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USGS2013

Simulations of groundwater flow, transport, and age in Albuquerque, New Mexico, for a study of transport of anthropogenic and natural contaminants (TANC) to public-supply wells

Vulnerability to contamination from manmade and natural sources can be characterized by the groundwater-age distribution measured in a supply well and the associated implications for the source depths of the withdrawn water. Coupled groundwater flow and transport models were developed to simulate the transport of the geochemical age-tracers carbon-14, tritium, and three chlorofluorocarbon species to public-supply wells in Albuquerque, New Mexico. A separate, regional-scale simulation of transport of carbon-14 that used the flow-field computed by a previously documented regional groundwater flow model was calibrated and used to specify the initial concentrations of carbon-14 in the local-scale transport model. Observations of the concentrations of each of the five chemical species, in addition to water-level observations and measurements of intra-borehole flow within a public-supply well, were used to calibrate parameters of the local-scale groundwater flow and transport models. The calibrated groundwater flow model simulates the mixing of “young” groundwater, which entered the groundwater flow system after 1950 as recharge at the water table, with older resident groundwater that is more likely associated with natural contaminants. Complexity of the aquifer system in the zone of transport between the water table and public-supply well screens was simulated with a geostatistically generated stratigraphic realization based upon observed lithologic transitions at borehole control locations. Because effective porosity was simulated as spatially uniform, the simulated age tracers are more efficiently transported through the portions of the simulated aquifer with relatively higher simulated hydraulic conductivity. Non-pumping groundwater wells with long screens that connect aquifer intervals having different hydraulic heads can provide alternate pathways for contaminant transport that are faster than the advective transport through the aquifer material. Simulation of flow and transport through these wells requires time discretization that adequately represents periods of pumping and non-pumping. The effects of intra-borehole flow are not fully represented in the simulation because it employs seasonal stress periods, which are longer than periods of pumping and non-pumping. Further simulations utilizing daily pumpage data and model stress periods may help quantify the relative effects of intra-borehole versus advective aquifer flow on the transport of contaminants near the public-supply wells. The fraction of young water withdrawn from the studied supply well varies with simulated pumping rates due to changes in the relative contributions to flow from different aquifer intervals. The advective transport of dissolved solutes from a known contaminant source to the public-supply wells was simulated by using particle-tracking. Because of the transient groundwater flow field, scenarios with alternative contaminant release times result in different simulated-particle fates, most of which are withdrawn from the aquifer at wells that are between the source and the studied supply well. The relatively small effective porosity required to simulate advective transport from the simulated contaminant source to the studied supply well is representative of a preferential pathway and not the predominant aquifer effective porosity that was estimated by the calibration of the model to observed chemical-tracer concentrations.

New Mexico↗

USGS2009

Simulation of the Regional Ground-Water-Flow System and Ground-Water/Surface-Water Interaction in the Rock River Basin, Wisconsin

A regional, two-dimensional, areal ground-water-flow model was developed to simulate the ground-water-flow system and ground-water/surface-water interaction in the Rock River Basin. The model was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Rock River Coalition. The objectives of the regional model were to improve understanding of the ground-water-flow system and to develop a tool suitable for evaluating the effects of potential regional water-management programs. The computer code GFLOW was used because of the ease with which the model can simulate ground-water/surface-water interactions, provide a framework for simulating regional ground-water-flow systems, and be refined in a stepwise fashion to incorporate new data and simulate ground-water-flow patterns at multiple scales. The ground-water-flow model described in this report simulates the major hydrogeologic features of the modeled area, including bedrock and surficial aquifers, ground-water/surface-water interactions, and ground-water withdrawals from high-capacity wells. The steady-state model treats the ground-water-flow system as a single layer with hydraulic conductivity and base elevation zones that reflect the distribution of lithologic groups above the Precambrian bedrock and a regionally significant confining unit, the Maquoketa Formation. In the eastern part of the Basin where the shale-rich Maquoketa Formation is present, deep ground-water flow in the sandstone aquifer below the Maquoketa Formation was not simulated directly, but flow into this aquifer was incorporated into the GFLOW model from previous work in southeastern Wisconsin. Recharge was constrained primarily by stream base-flow estimates and was applied uniformly within zones guided by regional infiltration estimates for soils. The model includes average ground-water withdrawals from 1997 to 2006 for municipal wells and from 1997 to 2005 for high-capacity irrigation, industrial, and commercial wells. In addition, the model routes tributary base flow through the river network to the Rock River. The parameter-estimation code PEST was linked to the GFLOW model to select the combination of parameter values best able to match more than 8,000 water-level measurements and base-flow estimates at 9 streamgages. Results from the calibrated GFLOW model show simulated (1) ground-water-flow directions, (2) ground-water/surface-water interactions, as depicted in a map of gaining and losing river and lake sections, (3) ground-water contributing areas for selected tributary rivers, and (4) areas of relatively local ground water captured by rivers. Ground-water flow patterns are controlled primarily by river geometries, with most river sections gaining water from the ground-water-flow system; losing sections are most common on the downgradient shore of lakes and reservoirs or near major pumping centers. Ground-water contributing areas to tributary rivers generally coincide with surface watersheds; however the locations of ground-water divides are controlled by the water table, whereas surface-water divides are controlled by surface topography. Finally, areas of relatively local ground water captured by rivers generally extend upgradient from rivers but are modified by the regional flow pattern, such that these areas tend to shift toward regional ground-water divides for relatively small rivers. It is important to recognize the limitations of this regional-scale model. Heterogeneities in subsurface properties and in recharge rates are considered only at a very broad scale (miles to tens of miles). No account is taken of vertical variations in properties or pumping rates, and no provision is made to account for stacked ground-water-flow systems that have different flow patterns at different depths. Small-scale flow systems (hundreds to thousands of feet) associated with minor water bodies are not considered; as a result, the model is not currently designed for simulating site-specifi

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2012

Simulation of streamflow, evapotranspiration, and groundwater recharge in the middle Nueces River watershed, south Texas, 1961-2008

The U.S. Geological Survey—in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Fort Worth District; City of Corpus Christi; Guadalupe–Blanco River Authority; San Antonio River Authority; and San Antonio Water System— configured, calibrated, and tested a watershed model for a study area consisting of about 7,726 square miles of the middle Nueces River watershed in south Texas. The purpose of the model is to contribute to the understanding of watershed processes and hydrologic conditions in the middle Nueces River watershed. The model simulates streamflow, evapotranspiration, and groundwater recharge by using a numerical representation of physical characteristics of the landscape and meteorological and streamflow data. Model simulations of streamflow, evapotranspiration, and groundwater recharge were performed for various periods of record depending upon available gaged data for input and comparison, starting as early as 1961. Because of the large size of the study area, the middle Nueces River watershed was divided into eight subwatersheds, and separate Hydrological Simulation Program—FORTRAN models were developed for each subwatershed. Simulation of the overall study area involved running simulations in downstream order. Output from the model was summarized by subwatershed, point locations, stream and reservoir reaches, and the Carrizo– Wilcox aquifer outcrop area. Four long-term U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations were used for streamflow model calibration and testing with data from 1990 to 2008. Monthly evaporation estimates from 2001 to 2008 and waterlevel data from 1961 to 2008 at Lake Corpus Christi also were used for model calibration. Additionally, evapotranspiration data for 2006–8 from a U.S. Geological Survey meteorological station in Medina County were used for calibration. Streamflow calibrations were considered poor to very good. The 2000–8 calibration results were characterized as good to very good for total flow volumes and for the volume of the highest 10 percent of daily flows. Calibration results for streamflow volumes of the lowest 50 percent of daily flows were considered poor. The daily streamflow calibration at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging station 08210000 Nueces River near Three Rivers, Tex., had the lowest (best) root mean square error, and U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging station 08194500 Nueces River near Tilden, Tex., had the highest root mean square error expressed as a percentage of the mean flow rate. The mean daily reservoir volume during 1961–2008 was 182,000 acre-feet. Simulated mean daily reservoir volume was within 9 percent of this computed volume. Selected results of the model include streamflow yields for the subwatersheds and water-balance information for the Carrizo–Wilcox aquifer outcrop area. For the entire model domain, the area-weighted mean streamflow yield from 1961 to 2008 was 1.12 inches/year. The mean annual rainfall on the outcrop area during the 1961–2008 simulation period was 21.7 inches. Of this rainfall, an annual mean of 20.1 inches (about 93 percent) was simulated as evapotranspiration, 1.2 inches (about 6 percent) was simulated as groundwater recharge, and 0.5 inches (about 2 percent) was simulated as surface runoff.

