SEARCH · Search USGS

Results for “Proceedings of the Natural Academy of Sciences”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

USGS2015

Opinion: Endogenizing culture in sustainability science research and policy

Integrating the analysis of natural and social systems to achieve sustainability has been an international scientific goal for years ( 1 , 2 ). However, full integration has proven challenging, especially in regard to the role of culture ( 3 ), which is often missing from the complex sustainability equation. To enact policies and practices that can achieve sustainability, researchers and policymakers must do a better job of accounting for culture, difficult though this task may be. The concept of culture is complex, with hundreds of definitions that for years have generated disagreement among social scientists ( 4 ). Understood at the most basic level, culture constitutes shared values, beliefs, and norms through which people “see,” interpret, or give meaning to ideas, actions, and environments. Culture is often used synonymously with “worldviews” or “cosmologies” ( 5 , 6 ) to explain the patterned ways of assigning meanings and interpretations among individuals within groups. Used in this way, culture has been found to have only limited empirical support as an explanation of human risk perception ( 7 , 8 ) and environmentalism ( 9 ).

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗

USGS2005

Degassing Lakes Nyos and Monoun: Defusing certain disaster

Since the catastrophic releases of CO 2 in the 1980s, Lakes Nyos and Monoun in Cameroon experienced CO 2 recharge at alarming rates of up to 80 mol/m 2 per yr. Total gas pressures reached 8.3 and 15.6 bar in Monoun (2003) and Nyos (2001), respectively, resulting in gas saturation levels up to 97%. These natural hazards are distinguished by the potential for mitigation to prevent future disasters. Controlled degassing was initiated at Nyos (2001) and Monoun (2003) amid speculation it could inadvertently destabilize the lakes and trigger another gas burst. Our measurements indicate that water column structure has not been compromised by the degassing and local stability is increasing in the zones of degassing. Furthermore, gas content has been reduced in the lakes ≈12-14%. However, as gas is removed, the pressure at pipe inlets is reduced, and the removal rate will decrease over time. Based on 12 years of limnological measurements we developed a model of future removal rates and gas inventory, which predicts that in Monoun the current pipe will remove ≈30% of the gas remaining before the natural gas recharge balances the removal rate. In Nyos the single pipe will remove ≈25% of the gas remaining by 2015; this slow removal extends the present risk to local populations. More pipes and continued vigilance are required to reduce the risk of repeat disasters. Our model indicates that 75-99% of the gas remaining would be removed by 2010 with two pipes in Monoun and five pipes in Nyos, substantially reducing the risks.

Lakes Nyos and Monoun↗

USGS2010

Decadal trends in marine reserves reveal differential rates of change in direct and indirect effects

Decadal-scale observations of marine reserves suggest that indirect effects on taxa that occur through cascading trophic interactions take longer to develop than direct effects on target species. Combining and analyzing a unique set of long-term time series of ecologic data in and out of fisheries closures from disparate regions, we found that the time to initial detection of direct effects on target species (+ or -SE) was 5.13 + or - 1.9 years, whereas initial detection of indirect effects on other taxa, which were often trait mediated, took significantly longer (13.1 + or - 2.0 years). Most target species showed initial direct effects, but their trajectories over time were highly variable. Many target species continued to increase, some leveled off, and others decreased. Decreases were due to natural fluctuations, fishing impacts from outside reserves, or indirect effects from target species at higher trophic levels. The average duration of stable periods for direct effects was 6.2 + or - 1.2 years, even in studies of more than 15 years. For indirect effects, stable periods averaged 9.1 + or - 1.6 years, although this was not significantly different from direct effects. Populations of directly targeted species were more stable in reserves than in fished areas, suggesting increased ecologic resilience. This is an important benefit of marine reserves with respect to their function as a tool for conservation and restoration.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences↗

USGS1997

Ambient UV-B radiation causes deformities in amphibian embryos

There has been a great deal of recent attention on the suspected increase in amphibian deformities. However, most reports of amphibian deformities have been anecdotal, and no experiments in the field under natural conditions have been performed to investigate this phenomenon. Under laboratory conditions, a variety of agents can induce deformities in amphibians. We investigated one of these agents, UV-B radiation, in field experiments, as a cause for amphibian deformities. We monitored hatching success and development in long-toed salamanders under UV-B shields and in regimes that allowed UV-B radiation. Embryos under UV-B shields had a significantly higher hatching rate and fewer deformities, and developed more quickly than those exposed to UV-B. Deformities may contribute directly to embryo mortality, and they may affect an individual's subsequent survival after hatching.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗

