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A review of post-wildfire adaptations of surface-water-quality models: Synthesis, gaps, and opportunities

As wildfires increasingly affect water-supply watersheds, the demand for models to predict water-quality responses is increasing. This work reviews and synthesizes existing post-wildfire applications of water-quality models in the context of geographic and ecohydrological distribution, hydrologic and water-quality response process representation, model parameterization, model and input data scales, model calibration data availability, as well as calibration and performance evaluation approaches. Emphasis is placed on models that simulate water-quality output, rather than sediment and erosional response as the primary focus. Here, identified gaps and opportunities to advance the post-wildfire application of water-quality models include: 1. applying models in under-represented geographic and ecohydrologic regions, 2. simulating multiple streamflow generation mechanisms, including groundwater, with an emphasis on shifting dominant flow pathways as the landscape recovers following wildfire, 3. adding studies that include the simulation of metals, 4. incorporating more biogeochemical and in-stream processes to model applications, 5. applying finer spatial and temporal resolution of precipitation data input as well as finer spatial resolution hydrologic response units, 6. implementing fully distributed grid or element models or finer resolution response units to capture burn severity heterogeneity, 7. collecting enhanced water-quality data for model calibration and validation, 8. conducting model-intercomparison studies, and 9. developing model parameter value guidance in post-wildfire applications. These identified gaps and opportunities may assist users in deciding on key processes and approaches to consider in modeling post-wildfire water-quality conditions.

Science of the Total Environment

Aftershock forecasting

Aftershocks can compound the impacts of a major earthquake, disrupting recovery efforts and potentially further damaging weakened buildings and infrastructure. Forecasts of the probability of aftershocks can therefore aid decision-making during earthquake response and recovery. Several countries issue authoritative aftershock forecasts. Most aftershock forecasts are based on simple statistical models that were first developed in the 1980s and remain the best available models. We review these statistical models, and the wide-ranging research to advance aftershock forecasting through better statistical, physical, and machine learning methods. Physics-based forecasts based on mainshock stress changes can sometimes match the statistical models in testing, but don’t yet outperform them. Physical models are also hampered by unsolved problems such as the mechanics of dynamic triggering and the influence of background conditions. Initial work on machine learning forecasts shows promise, and new machine learning earthquake catalogs provide an opportunity to advance all types of aftershock forecasts.

Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences

Geochemical monitoring of volcanic fluids in the twenty-first century

This chapter reviews the state-of-the-art of geochemical volcano monitoring techniques. We cover in-situ monitoring technologies that rely on sampling fluids (direct sampling) and on instrumental analysis of the composition of such fluids in real-time (remote sensing of volcanic fluids is covered elsewhere in this book). We first review key concepts and principles in the field, and then review the results of some selected case studies and applications. We cover the large variety of fluid categories emitted by volcanoes, in both the near-(crater fumaroles and lakes, and plumes) and far-(degassing soils, groundwaters) fields. Our aim is to demonstrate the utility of measuring the chemistry of fluids released by volcanoes, and how these can help characterize volcano unrest, and eventually the increased likelihood of eruption. We conclude with a brief discussion of current challenges and knowledge gaps, and on future directions in geochemical monitoring.

