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USGS2019

Potentiometric surface of the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer, spring 2016

A potentiometric surface map for spring 2016 was created for the Mississippi River Valley alluvial (MRVA) aquifer using selected available groundwater-altitude data from wells and surface-water-altitude data from streamgages. Most of the wells were measured annually or one time after installation, but some wells were measured more than one time or continually; streamgages are typically operated continuously. Personnel from the Arkansas Natural Resources Commission, Arkansas Department of Health, Arkansas Geological Survey, Illinois Department of Agriculture, Illinois State Water Survey, Louisiana Department of Natural Resources, Louisiana Department of Transportation and Development, Mississippi Department of Environmental Quality, Yazoo Mississippi Delta Joint Water Management District, U.S. Department of Agriculture–Natural Resources Conservation Service, and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) routinely collect groundwater data from wells screened in the MRVA aquifer. The USGS and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers routinely collect data on river stage and discharge for the rivers overlying the MRVA aquifer. The potentiometric surface map for 2016 was created using existing data as part of the USGS Water Availability and Use Science Program to support investigations that characterize the MRVA aquifer. Sufficient groundwater-altitude data were available to create a potentiometric-surface map for spring 2016 for about 81 percent of the aquifer area. The potentiometric contours ranged from 10 to 340 feet. The regional direction of groundwater flow in the MRVA aquifer was generally towards the south-southwest, except in areas of groundwater-altitude depressions, where groundwater flows into the depressions, and near rivers, where groundwater flow generally parallels the flow in the rivers. There are large depressions in the potentiometric surface of the MRVA aquifer in the lower half of the Cache region and in most of the Grand Prairie and Delta regions.

Arkansas, Illinois, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississip↗

USGS2022

Framework for the development of the Columbia River mainstem fish tissue and water quality monitoring program - Bonneville Dam to Canadian border

The Columbia River provides important cultural, economic, and ecological services to a significant portion of the United States. Anadromous and resident fish species and other wildlife are integrated into the cultural traditions of all Tribes in the Columbia River Basin. Salmon, lamprey, sturgeon, and resident fish are an integral part of Tribal religion, culture, and physical sustenance. Despite concerns about the effect of contaminants on the aquatic ecosystem, the disproportionate effects of contaminants on members of Tribal sovereignties, and the known effects of contaminants on species protected under the Endangered Species Act, efforts to address toxic chemical pollution in the Columbia River have been limited. The lack of a dedicated contaminant monitoring program impedes evaluation and decision making regarding the health of the Columbia River ecosystem, as well as human health for Tribal members and others that consume fish and other biota from the Columbia River. The purpose of this framework is to provide guidance for the development of a long-term program (Program) that provides the basis for assessing the status and trends of contaminants in fish, sediment, water, and invertebrates along the 962-kilometer length of the Columbia River from the Bonneville Dam upriver to the Canadian Border (Figure ES1). This framework will focus on four persistent and bioaccumulative classes of toxic contaminants: • Mercury • Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) • Dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) • Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) Media of interest in this framework include anadromous and resident fish, sediment, invertebrates, biofilm, and surface water. Future consideration of additional contaminants could include pesticides, per or poly-fluoroalkyl substances, 6PPD-quinone, and contaminants of emerging concern (CECs), which comprises a diverse group of anthropogenic chemicals that include thousands of pharmaceuticals, hormones, illicit drugs, new pesticides, personal care products, flame retardants, artificial sweeteners, perfluorinated compounds, disinfection byproducts, ultraviolet filters, and other industrial chemicals. This framework includes the vision, goals, and objectives for the Program. The vision for the Program is that it will provide the basis for assessing the status and trends of contaminants in the Columbia River to guide ecosystem recovery resulting in clean, healthy fish for current and future generations . The goals of the Program are to 1) conduct long-term monitoring to assess the spatial and temporal status and trends of toxics in fish, water, sediment, and other potential media in the Columbia River mainstem, from Bonneville Dam to the Canadian Border in perpetuity, 2) stimulate conversion of science into action by providing information to facilitate future decision making that improves ecosystem function and reduces contaminants in all levels of the food chain, and 3) adaptively manage the Program to address new key questions, incorporate new and emerging science advancements, and respond to community information needs. To facilitate achieving these goals, this framework provides details on technical planning; community outreach and engagement; and adaptive management to promote understanding and improve future decision making over the long-term, including updating the Program with new and emerging science and community needs. Additionally, data associated with the Program will be made available to the public through the EPA Water Quality Exchange (https://www.epa.gov/waterdata/water-quality-data). Documents and other materials associated with the Program can be accessed via a website hosted by Yakama Nation Fisheries (https://yakamafish-nsn.gov/restore/projects/columbia-river-mainstem- water-quality-monitoring-program). Although the Program is limited to the Columbia River upstream of the Bonneville Dam, collaboration with other entities that monitor contaminants in the Columbia River Basin, including the Columbia River estuary below Bonneville Dam, are also an important component of outreach. Our goal is to encourage efforts to ensure data comparability across programs and recognize that the growth and adaptive management of the Program considers basin-wide monitoring developments.

Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2017

Biological and ecological science for Montana—The Treasure State

Montana is rich in minerals, energy, and soils, as well as prairies, forests, mountains, rivers, lakes, fish, and wildlife. Many enterprises that drive the economy are based on natural resources, including tourism, hunting, fishing, agriculture, and energy development. The outdoor-recreation economy alone supports 64,000 Montana jobs and generates nearly \$6 billion each year in economic activity.

Montana↗

USGS2000

Strategic science plan Salton Sea restoration project

The Salton Sea is an ecosystem in peril. Its prehistory consists of a series of intermittent lakes dependent on infrequent flooding of the Colorado River, while the modern Salton Sea originated from the desire to harness the flow of the Colorado River for irrigation. What began as an accident of this attempt is now a permanent inland sea supported by wastewater and agricultural drainage rather than Colorado River flood flows. However, environmental degradation is challenging the ability of the Sea to sustain the biological components that society has learned to value as characteristics of this waterbody. Increasing salinity and increasing frequency and magnitude of wildlife losses indicate the Sea is under severe environmental stress. The Salton Sea Restoration Project originated to reverse this degradation, to stabilize fluctuating water levels, and to provide a permanent waterbody that sustains values of the human society that uses it. The project foundation is provided by Public Law (PL) 102-575, passed by Congress in 1992. PL 102-575 directs the Secretary of the Interior to "conduct a research project for the development of a method or combination of methods to reduce and control salinity, provide endangered species habitat, enhance fisheries, and protect human recreational values . . . in the area of the Salton Sea." That PL was followed by the Salton Sea Reclamation Act of 1998 (PL 105-372), which directs the Secretary of the Interior to "complete all studies, including, but not limited to environmental and other reviews, of the feasibility and benefit-cost of various options that permit the continued use of the Salton Sea."

Report↗

USGS2012

A meeting of the waters: interdisciplinary challenges and opportunities in tidal rivers

At the interface of estuarine tides and freshwater rivers lie wetland and aquatic ecosystems, which experience dramatic effects of sea level rise. There, nontidal channels and riparian floodplains are transforming into tidal ecosystems, and tidal freshwater ecosystems are receiving increasing salinity. These river-floodplain systems have both fluvial characteristics, including meandering channels and expansive floodplain forests, and estuarine characteristics, including tides and intertidal wetlands [see Barendregt et al., 2009; Conner et al., 2007, and references therein]. Because tidal rivers lie at the disciplinary divide between fluvial and estuarine science, a knowledge gap has developed in scientists' understanding of the geomorphic and biogeochemical response of these environments to sea level rise, climate change, and anthropogenically driven variations in watershed exports.

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union↗

USGS2009

Integrating scientific knowledge into large-scale restoration programs: the CALFED Bay-Delta Program experience

Integrating science into resource management activities is a goal of the CALFED Bay-Delta Program, a multi-agency effort to address water supply reliability, ecological condition, drinking water quality, and levees in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta of northern California. Under CALFED, many different strategies were used to integrate science, including interaction between the research and management communities, public dialogues about scientific work, and peer review. This paper explores ways science was (and was not) integrated into CALFED's management actions and decision systems through three narratives describing different patterns of scientific integration and application in CALFED. Though a collaborative process and certain organizational conditions may be necessary for developing new understandings of the system of interest, we find that those factors are not sufficient for translating that knowledge into management actions and decision systems. We suggest that the application of knowledge may be facilitated or hindered by (1) differences in the objectives, approaches, and cultures of scientists operating in the research community and those operating in the management community and (2) other factors external to the collaborative process and organization.