USGS2021

Species invasion progressively disrupts the trophic structure of native food webs

Species invasions can have substantial impacts on native species and ecosystems, with important consequences for biodiversity. How these disturbances drive changes in the trophic structure of native food webs through time is poorly understood. Here, we quantify trophic disruption in freshwater food webs to invasion by an apex fish predator, lake trout, using an extensive stable isotope dataset across a natural gradient of uninvaded and invaded lakes in the northern Rocky Mountains, USA. Lake trout invasion increased fish diet variability (trophic dispersion), displaced native fishes from their reference diets (trophic displacement), and reorganized macroinvertebrate communities, indicating strong food web disruption. Trophic dispersion was greatest 25 to 50 y after colonization and dissipated as food webs stabilized in later stages of invasion (>50 y). For the native apex predator, bull trout, trophic dispersion preceded trophic displacement, leading to their functional loss in late-invasion food webs. Our results demonstrate how invasive species progressively disrupt native food webs via trophic dispersion and displacement, ultimately yielding biological communities strongly divergent from those in uninvaded ecosystems.

Montana↗

USGS1994

Mammal extinctions, body size, and paleotemperature

There is a general inverse relationship between the natural logarithm of tooth area (a body size indicator) of some fossil mammals and paleotemperature during approximately 2.9 million years of the early Eocene in the Bighorn Basin of northwest Wyoming. When mean temperatures became warmer, tooth areas tended to become smaller. During colder times, larger species predominated; these generally became larger or remained the same size. Paleotemperature trends also markedly affected patterns of local (and, perhaps, regional) extinction and immigration. New species appeared as immigrants during or near the hottest (smaller forms) and coldest (larger forms) intervals. Paleotemperature trend reversals commonly resulted in the ultimate extinction of both small forms (during cooling intervals) and larger forms (during warming intervals). These immigrations and extinctions mark faunal turnovers that were also modulated by sharp increases in sediment accumulation rate.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗

USGS2003

Sexual selection affects local extinction and turnover in bird communities

Predicting extinction risks has become a central goal for conservation and evolutionary biologists interested in population and community dynamics. Several factors have been put forward to explain risks of extinction, including ecological and life history characteristics of individuals. For instance, factors that affect the balance between natality and mortality can have profound effects on population persistence. Sexual selection has been identified as one such factor. Populations under strong sexual selection experience a number of costs ranging from increased predation and parasitism to enhanced sensitivity to environmental and demographic stochasticity. These findings have led to the prediction that local extinction rates should be higher for species/populations with intense sexual selection. We tested this prediction by analyzing the dynamics of natural bird communities at a continental scale over a period of 21 years (1975-1996), using relevant statistical tools. In agreement with the theoretical prediction, we found that sexual selection increased risks of local extinction (dichromatic birds had on average a 23% higher local extinction rate than monochromatic species). However, despite higher local extinction probabilities, the number of dichromatic species did not decrease over the period considered in this study. This pattern was caused by higher local turnover rates of dichromatic species, resulting in relatively stable communities for both groups of species. Our results suggest that these communities function as metacommunities, with frequent local extinctions followed by colonization. Anthropogenic factors impeding dispersal might therefore have a significant impact on the global persistence of sexually selected species.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences↗

USGS2015

Reasons anglers did not respond to an internet survey and evaluation of data quality

Natural resource management agencies have traditionally used statewide mail surveys to gather information from anglers, but cost savings and faster returns occur using the internet. This study examined mail or internet fishery survey return rates and associated data by license type of South Dakota resident anglers. Junior anglers (ages 16-18; Junior Combination license) had the lowest internet and mail survey return rates (20% and 28%, respectively), followed by adult anglers (ages 19-64; Adult Fishing and Adult Combination licenses; 30% and 39%, respectively), and senior anglers (ages 65+; Senior Fishing and Senior Combination licenses; 42% and 66%, respectively). The three age groups were significantly different on three email use characteristics (shared email, frequency of use, and comfort level). The primary reason for not responding to the internet survey was not receiving or noticing the email request, and secondarily, being too busy to respond. Although having a relatively low response rate, data collected by the internet compared to follow-up mail surveys of internet non-respondents were similar.

