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USGS2011

Status and understanding of groundwater quality in the Monterey Bay and Salinas Valley Basins, 2005-California GAMA Priority Basin Project

Groundwater quality in the approximately 1,000 square mile (2,590 km2) Monterey Bay and Salinas Valley Basins (MS) study unit was investigated as part of the Priority Basin Project of the Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Program. The study unit is located in central California in Monterey, Santa Cruz, and San Luis Obispo Counties. The GAMA Priority Basin Project is being conducted by the California State Water Resources Control Board in collaboration with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. The GAMA MS study was designed to provide a spatially unbiased assessment of the quality of untreated (raw) groundwater in the primary aquifer systems (hereinafter referred to as primary aquifers). The assessment is based on water-quality and ancillary data collected in 2005 by the USGS from 97 wells and on water-quality data from the California Department of Public Health (CDPH) database. The primary aquifers were defined by the depth intervals of the wells listed in the CDPH database for the MS study unit. The quality of groundwater in the primary aquifers may be different from that in the shallower or deeper water-bearing zones; shallow groundwater may be more vulnerable to surficial contamination. The first component of this study, the status of the current quality of the groundwater resource, was assessed by using data from samples analyzed for volatile organic compounds (VOC), pesticides, and naturally occurring inorganic constituents, such as major ions and trace elements. This status assessment is intended to characterize the quality of groundwater resources in the primary aquifers of the MS study unit, not the treated drinking water delivered to consumers by water purveyors. Relative-concentrations (sample concentration divided by the health- or aesthetic-based benchmark concentration) were used for evaluating groundwater quality for those constituents that have Federal and (or) California regulatory or non-regulatory benchmarks for drinking-water quality. A relative-concentration greater than (>) 1.0 indicates a concentration greater than a benchmark, and less than or equal to (≤) 1.0 indicates a concentration less than or equal to a benchmark. Relative-concentrations of organic and special interest constituents [perchlorate, N-nitrosodimethylamine (NDMA), and 1,2,3-trichloropropane (1,2,3-TCP)], were classified as "high" (relative-concentration > 1.0), "moderate" (0.1 < relative-concentration ≤ 1.0), or "low" (relative-concentration ≤ 0.1). Relative-concentrations of inorganic constituents were classified as "high" (relative-concentration > 1.0), "moderate" (0.5 < relative-concentration ≤ 1.0), or "low" (relative-concentration ≤ 0.5). Aquifer-scale proportion was used as the primary metric in the status assessment for evaluating regional-scale groundwater quality. High aquifer-scale proportion was defined as the percentage of the area of the primary aquifers with a relative-concentration greater than 1.0 for a particular constituent or class of constituents; percentage is based on an areal rather than a volumetric basis. Moderate and low aquifer-scale proportions were defined as the percentage of the primary aquifers with moderate and low relative-concentrations, respectively. Two statistical approaches-grid-based and spatially weighted-were used to evaluate aquifer-scale proportions for individual constituents and classes of constituents. Grid-based and spatially-weighted estimates were comparable in the MS study unit (within 90-percent confidence intervals). Inorganic constituents with human-health benchmarks were detected at high relative-concentrations in 14.5 percent of the primary aquifers, moderate in 35.5 percent, and low in 50.0 percent. High aquifer-scale proportion of inorganic constituents primarily reflected high aquifer-scale proportions of nitrate (7.9 percent), molybdenum (2.9 percent), arsenic (2.8 percent), boron (1.9 percent), and gross alpha-beta radioactivity (1.5 percent). Relative-concentrations of organic constituents (one or more) were high in 0.2 percent, moderate in 6.6 percent, and low in 93.2 percent (not detected in 48.1 percent) of the primary aquifers. The high aquifer-scale proportion of organic constituents primarily reflected high aquifer-scale proportions of tetrachloroethene (0.1 percent) and methyl tert-butyl ether (0.1 percent). Relative-concentration for inorganic constituents with secondary maximum contaminant levels, manganese, total dissolved solids, iron, sulfate, and chloride were high in 18.6, 8.6, 7.1, 2.9, and 1.4 percent of the primary aquifers, respectively. Of the 205 organic and special-interest constituents analyzed, 32 constituents were detected. One organic constituent, the herbicide simazine, was frequently detected (in 10 percent or more of samples), but was detected at low relative-concentrations. The second component of this study, the understanding assessment, identified the natural and human factors that affect groundwater quality by evaluating land use, physical characteristics of the wells, and geochemical conditions of the aquifer. Results from these evaluations were used to explain the occurrence and distribution of constituents in the study unit. The understanding assessment indicated that most wells that contained nitrate were classified as being in agricultural land-use areas, and depths to the top of perforations in most of the wells were less than 350 ft (76 m). High and moderate relative-concentrations of arsenic may be attributed to reductive dissolution of manganese or iron oxides, or to desorption or inhibition of arsenic sorption under alkaline conditions. Arsenic concentrations increased with increasing groundwater depth and residence time (age). Simazine was detected more often in groundwater from wells with surrounding land use classified as agricultural or urban, and with top of perforation depths less than 200 ft (61 m), than in groundwater from wells with natural land use or with deeper depths. Tritium, helium-isotope, and carbon-14 data were used to classify the predominant age of groundwater samples into three categories: modern (water that has entered the aquifer since 1953), pre-modern (water that entered the aquifer prior to 1953 to tens of thousands of years ago), and mixed (mixtures of modern- and pre-modern-age waters). Arsenic concentrations were significantly greater in groundwater with pre-modern age classification than in groundwater with modern-age classification, suggesting that arsenic accumulates with groundwater residence time.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2010

Groundwater-quality data for the Sierra Nevada study unit, 2008: Results from the California GAMA program

Groundwater quality in the approximately 25,500-square-mile Sierra Nevada study unit was investigated in June through October 2008, as part of the Priority Basin Project of the Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Program. The GAMA Priority Basin Project is being conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the California State Water Resources Control Board (SWRCB). The Sierra Nevada study was designed to provide statistically robust assessments of untreated groundwater quality within the primary aquifer systems in the study unit, and to facilitate statistically consistent comparisons of groundwater quality throughout California. The primary aquifer systems (hereinafter, primary aquifers) are defined by the depth of the screened or open intervals of the wells listed in the California Department of Public Health (CDPH) database of wells used for public and community drinking-water supplies. The quality of groundwater in shallower or deeper water-bearing zones may differ from that in the primary aquifers; shallow groundwater may be more vulnerable to contamination from the surface. In the Sierra Nevada study unit, groundwater samples were collected from 84 wells (and springs) in Lassen, Plumas, Butte, Sierra, Yuba, Nevada, Placer, El Dorado, Amador, Alpine, Calaveras, Tuolumne, Madera, Mariposa, Fresno, Inyo, Tulare, and Kern Counties. The wells were selected on two overlapping networks by using a spatially-distributed, randomized, grid-based approach. The primary grid-well network consisted of 30 wells, one well per grid cell in the study unit, and was designed to provide statistical representation of groundwater quality throughout the entire study unit. The lithologic grid-well network is a secondary grid that consisted of the wells in the primary grid-well network plus 53 additional wells and was designed to provide statistical representation of groundwater quality in each of the four major lithologic units in the Sierra Nevada study unit: granitic, metamorphic, sedimentary, and volcanic rocks. One natural spring that is not used for drinking water was sampled for comparison with a nearby primary grid well in the same cell. Groundwater samples were analyzed for organic constituents (volatile organic compounds [VOC], pesticides and pesticide degradates, and pharmaceutical compounds), constituents of special interest (N-nitrosodimethylamine [NDMA] and perchlorate), naturally occurring inorganic constituents (nutrients, major ions, total dissolved solids, and trace elements), and radioactive constituents (radium isotopes, radon-222, gross alpha and gross beta particle activities, and uranium isotopes). Naturally occurring isotopes and geochemical tracers (stable isotopes of hydrogen and oxygen in water, stable isotopes of carbon, carbon-14, strontium isotopes, and tritium), and dissolved noble gases also were measured to help identify the sources and ages of the sampled groundwater. Three types of quality-control samples (blanks, replicates, and samples for matrix spikes) each were collected at approximately 10 percent of the wells sampled for each analysis, and the results for these samples were used to evaluate the quality of the data for the groundwater samples. Field blanks rarely contained detectable concentrations of any constituent, suggesting that contamination from sample collection, handling, and analytical procedures was not a significant source of bias in the data for the groundwater samples. Differences between replicate samples were within acceptable ranges, with few exceptions. Matrix-spike recoveries were within acceptable ranges for most compounds. This study did not attempt to evaluate the quality of water delivered to consumers; after withdrawal from the ground, groundwater typically is treated, disinfected, or blended with other waters to maintain water quality. Regulatory benchmarks apply to finished drinking water that is served to the consumer, not to untreated groundwater. However, to provide some context for the results, concentrations of constituents measured in the groundwater were compared with regulatory and nonregulatory health-based benchmarks established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) and CDPH and with nonregulatory aesthetic and technical benchmarks established by CDPH. Comparisons between data collected for this study and drinking-water benchmarks are for illustrative purposes only and do not indicate compliance or noncompliance with regulatory benchmarks. All organic constituents and most inorganic constituents that were detected in groundwater samples from the 30 primary grid wells in the Sierra Nevada study unit were detected at concentrations less than drinking-water benchmarks. Of the 150 organic and special-interest constituents analyzed, 21 were detected in groundwater samples; all concentrations were less than regulatory and nonregulatory health-based benchmarks, and most were less than 1/10th of benchmark levels. One or more organic constituents were detected in 37 percent of the primary grid wells, and perchlorate was detected in 27 percent of the primary grid wells. Most samples analyzed for inorganic and radioactive constituents had concentrations or activities less than regulatory and nonregulatory health-based benchmarks. Nutrients were not detected at concentrations greater than health-based benchmarks. Six of the 30 primary grid wells (20 percent) and 7 of the 53 lithologic grid wells had concentrations of or activities for one or two constituents that were greater than the benchmarks. Constituents present in one or more samples at concentrations or activities greater than health-based benchmarks were arsenic (5 wells, MCL-US), gross alpha particle activity (4 wells, MCL-US), boron (2 wells, NL-CA), fluoride (1 well, MCL-CA), and selenium (1 well, MCL-US). Two of the wells that had high gross alpha particle activities had uranium concentrations (MCL-CA) and uranium activities (MCL-CA) greater than the benchmark levels. Four of the 29 samples analyzed had activities of radon-222 greater than the proposed alternative MCL-US. Most samples analyzed for inorganic constituents that had nonregulatory, aesthetic-based benchmarks (SMCLs) had concentrations less than these benchmarks. Total dissolved solids concentrations were less than the upper SMCL-CA in all 83 primary and lithologic grid well samples, and TDS concentrations were less than the recommended SMCL-CA in 79 of these samples. Manganese concentrations were greater than the SMCL-CA in 2 of the 30 primary grid wells (7 percent) and in 6 of the 53 lithologic grid wells, and iron concentrations were greater than the SMCL-CA in the same 2 primary grid wells and in 5 of the same lithologic grid wells.

