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USGS2016

The 2014-2015 Pāhoa lava flow crisis at Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai‘i: Disaster avoided and lessons learned

Lava flow crises are nothing new on the Island of Hawai‘i, where their destructive force has been demonstrated repeatedly over the past several hundred years. The 2014–2015 Pāhoa lava flow crisis, however, was unique in terms of its societal impact and volcanological characteristics. Despite low effusion rates, a long-lived lava flow whose extent reached 20 km (the longest at Kīlauea Volcano in the past several hundred years) was poised for months to impact thousands of people, although direct impacts were ultimately minor (thus far). Careful observation of the flow reaffirmed and expanded knowledge of the processes associated with pāhoehoe emplacement, including the direct correlation between summit pressurization and flow advance, the influence of existing geologic structures on flow pathways, and the possible relationship between effusion rate and flow length. Communicating uncertainty associated with lava flow hazards was a challenge throughout the crisis, but online distribution of information and direct contact with residents proved to be effective strategies for keeping the public informed and educated about flow progress and how lava flows work (including forecasting limitations). Volcanological and sociological lessons will be important for inevitable future lava flow crises in Hawai‘i and, potentially, elsewhere in the world.

Hawaii↗

USGS2020

Envisioning a multi-agency and multi-academic institution geomorphology data exchange portal

Access to bathymetry and geomorphology data for rivers and reservoirs is a critical need in multiple agencies and academia. These data are needed to make water-resource-management decisions regarding river restoration, resource protection, infrastructure design and sustainability, and flood-risk reduction, and during natural disasters. Sharing of data increases decision-making capacity by incorporating information from entire watersheds, provides knowledge from similar settings being managed or studied by other entities, and helps meet the goals of the Federal Open Water Data Initiative. Addressing these needs across broad spatial and temporal scales would be made more efficient if these data were available in consistent formats with standardized metadata and were either stored in a centralized database or integrated with existing geospatial datasets. Because of renewed interest and technological advances, representatives from multiple Federal agencies and academic institutions have created a new working group to scope the development of a Geomorphology Data Exchange Portal to increase access to needed data. The working group has developed a vision for the Portal and outlined possible approaches to achieve the vision. Short-term approaches may include leveraging existing data-access portals and data-processing tools and integrating geomorphology data with existing national geospatial datasets.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2013

Managing the effects of endocrine disrupting chemicals in wastewater-impacted streams

A revolution in analytical instrumentation circa 1920 greatly improved the ability to characterize chemical substances. This analytical foundation resulted in an unprecedented explosion in the design and production of synthetic chemicals during and post-World War II. What is now often referred to as the 2nd Chemical Revolution has provided substantial societal benefits; with modern chemical design and manufacturing supporting dramatic advances in medicine, increased food production, and expanding gross domestic products at the national and global scales as well as improved health, longevity, and lifestyle convenience at the individual scale. Presently, the chemical industry is the largest manufacturing sector in the United States (U.S.) and the second largest in Europe and Japan, representing approximately 5% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in each of these countries. At the turn of the 21st century, the chemical industry was estimated to be worth more than $1.6 trillion and to employ over 10 million people, globally. During the first half of the 20th century, the chemical sector expanded rapidly, the chemical industry enjoyed a generally positive status in society, and chemicals were widely appreciated as fundamental to individual and societal quality of life. Starting in the 1960s, however, the environmental costs associated with the chemical industry increasingly became the focus, due in part to the impact of books like “Silent Spring” and “Our Stolen Future” and to a number of highly publicized environmental disasters. Galvanizing chemical industry disasters included the 1976 dioxin leak north of Milan, Italy, the Love Canal evacuations in Niagara, New York beginning in 1978, and the Union Carbide leak in Bhopal, India in 1984. Understanding the environmental impact of synthetic compounds is essential to any informed assessment of net societal benefit, for the simple reason that any chemical substance that is in commercial production or use will eventually find its way to the environment. Not surprisingly given the direct link to profits, manufacturers intensely investigate and routinely document the potential benefits of new chemicals and chemical products. In contrast, the environmental risks associated with chemical production and uses are often investigated less intensely and are poorly communicated. An imbalance in the risk-benefit analysis of any synthetic chemical substance or naturally occurring chemical, which presence and concentration in the environment largely reflects human activities and management, is a particular concern owing to the fundamental link between chemistry and biology. Biological organisms are intrinsically a homeostatic balance of innumerable internal and external chemical interactions and, thus, inherently sensitive to changes in the external chemical environment.