Proceedings of the South Dakota Academy of Science↗

USGS2012

Accumulation of impact markers in desert wetlands and implications for the Younger Dryas impact hypothesis

The Younger Dryas impact hypothesis contends that an extraterrestrial object exploded over North America at 12.9 ka, initiating the Younger Dryas cold event, the extinction of many North American megafauna, and the demise of the Clovis archeological culture. Although the exact nature and location of the proposed impact or explosion remain unclear, alleged evidence for the fallout comes from multiple sites across North America and a site in Belgium. At 6 of the 10 original sites (excluding the Carolina Bays), elevated concentrations of various "impact markers" were found in association with black mats that date to the onset of the Younger Dryas. Black mats are common features in paleowetland deposits and typically represent shallow marsh environments. In this study, we investigated black mats ranging in age from approximately 6 to more than 40 ka in the southwestern United States and the Atacama Desert of northern Chile. At 10 of 13 sites, we found elevated concentrations of iridium in bulk and magnetic sediments, magnetic spherules, and/or titanomagnetite grains within or at the base of black mats, regardless of their age or location, suggesting that elevated concentrations of these markers arise from processes common to wetland systems, and not a catastrophic extraterrestrial impact event.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗

USGS2016

Evaluating early-warning indicators of critical transitions in natural aquatic ecosystems

Ecosystems can show sudden and persistent changes in state despite only incremental changes in drivers. Such critical transitions are difficult to predict, because the state of the system often shows little change before the transition. Early-warning indicators (EWIs) are hypothesized to signal the loss of system resilience and have been shown to precede critical transitions in theoretical models, paleo-climate time series, and in laboratory as well as whole lake experiments. The generalizability of EWIs for detecting critical transitions in empirical time series of natural aquatic ecosystems remains largely untested, however. Here we assessed four commonly used EWIs on long-term datasets of five freshwater ecosystems that have experienced sudden, persistent transitions and for which the relevant ecological mechanisms and drivers are well understood. These case studies were categorized by three mechanisms that can generate critical transitions between alternative states: competition, trophic cascade, and intraguild predation. Although EWIs could be detected in most of the case studies, agreement among the four indicators was low. In some cases, EWIs were detected considerably ahead of the transition. Nonetheless, our results show that at present, EWIs do not provide reliable and consistent signals of impending critical transitions despite using some of the best routinely monitored freshwater ecosystems. Our analysis strongly suggests that a priori knowledge of the underlying mechanisms driving ecosystem transitions is necessary to identify relevant state variables for successfully monitoring EWIs.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗

USGS2016

Saharan dust nutrients promote Vibrio bloom formation in marine surface waters

Vibrio is a ubiquitous genus of marine bacteria, typically comprising a small fraction of the total microbial community in surface waters, but capable of becoming a dominant taxon in response to poorly characterized factors. Iron (Fe), often restricted by limited bioavailability and low external supply, is an essential micronutrient that can limit Vibrio growth. Vibrio species have robust metabolic capabilities and an array of Fe-acquisition mechanisms, and are able to respond rapidly to nutrient influx, yet Vibrio response to environmental pulses of Fe remains uncharacterized. Here we examined the population growth of Vibrio after natural and simulated pulses of atmospherically transported Saharan dust, an important and episodic source of Fe to tropical marine waters. As a model for opportunistic bacterial heterotrophs, we demonstrated that Vibrio proliferate in response to a broad range of dust-Fe additions at rapid timescales. Within 24 h of exposure, strains of Vibrio cholerae and Vibrio alginolyticus were able to directly use Saharan dust–Fe to support rapid growth. These findings were also confirmed with in situ field studies; arrival of Saharan dust in the Caribbean and subtropical Atlantic coincided with high levels of dissolved Fe, followed by up to a 30-fold increase of culturable Vibrio over background levels within 24 h. The relative abundance of Vibrio increased from &sim;1 to &sim;20% of the total microbial community. This study, to our knowledge, is the first to describe Vibrio response to Saharan dust nutrients, having implications at the intersection of marine ecology, Fe biogeochemistry, and both human and environmental health.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗

USGS2024

Paddlefish movement and dam passage in the Ohio and Kanawha Rivers, West Virginia

The Paddlefish ( Polyodon spathula ), a large-bodied and highly migratory species of large river systems, has experienced population declines or extirpation in parts of its native range. As an effort to reestablish a Paddlefish population in the Ohio River of West Virginia, the West Virginia Division of Natural Resources has stocked fingerling Paddlefish in the previous two decades. Post-stocking studies could assess the status of the reintroduced population, which includes collecting information on their seasonal movements and dam passage frequency through navigation dams of the Ohio and Kanawha Rivers. Using acoustic telemetry techniques, we monitored seasonal movements and assessed dam passage of five Paddlefish in the Robert C. Byrd Pool of the Ohio and Kanawha rivers. Paddlefish were highly mobile with two individuals using the entire R.C. Byrd Pool during the 11-month study period. Most movements occurred during the expected spawning period of April and May, where all individuals frequented the upper section of the pool in the Kanawha River. Downstream passage was documented for one individual at the R.C. Byrd lock during July 2023, but no evidence of upstream passage was documented for the locks at Racine (Ohio River) or Winfield (Kanawha River). Tagging of additional Paddlefish would be beneficial to increase sample size for future assessments and continue efforts toward the long-term conservation and management of Ohio River Paddlefish.

