Search USGS⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search USGS

Results for “Forest Science”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 415 records · Page 23Linked to original sources
USGS2016

Validation of the ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model version 3 over the conterminous United States

The ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model Version 3 (GDEM v3) was evaluated over the conterminous United States in a manner similar to the validation conducted for the original GDEM Version 1 (v1) in 2009 and GDEM Version 2 (v2) in 2011. The absolute vertical accuracy of GDEM v3 was calculated by comparison with more than 23,000 independent reference geodetic ground control points from the U.S. National Geodetic Survey. The root mean square error (RMSE) measured for GDEM v3 is 8.52 meters. This compares with the RMSE of 8.68 meters for GDEM v2. Another important descriptor of vertical accuracy is the mean error, or bias, which indicates if a DEM has an overall vertical offset from true ground level. The GDEM v3 mean error of −1.20 meters reflects an overall negative bias in GDEM v3. The absolute vertical accuracy assessment results, both mean error and RMSE, were segmented by land cover type to provide insight into how GDEM v3 performs in various land surface conditions. While the RMSE varies little across cover types (6.92 to 9.25 meters), the mean error (bias) does appear to be affected by land cover type, ranging from −2.99 to +4.16 meters across 14 land cover classes. These results indicate that in areas where built or natural aboveground features are present, GDEM v3 is measuring elevations above the ground level, a condition noted in assessments of previous GDEM versions (v1 and v2) and an expected condition given the type of stereo-optical image data collected by ASTER. GDEM v3 was also evaluated by differencing with the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) dataset. In many forested areas, GDEM v3 has elevations that are higher in the canopy than SRTM. The overall validation effort also included an evaluation of the GDEM v3 water mask. In general, the number of distinct water polygons in GDEM v3 is much lower than the number in a reference land cover dataset, but the total areas compare much more closely.

The International Archives of the Photogrammetry, ↗
USGS2003

A comparison of bat activity at low and high elevations in the Black Hills of western Washington

We examined the differences in activity patterns and community structure of bats between low (<150 m) and high ( ! 575 m) elevation sites in two habitats of the Capitol State Forest, Washington. Total bat activity averaged four times higher at low elevation sites than at high elevation sites. Feeding activity was almost 20 times higher at low elevation sites. However, the non-myotis group had similar activity levels at high and low elevation, whereas myotis group activity decreased at higher elevations. Different levels of activity between elevations could be the result of differences in insect availability, climatic conditions, and morphology of the bat species.

Northwest Science↗
USGS2003

Evidence for chlorine recycling - Hydrosphere, biosphere, atmosphere - In a forested wet zone on the Canadian Shield

The ability to measure environmental levels of 36Cl by Accelerator Mass Spectrometry and 3H by 3He-ingrowth Mass Spectrometry has made it possible to use the pulses of these two isotopes released into the atmosphere during nuclear weapons testing as tracers of Cl and water movement in soils and groundwater. The authors have investigated the movement of these tracers below a forested wet zone, and have found that both are retarded to a differing extent in the near surface because of vegetative uptake and recycling. Adsorption by clay particles, followed by slow release to the groundwater, may also be significant. The data accumulated in this region of near vertical recharge have gone a considerable distance towards explaining the anomalously low concentrations of 36Cl measured in the 5 Laurentian Great Lakes, as well as indicating possible mechanisms for large scale Cl- recycling in the atmosphere and biosphere. Identification of the near-term non-conservative behaviour of the Cl- is significant, since such a phenomenon could introduce errors in many watershed calculations, e.g. water residence times, evaporation rates, and mixing calculations. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.

