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Technical comment on “Global pattern of nest predation is disrupted by climate change in shorebirds”

Martin Bulla·Jeroen Reneerkens·Emily L. Weiser·Aleksandr Sokolov·Audrey R. Taylor·Benoit Sittler·Brian J McCaffery·Daniel R. Ruthrauff·Daniel H. Catlin·David C. Payer·David H. Ward·Diana V Solovyeva·Eduardo Santos·Eldar Rakhimberdiev·Erica Nol·Eunbi Kwon·Glen S. Brown·Glenda D Hevia·H. River Gates·James A. Johnson·Jan A. van Gils·Jannik Hansen·Jean-François Lamarre·Jennie Rausch·Jesse R. Conklin·Joe Liebezeit·Joël Bêty·Johannes Lang·Jose A. Alves·Juan Fernandez-Elipe·Klaus-Michael Exo·Loic Bollache·Marcelo Bertellotti·Marie-Andree Giroux·Martijn van de Pol·Matthew D. Johnson·Megan L. Boldenow·Mihai Valcu·Mikhail Soloviev·Natalya Sokolova·Nathan R. Senner·Nicholas Lecomte·Nicolas Meyer·Niels Martin Schmidt·Olivier Gilg·Paul A Smith·Paula Machin·Rebecca L McGuire·Ricardo AS Cerboncini·Richard Ottvall·Rob van Bemmelen·Rose J Swift·Sara T Saalfeld·Sara E Jamieson·Stephen C. Brown·Theunis Piersma·Tomas Albrecht·Veronica L D’Amico·Richard B. Lanctot·Bart Kempenaers
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Abstract

Kubelka et al. (Report, 9 November 2018, p. 680-683) claim that climate change has disrupted patterns of nest predation in shorebirds. They report that predation rates have increased since the 1950s, especially in the Arctic. We describe methodological problems with their analyses and argue that there is no solid statistical support for their claims.

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Martin Bulla, Jeroen Reneerkens, Emily L. Weiser, Aleksandr Sokolov, Audrey R. Taylor, Benoit Sittler, Brian J McCaffery, Daniel R. Ruthrauff, Daniel H. Catlin, David C. Payer, David H. Ward, Diana V Solovyeva, Eduardo Santos, Eldar Rakhimberdiev, Erica Nol, Eunbi Kwon, Glen S. Brown, Glenda D Hevia, H. River Gates, James A. Johnson, Jan A. van Gils, Jannik Hansen, Jean-François Lamarre, Jennie Rausch, Jesse R. Conklin, Joe Liebezeit, Joël Bêty, Johannes Lang, Jose A. Alves, Juan Fernandez-Elipe, Klaus-Michael Exo, Loic Bollache, Marcelo Bertellotti, Marie-Andree Giroux, Martijn van de Pol, Matthew D. Johnson, Megan L. Boldenow, Mihai Valcu, Mikhail Soloviev, Natalya Sokolova, Nathan R. Senner, Nicholas Lecomte, Nicolas Meyer, Niels Martin Schmidt, Olivier Gilg, Paul A Smith, Paula Machin, Rebecca L McGuire, Ricardo AS Cerboncini, Richard Ottvall, Rob van Bemmelen, Rose J Swift, Sara T Saalfeld, Sara E Jamieson, Stephen C. Brown, Theunis Piersma, Tomas Albrecht, Veronica L D’Amico, Richard B. Lanctot, Bart Kempenaers. 2019. Technical comment on “Global pattern of nest predation is disrupted by climate change in shorebirds”. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaw8529

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