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At least 739 records · Page 41Linked to original sources
USGS2018

Responses of unimpaired flows, storage, and managed flows to scenarios of climate change in the San Francisco Bay-Delta watershed

Projections of meteorology downscaled from global climate model runs were used to drive a model of unimpaired hydrology of the Sacramento/San Joaquin watershed, which in turn drove models of operational responses and managed flows. Twenty daily climate change scenarios for water years 1980–2099 were evaluated with the goal of producing inflow boundary conditions for a watershed sediment model and for a hydrodynamical model of the San Francisco Bay-Delta estuary. The resulting time series of meteorology, snowpack, unimpaired flow, reservoir storage, and managed flow were analyzed for century-scale trends. In the Sacramento basin, which dominates Bay-Delta inflows, all 20 scenarios portrayed warming trends (with a mean of 4.1 °C) and most had precipitation increases (with a mean increase of 9%). Sacramento basin snowpack water equivalent declined sharply (by 89%), which was associated with a major shift toward earlier unimpaired runoff timing (33% more flow arriving prior to 1 April). Sacramento basin reservoirs showed large declines in end-of-September storage. Water-year averaged outflows increased for most scenarios for both unimpaired and impaired flows, and frequency of extremely high daily unimpaired and impaired flows increased (increases of 175% and 170%, respectively). Managed Delta inflows were projected to experience large increases in the wet season and declines in the dry season. Changes in management strategy and infrastructure can mitigate some of these changes, though to what degree is uncertain.

California↗
USGS2016

Midcontinent Prairie-Pothole wetlands and climate change: An Introduction to the Supplemental Issue

The multitude of wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America forms one of Earth’s largest wetland complexes. The midcontinent location exposes this ecologically and economically important wetland system to a highly variable climate, markedly influencing ponded-water levels, hydroperiods, chemical characteristics, and biota of individual basins. Given their dominance on the landscape and recognized value, great interest in how projected future changes in climate will affect prairie-pothole wetlands has developed and spawned much scientific research. On June 2, 2015, a special symposium, “Midcontinent Prairie-Pothole Wetlands: Influence of a Changed Climate,” was held at the annual meeting of the Society of Wetland Scientists in Providence, Rhode Island, USA. The symposium’s twelve presenters covered a wide range of relevant topics delivered to a standing-room-only audience. Following the symposium, the presenters recognized the need to publish their presented papers as a combined product to facilitate widespread distribution. The need for additional papers to more fully cover the topic of prairie-pothole wetlands and climate change was also identified. This supplemental issue of Wetlands is the realization of that vision.

Prairie Pothole Region↗
USGS2020

Baseline conditions and projected future hydro-climatic change in National Parks in the conterminous United States

The National Park Service (NPS) manages hundreds of parks in the United States, and many contain important aquatic ecosystems and/or threatened and endangered aquatic species vulnerable to hydro-climatic change. Effective management of park resources under future hydro-climatic uncertainty requires information on both baseline conditions and the range of projected future conditions. A monthly water balance model was used to assess baseline (1981-1999) conditions and a range of projected future hydro-climatic conditions in 374 NPS parks. General circulation model outputs representing 214 future climate simulations were used to drive the model. Projected future changes in temperature (T), precipitation (P), and runoff (R) are expressed as departures from historical baselines. Climate simulations indicate increasing T in 2030 for all parks with 50th percentile simulations projecting increases of 1.67 oC or more in 50% of parks. Departures in 2030 P indicate a mix of mostly increases and some decreases, with 50th percentile simulations projecting increases in P in more than 70% of parks. Departures in R for 2030 are mostly decreases , with the 50th percentile simulations projecting decreases in R in more than 50% of parks in all seasons except winter. Hence in many parks, R is projected to decrease even when P is projected to increase because of increasing T in all NPS parks. Projected changes in future hydro-climatic conditions can also be assessed for individual parks, and Rocky Mountain National Park and Congaree National Park are used as examples.

