Deglacial temperature history of West Antarctica

Kurt M. Cuffey; Gary D. Clow; Eric J. Steig; Christo Buizert; T.J. Fudge; Michelle Koutnik; Edwin D. Waddington; Richard B. Alley; Jeffrey P. Severinghaus

doi:10.1073/pnas.1609132113

USGS · 70187376

Deglacial temperature history of West Antarctica

Kurt M. Cuffey·Gary D. Clow·Eric J. Steig·Christo Buizert·T.J. Fudge·Michelle Koutnik·Edwin D. Waddington·Richard B. Alley·Jeffrey P. Severinghaus

View original source ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

The most recent glacial to interglacial transition constitutes a remarkable natural experiment for learning how Earth’s climate responds to various forcings, including a rise in atmospheric CO 2 . This transition has left a direct thermal remnant in the polar ice sheets, where the exceptional purity and continual accumulation of ice permit analyses not possible in other settings. For Antarctica, the deglacial warming has previously been constrained only by the water isotopic composition in ice cores, without an absolute thermometric assessment of the isotopes’ sensitivity to temperature. To overcome this limitation, we measured temperatures in a deep borehole and analyzed them together with ice-core data to reconstruct the surface temperature history of West Antarctica. The deglacial warming was 11.3 ± 1.8 ∘ "> 11.3 ± 1.8 ∘ 11.3±1.8∘ C, approximately two to three times the global average, in agreement with theoretical expectations for Antarctic amplification of planetary temperature changes. Consistent with evidence from glacier retreat in Southern Hemisphere mountain ranges, the Antarctic warming was mostly completed by 15 kyBP, several millennia earlier than in the Northern Hemisphere. These results constrain the role of variable oceanic heat transport between hemispheres during deglaciation and quantitatively bound the direct influence of global climate forcings on Antarctic temperature. Although climate models perform well on average in this context, some recent syntheses of deglacial climate history have underestimated Antarctic warming and the models with lowest sensitivity can be discounted.

Explore related subjects

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Article

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeX RIS

Kurt M. Cuffey, Gary D. Clow, Eric J. Steig, Christo Buizert, T.J. Fudge, Michelle Koutnik, Edwin D. Waddington, Richard B. Alley, Jeffrey P. Severinghaus. 2016-11-28. Deglacial temperature history of West Antarctica. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1609132113

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related USGS reports

USGS2026

Extensive glacier loss in the coterminous United States

Glaciers populate the mountain ranges of the western conterminous United States and despite their importance to alpine hydrology, their area and volume change have never been comprehensively evaluated. Since the mid-Twentieth Century about one-quarter of the glaciers have disappeared and the overall area and volume are reduced by one-third. The pattern of glacier shrinkage suggests most glaciers in the Conterminous US are largely maintained by local topographic influences due to their small size. These results are critical to understanding evolving high alpine hydrology and important to ecosystem processes.

conterminous United States↗

USGS2026

Oak masting breaks down in a highly fragmented, pollen limited landscape

Masting, the production of variable and synchronous seed crops, is common among wind pollinated trees, and periodic pollen limitation is thought to be an important component of the process of masting. However, little is known either about the dynamics of mast seed production or pollen limitation in isolated trees. We tracked seed production of valley oak ( Quercus lobata ) over 11 years in a highly fragmented landscape in California’s Central Valley in which many trees lacked conspecific neighbors within 500 m. We found that oaks with closer neighbors produced more acorns on average than oaks with fewer neighbors. Consistent with theories linking mast seeding and pollination, the isolation effect was most apparent in the highest seed production years. While individual trees showed substantial interannual variation in seed production, we observed little synchrony in seed production among individuals compared to intact oak populations throughout California. Our results indicate that highly fragmented populations suffer signs of pollen limitation and do not produce synchronous seed crops. Fragmentation, alongside climate change, is a dimension of global change that interrupts the typical seed production dynamics of trees.

California↗

USGS2026

Deep critical zone controls on shallow landslides

The deep critical zone (CZ) has long been recognized for its importance in influencing shallow landslides but was not considered feasible to include in slope stability models at the watershed scale. In this study, we demonstrate that simple approximations of the CZ in a fully coupled hydrologic and soil slope stability model can effectively capture the location, timing, and likely size of shallow landslides. To achieve this, we use coupled, process-based models that incorporate the effects of 1) deep CZ structures, 2) three-dimensional transient hydrology, and 3) multidimensional slope stability, calibrated with data from an intensively monitored field site. Our results show that the hydrologically active deep CZ guides groundwater flow, influencing where it drains from or exfiltrates to the soil mantle, producing distinct patterns of soil saturation and seepage forces at the soil-bedrock boundary. Deep conductive weathered critical zone drains the soil mantle, reducing the likelihood of destabilizing pore pressures, while the downslope thinning of the CZ forces groundwater to the surface. This creates localized instability and a tendency for similar-sized landslides across the landscape. In contrast, the absence of conductive weathered bedrock results in more widespread destabilizing pore pressures, leading to larger landslides and the likelihood of landslides earlier in a storm than in landscapes underlain by a deep CZ. Our findings suggest that first-order variations of deep CZ can provide physical explanations for variations observed in the susceptibility, magnitude, and timing of shallow landslides, and that CZ structure may be inferred from patterns and timing of landsliding.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences↗