Applied Geochemistry↗
USGS2007

Identifying biotic integrity and water chemistry relations in nonwadeable rivers of Wisconsin: Toward the development of nutrient criteria

We sampled 41 sites on 34 nonwadeable rivers that represent the types of rivers in Wisconsin, and the kinds and intensities of nutrient and other anthropogenic stressors upon each river type. Sites covered much of United States Environmental Protection Agency national nutrient ecoregions VII-Mostly Glaciated Dairy Region, and VIII-Nutrient Poor, Largely Glaciated upper Midwest. Fish, macroinvertebrates, and three categories of environmental variables including nutrients, other water chemistry, and watershed features were collected using standard protocols. We summarized fish assemblages by index of biotic integrity (IBI) and its 10 component measures, and macroinvertebrates by 2 organic pollution tolerance and 12 proportional richness measures. All biotic and environmental variables represented a wide range of conditions, with biotic measures ranging from poor to excellent status, despite nutrient concentrations being consistently higher than reference concentrations reported for the regions. Regression tree analyses of nutrients on a suite of biotic measures identified breakpoints in total phosphorus (~0.06 mg/l) and total nitrogen (~0.64 mg/l) concentrations at which biotic assemblages were consistently impaired. Redundancy analyses (RDA) were used to identify the most important variables within each of the three environmental variable categories, which were then used to determine the relative influence of each variable category on the biota. Nutrient measures, suspended chlorophyll a, water clarity, and watershed land cover type (forest or row-crop agriculture) were the most important variables and they explained significant amounts of variation within the macroinvertebrate (R 2 = 60.6%) and fish (R 2 = 43.6%) assemblages. The environmental variables selected in the macroinvertebrate model were correlated to such an extent that partial RDA analyses could not attribute variation explained to individual environmental categories, assigning 89% of the explained variation to interactions among the categories. In contrast, partial RDA attributed much of the explained variation to the nutrient (25%) and other water chemistry (38%) categories for the fish model. Our analyses suggest that it would be beneficial to develop criteria based upon a suite of biotic and nutrient variables simultaneously to deem waters as not meeting their designated uses. ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

Environmental Management↗
USGS2026

Colored shaded-relief bathymetric and acoustic-backscatter maps of Jenkinson Lake with orthomosaic of the Sly Park Creek and Hazel Creek area, California

The Caldor Fire was ignited on August 14, 2021, and burned almost 222,000 acres (898 square kilometers) in forested terrain of the central and western Sierra Nevada, California. During the subsequent two months, the fire burned nearly all of Sly Park Creek watershed in El Dorado County. The El Dorado Irrigation District manages the water supply for the area using storage in Jenkinson Lake, a 1.6-kilometer- (1.0-mile-) wide and 3.6-kilometer- (2.2-mile-) long reservoir, located south of the town of Pollock Pines. Several weeks after the fire, the U.S. Geological Survey began investigations into post-fire landscape responses, including sediment yield, by measuring new sediment deposition in Jenkinson Lake. This study focused on the collection and processing of bathymetric and acoustic-backscatter data, as well as onshore aerial imagery in and around Jenkinson Lake, to support wildfire science after the Caldor Fire. A colored shaded-relief bathymetric map (sheet 1) and an acoustic backscatter map (sheet 2) show the lake floor morphology and backscatter intensities.

California↗
USGS2018

Individual species–area relationships in temperate coniferous forests

Questions What drives individual species–area relationships in temperate coniferous forests? Location Two 25.6‐ha forest plots on the Pacific Slope of North America, one in California, and one in Washington State. Methods We mapped all trees ≥1 cm in diameter and examined tree species diversity of their local neighbourhoods by calculating the individual species–area relationship for each species and for each of three diameter classes (saplings, mature trees and large‐diameter trees). Results In the California plot, small trees in four of the five major species occurred in neighbourhoods with higher levels of diversity than would be expected at random. In the Washington plot, small trees for four of five abundant species had neighbourhoods with lower than expected diversity at distances ≤5 m for small trees. However, at distances >5 m, all five species showed higher than expected diversity in their neighbourhoods. Larger trees at both plots tended to occur in neighbourhoods with lower than expected diversity, and no large‐diameter focal species had neighbourhoods with higher than expected diversity. Conclusion Diversity and co‐existence in temperate conifer‐dominated forests do not appear to be the result of random processes. Competitive interactions appear to dominate for the largest trees of most species, resulting in neighbourhoods with lower diversity. For smaller trees, we suggest that a positive response to environmental heterogeneity is the likely driver of neighbourhoods with higher than expected diversity, although we cannot rule out the possibility that facilitation or conspecific negative density dependence (CNDD) also play a role.

