statistics and two methods were used to select the index streamgages. Of the three methods used to estimate the streamflow statistics, two of them--the Moments and MOVE1 methods--rely on correlating the streamflow measurements at the low-flow partial-record stations with concurrent streamflows at nearby, hydrologically similar index streamgages to determine the estimates. These methods, recommended for use by the U.S. Geological Survey, generally require about 10 streamflow measurements at the low-flow partial-record station. The third method transfers the streamflow statistics from the index streamgage to the partial-record station based on the average of the ratios of the measured streamflows at the partial-record station to the concurrent streamflows at the index streamgage. This method can be used with as few as one pair of streamflow measurements made on a single streamflow recession at the low-flow partial-record station, although additional pairs of measurements will increase the accuracy of the estimates. Errors associated with the two correlation methods generally were lower than the errors associated with the flow-ratio method, but the advantages of the flow-ratio method are that it can produce reasonably accurate estimates from streamflow measurements much faster and at lower cost than estimates obtained using the correlation methods. The two index-streamgage selection methods were (1) selection based on the highest correlation coefficient between the low-flow partial-record station and the index streamgages, and (2) selection based on Euclidean distance, where the Euclidean distance was computed as a function of geographic proximity and the basin characteristics: drainage area, percentage of forested area, percentage of impervious area, and the base-flow recession time constant, t. Method 1 generally selected index streamgages that were significantly closer to the low-flow partial-record stations than method 2. The errors associated with the estimated streamflow statistics generally were lower for method 1 than for method 2, but the differences were not statistically significant. The flow-ratio method for estimating streamflow statistics at low-flow partial-record stations was shown to be independent from the two correlation-based estimation methods. As a result, final estimates were determined for eight low-flow partial-record stations by weighting estimates from the flow-ratio method with estimates from one of the two correlation methods according to the respective variances of the estimates. Average standard errors of estimate for the final estimates ranged from 90.0 to 7.0 percent, with an average value of 26.5 percent. Average standard errors of estimate for the weighted estimates were, on average, 4.3 percent less than the best average standard errors of estima

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2008

Anthropogenic organic compounds in source water of nine community water systems that withdraw from streams, 2002-05

Source water, herein defined as stream water collected at a water-system intake prior to water treatment, was sampled at nine community water systems, ranging in size from a system serving about 3,000 people to one that serves about 2 million people. As many as 17 source-water samples were collected at each site over about a 12-month period between 2002 and 2004 for analysis of 258 anthropogenic organic compounds. Most of these compounds are unregulated in drinking water, and the compounds analyzed include pesticides and selected pesticide degradates, gasoline hydrocarbons, personal-care and domestic-use compounds, and solvents. The laboratory analytical methods used in this study have relatively low detection levels - commonly 100 to 1,000 times lower than State and Federal standards and guidelines for protecting water quality. Detections, therefore, do not necessarily indicate a concern to human health but rather help to identify emerging issues and to track changes in occurrence and concentrations over time. About one-half (134) of the compounds were detected at least once in source-water samples. Forty-seven compounds were detected commonly (in 10 percent or more of the samples), and six compounds (chloroform, atrazine, simazine, metolachlor, deethylatrazine, and hexahydrohexamethylcyclopentabenzopyran (HHCB) were detected in more than one-half of the samples. Chloroform was the most commonly detected compound - in every sample (year round) at five sites. Findings for chloroform and the fragrances HHCB and acetyl hexamethyl tetrahydronaphthalene (AHTN) indicate an association between occurrence and the presence of large upstream wastewater discharges in the watersheds. The herbicides atrazine, simazine, and metolachlor also were among the most commonly detected compounds. Degradates of these herbicides, as well as those of a few other commonly occurring herbicides, generally were detected at concentrations similar to or greater than concentrations of the parent compound. Samples typically contained mixtures of two or more compounds. The total number of compounds and their total concentration in samples generally increased with the amount of urban and agricultural land use in a watershed. Annual mean concentrations of all compounds were less than human-health benchmarks. Single-sample concentrations of anthropogenic organic compounds in source water generally were less than 0.1 microgram per liter and less than established human-health benchmarks. Human-health benchmarks used for comparison were U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) Maximum Contaminant Levels (MCLs) for regulated compounds and U.S. Geological Survey Health-Based Screening Levels for unregulated compounds. About one-half of all detected compounds do not have human-health benchmarks or adequate toxicity information for evaluating results in a human-health context. During a second sampling phase (2004-05), source water and finished water (water that has passed through all the treatment processes but prior to distribution) were sampled at eight of the nine community water systems. Water-treatment processes differ among the systems. Specifically, treatment at five of the systems is conventional, typically including steps of coagulation, flocculation, sedimentation, filtration, and disinfection. One water system uses slow sand filtration and disinfection, a second system uses ozone as a preliminary treatment step to conventional treatment, and a third system is a direct filtration treatment plant that uses many of the steps employed in conventional treatment. Most of these treatment steps are not designed specifically to remove the compounds monitored in this study. About two-thirds of the compounds detected commonly in source water were detected at similar frequencies in finished water. Although the water-treatment steps differ somewhat among the eight water systems, the amount of change in concentration of the compounds from source- to finish

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2016

Budgets and chemical characterization of groundwater for the Diamond Valley flow system, central Nevada, 2011–12

The Diamond Valley flow system consists of six hydraulically connected hydrographic areas in central Nevada. The general down-gradient order of the areas are southern and northern Monitor Valleys, Antelope Valley, Kobeh Valley, Stevens Basin, and Diamond Valley. Groundwater flow in the Diamond Valley flow system terminates at a large playa in the northern part of Diamond Valley. Concerns relating to continued water-resources development of the flow system resulted in a phased hydrologic investigation that began in 2005 by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with Eureka County. This report presents the culmination of the phased investigation to increase understanding of the groundwater resources of the basin-fill aquifers in the Diamond Valley flow system through evaluations of groundwater chemistry and budgets. Groundwater chemistry was characterized using major ions and stable isotopes from groundwater and precipitation samples. Groundwater budgets accounted for all inflows, outflows, and changes in storage, and were developed for pre-development (pre-1950) and recent (average annual 2011–12) conditions. Major budget components include groundwater discharge by evapotranspiration and groundwater withdrawals; groundwater recharge by precipitation, and interbasin flow; and storage change. Groundwater in the basin-fill aquifer of the Diamond Valley flow system was mostly a calcium or sodium bicarbonate water type and generally within acceptable drinking-water standards. The general water type was similar among the individual hydrographic areas. Stable isotopes of oxygen-18 and deuterium from precipitation varied seasonally, such that enrichment from evaporation was greater during warmer months than cooler months. The isotopic signature of shallow groundwater was similar to cool season precipitation, indicating recharge was relatively recent (similar to recent climatic conditions) and was derived from cool season precipitation. Site-scale groundwater evapotranspiration was estimated from eddy-covariance and micrometeorological measurements collected at four sites and ranged from 0.15 feet per year in sparse, undisturbed shrubland to 1.13 feet per year in a grassland meadow. Vegetation indices calculated from satellite imagery and field mapping were used to define three evapotranspiration units (shrubland, grassland, and playa) and to extrapolate site-scale groundwater evapotranspiration rates to basin-scale estimates. Annual pre-development groundwater evapotranspiration for individual hydrographic areas ranged from 2,900 acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr) in northern Monitor Valley to 35,000 acre-ft/yr in Diamond Valley. Total groundwater evapotranspiration from the Diamond Valley flow system under pre-development conditions was about 70,000 acre-ft/yr. Areas of irrigated land in the Diamond Valley flow system increased from less than 5,000 acres in the early 1960s to more than 25,000 acres in 2012 and are mostly for growing alfalfa in southern Diamond Valley. Annual (2011–12) net groundwater withdrawals for irrigation, assumed to be the volume of groundwater consumed by crops and pastureland, ranged from about 420 acre-ft/yr in Antelope Valley to 67,000 acre-ft/yr in Diamond Valley. Total net groundwater withdrawals for irrigation in the Diamond Valley flow system were about 69,000 acre-ft/yr (2011–12). Groundwater recharge, the largest inflow component to the Diamond Valley flow system, was determined as the sum of groundwater evapotranspiration and net subsurface outflow (subsurface outflow minus subsurface inflow). Annual groundwater recharge estimates ranged from 200 acre-ft/yr in Stevens Basin to 35,000 acre-ft/yr in Diamond Valley. Subsurface flow between hydrographic basins was evaluated using estimated transmissivity, groundwater-flow sections derived from remotely sensed imagery, and hydraulic gradients determined from 2012 water-level data. Subsurface outflow ranged from 0 acre-ft/yr for Diamond Valley to 3,400 acre-ft/yr for northern Monitor Valley into western Kobeh Valley. Subsurface inflow ranged from 0 acre-ft/yr for southern Monitor Valley to 4,200 acre-ft/yr for Kobeh Valley from northern Monitor and Antelope Valleys. The pre-development, steady state, groundwater budget for the Diamond Valley flow system was estimated at about 70,000 acre-ft/yr of inflow and outflow. During years 2011–12, inflow components of groundwater recharge from precipitation and subsurface inflow from adjacent basins totaled 70,000 acre-ft/yr for the DVFS, whereas outflow components included 64,000 acre-ft/yr of groundwater evapotranspiration and 69,000 acre-ft/yr of net groundwater withdrawals, or net pumpage. Spring discharge in northern Diamond Valley declined about 6,000 acre-ft/yr between pre-development time and years 2011–12. Assuming net groundwater withdrawals minus spring flow decline is equivalent to the storage change, the 2011–12 summation of inflow and storage change was balanced with outflow at about 133,000 acre-ft/yr.