Environmental Science and Policy↗

USGS2013

U.S. Geological Survey science for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative: 2011 annual report

This is the fourth report produced by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI) to detail annual work activities. In FY2011, there were 37 ongoing, completed, or new projects conducted under the five major multi-disciplinary science and technical-assistance activities: (1) Baseline Synthesis, (2) Targeted Monitoring and Research, (3) Data and Information Management, (4) Integration and Coordination, and (5) Decisionmaking and Evaluation. The four new work activities were (1) development of the Western Energy Citation Clearinghouse, a Web-based energy-resource database of references for literature and on-line resources focused on energy development and its effects on natural resources; (2) a study to support the Sublette County Conservation District in ascertaining potential water-quality impacts to the New Fork River from energy development in the Pinedale Anticline Project Area; (3) a study to test the efficacy of blending high-frequency temporal data provided by Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors and high-resolution Landsat data for providing the fine-resolution data required to evaluate habitat responses to management activities at the landscape level; and (4) a study to examine the seasonal water chemistry of Muddy Creek, including documenting salinity patterns and providing a baseline for assessing potential effects of energy and other development on water quality in the Muddy Creek watershed. Two work activities were completed in FY2011: (1) the assessment of rancher perceptions of energy development in Southwest Wyoming and (2) mapping aspen stands and conifer encroachment using classification and regression tree (CART) analysis for effectiveness monitoring. The USGS continued to compile data, develop geospatial products, and upgrade Web-based products in support of both individual and overall WLCI efforts, including (1) ranking and prioritizing proposed conservation projects, (2) developing the WLCI integrated assessment, (3) developing the WLCI 5-year Conservation Action Plan, and (4) continuing to upgrade the content and improve the functionality of the WLCI Web site. For the WLCI FY2012 annual report, a decision was made to greatly reduce the overall length of the annual report, which will be accomplished by simplifying the report format and focusing on the take-home messages of each work activity for WLCI partners.

Wyoming↗

USGS2012

Perils of correlating CUSUM-transformed variables to infer ecological relationships (Breton et al. 2006; Glibert 2010)

We comment on a nonstandard statistical treatment of time-series data first published by Breton et al. (2006) in Limnology and Oceanography and, more recently, used by Glibert (2010) in Reviews in Fisheries Science. In both papers, the authors make strong inferences about the underlying causes of population variability based on correlations between cumulative sum (CUSUM) transformations of organism abundances and environmental variables. Breton et al. (2006) reported correlations between CUSUM-transformed values of diatom biomass in Belgian coastal waters and the North Atlantic Oscillation, and between meteorological and hydrological variables. Each correlation of CUSUM-transformed variables was judged to be statistically significant. On the basis of these correlations, Breton et al. (2006) developed "the first evidence of synergy between climate and human-induced river-based nitrate inputs with respect to their effects on the magnitude of spring Phaeocystis colony blooms and their dominance over diatoms."

Limnology and Oceanography↗

USGS2026

Prioritizing resource protection and understanding potential susceptibility of springs to surficial changes in a low-temperature geothermal system

Geothermal systems are vulnerable to changes in water budget and composition, requiring science-based management. This study uses a dataset of spring water temperatures, time series of groundwater residence time tracers (tritium and carbon-14), and stable isotopes of water to understand geothermal flow in a low-temperature geothermal system in north west Colorado, United States (Steamboat Springs). The geothermal system is bisected by the Yampa River, necessitating a stream mass balance approach to quantify total discharge. Time series analysis of water temperature data provides a ranked list of features more susceptible to surficial changes, which is corroborated using time series of tritium which indicate spatially distinct patterns of mixing between modern and pre-modern groundwater. All springs contain a portion of pre-modern groundwater that is thousands to tens of thousands of years old, a period coinciding with melting of extensive Pleistocene glaciers that was likely one of the recharge sources to the geothermal system. Stream mass balance indicates that greater than 80% of the total geothermal discharge is derived from diffuse or small springs, highlighting the extensive nature of the geothermal outflow zone and the association with local geologic structures. This study provides baseline data to support management of the Steamboat Springs geothermal system and indicates the utility of these approaches in developing science-based geothermal management.