Journal of Vegetation Science↗
USGS1990

Denitrification in sediments from the hyporheic zone adjacent to a small forested stream

Denitrifying potentials increased with increasing distance from the stream channel. Dissolved oxygen was 100% of the concentration expected in equilibrium with the atmosphere in water obtained from monitoring wells immediately adjacent to the stream but was as low as 7% of the expected value in water 11.4 m inland. Both nitrate and dissolved organic carbon decreased over summer in wells at the base of the alder-forested slope. A 48-h injection of nitrate-amended stream water into hyporheic water 8.4 m inland stimulated nitrous oxide production in the presence of acetylene. Nitrous oxide was generated as nitrate and acetylene were co-transported to a well 13 m down-gradient. Acetylene-block experiments coupled with the chemistry data suggest that denitrification can modify the chemistry of water during passage through the hyporheic zone. -from Authors

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗
USGS2025

Ten more years of the golden pheasant (Chrysolophus pictus) on Maui, Hawaiian Islands

Since the introduction of the Golden Pheasant ( Chrysolophus pictus ) to Haleakalā volcano, Maui, three decades ago, subsequent reports have hinted at an expansion of this nascent population. We draw from a variety of data sources to learn about this pheasant's present status on Maui. First, forest bird surveys conducted every five years revealed that the frequency of Golden Pheasant detections has greatly increased, and the bird has both maintained its former distribution and expanded eastward into Haleakalā National Park (NP). Second, reports to eBird from The Nature Conservancy's Waikamoi Preserve, where Golden Pheasants first appeared on Maui, demonstrate that the frequency of observations has increased and is strongly seasonal, predominantly in the spring. Third, autonomous recording units monitoring endangered forest birds recorded pheasants too, adding new locations. Finally, trail cameras set to monitor mammals picked up pheasants as well, showing males of two color morphs: original “wild-type” and “dark-throated.” Trail cameras also documented a small juvenile at Waikamoi Preserve and both females and males in Haleakalā NP. By “connecting the dots” of mapped occurrences, we traced the pheasant's progression through a narrow band of subalpine cloud forest with open understory, extending from Waikamoi Preserve eastward to upper Kīpahulu Valley, a distance of 14 km. In summary, this body of evidence supports the claim that the Golden Pheasant has established a self-sustaining population on Maui, and we propose that the species' success there may be attributed to the minimal influence of predators and the absence of competing gallinaceous birds in its preferred habitat.

Hawaii↗
USGS2020

Economic, land use, and ecosystem services impacts of Rwanda's Green Growth Strategy: An application of the IEEM+ESM platform

We develop and link the Integrated Economic-Environmental Modeling (IEEM) Platform to ecosystem services modeling (ESM). The IEEM+ESM Platform is an innovative decision-making framework for exploring complex public policy goals and elucidating synergies and trade-offs between alternative policy portfolios. The IEEM+ESM approach is powerful in its ability to shed light on (i) change in land use and ecosystem services driven by public policy and the supply and demand responses of businesses and households; and (ii) impacts on standard economic indicators of concern to Ministries of Finance such as gross domestic product and employment, as well as changes in wealth and ecosystem services. The IEEM+ESM approach is being adopted rapidly and by the end of 2020, IEEM+ESM Platforms will be implemented for about 25 countries. To demonstrate the insights generated by the IEEM+ESM approach, we apply it to the analysis of alternative green growth strategies in Rwanda, a country that has made strong progress in reducing poverty and enhancing economic growth in the last 15 years. The case of Rwanda is particularly compelling as it faces intense pressure on its natural capital base and ecosystem services, already with the highest population density in Africa, which is projected to double by 2050. In applying IEEM+ESM and comparing the outcomes of Rwanda’s green growth policies, increasing fertilization of agricultural crops shows the largest economic gains but also trade-offs in environmental quality reflected through higher nutrient export and reduced water quality. Combining crop fertilization with forest plantations better balances critical ecosystem services and their role in underpinning economic development as Rwanda progresses toward its target of middle-income status by 2035. This application to Rwanda’s green growth strategy demonstrates the value-added of the IEEM+ESM approach in generating results that speak to both economic outcomes and impacts on market and non-market ecosystem services.