Nevada↗

USGS2007

Surface-Water Hydrology and Quality at the Pike Hill Superfund Site, Corinth, Vermont, October 2004 to December 2005

The hydrology and quality of surface water in and around the Pike Hill Brook watershed, in Corinth, Vermont, was studied from October 2004 to December 2005 by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA). Pike Hill was mined intermittently for copper from 1847 to 1919 and the site is known to be contributing trace elements and acidity to Pike Hill Brook and an unnamed tributary to Cookville Brook. The site has been listed as a Superfund site since 2004. Streamflow, specific conductance, pH, and water temperature were measured continuously and monthly at three sites on Pike Hill Brook to determine the variation in these parameters over an annual cycle. Synoptic water-quality sampling was done at 10 stream sites in October 2004, April 2005, and June 2005 and at 13 stream sites in August 2005 to characterize the quality of surface water in the watershed on a seasonal and spatial basis, as well as to assess the effects of wetlands on water quality. Samples for analysis of benthic macroinvertebrate populations were collected at 11 stream sites in August 2005. Water samples were analyzed for 5 major ions and 32 trace elements. Concentrations of trace elements at sites in the Pike Hill Brook watershed exceeded USEPA National Recommended Water Quality Criteria acute and chronic toxicity standards for aluminum, iron, cadmium, copper, and zinc. Concentrations of copper exceeded the chronic criteria in an unnamed tributary to Cookville Brook in one sample. Concentrations of sulfate, calcium, aluminum, iron, cadmium, copper, and zinc decreased with distance from a site directly downstream from the mine (site 1), as a result of dilution and through sorption and precipitation of the trace elements. Maximum concentrations of aluminum, iron, cadmium, copper, and zinc were observed during spring snowmelt. Concentrations of sulfate, calcium, cadmium, copper, and zinc, and instantaneous loads of calcium and aluminum were statistically different (p<0.05) among the three continuously monitored sites (sites 1, 4, and 5). Instantaneous loads of aluminum, iron, and copper decreased by one to three orders of magnitude from site 1 to a site 1.1 mi downstream (site 4). Instantaneous loads of sulfate were similar between sites 1, 4, and at a site 3 mi downstream (site 5). Instantaneous loads of cadmium and zinc were similar between sites 1 and 4, and loads of iron and copper were similar between sites 4 and 5. Loads of chemical constituents were compared at site 1 (closest to the mine waste piles) and site 5 (near the mouth of Pike Hill Brook and below a majority of the wetlands). Annually, the loads of dissolved cadmium and zinc at site 1 were about five times greater than loads at site 5, and the load of dissolved copper at site 1 was about 17 times greater than at site 5. The ratio of loads for dissolved cadmium, copper, and zinc to total cadmium, copper, and zinc at site 1 was about 1. Samples collected in Pike Hill Brook upstream and downstream from the wetlands during low flows in August 2005 showed that oxidation of ferrous iron and precipitation of iron-hydroxides were probably not affecting trace metals in the wetlands through sorption; however, a significant portion of the iron entering the wetlands was in particulate form and may have transported sorbed copper and other trace metals. Thus, aerobic activity in the wetlands was probably not affecting metal cycling in the watershed. Concentrations and loads of sulfate may be unlikely to define unequivocally the role of the wetlands with regard to anaerobic bacterial sulfate reduction; however, bacterial sulfate removal may have affected loads of sulfate. Loads of copper increased downstream from the wetlands and may reflect the reductive dissolution of ferric hydroxide particulates in anaerobic parts of the wetlands.Concentrations of dissolved iron increased downstream from the wetlands. The most apparent effects on the macroinvertebr

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2022

Characterization of ambient groundwater quality within a statewide, fixed-station monitoring network in Pennsylvania, 2015–19

Pennsylvania leads the Nation in the number of individuals that use groundwater for private domestic water supply; more than 3 million rural and suburban Pennsylvania residents rely on private domestic supplies for drinking water. These supplies are not regulated nor routinely monitored; thus relevant groundwater-quality information is not widely available. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (PaDEP) Safe Drinking Water Bureau, established a statewide, fixed-station ambient groundwater quality network in 2015. The goals for the Pennsylvania Groundwater Monitoring Network (GWMN) include characterizing ambient groundwater quality conditions in rural areas of the State and documenting potential changes in conditions over time. Seventeen wells were selected for monitoring at 6-month intervals beginning in 2015. Since then, several wells have been added to the GWMN, bringing the total number of wells sampled in the fall of 2019 to 28. Routinely monitored constituents included physical characteristics and chemical concentrations in filtered and unfiltered samples (major and trace elements, nutrients, and organic compounds). Samples for volatile organic compounds (VOCs), radionuclides, and dissolved hydrocarbon gases were collected during the first sampling event at each well. To offer insights on the quality of groundwater used for domestic supply in Pennsylvania, summary statistics for the 221 GWMN samples collected during 2015–19 are compared to U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) drinking-water standards, which are applicable to public water supplies. Results show that samples across the GWMN generally meet drinking-water standards for inorganic and organic constituents; however, a percentage of samples had concentrations that exceeded maximum contaminant level (MCL) thresholds for nitrate (3 percent) and secondary maximum contaminant level (SMCL) thresholds for iron (32 percent), manganese (36 percent), and aluminum (5 percent). Radon-222 activities, which were sampled only during the initial visit to a well, exceeded the lower proposed drinking water standard of 300 picocuries per liter (pCi/L) in 64 percent of wells in the GWMN; additionally, 7 percent of wells exceeded the higher proposed standard of 4,000 pCi/L. There were no exceedances for VOCs, but one well had a tribromomethane detection. Three wells had detectable concentrations of methane, with one sample exceeding the Pennsylvania action level of 7 milligrams per liter (mg/L). The pH and dissolved oxygen concentrations varied widely across the GWMN and were correlated with dissolved metal concentrations and other chemical characteristics of groundwater samples. Considering all samples collected for the study, the pH ranged from 4.2 to 8.3; 42 percent of pH values were either above or below the SMCL range of 6.5–8.5. The highest pH values resulted from contamination of loose grout used in the construction of one well and decreased to levels consistent with other wells in the vicinity after repeated sampling rounds. Dissolved oxygen (DO), which ranged from 0 to 13.9 mg/L, influences the mobility and prevalence of constituents with variable oxidation state, including iron, manganese, and nitrogen species. Samples with acidic pH (less than 6.5) and (or) low DO had the highest concentrations of manganese and iron, whereas those with neutral to alkaline pH values had the highest concentrations of calcium, magnesium, sodium, and other major ions. Analysis of major ions indicates that calcium/bicarbonate water types are the most common, with a few characterized as calcium/chloride or sodium/chloride, and most others as mixed water types including calcium-magnesium/bicarbonate, sodium-magnesium/bicarbonate, and sodium/bicarbonate-chloride. Nonparametric statistical methods were used to evaluate the data for spatial and temporal trends. A principal components analysis (PCA) model developed with ranked data values for the entire network resulted in three components, (1) dissolved solids, (2) redox, and (3) sodium-chloride, which explained 74.5 percent of variance in the dataset. On the basis of individual contributions to the PCA, certain wells were identified through hierarchical cluster analysis that shared relevant water-quality characteristics. The spatial distribution of sampling locations and the temporal trends of constituent concentrations indicate that hydrogeologic setting and topographic position as defined in the PCA model are important factors affecting the spatial and temporal patterns of groundwater quality in the GWMN.

