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USGS2010

Genetic introgression and the survival of Florida panther kittens

Estimates of survival for the young of a species are critical for population models. These models can often be improved by determining the effects of management actions and population abundance on this demographic parameter. We used multiple sources of data collected during 1982–2008 and a live-recapture dead-recovery modeling framework to estimate and model survival of Florida panther ( Puma concolor coryi ) kittens (age 0–1 year). Overall, annual survival of Florida panther kittens was 0.323 ± 0.071 (SE), which was lower than estimates used in previous population models. In 1995, female pumas from Texas ( P. c. stanleyana ) were released into occupied panther range as part of an intentional introgression program to restore genetic variability. We found that kitten survival generally increased with degree of admixture: F 1 admixed and backcrossed to Texas kittens survived better than canonical Florida panther and backcrossed to canonical kittens. Average heterozygosity positively influenced kitten and older panther survival, whereas index of panther abundance negatively influenced kitten survival. Our results provide strong evidence for the positive population-level impact of genetic introgression on Florida panthers. Our approach to integrate data from multiple sources was effective at improving robustness as well as precision of estimates of Florida panther kitten survival, and can be useful in estimating vital rates for other elusive species with sparse data.

Florida↗

USGS2011

Developing effective sampling designs for monitoring natural resources in Alaskan national parks: an example using simulations and vegetation data

Monitoring natural resources in Alaskan national parks is challenging because of their remoteness, limited accessibility, and high sampling costs. We describe an iterative, three-phased process for developing sampling designs based on our efforts to establish a vegetation monitoring program in southwest Alaska. In the first phase, we defined a sampling frame based on land ownership and specific vegetated habitats within the park boundaries and used Path Distance analysis tools to create a GIS layer that delineated portions of each park that could be feasibly accessed for ground sampling. In the second phase, we used simulations based on landcover maps to identify size and configuration of the ground sampling units (single plots or grids of plots) and to refine areas to be potentially sampled. In the third phase, we used a second set of simulations to estimate sample size and sampling frequency required to have a reasonable chance of detecting a minimum trend in vegetation cover for a specified time period and level of statistical confidence. Results of the first set of simulations indicated that a spatially balanced random sample of single plots from the most common landcover types yielded the most efficient sampling scheme. Results of the second set of simulations were compared with field data and indicated that we should be able to detect at least a 25% change in vegetation attributes over 31. years by sampling 8 or more plots per year every five years in focal landcover types. This approach would be especially useful in situations where ground sampling is restricted by access.

Alaska↗

USGS2011

The role of demographic compensation theory in incidental take assessments for endangered species

Many endangered species laws provide exceptions to legislated prohibitions through incidental take provisions as long as take is the result of unintended consequences of an otherwise legal activity. These allowances presumably invoke the theory of demographic compensation, commonly applied to harvested species, by allowing limited harm as long as the probability of the species' survival or recovery is not reduced appreciably. Demographic compensation requires some density-dependent limits on survival or reproduction in a species' annual cycle that can be alleviated through incidental take. Using a population model for piping plovers in the Great Plains, we found that when the population is in rapid decline or when there is no density dependence, the probability of quasi-extinction increased linearly with increasing take. However, when the population is near stability and subject to density-dependent survival, there was no relationship between quasi-extinction probability and take rates. We note however, that a brief examination of piping plover demography and annual cycles suggests little room for compensatory capacity. We argue that a population's capacity for demographic compensation of incidental take should be evaluated when considering incidental allowances because compensation is the only mechanism whereby a population can absorb the negative effects of take without incurring a reduction in the probability of survival in the wild. With many endangered species there is probably little known about density dependence and compensatory capacity. Under these circumstances, using multiple system models (with and without compensation) to predict the population's response to incidental take and implementing follow-up monitoring to assess species response may be valuable in increasing knowledge and improving future decision making.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS2011

Which uncertainty? Using expert elicitation and expected value of information to design an adaptive program