California↗

USGS2014

Status and understanding of groundwater quality in the Klamath Mountains study unit, 2010: California GAMA Priority Basin Project

Groundwater quality in the Klamath Mountains (KLAM) study unit was investigated as part of the Priority Basin Project of the California Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Program. The study unit is located in Del Norte, Humboldt, Shasta, Siskiyou, Tehama, and Trinity Counties. The GAMA Priority Basin Project is being conducted by the California State Water Resources Control Board in collaboration with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. The GAMA Priority Basin Project was designed to provide a spatially unbiased, statistically robust assessment of the quality of untreated (raw) groundwater in the primary aquifer system. The assessment is based on water-quality data and explanatory factors for groundwater samples collected in 2010 by the USGS from 39 sites and on water-quality data from the California Department of Public Health (CDPH) water-quality database. The primary aquifer system was defined by the depth intervals of the wells listed in the CDPH water-quality database for the KLAM study unit. The quality of groundwater in the primary aquifer system may be different from that in the shallower or deeper water-bearing zones; shallow groundwater may be more vulnerable to surficial contamination. This study included two types of assessments: (1) a status assessment , which characterized the status of the current quality of the groundwater resource by using data from samples analyzed for volatile organic compounds, pesticides, and naturally occurring inorganic constituents, such as major ions and trace elements, and (2) an understanding assessment , which evaluated the natural and human factors potentially affecting the groundwater quality. The assessments were intended to characterize the quality of groundwater resources in the primary aquifer system of the KLAM study unit, not the quality of treated drinking water delivered to consumers by water purveyors. Relative-concentrations (sample concentrations divided by the health- or aesthetic-based benchmark concentrations) were used for evaluating groundwater quality for those constituents that have Federal or California regulatory or non-regulatory benchmarks for drinking-water quality. A relative-concentration greater than (>) 1.0 indicates a concentration greater than a benchmark, and a relative-concentration less than or equal to (≤) 1.0 indicates a concentration less than or equal to a benchmark. Relative-concentrations of organic constituents were classified as “high” (relative-concentration > 1.0), “moderate” (0.1 < relative-concentration ≤ 1.0), or “low” (relative-concentration ≤ 0.1). For inorganic constituents, the boundary between low and moderate relative-concentration was set at 0.5. Aquifer-scale proportion was used in the status assessment as the primary metric for evaluating regional-scale groundwater quality. High aquifer-scale proportion is defined as the percentage of the area of the primary aquifer system with a relative-concentration greater than 1.0 for a particular constituent or class of constituents; percentage is based on an areal rather than a volumetric basis. Moderate and low aquifer-scale proportions were defined as the percentages of the primary aquifer system with moderate and low relative-concentrations, respectively. The KLAM study unit includes more than 8,800 square miles (mi 2 ), but only those areas near the sampling sites, about 920 mi 2 , are included in the areal assessment of the study unit. Two statistical approaches—grid-based and spatially weighted—were used to evaluate aquifer-scale proportions for individual constituents and classes of constituents. To confirm this methodology, 90 percent confidence intervals were calculated for the grid-based high aquifer-scale proportions and were compared to the spatially weighted results, which were found to be within these confidence intervals in all cases. Grid-based results were selected for use in the status assessment unless, as was observed in a few cases, a grid-based result was zero and the spatially weighted result was not zero, in which case, the spatially weighted result was used. The status assessment showed that inorganic constituents with human-health benchmarks were detected at high relative-concentrations in 2.6 percent of the primary aquifer system and at moderate relative-concentrations in 10 percent of the system. The high aquifer-scale proportion for inorganic constituents mainly reflected the high aquifer-scale proportions of boron. Inorganic constituents with secondary maximum contaminant levels were detected at high relative-concentrations in 13 percent of the primary aquifer system and at moderate relative-concentrations in 10 percent of the system. The constituents present at high relative-concentrations included iron and manganese. Organic constituents with human-health benchmarks were not detected at high relative-concentrations, but were detected at moderate relative-concentrations in 1.9 percent of the primary aquifer system. The 1.9 percent reflected a spatially weighted moderate aquifer-scale proportion for the gasoline additive methyl tert-butyl ether. Of the 148 organic constituents analyzed, 14 constituents were detected. Only one organic constituent had a detection frequency of greater than 10 percent—the trihalomethane, chloroform. The second component of this study, the understanding assessment , identified the natural and human factors that may have affected the groundwater quality in the KLAM study unit by evaluating statistical correlations between water-quality constituents and potential explanatory factors. The potential explanatory factors evaluated were aquifer lithology, land use, hydrologic conditions, depth, groundwater age, and geochemical conditions. Results of the statistical evaluations were used to explain the occurrence and distribution of constituents in the KLAM study unit. Groundwater age distribution (modern, mixed, or pre-modern), redox class (oxic, mixed, or anoxic), and dissolved oxygen concentration were the explanatory factors that best explained occurrence patterns of the inorganic constituents. High concentrations of boron were found to be associated with groundwater classified as mixed or pre-modern with respect to groundwater age. Boron was also negatively correlated to dissolved oxygen and positively correlated to specific conductance. Iron and manganese concentrations were strongly associated with low dissolved oxygen concentrations, anoxic and mixed redox classifications, and pre-modern groundwater. Specific conductance concentrations were found to be related to pre-modern groundwater, low dissolved oxygen concentrations, and high pH. Chloroform was selected for additional evaluation in the understanding assessment because it was detected in more than 10 percent of wells sampled in the KLAM study unit. Septic tank density was the only explanatory factor that was found to relate to chloroform concentrations.

California↗

USGS2011

Status and understanding of groundwater quality in the San Diego Drainages Hydrogeologic Province, 2004: California GAMA Priority Basin Project

Groundwater quality in the approximately 3,900-square-mile (mi 2 ) San Diego Drainages Hydrogeologic Province (hereinafter San Diego) study unit was investigated from May through July 2004 as part of the Priority Basin Project of the Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Program. The study unit is located in southwestern California in the counties of San Diego, Riverside, and Orange. The GAMA Priority Basin Project is being conducted by the California State Water Resources Control Board in collaboration with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. The GAMA San Diego study was designed to provide a statistically robust assessment of untreated-groundwater quality within the primary aquifer systems. The assessment is based on water-quality and ancillary data collected by the USGS from 58 wells in 2004 and water-quality data from the California Department of Public Health (CDPH) database. The primary aquifer systems (hereinafter referred to as the primary aquifers) were defined by the depth interval of the wells listed in the California Department of Public Health (CDPH) database for the San Diego study unit. The San Diego study unit consisted of four study areas: Temecula Valley (140 mi 2 ), Warner Valley (34 mi 2 ), Alluvial Basins (166 mi 2 ), and Hard Rock (850 mi 2 ). The quality of groundwater in shallow or deep water-bearing zones may differ from that in the primary aquifers. For example, shallow groundwater may be more vulnerable to surficial contamination than groundwater in deep water-bearing zones. This study had two components: the status assessment and the understanding assessment. The first component of this study-the status assessment of the current quality of the groundwater resource-was assessed by using data from samples analyzed for volatile organic compounds (VOC), pesticides, and naturally occurring inorganic constituents, such as major ions and trace elements. The status assessment is intended to characterize the quality of groundwater resources within the primary aquifers of the San Diego study unit, not the treated drinking water delivered to consumers by water purveyors. The second component of this study-the understanding assessment-identified the natural and human factors that affect groundwater quality by evaluating land use, well construction, and geochemical conditions of the aquifer. Results from these evaluations were used to help explain the occurrence and distribution of selected constituents in the study unit. Relative-concentrations (sample concentration divided by benchmark concentration) were used as the primary metric for relating concentrations of constituents in groundwater samples to water-quality benchmarks for those constituents that have Federal and (or) California benchmarks. For organic and special-interest constituents, relative-concentrations were classified as high (> 1.0), moderate (> 0.1 and ≤1.0), and low (≤0.1). For inorganic constituents, relative concentrations were classified as high (> 1.0), moderate (> 0.5 and ≤1.0), and low (≤0.5). Grid-based and spatially weighted approaches were then used to evaluate the proportion of the primary aquifers (aquifer-scale proportions) with high, moderate, and low relative-concentrations for individual compounds and classes of constituents. One or more of the inorganic constituents with health-based benchmarks were high (relative to those benchmarks) in 17.6 percent of the primary aquifers in the Temecula Valley, Warner Valley, and Alluvial Basins study areas (hereinafter also collectively referred to as the Alluvial Fill study areas because they are composed of alluvial fill aquifers), and in 25.0 percent of the Hard Rock study area. Inorganic constituents with health-based benchmarks that were frequently detected at high relative-concentrations included vanadium (V), arsenic (As), and boron (B). Vanadium and As concentrations were not significantly correlated to either urban or agricultural land use indicating natural sources as the primary contributors of these constituents to groundwater. The positive correlation of B concentration to urban land-use was significant which indicates that anthropogenic activities are a contributing source of B to groundwater. The correlation of V, As and B concentrations to pH was positive, indicating that in alkaline groundwater these constituents are being desorbed from, or being inhibited from adsorbing to, particle surfaces. Inorganic constituents with aesthetic benchmarks that were detected at high relative-concentrations include manganese (Mn), iron (Fe), and total dissolved solids (TDS). In the Alluvial Fill study areas, Mn and TDS were detected at high relative-concentrations in 13.7 percent of the primary aquifers, and Fe in 6.9 percent. In the Hard Rock study area, Mn was detected at high relative-concentrations in 33.3 percent of the primary aquifers, and TDS in 16.7 percent; Fe was not detected at high relative-concentrations. Total dissolved solids concentrations were significantly correlated to agricultural land use suggesting that agricultural practices are a contributing source of TDS to groundwater. Manganese and Fe concentrations were highest in groundwater with low dissolved oxygen and pH indicating that the reductive dissolution of oxyhydroxides may be an important mechanism for the mobilization of Mn and Fe in groundwater. TDS concentrations were highest in shallow wells and in modern (< 50 yrs) groundwater which indicates anthropogenic activities as a source of TDS concentrations in groundwater. The relative-concentrations of organic constituents with health-based benchmarks were high in 3.0 percent of the primary aquifers in the Alluvial Fill study areas. A single detection in the Alluvial Basins study area of the discontinued gasoline oxygenate methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) was the only organic constituent detected at a high relative-concentration; high relative-concentrations of these constituents were not detected in the Hard Rock study area. Twelve of 88 VOCs and 14 of 123 pesticides and pesticide degradates analyzed in grid wells were detected. Chloroform was the only VOC detected in more than 10 percent of the grid wells. The herbicides simazine, atrazine, and prometon were each detected in greater than 10 percent of the grid wells. Perchlorate was detected in 22 percent of the grid wells sampled. The understanding assessment showed a significant correlation of trihalomethanes (THMs) and solvents to urban land-use, indicating that detections of these constituents are more likely to occur in groundwater underlying urbanized areas of the study unit. MTBE concentrations were negatively correlated to the distance from the nearest leaking underground fuel tank, indicating that point sources are the most significant contributing factor for MTBE concentrations to groundwater in the study unit. The positive correlation of THM and herbicide concentrations to modern groundwater was significant, as was the negative correlation of herbicide concentrations to pH and anoxic groundwater. The negative correlation of herbicides to pH and anoxic groundwater was likely due to the fact that these constituents were detected more frequently in shallow wells where groundwater conditions tend to be oxic with relatively low pH.

California↗

USGS2016

Groundwater quality, age, and susceptibility and vulnerability to nitrate contamination with linkages to land use and groundwater flow, Upper Black Squirrel Creek Basin, Colorado, 2013