Book chapter

Collaborative drought science planning in the Colorado River Basin

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is using collaborative, interdisciplinary planning to develop data and tools needed to optimize the management of water resources and land use by resource management agencies during an ongoing, multidecadal drought in the Colorado River Basin. The USGS Actionable and Strategic Integrated Science and Technology team works to build relationships with resource management agencies and other stakeholders who can benefit from the use of USGS data and products. In 2023, the Actionable and Strategic Integrated Science and Technology team hosted a series of collaborative workshops to bring together representatives of resource management agencies and other stakeholders (any person or entity with interests in a resource or location) with USGS program managers, scientists, and multidisciplinary subject matter experts to codevelop concepts for interdisciplinary drought science and technology projects to address pressing needs related to drought in the Colorado River Basin. Workshop participants identified current and recent scientific data that could be shared through a centralized online data portal. Workshop participants also identified drought science and technology needs and developed project concepts to address those science needs. Participants categorized project concepts based on their potential to develop short-, mid-, and long-term drought science data and tools, provide for the spatial or temporal expansion of ongoing USGS science projects, and address high-priority science needs. Participants developed nine project concepts: (1) understanding shifting ecohydrologic baselines, (2) San Juan River Basin synthesis, (3) incorporating dynamic land cover into hydrologic models, (4) aridification compared to drought, (5) surface water-groundwater interactions, (6) cascading effects of drought on dust, (7) cascading effects of drought on water availability, (8) cascading effects of drought on socioeconomic factors, and (9) the value of water in the Colorado River Basin. This report provides an overview of the 2023 Codesign Workshop Series, synthesized outcomes from workshop materials and discussions, and science project concepts that emerged from the collaborative meetings that will continue to be refined into science project proposals through codevelopment processes. This report also highlights lessons learned and next steps needed to receive feedback and testing of the USGS Science Collaboration Portal, continue collaboration to develop detailed specifics and steps for short-term wins, develop interdisciplinary project proposals, and implement science planning and studies.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico,

Magnetic storms and geoelectric hazards

Magnetic storms induce geoelectric fields at Earth's surface that can interfere with grounded long-line systems. The September 1859 storm disrupted global telegraph operations, the March 1989 storm caused a blackout in Canada and interfered with electric-power-transmission systems in the United States, and other storms have had related impacts. The geographic and temporal dependence of geoelectric fields are functions of both geomagnetic variation and local surface impedance, which differ considerably across different geological regions. These dependencies can be mapped across the contiguous United States by combining magnetotelluric impedance tensors with ground magnetometer time series. This review illustrates such mapping for the 1989 storm and shows that power-system interference was experienced where surface impedance is high, and when and where geoelectric fields were intense. Statistical analyses indicate that storms comparable to that of March 1989 occur roughly once every four solar cycles. Ongoing developments in numerical modeling and real-time monitoring are anticipated to enable prediction of geoelectric hazards. ▪ Magnetic storms can induced electric fields in the solid Earth that interfere with electric-power-transmission systems. ▪ Geoelectric hazards depend on the storm-time geomagnetic disturbance and the electrical conductivity structure of Earth. ▪ Historically, impacts on telecommunication and power-transmission systems in the United States have been concentrated in the East and Midwest. ▪ The future occurrence of a magnetic superstorm could cause widespread disruption of electric-power-transmission systems.

Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences

Geochemical processes related to mined, milled, or natural metal deposits in a rapidly changing global environment

The demand for metals and raw materials, such as nickel and copper, has been projected to expand in the coming decades, driven by the global energy transition, the need for green technologies, and expanding infrastructure. Consequently, the increasing extraction and production of mining waste can have adverse impacts on surrounding environments and human health. The aim of this thematic collection is to fill critical knowledge gaps in the present-day cycles of metal(loid)s from source to larger sinks, and the effect of environmental management, anthropogenic development, and climate change. Altogether, the studies have been conducted in different natural settings around the world and comprise investigations in laterites, a soil-medicinal plant system, watersheds, and banded iron formations, among others. The geochemical applications in tracing mineralization, its secondary products, and/or potential impact on the immediate environment are highly diverse with applied tools ranging from isotope tracers to major and trace element systematics. Particularly the use of rare earth elements, their patterns and anomalies are methods employed by several studies in this collection. We summarize the findings to offer a potential future direction for the use of geochemical tracing techniques in resource exploration in the context of climate change and environmental challenges.

Geochemistry: Exploration, Environment, Analysis

Influence of inherited structure on flexural extension in foreland basin systems: Evidence from the northern Arkoma basin and southern Ozark dome, USA