Texas↗

USGS2015

Effect of land-applied biosolids on surface-water nutrient yields and groundwater quality in Orange County, North Carolina

Land application of municipal wastewater biosolids is the most common method of biosolids management used in North Carolina and the United States. Biosolids have characteristics that may be beneficial to soil and plants. Land application can take advantage of these beneficial qualities, whereas disposal in landfills or incineration poses no beneficial use of the waste. Some independent studies and laboratory analysis, however, have shown that land-applied biosolids can pose a threat to human health and surface-water and groundwater quality. The effect of municipal biosolids applied to agriculture fields is largely unknown in relation to the delivery of nutrients, bacteria, metals, and contaminants of emerging concern to surface-water and groundwater resources. Therefore, the North Carolina Department of Environment and Natural Resources (NCDENR) collaborated with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) through the 319 Nonpoint Source Program to better understand the transport of nutrients and bacteria from biosolids application fields to groundwater and surface water and to provide a scientific basis for evaluating the effectiveness of the current regulations. The USGS conducted a paired agricultural watershed study in the Collins Creek and Cane Creek Reservoir watersheds in Orange County, North Carolina. Field activities were conducted from March 2011 through May 2013 at two field study sites, including biosolids field application sites owned by Orange County Water and Sewer Authority (OWASA) in the Collins Creek watershed and a background study site in the Cane Creek watershed that has no fields receiving biosolids applications. Samples of biosolids source material and soil were collected from the land-application fields for laboratory analyses. Soil samples were also collected from a background agricultural field in the Cane Creek watershed that has never received land-applied municipal biosolids. Shallow groundwater samples were collected quarterly from new monitoring wells installed by NCDENR along the edge of the biosolids land-application fields and a background agricultural field for laboratory analyses. Two surface-water monitoring sites were established on Collins Creek to compute continuous streamflow and collect discrete baseflow and stormwater runoff water-quality data upstream and downstream from the biosolids land-application fields. Surface water-quality samples were also collected for baseflow and stormwater runoff conditions at an existing USGS streamgage on Cane Creek to monitor water-quality conditions in the background study watershed. The study primarily focused on nutrients and bacteria; however, data for field properties and water-quality constituents, including metals, major ions, and contaminants of emerging concern (household-, industrial-, and agricultural-use compounds, pharmaceutical compounds, hormones, and antibiotics) also were collected and used in the analyses. There were no exceedances of the 10 elements with designated U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) ceiling concentrations for land-applied biosolids in any of the biosolids samples. Treatment processes and storage techniques used by OWASA are effective in eliminating Escherichia coli and fecal coliform bacteria from biosolids. Copper, molybdenum, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, and total phosphorus were elevated in the soil from biosolids land-application fields relative to the background field. The relative richness of these constituents in the biosolids land-application fields is consistent with biosolids being the source of the elevated concentrations given the relatively high concentrations of these constituents in the biosolids samples that were collected. Shallow groundwater in the transitional zone wells, which were located adjacent to and topographically downgradient from all the biosolids land-application fields, were found to be statistically different and had higher nitrate concentrations (medians greater than 12 milligrams per liter) than all the other wells sampled as part of the study. Surface-water nutrient concentrations and yields, primarily nitrate, were higher at the monitoring site on Collins Creek downstream from the biosolids land-application fields than the other study sites that drained watersheds without biosolids land application. The largest differences in concentrations between sites were measured at baseflow conditions, which indicate that the main cause of these differences, particularly between Cane Creek and the Collins Creek site downstream from the OWASA application fields, is related to nitrate contribution from the shallow groundwater. Contaminants of emerging concern were detected in approximately 40 percent of the laboratory analyses of the biosolids samples and more frequently in soil samples from the biosolids land-application fields (approximately 40 percent of laboratory analyses) relative to the soil samples from the background field (approximately 12 percent of laboratory analyses). However, contaminants of emerging concern detected in the laboratory analysis for this study do not appear to be good indicators of human-waste contaminants derived from land-applied biosolids in groundwater or surface-water because the number of detections and concentrations at the background wells and surface-water monitoring sites are similar to or higher than those at wells and monitoring sites adjacent to or downstream from the biosolids land-application fields. The data, analysis, and conclusions associated with this study can be used by regulatory agencies, resource managers, and wastewater-treatment operators to (1) better understand the quantity and characteristics of nutrients, bacteria, metals, and contaminants of emerging concern that are transported away from biosolids land-application fields to surface water and groundwater under current regulations for the purposes of establishing effective total maximum daily loads (TMDLs) and restoring impaired water resources, (2) assess how well existing regulations protect waters of the State and potentially recommend effective changes to regulations or land-application procedures, and (3) establish a framework for developing guidance on effective techniques for monitoring and regulatory enforcement of permitted biosolids land-application fields.

North Carolina↗

USGS2022

Distribution of streamflow, sediment, and nutrients entering Galveston Bay from the Trinity River, Texas, 2016–19

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Texas Water Development Board, collected streamflow and water-quality data at USGS monitoring stations in the lower Trinity River Basin from January 2016 to December 2019 to characterize streamflow, nutrients, and suspended sediment entering Galveston Bay from the Trinity River. Results from previous studies indicate that water from the main channel of the Trinity River is diverted into surrounding wetlands and water bodies and is stored or discharged directly into Galveston Bay through distributary channels in the delta. This study provides an assessment of the distribution of streamflow in the various channels that form the delta of the Trinity River to evaluate the effects of streamflow diversions on the eventual supply of freshwater, nutrients, and suspended sediment to Galveston Bay. Instantaneous streamflow data and continuous streamflow records from USGS monitoring stations in the delta of the Trinity River were used to quantify freshwater inflow into Galveston Bay and assess the distribution of streamflow in the lowermost reaches of the Trinity River Basin. In this report, periods in which releases from Lake Livingston caused a rise in streamflow farther downstream at USGS station 08067000 Trinity River at Liberty, Tex. (hereinafter referred to as the “Liberty site”) that did not exceed 20,000 cubic feet per second (ft 3 /s) are referred to as “low-flow events,” and periods in which streamflow at the Liberty site exceeded 20,000 ft 3 /s are referred to as “high-flow events.” During this study, it was estimated that only about 55 percent of the total water volume released from Lake Livingston was accounted for at USGS station 08067252 Trinity River at Wallisville, Tex. (hereinafter referred to as the “Wallisville site”), which is approximately 8 river miles upstream from where the Trinity River enters Galveston Bay. The difference in water volumes between what is released from Lake Livingston and what is measured at the Wallisville site is consistent with findings from previous studies and indicates that a large part of the volume released from Lake Livingston does not reach Galveston Bay through the main channel of the Trinity River. To assess the distribution of streamflow and estimate the amount of water diverted from the main channel of the Trinity River into distributary channels, instantaneous streamflow measurements were made at USGS station 08067230 Old River Lake near Wallisville, Tex. (hereinafter referred to as the “Old River Lake site”) and the Wallisville site during a range of hydrologic conditions. Results indicate that a large portion of the freshwater inflow was likely delivered to Galveston Bay through pathways other than the main channel of the Trinity River, including Old River Lake. When streamflow at the Liberty site, located upstream from the Wallisville site, exceeded approximately 40,000 ft 3 /s, Old River Lake and its network of hydrologically connected channels likely became the primary pathway for freshwater inflow entering Galveston Bay. Water quality was characterized from discrete samples collected during a range of hydrologic conditions at the Old River Lake site and the Wallisville site in order to evaluate the effects of streamflow diversions on the supply of suspended sediment and nutrients into Galveston Bay. Suspended-sediment concentrations were typically higher at the Wallisville site than at the Old River Lake site, likely because of lower water velocities at the Old River Lake site than at the Wallisville site; low water velocities allow suspended sediment to settle, thus reducing concentrations. Suspended-sediment loads were also typically higher at the Wallisville site than at the Old River Lake site during high-flow events. However, when streamflows at the Liberty site exceeded approximately 60,000 ft 3 /s, suspended-sediment loads were higher at the Old River Lake, which likely became the primary pathway for suspended-sediment delivery into Galveston Bay. Suspended-sediment concentrations and loads were computed at the Wallisville and Liberty sites for the duration of 11 hydrologic events representing different streamflows by using the regression equations developed for each monitoring station. Overall, approximately 25 percent of the total sediment load measured during events at the Liberty site was measured at the Wallisville site, indicating that only a portion of the suspended-sediment load from the Liberty site reached Galveston Bay through the main channel of the Trinity River during the measured events. Based on data from discrete samples, some of this sediment load was diverted into Old River Lake and associated distributary channels. Results from analysis of nutrient samples indicate that streamflow conditions affect the nitrogen concentrations in the delta of the Trinity River. At the Old River Lake site, nitrate plus nitrite and total dissolved nitrogen concentrations were typically lower during low-flow conditions than during high-flow events; low-flow conditions represent low-flow events or tidal-flow conditions (during low-flow conditions the streamflow at the Liberty site was less than 20,000 ft 3 /s). Lower concentrations of nitrate plus nitrite and total dissolved nitrogen at the Old River Lake site may be associated with various physical and biogeochemical processes, including the transformation and biological uptake of nitrate, nitrite, and other species of nitrogen resulting from extended water residence times and relatively small inputs of nitrogen from the upstream reaches of the Trinity River Basin. During high-flow events, the proportions of nitrogen species were similar among sites, indicating that the travel path through wetlands and channels surrounding Old River Lake likely does not affect the relative concentrations of the various nitrogen species present in freshwater inflow to Galveston Bay. Results from analysis of nutrient samples also indicate that the pathways for nutrient delivery from the Trinity River into Galveston Bay are dependent on event magnitude. When streamflows at the Liberty site were low (approximately 20,000 ft 3 /s), the main channel of the Trinity River was the primary pathway for nitrogen and phosphorus entering Galveston Bay. Once streamflow at the Liberty site exceeded 20,000 ft 3 /s, however, the contribution of nutrient loading through Old River Lake to Galveston Bay increased proportionally to the nutrient loading in the main channel, and when streamflow at the Liberty site exceeded approximately 50,000 ft 3 /s, Old River Lake likely became the primary pathway for nutrient delivery into Galveston Bay.