Science of the Total Environment↗
USGS2017

Species distribution models for a migratory bird based on citizen science and satellite tracking data

Species distribution models can provide critical baseline distribution information for the conservation of poorly understood species. Here, we compared the performance of band-tailed pigeon ( Patagioenas fasciata) species distribution models created using Maxent and derived from two separate presence-only occurrence data sources in New Mexico: 1) satellite tracked birds and 2) observations reported in eBird basic data set. Both models had good accuracy (test AUC > 0.8 and True Skill Statistic > 0.4), and high overlap between suitability scores ( I statistic 0.786) and suitable habitat patches (relative rank 0.639). Our results suggest that, at the state-wide level, eBird occurrence data can effectively model similar species distributions as satellite tracking data. Climate change models for the band-tailed pigeon predict a 35% loss in area of suitable climate by 2070 if CO 2 emissions drop to 1990 levels by 2100, and a 45% loss by 2070 if we continue current CO 2 emission levels through the end of the century. These numbers may be conservative given the predicted increase in drought, wildfire, and forest pest impacts to the coniferous forests the species inhabits in New Mexico. The northern portion of the species’ range in New Mexico is predicted to be the most viable through time.

New Mexico↗
USGS2009

Widespread increase of tree mortality rates in the Western United States

Persistent changes in tree mortality rates can alter forest structure, composition, and ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration. Our analyses of longitudinal data from unmanaged old forests in the western United States showed that background (noncatastrophic) mortality rates have increased rapidly in recent decades, with doubling periods ranging from 17 to 29 years among regions. Increases were also pervasive across elevations, tree sizes, dominant genera, and past fire histories. Forest density and basal area declined slightly, which suggests that increasing mortality was not caused by endogenous increases in competition. Because mortality increased in small trees, the overall increase in mortality rates cannot be attributed solely to aging of large trees. Regional warming and consequent increases in water deficits are likely contributors to the increases in tree mortality rates.

Science↗
USGS2015

The rise of fire: Fossil charcoal in late Devonian marine shales as an indicator of expanding terrestrial ecosystems, fire, and atmospheric change

Fossil charcoal provides direct evidence for fire events that, in turn, have implications for the evolution of both terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. Most of the ancient charcoal record is known from terrestrial or nearshore environments and indicates the earliest occurrences of fire in the Late Silurian. However, despite the rise in available fuel through the Devonian as vascular land plants became larger and trees and forests evolved, charcoal occurrences are very sparse until the Early Mississippian where extensive charcoal suggests well-established fire systems. We present data from the latest Devonian and Early Mississippian of North America from terrestrial and marine rocks indicating that fire became more widespread and significant at this time. This increase may be a function of rising O 2 levels and the occurrence of fire itself may have contributed to this rise through positive feedback. Recent atmospheric modeling suggests an O 2 low during the Middle Devonian (around 17.5%), with O 2 rising steadily through the Late Devonian and Early Mississippian (to 21–22%) that allowed for widespread burning for the first time. In Devonian-Mississippian marine black shales, fossil charcoal (inertinite) steadily increases up-section suggesting the rise of widespread fire systems. There is a concomitant increase in the amount of vitrinite (preserved woody and other plant tissues) that also suggests increased sources of terrestrial organic matter. Even as end Devonian glaciation was experienced, fossil charcoal continued to be a source of organic matter being introduced into the Devonian oceans. Scanning electron and reflectance microscopy of charcoal from Late Devonian terrestrial sites indicate that the fires were moderately hot (typically 500–600 °C) and burnt mainly surface vegetation dominated by herbaceous zygopterid ferns and lycopsids, rather than being produced by forest crown fires. The occurrence and relative abundance of fossil charcoal in marine black shales are significant in that these shales may provide a more continuous record of fire than is preserved in terrestrial environments. Our data support the idea that major fires are not seen in the fossil record until there is both sufficient and connected fuel and a high enough atmospheric O 2 content for it to burn.