Natural resource management is plagued with uncertainty of many kinds, but not all uncertainties are equally important to resolve. The promise of adaptive management is that learning in the short-term will improve management in the long-term; that promise is best kept if the focus of learning is on those uncertainties that most impede achievement of management objectives. In this context, an existing tool of decision analysis, the expected value of perfect information (EVPI), is particularly valuable in identifying the most important uncertainties. Expert elicitation can be used to develop preliminary predictions of management response under a series of hypotheses, as well as prior weights for those hypotheses, and the EVPI can be used to determine how much management could improve if uncertainty was resolved. These methods were applied to management of whooping cranes ( Grus americana ), an endangered migratory bird that is being reintroduced in several places in North America. The Eastern Migratory Population of whooping cranes had exhibited almost no successful reproduction through 2009. Several dozen hypotheses can be advanced to explain this failure, and many of them lead to very different management responses. An expert panel articulated the hypotheses, provided prior weights for them, developed potential management strategies, and made predictions about the response of the population to each strategy under each hypothesis. Multi-criteria decision analysis identified a preferred strategy in the face of uncertainty, and analysis of the expected value of information identified how informative each strategy could be. These results provide the foundation for design of an adaptive management program.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS2012

Genetic diversity of a newly established population of golden eagles on the Channel Islands, California

Gene flow can have profound effects on the genetic diversity of a founding population depending on the number and relationship among colonizers and the duration of the colonization event. Here we used data from nuclear microsatellite and mitochondrial DNA control region loci to assess genetic diversity in golden eagles of the recently colonized Channel Islands, California. Genetic diversity in the Channel Island population was low, similar to signatures observed for other recent colonizing island populations. Differences in levels of genetic diversity and structure observed between mainland California and the islands suggests that few individuals were involved in the initial founding event, and may have comprised a family group. The spatial genetic structure observed between Channel Island and mainland California golden eagle populations across marker types, and genetic signature of population decline observed for the Channel Island population, suggest a single or relatively quick colonization event. Polarity in gene flow estimates based on mtDNA confirm an initial colonization of the Channel Islands by mainland golden eagles, but estimates from microsatellite data suggest that golden eagles on the islands were dispersing more recently to the mainland, possibly after reaching the carrying capacity of the island system. These results illustrate the strength of founding events on the genetic diversity of a population, and confirm that changes to genetic diversity can occur within just a few generations.

California↗

USGS2012

Summer-time use of west coast U. S. National Marine Sanctuaries by migrating sooty shearwaters ( Puffinus griseus )

Non-breeding sooty shearwaters are the most abundant seabird in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem (CCLME) during boreal spring and summer months. This, combined with relatively great energy demands, reliance on patchy, shoaling prey (krill, squid, and forage fishes), and unconstrained mobility free from central-place-foraging demands—make shearwaters useful indicators of ecosystem variability. During 2008 and 2009, we used satellite telemetry to evaluate shearwater ranging patterns throughout the CCLME and specifically within the US Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) among birds captured at three locations: Columbia River Plume, WA; Monterey Bay, CA; and Santa Barbara Channel, CA. Shearwaters ranged throughout the entire CCLME from southeast Alaska to southern Baja California, Mexico. Within the EEZ during 2008 and 2009, shearwaters spent 68% and 46% of time over the shelf (<200 m), 27% and 43% of time over the slope (200–1000 m), and 5% and 11% of time over the continental rise and abyssal regions (>1000 m), respectively. In 2008 and 2009, shearwaters spent 22% and 25% of their time in the EEZ within the five west coast National Marine Sanctuaries, respectively; high utilization occurred in non-sanctuary waters of the EEZ. Shearwater utilization distribution (based on the Brownianbridge movement model) among sanctuaries was disproportionate according to sanctuary availability (based on area) within the EEZ. Shearwaters utilized the Monterey Bay sanctuary (2008, 2009) and the Channel Islands sanctuary (2009) disproportionately more than other sanctuaries. Although all five sanctuaries were used by shearwaters, waters outside sanctuary zones appeared significantly more important and likely supported large aggregations of shearwaters. Utilization distributions among individual birds from three discrete capture locations were variable and revealed greater similarity in space-use sharing within capture-location groupings and during 2008 when shearwaters were more aggregated than in 2009. We identified several regional ‘‘habitat hotspot’’ areas, including the Columbia River Plume, Cape Blanco, Monterey Bay, Estero/San Luis Obispo Bays, and the eastern Santa Barbara Channel through the inner Southern California Bight.

California;Washington↗

USGS2012

Is science in danger of sanctifying the wolf?