Extensional faults are key components of foreland basin systems. They form within the upper crust in response to flexure of the lithosphere and accommodate subsidence within the foredeep and forebulge depozones. Such faults are excellent proxies for orogenic system evolution and control the distribution of natural resources and hazards. However, the spatiotemporal evolution of flexural extension has not been documented previously at a regional scale, thereby limiting our understanding of underlying geodynamic controls. Here, we resolve late Paleozoic flexural extension in the northern Arkoma basin and southern Ozark dome, USA. We synthesize a large database of previous mapping, existing research, subsurface data, and geophysical data into 3D geologic and 2D kinematic models. Mesh surfaces representing several key horizons from the Carboniferous Period (ca. 335-306 Ma) were constructed. These surfaces were built from oil and gas well tops (n = ∼10,000) and surface geologic map contacts using an advanced kriging method. The mesh surfaces are offset by a complex 3D fault network, allowing detailed analysis of along-strike and down-dip variations in fault displacement. Analysis of the 3D model reveals a regular and repeated fault segmentation pattern wherein E -W striking, left- and foreland-stepping en échelon normal faults are segmented by inherited NE striking basement faults. Maximum vertical separation along the E -W normal faults is generally focused between the inherited NE-trending faults. This suggests that the inherited basement faults delocalized extensional strain during late Paleozoic normal faulting. Maximum vertical separation and fault localization may correlate to areas with high-amplitude positive magnetic anomalies interpreted as Mesoproterozoic granitic rocks. Speculative covariance of magnetic anomalies and fault displacements implies that the relatively strong basement granite concentrated stress, leading to localized faulting within the relatively thin sedimentary cover. Lastly, we show that flexural extension migrated southeast to northwest from the Chesterian-Morrowan (ca. 335-319 Ma) to the Desmoinesian (ca. 306 Ma). The migratory flexural extension may be explained by diachronous loading during Pangean assembly, or by synchronous loading but variable load compensation due to inherent factors.

Arkansas, Oklahoma

The EnMAP spaceborne imaging spectroscopy mission: Initial scientific results two years after launch

Imaging spectroscopy has been a recognized and established remote sensing technology since the 1980s, mainly using airborne and field-based platforms to identify and quantify key bio- and geo-chemical surface and atmospheric compounds, based on characteristic spectral reflectance features in the visible-near infrared (VNIR) and short-wave infrared (SWIR). Spaceborne missions, a leap in technology, were sparse, starting with the CHRIS/PROBA and EO1/Hyperion missions in the early 2000s, and providing spectroscopy data with limited spectral coverage and/or low data quality in the SWIR. Since 2019, several countries and agencies have successfully launched a number of spaceborne imaging spectroscopy systems into orbit or deployed them on the International Space Station (ISS) such as DESIS, PRISMA, HISUI, GF-5, EnMAP and EMIT. Among these recent missions, the German Environmental Mapping and Analysis Program (EnMAP) stands for its long-term development, sophisticated design with on-board calibration, high data quality requirements, and extensive accompanying science program. EnMAP was launched in April 2022 and, following a successful commissioning phase, started its operational activities in November 2022. The EnMAP mission encompasses global coverage from 80° N to 80° S through on-demand data acquisitions. Data are free and open access with 30 m spatial resolution, a high spectral resolution with a spectral sampling distance of 6.5 nm and 10 nm in the VNIR and SWIR regions respectively, and a high signal-to-noise ratio. In this paper, we aim to present the mission's current status, coverage, science capabilities and performance two years after launch. We show the potential of EnMAP for space-based imaging spectroscopy to operate in various environments, including high and low light levels, dense forests, Antarctic glaciers, and arid agricultural areas. EnMAP enables various applications in fields such as agriculture and forestry, soil compositional, raw materials, and methane mapping, as well as water quality assessment, and snow and ice properties. The results show that EnMAP's performance exceeds the mission requirements, and highlights the significant potential for contribution to scientific exploitation in various geo- and biochemical sciences. EnMAP is also expected to serve as a key tool for the development and testing of data processing algorithms for upcoming global operational missions.

Remote Sensing of Environment

Methods for quantifying interactions between groundwater and surface water

Driven by the need for integrated management of groundwater (GW) and surface water (SW), quantification of GW–SW interactions and associated contaminant transport has become increasingly important. This is due to their substantial impact on water quantity and quality. In this review, we provide an overview of the methods developed over the past several decades to investigate GW–SW interactions. These methods include geophysical, hydrometric, and tracer techniques, as well as various modeling approaches. Different methods reveal valuable information on GW–SW interactions at different scales with their respective advantages and limitations. Interpreting data from these techniques can be challenging due to factors like scale effects, heterogeneous hydrogeological conditions, sediment variability, and complex spatiotemporal connections between GW and SW. To facilitate the selection of appropriate methods for specific sites, we discuss the strengths, weaknesses, and challenges of each technique, and we offer perspectives on knowledge gaps in the current science.