Book chapter↗

USGS2023

The value of scientific information — An overview

Introduction The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) provides reliable science, data, information, and models (hereafter collectively referred to as “information”) to describe and understand the Earth. This information is used to minimize loss of life and property from natural disasters; manage water, biological, energy, and mineral resources; and enhance and protect quality of life. USGS science informs public and private decisions, operations, and risk management in all major United States economic sectors, as defined by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and provides critical information for natural resource and natural hazard management and stewardship decisions. Understanding the value of scientific information supports applications of USGS science in land- and water-management decisions, and better informs the public about the return on investment of USGS programs. USGS economists, social scientists, and physical scientists are engaged in collaborative efforts to advance methods to estimate the value of information (VOI) produced by the USGS. These efforts involve collaborating with an international community to develop and refine estimation methods, establish best practices to determine VOI, develop a study repository, and conduct projects to assess the VOI of specific information products and their application. This report focuses on economic valuation conducted by USGS specifically, although the methodology has much broader applicability within the U.S. government, academia, and beyond. Noneconomic valuation techniques for assessing the VOI also exist but are not addressed in this report.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2008

GIS technology and models for assessing landslide hazard and risk

Advances in Geographical Information Systems (GIS) technology and the mathematical/statistical tools for modelling and simulation have led to the growing application of quantitative techniques in many areas of the earth sciences. Few disciplines have embraced these developments more enthusiastically than the study of landslide hazards. Because the shape of the land surface plays a fundamental role in landslide processes, much of this new work has been driven by the increasing availability of digital elevation models (DEMs) and the software to manipulate them. As a result, investigators worldwide are devising spatial models to forecast slope instability in efforts to keep landslide hazards from becoming landslide disasters. The methods range from empirical and heuristic to statistical and physically-based. Despite nearly a quarter-century of progress, e.g. since Carrara (1983) , and a veritable “cottage industry” of current DEM-based hazard mapping, many of these spatial predictions either are based on unsuitable data or are not properly modelled.

Geomorphology↗

USGS2016

Uncertainty in tsunami sediment transport modeling

Erosion and deposition from tsunamis record information about tsunami hydrodynamics and size that can be interpreted to improve tsunami hazard assessment. We explore sources and methods for quantifying uncertainty in tsunami sediment transport modeling. Uncertainty varies with tsunami, study site, available input data, sediment grain size, and model. Although uncertainty has the potential to be large, published case studies indicate that both forward and inverse tsunami sediment transport models perform well enough to be useful for deciphering tsunami characteristics, including size, from deposits. New techniques for quantifying uncertainty, such as Ensemble Kalman Filtering inversion, and more rigorous reporting of uncertainties will advance the science of tsunami sediment transport modeling. Uncertainty may be decreased with additional laboratory studies that increase our understanding of the semi-empirical parameters and physics of tsunami sediment transport, standardized benchmark tests to assess model performance, and development of hybrid modeling approaches to exploit the strengths of forward and inverse models.