Texas↗

USGS2014

Evaluation of a mass-balance approach to determine consumptive water use in northeastern Illinois

A principal component of evaluating and managing water use is consumptive use. This is the portion of water withdrawn for a particular use, such as residential, which is evaporated, transpired, incorporated into products or crops, consumed by humans or livestock, or otherwise removed from the immediate water environment. The amount of consumptive use may be estimated by a water (mass)-balance approach; however, because of the difficulty of obtaining necessary data, its application typically is restricted to the facility scale. The general governing mass-balance equation is: Consumptive use = Water supplied - Return flows . This study explored a mass-balance field-based computation of consumptive use in a residential setting at the scale of a sanitary sewer service area (sewershed). In addition, the feasibility (cost and difficulty) and relative uncertainties (accuracies) associated with applying the approach at this scale were evaluated. The study was conducted during 2011–13 within a 3.5-square mile (mi 2 ) sewershed confined to a predominantly residential area of Elk Grove Village, Illinois. Following background evaluation of the geohydrologic setting, sewershed infrastructure, and possible components of supplied and returned water, the identified primary components were 1. public water deliveries by the Elk Grove Village Department of Public Works, 2. self-served groundwater withdrawals in an included unincorporated neighborhood with public sanitary sewer service, 3. return flows to the sanitary sewer system, and 4. direct return of water discharged from swimming pools to Salt Creek. Water volumes principally were reported for deliveries, measured for sanitary sewer returns by using an acoustic Doppler current-velocity meter, and estimated for domestic withdrawals and swimming pool discharges to storm sewers. All water volumes required some degree of estimation. Observation wells were installed adjacent to sewer pipelines (lines) to determine the depth of the water table relative to that of the sewer lines and to collect water samples for detection of optical brighteners, as they are routinely discharged as clotheswashing waste to sanitary sewers. These data provided qualitative information on gains (inflow and infiltration) and losses (exfiltration) of sewer flow by pipe leakage, which might otherwise not be considered in the sewer flow return measurements. Hydrographs of sewer flow also were evaluated to identify and estimate storm-associated inputs to sewer flow. The volume of sanitary sewer return flow (778 million gallons per year [Mgal/yr]) was determined to substantially exceed the volume of supplied water (566 Mgal/yr), thus, for this study setting, voiding the utility of the applied mass-balance approach for estimating consumptive water use. Mass-balance components, including sanitary sewer flow and supplied-water use, were estimated within reasonable limits of uncertainty. Evidence of a water table that is typically shallower than the area’s sewer lines, yet is sometimes depressed near more deeply buried sewer lines, suggests groundwater infiltration into the sewers contributes to the excess volume of return flow. Technical obstacles and project resources precluded accurate quantification of infiltration volumes and other gains and losses to sanitary sewer flow. As estimated from various simplified methods, a minimum of 26 percent of return flow measured in the sanitary sewer represented groundwater infiltration and stormwater inflow; separately, about 2 percent of return flow was estimated as inflow. On the basis of the alternative winter base-rate method, consumptive use in the sewershed was estimated as 13 percent, which compares favorably with that used by the State of Illinois for Lake Michigan allocation accounting (10 percent) and other States and Canadian Provinces in the Great Lakes region (generally 10-15 percent). The study also provided other findings considered useful to studies of water use and to performance evaluation of sanitary sewer infrastructure. In urban residential settings, the comparatively small volumes of nonpublic sources of water (self-supplied) and direct (nonsanitary) return flow potentially can be ignored in the estimation of consumptive use. An acoustic Doppler current-velocity meter can be used in sanitary sewers to accurately measure discharge and reasonably estimate storm-associated inflows. Hourly to daily patterns of water use can be readily identified and quantified in the return flow record for the sanitary sewers. Relative volumes of infiltration gains (and exfiltration losses) can be substantial, even in sewer systems of communities making significant investments in system upgrades to limit sewer line leakage. Monitoring of optical brighteners in groundwater (and potentially in sanitary sewer flow) can provide a useful means of identifying probable leakage from (and to) sewer lines. Accurate quantification of gains and losses to sanitary sewer flow at the sewershed scale will require additional research effort and technical advances. Under ideal conditions, accurate quantification of consumptive use at the sewershed scale by the described mass-balance approach might be possible. Under most prevailing conditions, quantification likely would be more costly and time consuming than that of the present study, given the freely contributed technical support of the host community and relatively appropriate conditions of the study area. Essentials to quantification of consumptive use are a fully cooperative community, storm and sanitary sewers that are separate, and newer sewer infrastructure and (or) a robust program for limiting infiltration, exfiltration, and inflow.

Illinois↗

USGS2016

Generalized sediment budgets of the Lower Missouri River, 1968–2014

Sediment budgets of the Lower Missouri River were developed in a study led by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. The scope of the study included the development of a long-term (post-impoundment, 1968–2014) average annual sediment budget and selected annual, monthly, and daily sediment budgets for a reach and period that adequate data were available. Included in the analyses were 31 main-stem and tributary stations of the Lower Missouri River and two Mississippi River stations—the Mississippi River below Grafton, Illinois, and the Mississippi River at St. Louis, Missouri. Long-term average annual suspended-sediment loads of Missouri River main-stem stations ranged from 0.33 million tons at the Missouri River at Yankton, South Dakota, station to 71.2 million tons at Missouri River at Hermann, Mo., station. Gaged tributary gains accounted for 9–36 percent of the local reach budgets and cumulative gaged tributary contributions accounted for 84 percent of the long-term average suspended-sediment load of the Missouri River at Hermann, Mo., station. Although the sediment budgets for seven defined main-stem reaches generally were incomplete—missing bedload, reach storage, and ungaged tributary contributions—the budget residuals (net result of sediment inputs and outputs) for six of the seven reaches ranged from -7.0 to 1.7 million tons, or from -9.2 to 4.0 percent of the reach output suspended-sediment load, and were within the 10 percent reported measurement error of annual suspended-sediment loads for large rivers. The remaining reach, downstream from Gavin’s Point Dam, extended from Yankton, S. Dak., to Sioux City, Iowa, and had a budget residual of -9.8 million tons, which was -88 percent of the suspended-sediment load at Sioux City. The Lower Missouri River reach from Omaha, Nebraska, to Nebraska City, Nebr., had periods of concurrent sediment data for each primary budget component with which to analyze and determine a suspended-sediment budget for selected annual, monthly, and daily time increments. The temporal changes in the cumulative annual budget residuals were poorly correlated with the comparatively steady 1968–2011 annual stage trends at the Missouri River at Nebraska City, Nebr., station. An accurate total sediment budget is developed by having concurrent data available for all primary suspended and bedload components for a reach of interest throughout a period. Such a complete budget, with concurrent record for suspended-sediment load and bedload components, is unavailable for any reach and period in the Lower Missouri River. The primary data gaps are in bedload data, and also in suspended-sediment gains and losses including ungaged tributary inputs and sediment storage. Bedload data gaps in the Missouri River Basin are much more prevalent than suspended-sediment data gaps, and the first step in the development of reach bedload budgets is the establishment of a standardized bedload monitoring program at main-stem stations. The temporal changes in flow-adjusted suspended-sediment concentrations analyzed at main-stem Missouri River stations indicated an overall downward change in concentrations between 1968 and 2014. Temporary declines in flow-adjusted suspended-sediment concentrations during and following large floods were evident but generally returned to near pre-flood values within about 6 months. Data uncertainties associated with the development of a sediment budget include uncertainties associated with the collection of suspended-sediment and bedload data and the computation of suspended-sediment loads. These uncertainties vary depending on the frequency of data collection, the variability of conditions being represented by the discrete samples, and the statistical approach to suspended-sediment load computations. The coefficients of variation of suspended-sediment loads of Missouri River tributary stations for 1968–2014 were greater, 75.0 percent, than the main-stem stations, 47.1 percent. The lower coefficient of variation at main-stem stations compared to tributaries, primarily is the result of the lower variability in streamflow and sediment discharge identified at main-stem stations. To obtain similar accuracy between suspended-sediment loads at main-stem and tributary stations, a longer period of record is required of the tributary stations. During 1968–2014, however, the Missouri River main-stem station record was much more complete (87 percent) than the tributary station record (28 percent).