The Upper Black Squirrel Creek Basin is located about 25 kilometers east of Colorado Springs, Colorado. The primary aquifer is a productive section of unconsolidated deposits that overlies bedrock units of the Denver Basin and is a critical resource for local water needs, including irrigation, domestic, and commercial use. The primary aquifer also serves an important regional role by the export of water to nearby communities in the Colorado Springs area. Changes in land use and development over the last decade, which includes substantial growth of subdivisions in the Upper Black Squirrel Creek Basin, have led to uncertainty regarding the potential effects to water quality throughout the basin. In response, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Cherokee Metropolitan District, El Paso County, Meridian Service Metropolitan District, Mountain View Electric Association, Upper Black Squirrel Creek Groundwater Management District, Woodmen Hills Metropolitan District, Colorado State Land Board, and Colorado Water Conservation Board, and the stakeholders represented in the Groundwater Quality Study Committee of El Paso County conducted an assessment of groundwater quality and groundwater age with an emphasis on characterizing nitrate in the groundwater. Groundwater-quality samples were collected from 50 randomly selected wells between May and June 2013. The samples were analyzed for major ions, nutrients, dissolved gases, tritium ( 3 H), chlorofluorocarbons (CFC-11, CFC-12, and CFC-113), and fuel products (such as benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylenes). None of the groundwater samples exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) National Primary Drinking Water Regulations for primary maximum contaminant levels (MCL) for major ions. Secondary maximum contaminant levels, which are not health concerns and affect mainly taste, color, or odor of the water, were observed in rare instances for pH (2 samples), chloride (1 sample), iron (3 samples), and manganese (8 samples). The secondary maximum contaminant level for total dissolved solids was also exceeded for two samples. Nitrate (nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen in groundwater) was elevated above the estimated background concentration of natural recharge waters of 1 milligram per liter (mg/L) in 44 of the 50 wells sampled and showed a median concentration of 5.4 mg/L. Nitrate concentrations were above the MCL of 10 mg/L in 5 of the 50 wells sampled and above half of the EPA MCL (5 mg/L) in 27 of the 50 wells sampled, which included samples above the MCL. Dissolved-oxygen concentrations exceeded 0.5 mg/L in 95 percent of reported values (40 of 42 samples) and exceeded 2.0 mg/L in 90 percent of reported values (38 of 42 samples). The oxidized conditions observed in most areas indicate that nitrate from fertilizers and animal or human waste was geochemically stable and could persist in the groundwater for decades or perhaps longer. A historical analysis of median nitrate concentrations over nearly three decades showed an increase in nitrate of approximately 1 mg/L from 4.3 to 5.4 mg/L, although the increase was not determined to be significantly different using nonparametric statistical methods. Major-ion data indicate that groundwater representative of the primary aquifer was classified as calcium-sodium bicarbonate type water. Other water samples from wells located mainly along the periphery of the primary aquifer had cation-anion compositions consistent with distinct water sources, including groundwater contributions from the underlying bedrock aquifers. The areas with differentiable water sources were located mainly where alluvial deposits were thin and geologic contacts to the underlying bedrock aquifers were relatively shallow. Nitrate concentrations in the groundwater were evaluated for relations to land use. An agricultural region was defined using a sequence of land satellite imagery. Groundwater flow directions interpreted from median water-table elevations measured from 2000 to 2013 were used in conjunction with cropland locations to define the agricultural region boundaries by encompassing potential pathways of nitrate transport in the groundwater from nitrogen-based fertilizers. A statistically significant higher median nitrate concentration was observed for areas inside the agricultural region (6.7 mg/L) compared to areas outside the agricultural region (2.3 mg/L), although median concentrations in both areas were below the MCL (10 mg/L). Median nitrate concentration was also significantly greater in land parcels with septic use (4.9 mg/L) compared to nonseptic parcels (1.7 mg/L). In general, agriculture or septic use was identified as the primary source of nitrate, depending on location, while commercial, county, grazing, and residential land uses were generally secondary sources of nitrate. Apparent groundwater ages were estimated from chlorofluorocarbons (CFC-11, CFC-12, and CFC-113) and tritium ( 3 H) data using models that assumed piston flow and binary mixing (dilution of a young component with old, tracer-free water). The mean and median groundwater ages were about 30 years and the standard deviation was 6 years, indicating that most groundwater in the primary aquifer was “young” water that had recharged to the aquifer over the last few decades (post-1950s). The median fraction of young water was about 71 percent, and the standard deviation was 29 percent. The remaining water predated the 1950s, which may have originated from deeper geologic formations or may represent slow moving groundwater within the primary aquifer. Some of the oldest groundwater ages (older than 30 years) were observed in the upper reaches of the aquifer to the northwest where the primary aquifer is thin and intersects bedrock, supporting the hypothesis of geochemically distinct groundwater entering the primary aquifer from below. Groundwater that had reached the central part of the aquifer from upgradient areas of the basin was variable in age because of differences in flow paths and travel velocities. The groundwater age analysis showed that current (2013) land-use practices could affect water quality over decades to come, and that responses to remedial actions could be slow, especially for constituents, such as nitrate, that are stable under oxidized conditions. Fuel products (including acetone, benzene, diisopropyl ether, ethylbenzene, methyl acetate, methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), methyl tert-pentyl ether, m- + p-xylene, o-xylene, tert-amyl alcohol, tert-butyl alcohol, tert-butyl ethyl ether, and toluene) were analyzed in groundwater from 49 of the 50 wells. Water from seven sites had detections for fuel compounds; all concentrations were below MCL. The results provided assurance of water quality and a valuable baseline to evaluate future trends of fuel constituents as the region is further developed. Probability maps were developed from logistic regression models to examine the likelihood that nitrate concentrations in groundwater exceeded specified levels. Susceptibility analysis examined relations between mid-level (5.0 mg/L) nitrate concentrations and climatic, hydrologic, and geologic variables; the significant variables were identified as depth to groundwater, soil organic matter, and soil water storage to 25-centimeter (cm) depth. The vulnerability assessments included natural factors driving susceptibility but also human factors related to land use and septic use. Vulnerability to low-level (2.5 mg/L) nitrate was related to depth to groundwater, septic zoning, and soil organic matter. The results highlighted that septic zoning affected low-level nitrate concentrations. Vulnerability to mid-level (5.0 mg/L) nitrate was examined using all 50 samples and also with two data outliers removed, which showed relatively high nitrate concentrations but also anomalous water chemistry or were located beyond the primary study area. Vulnerability to mid-level (5.0 mg/L) nitrate using all 50 samples was related to depth to groundwater, land use, septic use within a 500-meter (m) radius, soil water storage to a 25-cm depth, soil organic matter, and whether a location was within the agricultural region. The mid-level (5.0 mg/L) vulnerability model using 48 samples (two outliers removed) produced the best overall fit and was related to the same variables as when using all samples except septic use. The results for mid-level vulnerability provided additional support that septic use was associated with low levels of nitrate in the groundwater. Soil properties and land use were identified as the main drivers of moderate nitrate concentrations. Probabilities of exceeding low-level nitrate concentrations were high in most areas with the lowest probabilities usually to the northwest along thin geologic deposits in the upper part of the basin. The results of this investigation offer the foundational information needed for developing best management practices to mitigate nitrate contamination, basic concepts on water quality to aid public education, and information to guide regulatory measures if policy makers determine this is warranted. Science-based decision making will require continued monitoring and analysis of water quality in the future.

Colorado↗

USGS2011

Status and understanding of groundwater quality in the Santa Clara River Valley, 2007-California GAMA Priority Basin Project

Groundwater quality in the approximately 460-square-mile Santa Clara River Valley study unit was investigated from April through June 2007 as part of the Priority Basin Project of the Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Program. The GAMA Priority Basin Project is conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in collaboration with the California State Water Resources Control Board and the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. The Santa Clara River Valley study unit contains eight groundwater basins located in Ventura and Los Angeles Counties and is within the Transverse and Selected Peninsular Ranges hydrogeologic province. The Santa Clara River Valley study unit was designed to provide a spatially unbiased assessment of the quality of untreated (raw) groundwater in the primary aquifer system. The assessment is based on water-quality and ancillary data collected in 2007 by the USGS from 42 wells on a spatially distributed grid, and on water-quality data from the California Department of Public Health (CDPH) database. The primary aquifer system was defined as that part of the aquifer system corresponding to the perforation intervals of wells listed in the CDPH database for the Santa Clara River Valley study unit. The quality of groundwater in the primary aquifer system may differ from that in shallow or deep water-bearing zones; for example, shallow groundwater may be more vulnerable to surficial contamination. Eleven additional wells were sampled by the USGS to improve understanding of factors affecting water quality.The status assessment of the quality of the groundwater used data from samples analyzed for anthropogenic constituents, such as volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and pesticides, as well as naturally occurring inorganic constituents, such as major ions and trace elements. The status assessment is intended to characterize the quality of untreated groundwater resources in the primary aquifers of the Santa Clara River Valley study unit, not the quality of treated drinking water delivered to consumers. Relative-concentrations (sample concentration divided by health- or aesthetic-based benchmark concentration) were used for evaluating groundwater quality for those constituents that have Federal and (or) California benchmarks. A relative-concentration greater than 1.0 indicates a concentration greater than a benchmark. For organic and special interest constituents, relative-concentrations were classified as high (greater than 1.0); moderate (greater than 0.1 and less than or equal to 1.0); and low (less than or equal to 0.1). For inorganic constituents, relative-concentrations were classified as high (greater than 1.0); moderate (greater than 0.5 and less than or equal to 1.0); and low (less than or equal to 0.5). Aquifer-scale proportion was used as the primary metric in the status assessment for evaluating regional-scale groundwater quality. High aquifer-scale proportion is defined as the areal percentage of the primary aquifer system with relative-concentrations greater than 1.0. Moderate and low aquifer-scale proportions are defined as the areal percentage of the primary aquifer system with moderate and low relative-concentrations, respectively. Two statistical approaches, grid-based and spatially weighted, were used to evaluate aquifer-scale proportions for individual constituents and classes of constituents. Grid-based and spatially weighted estimates were comparable in the Santa Clara River Valley study unit (within 90 percent confidence intervals). The status assessment showed that inorganic constituents were more prevalent and relative-concentrations were higher than for organic constituents. For inorganic constituents with human-health benchmarks, relative-concentrations (of one or more constituents) were high in 21 percent of the primary aquifer system areally, moderate in 30 percent, and low or not detected in 49 percent. Inorganic constituents with human-health benchmarks with high aquifer-scale proportions were nitrate (15 percent of the primary aquifer system), gross alpha radioactivity (14 percent), vanadium (3.4 percent), boron (3.2 percent), and arsenic (2.3 percent). For inorganic constituents with aesthetic benchmarks, relative-concentrations (of one or more constituents) were high in 54 percent of the primary aquifer system, moderate in 41 percent, and low or not detected in 4 percent. The inorganic constituents with aesthetic benchmarks with high aquifer-scale proportions were total dissolved solids (35 percent), sulfate (22 percent), manganese (38 percent), and iron (22 percent). In contrast, the results of the status assessment for organic constituents with human-health benchmarks showed that relative-concentrations were high in 0 percent (not detected above benchmarks) of the primary aquifer system, moderate in 2.4 percent, and low or not detected in 97 percent. Relative-concentrations of the special interest constituent, perchlorate, were moderate in 12 percent of the primary aquifer system and low or not detected in 88 percent. Relative-concentrations of two VOCs-carbon tetrachloride and trichloroethene (TCE)-were moderate in 2.4 percent of the primary aquifer system. One VOC-chloroform (water disinfection byproduct)-was detected in more than 10 percent of the primary aquifer system but at low relative-concentrations. Of the 88 VOCs and gasoline oxygenates analyzed, 71 were not detected. Pesticides were low or not detected in 100 percent of the primary aquifer system. Of the 118 pesticides and pesticide degradates analyzed, 13 were detected and 5 of those had human-health benchmarks. Two of these five pesticides-simazine and atrazine-were detected in more than 10 percent of the primary aquifer system. The second component of this study, the understanding assessment, was to identify the natural and human factors that affect groundwater quality on the basis of the evaluation of land use, physical characteristics of the wells, and geochemical conditions of the aquifer. Results from these analyses are used to explain the occurrence and distribution of selected constituents in the primary aquifer system of the Santa Clara River Valley study unit. The understanding assessment indicated that water quality varied spatially primarily in relation to depth, groundwater age, reduction-oxidation conditions, pH, and location in the regional groundwater flow system. High and moderate relative-concentrations of nitrate and low relative-concentrations of pesticides were correlated with shallow depths to top-of-perforation, and with high dissolved oxygen. Groundwater of modern and mixed ages had higher nitrate than pre-modern-age groundwater. Decreases in concentrations of total dissolved solids (TDS) and sulfate were correlated with increases in pH. This relationship probably indicates relations of these constituents with increasing depth across most of the Santa Clara River Valley study unit. Previous studies have indicated multiple sources of high concentrations of TDS and sulfate and multiple geochemical processes affecting these constituents in the Santa Clara River Valley study unit. Manganese and iron concentrations were highest in pre-modern-age groundwater at depth and in the downgradient area of the Santa Clara River Valley study unit (closest to the coastline), indicating the prevalence of reducing groundwater conditions in these aquifer zones.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2010

Status and understanding of groundwater quality in the North San Francisco Bay groundwater basins, 2004: California GAMA Priority Basin Project