Journal of Disaster Research↗

USGS2025

International data gaps at the Center for Engineering Strong Motion Data

The Center for Engineering Strong Motion Data (CESMD) is utilized by seismologists, engineers, and disaster management professionals in the US and has historically achieved and distributed waveforms from across the globe for significant earthquakes. The increased access to the waveforms via Web API (Application Programming Interface) offers a unique opportunity to provide the community complete datasets, sampling a variety of tectonic environments and geologic conditions, increasing the number of available ground motion records for use in ground motion models (GMMs) and improving the accuracy of earthquake engineering evaluations. The objective of this study is to programmatically identify gaps in global event data from the past decade and backfill missing data gaps at CESMD. We first compare the CESMD catalog with the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) Comprehensive Earthquake Catalog identifying regions and time periods where strong-motion data is limited or inadequate. To backfill datasets at CESMD for significant events, we pinpoint regions and time intervals that lack information, creating a list of events for which we’d like to obtain data. An important facet of this work is identifying the source of data and metadata across earthquake repositories around the world and integrating these data repositories into our current strong-motion data processing workflow. In parallel with these newly processed datasets, we are developing a script to produce data origination citations to include provenance and attribution information to associate with respective datasets at CESMD. We showcase our methodology for identifying and filling data gaps at CESMD using three case studies (the 2018 Anchorage Alaska earthquake sequence, seismicity associated with the 2018 Hawaiian Kilauea volcano eruption, and several earthquakes in Turkey) and then outline our strategy to apply our data gap backfilling methods on an international scale.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2009

Volcanism and associated hazards: The Andean perspective

Andean volcanism occurs within the Andean Volcanic Arc (AVA), which is the product of subduction of the Nazca Plate and Antarctica Plates beneath the South America Plate. The AVA is Earth's longest but discontinuous continental-margin volcanic arc, which consists of four distinct segments: Northern Volcanic Zone, Central Volcanic Zone, Southern Volcanic Zone, and Austral Volcanic Zone. These segments are separated by volcanically inactive gaps that are inferred to indicate regions where the dips of the subducting plates are too shallow to favor the magma generation needed to sustain volcanism. The Andes host more volcanoes that have been active during the Holocene (past 10 000 years) than any other volcanic region in the world, as well as giant caldera systems that have produced 6 of the 47 largest explosive eruptions (so-called "super eruptions") recognized worldwide that have occurred from the Ordovician to the Pleistocene. <br><br> The Andean region's most powerful historical explosive eruption occurred in 1600 at Huaynaputina Volcano (Peru). The impacts of this event, whose eruptive volume exceeded 11 km 3 , were widespread, with distal ashfall reported at distances >1000 km away. Despite the huge size of the Huaynaputina eruption, human fatalities from hazardous processes (pyroclastic flows, ashfalls, volcanogenic earthquakes, and lahars) were comparatively small owing to the low population density at the time. In contrast, lahars generated by a much smaller eruption (<0.05 km 3 ) in 1985 of Nevado del Ruiz (Colombia) killed about 25 000 people - the worst volcanic disaster in the Andean region as well as the second worst in the world in the 20th century. The Ruiz tragedy has been attributed largely to ineffective communications of hazards information and indecisiveness by government officials, rather than any major deficiencies in scientific data. Ruiz's disastrous outcome, however, together with responses to subsequent hazardous eruptions in Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru has spurred significant improvements in reducing volcano risk in the Andean region. But much remains to be done.

Huaynaputina Volcano↗

USGS2010

The ASTER data system: An overview of the data products in Japan and in the United States

The Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) data system is a cooperative system, which is operated jointly by Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI) through its Earth Remote Sensing Data Analysis Center (ERSDAC), and by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) primarily through its Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) and Land Processes (LP) Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC). ASTER is a moderate-resolution land remote sensing system onboard the Earth Observing System (EOS) Terra spacecraft. ASTER-acquired data are received at the White Sands, New Mexico, ground receiving station, and then transmitted via land network to the EOS Data and Operations System (EDOS) within the Goddard DAAC, located at the GSFC. EDOS pre-processes raw ASTER data to Level-0 (L0) data, and sends them via the high-speed Asia-Pacific Advanced Network (APAN) to the ASTER Ground Data System (GDS) in Japan. ASTER GDS processes the L0 data to level-1 (L1) datasets; they distribute these data to users, and also use them to generate higher-level products for their user community. ASTER GDS sends a copy of all L1A data they produce to NASA’s LP DAAC, located at the U.S. Geological Survey’s Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) near Sioux Falls, South Dakota. All L1 data received from Japan are ingested, archived, and available for users at LP DAAC. The LP DAAC also generates and distributes higher-level products from L1 data based on requests from users. To meet time-critical needs related to sensor health and performance, natural disasters, national emergencies, and certain field campaigns, the ASTER Expedited Data System (EDS) was developed, and is operated jointly by U.S. and Japanese partners.