Historically the wolf ( Canis lupus ) was hated and extirpated from most of the contiguous United States. The federal Endangered Species Act fostered wolf protection and reintroduction which improved the species' image. Wolf populations reached biological recovery in the Northern Rocky Mountains and upper Midwest, and the animal has been delisted from the Endangered Species List in those areas. Numerous studies in National Parks suggest that wolves, through trophic cascades, have caused ecosystems to change in ways many people consider positive. Several studies have been conducted in Yellowstone National Park where wolf interactions with their prey, primarily elk ( Cervus elaphus ), are thought to have caused reduction of numbers or changes in movements and behavior. Some workers consider the latter changes to have led to a behaviorally-mediated trophic cascade. Either the elk reduction or the behavioral changes are hypothesized to have fostered growth in browse, primarily willows ( Salix spp.) and aspen ( Populus spp.), and that growth has resulted in increased beavers ( Castor Canadensis ), songbirds, and hydrologic changes. The wolf's image thus has gained an iconic cachet. However, later research challenges several earlier studies' findings such that earlier conclusions are now controversial; especially those related to causes of browse regrowth. In any case, any such cascading effects of wolves found in National Parks would have little relevance to most of the wolf range because of overriding anthropogenic influences there on wolves, prey, vegetation, and other parts of the food web. The wolf is neither a saint nor a sinner except to those who want to make it so.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS2012

Effects of a non-native biocontrol weevil, Larinus planus, and other emerging threats on populations of the federally threatened Pitcher's thistle, Cirsium pitcheri

Larinus planus Frabicius (Curculionidae), is a seed-eating weevil that was inadvertently introduced into the US and was subsequently distributed in the US and Canada for the control of noxious thistle species of rangelands. It has been detected recently in the federally threatened Pitcher's thistle (Cirsium pitcheri). We assayed weevil damage in a natural population of Pitcher's thistle at Whitefish Dunes State Park, Door County, WI and quantified the impact on fecundity. We then estimated the impact of this introduced weevil and other emerging threats on two natural, uninvaded populations of Pitcher's thistle for which we have long-term demographic data for 16 yr (Wilderness State Park, Emmet County, MI) and 23 yr (Miller High Dunes, Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore, Porter County, IN). We used transition matrices to determine growth rates and project the potential effects of weevil damage, inbreeding, goldfinch predation, and vegetative succession on Pitcher's thistle population viability. Based on our models, weevil seed predation reduced population growth rate by 10–12%, but this reduction was enough to reduce time to extinction from 24 yr to 13 yr and 8 yr to 5 yr in the MI and IN population, respectively. This impact is particularly severe, given most populations of Pitcher's thistle throughout its range hover near or below replacement. This is the first report of unanticipated ecological impacts from a biocontrol agent on natural populations of Cirsium pitcheri.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS2013

Localized extinction of an arboreal desert lizard caused by habitat fragmentation

We adopted a species’ perspective for predicting extinction risk in a small, endemic, and strictly scansorial lizard ( Urosaurus nigricaudus ), in an old (∼60 year) and highly fragmented (8% habitat remaining) agricultural landscape from the Sonoran Desert, Mexico. We genotyped 10 microsatellite loci in 280 individuals from 11 populations in fragmented and continuous habitat. Individual dispersal was restricted to less than 400 m, according to analyses of spatial autocorrelation and spatially explicit Bayesian assignment methods. Within this scale, continuous areas and narrow washes with native vegetation allowed high levels of gene flow over tens of kilometers. In the absence of the native vegetation, cleared areas and highways were identified as partial barriers. In contrast, outside the scale of dispersal, cleared areas behaved as complete barriers, and surveys corroborated the species went extinct after a few decades in all small (less than 45 ha), isolated habitat fragments. No evidence for significant loss of genetic diversity was found, but results suggested fragmentation increased the spatial scale of movements, relatedness, genetic structure, and potentially affected sex-biased dispersal. A plausible threshold of individual dispersal predicted only 23% of all fragments in the landscape were linked with migration from continuous habitat, while complete barriers isolated the majority of fragments. Our study suggested limited dispersal, coupled with an inability to use a homogeneous and hostile matrix without vegetation and shade, could result in frequent time-delayed extinctions of small ectotherms in highly fragmented desert landscapes, particularly considering an increase in the risk of overheating and a decrease in dispersal potential induced by global warming.