Colorado↗

USGS2024

Estimating lithium concentrations in groundwater used as drinking water for the conterminous United States

Lithium (Li) concentrations in drinking-water supplies are not regulated in the United States; however, Li is included in the 2022 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency list of unregulated contaminants for monitoring by public water systems. Li is used pharmaceutically to treat bipolar disorder, and studies have linked its occurrence in drinking water to human-health outcomes. An extreme gradient boosting model was developed to estimate geogenic Li in drinking-water supply wells throughout the conterminous United States. The model was trained using Li measurements from ∼13,500 wells and predictor variables related to its natural occurrence in groundwater. The model predicts the probability of Li in four concentration classifications, ≤4 μg/L, >4 to ≤10 μg/L, >10 to ≤30 μg/L, and >30 μg/L. Model predictions were evaluated using wells held out from model training and with new data and have an accuracy of 47–65%. Important predictor variables include average annual precipitation, well depth, and soil geochemistry. Model predictions were mapped at a spatial resolution of 1 km 2 and represent well depths associated with public- and private-supply wells. This model was developed by hydrologists and public-health researchers to estimate Li exposure from drinking water and compare to national-scale human-health data for a better understanding of dose–response to low (<30 μg/L) concentrations of Li.

conterminous United States↗

USGS2010

Geographic information system datasets of regolith-thickness data, regolith-thickness contours, raster-based regolith thickness, and aquifer-test and specific-capacity data for the Lost Creek Designated Ground Water Basin, Weld, Adams, and Arapahoe Counties, Colorado

These datasets were compiled in support of U.S. Geological Survey Scientific-Investigations Report 2010-5082-Hydrogeology and Steady-State Numerical Simulation of Groundwater Flow in the Lost Creek Designated Ground Water Basin, Weld, Adams, and Arapahoe Counties, Colorado. The datasets were developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Lost Creek Ground Water Management District and the Colorado Geological Survey. The four datasets are described as follows and methods used to develop the datasets are further described in Scientific-Investigations Report 2010-5082: (1) ds507_regolith_data: This point dataset contains geologic information concerning regolith (unconsolidated sediment) thickness and top-of-bedrock altitude at selected well and test-hole locations in and near the Lost Creek Designated Ground Water Basin, Weld, Adams, and Arapahoe Counties, Colorado. Data were compiled from published reports, consultant reports, and from lithologic logs of wells and test holes on file with the U.S. Geological Survey Colorado Water Science Center and the Colorado Division of Water Resources. (2) ds507_regthick_contours: This dataset consists of contours showing generalized lines of equal regolith thickness overlying bedrock in the Lost Creek Designated Ground Water Basin, Weld, Adams, and Arapahoe Counties, Colorado. Regolith thickness was contoured manually on the basis of information provided in the dataset ds507_regolith_data. (3) ds507_regthick_grid: This dataset consists of raster-based generalized thickness of regolith overlying bedrock in the Lost Creek Designated Ground Water Basin, Weld, Adams, and Arapahoe Counties, Colorado. Regolith thickness in this dataset was derived from contours presented in the dataset ds507_regthick_contours. (4) ds507_welltest_data: This point dataset contains estimates of aquifer transmissivity and hydraulic conductivity at selected well locations in the Lost Creek Designated Ground Water Basin, Weld, Adams, and Arapahoe Counties, Colorado. This dataset also contains hydrologic information used to estimate transmissivity from specific capacity at selected well locations. Data were compiled from published reports, consultant reports, and from well-test records on file with the U.S. Geological Survey Colorado Water Science Center and the Colorado Division of Water Resources.

Data Series↗

USGS2008

Fort Collins Science Center: Fiscal Year 2007 Accomplishments

In Fiscal Year 2007 (FY07), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Fort Collins Science Center (FORT) continued research vital to U.S. Department of the Interior science and management needs and associated USGS programmatic goals. FORT work also supported the science needs of other government agencies as well as private cooperators. Specifically, FORT scientific research and technical assistance focused on client and partner needs and goals in the areas of biological information management, fisheries and aquatic systems, invasive species, status and trends of biological resources, terrestrial ecosystems, and wildlife resources. In addition, FORT's 5-year strategic plan was refined to incorporate focus areas identified in the USGS strategic science plan, including ecosystem-landscape analysis, global climate change, and energy and mineral resource development. As a consequence, several science projects initiated in FY07 were either entirely new research dor amplifications of existing work. Highlights of FORT project accomplishments are described below under the USGS science program with which each task is most closely associated. The work of FORT's 6 branches (Aquatic Systems and Technology Applications, Ecosystem Dynamics, Information Science, Invasive Species Science, Policy Analysis and Science Assistance, and Species and Habitats of Federal Interest) often involves major partnerships with other agencies or cooperation with other USGS disciplines (Geology, Geography, Water Resources) and the Geospatial Information Office.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2023

Ancient infrastructure offers sustainable agricultural solutions to dryland farming