Groundwater quality in the approximately 1,000-square-mile (2,590-square-kilometer) North San Francisco Bay study unit was investigated as part of the Priority Basin Project of the Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Program. The study unit is located in northern California in Marin, Napa, and Sonoma Counties. The GAMA Priority Basin Project is being conducted by the California State Water Resources Control Board in collaboration with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. The GAMA North San Francisco Bay study was designed to provide a spatially unbiased assessment of untreated groundwater quality in the primary aquifer systems. The assessment is based on water-quality and ancillary data collected by the USGS from 89 wells in 2004 and water-quality data from the California Department of Public Health (CDPH) database. The primary aquifer systems (hereinafter referred to as primary aquifers) were defined by the depth interval of the wells listed in the CDPH database for the North San Francisco Bay study unit. The quality of groundwater in shallower or deeper water-bearing zones may differ from that in the primary aquifers; shallower groundwater may be more vulnerable to surficial contamination. The first component of this study, the status of the current quality of the groundwater resource, was assessed by using data from samples analyzed for volatile organic compounds (VOC), pesticides, and naturally occurring inorganic constituents, such as major ions and trace elements. This status assessment is intended to characterize the quality of groundwater resources within the primary aquifers of the North San Francisco Bay study unit, not the treated drinking water delivered to consumers by water purveyors. Relative-concentrations (sample concentration divided by the health- or aesthetic-based benchmark concentration) were used for evaluating groundwater quality for those constituents that have Federal and (or) California benchmarks. A relative-concentration greater than (>) 1.0 indicates a concentration above a benchmark, and less than or equal to (≤) 1.0 indicates a concentration equal to or below a benchmark. Relative-concentrations of organic and special interest constituents were classified as “high” (relative-concentration > 1.0), “moderate” (0.1 < relative-concentration ≤ 1.0), or “low” (relative-concentration ≤ 0.1). Inorganic constituent relative-concentrations were classified as “high” (relative-concentration > 1.0), “moderate” (0.5 < relative-concentration ≤ 1.0), or “low” (relative-concentration ≤ 0.5). Aquifer-scale proportion was used as a metric for evaluating regional-scale groundwater quality. High aquifer-scale proportion is defined as the percentage of the primary aquifers that have a relative-concentration greater than 1.0; proportion is calculated on an areal rather than a volumetric basis. Moderate and low aquifer-scale proportions were defined as the percentage of the primary aquifers that have moderate and low relative-concentrations, respectively. Two statistical approaches—grid-based and spatially-weighted—were used to evaluate aquifer-scale proportion for individual constituents and classes of constituents. Grid-based and spatially-weighted estimates were comparable in the North San Francisco Bay study unit (90-percent confidence intervals). For inorganic constituents with human-health benchmarks, relative-concentrations were high in 14.0 percent of the primary aquifers, moderate in 35.8 percent, and low in 50.2 percent. The high aquifer-scale proportion of inorganic constituents primarily reflected high aquifer-scale proportions of arsenic (10.0 percent), boron (4.1 percent), and lead (1.6 percent). In contrast, relative-concentrations of organic constituents (one or more) were high in 1.4 percent, moderate in 4.9 percent, and low in 93.7 percent (not detected in 64.8 percent) of the primary aquifers. The high aquifer-scale proportion of organic constituents primarily reflected high aquifer-scale proportions of PCE (1.3 percent), TCE (0.1 percent), and 1,1-dichloroethene (0.1 percent). The inorganic constituents with secondary maximum contaminant levels (SMCL), manganese and iron, had relative-concentrations that were high in 40.8 percent and 24.4 percent of the primary aquifers, respectively. Of the 255 organic and special-interest constituents analyzed for, 26 constituents were detected. Two organic constituents were frequently detected (in 10 percent or more of samples), the trihalomethane chloroform and the herbicide simazine, but both were detected at low relative-concentrations. The second component of this study, the understanding assessment, identified the natural and human factors that affect groundwater quality by evaluating land use, physical characteristics of the wells, geochemical conditions of the aquifer, and water temperature. Results from these evaluations were used to explain the occurrence and distribution of constituents in the study unit. The understanding assessment indicated that a majority of the wells that contained nitrate also had an urban or agricultural land-use classification, had a modern or mixed age classification, and had depths to their top perforations <100 ft (30 m). Geochemical data are consistent with partial denitrification of nitrate in some reducing groundwaters in the terminal and deeper parts of the flow system. High and moderate relative-concentrations of arsenic may be attributed to reductive dissolution of manganese or iron oxides, or to desorption or inhibition of arsenic sorption under alkaline conditions. Arsenic concentrations increased with increasing depth and groundwater age in the North San Francisco Bay study unit. High to moderate relative-concentrations of boron were primarily associated with hydrothermal activity or high-salinity waters in the Napa Sonoma lowlands. Simazine was detected in groundwater classified as modern and mixed age more often than in groundwater classified as pre-modern age, while chloroform was detected most often in groundwater classified as mixed age. Simazine and chloroform also were observed in wells that had surrounding land use classified as agricultural or land use classified as urban, and top of perforation depths less than 100 ft (30 m). Together, the occurrence of chloroform and simazine in shallow wells with modern or mixed groundwater located in urban or agricultural areas suggests that these constituents result from anthropogenic activities during the last 50 years. Tritium, helium-isotope, and carbon-14 data were used to classify the predominant age of groundwater samples into three categories: modern (water that has entered the aquifer in the last 50 years), pre-modern (water that entered the aquifer more than 50 years to tens of thousands of years ago), and mixed (mixtures of modern- and pre-modern-age waters). Arsenic, iron, and total dissolved solids (TDS) concentrations were significantly greater in groundwater having pre-modern-age classification than modern, suggesting that these constituents accumulate with groundwater residence time.

California↗

USGS2012

Simulated effects of alternative withdrawal strategies on groundwater flow in the unconfined Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system, the Rio Grande water-bearing zone, and the Atlantic City 800-foot sand in the Great Egg Harbor and Mullica River Basins, New Jersey

Groundwater is essential for water supply and plays a critical role in maintaining the environmental health of freshwater and estuarine ecosystems in the Atlantic Coastal basins of New Jersey. The unconfined Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system and the confined Atlantic City 800-foot sand are major sources of groundwater in the area, and each faces different water-supply concerns. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (NJDEP), conducted a study to simulate the effects of withdrawals in the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system, the Atlantic City 800-foot sand, and the Rio Grande water-bearing zone and to evaluate potential scenarios. The study area encompasses Atlantic County and parts of Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, Ocean, Cape May, and Cumberland Counties. The major hydrogeologic units affecting water supply in the study area are the surficial Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system, a thick diatomaceous clay confining unit in the upper part of Kirkwood Formation; the Rio Grande water-bearing zone; and the Atlantic City 800-foot sand of the Kirkwood Formation. Hydrogeologic data from 18 aquifer tests and specific capacity data from 230 wells were analyzed to provide horizontal hydraulic conductivity of the aquifers. Groundwater withdrawals are greatest from the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system, and 65 percent of the water is used for public supply. Groundwater withdrawals from the Atlantic City 800-foot sand are about half those from the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system. Ninety-five percent of the withdrawals from the Atlantic City 800-foot sand is used for public supply. Data from six streamgaging stations and 51 low-flow partial record sites were used to estimate base flow in the area. Base flow ranges from 60 to 92 percent of streamflow. A groundwater flow model of the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system, the Rio Grande water-bearing zone, and the Atlantic City 800-foot sand was developed and calibrated using water-level data from 148 wells and base-flow data from 22 gaging or low-flow partial record stations. The Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system within the Great Egg Harbor River and the Mullica River Basins was simulated on a monthly basis from 1998 through 2006. An existing regional model of the New Jersey Coastal Plain was revised to provide boundary conditions for the Great Egg Harbor and Mullica River Basin model (referred to as the Great Egg-Mullica model). In the Great Egg-Mullica model, monthly groundwater recharge rates used in the model ranged from 10-15 inches per year in 2001 to 20-25 inches per year in 2005. The mean-absolute error for 10 of the 14 long-term hydrographs used in model calibration was less than 5 ft. Groundwater flow budgets for the Great Egg-Mullica model calibration periods, May 2005 and September 2006, and for the entire model calibration period 1998 to 2006, showed that nearly 70 percent of the water entering the Atlantic City 800-foot sand came from the horizontal connection with the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system in updip areas. The groundwater flow model was used to simulate scenarios under three possible conditions: average 1998 to 2006 withdrawals (Average scenario), full-allocation withdrawals (Full Allocation scenario), and projected 2050-demand withdrawals (2050 Demand scenario). Withdrawals in the Full Allocation scenario are nearly twice the withdrawals from the Average scenario, primarily because of the potential for large agricultural withdrawals if all allocations are used. Withdrawals for the 2050 Demand scenario are about 50 percent greater than those for the Average scenario, primarily due to expected increases in withdrawals for public supply. Monthly base-flow depletion criteria were determined using the Low-Flow Margin method, currently under consideration by NJDEP, to estimate available water on an annual basis at the Hydrologic Unit Code 11 (HUC11) level and to determine whether a water-supply deficit exists. Simulations of various groundwater-withdrawal scenarios were made using the calibrated model, and results were compared with baseline conditions (no withdrawals) to determine where and when base-flow deficits may be occurring and may be expected to occur in the future. Scenarios were simulated to assess base-flow depletion that could occur from different groundwater-withdrawal situations. In the Average scenario, deficits occurred in 7 of the 14 subbasins. In the Full Allocation scenario, deficits occurred in 11 of the subbasins. In the 2050 Demand scenario, deficits occurred in 9 of the 14 subbasins. The largest deficits occurred in the Absecon Creek subbasin because the base-flow depletion criteria for this subbasin is small due to the surface-water diversions that are already occurring there and because existing groundwater withdrawals in the subbasin have resulted in base-flow depletion under current (1998-2006) conditions. Three adjusted scenarios, variations of the Average, Full Allocation, and 2050 Demand scenarios, were simulated; for the adjusted scenarios, the withdrawals were modified in stages with the intent to successively eliminate or minimize the base-flow deficits. Modifications included shifting withdrawals to a deeper part of the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system, implementing seasonal conjunctive use of shallow and deep aquifers, and specifying reductions in withdrawals within a HUC11 subbasin in deficit. The adjusted scenarios are intended to show the relative effectiveness of each of the three approaches in reducing the deficits. Most of the deficits under the Average, Full Allocation, and 2050 Demand scenarios were eliminated by reductions in withdrawals or allocations. Shifting withdrawals to a deeper part of the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system or seasonal conjunctive use did not eliminate deficits for any subbasin. Reductions in withdrawals accounted for more than 95 percent of the total reduction of deficits in all but one subbasin.

New Jersey↗

USGS2012

The U.S. Geological Survey Ecosystem Science Strategy, 2012-2022 - Advancing discovery and application through collaboration

Ecosystem science is critical to making informed decisions about natural resources that can sustain our Nation’s economic and environmental well-being. Resource managers and policy-makers are faced with countless decisions each year at local, state, tribal, territorial, and national levels on issues as diverse as renewable and non-renewable energy development, agriculture, forestry, water supply, and resource allocations at the urban-rural interface. The urgency for sound decision-making is increasing dramatically as the world is being transformed at an unprecedented pace and in uncertain directions. Environmental changes are associated with natural hazards, greenhouse gas emissions, and increasing demands for water, land, food, energy, mineral, and living resources. At risk is the Nation’s environmental capital, the goods and services provided by resilient ecosystems that are vital to the health and well-being of human societies. Ecosystem science—the study of systems of organisms interacting with their environment and the consequences of natural and human-induced change on these systems—is necessary to inform decision-makers as they develop policies to adapt to these changes. This Ecosystems Science Strategy is built on a framework that includes basic and applied science. It highlights the critical roles that USGS scientists and partners can play in building scientific understanding and providing timely information to decision-makers. The strategy underscores the connection between scientific discoveries and the application of new knowledge. The strategy integrates ecosystem science and decision-making, producing new scientific outcomes to assist resource managers and providing public benefits. The USGS is uniquely positioned to play an important role in ecosystem science. With its wide range of expertise, the agency can bring holistic, cross-scale, interdisciplinary capabilities to the design and conduct of monitoring, research, and modeling and to new technologies for data collection, management, and visualization. Collectively, these capabilities can be used to reveal ecological patterns and processes, explain how and why ecosystems change, and forecast change over different spatial and temporal scales. USGS science can provide managers with options and decision-support tools to use resources sustainably. The USGS has long-standing, collaborative relationships with the DOI and other partners in the natural sciences, in both conducting science and its application. The USGS engages these partners in cooperative investigations that otherwise would lack the necessary support or be too expensive for a single bureau to conduct. The heart of this strategy is a framework and vision for USGS ecosystems science that focuses on five long-term goals, which are seen as interconnected and reinforcing components: • Improve understanding of ecosystem structure, function, and processes. The focus for this goal is an understanding of how ecosystems work, including the dynamics of species, their populations, interactions, and genetics, and how they change across spatial and temporal scales. • Advance understanding of how drivers influence ecosystem change. The challenges here are explaining the drivers of ecosystem change, their spatio-temporal patterns, their uncertainties and interactions, and their influence on ecosystem processes and dynamics. • Improve understanding of the services that ecosystems provide to society. Here the emphasis is on the measurement of environmental capital and ecosystem services, and the identification of sources and patterns of change in space and time. • Develop tools, technologies, and capacities to inform decision-making about ecosystems. This includes developing new technologies and approaches for conducting applications-oriented ecosystem science. A principal challenge will be how to quantify uncertainty and incorporate it in decision analysis. • Apply science to enhance strategies for management, conservation, and restoration of ecosystems. These challenges include development of novel approaches to monitoring, assessment, and restoration of ecosystems; new methods to address species of concern and communities at risk; and innovations in decision analysis and support to address imminent ecosystem changes or those that are underway. Closely integrated with the five goals are four strategic approaches that provide the path forward for the USGS Ecosystems Mission Area. These approaches cross-cut all of the goals and are seen as essential to the implementation of this strategy: • Assess information needs for ecosystem science through enhanced partnerships. Work with the DOI and other agencies and institutions to identify, design, and implement priority decision-driven ecological research. • Promote the use of interdisciplinary ecosystem science. Design and conduct interdisciplinary process-oriented research in ecosystem science. • Enhance modeling and forecasting. Build models to forecast ecosystem change, assess future management scenarios, and reduce uncertainties through an adaptive learning process. • Support decision-making. Use quantitative approaches to assess the vulnerabilities of ecosystems, habitats, and species, and evaluate strategies for adaptation, restoration, and sustainable management. Following the strategic approaches are a set of proposed actions that represent a sampling of specific activities that align with this strategy and that address the Nation’s most pressing environmental needs. The strategy emphasizes coordination of activities across the USGS mission areas pursuant to these goals. Ecosystem science is inherently interdisciplinary and requires a broad perspective that incorporates the biological and physical sciences, climate science, information technology, and scientific capacity in mission areas across the Bureau. With its emphasis on coordination, this strategy can provide a critical underpinning for integrated science efforts with scientists from multiple mission areas of the USGS working together. Of course, the USGS will continue to conduct both discipline-specific and interdisciplinary investigations, and both will continue to be vital parts of the ecosystem science portfolio. Finally, the strategy stresses the importance of coordination with other Federal agencies and organizations in the natural resources community. The USGS collaborates with resource agencies in the DOI and other organizations throughout the world to meet societal needs for species and ecosystem management. Working with these agencies and organizations, the USGS will play a key role over the next decade in advancing the scientific foundation for sustaining the natural resources that diverse, productive, resilient ecosystems provide.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2013