Missouri River Basin↗

USGS2010

Approaches to highly parameterized inversion: A guide to using PEST for model-parameter and predictive-uncertainty analysis

Analysis of the uncertainty associated with parameters used by a numerical model, and with predictions that depend on those parameters, is fundamental to the use of modeling in support of decisionmaking. Unfortunately, predictive uncertainty analysis with regard to models can be very computationally demanding, due in part to complex constraints on parameters that arise from expert knowledge of system properties on the one hand (knowledge constraints) and from the necessity for the model parameters to assume values that allow the model to reproduce historical system behavior on the other hand (calibration constraints). Enforcement of knowledge and calibration constraints on parameters used by a model does not eliminate the uncertainty in those parameters. In fact, in many cases, enforcement of calibration constraints simply reduces the uncertainties associated with a number of broad-scale combinations of model parameters that collectively describe spatially averaged system properties. The uncertainties associated with other combinations of parameters, especially those that pertain to small-scale parameter heterogeneity, may not be reduced through the calibration process. To the extent that a prediction depends on system-property detail, its postcalibration variability may be reduced very little, if at all, by applying calibration constraints; knowledge constraints remain the only limits on the variability of predictions that depend on such detail. Regrettably, in many common modeling applications, these constraints are weak. Though the PEST software suite was initially developed as a tool for model calibration, recent developments have focused on the evaluation of model-parameter and predictive uncertainty. As a complement to functionality that it provides for highly parameterized inversion (calibration) by means of formal mathematical regularization techniques, the PEST suite provides utilities for linear and nonlinear error-variance and uncertainty analysis in these highly parameterized modeling contexts. Availability of these utilities is particularly important because, in many cases, a significant proportion of the uncertainty associated with model parameters-and the predictions that depend on them-arises from differences between the complex properties of the real world and the simplified representation of those properties that is expressed by the calibrated model. This report is intended to guide intermediate to advanced modelers in the use of capabilities available with the PEST suite of programs for evaluating model predictive error and uncertainty. A brief theoretical background is presented on sources of parameter and predictive uncertainty and on the means for evaluating this uncertainty. Applications of PEST tools are then discussed for overdetermined and underdetermined problems, both linear and nonlinear. PEST tools for calculating contributions to model predictive uncertainty, as well as optimization of data acquisition for reducing parameter and predictive uncertainty, are presented. The appendixes list the relevant PEST variables, files, and utilities required for the analyses described in the document.

Michigan↗

USGS2017

Analysis of the variability in ground-motion synthesis and inversion

In almost all past inversions of large-earthquake ground motions for rupture behavior, the goal of the inversion is to find the “best fitting” rupture model that predicts ground motions which optimize some function of the difference between predicted and observed ground motions. This type of inversion was pioneered in the linear-inverse sense by Olson and Apsel (1982), who minimized the square of the difference between observed and simulated motions (“least squares”) while simultaneously minimizing the rupture-model norm (by setting the null-space component of the rupture model to zero), and has been extended in many ways, one of which is the use of nonlinear inversion schemes such as simulated annealing algorithms that optimize some other misfit function. For example, the simulated annealing algorithm of Piatanesi and others (2007) finds the rupture model that minimizes a “cost” function which combines a least-squares and a waveform-correlation measure of misfit. All such inversions that look for a unique “best” model have at least three problems. (1) They have removed the null-space component of the rupture model—that is, an infinite family of rupture models that all fit the data equally well have been narrowed down to a single model. Some property of interest in the rupture model might have been discarded in this winnowing process. (2) Smoothing constraints are commonly used to yield a unique “best” model, in which case spatially rough rupture models will have been discarded, even if they provide a good fit to the data. (3) No estimate of confidence in the resulting rupture models can be given because the effects of unknown errors in the Green’s functions (“theory errors”) have not been assessed. In inversion for rupture behavior, these theory errors are generally larger than the data errors caused by ground noise and instrumental limitations, and so overfitting of the data is probably ubiquitous for such inversions. Recently, attention has turned to the inclusion of theory errors in the inversion process. Yagi and Fukahata (2011) made an important contribution by presenting a method to estimate the uncertainties in predicted large-earthquake ground motions due to uncertainties in the Green’s functions. Here we derive their result and compare it with the results of other recent studies that look at theory errors in a Bayesian inversion context particularly those by Bodin and others (2012), Duputel and others (2012), Dettmer and others (2014), and Minson and others (2014). Notably, in all these studies, the estimates of theory error were obtained from theoretical considerations alone; none of the investigators actually measured Green’s function errors. Large earthquakes typically have aftershocks, which, if their rupture surfaces are physically small enough, can be considered point evaluations of the real Green’s functions of the Earth. Here we simulate smallaftershock ground motions with (erroneous) theoretical Green’s functions. Taking differences between aftershock ground motions and simulated motions to be the “theory error,” we derive a statistical model of the sources of discrepancies between the theoretical and real Green’s functions. We use this model with an extended frequency-domain version of the time-domain theory of Yagi and Fukahata (2011) to determine the expected variance 2 τ caused by Green’s function error in ground motions from a larger (nonpoint) earthquake that we seek to model. We also differ from the above-mentioned Bayesian inversions in our handling of the nonuniqueness problem of seismic inversion. We follow the philosophy of Segall and Du (1993), who, instead of looking for a best-fitting model, looked for slip models that answered specific questions about the earthquakes they studied. In their Bayesian inversions, they inductively derived a posterior probability-density function (PDF) for every model parameter. We instead seek to find two extremal rupture models whose ground motions fit the data within the error bounds given by 2 τ , as quantified by using a chi-squared test described below. So, we can ask questions such as, “What are the rupture models with the highest and lowest average rupture speed consistent with the theory errors?” Having found those models, we can then say with confidence that the true rupture speed is somewhere between those values. Although the Bayesian approach gives a complete solution to the inverse problem, it is computationally demanding: Minson and others (2014) needed 1010 forward kinematic simulations to derive their posterior probability distribution. In our approach, only about107 simulations are needed. Moreover, in practical application, only a small set of rupture models may be needed to answer the relevant questions—for example, determining the maximum likelihood solution (achievable through standard inversion techniques) and the two rupture models bounding some property of interest. The specific property that we wish to investigate is the correlation between various rupturemodel parameters, such as peak slip velocity and rupture velocity, in models of real earthquakes. In some simulations of ground motions for hypothetical large earthquakes, such as those by Aagaard and others (2010) and the Southern California Earthquake Center Broadband Simulation Platform (Graves and Pitarka, 2015), rupture speed is assumed to correlate locally with peak slip, although there is evidence that rupture speed should correlate better with peak slip speed, owing to its dependence on local stress drop. We may be able to determine ways to modify Piatanesi and others’s (2007) inversion’s “cost” function to find rupture models with either high or low degrees of correlation between pairs of rupture parameters. We propose a cost function designed to find these two extremal models.

Open-File Report↗

USGS1979

Storm and flood of July 31-August 1, 1976, in the Big Thompson River and Cache la Poudre River basins, Larimer and Weld Counties, Colorado