Water↗
USGS2021

Impacts of climate change on groundwater availability and spring flows: Observations from the highly productive Medicine Lake Highlands/Fall River Springs Aquifer System

Medicine Lake Highlands/Fall River Springs Aquifer System, located in northeastern California, is home to some of the largest first-order springs in the United States. This work assesses the likely effects of projected climate change on spring flow. Four anticipated climate futures (GFDL A2, GFDL B1, CCSM4 rcp 8.5, CNRM rcp 8.5) for California, which predict a range of conditions (generally warming and transitioning from snow to rain with variable amounts of total precipitation), are postulated to affect groundwater recharge primarily by changing evapotranspiration. The linkages between climate variables and spring flow are evaluated using a water balance model that represents the physics of evapotranspiration and recharge, the Basin Characterization Model. Three of the four climate scenarios (GFDL A2, GFDL B1, CCSM4 rcp 8.5) project that by the year 2100, groundwater recharge (and consequently decreased spring flow) will decrease by 27%, 21%, and 9%, respectively. The fourth scenario (CNRM rcp 8.5) showed an increase in recharge of 32% due to a significant increase in precipitation (27%). Evapotranspiration increases due to a shift in the type of precipitation and a longer growing season. While the likelihood of each scenario is outside the scope of this work, unless total precipitation increases dramatically in the future, increased temperatures and decreasing precipitation will likely result in reduced spring flows, along with warmer water temperatures in downstream habitats.

California↗
USGS2013

The importance of record length in estimating the magnitude of climatic changes: an example using 175 years of lake ice-out dates in New England

Many studies have shown that lake ice-out (break-up) dates in the Northern Hemisphere are useful indicators of late winter/early spring climate change. Trends in lake ice-out dates in New England, USA, were analyzed for 25, 50, 75, 100, 125, 150, and 175 year periods ending in 2008. More than 100 years of ice-out data were available for 19 of the 28 lakes in this study. The magnitude of trends over time depends on the length of the period considered. For the recent 25-year period, there was a mix of earlier and later ice-out dates. Lake ice-outs during the last 50 years became earlier by 1.8 days/decade (median change for all lakes with adequate data). This is a much higher rate than for longer historical periods; ice-outs became earlier by 0.6 days/decade during the last 75 years, 0.4 days/ decade during the last 100 years, and 0.6 days/decade during the last 125 years. The significance of trends was assessed under the assumption of serial independence of historical ice-out dates and under the assumption of short and long term persistence. Hypolimnion dissolved oxygen (DO) levels are an important factor in lake eutrophication and coldwater fish survival. Based on historical data available at three lakes, 32 to 46 % of the interannual variability of late summer hypolimnion DO levels was related to ice-out dates; earlier ice-outs were associated with lower DO levels.

Maine;Massachusetts;New Hampshire;Rhode Island↗
USGS2020

Subsea permafrost carbon stocks and climate change sensitivity estimated by expert assessment

The continental shelves of the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas contain large stocks of organic matter (OM) and methane (CH 4 ), representing a potential ecosystem feedback to climate change not included in international climate agreements. We performed a structured expert assessment with 25 permafrost researchers to combine quantitative estimates of the stocks and sensitivity of organic carbon in the subsea permafrost domain (i.e. unglaciated portions of the continental shelves exposed during the last glacial period). Experts estimated that the subsea permafrost domain contains ~560 gigatons carbon (GtC; 170–740, 90% confidence interval) in OM and 45 GtC (10–110) in CH 4 . Current fluxes of CH 4 and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) to the water column were estimated at 18 (2–34) and 38 (13–110) megatons C yr −1 , respectively. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) RCP8.5, the subsea permafrost domain could release 43 Gt CO 2 -equivalent (CO 2 e) by 2100 (14–110) and 190 Gt CO 2 e by 2300 (45–590), with ~30% fewer emissions under RCP2.6. The range of uncertainty demonstrates a serious knowledge gap but provides initial estimates of the magnitude and timing of the subsea permafrost climate feedback.

Environmental Research Letters↗
USGS2016

A window of opportunity for climate-change adaptation: Easing tree mortality by reducing forest basal area

Increasing aridity as a result of climate change is expected to exacerbate tree mortality. Reducing forest basal area – the cross-sectional area of tree stems within a given ground area – can decrease tree competition, which may reduce drought-induced tree mortality. However, neither the magnitude of expected mortality increases, nor the potential effectiveness of basal area reduction, has been quantified in dryland forests such as those of the drought-prone Southwest US. We used thousands of repeatedly measured forest plots to show that unusually warm and dry conditions are related to high tree mortality rates and that mortality is positively related to basal area. Those relationships suggest that while increasing high temperature extremes forecasted by climate models may lead to elevated tree mortality during the 21st century, future tree mortality might be partly ameliorated by reducing stand basal area. This adaptive forest management strategy may provide a window of opportunity for forest managers and policy makers to guide forest transitions to species and/or genotypes more suited to future climates.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗
USGS2020