U.S. Geological Survey ecosystems science strategy—Advancing discovery and application through collaboration

Executive Summary Ecosystem science is critical to making informed decisions about natural resources that can sustain our Nation’s economic and environmental well-being. Resource managers and policymakers are faced with countless decisions each year at local, regional, and national levels on issues as diverse as renewable and nonrenewable energy development, agriculture, forestry, water supply, and resource allocations at the urban-rural interface. The urgency for sound decisionmaking is increasing dramatically as the world is being transformed at an unprecedented pace and in uncertain directions. Environmental changes are associated with natural hazards, greenhouse gas emissions, and increasing demands for water, land, food, energy, mineral, and living resources. At risk is the Nation’s environmental capital, the goods and services provided by resilient ecosystems that are vital to the health and wellbeing of human societies. Ecosystem science—the study of systems of organisms interacting with their environment and the consequences of natural and human-induced change on these systems—is necessary to inform decisionmakers as they develop policies to adapt to these changes. This Ecosystems Science Strategy is built on a framework that includes basic and applied science. It highlights the critical roles that U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists and partners can play in building scientific understanding and providing timely information to decisionmakers. The strategy underscores the connection between scientific discoveries and the application of new knowledge, and it integrates ecosystem science and decisionmaking, producing new scientific outcomes to assist resource managers and providing public benefits. We envision the USGS as a leader in integrating scientific information into decisionmaking processes that affect the Nation’s natural resources and human well-being. The USGS is uniquely positioned to play a pivotal role in ecosystem science. With its wide range of expertise, the Bureau can bring holistic, cross-scale, interdisciplinary capabilities to the design and conduct of monitoring, research, and modeling and to new technologies for data collection, management, and visualization. Collectively, these capabilities can be used to reveal ecological patterns and processes, explain how and why ecosystems change, and forecast change over different spatial and temporal scales. USGS science can provide managers with options and decision-support tools to use resources sustainably. The USGS has long-standing, collaborative relationships with the Department of the Interior (DOI) and other partners in the natural sciences, in both conducting science and applying the results. The USGS engages these partners in cooperative investigations that otherwise would lack the necessary support or be too expensive for a single bureau to conduct. The heart of this strategy is a framework for USGS ecosystems science that focuses on five long-term goals, which are seen as interconnected components that reinforce our vision of the USGS providing science that is at the forefront of decisionmaking: Improve understanding of ecosystem structure, function, and processes. The focus for this goal is an understanding of how ecosystems work, including the dynamics of species, their populations, interactions, and genetics, and how they change across spatial and temporal scales. Advance understanding of how drivers influence ecosystem change. The challenges here are explaining the drivers of ecosystem change, their spatio-temporal patterns, their uncertainties and interactions, and their influence on ecosystem processes and dynamics. Improve understanding of the services that ecosystems provide to society. Here the emphasis is on the measurement of environmental capital and ecosystem services, and the identification of sources and patterns of change in space and time. Develop tools, technologies, and capacities to inform decisionmaking about ecosystems. This includes developing new technologies and approaches for conducting applications-oriented ecosystem science. A principal challenge will be how to quantify uncertainty and incorporate it in decision analysis. Apply science to enhance strategies for management, conservation, and restoration of ecosystems. These challenges include development of novel approaches to monitoring, assessment, and restoration of ecosystems; new methods to address species of concern and communities at risk; and innovations in decision analysis and support to address imminent ecosystem changes or those that are underway. Closely integrated with the five goals are four strategic approaches that provide the path forward for the USGS Ecosystems Mission Area. These approaches cross-cut all of the goals and are seen as essential to the implementation of this strategy: Assess information needs for ecosystem science through enhanced partnerships. Work with the DOI and other agencies and institutions to identify, design, and implement priority decision-driven ecological research. Promote the use of interdisciplinary ecosystem science. Design and conduct interdisciplinary process-oriented research in ecosystem science. Enhance modeling and forecasting. Build models to forecast ecosystem change, assess future management scenarios, and reduce uncertainties through an adaptive learning process. Support decisionmaking. Use quantitative approaches to assess the vulnerabilities of ecosystems, habitats, and species, and evaluate strategies for adaptation, restoration, and sustainable management. Following the four strategic approaches are a set of proposed actions that represent a sampling of specific USGS activities that align with this strategy and that address the Nation’s most pressing environmental needs. The strategy emphasizes coordination of activities across the USGS mission areas pursuant to these goals. Ecosystem science is inherently interdisciplinary and requires a broad perspective that incorporates the biological and physical sciences, climate science, information technology, and scientific capacity in mission areas across the Bureau. With its emphasis on coordination, this strategy can provide a critical underpinning for integrated science efforts with scientists from multiple mission areas of the USGS working together. Of course, the USGS will continue to conduct discipline-specific and interdisciplinary investigations, and both will continue to be vital parts of the ecosystem science portfolio. Finally, the strategy stresses the importance of coordination with other Federal agencies and organizations in the natural resources community. The USGS collaborates with resource agencies in the DOI and other organizations throughout the world to meet societal needs for species and ecosystem management. Working with these agencies and organizations, the USGS will play a key role in guiding sound decisionmaking during the next decade by advancing the scientific foundation for sustaining the natural resources that diverse, productive, resilient ecosystems provide.

Circular↗

USGS2013

Status and understanding of groundwater quality in the South Coast Range-Coastal study unit, 2008: California GAMA Priority Basin Project

Groundwater quality in the South Coast Range–Coastal (SCRC) study unit was investigated from May through November 2008 as part of the Priority Basin Project of the Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Program. The study unit is located in the Southern Coast Range hydrologic province and includes parts of Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties. The GAMA Priority Basin Project is conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in collaboration with the California State Water Resources Control Board and the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. The GAMA Priority Basin Project was designed to provide a statistically unbiased, spatially distributed assessment of untreated groundwater quality within the primary aquifer system. The primary aquifer system is defined as that part of the aquifer corresponding to the perforation interval of wells listed in the California Department of Public Health (CDPH) database for the SCRC study unit. The assessments for the SCRC study unit were based on water-quality and ancillary data collected in 2008 by the USGS from 55 wells on a spatially distributed grid, and water-quality data from the CDPH database. Two types of assessments were made: (1) status, assessment of the current quality of the groundwater resource, and (2) understanding, identification of the natural and human factors affecting groundwater quality. Water-quality and ancillary data were collected from an additional 15 wells for the understanding assessment. The assessments characterize untreated groundwater quality, not the quality of treated drinking water delivered to consumers by water purveyors. The first component of this study, the status assessment of groundwater quality, used data from samples analyzed for anthropogenic constituents such as volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and pesticides, as well as naturally occurring inorganic constituents such as major ions and trace elements. Although the status assessment applies to untreated groundwater, Federal and California regulatory and non-regulatory water-quality benchmarks that apply to drinking water are used to provide context for the results. Relative-concentrations (sample concentration divided by benchmark concentration) were used for evaluating groundwater. A relative-concentration greater than (>) 1.0 indicates a concentration greater than the benchmark and is classified as high. Inorganic constituents are classified as moderate if relative-concentrations are >0.5 and less than or equal to (≤) 1.0, or low if relative-concentrations are ≤0.5. For organic constituents, the boundary between moderate and low relative-concentrations was set at 0.1. Aquifer-scale proportion was used in the status assessment as the primary metric for evaluating regional-scale groundwater quality. High aquifer-scale proportion is defined as the areal percentage of the primary aquifer system with a high relative-concentration for a particular constituent or class of constituents. Moderate and low aquifer-scale proportions were defined as the areal percentage of the primary aquifer system with moderate and low relative-concentrations, respectively. Two statistical approaches—grid-based and spatially weighted—were used to evaluate aquifer-scale proportions for individual constituents and classes of constituents. Grid-based and spatially weighted estimates were comparable for the study (within 90 percent confidence intervals). For inorganic constituents with human-health benchmarks, relative-concentrations were high for at least one constituent for 33 percent of the primary aquifer system in the SCRC study unit. Arsenic, molybdenum, and nitrate were the primary inorganic constituents with human-health benchmarks that were detected at high relative-concentrations. Inorganic constituents with aesthetic benchmarks, referred to as secondary maximum contaminant levels (SMCLs), had high relative-concentrations for 35 percent of the primary aquifer system. Iron, manganese, total dissolved solids (TDS), and sulfate were the inorganic constituents with SMCLs detected at high relative-concentrations. In contrast to inorganic constituents, organic constituents with human-health benchmarks were not detected at high relative-concentrations in the primary aquifer system in the SCRC study unit. Of the 205 organic constituents analyzed, 21 were detected—13 with human-health benchmarks. Perchloroethene (PCE) was the only VOC detected at moderate relative-concentrations. PCE, dichlorodifluoromethane (CFC-12), and chloroform were detected in more than 10 percent of the primary aquifer system. Of the two special-interest constituents, one was detected; perchlorate, which has a human-health benchmark, was detected at moderate relative-concentrations in 29 percent of the primary aquifer system and had a detection frequency of 60 percent in the SCRC study unit. The second component of this study, the understanding assessment, identified the natural and human factors that may have affected groundwater quality in the SCRC study unit by evaluating statistical correlations between water-quality constituents and potential explanatory factors. The potential explanatory factors evaluated were land use, septic tank density, well depth and depth to top-of-perforations, groundwater age, density and distance to the nearest formerly leaking underground fuel tank (LUFT), pH, and dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration. Results of the statistical evaluations were used to explain the occurrence and distribution of constituents in the study unit. DO was the primary explanatory factor influencing the concentrations of many inorganic constituents. Arsenic, iron, and manganese concentrations increased as DO concentrations decreased, consistent with patterns expected as a result of reductive dissolution of iron and (or) manganese oxides in aquifer sediments. Molybdenum concentrations increased in anoxic conditions and in oxic conditions with high pH, reflecting two mechanisms for the mobilization of molybdenum—reductive dissolution and pH-dependent desorption under oxic conditions from aquifer sediments. Nitrate concentrations decreased as DO concentrations decreased which would be consistent with degradation of nitrate under anoxic conditions (denitrification). It also is possible that nitrate concentrations decreased in relation to increasing depth and groundwater age and not as a result of denitrification. Groundwater age was another explanatory factor frequently correlated to several inorganic constituents. Iron and manganese concentrations were higher in pre-modern (water recharged before 1952) or mixed-age groundwater. This correlation is one indication that iron and manganese are from natural sources. Nitrate, TDS, and sulfate concentrations were higher in modern groundwater (water recharged since 1952) and may indicate that human activities increase concentrations of nitrate, TDS, and sulfate. Land use was a third explanatory factor frequently correlated with inorganic constituents. Nitrate, TDS, and sulfate concentrations were higher in agricultural land-use areas than in natural land-use areas, indicating that increased concentrations may be a result of agricultural practices. Organic constituents usually were detected at low relative-concentrations; therefore, statistical analyses of relations to explanatory factors usually were done for classes of constituents (for example, pesticides or solvents) as well as for selected constituents. The number of VOCs detected in a well was not correlated to any of the explanatory factors evaluated. The number of pesticide and solvent detections and PCE and CFC-12 concentrations were higher in modern groundwater than in pre-modern groundwater. PCE and CFC-12 also were positively correlated to the density of LUFTs. PCE was negatively correlated to natural land use. Chloroform concentrations were positively correlated to the density of septic systems. Perchlorate concentrations were greater in agricultural areas than in urban or natural areas. Correlation of perchlorate with DO may indicate that perchlorate biodegradation under anoxic conditions may occur. Anthropogenic sources have contributed perchlorate to groundwater in the SCRC study unit, although low levels of perchlorate may occur naturally.