PART A: Devastating flash floods swept through the canyon section of Larimer County in north-central Colorado during the night of July 31-August I, 1976, causing 139 deaths, 5 missing persons, and more than $35 million in total damages. The brunt of the storms occurred over the Big Thompson River basin between Drake and Estes Park with rainfall amounts as much as 12 inches being reported during the storm period. In the Cache la Poudre River basin to the north, a rainfall amount of 10 inches was reported for one locality while 6 inches fell over a widespread area near the central part of the basin. The storms developed when strong low-level easterly winds to the rear of a polar front pushed a moist, conditionally unstable airmass upslope into the Front Range of the Rocky Mountains. Orographic uplift released the convective instability, and light south-southeasterly winds at middle and upper levels allowed the storm complex to remain nearly stationary over the foothills for several hours. Minimal entrainment of relatively moist air at middle and upper levels, very low cloud bases, and a slightly tilted updraft structure contributed to a high precipitation efficiency. Intense rainfall began soon after 1900 MDT (Mountain Daylight Time) in the Big Thompson River and the North Fork Cache la Poudre River basins. A cumulative rainfall curve developed for Glen Comfort from radar data indicates that 7.5 inches of rain fell during the period 1930-2040 MDT on July 31. In the central part of the storm area west of Fort Collins, the heaviest rainfall began about 2200 MDT on July 31 and continued until 0100 MDT on August 1. Peak discharges were extremely large on many streams in the storm area-exceeding previously recorded maximum discharges at several locations. The peak discharge of the Big Thompson River at the gaging station at the canyon mouth, near Drake was 31,200 cubic feet per second or more than four times the previous maximum discharge of 7,600 cubic feet per second at the site during 88 years of flood history. At the gaging station on the North Fork Big Thompson River at Drake, the peak discharge on July 31 was 8,710 cubic feet per second as compared to the previous maximum discharge during 29 years of record of 1,290 cubic feet per second. Peak discharges for three small tributaries near the area of heaviest rainfall northeast of Estes Park exceeded previously recorded maximum discharges for basins of less than 4 square miles in Colorado. Stream velocities were rapid along the tributaries near the storm center and on the Big Thompson River in the canyon section, with average velocities of 20-25 feet per second being common. The flood crest on the Big Thompson River moved through the 7.7-mile reach between Drake and the canyon mouth in about 30 minutes for an average travel rate of 15 miles per hour, or about 23 feet per second. The peak discharge of the flood on the Big Thompson River at the canyon mouth exceeded the 100-year flood discharge for the site by a ratio of 1.8. Upstream in the Big Thompson River basin, the flood was even more rare being 3.8 times the estimated 100-year flood discharge at the site on the Big Thompson River just upstream from Drake. In the Cache la Poudre River basin, recurrence intervals were computed to be 100 years for the flood on Deadman Creek and 16 years for Rist Canyon and the Cache la Poudre River at the canyon mouth near Fort Collins. Although the rainfall and flood discharges were unusually large, they are not unprecedented for some areas along the eastern foothills and plains of Colorado. The May 1935 and June 1965 floods on some streams along the eastern plains greatly exceeded the 1976 flood peaks in the storm area. Prior floods on several other streams in the foothills have approximately equaled the 1976 peak discharges. PART B: Intense rainfall from the Big Thompson thunderstorm complex on the evening of July 31,1976, and the ensuing floods that evening and the fol

Professional Paper↗

USGS2025

Host responses and viral traits interact to shape the impacts of climate warming on highly pathogenic avian influenza in migratory waterfowl

Emerging infectious diseases pose threats to wildlife populations, as exemplified by recent outbreaks of avian influenza viruses in wild birds. Climate change can affect infection dynamics in wildlife through direct effects on pathogens (e.g., environmental decay rates) and changes to host ecology, including shifting migration patterns. Here, we adapt an existing mechanistic model that couples migration and infection to study how traits of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses contribute to HPAI outcomes in migratory waterfowl, then apply this model to explore potential impacts of climate change on HPAI dynamics. We find that the simulated impacts of HPAI on the host population under baseline climate conditions varied from no impact to 100% mortality, depending on viral traits. In most cases, traits related to transmission (i.e., contact rates, shedding rates) were more important for HPAI establishment probability, infection prevalence, and mortality than were other viral traits (e.g., environmental temperature sensitivity, cross-protective immunity). We then simulated the effects of climate change (i.e., altered temperature regimes) on HPAI dynamics both via viral environmental decay and via changes in bird migration phenology. In these simulations, we found that a 9-day advancement in spring migration timing increased the duration of HPAI outbreaks by increasing time birds spent at their breeding grounds, leading to higher mortality and fewer infections. In contrast, increased viral decay in warmer years had a smaller, but opposite impact. These patterns depended on the primary transmission mode of HPAI (i.e., direct vs. environmental) and its sensitivity to environmental temperatures. Together, these results suggest that climate change is likely to increase the impacts of HPAI on waterfowl populations if HPAI relies strongly on direct transmission and birds advance their spring migration. Further integrating host-viral co-evolution and other climatic changes (e.g., salinity, humidity) could provide more precise predictions of how HPAI dynamics could change in the future.

Alaska, California, Oregon↗

USGS2010

Methods for estimating flow-duration and annual mean-flow statistics for ungaged streams in Oklahoma

Flow statistics can be used to provide decision makers with surface-water information needed for activities such as water-supply permitting, flow regulation, and other water rights issues. Flow statistics could be needed at any location along a stream. Most often, streamflow statistics are needed at ungaged sites, where no flow data are available to compute the statistics. Methods are presented in this report for estimating flow-duration and annual mean-flow statistics for ungaged streams in Oklahoma. Flow statistics included the (1) annual (period of record), (2) seasonal (summer-autumn and winter-spring), and (3) 12 monthly duration statistics, including the 20th, 50th, 80th, 90th, and 95th percentile flow exceedances, and the annual mean-flow (mean of daily flows for the period of record). Flow statistics were calculated from daily streamflow information collected from 235 streamflow-gaging stations throughout Oklahoma and areas in adjacent states. A drainage-area ratio method is the preferred method for estimating flow statistics at an ungaged location that is on a stream near a gage. The method generally is reliable only if the drainage-area ratio of the two sites is between 0.5 and 1.5. Regression equations that relate flow statistics to drainage-basin characteristics were developed for the purpose of estimating selected flow-duration and annual mean-flow statistics for ungaged streams that are not near gaging stations on the same stream. Regression equations were developed from flow statistics and drainage-basin characteristics for 113 unregulated gaging stations. Separate regression equations were developed by using U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations in regions with similar drainage-basin characteristics. These equations can increase the accuracy of regression equations used for estimating flow-duration and annual mean-flow statistics at ungaged stream locations in Oklahoma. Streamflow-gaging stations were grouped by selected drainage-basin characteristics by using a k-means cluster analysis. Three regions were identified for Oklahoma on the basis of the clustering of gaging stations and a manual delineation of distinguishable hydrologic and geologic boundaries: Region 1 (western Oklahoma excluding the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles), Region 2 (north- and south-central Oklahoma), and Region 3 (eastern and central Oklahoma). A total of 228 regression equations (225 flow-duration regressions and three annual mean-flow regressions) were developed using ordinary least-squares and left-censored (Tobit) multiple-regression techniques. These equations can be used to estimate 75 flow-duration statistics and annual mean-flow for ungaged streams in the three regions. Drainage-basin characteristics that were statistically significant independent variables in the regression analyses were (1) contributing drainage area; (2) station elevation; (3) mean drainage-basin elevation; (4) channel slope; (5) percentage of forested canopy; (6) mean drainage-basin hillslope; (7) soil permeability; and (8) mean annual, seasonal, and monthly precipitation. The accuracy of flow-duration regression equations generally decreased from high-flow exceedance (low-exceedance probability) to low-flow exceedance (high-exceedance probability) . This decrease may have happened because a greater uncertainty exists for low-flow estimates and low-flow is largely affected by localized geology that was not quantified by the drainage-basin characteristics selected. The standard errors of estimate of regression equations for Region 1 (western Oklahoma) were substantially larger than those standard errors for other regions, especially for low-flow exceedances. These errors may be a result of greater variability in low flow because of increased irrigation activities in this region. Regression equations may not be reliable for sites where the drainage-basin characteristics are outside the range of values of independent vari

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2019

Comparison of groundwater-model construction methods, representations of glacial geology, model designs, and groundwater-model flow simulations within Elkhart County, Indiana

Automated data-processing methods allow hydrologists to efficiently incorporate digital well-record datasets into the construction of hydrostratigraphic frameworks for groundwater-flow models. The method selected to construct the hydrostratigraphic framework can affect the extent of geologic heterogeneity that can be included in the model. The detail generated from a hydrostratigraphic framework can affect groundwater simulation results. The effects of detail on model accuracy, groundwater-flow simulations, and particle-tracking simulations are described in this study. This report compares differences in hydrostratigraphic frameworks and results of groundwater models using (1) a method that incorporates more hydrologic judgment at the expense of using limited lithologic data and (2) a method that is more automated and uses all available lithologic data. The study additionally evaluates the effect of model discretization and inclusion of more (or less) geologic detail on simulation results. Two methods were used to create hydrostratigraphic frameworks of glacial deposits in the St. Joseph River Basin. One method, referred to as the subjective method, manually identifies stratigraphic boundaries using a sample of well logs from State databases and uses two-dimensional kriging to create three model layers of the study area. Indicator kriging is used to define aquifer extent in each layer. The second method, referred to as the objective method, uses three-dimensional kriging to automatically create a detailed heterogeneous model of the study area using all wells logs from the State database. The objective method increases detail in the vertical by greatly increasing the number of computer groundwater model layers from 3 to 30. In Elkhart County, Indiana, a previously published model represents the product of the subjective method, and a newly calibrated model of the same area represents the product of the objective method. An automated calibration procedure was used with the objective model (derived from the objective method) for Elkhart County. The two most-sensitive parameters for the Elkhart County objective model are horizontal hydraulic conductivity of the sand and the combined sand and gravel/gravel deposits. Vertical hydraulic conductivity of the fine-grained and intermediate-sized deposits could not be estimated, possibly indicating major flow paths are along a continuously connected series of sand and gravel deposits and not through a confining layer. The statistics measuring model calibration accuracy for the objective model were slightly better than statistics for the subjective model (model derived from the subjective method) of Elkhart County, but the hydraulic conductivities and flow rates for the two models were different. The mean absolute errors between simulated and measured groundwater levels are 2.04 and 2.16 feet for the objective and subjective models, respectively. Simulated seepage losses from and groundwater discharges to measured stream reaches in the objective model were evenly balanced in terms of over and under simulations of measured values; the subjective model tended to overpredict measured groundwater discharge to streams. The overprediction may be related to the 58 percent greater total inflow and outflow through the subjective model. The greater flow rate through the subjective model results from higher horizontal hydraulic conductivities in the subjective model than in the objective model. Horizontal hydraulic conductivity ranged from 23.9 to 111 feet per day in the objective model and generally ranged from 170 to 370 feet per day in the subjective model. The improvement in calibration statistics for the objective model relative to the subjective model may be from increased detail in how the objective model represents the distribution of fine- and coarse-grained deposits. The improvement also could be associated with the difference in methods used to represent the continuity of the confining unit. The effect of differences in horizontal hydraulic conductivity distributions between the two models for Elkhart County is evident in the groundwater-flow paths simulated by the objective and subjective models. At a withdrawal well location, the flow lines produced by the objective model indicate a wider contributing area than that for the subjective model. The discontinuous confining unit represented in the objective model provided the opportunity for groundwater flow to split into an upper and lower path. The split in flow simulated by the objective model at one location was independently supported by bromide concentrations in groundwater; the subjective model did not duplicate the split in flow.