Sonoran Desert↗

USGS2013

Response of palila and other subalpine Hawaiian forest bird species to prolonged drought and habitat degradation by feral ungulates

Extinction has claimed half of all historically-known Hawaiian passerines, and today many extant species are increasingly threatened due to the combined effects of invasive species and climate change. Habitat disturbance has affected populations of feeding specialists most profoundly, and our results indicate that specialists continue to be most vulnerable, although even some abundant, introduced, generalist species also may be affected. Surveys of passerines during 1998–2011 in subalpine woodland habitat on Mauna Kea Volcano, Island of Hawai′i, revealed that the abundance of the critically endangered palila ( Loxioides bailleui ), a seed specialist, declined by 79% after 2003. The ′akiapōlā′au ( Hemignathus munroi ), an endangered specialist insectivore, was not detected in the survey area after 1998. The Hawai′i ′amakihi ( Hemignathus virens virens ), a generalist feeder and the most abundant species on Mauna Kea, was the only native species to maintain a stable population. The Japanese white-eye ( Zosterops japonicus ), a well-entrenched generalist and one of the three most common introduced species, declined. Drought prevailed in 74% of months during 2000–2011, and dry conditions contributed to the recent decline of the palila by reducing the annual māmane ( Sophora chrysophylla ) seed pod crop, which influences palila breeding and survival. Sustained browsing by introduced ungulates also lowered habitat carrying capacity, and their elimination should reduce the effects of drought and promote forest restoration. Our results illustrate how the feeding ecology of a species can influence its response to interacting environmental perturbations, and they underscore the value of long-term monitoring to detect population trends of sensitive species.

Hawai'i↗

USGS2013

Responses of riparian reptile communities to damming and urbanization

Various anthropogenic pressures, including habitat loss, threaten reptile populations worldwide. Riparian zones are critical habitat for many reptile species, but these habitats are also frequently modified by anthropogenic activities. Our study investigated the effects of two riparian habitat modifications-damming and urbanization-on overall and species-specific reptile occupancy patterns. We used time-constrained search techniques to compile encounter histories for 28 reptile species at 21 different sites along the Broad and Pacolet Rivers of South Carolina. Using a hierarchical Bayesian analysis, we modeled reptile occupancy responses to a site's distance upstream from dam, distance downstream from dam, and percent urban land use. The mean occupancy response by the reptile community indicated that reptile occupancy and species richness were maximized when sites were farther upstream from dams. Species-specific occupancy estimates showed a similar trend of lower occupancy immediately upstream from dams. Although the mean occupancy response of the reptile community was positively related to distance downstream from dams, the occupancy response to distance downstream varied among species. Percent urban land use had little effect on the occupancy response of the reptile community or individual species. Our results indicate that the conditions of impoundments and subsequent degradation of the riparian zones upstream from dams may not provide suitable habitat for a number of reptile species.

North Carolina;South Carolina↗

USGS2013

Disease in a dynamic landscape: host behavior and wildfire reduce amphibian chytrid infection

Disturbances are often expected to magnify effects of disease, but these effects may depend on the ecology, behavior, and life history of both hosts and pathogens. In many ecosystems, wildfire is the dominant natural disturbance and thus could directly or indirectly affect dynamics of many diseases. To determine how probability of infection by the aquatic fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) varies relative to habitat use by individuals, wildfire, and host characteristics, we sampled 404 boreal toads ( Anaxyrus boreas boreas ) across Glacier National Park, Montana (USA). Bd causes chytridiomycosis, an emerging infectious disease linked with widespread amphibian declines, including the boreal toad. Probability of infection was similar for females and the combined group of males and juveniles. However, only 9% of terrestrial toads were infected compared to >30% of aquatic toads, and toads captured in recently burned areas were half as likely to be infected as toads in unburned areas. We suspect these large differences in infection reflect habitat choices by individuals that affect pathogen exposure and persistence, especially in burned forests where warm, arid conditions could limit Bd growth. Our results show that natural disturbances such as wildfire and the resulting diverse habitats can influence infection across large landscapes, potentially maintaining local refuges and host behaviors that facilitate evolution of disease resistance.