California↗

USGS2012

Status and understanding of groundwater quality in the two southern San Joaquin Valley study units, 2005-2006 - California GAMA Priority Basin Project

Groundwater quality in the southern San Joaquin Valley was investigated from October 2005 through March 2006 as part of the Priority Basin Project of the Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Program. The GAMA Priority Basin Project is conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in collaboration with the California State Water Resources Control Board and the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. There are two study units located in the southern San Joaquin Valley: the Southeast San Joaquin Valley (SESJ) study unit and the Kern County Subbasin (KERN) study unit. The GAMA Priority Basin Project in the SESJ and KERN study units was designed to provide a statistically unbiased, spatially distributed assessment of untreated groundwater quality within the primary aquifers. The status assessment is based on water-quality and ancillary data collected in 2005 and 2006 by the USGS from 130 wells on a spatially distributed grid, and water-quality data from the California Department of Public Health (CDPH) database. Data was collected from an additional 19 wells for the understanding assessment. The aquifer systems (hereinafter referred to as primary aquifers) were defined as that part of the aquifer corresponding to the perforation interval of wells listed in the CDPH database for the SESJ and KERN study units. The status assessment of groundwater quality used data from samples analyzed for anthropogenic constituents such as volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and pesticides, as well as naturally occurring inorganic constituents such as major ions and trace elements. The status assessment is intended to characterize the quality of untreated groundwater resources within the primary aquifers in the SESJ and KERN study units, not the quality of drinking water delivered to consumers. Although the status assessment applies to untreated groundwater, Federal and California regulatory and non-regulatory water-quality benchmarks that apply to drinking water are used to provide context for the results. Relative-concentrations (sample concentration divided by benchmark concentration) were used for evaluating groundwater. A relative-concentration greater than 1.0 indicates a concentration greater than the benchmark and is classified as high. The relative-concentration threshold for classifying inorganic constituents as moderate or low was 0.5; for organic constituents the threshold between moderate and low was 0.1. Aquifer-scale proportion was used as the primary metric for assessing the quality of untreated groundwater for the study units. High aquifer-scale proportion is defined as the areal percentage of the primary aquifers with a high relative-concentration for a particular constituent or class of constituents. Moderate and low aquifer-scale proportions were defined as the areal percentage of the primary aquifers with moderate and low relative-concentrations, respectively. Two statistical approaches—grid-based and spatially weighted—were used to evaluate aquifer-scale proportions for individual constituents and classes of constituents. Grid-based and spatially weighted estimates were comparable for the two study units in the southern San Joaquin Valley (within 90 percent confidence intervals). The status assessment showed that inorganic constituents were more prevalent than organic constituents and that relative-concentrations were higher for inorganic constituents than for organic constituents. For inorganic constituents with human-health benchmarks, the relative-concentration of at least one constituent in the SESJ study unit was high in 30 percent of the primary aquifers. In the KERN study unit, the relative-concentration of at least one constituent was high in 23 percent of the primary aquifers. In the SESJ and KERN study units, the inorganic constituents with human-health benchmarks detected at high relative-concentrations in more than 2 percent of the primary aquifers were arsenic, boron, vanadium, nitrate, uranium, and gross alpha radioactivity. Additional constituents with human-health benchmarks—antimony, radium, and fluoride—were detected at high relative-concentrations in the KERN study unit. For inorganic constituents with aesthetic benchmarks (secondary maximum contaminant levels, SMCLs), the relative-concentration of at least one constituent in the SESJ study unit was high in 6.6 percent of the primary aquifers. In the KERN study unit, the relative-concentration of at least one constituent was high in 22 percent of the primary aquifers. Inorganic constituents with aesthetic benchmarks detected at high relative-concentrations in the primary aquifers in the SESJ and KERN study units were iron and manganese. Additional constituents with aesthetic benchmarks—total dissolved solids (TDS), sulfate, and chloride—were detected at high relative-concentrations in the KERN study unit. In contrast, the status assessment for organic constituents with human-health benchmarks showed that relative-concentrations were high in 4.8 percent and 2.1 percent of the primary aquifers in the SESJ and KERN study units, respectively. The special-interest constituent, perchlorate, was detected at high relative-concentrations in 1.2 percent of the primary aquifers in the SESJ study unit. Twenty-eight of the 78 VOCs (not including fumigants) analyzed were detected. Of these 28 VOCs, benzene had high relative-concentrations in the SESJ study unit, and relative-concentrations for the other 27 VOCs were moderate and low. Five of the 10 fumigants were detected; 1,2-dibromo-3-chloropropane (DBCP) was the only fumigant with high relative-concentrations in the SESJ and KERN study units. Of the 136 pesticides and pesticide degradates analyzed, 33 were detected. Human-health benchmarks were established for eighteen of the detected pesticides. Dieldrin was detected at moderate relative-concentrations in the SESJ and KERN study units. All other pesticides detected with human-health benchmarks were present at low relative-concentrations. The detection frequencies for two of these pesticides—simazine and atrazine—were greater than or equal to 10 percent in the SESJ and KERN study units. The understanding assessment of groundwater quality included an analysis of correlations of selected water-quality constituents or classes of constituents with potential explanatory factors. The understanding assessment indicated that the concentrations of many trace elements and major ions were correlated to well depth, groundwater age, and/or geochemical conditions. Many trace elements were positively correlated with depth. Arsenic, boron, vanadium, fluoride, manganese, and iron concentrations increased with well depth or depth to top-of-perforations. The concentrations for these trace elements also were higher in older (pre-modern) groundwater. In contrast, uranium concentrations decreased with increasing depth and groundwater age. Most trace elements were correlated to geochemical conditions. Arsenic, antimony, boron, fluoride, manganese, and iron concentrations generally were higher wherever the pH of the groundwater was greater than 7.6. Concentrations for these constituents generally were higher at low concentrations of dissolved oxygen (DO). Uranium was the exception; uranium concentrations generally were lower at high pH and at high concentrations of DO. Nitrate concentrations generally were lower in deeper wells. Nitrate concentrations also were higher in groundwater with higher DO. Total dissolved solids, sulfate, and chloride concentrations were higher in the KERN study unit than in the SESJ study unit. Total dissolved solids were negatively correlated with pH in the KERN study unit. Total dissolved solids and sulfate were higher in areas with more agricultural land use. Chloride concentrations increased with depth to top-of-perforations in the KERN study unit. Organic constituents and constituents of special interest, like many inorganic constituents, were correlated with well depth, groundwater age, and DO. Unlike most trace elements, however, solvent and pesticide detections, and total trihalomethanes (THM), DBCP, and perchlorate concentrations decreased with increasing well depth. Volatile organic compound, solvent, and pesticide detections, and THM concentrations also were lower in older (pre-modern) groundwater than in modern-age groundwater. Solvent detections and total THM, DBCP, and perchlorate concentrations increased with increasing DO concentrations.

California↗

USGS2018

Water-quality conditions with an emphasis on cyanobacteria and associated toxins and taste-and-odor compounds in the Kansas River, Kansas, July 2012 through September 2016

Cyanobacteria cause a multitude of water-quality concerns, including the potential to produce toxins and taste-and-odor compounds that may cause substantial economic and public health concerns, and are of particular interest in lakes, reservoirs, and rivers that are used for drinking-water supply. Extensive cyanobacterial blooms typically do not develop in the Kansas River; however, reservoirs in the lower Kansas River Basin occasionally develop blooms that may affect downstream water quality. During July 2012 through September 2016, continuous and (or) discrete water-quality data were collected at several sites (Wamego, De Soto, and three main reservoir-fed tributaries) on the Kansas River to characterize the sources, frequency and magnitude of occurrence, and causes of cyanobacteria, cyanobacterial toxins, and taste-and-odor compounds and to develop a real-time notification system of changing water-quality conditions that may affect drinking-water treatment. Algal biomass, as estimated by chlorophyll, was consistently higher at the downstream De Soto site than the upstream Wamego site. Higher algal biomass at the De Soto site likely was caused by algal growth during downstream transport without major losses due to grazing by aquatic organisms or other processes. Algal biomass at the Wamego and De Soto sites was negatively correlated with streamflow and total and bioavailable nutrient concentrations. The negative association between algal biomass and nutrients in the Kansas River likely reflects the relatively strong positive association between nutrient concentrations and streamflows. Cyanobacteria were relatively common in the Kansas River but rarely dominated the algal community. Like overall algal biomass, cyanobacterial abundances typically were higher at the De Soto site than the Wamego site. Cyanobacterial abundances generally peaked in late summer or early fall (July through October), with smaller peaks occasionally observed in spring (April through May). Cyanobacteria in the Kansas River rarely exceeded 20,000 cells per milliliter, the abundance at which cyanobacteria may become a concern for drinking-water treatment. Relations between cyanobacterial abundance and streamflow, turbidity, and nutrients in the Kansas River were similar to those between chlorophyll and total phytoplankton abundance, indicating the same processes that influence overall algal biomass and dynamics also are influencing cyanobacteria. The cyanotoxin microcystin was detected in about 27 percent of the samples collected from Kansas River tributary and main-stem sites. Cylindrospermopsin was detected in one sample from the De Soto site. Microcystin occurrence and concentration were similar between the Wamego and De Soto sites. Concentrations exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency health advisory guidance values for finished drinking water of 0.3 (for bottle-fed infants and pre-school children) and 1.6 micrograms per liter (μg/L; for school-age children and adults) in 6 percent or less of samples collected. These guidance values are for finished drinking water and are not directly applicable to observed environmental concentrations but do provide a benchmark for comparison. Microcystin was detected most often and had the highest concentrations during summer. Though seasonal patterns in microcystin occurrence were generally consistent, seasonal maxima varied by an order of magnitude across years. The taste-and-odor compounds geosmin and 2-methylisoborneol (MIB) were detected in about 78 and 43 percent of samples, respectively, collected across all sites (main stem and tributaries). Geosmin and MIB occurrence and concentration varied considerably between the Wamego and De Soto sites. Geosmin was detected in about 67 percent of Wamego samples and 81 percent of De Soto samples. The human detection threshold of 5 nanograms per liter (ng/L) was exceeded for geosmin in about 11 and 17 percent of the samples collected at the Wamego and De Soto sites, respectively. Geosmin was detected during all months of the year at both sites, and there were no clear seasonal patterns. MIB was detected less frequently in the Kansas River than geosmin and was observed in about 42 percent of Wamego samples and 33 percent of De Soto samples. Concentrations exceeded 5 ng/L in about 7 and 5 percent of samples from the Wamego and De Soto sites, respectively. As observed for geosmin, there were no clear seasonal patterns in MIB occurrence or concentration. There seems to be a connection between microcystin detections in the Kansas River and occurrence of microcystin in upstream reservoirs (and tributary streams). Microcystin concentrations greater than 0.3 μg/L may be likely during the summer when streamflow is less than 3,000 cubic feet per second (ft 3 /s) and contributions from Milford Lake exceed about 30 percent of total flow in the Kansas River. Observed microcystin concentrations typically were higher at the De Soto site than the Wamego or tributary sites during 2012 through 2016, indicating cyanobacteria may continue to grow and produce microcystin once introduced to the Kansas River. The spatial and temporal patterns in geosmin and MIB occurrence and concentration were more complex than microcystin. There were no clear connections between geosmin and MIB occurrence in the Kansas River and potential upstream reservoir (or tributary stream) sources. Likewise, there was not a clear relation between algal biomass, cyanobacteria, or actinomycetes bacteria and taste-and-odor events in the Kansas River. Geosmin and MIB were not strongly correlated with any measured environmental variable at either Kansas River site. Continuous water-quality data may be used independently or in combination with regression models to provide information on changing water-quality conditions that may affect drinking-water treatment processes or recreational activities on the Kansas River. For example, logistic regression model outputs and continuous water-quality data may both be indicative of the potential for microcystin events. Logistic regression models that are estimating a high probability of microcystin occurrence at concentrations above 0.1 μg/L can be used as one indicator. Streamflows less than 3,000 ft 3 /s during upstream reservoir releases during periods with low turbidity and increased chlorophyll fluorescence, specific conductance, and pH values may also be indicative of microcystin events. Advanced or near-real-time notification may inform proactive, rather than reactive, management strategies when water-quality conditions are changing rapidly or are likely to cause cyanobacteria-related events.