Pennsylvania↗

USGS2010

Analysis of the Shallow Groundwater Flow System at Fire Island National Seashore, Suffolk County, New York

Fire Island National Seashore (FIIS) occupies 42 kilometers of the barrier island for which it is named that lies off the southern shore of Suffolk County, N.Y. Freshwater in the highly permeable, sandy aquifer underlying Fire Island is bounded laterally by marine surface waters and at depth by saline groundwater. Interspersed throughout FIIS are 17 pre-existing residential communities that in summer months greatly increase in population through the arrival of summer residents and vacationers; in addition, the National Park Service (NPS) has established several facilities on the island to accommodate visitors to FIIS. The 2.2 million people estimated by the NPS to visit Fire Island annually impact groundwater quality through the release of waste-derived contaminants, such as nutrients, pathogens, and organic compounds, into the environment. Waste-contaminated groundwater can move through the aquifer and threaten the ecological health of the adjacent back-barrier estuaries to which much of the groundwater ultimately discharges. In 2004, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the NPS, began a 3-year investigation to (1) collect groundwater levels and water-quality (nutrient) samples, (2) develop a three-dimensional model of the shallow (water-table) aquifer system and adjacent marine surface waters, and (3) calculate nitrogen loads in simulated groundwater discharges from the aquifer to back-barrier estuaries and the ocean. The hydrogeology of the shallow aquifer system was characterized from the results of exploratory drilling, geophysical surveying, water-level monitoring, and water-quality sampling. The investigation focused on four areas-the communities of Kismet and Robbins Rest, the NPS Visitor Center at Watch Hill, and the undeveloped Otis Pike Fire Island High Dune Wilderness. Thirty-five observation wells were installed within FIIS to characterize subsurface hydrogeology and establish a water-table monitoring network in the four study areas. A variable-density model of the shallow aquifer system and adjacent marine surface waters was developed to simulate groundwater flow patterns and rates. Nitrogen loads from the shallow aquifer system were calculated from representative total nitrogen (TN) concentrations and simulated groundwater discharges to back-barrier estuaries and the ocean. The model simulates groundwater directions, velocities, and discharge rates under 2005 mean annual conditions. Groundwater budgets were developed for recharge areas of similar land use that contribute freshwater to back-barrier estuaries, the ocean, and subsea-discharge zones. Total freshwater discharge from the shallow aquifer system is about 43,500 cubic meters per day (m3/d) (79.8 percent) to back-barrier estuaries and about 10,200 m3/d (18.7 percent) to the ocean; about 836 m3/d (1.5 percent) may exit the system as subsea underflow. The total contribution of fresh groundwater to shoreline discharge zones amounts to about 53,700 m3/d (98.5 percent). The median age of freshwater discharged to back-barrier estuaries and the ocean was 3.4 years, and the 95th-percentile age was 20 years. The TN concentrations and loads under 2005 mean annual conditions for areas that contribute fresh groundwater to back-barrier estuaries and the ocean were calculated for the principal land uses on Fire Island. The overall TN load from the shallow aquifer system to shoreline discharge zones is about 16,200 kilograms per year (kg/yr) (82.2 percent) to back-barrier estuaries and about 3,500 kg/yr (17.8 percent) to the ocean. The overall TN load to marine surface waters amounts to about 19,700 kg/yr-roughly 6 percent of the annual TN load from shallow groundwater entering the South Shore Estuary Reserve (SSER) from the Suffolk County mainland, which is about 345,000 kg/yr. In contrast to the TN load from shallow groundwater for the SSER watershed, which annually yields about 353 kilograms per square kilometer (kg/km2), the overall TN loa

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2008

Environmental factors affecting mercury in Camp Far West Reservoir, California, 2001-03

This report documents water quality in Camp Far West Reservoir from October 2001 through August 2003. The reservoir, located at approximately 300 feet above sea level in the foothills of the northwestern Sierra Nevada, California, is a monomictic lake characterized by extreme drawdown in the late summer and fall. Thermal stratification in summer and fall is coupled with anoxic conditions in the hypolimnion. Water-quality sampling was done at approximately 3-month intervals on eight occasions at several stations in the reservoir, including a group of three stations along a flow path in the reservoir: an upstream station in the Bear River arm (principal tributary), a mid-reservoir station in the thalweg (prereservoir river channel), and a station in the deepest part of the reservoir, in the thalweg near Camp Far West Dam. Stations in other tributary arms of the reservoir included those in the Rock Creek arm of the reservoir, a relatively low-flow tributary, and the Dairy Farm arm, a small tributary that receives acidic, metal-rich drainage seasonally from the inactive Dairy Farm Mine, which produced copper, zinc, and gold from underground workings and a surface pit. Several water-quality constituents varied significantly by season at all sampling stations, including major cations and anions, total mercury (filtered and unfiltered samples), nitrogen (ammonia plus organic), and total phosphorus. A strong seasonal signal also was observed for the sulfurisotope composition of aqueous sulfate from filtered water. Although there were some spatial differences in water quality, the seasonal variations were more profound. Concentrations of total mercury (filtered and unfiltered water) were highest during fall and winter; these concentrations decreased at most stations during spring and summer. Anoxic conditions developed in deep parts of the reservoir during summer and fall in association with thermal stratification. The highest concentrations of methylmercury in unfiltered water were observed in samples collected during summer from deepwater stations in the anoxic hypolimnion. In the shallow (less than 14 meters depth) oxic epilimnion, concentrations of methylmercury in unfiltered water were highest during the spring and lowest during the fall. The ratio of methylmercury to total mercury (MeHg/HgT) increased systematically from winter to spring to summer, largely in response to the progressive seasonal decrease in total mercury concentrations, but also to some extent because of increases in MeHg concentrations during summer. Water-quality data for Camp Far West Reservoir are used in conjunction with data from linked studies of sediment and biota to develop and refine a conceptual model for mercury methylation and bioaccumulation in the reservoir and the lower Bear River watershed. It is hypothesized that MeHg is produced by sulfate-reducing bacteria in the anoxic parts of the water column and in shallow bed sediment. Conditions were optimal for this process during late summer and fall. Previous work has indicated that Camp Far West Reservoir is a phosphate-limited system - molar ratios of inorganic nitrogen to inorganic phosphorus in filtered water were consistently greater than 16 (the Redfield ratio), sometimes by orders of magnitude. Therefore, concentrations of orthophosphate were expectedly very low or below detection at all stations during all seasons. It is further hypothesized that iron-reducing bacteria facilitate release of phosphorus from iron-rich sediments during summer and early fall, stimulating phytoplankton growth in the fall and winter, and that the MeHg produced in the hypolimnion and metalimnion is released to the entire water column in the late fall during reservoir destratification (vertical mixing). Mercury bioaccumulation factors (BAF) were computed using data from linked studies of biota spanning a range of trophic position: zooplankton, midge larvae, mayfly nymphs, crayfish, threadfin shad, bluegill,

California↗

USGS2024

Peak streamflow trends in Missouri and their relation to changes in climate, water years 1921–2020