Montana↗

USGS2013

Human-caused mortality influences spatial population dynamics: pumas in landscapes with varying mortality risks

An understanding of how stressors affect dispersal attributes and the contribution of local populations to multi-population dynamics are of immediate value to basic and applied ecology. Puma (Puma concolor) populations are expected to be influenced by inter-population movements and susceptible to human-induced source–sink dynamics. Using long-term datasets we quantified the contribution of two puma populations to operationally define them as sources or sinks. The puma population in the Northern Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (NGYE) was largely insulated from human-induced mortality by Yellowstone National Park. Pumas in the western Montana Garnet Mountain system were exposed to greater human-induced mortality, which changed over the study due to the closure of a 915 km 2 area to hunting. The NGYE’s population growth depended on inter-population movements, as did its ability to act as a source to the larger region. The heavily hunted Garnet area was a sink with a declining population until the hunting closure, after which it became a source with positive intrinsic growth and a 16× increase in emigration. We also examined the spatial and temporal characteristics of individual dispersal attributes (emigration, dispersal distance, establishment success) of subadult pumas (N = 126). Human-caused mortality was found to negatively impact all three dispersal components. Our results demonstrate the influence of human-induced mortality on not only within population vital rates, but also inter-population vital rates, affecting the magnitude and mechanisms of local population’s contribution to the larger metapopulation.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS2013

To the editor: Reply confuses newsprint with media

“Is Science in Danger of Sanctifying the Wolf” (Mech, 2012), contends that some scientists have claimed that wolf (Canis lupus) restoration has led to many ecological benefits lower in the food chain but that other scientists have questioned the evidence for those claims. Furthermore, my article claims that “the media become complicit [in promoting positive studies about wolves] by immediately publicizing such studies (Table 1)….” Dr. Bruskotter’s letter (Bruskotter, 2012) contends that Houston et al. (2010) refute that statement. However, Houston et al. (2010) covered only newsprint, including many local newspapers dating back to 1999 before most of the scientific articles I mentioned were published. My article said nothing about newsprint or news media. It stated “media” which of course includes radio, TV, blogs, websites, magazines, social media, etc. These types of media reach a wider and often different audience than newsprint. The Houston et al. (2010)analysis included none of these latter types of media so does not refute my statements.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS2013

White-nose syndrome is likely to extirpate the endangered Indiana bat over large parts of its range

White-nose syndrome, a novel fungal pathogen spreading quickly through cave-hibernating bat species in east and central North America, is responsible for killing millions of bats. We developed a stochastic, stage-based population model to forecast the population dynamics of the endangered Indiana bat (Myotis sodalis) subject to white-nose syndrome. Our population model explicitly incorporated environmentally imposed annual variability in survival and reproductive rates and demographic stochasticity in predictions of extinction. With observed rates of disease spread, >90% of wintering populations were predicted to experience white-nose syndrome within 20 years, causing the proportion of populations at the quasi-extinction threshold of less than 250 females to increase by 33.9% over 50 years. At the species’ lowest median population level, ca. year 2022, we predicted 13.7% of the initial population to remain, totaling 28,958 females (95% CI = 13,330; 92,335). By 2022, only 12 of the initial 52 wintering populations were expected to possess wintering populations of >250 females. If the species can acquire immunity to the disease, we predict 3.7% of wintering populations to be above 250 females after 50 years (year 2057) after a 69% decline in abundance (from 210,741 to 64,768 [95% CI = 49,386; 85,360] females). At the nadir of projections, we predicted regional quasi-extirpation of wintering populations in 2 of 4 Recovery Units while in a third region, where the species is currently most abundant, >95% of the wintering populations were predicted to be below 250 females. Our modeling suggests white-nose syndrome is capable of bringing about severe numerical reduction in population size and local and regional extirpation of the Indiana bat.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS2014