Kansas↗

USGS2011

Hydrogeologic setting and simulation of groundwater flow near the Canterbury and Leadville Mine Drainage Tunnels, Leadville, Colorado

The Leadville mining district is historically one of the most heavily mined regions in the world producing large quantities of gold, silver, lead, zinc, copper, and manganese since the 1860s. A multidisciplinary investigation was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment, to characterize large-scale groundwater flow in a 13 square-kilometer region encompassing the Canterbury Tunnel and the Leadville Mine Drainage Tunnel near Leadville, Colorado. The primary objective of the investigation was to evaluate whether a substantial hydraulic connection is present between the Canterbury Tunnel and Leadville Mine Drainage Tunnel for current (2008) hydrologic conditions. Altitude in the Leadville area ranges from about 3,018 m (9,900 ft) along the Arkansas River valley to about 4,270 m (14,000 ft) along the Continental Divide east of Leadville, and the high altitude of the area results in a moderate subpolar climate. Winter precipitation as snow was about three times greater than summer precipitation as rain, and in general, both winter and summer precipitation were greatest at higher altitudes. Winter and summer precipitation have increased since 2002 coinciding with the observed water-level rise near the Leadville Mine Drainage Tunnel that began in 2003. The weather patterns and hydrology exhibit strong seasonality with an annual cycle of cold winters with large snowfall, followed by spring snowmelt, runoff, and recharge (high-flow) conditions, and then base-flow (low-flow) conditions in the fall prior to the next winter. Groundwater occurs in the Paleozoic and Precambrian fractured-rock aquifers and in a Quaternary alluvial aquifer along the East Fork Arkansas River, and groundwater levels also exhibit seasonal, although delayed, patterns in response to the annual hydrologic cycle. A three-dimensional digital representation of the extensively faulted bedrock was developed and a geophysical direct-current resistivity field survey was performed to evaluate the geologic structure of the study area. The results show that the Canterbury Tunnel is located in a downthrown structural block that is not in direct physical connection with the Leadville Mine Drainage Tunnel. The presence of this structural discontinuity implies there is no direct groundwater pathway between the tunnels along a laterally continuous bedrock unit. Water-quality results for pH and major-ion concentrations near the Canterbury Tunnel showed that acid mine drainage has not affected groundwater quality. Stable-isotope ratios of hydrogen and oxygen in water indicate that snowmelt is the primary source of groundwater recharge. On the basis of chlorofluorocarbon and tritium concentrations and mixing ratios for groundwater samples, young groundwater (groundwater recharged after 1953) was indicated at well locations upgradient from and in a fault block separate from the Canterbury Tunnel. Samples from sites downgradient from the Canterbury Tunnel were mixtures of young and old (pre-1953) groundwater and likely represent snowmelt recharge mixed with older regional groundwater that discharges from the bedrock units to the Arkansas River valley. Discharge from the Canterbury Tunnel contained the greatest percentage of old (pre-1953) groundwater with a mixture of about 25 percent young water and about 75 percent old water. A calibrated three-dimensional groundwater model representing high-flow conditions was used to evaluate large-scale flow characteristics of the groundwater and to assess whether a substantial hydraulic connection was present between the Canterbury Tunnel and Leadville Mine Drainage Tunnel. As simulated, the faults restrict local flow in many areas, but the fracture-damage zones adjacent to the faults allow groundwater to move along faults. Water-budget results indicate that groundwater flow across the lateral edges of the model controlled the majority of flow in and out of the aquifer (79 percent and 63 percent of the total water budget, respectively). The largest contributions to the water budget were groundwater entering from the upper reaches of the watershed and the hydrologic interaction of the groundwater with the East Fork Arkansas River. Potentiometric surface maps of the simulated model results were generated for depths of 50, 100, and 250 m. The surfaces revealed a positive trend in hydraulic head with land-surface altitude and evidence of increased control on fluid movement by the fault network structure at progressively greater depths in the aquifer. Results of advective particle-tracking simulations indicate that the sets of simulated flow paths for the Canterbury Tunnel and the Leadville Mine Drainage Tunnel were mutually exclusive of one another, which also suggested that no major hydraulic connection was present between the tunnels. Particle-tracking simulations also revealed that although the fault network generally restricted groundwater movement locally, hydrologic conditions were such that groundwater did cross the fault network at many locations. This cross-fault movement indicates that the fault network controls regional groundwater flow to some degree but is not a complete barrier to flow. The cumulative distributions of adjusted age results for the watershed indicate that approximately 30 percent of the flow pathways transmit groundwater that was younger than 68 years old (post-1941) and that about 70 percent of the flow pathways transmit old groundwater. The particle-tracking results are consistent with the apparent ages and mixing ratios developed from the chlorofluorocarbon and tritium results. The model simulations also indicate that approximately 50 percent of the groundwater flowing through the study area was less than 200 years old and about 50 percent of the groundwater flowing through the study area is old water stored in low-permeability geologic units and fault blocks. As a final examination of model response, the conductance parameters of the Canterbury Tunnel and Leadville Mine Drainage Tunnel were manually adjusted from the calibrated values to determine if altering the flow discharge in one tunnel affects the hydraulic behavior in the other tunnel. The examination showed no substantial hydraulic connection. The multidisciplinary investigation yielded an improved understanding of groundwater characteristics near the Canterbury Tunnel and the Leadville Mine Drainage Tunnel. Movement of groundwater between the Canterbury Tunnel and Leadville Mine Drainage Tunnel that was central to this investigation could not be evaluated with strong certainty owing to the structural complexity of the region, study simplifications, and the absence of observation data within the upper sections of the Canterbury Tunnel and between the Canterbury Tunnel and the Leadville Mine Drainage Tunnel. There was, however, collaborative agreement between all of the analyses performed during this investigation that a substantial hydraulic connection did not exist between the Canterbury Tunnel and the Leadville Mine Drainage Tunnel under natural flow conditions near the time of this investigation.

Colorado↗

USGS2010

Status and understanding of groundwater quality in the central-eastside San Joaquin Basin, 2006: California GAMA Priority Basin Project

Groundwater quality in the approximately 1,695-square-mile Central Eastside San Joaquin Basin (Central Eastside) study unit was investigated as part of the Priority Basin Project (PBP) of the Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Program. The GAMA PBP was developed in response to the California Groundwater Quality Monitoring Act of 2001, and is being conducted by the California State Water Resources Control Board in collaboration with the U.S. Geological Survey and the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. The GAMA Central Eastside study unit was designed to provide a spatially unbiased assessment of untreated-groundwater quality, as well as a statistically consistent basis for comparing water quality throughout California. During March through June 2006, samples were collected from 78 wells in Stanislaus and Merced Counties, 58 of which were selected using a spatially distributed, randomized grid-based method to provide statistical representation of the study unit (grid wells), and 20 of which were sampled to evaluate changes in water chemistry along groundwater-flow paths (understanding wells). Water-quality data from the California Department of Public Health (CDPH) database also were used for the assessment. An assessment of the current status of the groundwater quality included collecting samples from wells for analysis of anthropogenic constituents such as volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and pesticides, as well as naturally occurring constituents such as major ions and trace elements. The assessment of status is intended to characterize the quality of untreated-groundwater resources within the primary aquifer system, not the treated drinking water delivered to consumers by water purveyors. The primary aquifer system (hereinafter, primary aquifer) is defined as that part of the aquifer corresponding to the perforation interval of wells listed in the CDPH database for the Central Eastside study unit. The quality of groundwater in shallower or deeper water-bearing zones may differ from that in the primary aquifer; shallower groundwater may be more vulnerable to surficial contamination. The primary aquifer is represented by the grid wells, of which 90 percent had depths to the tops of their perforations of about 80 to 330 feet and depths to bottom of about 100 to 670 feet. Relative-concentrations (sample concentration divided by benchmark concentration) were used as the primary metric for assessing the status of water quality for those constituents that have Federal and (or) California human health or aesthetic benchmarks. A relative-concentration greater than (>) 1.0 indicates a concentration above a benchmark, and less than or equal to (≤) 1.0 indicates a concentration equal to or below a benchmark. For organic and special interest constituents, relative-concentrations were classified as high (>1.0), moderate (≤1.0 and >0.1), or low (≤0.1). For inorganic constituents, relative-concentrations were classified as high (>1.0), moderate (≤1.0 and >0.5), or low (≤0.5). The threshold between low and moderate classifications was lower for organic and special interest constituents than for inorganic constituents because organic constituents generally are less prevalent and have smaller relative-concentrations than inorganic constituents. Grid-based and spatially-weighted approaches, the latter incorporating data from all CDPH wells, were used to evaluate the proportion of the primary aquifer (aquifer-scale proportions) with high, moderate, or low relative-concentrations. For individual constituents or classes of constituents, the aquifer-scale high proportion is the percentage of the area of the study unit having high relative-concentrations within the depth-zones of the primary aquifer. Aquifer-scale moderate and low proportions are defined similarly. Spatially-weighted aquifer-scale high proportions nearly always fell within the 90-percent confidence interval of grid-based aquifer-scale high proportions, indicating that the grid-based approach yielded statistically equivalent results to the spatially-weighted approach incorporating CDPH data. The status assessment for inorganic constituents showed that inorganic constituents (one or more) were high, relative to human-health benchmarks, in 18.0 percent of the primary aquifer, moderate in 44.0 percent, and low in 38.0 percent. Of inorganic constituents with human-health benchmarks, arsenic, vanadium, and nitrate were detected at high relative-concentrations in 15.6 percent, 3.6 percent, and 2.1 percent, respectively, of the primary aquifer. Of inorganic constituents with secondary maximum contaminant levels (SMCL), manganese, iron, and TDS were detected at high relative-concentrations in 4.5 percent, 2.2 percent, and 1.7 percent, respectively, of the primary aquifer. The status assessment for organic constituents showed that organic constituents (one or more) were high, relative to human-health benchmarks, in a smaller proportion of the primary aquifer (1.2 percent) than inorganic constituents (18.0 percent). Organic constituents had moderate relative-concentrations in 14.3 percent, and had low relative-concentrations or were not detected in 84.5 percent, of the primary aquifer. The proportion of the primary aquifer with high relative-concentrations of organic constituents reflected high proportions of the discontinued soil fumigant 1,2-dibromo-3-chlororopane (DBCP; 1.0 percent) and the solvent tetrachloroethene (PCE; 0.2 percent). Most of the organic and special interest constituents detected in groundwater in the Central Eastside study unit have human-health benchmarks. Of the 205 organic and special interest constituents analyzed for, 36 constituents were detected. Of these constituents, 32 were detected only at low relative-concentrations. Four constituents, chloroform, carbon tetrachloride, DBCP, and perchlorate, were detected at moderate relative-concentrations in grid wells. Nine organic and special-interest constituents were detected frequently (detected in greater than 10 percent of samples): the trihalomethanes chloroform, bromoform, bromodichloromethane, and dibromochloromethane; the solvent PCE; the herbicides atrazine, simazine, and metolachlor, and special-interest constituent perchlorate. An assessment of understanding of the groundwater quality included sampling of understanding wells, some of which were perforated in shallower or deeper portions of the aquifer system than the primary aquifer, and analysis of correlations of groundwater quality with land use, depth, age classification, and other potential explanatory factors. The understanding assessment indicated that the concentrations of many constituents were related to depth and groundwater age. However, concentrations of individual constituents or constituent classes also were sometimes related to geochemical conditions, lateral position in the flow system, or land use. High and moderate relative-concentrations of uranium, nitrate, and total dissolved solids (TDS) were detected in some wells where the tops of perforations are within the upper 200 feet of the aquifer system. In wells with the depth to the top of perforations below this depth, concentrations were low. A similar pattern occurred for the sum of herbicide concentrations. These vertical water-chemistry patterns are consistent with the hydrogeologic setting, in which return flows from agricultural and urban land use are the major source of recharge, and withdrawals for irrigation and urban supply are the major source of discharge, resulting in substantial vertical components of groundwater flow. The decrease in concentrations of many constituents with depth reflects in part that groundwater gets older with depth. Tritium, helium-isotopes, and carbon-14 data were used to classify the predominant age of groundwater samples into three categories: modern (water that has entered the aquifer in the last 50 years), pre-modern (water that entered the aquifer more than 50 years, up to tens of thousands of years, ago), and mixed (mixtures of waters with modern and pre-modern ages). Uranium, nitrate, and herbicide concentrations were significantly higher in groundwater having modern- and mixed-ages than pre-modern ages, indicating that these constituents may be affected by anthropogenic activities in the last 50 years. Other patterns in the distribution of nitrate, uranium, and TDS are evident. Isotopic and geochemical data are consistent with partial denitrification of nitrate in some reducing groundwaters in the western and deeper parts of the flow system. Uranium and TDS concentrations increase from east to west across the valley, along the direction of regional lateral groundwater flow. High and moderate relative-concentrations of arsenic can be attributed to reductive dissolution of manganese or iron oxides, or to desorption by high pH waters. Arsenic concentrations also increased with increasing depth and groundwater age. High to moderate relative-concentrations of vanadium primarily are related to high pH under oxic conditions. The frequency of detections of DBCP was greater in areas with orchard-vineyard land use >40 percent and at depths <200 feet. THMs and solvents were correlated positively with percent urban land use. Herbicide concentrations were correlated negatively with percent natural land use. Perchlorate concentrations were significantly greater in waters having modern and mixed ages than waters having pre-modern ages and were significantly and positively correlated with two land uses—percent orchard/vineyard land use and percent urban land use.