This report characterizes changes in peak streamflow in Missouri and the relation of these changes to climatic variability, and provides a foundation for future studies that can address nonstationarity in peak-streamflow frequency analysis in Missouri. Records of annual peak and daily streamflow at streamgages and gridded monthly climatic data (observed and modeled) were examined across four trend periods (100 years, water years 1921–2020; 75 years, 1946–2020; 50 years, 1971–2020; and 30 years, 1991–2020) for trends, change points (abrupt changes in the streamflow time series), and other statistical properties indicative of changing conditions. Peak streamflow magnitudes generally exhibit upward trends across the State for the 100-, 75-, and 50-year trend periods and only in southern Missouri for the 30-year trend period. The medians of the trend magnitudes (normalized by median peak streamflow) range from a 10-percent increase during the 30-year trend period to a 40-percent increase during the 100-year trend period. Changes in the 90-percent quantile of peak streamflow, which correspond to the 10-percent exceedance probability often used for the design of drainage structures, are not as substantial or widespread, showing consistent increases mainly in the southern part of the State in the 50- and 30-year trend periods. Streamgages with trends in peak streamflow often also have change points, or abrupt changes, in streamflow magnitude. Change points in peak streamflows generally follow that of the peak streamflow trends, with upward change points throughout most of the State at the 100- and 75-year trend periods and in southern Missouri at the 30-year trend period. Temporally, clusters upward of change points are observed in the 1970s through 1980s for the 100-, 75-, and 50-year trend periods and around 2006 and 2007 for the 50- and 30-year trend periods. A peaks-over-threshold analysis, which evaluates changes in the frequency of peak streamflows over a certain threshold, indicates that high flows have increased in frequency at 50 to 64 percent of streamgages in the 100- and 75-year trend periods. Most streamgages in the 50- and 30-year trend periods exhibit no change. Although the frequency of high flows has increased at some streamgages and trend periods in Missouri, these increases are not as widespread as the increases in the magnitude of peak streamflow. Upward trends in observed temperature and observed annual precipitation dominate in all trend periods, with no downward trends in precipitation and only two somewhat likely downward trends in temperature for the 100-year trend period. Increases in annual precipitation mostly are limited to southern Missouri for the 30-year trend period. The proportion of precipitation falling as snow has largely decreased in the study basins across the State, which is expected in response to increasing temperature. Upward trends in modeled annual runoff, which in this study incorporates only the effects of climatic variation, are observed in the same geographic areas where there are increases in observed annual precipitation. When peak streamflow and climatic trends are considered together, widespread upward trends in peak streamflows for the 100-, 75-, and 50-year trend periods and for the 30-year trend period mainly in southern Missouri (encompassing both trends and abrupt change) appear to be driven largely by increases in precipitation based on spatial patterns and statistical relations. The prevalence of nonstationarity in peak streamflow in Missouri has important implications for peak-flow frequency analysis. Winter and spring precipitation and the occurrence of extreme precipitation events are expected to increase across the State. If precipitation continues to increase as expected, peak-flow frequency estimates based on older records may no longer represent the hydrologic regime of today, and methods for nonstationary peak-flow frequency analysis may be needed.

Missouri↗

USGS2024

Estimated reductions in phosphorus loads from removal of leaf litter in the Lake Champlain drainage area, Vermont

Excess nutrient loading and other factors are driving eutrophication and other negative effects on water-quality conditions in Lake Champlain and other receiving waters in Vermont. Two common best management practices were evaluated to determine how these practices can be optimized by targeting maintenance and operation to align better with seasonally driven needs, specifically to help municipalities remove a greater proportion of seasonal leaves and organic debris, reduce nutrient loading, and achieve water-quality goals. To characterize solid materials typically removed by the municipal BMPs of catch-basin (CB) cleaning and street cleaning (SC), subsamples of CB and SC materials were collected each month from nine participating municipalities in central and northwestern Vermont between September 2017 and November 2018. Monthly and seasonal composites of CB and SC samples were created from the subsamples of available materials from all municipalities. Samples were analyzed for concentrations of total organic carbon, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, and total phosphorus (P), and separated into three particle-size fractions. Distribution of particle-size fractions was similar between CB and SC as both practices generally collect the coarser fraction of solid materials (greater than 125 micrometers in diameter). In the fall, however, the range of the coarser fraction of materials increased. This is attributed to the ability of SC to collect leaves and other light organic materials that commonly pass through a CB system designed to trap heavier materials. Total organic carbon, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, and total P concentrations were highest in the catch-basin samples in the fall of 2017, and concentrations in the SC samples were highest in the fall of 2018. The collection of fewer samples in 2017 may account for some of the variability between fall 2017 and fall 2018 results. A subset of SC samples collected from piles representing specific street-cleaning routes in September and November 2018 were also analyzed. Materials collected in November were dominated by leaves, and the concentrations of the analyzed species of carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus in some samples were more than double those in samples collected on the same street-cleaning routes in September. The Vermont Department of Environmental Conservation and the University of Vermont developed estimates of load-reduction credits for CB and SC practices based on a policy developed by the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources that determined the potential for credits associated with leaf-removal activities. This process also considered BMPs that were initiated during the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Lake Champlain Basin Total Maximum Daily Load monitoring period (2000 to 2009) and adapted the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources policies to apply to existing SC routes in the cooperating Vermont municipalities that possessed at least 17 percent tree cover. This exercise demonstrated that applying the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources policy to existing street-cleaning routes possessing 17 percent or more tree cover would result in reductions in total P loads up to 65 percent of mandated target reductions, and about a 25 percent reduction on average. Continuous simulations of stormwater runoff volume, and of loads of suspended sediments and total P, also were created for Englesby Brook Basin, an urbanized basin in Burlington and South Burlington that drains to Lake Champlain. Although the basin is more developed than the average of the nine cooperating municipalities, streamflow and P loading data collected by the U.S. Geological Survey were available to evaluate model performance. Simulations based on a year of average climatic conditions projected potential small reductions in total P of 0.08 to 0.10 percent as a result of CB cleaning and SC practices. Simulated weekly SC practices, however, reduced street-solid loads by as much as 7 percent. When the proportion of total P seen in fall SC materials collected in Vermont was applied to these simulated street-solid loads, estimated reductions of total P were about 29 percent. The combination of analytical results, estimated load-reduction credits, and simulated reductions indicate that targeted increases of SC activities to reduce leaf loading in the fall have the potential to reduce loading to receiving waters and could help regulated communities meet their water-quality goals.

Vermont↗

USGS2016

Effects of streamflows on stream-channel morphology in the eastern Niobrara National Scenic River, Nebraska, 1988–2010