Annual Review of Environment and Resources

The Europa Imaging System (EIS) investigation

The Europa Imaging System (EIS) consists of a Narrow-Angle Camera (NAC) and a Wide-Angle Camera (WAC) that are designed to work together to address high-priority science objectives regarding Europa’s geology, composition, and the nature of its ice shell. EIS accommodates variable geometry and illumination during rapid, low-altitude flybys with both framing and pushbroom imaging capability using rapid-readout, 8-megapixel (4k × 2k) detectors. Color observations are acquired using pushbroom imaging with up to six broadband filters. The data processing units (DPUs) perform digital time delay integration (TDI) to enhance signal-to-noise ratios and use readout strategies to measure and correct spacecraft jitter. The NAC has a 2.3° × 1.2° field of view (FOV) with a 10-μrad instantaneous FOV (IFOV), thus achieving 0.5-m pixel scale over a swath that is 2 km wide and several km long from a range of 50 km. The NAC is mounted on a 2-axis gimbal, ±30° cross- and along-track, that enables independent targeting and near-global (≥90%) mapping of Europa at ≤100-m pixel scale (to date, only ∼15% of Europa has been imaged at ≤900 m/pixel), as well as stereo imaging from as close as 50-km altitude to generate digital terrain models (DTMs) with ≤4-m ground sample distance (GSD) and ≤0.5-m vertical precision. The NAC will also perform observations at long range to search for potential erupting plumes, achieving 10-km pixel scale at a distance of one million kilometers. The WAC has a 48° × 24° FOV with a 218-μrad IFOV, achieving 11-m pixel scale at the center of a 44-km-wide swath from a range of 50 km, and generating DTMs with 32-m GSD and ≤4-m vertical precision. The WAC is designed to acquire three-line pushbroom stereo and color swaths along flyby ground-tracks.

Space Science Reviews

Using visualization science to inform the design of environmental decision-support tools—A case study of the U.S. Geological Survey Waterwatch

Environmental decision-support tools are increasingly being used to serve both expert and non-expert audiences. Many existing tools are primarily expert-focused, and redesigning them can be challenging because experts and non-experts interact with tools differently, existing users may be resistant to changes, and there is little guidance on how to prioritize redesign efforts and demonstrate their efficacy. In this report, we present a case study of a user-centered redesign of an established environmental decision-support tool—the U.S. Geological Survey WaterWatch. WaterWatch supports flood, drought, and other water resource management decisions through the display of water levels at gages across the United States. Using a participatory process, we identified a functional change (replacing the existing rainbow colormap), created an alternative design, and tested the alternative’s usability through two general public surveys. The results showed that replacing the rainbow colormap with a more intuitive diverging colormap improves usability, regardless of the audience’s subjective preference for the rainbow color scheme. In addition, we demonstrated the importance of using legends to improve the audience’s understanding of the map symbols. This study demonstrates how user-centered design approaches can be used to inform the design of high-profile products and tools.

Scientific Investigations Report

Performance analysis of oil recovery and CO2 retention in a greenfield residual oil zone: CO2-EOR in Tall Cotton Field (Permian Basin, West Texas, USA)