Book chapter↗

USGS2016

Enabling science support for better decision-making when responding to chemical spills

Chemical spills and accidents contaminate the environment and disrupt societies and economies around the globe. In the United States there were approximately 172,000 chemical spills that affected US waterbodies from 2004 to 2014. More than 8000 of these spills involved non–petroleum-related chemicals. Traditional emergency responses or incident command structures (ICSs) that respond to chemical spills require coordinated efforts by predominantly government personnel from multiple disciplines, including disaster management, public health, and environmental protection. However, the requirements of emergency response teams for science support might not be met within the traditional ICS. We describe the US ICS as an example of emergency-response approaches to chemical spills and provide examples in which external scientific support from research personnel benefitted the ICS emergency response, focusing primarily on nonpetroleum chemical spills. We then propose immediate, near-term, and long-term activities to support the response to chemical spills, focusing on nonpetroleum chemical spills. Further, we call for science support for spill prevention and near-term spill-incident response and identify longer-term research needs. The development of a formal mechanism for external science support of ICS from governmental and nongovernmental scientists would benefit rapid responders, advance incident- and crisis-response science, and aid society in coping with and recovering from chemical spills.

Journal of Environmental Quality↗

USGS2000

Hydrological Aspects of Weather Prediction and Flood Warnings: Report of the Ninth Prospectus Development Team of the U.S. Weather Research Program

Among the many natural disasters that disrupt human and industrial activity in the United States each year, including tornadoes, hurricanes, extreme temperatures, and lightning, floods are among the most devastating and rank second in the loss of life. Indeed, the societal impact of floods has increased during the past few years and shows no sign of abating. Although the scientific questions associated with flooding and its accurate prediction are many and complex, an unprecedented opportunity now exists - in light of new observational and computing systems and infrastructures, a much improved understanding of small-scale meteorological and hydrological processes, and the availability of sophisticated numerical models and data assimilation systems - to attack the flood forecasting problem in a comprehensive manner that will yield significant new scientific insights and corresponding practical benefits. The authors present herein a set of recommendations for advancing our understanding of floods via the creation of natural laboratories situated in a variety of local meteorological and hydrological settings. Emphasis is given to floods caused by convection and cold season events, fronts and extratropical cyclones, orographic forcing, and hurricanes and tropical cyclones following landfall. Although the particular research strategies applied within each laboratory setting will necessarily vary, all will share the following principal elements: (a) exploitation of those couplings important to flooding that exist between meteorological and hydrological processes and models; (b) innovative use of operational radars, research radars, satellites, and rain gauges to provide detailed spatial characterizations of precipitation fields and rates, along with the use of this information in hydrological models and for improving and validating microphysical algorithms in meteorological models; (c) comparisons of quantitative precipitation estimation algorithms from both research (especially multiparameter) and operational radars against gauge data as well as output produced by meso- and storm-scale models; (d) use of data from dense, temporary river gauge networks to trace the fate of rain from its starting location in small basins to the entire stream and river network; and (e) sensitivity testing in the design and implementation of separate as well as coupled meteorological and hydrologic models, the latter designed to better represent those nonlinear feedbacks between the atmosphere and land that are known to play an important role in runoff prediction. Vital to this effort will be the creation of effective and sustained linkages between the historically separate though scientifically related disciplines of meteorology and hydrology, as well as their observational infrastructures and research methodologies.