The Niobrara River is an important and valuable economic and ecological resource in northern Nebraska that supports ecotourism, recreational boating, wildlife, fisheries, agriculture, and hydroelectric power. Because of its uniquely rich resources, a 122-kilometer reach of the Niobrara River was designated as a National Scenic River in 1991, which has been jointly managed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and National Park Service. To assess how the remarkable qualities of the National Scenic River may change if consumptive uses of water are increased above current levels, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Park Service, initiated an investigation of how stream-channel morphology might be affected by potential decreases in summer streamflows. The study included a 65-kilometer segment in the wide, braided eastern stretch of the Niobrara National Scenic River that provides important nesting habitat for migratory bird species of concern to the Nation. The study focused on three river segments, separated at the confluences with two tributaries, Plum Creek and Long Pine Creek. With an overall temporal scope of 1988–2010 that includes a short interval preceding and a long interval following the Niobrara National Scenic River Designation Act of 1991, the study analyzed five separate time periods: 1988–93, 1994–99, 2000–3, 2004–6, and 2007–10, each of which ended with a year in which aerial photography coverage was available. Streamflow duration was analyzed for one streamgage upstream from the study area and two streamgages on tributary streams within the study area. Summer streamflows (July, August, and September) were targeted for analysis because median flows of the Niobrara River are lowest during those 3 months. In addition, peak flows during the study period were used to estimate bankfull discharge, which is one determinant of channel dimensions. Changes in channel morphology were examined using aerial photographs from 1993, 1999, 2003, 2006, and 2010 to measure channel width, area of islands, and incipient flood-plain surfaces, and to compute the braided index. Channel metrics were computed for each photography year and summarized by river segment. Additionally, at fixed-location cross sections, photography analysis identified localized geomorphic change to infer processes. Accuracy of geomorphic feature classification was estimated and the root-mean-square difference (RMSD) between aerial photographs was calculated to determine associated errors in channel metric calculations. The horizontal accuracy of boundaries delineated in the classification was estimated as 5 meters (m) for boundaries based on 1993 aerial photography and 4 m for all other aerial photography. The RMSD between aerial photography years ranged from 3.04 m to 4.16 m. The largest measurable changes in channel metrics were measured between 1993 and 1999 and between 1999 and 2003. Between 1993 and 1999, average total channel width increased by 9 m (3 percent) and 14 m (5 percent) in segments 2 and 3, respectively; average active channel width increased by 13 m (5 percent) in segment 3 and decreased by 6 m (4 percent) in segment 1; and incipient flood-plain-surface area increased by 40, 44, and 33 percent in segments 1, 2, and 3, respectively. Changes in channel metrics between 1999 and 2003 included a decrease in average total channel width of 14 m (5 percent) in segment 2; a decrease in active channel widths of 8 m (3 percent) and 6 m (2 percent) in segments 2 and 3, respectively; and an increase of 5 m (3 percent) in segment 1. Incipient flood-plain areas decreased by 22 and 33 percent in segments 1 and 2, respectively, and increased by 42 percent in segment 3. Large changes were measured between 1993 and 1999, and between 1999 and 2003, at many of the fixed-location cross sections. Large changes (that is, greater than 25 percent) in total channel width were measured in all three segments between 1993 and 1999 and again between 1999 and 2003; large increases were dominant between 1993 and 1999 and large decreases were dominant between 1999 and 2003. Segment 1 was the most susceptible to localized changes as there was only one period (between 2003 and 2006) in which the active channel width largely changed in fewer than 10 percent of the cross sections. Changes in channel metrics generally corresponded to changes in streamflow conditions, but other than changes in incipient flood-plain area, these changes were small and were not measured in all three segments simultaneously. Increases in total channel width (except in segment 1) and incipient flood-plain area between 1993 and 1999 corresponded to increases in streamflow. Channel narrowing (except in segment 1) between 1999 and 2003 corresponded to lower summer streamflows and extended durations of very low summer streamflow. Although the pattern of low summer streamflow and extended durations of very low summer streamflow continued during the 2004–6 period and at the beginning of the 2007–10 period, no further narrowing was measured. Consistent tributary summer inflows help to explain the resistance of segments 2 and 3 to further narrowing. Because segment 1 is already much narrower than segments 2 and 3, its average current velocity is likely to be swifter and, therefore, competent to offset further effects of the processes that led to its narrowness.

Nebraska↗

USGS2026

Analyses of meteorological and hydrological records support Tribal members’ accounts of changing climate on the Fort Apache Reservation, east–central Arizona

The Fort Apache Reservation in east–central Arizona, home to the White Mountain Apache Tribe of the Fort Apache Reservation, Arizona, contains several climate zones because of the large variation in surface elevation within the reservation. This study was carried out in cooperation with the White Mountain Apache Tribe of the Fort Apache Reservation, Arizona, to raise awareness of how the changing climate affects the Fort Apache Reservation. This report documents the evaluation of existing multidecadal meteorological and hydrological datasets for the Fort Apache Reservation, used to evaluate the effects of a changing climate on the reservation. In this evaluation, near-surface air temperature, snow depth, snow water equivalent, precipitation, and streamflow datasets were analyzed for monotonic trends indicative of changing climatic conditions during specified periods of time. The results of these trend analyses were then compared with the Tribal community's memories of the changing climate. Trend analysis of near-surface air temperatures from a U.S. Historical Climatological Network station on the Fort Apache Reservation at Whiteriver, Arizona, indicated that mean annual air temperatures have increased by an average of 2.48 degrees Fahrenheit from 1980 to 2023. Records from the same station also indicated that average monthly maximum temperatures recorded for March increased by 5.39 degrees Fahrenheit for the same time period. Annual precipitation at the five precipitation stations used in this study decreased greatly from the 1980s to 2023. The largest total decrease was 10.07 inches, or 34.7 percent. However, only one of the two precipitation stations with longer term data available prior to 1980 had a significant negative trend when data from the entire period of record, from 1901 to 2023, were analyzed. Trend analyses show a decrease in the annual maximum snow water equivalent and an earlier disappearance of the snowpack at two Natural Resources Conservation Service snow telemetry stations in the mountainous region just east of the Fort Apache Reservation from 1981 to 2023. Based on the trend analyses, the average annual maximum snow water equivalent has decreased by more than 40 percent at both stations, and the average date when the snowpack was fully melted at the stations in the spring has moved earlier in time from late April to early April or late March. However, a statistically significant trend was not determined for the early April snow water equivalent measured at a nearby Natural Resources Conservation Service snow course across its period of record, indicating that the history of mountain snowpack in this area is not fully understood. Analysis of snowfall data from a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Cooperative Observer Program network station on the Fort Apache Reservation at McNary 2N, AZ (station 025412) indicated that, on average, the measured total annual snowfall at the station decreased 42.4 percent from 1935 to 2023. Streamflow data from six U.S. Geological Survey streamgages on the Fort Apache Reservation were analyzed for trends. For most streamflow gages, statistically significant trends were not determined for tested parameters when the entire streamflow period of record was used for stations with records going back to at least the 1960s. However, when the data from 1980 to 2023 was tested, most of the streamflow parameters had statistically significant negative trends. All six streamgages showed a decrease in average annual runoff of at least 50 percent from 1980 to 2023; one streamgage showed an 81.8 percent decrease. A similar statistical finding was observed in the analysis of the annual spring snowmelt peak from one of the six streamgages used in the study and located in an area receiving measurable amounts of snowmelt runoff. When data from the entire period of record (1958–2023) was used, no trend in streamflow was determined; however, a significant negative trend was determined from 1980 to 2023, indicating a decrease in average annual springtime runoff of 62.6 percent. Statistical analysis on the timing of the annual spring snowmelt peak at the same streamgage indicated the snowmelt peak is happening on average about 12 days earlier now (2023) than it did in the past. The trend results for the timing of the annual spring snowmelt peak were the same and statistically significant for both periods tested (1958–2023 and 1980–2023). Two of the streamflow records from the Fort Apache Reservation were compared to the Palmer Hydrological Drought Index computed for Arizona Climate Division 4 (East Central) by the National Centers for Environmental Information. The comparison showed that the streamflow records generally tracked the Palmer Hydrological Drought Index. In interviews, Tribal community members living on the Fort Apache Reservation described the changes in climate that they observed during their lifetimes. Common themes reported were that air temperatures have become warmer, and the weather is less predictable with changes in seasonal patterns. Drier conditions, lower snowfall, shorter winters, and lower river levels were also reported. These community member observations align with the results of this study.

Arizona↗

USGS2009

Sand resources, regional geology, and coastal processes of the Chandeleur Islands Coastal System: An evaluation of the Breton National Wildlife Refuge