Residual oil zones (ROZs) can offer significant oil resources via enhanced oil recovery (EOR) as well as subsurface carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) retention during injection. If injected CO 2 is anthropogenic, the ROZs can offer a substantial geologic storage potential. The ROZs below the oil/water contact (OWC) of main pay zones (MPZ) in conventional reservoirs or brownfields, are more commonly developed for CO 2 injection and oil production and reported in the literature. However, CO 2 -EOR in greenfield ROZs, reservoirs without a MPZ present, have rarely been developed for CO 2 -EOR operation. The Tall Cotton Field of West Texas, Permian Basin, which started production in 2015 (Phase 1) and expanded in 2017 (Phase 2) from the San Andres Limestone, is one of the first examples of greenfield ROZs developed for EOR by injecting CO 2 . This paper analyses EOR and CO 2 retention performance of Tall Cotton Field using allocated injection and production data from inverted 5-spot well patterns of Phase-1 and -2 developments. Production and injection data allocated to each of the 28 identified patterns (nine 20-acre patterns for Phase-1, three 20-acre and sixteen 10-acre patterns for Phase-2) were analyzed for historical and forecasted oil recovery using ratio-trend decline analysis, and for CO 2 retention performance of the patterns. The allocated data were further used to calculate injected reservoir pore volume and void replacement ratios (VRR) for the analysis period. Quantitative results indicated that oil recovery factors of the 5-spot patterns varied between 4–10 %, and 5–30 % between the end of injection and the forecast periods, respectively. Storage of CO 2 , on the other hand, increased to a mean value of ∼7130 MMscf per pattern in Phase-1 and to a mean storage of 3700 MMscf per pattern in Phase-2 until the end of injection, followed by a decline after the end of injection and into the forecast period. Resulting CO 2 utilization factors ∼6–50 Mscf/bbl were estimated at the end of injection. Overall, presented results suggested that developing greenfield ROZs for CO 2 -EOR can be as promising as brownfield ROZs and mature MPZs for EOR and underground storage of injected CO 2 . For Tall Cotton Field, results suggest that Phase-2 patterns generally outperformed Phase-1 for oil recovery factors, while Phase-1 performed better in CO 2 retention performance metrics. This is the first study in the literature that reports a detailed CO 2 -EOR performance analysis of a greenfield ROZ in the Permian Basin, which can potentially allow for comparison with MPZs and brownfield ROZs.

Texas

Estimating the probability of export restrictions to inform mineral criticality

To assess risks associated with advanced technologies’ supply chain disruptions, governmental agencies and others have developed mineral “criticality” assessments, with criticality described using the economic impact and probability of supply chain disruptions. Previous work developed subjective supply risk indicators to approximate this probability, typically combining several factors such as supply diversity and trading partners’ political stability, where indicator weightings can substantially impact results. This work explicitly quantifies export barrier probability using an ensemble of machine learning classifiers, with probability estimates informed by exogenous variables, including prior barrier implementation and global export dominance. Major differences in high-probability countries and commodities are observed across models, but the ensemble method highlights Indonesia, China, Tanzania, and the United States as particularly high risk. The Supplementary Data File provides export barrier probability estimates for each analyzed country-commodity pair, enabling a direct, quantitative, objective contribution to assessing mineral criticality, enhancing risk identification and prioritization for policymakers.

Resources, Conservation, and Recycling

USGS—An Unparalleled Scientific Asset

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) delivers information critical to powering our economy, managing our natural resources, and keeping Americans safe and healthy. 1 Mapping the Nation $21B Geologic maps save users an estimated 15% in annual costs: a value of between $14B and $21B. $25.6B in annual value to users of imagery from Landsat satellites, which were codeveloped by NASA and the USGS and operated through their lifespans by the USGS. $13.5B in annual benefits is generated by the USGS's 3D Elevation Program. Securing America’s Energy Independence 44% USGS-identified undiscovered geothermal energy is equal to 44% of current U.S. electricity generation. 29.4B barrels of oil and 391.6 trillion cubic feet of gas in recoverable resources are available on U.S. public lands based on USGS assessments. Protecting Americans’ Health and Safety $424B in recent wildland fire damages highlight the need for USGS fire science, which supports efforts to protect communities and reduce risk. USGS earthquake, volcano, landslide, and coastal hazard monitoring and information save lives and minimize costs; for example, $2.8M can be saved because of USGS enhanced information about a Mauna Loa eruption. $4.5B is the estimated cost of annual flooding. Through a network of over 11,885 streamgages, the USGS supports public safety and enables forecasts, early warning systems, and management actions that protect lives and property. Supporting National Security $3.1B The USGS identified a $3.1B risk to the American economy if China restricts gallium imports. This is one example underscoring the importance of the USGS mapping critical minerals, investigating supply chains, and producing the Nation’s critical minerals list. Enhancing Our Lands and Waters $21B in estimated annual costs results from invasive species. The USGS’s invasive species research informs approaches used to reduce their effects on agriculture, water infrastructure, disease transmission, fisheries, and outdoor recreation. USGS innovations support early warnings for harmful algal blooms—over $2M in yearly benefits are provided to Kansas alone. $45B USGS science informs the management of big game (such as deer and elk). The big-game hunting industry contributes $45B to the U.S. economy. Fostering American Prosperity $4.1T Mineral commodities are necessary for the $4.1T in value added to the GDP by major industries that consume processed mineral materials and employ 1 million workers. Because of this, USGS data on mineral supply, demand, and trade are highly valued. 45,000 metric tons Rare earths power the growing technology economy, including cell phones, electric vehicles, and medical devices. For over 70 years, USGS work has supported the discovery of rare earth resources in California’s Mountain Pass area, which produced 45,000 metric tons of rare earth concentrates in 2024—over 11% of the global supply. Guarding American Food Security $70.2B USGS science informs early warning systems and management strategies to mitigate disease outbreaks in agriculture—critical research on highly pathogenic avian influenza, for example, helps safeguard the $70B value in poultry and egg production. $11.8B USGS groundwater tools are vital for agriculture; for example, in the Mississippi Alluvial Plain, 65% of farming relies on groundwater to support its $11.8B annual industry. 1 Values throughout are given in billions (B), millions (M), and trillions (T) of U.S. dollars. GDP is “Gross Domestic Product.” Percentages are shown as %.