Conference Paper↗

USGS1994

Worldwide Assessment of the Status of Seismic Zonation, Fourth International Forum on Seismic Zonation, Proceedings

We are pleased to provide you with information developed for the Fourth International Forum on Seismic Zonation which will be convened in two locations year in conjunction two major international meetings. The objectives are: 1) to assess the status of seismic zonation in every country of the world, 2) to evaluate the reasons for advances and new initiatives, and 3) to foster continued cooperation. Seismic zonation is the process that leads to risk reduction and sustainability of new development. It is based on the division of a geographic region into smaller areas or zones on the basis of an integrated assessment of the hazard, built, and policy environments of the region. Seismic zonation depends on hazard mapping performed on national/regional, subregional, and urban (i.e., microzonation) scales depending on the particular application. We gratefully acknowledge the written communications of many professionals who responded to our request for information. Also, we acknowledge the use of information contained in five valuable reports (see directories in the Appendices for information on where to obtain copies of the reports): 1. United Nations, 1990, Cooperative Project for Seismic Risk Reduction in the Mediterranean Region (SEISMED), proceedings, Office of the United Nations Disaster Relief Coordinator, Geneva, Switzerland, 3 vols. (Franco Maranzana - Italy/Appendix D). 2. United States Geological Survey, 1992, The Worldwide Earthquake Risk Management (WWERM) Program, Reston, Virginia, 19 p (Paul Thenhaus or S.T. Algermissen - USA/ Appendix D). 3. Instituto Panamericano de Geografia Historia, 1992, Revista Geofisica, Lima, Peru, No. 37, July-December, 234 p (Alberto Giesecke- Peru/Appendix D). 4. Annali di Geofisica, 1992, Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP) (Special Issue), International Lithosphere Program, Publication 209, Bologna, Italy, 257 p (Domenico Giardini-Italy/Appendix F). 5. International Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth's Interior and European Seismological Commission, 1993, The Practice of Hazard Assessment, Golden, Colorado, 284 p (Write Bob Engdahl, U.S. Geological Survey, Denver Federal Center, Mail Stop 967, Denver, Colorado 80225, USA).

Open-File Report↗

USGS2026

USGS Landslide Disaster Assistance Team (LDAT): Reducing risk through international partnerships

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Landslide Disaster Assistance Team (LDAT) collaborates with international counterparts to reduce landslide risk through technical training and emergency response. LDAT assists foreign partners, upon request, with developing landslide mapping, monitoring and response products and protocols. LDAT draws from USGS scientists and partners with countries globally. LDAT is currently engaging in a range of technical assistance activities in Chile, El Salvador, Fiji, the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), Guatemala, Peru, and Sri Lanka. In this extended abstract, three examples of recent international landslide collaborations are showcased for FSM and with the Ministerio de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales (MARN) in El Salvador, and the Mineral Resources Department (MRD) in Fiji. These efforts range from USGS- produced landslide initiation and runout maps (FSM) to feedback on independently led efforts to create national susceptibility maps (El Salvador), to trainings focused on building in-country landslide technical programs (Fiji). The LDAT partnerships help foreign partners reduce risk from landslides. The partnerships also help USGS scientists develop important international relationships that foster collaboration and broader understanding of landslides, which help advance the domestic USGS mission of reducing landslide risks.

Chuuk, Kosrae, Pohnpei↗

USGS2019

Financing agricultural drought risk through ex-ante cash transfers

Despite advances in drought early warning systems, forecast information is rarely used for triggering and financing early actions, such as cash transfer. Scaling up cash transfer pay-outs , and overcoming the barriers to actions based on forecasts, requires an understanding of costs resulting from False Alarms, and the potential benefits associated with appropriate early interventions. On this study, we evaluate the potential cost-effectiveness of cash transfer responses, comparing the relative costs of ex-ante cash transfers during the maize growing season to ex-post cash transfers after harvesting in Kenya. For that, we developed a forecast model using Fast-and Frugal Trees that unravels early warning relationships between climate variability, vegetation coverage, and maize yields at multiple lead times. Results indicate that our models correctly forecast low maize yield events 85% of the time across the districts studied, some already six months before harvesting. The models’ performance improves towards the end of the growing season driven by a decrease of 39% in the probability of False Alarms. Overall, we show that timely cash transfers ex-ante to a disaster can often be more cost-effective than investing in ex-post expenditures. Our findings suggest that early response can yield significant cost savings, and can potentially increase the effectiveness of existing cash transfer systems.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS2005

An assessment of volcanic threat and monitoring capabilities in the United States: Framework for a National Volcano Early Warning System