For 1000 years, human populations in dryland regions of the North American Southwest (NAS) extensively constructed diverse forms of agricultural infrastructure, including canals, linear rock alignments, check dams, stock ponds, and other earthworks and rock structures. The long-term hydrological impacts of these and the demographic and socio-political drivers of construction and maintenance have yet to be fully documented or vetted. This paper summarizes existing knowledge attained from the United Stated portion of the NAS, but a lot is still unknown about Northwest Mexico. There remain outstanding questions related to understanding how ancient agriculture might improve modern adaptability and resilience. The detailed ecological and topographical variability of this arid landscape illustrates the essential need for infrastructure in maintaining water and managing the impacts of climate change on the hydrological cycle. We describe pros and cons of different types of infrastructure and examine socio-environmental trade-offs between robustness and vulnerability produced by reliance on infrastructure, drawing from existing literature to examine timescales longer than a human lifespan. The development of historically-informed management approaches to increase dryland climate resilience benefits from incorporating constraints and opportunities mediated by past landscape modifications. We present a plan for leveraging existing knowledge, available science, and potential, to extend our knowledge base and further explore causal relationships.

Book chapter↗

USGS2010

EAARL Coastal Topography-Chandeleur Islands, Louisiana, 2010: Bare Earth

These remotely sensed, geographically referenced elevation measurements of lidar-derived bare-earth (BE) and submerged topography datasets were produced collaboratively by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, St. Petersburg, FL, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Wallops Flight Facility, VA. This project provides highly detailed and accurate datasets of a portion of the Chandeleur Islands, acquired March 3, 2010. The datasets are made available for use as a management tool to research scientists and natural-resource managers. An innovative airborne lidar instrument originally developed at the NASA Wallops Flight Facility, and known as the Experimental Advanced Airborne Research Lidar (EAARL), was used during data acquisition. The EAARL system is a raster-scanning, waveform-resolving, green-wavelength (532-nanometer) lidar designed to map near-shore bathymetry, topography, and vegetation structure simultaneously. The EAARL sensor suite includes the raster-scanning, water-penetrating full-waveform adaptive lidar, a down-looking red-green-blue (RGB) digital camera, a high-resolution multispectral color-infrared (CIR) camera, two precision dual-frequency kinematic carrier-phase GPS receivers, and an integrated miniature digital inertial measurement unit, which provide for sub-meter georeferencing of each laser sample. The nominal EAARL platform is a twin-engine Cessna 310 aircraft, but the instrument may be deployed on a range of light aircraft. A single pilot, a lidar operator, and a data analyst constitute the crew for most survey operations. This sensor has the potential to make significant contributions in measuring sub-aerial and submarine coastal topography within cross-environmental surveys. Elevation measurements were collected over the survey area using the EAARL system, and the resulting data were then processed using the Airborne Lidar Processing System (ALPS), a custom-built processing system developed in a NASA-USGS collaboration. ALPS supports the exploration and processing of lidar data in an interactive or batch mode. Modules for presurvey flight-line definition, flight-path plotting, lidar raster and waveform investigation, and digital camera image playback have been developed. Processing algorithms have been developed to extract the range to the first and last significant return within each waveform. ALPS is used routinely to create maps that represent submerged or sub-aerial topography. Specialized filtering algorithms have been implemented to determine the 'bare earth' under vegetation from a point cloud of last return elevations. For more information about similar projects, please visit the Decision Support for Coastal Science and Management website.

Data Series↗

USGS1984

The use of geologic and seismologic information to reduce earthquake Hazards in California

Five examples illustrate how geologic and seismologic information can be used to reduce the effects of earthquakes Included are procedures for anticipating damage to critical facilities, preparing, adopting, or implementing seismic safety studies, plans, and programs, retrofitting highway bridges, regulating development in areas subject to fault-rupture, and strengthening or removing unreinforced masonry buildings. The collective effect of these procedures is to improve the public safety, health, and welfare of individuals and their communities. ?? 1984 Springer-Verlag New York Inc.