Late Cenozoic climate change paces landscape adjustments to Yukon River capture

Late Cenozoic cooling and changes in glacial–interglacial cycle tempo are thought to increase global rates of erosion starting ~3 million years ago (Ma). Bedrock rivers set rates and patterns of erosion in most landscapes, but constraints on river response to late Cenozoic climate change remain elusive. Here, we determine cosmogenic isotope and luminescence ages of well-preserved bedrock terraces along the Fortymile River (Yukon River basin) to reconstruct an ~5 Myr history of fluvial adjustment to late Cenozoic climate and Yukon River headwater capture at 2.6 Ma. Post-capture Yukon River downcutting lowered the Fortymile River outlet, forcing subsequent bedrock incision throughout the Fortymile basin in two pulses, from 2.4 to 1.8 Ma and at ~1 Ma. These pulses of incision disrupted longer intervals of slow river channel sedimentation under near-consistent climate forcing from 4.8 to 2.4 Ma and from 1.8 to ~1 Ma. The Fortymile River delivers sediment to the Bering Sea, where provenance and accumulation rate changes since 4.3 Ma match observed variations in incision. Our results link alluviation and incision to late Cenozoic climate steadiness and change, respectively, and support the hypothesis that climate-forced changes in precipitation and runoff fundamentally control the pace of river incision and landscape erosion.

Alaska↗
USGS2017

Using management to address vegetation stress related to land-use and climate change

While disturbances such as fire, cutting, and grazing can be an important part of the conservation of natural lands, some adjustments to management designed to mimic natural disturbance may be necessary with ongoing and projected climate change. Stressed vegetation that is incapable of regeneration will be difficult to maintain if adults are experiencing mortality, and/or if their early life-history stages depend on disturbance. A variety of active management strategies employing disturbance are suggested, including resisting, accommodating, or directing vegetation change by manipulating management intensity and frequency. Particularly if land-use change is the main cause of vegetation stress, amelioration of these problems using management may help vegetation resist change (e.g. strategic timing of water release if a water control structure is available). Managers could direct succession by using management to push vegetation toward a new state. Despite the historical effects of management, some vegetation change will not be controllable as climates shift, and managers may have to accept some of these changes. Nevertheless, proactive measures may help managers achieve important conservation goals in the future.

Restoration Ecology↗
USGS2014

Retrospective analysis of associations between water quality and toxic blooms of golden alga ( Prymnesium parvum ) in Texas reservoirs: Implications for understanding dispersal mechanisms and impacts of climate change

Toxic blooms of golden alga (GA, Prymnesium parvum ) in Texas typically occur in winter or early spring. In North America, they were first reported in Texas in the 1980s, and a marked range expansion occurred in 2001. Although there is concern about the influence of climate change on the future distribution of GA, factors responsible for past dispersals remain uncertain. To better understand the factors that influence toxic bloom dispersal in reservoirs, this study characterized reservoir water quality associated with toxic GA blooms since 2001, and examined trends in water quality during a 20-year period bracketing the 2001 expansion. Archived data were analyzed for six impacted and six nonimpacted reservoirs from two major Texas basins: Brazos River and Colorado River. Data were simplified for analysis by pooling spatially (across sampling stations) and temporally (winter, December-February) within reservoirs and generating depth-corrected (1 m) monthly values. Classification tree analysis [period of record (POR), 2001-2010] using salinity-associated variables (specific conductance, chloride, sulfate), dissolved oxygen (DO), pH, temperature, total hardness, potassium, nitrate+nitrite, and total phosphorus indicated that salinity best predicts the toxic bloom occurrence. Minimum estimated salinities for toxic bloom formation were 0.59 and 1.02 psu in Brazos and Colorado River reservoirs, respectively. Principal component analysis (POR, 2001-2010) indicated that GA habitat is best defined by higher salinity relative to nonimpacted reservoirs, with winter DO and pH also being slightly higher and winter temperature slightly lower in impacted reservoirs. Trend analysis, however, did not reveal monotonic changes in winter water quality of GA-impacted reservoirs during the 20-year period (1991-2010) bracketing the 2001 dispersal. Therefore, whereas minimum levels of salinity are required for GA establishment and toxic blooms in Texas reservoirs, the lack of trends in water quality suggests that conditions favorable for toxic blooms pre-date the 2001 expansion. These observations are consistent with a climate change-independent scenario of past GA dispersals in Texas reservoirs driven by novel introductions into pre-existing favorable habitat. Reports of latent GA populations in certain nonimpacted reservoirs, however, provide a plausible scenario of future dispersals characterized by prolonged periods between colonization and toxic bloom development and driven by changes in water quality, natural, or anthropogenic.