Breton National Wildlife Refuge, the Chandeleur Islands chain in Louisiana, provides habitat and nesting areas for wildlife and is an initial barrier protecting New Orleans from storms. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in partnership with the University of New Orleans Pontchartrain Institute for Environmental Sciences undertook an intensive study that included (1) an analysis of island change based on historical maps and remotely sensed shoreline and topographic data; (2) a series of lidar surveys at 3- to 4-month intervals after Hurricane Katrina to determine barrier island recovery potential; (3) a discussion of sea level rise and effects on the islands; (4) an analysis of sea floor evolution and sediment dynamics in the refuge over the past 150 years; (5) an assessment of the local sediment transport and sediment resource availability based on the bathymetric and subbottom data; (6) a carefully selected core collection effort to groundtruth the geophysical data and more fully characterize the sediments composing the islands and surrounds; (7) an additional survey of the St. Bernard Shoals to assess their potential as a sand resource; and (8) a modeling study to numerically simulate the potential response of the islands to the low-intensity, intermediate, and extreme events likely to affect the refuge over the next 50 years. Results indicate that the islands have become fragmented and greatly diminished in subaerial extent over time: the southern islands retreating landward as they reorganize into subaerial features, the northern islands remaining in place. Breton Island, because maintenance of the Mississippi River-Gulf Outlet (MRGO) outer bar channel requires dredging, is deprived of sand sufficient to sustain itself. Regional sediment transport trends indicate that large storms are extremely effective in transporting sand and controlling the shoreline development and barrier island geometry. Sand is transported north and south from a divergent zone near Monkey Bayou at the southern end of the Chandeleur Islands. Numerical simulation of waves and sediment transport supports the geophysical results and indicates that vast areas of the lower shoreface are affected and are undergoing erosion during storm events, that there is little or no fair weather mechanism to rework material into the littoral system, and that as a result, there is a net loss of sediment from the system. Lidar surveys revealed that the island chain immediately after Hurricane Katrina lost about 84 percent of its area and about 92 percent of its prestorm volume. Marsh platforms that supported the islands’ sand prior to the storm were reduced in width by more than one-half. Repeated lidar surveys document that in places the shoreline has retreated about 100 m under the relatively low-energy waves since Hurricanes Katrina and Rita; however, this retreat is nonuniform. Recent high-resolution geophysical surveys of the sea floor and subsurface within 5–6 km of the Chandeleur Islands during 2006 and 2007 show that, in addition to the sand that is rebuilding portions of the island chain, a large volume of sand is contained in Hewes Point, in an extensive subtidal spit platform that has formed at the northern end of the Chandeleur Islands. Hewes Point appears to be the depositional terminus of the alongshore transport system. In the southern Chandeleurs, sand is being deposited in a broad tabular deposit near Breton Island called the southern offshore sand sheet. These two depocenters account for approximately 70 percent of the estimated sediment volume located in potential borrow sites. An additional large potential source of sand for restoration lies in the St. Bernard Shoals, which are estimated to contain approximately 200 × 10 6 m 3 of sand. Successful restoration planning for the Breton National Wildlife Refuge should mimic the natural processes of early stages of barrier island evolution including lateral transport to the flanks of the island chain from a centralized sand source that will ultimately enhance the ability of the islands to naturally build backbarrier marsh, dunes, and a continuous sandy shoreline. Barrier island sediment nourishment should be executed with the understanding that gulf shoreline erosion is inevitable but that island area can be maintained and enhanced during retreat (thus significantly prolonging the life of the island chain) with strategic sand placement.

Louisiana↗

USGS2022

Long-term groundwater availability in the Waihe‘e, ‘Īao, and Waikapū aquifer systems, Maui, Hawai‘i

Groundwater levels have declined since the 1940s in the Wailuku area of central Maui, Hawai‘i, on the eastern flank of West Maui volcano, mainly in response to increased groundwater withdrawals. Available data since the 1980s also indicate a thinning of the freshwater lens and an increase in chloride concentrations of pumped water from production wells. These trends, combined with projected increases in demand for groundwater in central Maui, have led to concerns over groundwater availability and have highlighted a need to improve general understanding of the hydrologic effects of proposed groundwater withdrawals in the Waihe‘e, ‘Īao, and Waikapū areas of central Maui. A numerical groundwater model was constructed to simulate the flow and salinity of groundwater in central Maui. The model simulates the effects of changes in groundwater withdrawals and recharge on water levels, freshwater-lens thicknesses, and chloride concentrations of pumped water from production wells. The model incorporates updated water-budget estimates of groundwater recharge from infiltration and direct recharge, seepage in stream channels, and inflow from inland areas. Mean annual groundwater recharge from infiltration and direct recharge was estimated using a daily water-budget model and the most current data, including the distributions of monthly rainfall and potential evapotranspiration, for the study area for nine historical periods from 1926 through 2012: 1926–69, 1970–79, 1980–84, 1985–89, 1990–94, 1995–99, 2000–04, 2005–09, and 2010–12. The water-budget model also estimated groundwater recharge based on one hypothetical scenario that used 1980–2010 rainfall and 2017 land cover. For the nine historical periods, estimated recharge from infiltration and direct recharge within the area of the groundwater model ranged from 30.4 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) during 2010–12 to 98.7 Mgal/d during 1926–69. Variability in recharge during these periods mainly reflects changes in rainfall and irrigation over time. Between 2010 and 2014, streamflow restoration in previously diverted streams resulted in an estimated increase in recharge from seepage in stream channels of about 12.5 Mgal/d. Average groundwater inflow of about 39.6 Mgal/d from inland, dike-intruded areas to the main area of interest was estimated from an existing island-wide numerical groundwater-flow model, which is at a larger scale and incorporates a greater number of simplifying assumptions. The numerical groundwater model developed for this study was calibrated to 1926–2012 transient water levels, vertical salinity profiles, and chloride concentrations of water pumped by production wells in the study area. The model was then used to evaluate one future recharge and six selected withdrawal scenarios, developed in consultation with the Maui Department of Water Supply, in terms of long-term changes in water level and 50-percent ocean-water salinity surface. The groundwater model was also used to simulate the future salinity of water withdrawn by existing and proposed production wells. The simulations were run to steady-state conditions, providing an estimate of the long-term effects of changes in withdrawal and recharge on the groundwater resource. Results of the simulated future withdrawal scenarios indicate that, relative to 2017–18 rates, the scenarios’ long-term effect of increased withdrawals ultimately leads to lower water levels and a higher 50-percent ocean-water salinity surface indicating a thinning of the freshwater lens. Results also indicate that the increased withdrawals produce some groundwater with chloride concentration below 250 milligrams per liter and some groundwater with higher chloride concentration. The amount of drawdown near production wells and the quality of water withdrawn from production wells is dependent on the rate and spatial distribution of the withdrawals. The model was also used to evaluate how groundwater availability may be affected for a drier recharge scenario based on a published study of future climate. Model results of the future recharge scenario indicate that the rate of groundwater recharge is a controlling factor for (1) water levels, (2) the 50-percent ocean-water salinity surface, and (3) the quality of water withdrawn from production wells in the Wailuku area. Coupled with reduced groundwater recharge (with all other factors remaining equal), the modeled future withdrawals in the scenario would tend to cause lower water levels, a higher 50-percent ocean-water salinity surface, and increased salinity of water withdrawn from production wells. The three-dimensional numerical groundwater model developed for this study utilizes the latest available hydrologic and geologic information and is a useful tool for understanding the long-term hydrologic effects of additional groundwater withdrawals in central Maui. The model has several limitations, including its non-uniqueness and inability to account for local-scale heterogeneities. Short-term effects of changes in recharge and withdrawals—and optimization of pumping rates to meet increased demand for water with acceptable salinity—are possible conditions for future simulation analyses.

Hawaii↗

USGS2017

Geologic map of the northeast flank of Mauna Loa volcano, Island of Hawai'i, Hawaii