General Information Product

Estimating the probability of export restrictions to inform mineral criticality

As demand for advanced technologies rises, mineral commodities will increase in geopolitical importance. To assess risks associated with mineral commodity supply chain disruptions, governmental agencies and others have developed "criticality" assessments, with criticality described using the economic impact and probability of supply chain disruptions. In previous work, subjective supply risk indicators were developed to approximate this probability, typically combining several factors such as supply diversity and political stability of trading partners, where indicator weightings can substantially impact results. This work explicitly quantifies trade barrier probability using an ensemble of several machine learning classifiers, with probability estimates informed by exogenous variables such as prior trade barrier implementation and global export dominance. Major differences in the high-probability countries and commodities are observed across models, but the ensemble method highlights Indonesia, China, Tanzania, and the United States as particularly high risk. This approach enables a direct, quantitative, objective approach to assessing trade barrier probability, enhancing risk identification and prioritization for policymakers.

SSRN

A benchmark dataset and workflow for landslide susceptibility zonation

Landslide susceptibility shows the spatial likelihood of landslide occurrence in a specific geographical area and is a relevant tool for mitigating the impact of landslides worldwide. As such, it is the subject of countless scientific studies. Many methods exist for generating a susceptibility map, mostly falling under the definition of statistical or machine learning. These models try to solve a classification problem: given a collection of spatial variables, and their combination associated with landslide presence or absence, a model should be trained, tested to reproduce the target outcome, and eventually applied to unseen data. Contrary to many fields of science that use machine learning for specific tasks, no reference data exist to assess the performance of a given method for landslide susceptibility. Here, we propose a benchmark dataset consisting of 7360 slope units encompassing an area of about 4,100 km 2 "> 4,100 km 2 in Central Italy. Using the dataset, we tried to answer two open questions in landslide research: (1) what effect does the human variability have in creating susceptibility models; (2) how can we develop a reproducible workflow for allowing meaningful model comparisons within the landslide susceptibility research community. With these questions in mind, we released a preliminary version of the dataset, along with a “call for collaboration,” aimed at collecting different calculations using the proposed data, and leaving the freedom of implementation to the respondents. Contributions were different in many respects, including classification methods, use of predictors, implementation of training/validation, and performance assessment. That feedback suggested refining the initial dataset, and constraining the implementation workflow. This resulted in a final benchmark dataset and landslide susceptibility maps obtained with many classification methods. Values of area under the receiver operating characteristic curve obtained with the final benchmark dataset were rather similar, as an effect of constraints on training, cross–validation, and use of data. Brier score results show larger variability, instead, ascribed to different model predictive abilities. Correlation plots show similarities between results of different methods applied by the same group, ascribed to a residual implementation dependence. We stress that the experiment did not intend to select the “best” method but only to establish a first benchmark dataset and workflow, that may be useful as a standard reference for calculations by other scholars. The experiment, to our knowledge, is the first of its kind for landslide susceptibility modeling. The data and workflow presented here comparatively assess the performance of independent methods for landslide susceptibility and we suggest the benchmark approach as a best practice for quantitative research in geosciences.