Executive Summary NVEWS – a National Volcano Early Warning System – is being formulated by the Consortium of U.S. Volcano Observatories (CUSVO) to establish a proactive, fully integrated, national-scale monitoring effort that ensures the most threatening volcanoes in the United States are properly monitored in advance of the onset of unrest and at levels commensurate with the threats posed. Volcanic threat is the combination of hazards (the destructive natural phenomena produced by a volcano) and exposure (people and property at risk from the hazards). The United States has abundant volcanoes, and over the past 25 years the Nation has experienced a diverse range of the destructive phenomena that volcanoes can produce. Hazardous volcanic activity will continue to occur, and – because of increasing population, increasing development, and expanding national and international air traffic over volcanic regions – the exposure of human life and enterprise to volcano hazards is increasing. Fortunately, volcanoes exhibit precursory unrest that if detected and analyzed in time allows eruptions to be anticipated and communities at risk to be forewarned with reliable information in sufficient time to implement response plans and mitigation measures. In the 25 years since the cataclysmic eruption of Mount St. Helens, scientific and technological advances in volcanology have been used to develop and test models of volcanic behavior and to make reliable forecasts of expected activity a reality. Until now, these technologies and methods have been applied on an ad hoc basis to volcanoes showing signs of activity. However, waiting to deploy a robust, modern monitoring effort until a hazardous volcano awakens and an unrest crisis begins is socially and scientifically unsatisfactory because it forces scientists, civil authorities, citizens, and businesses into “playing catch up” with the volcano, trying to get instruments and civil-defense measures in place before the unrest escalates and the situation worsens. Inevitably, this manner of response results in our missing crucial early stages of the volcanic unrest and hampers our ability to accurately forecast events. Restless volcanoes do not always progress to eruption; nevertheless, monitoring is necessary in such cases to minimize either over-reacting, which costs money, or under-reacting, which may cost lives. Volcano monitoring in the U.S. is conducted by five volcano observatories, supported primarily by the USGS Volcano Hazards Program. Under the Stafford Act, the USGS is responsible for issuing timely warnings of potential volcanic disasters to the affected populace and civil authorities. To make maximum use of the Nation’s scientific resources, the USGS operates the observatories with the help of universities and other governmental agencies, through formal partnerships. At present, about half of the most threatening U.S. volcanoes are monitored at a basic level with real-time sensors (primarily seismic arrays), and a few are well monitored with a suite of modern instrument types and methods. However, monitoring capabilities at many hazardous volcanoes are known to be sparse or antiquated, and some hazardous volcanoes have no ground-based monitoring whatsoever.

Marianas Islands↗

USGS2013

Flood-inundation maps for the Saluda River from Old Easley Bridge Road to Saluda Lake Dam near Greenville, South Carolina

Digital flood-inundation maps for a 3.95-mile reach of the Saluda River from approximately 815 feet downstream from Old Easley Bridge Road to approximately 150 feet downstream from Saluda Lake Dam near Greenville, South Carolina, were developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/, depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at the USGS streamgage at Saluda River near Greenville, South Carolina (station 02162500). Current conditions at the USGS streamgage may be obtained through the National Water Information System Web site at http://waterdata.usgs.gov/sc/nwis/uv/?site_no=02162500&PARAmeter_cd=00065,00060,00062. The National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts flood hydrographs at many places that are often collocated with USGS streamgages. Forecasted peak-stage information is available on the Internet at the NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) flood-warning system Web site (http://water.weather.gov/ahps/) and may be used in conjunction with the maps developed in this study to show predicted areas of flood inundation.In this study, flood profiles were computed for the stream reach by means of a one-dimensional step-backwater model. The model was calibrated using the most current stage-streamflow relations at USGS streamgage station 02162500, Saluda River near Greenville, South Carolina. The hydraulic model was then used to determine water-surface profiles for flood stages at 1.0-foot intervals referenced to the streamgage datum and ranging from approximately bankfull to 2 feet higher than the highest recorded water level at the streamgage. The simulated water-surface profiles were then exported to a geographic information system, ArcGIS, and combined with a digital elevation model (derived from Light Detection and Ranging [LiDAR] data with a 0.6-foot vertical Root Mean Square Error [RMSE] and a 3.0-foot horizontal RMSE), using HEC-GeoRAS tools in order to delineate the area flooded at each water level. The availability of these maps, along with real-time stage data from the USGS streamgage station 02162500 and forecasted stream stages from the NWS, can provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical during flood-response and flood-recovery activities, such as evacuations, road closures, and disaster declarations.