Indiana↗

USGS1995

Simulated ground-water flow and sources of water in the Killbuck Creek Valley near Wooster, Wayne County, Ohio

The stratified-drift aquifer in the 3,000-ft (feet)-wide and 100-ft-deep buried valley of Killbuck Creek near Wooster in northeastern Ohio was studied. The stratified drift with adjacent sandstone and shale bedrock produce a system of ground-water flow representative of the western part of the glaciated north-eastern United States. The stratified-drift aquifer is an excellent source of water for municipal and industrial wells. The aquifer is recharged locally by water from precipitation on the valley floor and uplands, by infiltration from streams, and by lateral flow to the valley from the uplands. As a result, the aquifer is vulnerable to surface or subsurface spills of contaminants in the valley or the adjacent uplands. Quality of water in the stratified drift is affected by influx of water from bedrock lateral to or beneath the valley. This influx is controlled, in part, by the pumping stress placed on the stratified-drift aquifer. Hydrogeologic and aqueous-geochemical data were analyzed to establish the framework necessary for stead-state and transient simulations of ground-water flow in stratified drift and bedrock with a three-layer ground-water-flow model. A new model routine, the Variable-Recharge procedure, was developed to simulate areal recharge and the contribution of the uplands to the drift system. This procedure allows for water applied to land surface to infiltrate or to be rejected. Rejected recharge and ground water discharged when the water table is at land surface form surface runoff-this excess upland water can be redirected as runoff to other parts of the model. Infiltration of streamwater, areal recharge to uplands and valley, and lateral subsurface flow from the uplands to the valley are sources of water to the stratufued0druft aquifer. Water is removed from the stratified-drift aquifer at Wooster primarily by production wells pumping at a rate of approximately 8.5 ft3/s (cubic feet per second). The ground-water budget resulting from two types of simulations of ground-water flow in this study indicates the primary sources of water to the wells are recharge at or near land surface and lateral subsurface flow from the shale and sandstone bedrock. Components of recharge at land surface include induced infiltration from streams, precipitation on the valley floor, and infiltration of unchanneled upland runoff that reaches the valley floor. The steady-state simulation was designed to represent conditions during the fall of 1984. The transient simulation was designed to represent an 11-day snowmelt event, 23 February to 5 March 1985, that caused water levels to rise significantly throughout the valley. Areal recharge to the valley and flow from the uplands to the valley were determined through the Variable-Recharge procedure. The total steady-state recharge to the valley was 12.5 ft3/s. Upland sources, areal valley recharge, and induced infiltration from Killnuck Creek accounted for 63, 23, and 8 percent, respectively, of the valley recharge. An analysis of the simulated vertical flow to the buried stratified drift through surficial slit, clay, and fine sand indicates that about 75 percent of the total recharge to the buried deposits is the sum of areally extensive, relatively small flows less than about 0.01 ft? /s per model node), whereas about 25 percent of the recharge results from a really restricted, relatively large flows (greater than about 0.01 ft? /s per model node). The large-magnitude flows are located primarily beneath Clear and Little Killbuck Creeks where seepage provides abundant recharge and the surficial sediments grade into coarser alluvial-fan deposits. Chemical and isotopic studies of ground water and streamwater combined with measurements of stream infiltration provide independent support for the conclusions derived from computer simulation of ground-water flow. In addition, the chemical and isotopic studies helped quantity the rate and pathways of infiltrating water from

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS2001

Simulation of flow in the upper North Coast Limestone Aquifer, Manati-Vega Baja area, Puerto Rico

A two-dimensional computer ground-water model was constructed of the Manati-Vega Baja area to improve the understanding of the unconfined upper aquifer within the North Coast Province of Puerto Rico. The modeled area covers approximately 79 square miles within the municipios of Manati and Vega Baja and small portions of Vega Alta and Barceloneta. Steady-state two-dimensional ground-water simulations were correlated to conditions prior to construction of the Laguna Tortuguero outlet channel in 1940 and calibrated to the observed potentiometric surface in March 1995. At the regional scale, the unconfined Upper North Coast Limestone aquifer is a diffuse ground-water flow system through the Aguada and Aymamon limestone units. The calibrated model input parameters for aquifer recharge varied from 2 inches per year in coastal areas to 18 inches per year in the upland areas south of Manati and Vega Baja. The calibrated transmissivity values ranged from less than 500 feet squared per day in the upland areas near the southern boundary to 70,000 feet squared per day in the areas west of Vega Baja. Increased ground-water withdrawals from 1.0 cubic foot per second for 1940 conditions to 26.3 cubic feet per second in 1995, has reduced the natural ground-water discharge to springs and wetland areas, and induced additional recharge from the rivers. The most important regional drainage feature is Laguna Tortuguero, which is the major ground-water discharge body for the upper aquifer, and has a drainage area of approximately 17 square miles. The discharge to the sea from Laguna Tortuguero through the outlet channel has been measured on a bi-monthly basis since 1974. The outflow represents a combination of ground- and surface-water discharge over the drainage area. Hydrologic conditions, prior to construction of the Laguna Tortuguero outlet channel in 1943, can be considered natural conditions with minimal ground-water pumpage (1.0 cubic foot per second), and heads in the lagoon were 2.4 feet higher. The model was calibrated to March 1995 conditions during a dry period of minimal aquifer recharge and relatively constant water levels in the upper aquifer. For the steady-state 1995 model simulation, however, ground-water pumpage had been increased to 26.3 cubic foot per second, due to increased demand for public water supply, the heads at 0.9 feet, and the outflow to the sea at Laguna Tortuguero had been lowered considerably. Simulated ground-water inflow for 1940 hydrologic conditions included 35.9 cubic feet per second from areal recharge, contributions from streamflow along the southern boundary of 1.6 cubic feet per second, and streamflow infiltration to the upper aquifer of 4.2 cubic feet per second. Simulated ground-water outflow for 1940 hydrologic conditions are discharge to springs of 17.4 cubic feet per second, total ground-water withdrawals of 1.0 cubic feet per second, and aquifer contribution to streamflow or wetland areas of 23.4 cubic feet per second. Simulated ground-water inflow for hydrologic conditions of March 1995 include d contributions from streamflow along the southern boundary of 1.6 cubic feet per second, areal recharge of 35.9 cubic feet per second, and streamflow infiltration to the upper aquifer of 11 cubic feet per second. Simulated ground-water outflow for hydrologic conditions of March 1995 are ground-water withdrawals of 26.3 cubic feet per second, discharge from springs of 7.3 cubic feet per second, and aquifer contribution to streamflow or wetland areas of 14 .9 cubic feet per second. The overall ground-water budget increased from 41.8 cubic feet per second for 1940 conditions to 48.6 cubic feet per second for the hydrologic conditions of March 1995. The increase in ground-water budget is a direct result of increased ground-water withdrawals, which induced greater streamflow infiltration. Simulated ground-water flux to Laguna Tortuguero for 1940 conditions was 11 cubic feet per second, which drop

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS2020

Ecological status of aquatic communities in selected streams in the Milwaukee Metropolitan Sewerage District planning area of Wisconsin, 2004–13