Summary Mauna Loa, the largest volcano on Earth, has erupted 33 times since written descriptions became available in 1832. Some eruptions were preceded by only brief seismic unrest, while others followed several months to a year of increased seismicity. The majority of the eruptions of Mauna Loa began in the summit area (>12,000-ft elevation; Lockwood and Lipman, 1987); yet the Northeast Rift Zone (NERZ) was the source of eight flank eruptions since 1843 (table 1). This zone extends from the 13,680-ft-high summit towards Hilo (population ~60,000), the second largest city in the State of Hawaii. Although most of the source vents are farther than 30 km away, the 1880 flow from one of the vents extends into Hilo, nearly reaching Hilo Bay. The city is built entirely on flows erupted from the NERZ, most older than that erupted in 1843. Once underway, Mauna Loa's eruptions can produce lava flows that reach the sea in less than 24 hours, severing roads and utilities in their path. For example, lava flows erupted from the Southwest Rift Zone (SWRZ) in 1950 advanced at an average rate of 9.3 km per hour, and all three lobes reached the ocean within approximately 24 hours (Finch and Macdonald, 1953). The flows near the eruptive vents must have traveled even faster. In terms of eruption frequency, pre-eruption warning, and rapid flow emplacement, Mauna Loa poses an enormous volcanic-hazard threat to the Island of Hawai‘i. By documenting past activity and by alerting the public and local government officials of our findings, we can anticipate the volcanic hazards and substantially mitigate the risks associated with an eruption of this massive edifice. From the geologic record, we can deduce several generalized facts about the geologic history of the NERZ. The middle to the uppermost section of the rift zone were more active in the past 4,000 years than the lower part, perhaps due to buttressing of the lower east rift zone by Mauna Kea and Kīlauea volcanoes. The historical flows that erupted on the north flank of the rift zone, which is more vulnerable to inundation, advanced toward Hilo. Lockwood (1990) noted that the vents of historical activity are migrating to the south. The volcano appears to have a self-regulating mechanism that evenly distributes long-term activity across its flanks. The geologic record also supports this notion; the time prior to the historical period (Age Group 1, orange units, pre-A.D. 1843–1,000 yr B.P.; see map sheet 2) is dominated by activity on the south side of the NERZ. The NERZ trends N. 65° E. and is about 40 km long and 2–4 km wide, narrowing at the summit caldera. It becomes diffuse (6–7 km wide) at its down-rift terminus, at the approximately 3,400-ft elevation. Its constructional crest is marked by low spatter ramparts and by spatter cones as high as 60 m. Subparallel eruptive fissures and ground cracks cut vent deposits and flows in and near the rift crest. Lava typically flows to the north, east, or south, depending on vent location relative to the rift crest. Encompassing 1,140 km 2 of the northeast flank of Mauna Loa from the 10,880-ft elevation to sea level, the map covers the area from Hilo to Volcano on the east and includes the rift zone from Puu Ulaula quadrangle in the southwest to Hilo in the northeast. The distribution of 105 eruptive units (flows)—separated into 15 age groups ranging from more than 30,000 years B.P. to A.D. 1984—are shown, as well as the relations of volcanic and surficial sedimentary deposits. This map incorporates previously reported work published in generalized small-scale maps (Lockwood and Lipman, 1987; Buchanan-Banks, 1993; Lockwood, 1995; and Wolfe and Morris, 1996).

Hawaii↗

USGS2013

Groundwater contributions of flow, nitrate, and dissolved organic carbon to the lower San Joaquin River, California, 2006-08

The influence of groundwater on surface-water quality in the San Joaquin River, California, was examined for a 59-mile reach from the confluence with Salt Slough to Vernalis. The primary objective of this study was to quantify the rate of groundwater discharged to the lower San Joaquin River and the contribution of nitrate and dissolved organic carbon concentrations to the river. Multiple lines of evidence from four independent approaches were used to characterize groundwater contributions of nitrogen and dissolved organic carbon. Monitoring wells (in-stream and bank wells), streambed synoptic surveys (stream water and shallow groundwater), longitudinal profile surveys by boat (continuous water-quality parameters in the stream), and modeling (MODFLOW and VS2DH) provided a combination of temporal, spatial, quantitative, and qualitative evidence of groundwater contributions to the river and the associated quality. Monitoring wells in nested clusters in the streambed (in-stream wells) and on both banks (bank wells) along the river were monitored monthly from September 2006 to January 2009. Nitrate concentrations in the bank wells ranged from less than detection—that is, less than 0.01 milligrams per liter (mg/L) as nitrogen (N)—to approximately 13 mg/L as N. Nitrate was not detected at 17 of 26 monitoring wells during the study period. Dissolved organic carbon concentrations among monitoring wells were highly variable, but they generally ranged from 1 to 4 mg/L. In a previous study, 14 bank wells were sampled once in 1988 following their original installation. With few exceptions, specific conductivity and nitrate concentrations measured in this study were virtually identical to those measured 20 years ago. Streambed synoptic measurements were made by using a temporarily installed drive-point piezometer at 113 distinct transects across the stream during 4 sampling events. Nitrate concentrations exceeded the detection limit of 0.01 mg/L as N in 5 percent of groundwater samples collected from the in-stream wells as part of the synoptic surveys. Only 7 of the 113 cross-sectional transects had nitrate concentrations greater than 1 mg/L as N. In contrast, surface waters in the San Joaquin River tended to have nitrate concentrations in the 1–3 mg/L as N range. A zone of lower oxygen (less than 2 mg/L) in the streambed could limit nitrate contributions from regional groundwater flow because nitrate can be converted to nitrogen gas within this zone. Appreciable concentrations of ammonium (average concentration was 1.92 mg/L as N, and 95th percentile was 10.34 mg/L as N) in the shallow groundwater, believed to originate from anoxic mineralization of streambed sediments, could contribute nitrogen to the overlying stream as nitrate following in-stream nitrification, however. Dissolved organic carbon concentrations were highly variable in the shallow groundwater below the river (1 to 6 ft below streambed) and generally ranged between 1 and 5 mg/L, but had maximum concentrations in the 15–25 mg/L range. The longitudinal profile surveys were not particularly useful in identifying groundwater discharge areas. However, the longitudinal approach described in this report was useful as a baseline survey of measured water-quality parameters and for identifying tributary inflows that affect surface-water concentrations of nitrate. Results of the calibrated MODFLOW model indicated that the simulated groundwater discharge rate was approximately 1.0 cubic foot per second per mile (cfs/mi), and the predominant horizontal groundwater flow direction between the deep bank wells was westward beneath the river. The modeled (VS2DH) flux values (river gain versus river loss) were calculated for the irrigation and non-irrigation season, and these fluxes were an order of magnitude less than those from MODFLOW. During the irrigation season, the average river gain was 0.11 cfs/mi, and the average river loss was −0.05 cfs/mi. During the non-irrigation season, the average river gain was 0.10 cfs/mi, and the average river loss was -0.08 cfs/mi. Information on groundwater interactions and water quality collected for this study was used to estimate loads of nitrate and dissolved organic carbon from the groundwater to the San Joaquin River. Estimated loads of dissolved inorganic nitrogen and dissolved organic carbon were calculated by using concentrations measured during four streambed synoptic surveys and the estimated groundwater discharge rate to the San Joaquin River from MODFLOW of 1 cfs/mi. The estimated groundwater loads to the San Joaquin River for dissolved inorganic nitrogen and dissolved organic carbon were 300 and 350 kilograms per day, respectively. These loads represent 9 and 7 percent, respectively, of the estimated instantaneous surface-water loads for dissolved inorganic nitrogen and dissolved organic carbon at the most downstream site, Vernalis, measured during the four streambed synoptic surveys.

California↗

USGS2014

Simulation of the Lower Walker River Basin hydrologic system, west-central Nevada, using PRMS and MODFLOW models