American Journal of Science↗
USGS2016

Climate change and future fire regimes: Examples from California

Climate and weather have long been noted as playing key roles in wildfire activity, and global warming is expected to exacerbate fire impacts on natural and urban ecosystems. Predicting future fire regimes requires an understanding of how temperature and precipitation interact to control fire activity. Inevitably this requires historical analyses that relate annual burning to climate variation. Fuel structure plays a critical role in determining which climatic parameters are most influential on fire activity, and here, by focusing on the diversity of ecosystems in California, we illustrate some principles that need to be recognized in predicting future fire regimes. Spatial scale of analysis is important in that large heterogeneous landscapes may not fully capture accurate relationships between climate and fires. Within climatically homogeneous subregions, montane forested landscapes show strong relationships between annual fluctuations in temperature and precipitation with area burned; however, this is strongly seasonal dependent; e.g., winter temperatures have very little or no effect but spring and summer temperatures are critical. Climate models that predict future seasonal temperature changes are needed to improve fire regime projections. Climate does not appear to be a major determinant of fire activity on all landscapes. Lower elevations and lower latitudes show little or no increase in fire activity with hotter and drier conditions. On these landscapes climate is not usually limiting to fires but these vegetation types are ignition-limited. Moreover, because they are closely juxtaposed with human habitations, fire regimes are more strongly controlled by other direct anthropogenic impacts. Predicting future fire regimes is not rocket science; it is far more complicated than that. Climate change is not relevant to some landscapes, but where climate is relevant, the relationship will change due to direct climate effects on vegetation trajectories, as well as by feedback processes of fire effects on vegetation distribution, plus policy changes in how we manage ecosystems.

Geoscience Canada↗
USGS2015

Science foundation Chapter 5 Appendix 5.1: Case study dabbling ducks

Dabbling ducks are the most abundant group of waterfowl that overwinter in the shallow wetlands and ponds of San Francisco Bay (SFB). Species within this group are primarily omnivorous, feeding on both plant material and macroinvertebrate prey by “tipping” to access benthic foods in bottom sediments or by foraging in the water column. Although the majority of these ducks are migratory, smaller numbers also nest locally in the SFB. These species vary in body size, ranging from the large mallard ( Anas platyrhynchos ) to the small green-winged teal ( Anas crecca ). Other dabbling duck species present in the SFB include American wigeon ( Anas americana ), gadwall ( Anas strepera ), cinnamon teal ( Anas cyanoptera ), northern shoveler ( Anas clypeata ), northern pintail ( Anas acuta ), and wood duck ( Aix sponsa ). Most of these dabbling duck species are known to breed in the SFB with the exception of the American wigeon and green-winged teal. However, the majority of wintering ducks originate from breeding grounds in the Central Valley of California, Pacific Coast States, Alaska, and Intermountain States/provinces, prairie potholes, and boreal forest. Their wintering populations in SFB are greatest between October and January, and dabbling duck species are found in all SFB regions. However, most dabbling duck use is associated with former salt production ponds and in the north and south bays, and managed wetlands of the Suisun Marsh.

California↗
USGS2017

Monarch butterfly population decline in North America: identifying the threatening processes

The monarch butterfly ( Danaus plexippus ) population in North America has sharply declined over the last two decades. Despite rising concern over the monarch butterfly's status, no comprehensive study of the factors driving this decline has been conducted. Using partial least-squares regressions and time-series analysis, we investigated climatic and habitat-related factors influencing monarch population size from 1993 to 2014. Potential threats included climatic factors, habitat loss (milkweed and overwinter forest), disease and agricultural insecticide use (neonicotinoids). While climatic factors, principally breeding season temperature, were important determinants of annual variation in abundance, our results indicated strong negative relationships between population size and habitat loss variables, principally glyphosate use, but also weaker negative effects from the loss of overwinter forest and breeding season use of neonicotinoids. Further declines in population size because of glyphosate application are not expected. Thus, if remaining threats to habitat are mitigated we expect climate-induced stochastic variation of the eastern migratory population of monarch butterfly around a relatively stationary population size.