A total of 14 wadable streams in urban or urbanizing watersheds near Milwaukee, Wisconsin, were sampled in 2004, 2007, 2010, and 2013 to assess the ecological status of aquatic communities (biota), including benthic algae and invertebrates, and fish. To assess temporal variation, additional community sampling was also done at a subset of three sites in 2011 and 2012. Relative abundances of each type of organism were used to calculate biological metrics, such as richness and diversity, percentages of intolerant and tolerant organisms, and indexes of biotic integrity for invertebrates and fish. Selected environmental (physical and chemical) data in the streams were collected to evaluate potential relations to the biota and the ecological health of the stream. Physical and chemical data included land use/land cover, stream discharge from U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamgages (except at 2 creeks that were not gaged), stream habitat, microhabitat at invertebrate collection locations, water quality (except at 2 creeks that were not gaged), field measurements of several water-quality constituents, measures of benthic algal biomass, and toxicity and chemical tests on extracts from passive samplers deployed at a subset of 6 sites. Relative abundances of organisms and biological metrics were compared among sampling years and with environmental metrics to evaluate the ecological status of these streams and determine primary stressors on the aquatic communities, with the aim of helping resource managers understand and work toward improving the ecological health of these and other urban and urbanizing rivers in the study area. Biological metrics for most sites indicated some level of diminished ecological status when compared across all sampled sites and when compared with rating scales for selected metrics. The least degraded sites among all those sampled—indicated by aggregate bioassessments for algae, invertebrates, and fish metrics and in order starting with the best overall condition—were the Milwaukee River near Cedarburg, Menomonee River at Menomonee Falls, Jewel Creek, and Milwaukee River at Milwaukee. The most degraded sites were Menomonee River at Wauwatosa, Root River at Greenfield, Lincoln Creek, and the Kinnickinnic River. Differences in aggregate bioassessments indicate that aquatic communities at the Menomonee River at Wauwatosa site and the Root River at Greenfield site were worse in 2013 than in 2004; however, Oak Creek and Honey Creek sites were better. In 2013, several sites had less than 30-percent pollution-sensitive diatoms indicating degraded algal assemblages. Invertebrate metrics for most of the 14 sites in 2013 were lower than in 2004 and indicate that invertebrate assemblages at most sampled sites were more degraded in 2013. Tolerant fish taxa made up more than 40 percent of assemblages at most sites and nearly 100 percent of assemblages at four sites. At times, in some smaller streams, too few fish were captured to compute an Index of Biotic Integrity with confidence, and invertebrates provided a better means for assessing the ecological status and water quality. With these few exceptions, the use of all three groups of biota provided the most robust assessments at the 14 sites in 2004–13. Physical and chemical stressors were correlated to adverse effects on aquatic biota at the sampled streams. Passive samplers were deployed at a subset of six sites in 2013. Microtox results indicated there was little or no toxicity at the Milwaukee River near Cedarburg site and at the Oak Creek site, slight toxicity at the Lincoln Creek and Honey Creek sites, and moderate toxicity at the Milwaukee River at Milwaukee site and the Little Menomonee River site; however, based on cytochrome-P450 reporter gene system toxicity tests, potential toxicity from hydrophobic organic contaminants was measured at all six sites. For all 14 sites, physical and chemical stressors related to urbanization correlated with biological metrics for algae, invertebrates, and fish. Most stressors for aquatic biota reflected an urban signature. Stressors related to ecological condition in our study were chemical and physical, such as developed land, impervious surface in the watershed, urban land in a buffer area around the stream (a 100-foot [30-meter]-wide area on each side of the stream, and maximum instantaneous discharge normalized by drainage area (a measure of flood and scour effects). Chemical stressors included low waterborne concentrations of dissolved oxygen and high concentrations of chloride, zinc and other metals, nutrients (nitrite and phosphorus), and fecal coliform bacteria. Although algae, invertebrates, and fish did not always demonstrate a significant response to the same stressors, higher abundances of high total phosphorus-indicator diatoms, lower ratings for invertebrate biotic integrity indexes and percentages of mayflies-stoneflies-caddisflies, and lower values for fish biotic integrity indexes underscored possible adverse effects of even low levels of developed land. Developed land is typically associated with more rapid runoff, which washes chemicals from impervious surfaces into area waterways and degrades stream habitat for aquatic communities. However, with respect to at least chloride from road salt, diatoms tolerant to dissolved salts were significantly lower with as little as 1-percent mixed forest in the watershed. Lower percentages of urban land in the stream buffer correlated with healthier aquatic assemblages of algae, invertebrates, and fish. The assessment of algal, invertebrate, and fish assemblages coupled with physical and chemical data were highly useful in evaluating the ecological status of aquatic communities at the 14 sites and for determining environmental stressors that may be contributing to reduced stream condition. Some of the stressors could potentially be removed or lessened with stream rehabilitation or changes in watershed management.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2020