Walker Lake is a terminal lake in west-central Nevada with almost all outflow occurring through evaporation. Diversions from Walker River since the early 1900s have contributed to a substantial reduction in flow entering Walker Lake. As a result, the lake is receding, and salt concentrations have increased to a level in which Oncorhynchus clarkii henshawi (Lahontan Cutthroat trout) are no longer present, and the lake ecosystem is threatened. Consequently, there is a concerted effort to restore the Walker Lake ecosystem and fishery to a level that is more sustainable. However, Walker Lake is interlinked with the lower Walker River and adjacent groundwater system which makes it difficult to understand the full effect of upstream water-management actions on the overall hydrologic system including the lake level, volume, and dissolved-solids concentrations of Walker Lake. To understand the effects of water-management actions on the lower Walker River Basin hydrologic system, a watershed model and groundwater flow model have been developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation and the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation. The watershed model was developed using the precipitation runoff modeling system (PRMS) and the groundwater flow model was constructed using the MODular groundwater FLOW model (MODFLOW) and both were calibrated for the lower Walker River Basin. These models can be incorporated in an integrated Groundwater and Surface-water FLOW (GSFLOW) model of the lower Walker River Basin. Additionally, the MODFLOW model developed for this study is useful for efficiently simulating long-term and large-scale effects of water-management actions on groundwater hydrology, streamflow, and Walker Lake level, volume, and dissolved-solids concentrations. The lower Walker River Basin PRMS model (LWR_PRMS) was constructed using a subbasin approach to aid in development and calibration, and simulates a 30-year period from 1978 to 2007 using daily time steps. The LWR_PRMS was used to estimate the distribution of groundwater recharge specified in the MODFLOW model. The highest rates of groundwater recharge occur in the Wassuk Range beneath perennial and ephemeral stream channels, whereas lower rates of recharge occur beneath alluvial fans along mountain fronts. The total groundwater recharge estimated using PRMS was about 25,000 acre-feet per year. The lower Walker River Basin MODFLOW (LWR_MF) model simulates an 89-year period using monthly time steps. The LWR_MF was constructed with an initial steady-state simulation to represent dynamic equilibrium conditions from 1908 to 1918 and then a transient simulation representing the period 1919–2007. The model was calibrated using a combination of manual and automated methods of adjusting model parameters to minimize errors between model simulated results and weighted observations of groundwater levels, streamflows, and lake level. Hydrologic conditions simulated with the LWR_MF include the movement and change in storage of groundwater, and the water budgets for Walker River, Walker Lake, and the groundwater system. The LWR_MF computed dissolved-solids concentrations for Walker Lake using simulated lake volume and an assumed constant internal salt mass of 37.2 million tons. Effects of potential changes in water management on future conditions (scenarios) of the lower Walker River Basin hydrologic system and Walker Lake from 2011 to 2070 were evaluated. Several water-management scenarios were considered, including a baseline scenario that represents no changes in system management, improved irrigation efficiencies for the Walker River Indian Irrigation Project (WRIIP), a range of increased streamflows entering the lower Walker River Basin, and, the fallowing of fields on the WRIIP. For the baseline scenario, it was assumed that streamflow conditions from 1981 to 2010 will be repeated in the future. Results indicate that Walker Lake level and volume continue to decline but at a slower rate as the surface area of the lake becomes smaller and lake evaporation decreases. Dissolved-solids concentrations in Walker Lake continue to increase and increase much more rapidly during periods when minimal flows reach the lake due to a diminished lake volume. Alternatively, in years with high runoff, lake level increases are greater and dissolved-solids decreases are greater, compared with equivalent runoffs experienced during 1981–2010. The simulated effects of improving WRIIP efficiencies on Walker River streamflows, Walker Lake inflow, level, and dissolved-solids concentrations, and crop consumptive use, are compared with the baseline reference scenario for a range of irrigation efficiency improvements from 0 to 25 percent over 60 years. Results indicate that water is conserved through a reduction in irrigation-induced groundwater recharge and subsequent groundwater discharge through evapotranspiration. The conserved water mostly goes to increased streamflow to Walker Lake, followed by increased crop consumptive use, then increased evaporation from Weber Reservoir. The simulated effects of increased streamflows at Walker River at Wabuska streamgage (10301500) on Walker Lake inflow, level, and dissolved-solids concentrations, and crop consumptive use, are compared with the baseline scenario after 60 years under two different management methods for Weber Reservoir. Results indicate Walker Lake level and dissolved-solids concentrations stabilized with increased irrigation-season streamflow of about 40,000 acre-feet per year at the Walker River at Wabuska streamgage. Walker Lake level increased, and dissolved-solids concentration decreased, with increased flows of 50,000 acre-feet per year or more. After 60 years with additional irrigation-season streamflows of 50,000 acre-feet per year, Walker Lake level increased by about 48 feet, and lake dissolved-solids concentrations decreased by about 3,000 milligrams per liter (mg/L). With 75,000 acre-feet per year of additional streamflow, Walker Lake level increased by 70 feet, and dissolved-solids concentration decreased by 7,600 milligrams per liter. The effects of fallowing of Walker River Indian Irrigation Project fields from 2007 to 2010 on Walker Lake inflow, level, and dissolved solids were evaluated. Fallowing resulted in a near doubling of Walker River inflow to Walker Lake during this period, an increase in Walker Lake level of about 1.4 feet, and a decrease in dissolved-solids concentration of about 540 mg/L.

Nevada↗

USGS2014

Water-quality variability and constituent transport and processes in streams of Johnson County, Kansas, using continuous monitoring and regression models, 2003-11

The population of Johnson County, Kansas increased by about 24 percent between 2000 and 2012, making it one of the most rapidly developing areas of Kansas. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Johnson County Stormwater Management Program, began a comprehensive study of Johnson County streams in 2002 to evaluate and monitor changes in stream quality. The purpose of this report is to describe water-quality variability and constituent transport for streams representing the five largest watersheds in Johnson County, Kansas during 2003 through 2011. The watersheds ranged in urban development from 98.3 percent urban (Indian Creek) to 16.7 percent urban (Kill Creek). Water-quality conditions are quantified among the watersheds of similar size (50.1 square miles to 65.7 square miles) using continuous, in-stream measurements, and using regression models developed from continuous and discrete data. These data are used to quantify variability in concentrations and loads during changing streamflow and seasonal conditions, describe differences among sites, and assess water quality relative to water-quality standards and stream management goals. Water quality varied relative to streamflow conditions, urbanization in the upstream watershed, and contributions from wastewater treatment facilities and storm runoff. Generally, as percent impervious surface (a measure of urbanization) increased, streamflow yield increased. Water temperature of Indian Creek, the most urban site which is also downstream from wastewater facility discharges, was higher than the other sites about 50 percent of the time, particularly during winter months. Dissolved oxygen concentrations were less than the Kansas Department of Health and Environment minimum criterion of 5 milligrams per liter about 15 percent of the time at the Indian Creek site. Dissolved oxygen concentrations were less than the criterion about 10 percent of the time at the rural Blue River and Kill Creek sites, and less than 5 percent of the time at the other sites. Low dissolved oxygen at all sites generally coincided with lowest streamflow and warmer water temperatures. Hourly dissolved oxygen concentrations less than 5 milligrams per liter were measured at all sites every year, indicating that even under normal climate conditions in non-urban watersheds such as Kill Creek, dissolved oxygen concentrations may not meet State aquatic-life criterion. Specific conductance was nearly always highest in Indian and Mill Creeks, which were the most urban streams with the largest upstream discharges from wastewater treatment facilities. The largest chloride concentrations and variability were recorded at urban sites and during winter. Each winter during the study period, chloride concentrations in the most urban site, Indian Creek, exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency-recommended criterion of 230 milligrams per liter for at least 10 consecutive days. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency-recommended ecoregion criterion for turbidity was exceeded 30 (Indian Creek) to 50 (Blue River) percent of the time. The highest average annual streamflow-weighted suspendedsediment concentration during the study period was in Mill Creek, which has undergone rapid development that likely contributed to higher sediment concentrations. One of the largest suspended-sediment load events in Indian Creek was recorded in early May 2007 when about 25 percent of the total annual sediment load was transported during a period of about 2.25 days. A simultaneous load event was recorded in Kill Creek, when about 75 percent of the total annual sediment load was transported. Sediment yields generally increased as percent impervious surface increased. Computed hourly total nitrogen and total phosphorus concentrations and yields and streamflow-weighted concentrations generally were largest in Indian and Mill Creeks. Annual percent contribution of total nitrogen in the Blue River from wastewater treatment facility discharges ranged from 19 percent in 2010 to 60 percent in 2006. Annual percent contribution of total nitrogen in Indian Creek from wastewater treatment facility discharges ranged from 35 percent in 2010 to 93 percent in 2006. The largest percent nutrient contributions from wastewater discharges coincided with the smallest annual precipitation and streamflow volume, resulting in less contribution originating from runoff. Fecal indicator bacteria Escherichia coli density at the urban Indian Creek site was usually the largest of the five monitoring sites, with an annual median density that consistently exceeded the State primary contact criterion value but was less than the secondary contact criterion. Less than 1 percent of the total annual bacteria load in the Blue River and Indian Creek originated from wastewater discharges, except during 2006 when about 6 percent of the Indian Creek load originated from wastewater. Continuous water-quality monitoring provides a foundation for comprehensive evaluation and understanding of variability and loading characteristics in streams in Johnson County. Because several directly measured parameters are strongly correlated with particular constituents of interest, regression models provide a valuable tool for evaluating variability and loading on the basis of computed continuous data. Continuous data are particularly useful for characterizing nonpoint-source contributions from stormwater runoff. Transmission of continuous data in real-time makes it possible to rapidly detect and respond to potential environmental concerns. As monitoring technologies continue to improve, so does the ability to monitor additional constituents of interest, with smaller measurement error, and at lower operational cost. Continuous water-quality data including model information and computed concentrations and loads during the study period are available at http://nrtwq.usgs.gov/ks/ .

Kansas↗