Harmful Algae↗
USGS2003

Modeling mangrove forest migration along the southwest coast of Florida under climate change

Mangrove forests dominate in the intertidal zones of the tropical extent of the coast about the Gulf of Mexico, USA. Global climate change forecasts suggest that these coastal forests will be among those ecosystems most immediately threatened by projected increases in sea level and hurricanes. The interactive effects of environmental conditions that prevail in these forests and the changes that are likely to occur in a global warming climate may lead to major shifts in forest composition, structure, and function of mangrove ecosystems.

Florida↗
USGS2014

Can air temperature be used to project influences of climate change on stream temperature?

Worldwide, lack of data on stream temperature has motivated the use of regression-based statistical models to predict stream temperatures based on more widely available data on air temperatures. Such models have been widely applied to project responses of stream temperatures under climate change, but the performance of these models has not been fully evaluated. To address this knowledge gap, we examined the performance of two widely used linear and nonlinear regression models that predict stream temperatures based on air temperatures. We evaluated model performance and temporal stability of model parameters in a suite of regulated and unregulated streams with 11–44 years of stream temperature data. Although such models may have validity when predicting stream temperatures within the span of time that corresponds to the data used to develop them, model predictions did not transfer well to other time periods. Validation of model predictions of most recent stream temperatures, based on air temperature–stream temperature relationships from previous time periods often showed poor performance when compared with observed stream temperatures. Overall, model predictions were less robust in regulated streams and they frequently failed in detecting the coldest and warmest temperatures within all sites. In many cases, the magnitude of errors in these predictions falls within a range that equals or exceeds the magnitude of future projections of climate-related changes in stream temperatures reported for the region we studied (between 0.5 and 3.0 °C by 2080). The limited ability of regression-based statistical models to accurately project stream temperatures over time likely stems from the fact that underlying processes at play, namely the heat budgets of air and water, are distinctive in each medium and vary among localities and through time.

Environmental Research Letters↗
USGS1984

The variability of Holocene climate change: Evidence from varved lake sediments

Varved sediments from a lake near the present forest-prairie border in northwestern Minnesota provide an annual record of climate change for the last 10,400 years. Climate-sensitive mineral, chemical, and biological components show that the mid-Holocene dry interval between 8500 and 4000 years ago is asymmetrical and actually consists of two distinct drier pulses separated by a moister interval that lasted about 600 years. Cyclic fluctuations with periods of several hundred years were abrupt and persistent throughout the Holocene and are most clearly recorded within the two drier pulses.

Minnesota↗
USGS2000

Climate change impacts on southeastern U.S. basins

The work described herein aims to assess the impacts of potential climate change on the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) and Alabama-Coosa-Talapoosa (ACT) river basins in the Southeastern US. The assessment addresses the potential impacts on watershed hydrology (soil moisture and streamflow) and on major water uses including water supply, drought management, hydropower, environmental and ecological protection, recreation, and navigation. This investigation develops new methods, establishes and uses an integrated modeling framework, and reaches several important conclusions that bear upon river basin planning and management. Although the specific impacts vary significantly with the choice of the GCM scenario, some general conclusions are that (1) soil moisture and streamflow variability is expected to increase, and (2) flexible and adaptive water sharing agreements, management strategies, and institutional processes are best suited to cope with the uncertainty associated with future climate scenarios.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2014

Change in agricultural land use constrains adaptation of national wildlife refuges to climate change

Land-use change around protected areas limits their ability to conserve biodiversity by altering ecological processes such as natural hydrologic and disturbance regimes, facilitating species invasions, and interfering with dispersal of organisms. This paper informs USA National Wildlife Refuge System conservation planning by predicting future land-use change on lands within 25 km distance of 461 refuges in the USA using an econometric model. The model contained two differing policy scenarios, namely a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario and a ‘pro-agriculture’ scenario. Regardless of scenario, by 2051, forest cover and urban land use were predicted to increase around refuges, while the extent of range and pasture was predicted to decrease; cropland use decreased under the business-as-usual scenario, but increased under the pro-agriculture scenario. Increasing agricultural land value under the pro-agriculture scenario slowed an expected increase in forest around refuges, and doubled the rate of range and pasture loss. Intensity of land-use change on lands surrounding refuges differed by regions. Regional differences among scenarios revealed that an understanding of regional and local land-use dynamics and management options was an essential requirement to effectively manage these conserved lands. Such knowledge is particularly important given the predicted need to adapt to a changing global climate.