Earth-Science Reviews

Airborne geophysical efforts for critical mineral systems mapping in the southern Midcontinent, USA

The increasing global demand for critical minerals to support energy and technological advancement has accelerated exploration and research efforts for these essential resources. Since 2019, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earth Mapping Resources Initiative (EMRI) has worked to modernize geologic mapping of the Nation to better understand its critical mineral resources. To further this initiative, the USGS has flown a series of high-resolution airborne magnetic and radiometric surveys over large areas of the southern Midcontinent. The surveys cover known critical mineral deposits and areas with the potential to host additional critical minerals based on the presence of one or more overlapping mineral systems. One aspect of EMRI emphasizes close collaboration between the USGS and the Association of American State Geologists, as well as other government and industry partners to leverage geophysical, geological, and geochemical expertise on both regional and local scales. The EMRI high-resolution airborne survey data provide new insights into the geophysical framework of the southern Midcontinent and its critical mineral endowment. Additionally, discoveries made from the data have directed new studies for critical mineral exploration.

southern Midcontinent

Refining the earthquake history of south-central Alaska through lake records

The Alaska–Aleutian subduction zone (AASZ) is one of the world's most seismically active plate boundaries and the source of the 1964 M w 9.2 Great Alaska earthquake–the second largest instrumentally recorded earthquake in the world. Understanding the nature and frequency of such earthquakes is necessary for seismic and tsunami hazard assessment, but instrumental and historical records that span less than 150 years are too short to allow a statistically reliable analysis of earthquake recurrence times. This calls for studies of evidence of past earthquakes, extending the earthquake catalog further back in time. Subduction-zone paleoseismology in south-central Alaska is predominantly based on coastal evidence of land-level changes and tsunamis generated by megathrust earthquakes and preserved in the geological record. A complementary approach is lacustrine paleoseismology, which is still a relatively young discipline in Alaska. However, globally, lake basins are well-established high-resolution and continuous recorders of paleoseismic activity along subduction zones, relying on the identification of underwater landslide deposits and turbidites generated by seismic shaking. As a result, lake basins not only register ground shaking from megathrust earthquakes, but also from intraslab and crustal earthquakes, which are typically not accompanied by significant land-level changes. In this review paper, we combine coastal and lacustrine paleoseismology approaches to refine the south-central Alaskan earthquake history by comparing the paleoseismic records from two lakes (i.e., Eklutna Lake, located in the Chugach Mountain Range, and Skilak Lake, situated on the Kenai Peninsula) with the coastal and crustal earthquake catalog in Alaska. The resulting age ranges of all known megathrust earthquakes involving the Alaskan megathrust between the Kodiak and Prince William Sound (PWS) sections are more precise and accurate for the last 1.3 kyrs BP than the previously published age ranges from coastal records. As a result, this study supports the following key conclusions: (1) The 1964 CE earthquake was an exceptionally strong and unique event in the last 2000 years, rupturing the PWS, Kenai, Barren Islands, and Kodiak sections simultaneously. (2) The high-resolution and seasonal markings of the varved lake records now disentangle for the first time closely timed earthquakes, which was not possible based on the coastal evidence alone. (3) No persistent megathrust rupture boundaries exist. So, the possibility of a full rupture of the entire eastern AASZ, from PWS to Semidi cannot be excluded. (4) The rupture pattern in the eastern AASZ reveals superimposed cycles of multi-asperity ruptures (1964 earthquake) and clustered complementary partial ruptures, or rupture cascades. (5) The PWS section hosts the largest asperity in the eastern AASZ. (6) The shaking record of megathrust earthquakes indicates a time-dependent (quasiperiodic) behavior for the study area, but the observation of complementary clusters means that the hazards will not drop to zero but instead may even increase for a neighboring section. (7) The time-independent behavior of intraplate earthquakes implies that the intraslab hazard did not decrease following the 2016 and 2018 earthquakes. This study utilizes an integrated approach for subduction zone paleoseismology as a solution for unraveling recurrence and rupture patterns in Alaska, which can be applied worldwide.

Alaska