California↗

USGS2023

Arsenic, chromium, uranium, and vanadium in rock, alluvium, and groundwater, Mojave River and Morongo Areas, western Mojave Desert, southern California

Trace elements within groundwater that originate from aquifer materials and pose potential public-health hazards if consumed are known as geogenic contaminants. The geogenic contaminants arsenic, chromium, and vanadium can form negatively charged ions with oxygen known as oxyanions. Uranium complexes with bicarbonate and carbonate to form negatively charged ions having aqueous chemistry similar to oxyanions. The concentrations of arsenic, chromium, uranium, and vanadium in groundwater result from the combined effects of (1) geologic abundance within aquifer materials; (2) the fraction of these elements that have weathered from and sorbed to the surfaces of mineral grains and are potentially available to groundwater; and (3) the aqueous chemistry of dissolved oxyanions in groundwater during different redox conditions and pH, both of which are affected by hydrogeology, including the length of time groundwater has been in contact with aquifer materials. Concentrations of arsenic, chromium, uranium, and vanadium were measured in samples of (1) rock, surficial alluvium, and drill cuttings using portable (handheld) X-ray fluorescence (pXRF); (2) operationally defined fractions extractable from these materials; and (3) water from wells sampled between 2000 and 2018 within the 3,500 square mile Mojave River area and Morongo area of the western Mojave Desert, southern California. Regionally, rock and surficial alluvium in the Mojave River and Morongo areas are high in arsenic, low in chromium and uranium, and near the average bulk continental crust concentration for vanadium. Locally, high chromium concentrations are present in mafic rock within the San Gabriel Mountains; high uranium concentrations are present in felsic rock within the San Bernardino Mountains; and high arsenic, uranium, and vanadium concentrations are present in extrusive (volcanic) felsic rock within uplands surrounding groundwater basins along the Mojave River downstream from Barstow, California. Elemental assemblages identified using principal component analyses (PCA) of pXRF data were used to characterize felsic, mafic, and felsic volcanic source terranes in rock, surficial alluvium, and in geologic material penetrated by selected monitoring wells drilled between 1994 and 2018. Highly felsic alluvium associated with recent deposition from the Mojave River was identified along the 90-mile length of the floodplain aquifer along the river. The thickness of these highly felsic alluvial deposits ranged from 200 feet (ft) near Victorville and near Barstow to a thin veneer about 30 ft thick downstream from Victorville and downstream portions of the floodplain aquifer within the Mojave Valley. Groundwater in the Mojave River and Morongo areas was generally oxic and alkaline (pH≥7.5). Maximum concentrations of arsenic, hexavalent chromium [Cr(VI)], uranium, and vanadium in water from as many as 498 wells sampled between 2000 and 2018 were 360, 140, 1,470, and 690 micrograms per liter (μg/L), respectively. Water from 22 percent of sampled wells exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) maximum contaminant level (MCL) for arsenic of 10 μg/L, with arsenic concentrations commonly exceeding the MCL in water from wells east of Barstow, deep wells in the Victorville fan, and in suboxic or reduced groundwater within the floodplain aquifer. Water from about 1 percent of sampled wells had Cr(VI) concentrations greater than the California MCL for total chromium of 50 μg/L, whereas 13 percent of sampled wells had Cr(VI) concentrations greater than the former California MCL of 10 μg/L. Hexavalent chromium concentrations were highest in water from wells in the Sheep Creek alluvial fan, eroded from mafic rock in the San Gabriel Mountains, although Cr(VI) concentrations greater than the former California MCL also were present elsewhere in the study area where mafic materials or older groundwater were present. Water from about 9 percent of sampled wells exceeded the EPA MCL for uranium of 30 μg/L, with concentrations exceeding the MCL commonly associated with irrigation return from agricultural land overlying the floodplain aquifer. Water from about 7 percent of sampled wells had vanadium concentrations greater than the California notification level of 50 μg/L; most of these wells were in the Victorville fan within the Mojave River area. In general, arsenic concentrations were higher in suboxic or reduced water; chromium concentrations were higher in oxic, alkaline (pH≥7.5) water; uranium concentrations were higher in circumneutral to slightly alkaline water (pH≤7.4); and vanadium concentrations were higher in highly alkaline (pH≥8.0) water, independent of redox status. Concentrations within geologic source terranes are not the sole factor controlling the concentrations of geogenic elements in groundwater. Differences in mineral weathering, pH-dependent sorption to surface-exchange sites on mineral grains, and aqueous geochemistry (especially redox status and pH) affect geogenic element concentrations in groundwater. Consequently, the relative abundances of arsenic, Cr(VI), uranium, and vanadium in groundwater differ from their relative abundances in the average bulk continental crust and their regional abundances in rock and surficial alluvium within groundwater basins of the western Mojave Desert. Processes that control the concentrations of arsenic, chromium, uranium, and vanadium in groundwater operate at the mineral-grain and aquifer scale. At the mineral-grain scale, sequential chemical extraction data show arsenic and uranium are more available to groundwater (under specific geochemical conditions) than chromium or vanadium, which largely are unavailable within unweathered mineral grains. Additionally, chromium and vanadium form few aqueous complexes and bind tightly with iron minerals within surface coatings on mineral grains making them less available to groundwater, whereas complexation with other dissolved ions enhances the solubility of uranium and, to a lesser extent, arsenic. Complexation also increases the valence (less negative charge) and increases the size of dissolved oxyanions and uranium complexes with bicarbonate and carbonate making them less readily sorbed to aquifer materials. At the aquifer scale, hydrogeology (including isolation of water in aquifers from surface sources of recharge, older groundwater age, and long contact times between groundwater and aquifer materials) combined with geochemical processes (such as silicate weathering) to produce alkaline groundwater. Desorption from sorption sites on the surfaces of mineral grains with increasing pH increases arsenic, chromium, and vanadium concentrations in water from wells and increases Cr(VI) concentrations as long as water remains oxic. Aqueous geochemistry and concentrations of geogenic contaminants also are affected by anthropogenic activities including (1) discharge of treated municipal wastewater, which may change the redox status of groundwater; (2) return from irrigated agriculture, which may alter the chemistry of groundwater and increase the solubility of trace elements such as uranium; and (3) groundwater pumping and subsequent water-level declines, which may change the source of water yielded by wells. The quality of water imported from northern California and infiltrated from ponds for groundwater recharge may be altered by naturally present trace elements, especially uranium in areas of agricultural land use or chromium within mafic alluvium.

California↗

USGS2015

Areas contributing recharge to production wells and effects of climate change on the groundwater system in the Chipuxet River and Chickasheen Brook Basins, Rhode Island

The Chipuxet River and Chickasheen Brook Basins in southern Rhode Island are an important water resource for public and domestic supply, irrigation, recreation, and aquatic habitat. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Rhode Island Department of Health, began a study in 2012 as part of an effort to protect the source of water to six large-capacity production wells that supply drinking water and to increase understanding of how climate change might affect the water resources in the basins. Soil-water-balance and groundwater-flow models were developed to delineate the areas contributing recharge to the wells and to quantify the hydrologic response to climate change. Surficial deposits of glacial origin ranging from a few feet to more than 200 feet thick overlie bedrock in the 24.4-square mile study area. These deposits comprise a complex and productive aquifer system. Simulated areas contributing recharge to the production wells covered a total area of 0.63 square miles for average well withdrawal rates from 2007 through 2011 (total rate of 583 gallons per minute). Simulated areas contributing recharge for the maximum well pumping capacities (total rate of 3,700 gallons per minute) covered a total area of 2.55 square miles. Most simulated areas contributing recharge extend upgradient of the wells to morainal and upland till deposits and to groundwater divides. Some simulated areas contributing recharge include small, isolated areas remote from the wells. Relatively short groundwater traveltimes from recharging locations to discharging wells indicated that the wells are vulnerable to contamination from land-surface activities; median traveltimes ranged from 3.5 to 8.6 years for the production wells examined, and 57 to 91 percent of the traveltimes were 10 years or less. Land cover in the areas contributing recharge includes a substantial amount of urban and agriculture land use for five wells adjacent to the Chipuxet River; for one well adjacent to a tributary stream, land use is less developed. The calibrated groundwater-flow model provided a single, best representation of the areas contributing recharge to a production well. The parameter variance-covariance matrix from model calibration was used to create parameter sets that reflect the uncertainty of the parameter estimates and the correlation among parameters to evaluate the uncertainty associated with the predicted contributing areas to the wells. A Monte Carlo analysis led to contributing areas expressed as a probability distribution that differed from a single deterministic contributing area. Because of the effects of parameter uncertainty, the size of the probabilistic contributing areas for both average and maximum pumping rates was larger than the size of the deterministic contributing areas for the wells. Thus, some areas not in the deterministic contributing area might actually be in the contributing area, including additional areas of urban and agricultural land use that has the potential to contaminate groundwater. Additional areas that might be in the contributing area included recharge originating near the pumping wells that have relatively short groundwater-flow paths and traveltimes. At the maximum pumping rates, areas associated with low probabilities extended long distances along groundwater divides in the uplands remote from the wells. Climate projections for the Chipuxet River and Chickasheen Brook Basins from downscaled output from general circulation models indicate that mean annual temperature might increase by 4.7 degrees Fahrenheit and 8.0 degrees Fahrenheit by the late 21st century (2070–99) compared with the late 20th century (1970–99) under scenarios of lower and higher emissions of greenhouse gases, respectively. By the late 21st century, winter and spring precipitation is projected to increase by 12 to 17 percent, summer precipitation to increase by about the same as mean annual precipitation (8 percent), and fall precipitation to decrease by 5 percent for both emission scenarios compared with the late 20th century. Soil-water-balance simulations indicate that, although precipitation is expected to increase in three seasons, only in winter do precipitation increases exceed actual evapotranspiration increases. Recharge is projected to decrease in fall and generally change little in spring and summer. By the late 21st century, winter recharge is expected to increase by 13 percent for the lower emissions scenario and by 15 percent for the higher emissions scenario. In fall, recharge is projected to diminish by 13 percent for the lower emissions scenario and by 24 percent for the higher emissions scenario. Although recharge is projected to change seasonally in the 21st century, mean annual recharge changes minimally. Soil moisture is projected to decrease in the 21st century from spring through fall because of increases in potential evapotranspiration, and in fall because of decreases in precipitation in addition to increases in potential evapotranspiration. By the late 21st century, soil moisture for the lower emissions scenario is expected to decrease by 11 percent in summer and 15 percent in fall, and for the higher emissions scenario, decrease by 23 percent for both seasons. These decreases in soil moisture during the growing season might have implications for agriculture in the study area. Predicted changes in the magnitude and seasonal distribution of recharge in the 21st century increase simulated base flows and groundwater levels in the winter months for both emission scenarios, but because of less recharge in the fall and less or about the same recharge in the preceding months of spring and summer, base flows and groundwater levels in the fall months decrease for both emission scenarios. October has the largest base flow and groundwater level decreases. By the late 21st century, base flows at the Chipuxet River in October are projected to decrease by 9 percent for the lower emissions scenario and 18 percent for the higher emissions scenario. For a headwater stream in the upland till with shorter groundwater-flow paths and lower storage properties in its drainage area, base flows in October are projected to diminish by 28 percent and 42 percent for the lower and higher emissions scenarios by the late 21st century. Groundwater level changes in the uplands show substantial decreases in fall, but because of the large storage capacity of stratified deposits, water levels change minimally in the valley. By the late 21st century, water levels in large areas of upland till deposits in October are projected to decrease by up to 2 feet for the lower emissions scenario, whereas large areas decrease by up to 5 feet, with small areas with decreases of as much as 10 feet, for the higher emissions scenario. For both emission scenarios, additional areas of till go dry in fall compared with the late 20th century. Thus projected changes in recharge in the 21st century might extend low flows and low water levels for the year later in fall and there might be more intermittent headwater streams compared with the late 20th century with corresponding implications to aquatic habitat. Finally, the size and location of the simulated areas contributing recharge to the production wells are minimally affected by climate change because mean annual recharge, which is used to determine the contributing areas to the production wells, is projected to change little in the 21st century.

Rhode Island↗