Royal Society Open Science↗
USGS2020

Deep-sea coral and sponge taxa increase demersal fish diversity and the probability of fish presence

Fishes are known to use deep-sea coral and sponge (DSCS) species as habitat, but it is uncertain whether this relationship is facultative (circumstantial and not restricted to a particular function) or obligate (necessary to sustain fish populations). To explore whether DSCS provide essential habitats for demersal fishes, we analyzed 10 years of submersible survey video transect data, documenting the locations and abundance of DSCS and demersal fishes in the Southern California Bight (SCB). We first classified the different habitats in which fishes and DSCS taxa occurred using cluster analysis, which revealed four distinct DSCS assemblages based on depth and substratum. We then used logistic regression and gradient forest analysis to identify the ecological correlates most associated with the presence of rockfish taxa ( Sebastes spp.) and biodiversity. After accounting for spatial autocorrelation, the factors most related to the presence of rockfishes were depth, coral height, and the abundance of a few key DSCS taxa. Of particular interest, we found that young-of-the-year rockfishes were more likely to be present in locations with taller coral and increased densities of Plumarella longispina , Lophelia pertusa , and two sponge taxa. This suggests these DSCS taxa may serve as important rearing habitat for rockfishes. Similarly, the gradient forest analysis found the most important ecological correlates for fish biodiversity were depth, coral cover, coral height, and a subset of DSCS taxa. Of the 10 top-ranked DSCS taxa in the gradient forest (out of 39 potential DSCS taxa), 6 also were associated with increased probability of fish presence in the logistic regression. The weight of evidence from these multiple analytical methods suggests that this subset of DSCS taxa are important fish habitats. In this paper we describe methods to characterize demersal communities and highlight which DSCS taxa provide habitat to demersal fishes, which is valuable information to fisheries agencies tasked to manage these fishes and their essential habitats.

California↗
USGS2015

Biodiversity influences plant productivity through niche–efficiency

The loss of biodiversity is threatening ecosystem productivity and services worldwide, spurring efforts to quantify its effects on the functioning of natural ecosystems. Previous research has focused on the positive role of biodiversity on resource acquisition (i.e., niche complementarity), but a lack of study on resource utilization efficiency, a link between resource and productivity, has rendered it difficult to quantify the biodiversity–ecosystem functioning relationship. Here we demonstrate that biodiversity loss reduces plant productivity, other things held constant, through theory, empirical evidence, and simulations under gradually relaxed assumptions. We developed a theoretical model named niche–efficiency to integrate niche complementarity and a heretofore-ignored mechanism of diminishing marginal productivity in quantifying the effects of biodiversity loss on plant productivity. Based on niche–efficiency, we created a relative productivity metric and a productivity impact index (PII) to assist in biological conservation and resource management. Relative productivity provides a standardized measure of the influence of biodiversity on individual productivity, and PII is a functionally based taxonomic index to assess individual species’ inherent value in maintaining current ecosystem productivity. Empirical evidence from the Alaska boreal forest suggests that every 1% reduction in overall plant diversity could render an average of 0.23% decline in individual tree productivity. Out of the 283 plant species of the region, we found that large woody plants generally have greater PII values than other species. This theoretical model would facilitate the integration of biological conservation in the international campaign against several pressing global issues involving energy use, climate change, and poverty.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗
USGS2015

Suburbanization, estrogen contamination, and sex ratio in wild amphibian populations

Research on endocrine disruption in frog populations, such as shifts in sex ratios and feminization of males, has predominantly focused on agricultural pesticides. Recent evidence suggests that suburban landscapes harbor amphibian populations exhibiting similar levels of endocrine disruption; however the endocrine disrupting chemical (EDC) sources are unknown. Here, we show that sex ratios of metamorphosing frogs become increasingly female-dominated along a suburbanization gradient. We further show that suburban ponds are frequently contaminated by the classical estrogen estrone and a variety of EDCs produced by plants (phytoestrogens), and that the diversity of organic EDCs is correlated with the extent of developed land use and cultivated lawn and gardens around a pond. Our work also raises the possibility that trace-element contamination associated with human land use around suburban ponds may be contributing to the estrogenic load within suburban freshwaters and constitutes another source of estrogenic exposure for wildlife. These data suggest novel, unexplored pathways of EDC contamination in human-altered environments. In particular, we propose that vegetation changes associated with suburban neighborhoods (e.g., from forests to lawns and ornamental plants) increase the distribution of phytoestrogens in surface waters. The result of frog sex ratios varying as a function of human land use implicates a role for environmental modulation of sexual differentiation in amphibians, which are assumed to only have genetic sex determination. Overall, we show that endocrine disruption is widespread in suburban frog populations and that the causes are likely diverse.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