Groundwater quality and geochemistry of West Virginia’s southern coal fields

Coal mining has been the dominant industry and land use in West Virginia’s southern coal fields since the mid-1800s. Mortality rates for a variety of serious chronic conditions, such as diabetes, heart disease, and some forms of cancer in Appalachian coal mining regions, are higher than in areas lacking substantial coal mining activity within the Appalachian Region or elsewhere in the United States. Causes of the increased mortality and morbidity are not clear, but poor diet, high rates of smoking, socioeconomic factors, and the quality of groundwater used by area residents are all possible contributing factors. This study was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the West Virginia Department of Health and Human Resources and the West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection, with grant support from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to assess the quality of groundwater in southern West Virginia. The data from this assessment of groundwater quality may be used by the CDC and other agencies to potentially investigate the role or lack thereof of groundwater quality with respect to mortality and morbidity rates in the region. The study was conducted in a region where a high density of current or past coal mining combined with a lack of advanced sewage treatment could affect concentrations of commonly occurring constituents plus contaminants, including nitrate, trace metals, major ions, indicator bacteria, radon, hydrogen sulfide, and dissolved hydrocarbons. Because rural residential wells and mine outfalls are considered private sources of water in the region, and are therefore unregulated and unmonitored, water-quality data are sparse. To fill the data gap and assess the groundwater quality in the region, water-quality samples were collected from 60 sites in a 10-county area. The 60 sites sampled included 46 rural residential homeowner wells and 14 mine outfall discharges used for residential supply. For this study, all samples were collected prior to any filtration or other treatments, typically at the pressure tank, and are indicative of total and dissolved constituents in the untreated water. Generally, data for the 60 sites indicate that most waters sampled do not exceed thresholds for most U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) drinking-water standards and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) drinking-water screening criteria. However, there were several notable exceptions. Turbidity exceeded the 5-Nephelometric Turbidity Unit (NTU) EPA treatment technique (TT) drinking-water standard in 14 of 60 (23 percent) sites sampled and exceeded the 1-NTU TT standard in 51 of 60 (85 percent) sites sampled. Turbidity is common in many wells in southern West Virginia and may be attributed to iron oxyhydroxide precipitates, sediment carried into the aquifers from the shallow soil zone due to improperly constructed or cased wells or transported to the aquifer in shallow stress-relief fracture zones or through permeable bedding-plane partings. For the sites sampled, 31 of 60 (52 percent) had pH values at, above, or below the upper and lower range of the EPA Secondary Maximum Contaminant Level (SMCL, 6.5–8.5 standard units). Of those 31 sites, 28 (90 percent) were indicative of acidic corrosive water and 3 (10 percent) were indicative of alkaline water. The Langelier Saturation Index (LSI), which is a measure of the corrosivity of the water, was computed for all sites sampled for the study. Eighty-two percent of the sites sampled had waters that were classified as corrosive, based on a LSI less than −0.5. Corrosive water has the potential to leach lead, copper, and other metals from lead, copper, galvanized, or lead-tin soldered connections in water lines. The chloride to sulfate mass ratio also was assessed with the alkalinity to indicate the potential to promote galvanic corrosion (PPGC) of water lines and plumbing fixtures. Only one of the sites (1.7 percent) classified as a corrosive water site, had a PPGC considered high; the remaining sites were classified as having either a moderate (53.3 percent) or low (45 percent) PPGC. Therefore, the type of plumbing systems sampled for this study may be affected by corrosive water, but the potential for leaching trace metals and other constituents from residential plumbing systems containing older galvanized pipes or lead-tin soldered copper pipes is moderate to low. The indicator bacteria total coliform and Escherichia coli ( E. coli ) also were detected in groundwater samples to varying degrees. Total coliforms, which are a broad class of indicator bacteria, are common in groundwater in southern West Virginia and were detected in 39 of the 60 sites (65 percent) sampled. The presence of total coliform bacteria is a potential indicator of surface contamination, due to improperly constructed or cased wells, or infiltration of soil or other surface contaminants into the aquifer or well bore. E. coli bacteria, however, are much more indicative of fecal contamination of groundwater from either human or animal sources, and 14 of the 60 (23 percent) sites sampled had detections of E. coli . Although only a few strains of E. coli are known pathogens, their presence in groundwater may be an indicator of other related pathogens such as viruses and should be regarded as a serious potential issue. Water treatment such as chlorination, ozonation, or ultraviolet light may be appropriate to kill potential pathogenic bacteria or viruses in the source water. Manganese and iron were prevalent contaminants in the groundwater samples collected for this study, with 30 of 60 (50 percent) sites analyzed for manganese and 25 of 60 (42 percent) sites analyzed for iron exceeding the proposed 50- and 300-micrograms per liter (µg/L) SMCL drinking-water standards, respectively, for aesthetic criteria such as taste, odor, or staining of plumbing fixtures. Fourteen of the 60 sites sampled (23 percent) had concentrations of manganese that exceeded the 300-µg/L USGS health-based screening level, and 1 site exceeded the 1,600-µg/L EPA drinking-water equivalent level, which is based on a lifetime exposure level. Sodium is another common constituent in groundwater within the study area. Sodium has an EPA health-based value (HBV) of 20 milligrams per liter (mg/L) for individuals who are on a sodium-restricted diet for blood pressure or other health reasons. Sodium concentrations exceeded the 20-mg/L EPA HBV in 27 of 60 (45 percent) samples. Radon, a naturally occurring carcinogenic radioactive gas known to cause lung cancer, was detected at concentrations at or exceeding the proposed 300-picocuries per liter (pCi/L) EPA Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) in 12 of the 60 (20 percent) sites sampled. Sites with radon gas concentrations exceeding the 300-pCi/L proposed MCL have the potential for airborne concentrations of radon to exceed the 4-pCi/L indoor air standard. Inhalation of radon can cause lung cancer, and the 4-pCi/L indoor air standard is based on an inhalation standard. Therefore, homeowners whose wells have radon gas concentrations exceeding 300 pCi/L may be advised to have their indoor air tested to determine if indoor air concentrations exceed the 4-pCi/L indoor air standard established by the EPA. Various factors were analyzed statistically and graphically to determine whether they have an influence on groundwater quality within the study area, including topographic setting, well depth, type of mining (surface or underground), type of site (well or mine outfall), and geologic formation. Only geologic formation and the type of site sampled had strong statistical correlations with one or more of the constituents of concern for this study. The overall chemistry of outfalls (mine outfalls) and wells was significantly different, with a much higher dissolved oxygen content in outfalls than in wells. The dissolved oxygen content is the primary component driving the oxidation and reduction of minerals, and the precipitation of minerals that are saturated or super saturated with respect to various cations and anions. Median dissolved oxygen concentrations for the outfalls sampled was 8.75 mg/L, and only 0.4 mg/L for the wells sampled. Median concentrations of sulfate and selenium were much higher in waters from the outfalls sampled, with median concentrations of 73.75 mg/L and 2.35 µg/L, respectively, compared to the wells sampled, which had median concentrations of 18.3 mg/L and less than (<) the 0.05-µg/L method detection limit, respectively. The maximum selenium concentration was for a well, with a concentration of 16.6 µg/L. The geochemical processes that control sulfate and selenium concentrations in groundwater are similar and are the result of the oxidation of sulfide minerals such as pyrite and ferroselite. Iron and manganese concentrations were elevated in most of the wells sampled, with median concentrations of 269.5 and 124.5 µg/L, respectively, but were rarely detected in the outfalls sampled, with median concentrations of < 4.0 and < 0.4 µg/L, respectively. The difference in iron and manganese between wells and outfalls is indicative of the role of dissolved oxygen on processes controlling groundwater chemistry in the region. Three principal geologic formations were assessed for the study, and the overall chemistry for the Pocahontas, New River, and Kanawha Formations varied substantially with respect to several constituents. Concentrations of calcium, magnesium, and total dissolved solids were highest for sites sampled in the Pocahontas Formation, with median concentrations of 41.9, 18.6, and 312 mg/L, respectively. For constituents that are commonly associated with mining activity, the highest concentrations were for sites sampled in the New River Formation, with median concentrations of iron and manganese of 2,450 µg/L and 482 µg/L, respectively, and a median pH of 6.35 standard units. Concentrations of barium also were elevated in samples collected from sites in the New River Formation, with a median barium concentration of 184 µg/L. The source of the barium is not fully known but may be associated with commingling of shallow groundwater with deeper brines or dissolution of the mineral barite. The highest median sulfate concentrations were from sites sampled in the Pocahontas Formation, with a median concentration of 64.0 mg/L. Of the 12 sites at or exceeding the 300-pCi/L proposed drinking-water standard for radon, 8 (67 percent of MCL exceedances) were for sites deriving water from the Kanawha Formation, 3 (25 percent of MCL exceedances) were for sites deriving water from the New River Formation, and only 1 site was for water from the Pocahontas Formation (8 percent of proposed MCL exceedances). Dissolved hydrocarbons, including methane, ethane, propane, propene, n - and i -butane, 1-butene, n - and i -pentane, pentane, 2- and 3-ethyl pentane, hexane, and benzene were analyzed in samples collected from 59 of the 60 sites to assess the potential occurrence and sources of these trace gases in groundwater within the study area. Results of the analysis indicate that most of the gas is of shallow biogenic origin, possibly associated with coal-bed methane, but a subset of samples has a gas signature and a chloride to bromide ratio indicative of potential mixing with deeper thermogenic gases. Only 2 of the 59 (3.3 percent) sites sampled had concentrations of methane gas, which is a highly combustible and explosive gas, exceeding the 10 milligrams per kilogram level of concern established by the U.S. Office of Surface Mining Reclamation and Enforcement. Principal components analysis was used to assess the primary geochemical processes occurring in the aquifers sampled. The first principal component had significant positive loadings for bromide, chloride, silica, ammonia, barium, iron, manganese, and arsenic, and significant negative loadings for dissolved oxygen, potassium, nitrate, and uranium, and reflects reduction and oxidation (redox) processes occurring in deeper anoxic groundwater or shallow oxic groundwater. The strong positive loadings for iron, manganese, barium, and arsenic are correlated with reducing conditions often found deeper in the aquifer. More oxic water is correlated with oxidation of nitrogen species to nitrate and environmental mobilization of uranium and sulfate in shallow wells and mine outfalls.

West Virginia↗

USGS2024

Bathymetric and velocimetric surveys at highway bridges crossing the Missouri River between Kansas City and St. Louis, Missouri, May 19–26, 2021

Bathymetric and velocimetric data were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Missouri Department of Transportation, near nine bridges at eight highway crossings of the Missouri River between Kansas City and St. Louis, Missouri, from May 19 to 26, 2021. A multibeam echosounder mapping system was used to obtain channel-bed elevations for river reaches about 1,640 to 1,840 feet (ft) longitudinally and generally extending laterally across the active channel from bank to bank during low to moderate flood-flow conditions. These surveys provided channel geometry and hydraulic conditions at the time of the surveys and provided characteristics of scour holes that may be useful in developing or verifying predictive guidelines or equations for computing potential scour depth. These data also may be useful to the Missouri Department of Transportation as a low to moderate flood-flow assessment of the bridges for stability and integrity issues with respect to bridge scour during floods. Bathymetric data were collected around every in-channel pier. Scour holes were present at most piers for which bathymetry could be obtained, except those on banks or surrounded by riprap. Occasionally, scour holes were minor and difficult to discern from nearby dunes and ripples. All the bridge sites in this study were previously surveyed and documented in previous studies. Comparisons between bathymetric surfaces from the previous surveys and those of the current (2021) study do not indicate any consistent correlation between channel-bed elevations and streamflow conditions. The average difference between the bathymetric surfaces varied from 1.59 ft higher to 0.95 ft lower in 2021 than 2017, which corresponds to a gain of 100,200 cubic yards and a loss of 55,800 cubic yards, respectively. The average difference between the bathymetric surfaces varied from 2.74 ft higher to 3.05 ft lower in 2021 than 2013, which corresponds to a gain of 111,500 cubic yards and a loss of 169,200 cubic yards, respectively. The average difference between the bathymetric surfaces varied from 4.52 ft higher to 1.38 ft lower in 2021 than 2011, which corresponds to a gain of 221,100 cubic yards and a loss of 90,300 cubic yards, respectively. The most substantial overall net gain was 221,100 cubic yards between 2011 and 2021 at structures L0550 and A4497 at Jefferson City (site 20). The large net gain likely results from a combination of the mitigation of the scour holes near pier 4 of both bridges and the substantially lower flow in 2021 than in 2011. Alternatively, the most substantial overall net loss was 169,200 cubic yards between 2013 and 2021 at structure A6288 at Hermann (site 21), despite comparable streamflows. Pier size, nose shape, and skew to approach flow had a substantial effect on the size of the scour hole observed at a given pier. Larger and deeper scour holes were present at piers with wide or blunt noses caused by exposed footings or caissons. When a pier was skewed to primary approach flow, the scour hole was generally deeper and larger than at a similar pier without skew; furthermore, the shape of the scour hole near skewed piers in this study generally was longer and deeper on the side with impinging flow. At structure A6288 at Hermann (site 21), the scour hole near pier 5 was difficult to discern from nearby dunes and ripples, whereas the upstream edge of the footing was visible at pier 4, which likely contributes to the larger scour hole near that pier; the top of the footing may blunt the horseshoe vortex at pier 5, but the exposed front of the footing may exacerbate the vortex at pier 4.

Missouri↗