Normative standards for land use in Vermont: Implications for biodiversity

Charles A. Bettigole; Therese M. Donovan; Robert Manning; John Austin

doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2013.07.009

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Normative standards for land use in Vermont: Implications for biodiversity

Charles A. Bettigole·Therese M. Donovan·Robert Manning·John Austin

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Abstract

The conversion of natural lands to developed uses poses a great threat to global terrestrial biodiversity. Natural resource managers, tasked with managing wildlife as a public trust, require techniques for predicting how much and where wildlife habitat is likely to be converted in the future. Here, we develop a methodology to estimate the “social carrying capacity for development” – SK d – for 251 towns across the state of Vermont, USA. SK d represents town residents’ minimum acceptable human population size and level of development within town boundaries. To estimate SK d across towns within the state of Vermont (USA), as well as the average state-wide SK d , we administered a visual preference survey ( n = 1505 responses) to Vermont residents, and asked respondents to rate alternative landuse scenarios in a fictional Vermont town on a scale of +4 (highly acceptable) to −4 (highly unacceptable). We additionally collected demographic data such as age and income, as well as ancillary information such as participation in town-planning meetings and location of residence. We used model selection and AIC to fit a cubic function to the response data, allowing us to estimate SK d at a town scale based on town demographic characteristics. On average, Vermonters had a SK d of 9.1% development on the landscape; this estimate is 68% higher than year 2000 levels for development (5.4%). Respondents indicated that management action to curb development was appropriate at 9.4% development (roughly the statewide SK d average). Management by local, regional, and state levels were considered acceptable for curbing development while federal level management of development was considered unacceptable. Given a scenario where development levels were at SK d , we predicted a 16,753 km 2 reduction in forested land (−11.16%) and a 1038 km 2 reduction in farmland (−60.45%). Such changes would dramatically alter biodiversity patterns state-wide. In a companion paper, we estimate how these changes would affect the distribution of wildlife species.

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Source-reported bounding extent: 42.726853° to 45.016659° latitude; -73.43774° to -71.464555° longitude. This indicates report coverage, not an exact sampling location. View area on OpenStreetMap.

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Charles A. Bettigole, Therese M. Donovan, Robert Manning, John Austin. 2014. Normative standards for land use in Vermont: Implications for biodiversity. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2013.07.009

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