West Virginia↗

USGS2011

Host and viral ecology determine bat rabies seasonality and maintenance

Rabies is an acute viral infection that is typically fatal. Most rabies modeling has focused on disease dynamics and control within terrestrial mammals (e.g., raccoons and foxes). As such, rabies in bats has been largely neglected until recently. Because bats have been implicated as natural reservoirs for several emerging zoonotic viruses, including SARS-like corona viruses, henipaviruses, and lyssaviruses, understanding how pathogens are maintained within a population becomes vital. Unfortunately, little is known about maintenance mechanisms for any pathogen in bat populations. We present a mathematical model parameterized with unique data from an extensive study of rabies in a Colorado population of big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus) to elucidate general maintenance mechanisms. We propose that life history patterns of many species of temperate-zone bats, coupled with sufficiently long incubation periods, allows for rabies virus maintenance. Seasonal variability in bat mortality rates, specifically low mortality during hibernation, allows long-term bat population viability. Within viable bat populations, sufficiently long incubation periods allow enough infected individuals to enter hibernation and survive until the following year, and hence avoid an epizootic fadeout of rabies virus. We hypothesize that the slowing effects of hibernation on metabolic and viral activity maintains infected individuals and their pathogens until susceptibles from the annual birth pulse become infected and continue the cycle. This research provides a context to explore similar host ecology and viral dynamics that may explain seasonal patterns and maintenance of other bat-borne diseases.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗

USGS2025

Eradication efforts catalyze rapid evolution in an invasive predatory fish

pecies invasions spur costly and labor-intensive control efforts, yet even local eradication is seldom achieved. When control measures are initially effective, they may drive evolutionary adaptation that prevents full eradication, as has been documented for some chemical and biocontrol approaches. Although the intensity, directionality, and persistence of selection required to increase the frequency of resistant genotypes in complex natural ecosystems remains an open question, theory predicts that high mortality can cause life-history evolution even in the absence of a strong selective agent. Here, we use annually collected ecological and genetic data to show that rapid evolution of introduced smallmouth bass has undermined a 20-y manual suppression effort in a mid-sized lake. Despite nearly doubling annual mortality, our intensive control program produced a larger bass population dominated by young and early-maturing fish. These shifts were accompanied by large allele frequency changes in three genomic regions associated with earlier maturation and increased somatic growth. Our findings bear out the theoretical prediction that high mortality can drive evolutionary adaptation in target species. Controlling species invasions are worldwide practices that typically remove a substantial proportion of a population during each of many successive generations, hence life history adaptation may be commonplace. Such evolutionary responses could be salient in explaining the widespread failure of invasion control efforts. Genetic and phenotypic monitoring to detect cryptic adaptation and preemptive design of invader eradication programs to deliberately disrupt directional selection for resistance could improve invasion control outcomes.

New York↗

USGS2014

Strong influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation on flood risk around the world

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most dominant interannual signal of climate variability and has a strong influence on climate over large parts of the world. In turn, it strongly influences many natural hazards (such as hurricanes and droughts) and their resulting socioeconomic impacts, including economic damage and loss of life. However, although ENSO is known to influence hydrology in many regions of the world, little is known about its influence on the socioeconomic impacts of floods (i.e., flood risk). To address this, we developed a modeling framework to assess ENSO’s influence on flood risk at the global scale, expressed in terms of affected population and gross domestic product and economic damages. We show that ENSO exerts strong and widespread influences on both flood hazard and risk. Reliable anomalies of flood risk exist during El Niño or La Niña years, or both, in basins spanning almost half (44%) of Earth’s land surface. Our results show that climate variability, especially from ENSO, should be incorporated into disaster-risk analyses and policies. Because ENSO has some predictive skill with lead times of several seasons, the findings suggest the possibility to develop probabilistic flood-risk projections, which could be used for improved disaster planning. The findings are also relevant in the context of climate change. If the frequency and/or magnitude of ENSO events were to change in the future, this finding could imply changes in flood-risk variations across almost half of the world’s terrestrial regions.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences↗