Environmental Conservation↗
USGS2018

Alaska snowpack response to climate change: Statewide snowfall equivalent and snowpack water scenarios

Climatically driven changes in snow characteristics (snowfall, snowpack, and snowmelt) will affect hydrologic and ecological systems in Alaska over the coming century, yet there exist no projections of downscaled future snow pack metrics for the state of Alaska. We updated historical and projected snow day fraction (PSF, the fraction of days with precipitation falling as snow) from McAfee et al. We developed modeled snowfall equivalent (SFE) derived from the product of snow-day fraction (PSF) and existing gridded precipitation for Alaska from Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning (SNAP). We validated the assumption that modeled SFE approximates historical decadally averaged snow water equivalent (SWE) observations from snowcourse and Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) sites. We present analyses of future downscaled PSF and two new products, October–March SFE and ratio of snow fall equivalent to precipitation (SFE:P) based on bias-corrected statistically downscaled projections of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) Global Climate Model (GCM) temperature and precipitation for the state of Alaska. We analyzed mid-century (2040–2069) and late-century (2070–2099) changes in PSF, SFE, and SFE:P relative to historical (1970–1999) mean temperature and present results for Alaska climate divisions and 12-digit Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC12) watersheds. Overall, estimated historical the SFE is reasonably well related to the observed SWE, with correlations over 0.75 in all decades, and correlations exceeding 0.9 in the 1960s and 1970s. In absolute terms, SFE is generally biased low compared to the observed SWE. PSF and SFE:P decrease universally across Alaska under both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emissions scenarios, with the smallest changes for RCP 4.5 in 2040–2069 and the largest for RCP 8.5 in 2070–2099. The timing and magnitude of maximum decreases in PSF vary considerably with regional average temperature, with the largest changes in months at the beginning and end of the snow season. Mean SFE changes vary widely among climate divisions, ranging from decreases between −17 and −58% for late twenty-first century in southeast, southcentral, west coast and southwest Alaska to increases up to 21% on the North Slope. SFE increases most at highest elevations and latitudes and decreases most in coastal southern Alaska. SFE:P ratios indicate a broad switch from snow-dominated to transitional annual hydrology across most of southern Alaska by mid-century, and from transitional to rain-dominated watersheds in low elevation parts of southeast Alaska by the late twenty-first century.

Alaska↗
USGS2023

Effects of climate change on the hydrologic and hydraulic response of the Caulks Creek basin, Wildwood, Missouri

The city of Wildwood, Missouri, has identified fluvial erosion along Caulks Creek as a management priority due to potential effects to infrastructure and property. The upper and middle reaches of Caulks Creek flow intermittently (only immediately after precipitation), whereas the lower reach flows perennially. This study examines the effects of climate change and added storage on the hydrologic and hydraulic response of the Caulks Creek Basin to design storms. The study uses hydrologic (Hydrologic Engineering Center Hydrologic Modeling System – HEC-HMS) and hydraulic (Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System – HEC-RAS) models furnished by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). HEC-HMS simulations were used to quantify the peak, volume, and timing of the flow response to a suite of design storms under both normal and wet antecedent conditions and for both the existing storage structures and new storage in the basin. The suite of design storms included all combinations of the following: (a) storm durations: 6-hour and 24-hour, (b) annual exceedance probabilities: 0.5, 0.2, 0.1, 0.04, 0.02, and 0.01, (c) climate conditions: current, 30-year, and 80-year predictions of future climate from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Climate Data Processing Tool. Additionally, for a selection of scenarios, results from the HEC-HMS simulations were used as boundary conditions for two-dimensional (2D) HEC-RAS simulations aimed at understanding how the distribution of velocity, shear stress, and stream power throughout the stream may be affected by projected changes in climate.

Missouri↗