South Carolina↗

USGS2008

Scientific and public responses to the ongoing volcanic crisis at Popocatépetl Volcano, Mexico: Importance of an effective hazards-warning system

Volcanic eruptions and other potentially hazardous natural phenomena occur independently of any human actions. However, such phenomena can cause disasters when a society fails to foresee the hazardous manifestations and adopt adequate measures to reduce its vulnerability. One of the causes of such a failure is the lack of a consistent perception of the changing hazards posed by an ongoing eruption, i.e., with members of the scientific community, the Civil Protection authorities and the general public having diverging notions about what is occurring and what may happen. The problem of attaining a perception of risk as uniform as possible in a population measured in millions during an evolving eruption requires searching for communication tools that can describe—as simply as possible—the relations between the level of threat posed by the volcano, and the level of response of the authorities and the public. The hazards-warning system adopted at Popocatépetl Volcano, called the Volcanic Traffic Light Alert System (VTLAS), is a basic communications protocol that translates volcano threat into seven levels of preparedness for the emergency-management authorities, but only three levels of alert for the public (color coded green–yellow–red). The changing status of the volcano threat is represented as the most likely scenarios according to the opinions of an official scientific committee analyzing all available data. The implementation of the VTLAS was intended to reduce the possibility of ambiguous interpretations of intermediate levels by the endangered population. Although the VTLAS is imperfect and has not solved all problems involved in mass communication and decision-making during a volcanic crisis, it marks a significant advance in the management of volcanic crises in Mexico.

Popocatepetl Volcano↗

USGS2023

Advancing best practices for the analysis of the vulnerability of military installations in the Pacific Basin to coastal flooding under a changing climate – RC-2644

Coastal flooding takes many forms, ranging from major flooding associated with storms to minor flooding associated with exceptionally high tides and other oceanic and atmospheric phenomena on storm-free days. A major societal challenge is to understand and predict how flood magnitude and frequency will manifest at particular places and times, now and in the future. Of particular interest here is how coastal flooding will impact Department of Defense (DoD) installations. In response to this need, this work aims to advance the practical application of statistical and other analytical techniques that can be used to assess the exposure, and ultimately the vulnerability, of built and natural environments to the impacts of coastal flooding. A variety of methods are described and applied to assess exposure. This includes tide gauge station-based diagnosis and prognosis of patterns and trends of Still Water Level, techniques to characterize the expression of ‘lesser extremes’ (e.g., sub-annual to subdecadal event probabilities), and region-wide analysis that improves upon results obtained from conventional single-tide gauge analyses. A novel hybrid statistical and dynamical modeling approach is applied to the analysis of Total Water Levels, necessary for exposure assessment along shorelines exposed to wave action. The hybrid exposure assessment modeling approach is incorporated into a broader mission-based protocol for the assessment of resilience to coastal flooding at the installation level. Demonstrated via an exemplar assessment, which takes into account functional (lost day) as well as financial impacts (lost dollars), the protocol meets the demand for an actionable characterization of how DoD installations will be affected by coastal flooding and improves DoD’s ability to make informed decisions about how to adapt to its effects. The methods described, evaluated, and applied here, including innovative approaches and proof-of-concept products developed through this work, are incorporated into and considered within an analytical framework that serves as guidance as to their relative merits with respect to coastal flood exposure assessment in various circumstances and settings, and illustrates best practices. This will provide engineers, scientists and other practitioners with an enhanced capability to generate information that can be used to support area-wide assessment related to climate adaptation planning and disaster risk reduction as well as site-specific analysis related to design and maintenance of facilities and infrastructure. While the focus is on a select set of DoD sites in the Pacific Basin, the results have broad applicability nationally as well as globally.

Final Report↗