Environmental Geology and Water Sciences↗

USGS2024

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in drinking water in Southeast Los Angeles: Industrial legacy and environmental justice

Per - and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are persistent chemicals of increasing concern to human health. PFAS contamination in water systems has been linked to a variety of sources including hydrocarbon fire suppression activities, industrial and military land uses, agricultural applications of biosolids, and consumer products. To assess PFAS in California tap water, we collected 60 water samples from inside homes in four different geographic regions, both urban and rural. We selected mostly small water systems with known history of industrial chemical or pesticide contamination and that served socioeconomically disadvantaged communities. Thirty percent of the tap water samples (18) had a detection of at least one of the 32 targeted PFAS and most detections (89 %) occurred in heavily industrialized Southeast Los Angeles (SELA). The residents of SELA are predominately Latino and low-income. Concentrations of perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (PFOS) ranged from 6.8 to 13.6 ng/L and 9.4–17.8 ng/L, respectively in SELA and were higher than State (PFOA: 0.007 ng/L; PFOS: 1.0 ng/L) and national health-based goals (zero). To look for geographic patterns, we mapped potential sources of PFAS contamination, such as chrome plating facilities, airports, landfills, and refineries, located near the SELA water systems; consistent with the multiple potential sources in the area, no clear spatial associations were observed. The results indicate the importance of systematic testing of PFAS in tap water, continued development of PFAS regulatory standards and advisories for a greater number of compounds, improved drinking-water treatments to mitigate potential health threats to communities, especially in socioeconomically disadvantaged and industrialized areas.

California↗

USGS2012

Vulnerability of recently recharged groundwater in principal aquifers of the United States to nitrate contamination

Recently recharged water (defined here as <60 years old) is generally the most vulnerable part of a groundwater resource to nonpoint-source nitrate contamination. Understanding at the appropriate scale the interactions of natural and anthropogenic controlling factors that influence nitrate occurrence in recently recharged groundwater is critical to support best management and policy decisions that are often made at the aquifer to subaquifer scale. New logistic regression models were developed using data from the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) program and National Water Information System for 17 principal aquifers of the U.S. to identify important source, transport, and attenuation factors that control nonpoint source nitrate concentrations greater than relative background levels in recently recharged groundwater and were used to predict the probability of detecting elevated nitrate in areas beyond the sampling network. Results indicate that dissolved oxygen, crops and irrigated cropland, fertilizer application, seasonally high water table, and soil properties that affect infiltration and denitrification are among the most important factors in predicting elevated nitrate concentrations. Important differences in controlling factors and spatial predictions were identified in the principal aquifer and national-scale models and support the conclusion that similar spatial scales are needed between informed groundwater management and model development.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2011

Simulated changes in salinity in the York and Chickahominy Rivers from projected sea-level rise in Chesapeake Bay

As a result of climate change and variability, sea level is rising throughout the world, but the rate along the east coast of the United States is higher than the global mean rate. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the City of Newport News, Virginia, conducted a study to evaluate the effects of possible future sea-level rise on the salinity front in two tributaries to Chesapeake Bay, the York River, and the Chickahominy/James River estuaries. Numerical modeling was used to represent sea-level rise and the resulting hydrologic effects. Estuarine models for the two tributaries were developed and model simulations were made by use of the Three-Dimensional Hydrodynamic-Eutrophication Model (HEM-3D), developed by the Virginia Institute of Marine Science. HEM-3D was used to simulate tides, tidal currents, and salinity for Chesapeake Bay, the York River and the Chickahominy/James River. The three sea-level rise scenarios that were evaluated showed an increase of 30, 50, and 100 centimeters (cm). Model results for both estuaries indicated that high freshwater river flow was effective in pushing the salinity back toward Chesapeake Bay. Model results indicated that increases in mean salinity will greatly alter the existing water-quality gradients between brackish water and freshwater. This will be particularly important for the freshwater part of the Chickahominy River, where a drinking-water-supply intake for the City of Newport News is located. Significant changes in the salinity gradients for the York River and Chickahominy/James River estuaries were predicted for the three sea-level rise scenarios. When a 50-cm sea-level rise scenario on the York River during a typical year (2005) was used, the model simulation showed a salinity of 15 parts per thousand (ppt) at river kilometer (km) 39. During a dry year (2002), the same salinity (15 ppt) was simulated at river km 45, which means that saltwater was shown to migrate 6 km farther upstream during a dry year than a typical year. The same was true of the Chickahominy River for a 50-cm sea-level rise scenario but to a greater extent; a salinity of 4 ppt was simulated at river km 13 during a typical year and at river km 28 during a dry year, indicating that saltwater migrated 15 km farther upstream during a dry year. Near a drinking-water intake on the Chickahominy River, for a dry year, salinity is predicted to more than double for all three sea-level rise scenarios, relative to a typical year. During a typical year at this location, salinity is predicted to increase to 0.006, 0.07, and more than 2 ppt for the 30-, 50-, and 100-cm rise scenarios, respectively.

Virginia↗