Normative standards for land use in Vermont: Implications for biodiversity

The conversion of natural lands to developed uses poses a great threat to global terrestrial biodiversity. Natural resource managers, tasked with managing wildlife as a public trust, require techniques for predicting how much and where wildlife habitat is likely to be converted in the future. Here, we develop a methodology to estimate the “social carrying capacity for development” – SK d – for 251 towns across the state of Vermont, USA. SK d represents town residents’ minimum acceptable human population size and level of development within town boundaries. To estimate SK d across towns within the state of Vermont (USA), as well as the average state-wide SK d , we administered a visual preference survey ( n = 1505 responses) to Vermont residents, and asked respondents to rate alternative landuse scenarios in a fictional Vermont town on a scale of +4 (highly acceptable) to −4 (highly unacceptable). We additionally collected demographic data such as age and income, as well as ancillary information such as participation in town-planning meetings and location of residence. We used model selection and AIC to fit a cubic function to the response data, allowing us to estimate SK d at a town scale based on town demographic characteristics. On average, Vermonters had a SK d of 9.1% development on the landscape; this estimate is 68% higher than year 2000 levels for development (5.4%). Respondents indicated that management action to curb development was appropriate at 9.4% development (roughly the statewide SK d average). Management by local, regional, and state levels were considered acceptable for curbing development while federal level management of development was considered unacceptable. Given a scenario where development levels were at SK d , we predicted a 16,753 km 2 reduction in forested land (−11.16%) and a 1038 km 2 reduction in farmland (−60.45%). Such changes would dramatically alter biodiversity patterns state-wide. In a companion paper, we estimate how these changes would affect the distribution of wildlife species.

Vermont↗

USGS2014

Acceptability of residential development in a regional landscape: Potential effects on wildlife occupancy patterns

The conversion of natural lands to developed uses may pose the single greatest human threat to global terrestrial biodiversity. Continued human growth and development over the next century will further exacerbate these effects of habitat loss and fragmentation. Natural resource managers are tasked with managing wildlife as a public trust, yet often have little say in land use decisions. Generally speaking, decision makers could benefit from an understanding of what different regulations mean in terms of wildlife distribution. In a previous paper ( Bettigole et al., 2013 ), we surveyed town residents throughout Vermont to measure how respondents feel about a range of development levels within their town boundaries. We estimated the “social carrying capacity for development” – or SK d – for 251 towns in Vermont. SK d provides an estimate of the level of developed land cover classes that town residents deem “acceptable” within their town boundaries. In this paper, we design a framework for linking the town-specific SK d estimates with the wildlife distribution patterns for three wide-ranging mammalian species: American black bear ( Ursus americanus ), fisher ( Martes pennanti ), and bobcat ( Lynx rufus ). We simulated landscape conditions at SK d for each town in Vermont, and then used existing occupancy models for the three target species to spatially map and compare occupancy rates in the baseline year 2000 with occupancy rates at SK d . With nearly 90% of Vermont towns willing to increase developed landcover classes within town boundaries compared to baseline levels, significant state-wide changes in occupancy rates were predicted for all three focal species. Average occupancy rates declined by −15.9% and −3.1% for black bear and bobcats, respectively. Average occupancy rates for fisher increased by 9.0%. This study provides a method for linking development standards within a town with wildlife occurrence. Across towns, the methodology spatially identifies areas that may be at risk of future development, as well as identifying areas where wildlife distribution patterns may face future change as a result of increased human population growth and development.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS2014

Predicting impacts of future human population growth and development on occupancy rates of forest-dependent birds

Forest loss and fragmentation are among the largest threats to forest-dwelling wildlife species today, and projected increases in human population growth are expected to increase these threats in the next century. We combined spatially-explicit growth models with wildlife distribution models to predict the effects of human development on 5 forest-dependent bird species in Vermont, New Hampshire, and Massachusetts, USA. We used single-species occupancy models to derive the probability of occupancy for each species across the study area in the years 2000 and 2050. Over half a million new housing units were predicted to be added to the landscape. The maximum change in housing density was nearly 30 houses per hectare; however, 30% of the towns in the study area were projected to add less than 1 housing unit per hectare. In the face of predicted human growth, the overall occupancy of each species decreased by as much as 38% (ranging from 19% to 38% declines in the worst-case scenario) in the year 2050. These declines were greater outside of protected areas than within protected lands. Ninety-seven percent of towns experienced some decline in species occupancy within their borders, highlighting the value of spatially-explicit models. The mean decrease in occupancy probability within towns ranged from 3% for hairy woodpecker to 8% for ovenbird and hermit thrush. Reductions in occupancy probability occurred on the perimeters of cities and towns where exurban development is predicted to increase in the study area. This spatial approach to wildlife planning provides data to evaluate trade-offs between development scenarios and forest-dependent wildlife species.

Biological Conservation↗