USGS2015

Biodiversity influences plant productivity through niche–efficiency

The loss of biodiversity is threatening ecosystem productivity and services worldwide, spurring efforts to quantify its effects on the functioning of natural ecosystems. Previous research has focused on the positive role of biodiversity on resource acquisition (i.e., niche complementarity), but a lack of study on resource utilization efficiency, a link between resource and productivity, has rendered it difficult to quantify the biodiversity–ecosystem functioning relationship. Here we demonstrate that biodiversity loss reduces plant productivity, other things held constant, through theory, empirical evidence, and simulations under gradually relaxed assumptions. We developed a theoretical model named niche–efficiency to integrate niche complementarity and a heretofore-ignored mechanism of diminishing marginal productivity in quantifying the effects of biodiversity loss on plant productivity. Based on niche–efficiency, we created a relative productivity metric and a productivity impact index (PII) to assist in biological conservation and resource management. Relative productivity provides a standardized measure of the influence of biodiversity on individual productivity, and PII is a functionally based taxonomic index to assess individual species’ inherent value in maintaining current ecosystem productivity. Empirical evidence from the Alaska boreal forest suggests that every 1% reduction in overall plant diversity could render an average of 0.23% decline in individual tree productivity. Out of the 283 plant species of the region, we found that large woody plants generally have greater PII values than other species. This theoretical model would facilitate the integration of biological conservation in the international campaign against several pressing global issues involving energy use, climate change, and poverty.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗

USGS2016

Deglacial temperature history of West Antarctica

The most recent glacial to interglacial transition constitutes a remarkable natural experiment for learning how Earth’s climate responds to various forcings, including a rise in atmospheric CO 2 . This transition has left a direct thermal remnant in the polar ice sheets, where the exceptional purity and continual accumulation of ice permit analyses not possible in other settings. For Antarctica, the deglacial warming has previously been constrained only by the water isotopic composition in ice cores, without an absolute thermometric assessment of the isotopes’ sensitivity to temperature. To overcome this limitation, we measured temperatures in a deep borehole and analyzed them together with ice-core data to reconstruct the surface temperature history of West Antarctica. The deglacial warming was 11.3 ± 1.8 ∘ "> 11.3 ± 1.8 ∘ 11.3±1.8∘ C, approximately two to three times the global average, in agreement with theoretical expectations for Antarctic amplification of planetary temperature changes. Consistent with evidence from glacier retreat in Southern Hemisphere mountain ranges, the Antarctic warming was mostly completed by 15 kyBP, several millennia earlier than in the Northern Hemisphere. These results constrain the role of variable oceanic heat transport between hemispheres during deglaciation and quantitatively bound the direct influence of global climate forcings on Antarctic temperature. Although climate models perform well on average in this context, some recent syntheses of deglacial climate history have underestimated Antarctic warming and the models with lowest sensitivity can be discounted.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences↗

USGS2021

Native American fire management at an ancient wildland–urban interface in the Southwest United States

The intersection of expanding human development and wildland landscapes—the “wildland–urban interface” or WUI—is one of the most vexing contexts for fire management because it involves complex interacting systems of people and nature. Here, we document the dynamism and stability of an ancient WUI that was apparently sustainable for more than 500 y. We combine ethnography, archaeology, paleoecology, and ecological modeling to infer intensive wood and fire use by Native American ancestors of Jemez Pueblo and the consequences on fire size, fire–climate relationships, and fire intensity. Initial settlement of northern New Mexico by Jemez farmers increased fire activity within an already dynamic landscape that experienced frequent fires. Wood harvesting for domestic fuel and architectural uses and abundant, small, patchy fires created a landscape that burned often but only rarely burned extensively. Depopulation of the forested landscape due to Spanish colonial impacts resulted in a rebound of fuels accompanied by the return of widely spreading, frequent surface fires. The sequence of more than 500 y of perennial small fires and wood collecting followed by frequent “free-range” wildland surface fires made the landscape resistant to extreme fire behavior, even when climate was conducive and surface fires were large. The ancient Jemez WUI offers an alternative model for fire management in modern WUI in the western United States, and possibly other settings where local management of woody fuels through use (domestic wood collecting) coupled with small prescribed fires may make these communities both self-reliant and more resilient to wildfire hazards.

Arizona, New Mexico↗