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Estimating forest canopy cover dynamics in Valles Caldera National Preserve, New Mexico, using LiDAR and Landsat data

Increasing tree canopy cover has led to increasing wildfire activity in conifer dominated areas of the southwestern United States. Estimating historical changes in the spatial distribution of tree canopy cover can provide further insights into the dynamics of forest and fuel conditions in these landscapes and help prioritize areas for restoration to mitigate wildfire risks and restore biological functioning. In this study, we explored the relationship between LiDAR derived canopy cover data and Landsat reflectance values, and derived a model to estimate percent canopy cover (PCC) on historical Landsat data from 1987 to 2015 for the Valles Caldera National Preserve (VCNP), located in the southwest Jemez Mountains of New Mexico. We developed a regression model between LiDAR generated canopy cover collected in June 2010 and Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) reflectance values (bands 1–7 except band 6) and vegetation indices collected for the same date. About 5% (17,000) of the total LiDAR points (329,102) were used as training points and a separate, non-overlapping set of 17,000 points as test points to validate the regression model. A simple linear model with the red band (band 3; R 2 = 0.70) was selected as the best model to predict PCC in the rest of the images for 1987–2015. In general, we found a strong consistency between the spatial dynamics of modelled tree canopy cover based on historical Landsat data, wildfire events and forest management practicesthat occurred during the same period. Results showed that about 11% of the study area experienced an increase in PCC for the period of 1987–2015 while 41% of the study area experienced a reduction in PCC during the same time period, mostly in the areas which were affected by stand replacing wildfires in 2011 and 2013. The results indicate an overall increase in medium and high canopy cover classes in specific regions of the study area, which could lead to hazardous wildfires such as those in 2011 and 2013. In the context of ongoing ecological restoration of these montane forests, predicted PCC of contemporary forests could help local managers to identify the areas in the need of immediate restoration efforts by focusing management practices on the areas with closed canopy.

New Mexico

The U.S. Geological Survey cartographic and geographic information science research activities 2006-2010

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) produces geospatial databases and topographic maps for the United States of America. A part of that mission includes conducting research in geographic information science (GIScience) and cartography to support mapping and improve the design, quality, delivery, and use of geospatial data and topographic maps. The Center of Excellence for Geospatial Information Science (CEGIS) was established by the USGS in January 2006 as a part of the National Geospatial Program Office. CEGIS (http://cegis.usgs.gov) evolved from a team of cartographic researchers at the Mid-Continent Mapping Center. The team became known as the Cartographic Research group and was supported by the Cooperative Topographic Mapping, Geographic Analysis and Monitoring, and Land Remote Sensing programs of the Geography Discipline of the USGS from 1999-2005. In 2006, the Cartographic Research group and its projects (http://carto-research.er.usgs.gov/) became the core of CEGIS staff and research. In 2006, CEGIS research became focused on The National Map (http://nationalmap.gov).

Cartography and Geographic Information Science

The Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative (ARMI): 5-year report

The Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative (ARMI) is an innovative, multidisciplinary program that began in 2000 in response to a congressional directive for the Department of the Interior to address the issue of amphibian declines in the United States. ARMI’s formulation was cross-disciplinary, integrating U.S. Geological Survey scientists from Biology, Water, and Geography to develop a course of action (Corn and others, 2005a). The result has been an effective program with diverse, yet complementary, expertise. ARMI’s approach to research and monitoring is multiscale. Detailed investigations focus on a few species at selected local sites throughout the country; monitoring addresses a larger number of species over broader areas (typically, National Parks and National Wildlife Refuges); and inventories to document species occurrence are conducted more extensively across the landscape. Where monitoring is conducted, the emphasis is on an ability to draw statistically defensible conclusions about the status of amphibians. To achieve this objective, ARMI has instituted a monitoring response variable that has nationwide applicability. At research sites, ARMI focuses on studying species/environment interactions, determining causes of observed declines, and developing new techniques to sample populations and analyze data. Results from activities at all scales are provided to scientists, land managers, and policymakers, as appropriate. The ARMI program and the scientists involved contribute significantly to understanding amphibian declines at local, regional, national, and international levels. Within National Parks and National Wildlife Refuges, findings help land managers make decisions applicable to amphibian conservation. For example, the National Park Service (NPS) selected amphibians as a vital sign for several of their monitoring networks, and ARMI scientists provide information and assistance in developing monitoring methods for this NPS effort. At the national level, ARMI has had major exposure at a variety of meetings, including a dedicated symposium at the 2004 joint meetings of the Herpetologists’ League, the American Society of Ichthyologists and Herpetologists, and the Society for the Study of Amphibians and Reptiles. Several principal investigators have brought international exposure to ARMI through venues such as the World Congress of Herpetology in South Africa in 2005 (invited presentation by Dr. Gary Fellers), the Global Amphibian Summit, sponsored by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) and Wildlife Conservation International, in Washington, D.C., 2005 (invited participation by Dr. P.S. Corn), and a special issue of the international herpetological journal Alytes focused on ARMI in 2004 (edited by Dr. C.K. Dodd, Jr.). ARMI research and monitoring efforts have addressed at least 7 of the 21 Threatened and Endangered Species listed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (California red-legged frog [Rana draytonii], Chiricahua leopard frog [R. chiricahuensis], arroyo toad [Bufo californicus], dusky gopher frog [Rana sevosa], mountain yellow-legged frog [R. muscosa], flatwoods salamander [Ambystoma cingulatum], and the golden coqui [Eleutherodactylus jasperi]), and 9 additional species of concern recognized by the IUCN. ARMI investigations have addressed time-sensitive research, such as emerging infectious diseases and effects on amphibians related to natural disasters like wildfire, hurricanes, and debris flows, and the effects of more constant, environmental change, like urban expansion, road development, and the use of pesticides. Over the last 5 years, ARMI has partnered with an extensive list of government, academic, and private entities. These partnerships have been fruitful and have assisted ARMI in developing new field protocols and analytic tools, in using and refining emerging technologies to improve accuracy and efficiency of data handling, in conducting amphibian disease, malformation, and environmental effects research, and in implementing a network of monitoring and research sites. Accomplishments from these endeavors include more than 40 publications on amphibian status and trends, nearly 100 publications on amphibian ecology and causes of declines, and over 30 methodological publications. Several databases have emerged as a result of ARMI and its partnerships; one, a digital atlas of ranges for all U.S. amphibian species, was used by the IUCN to display amphibian distribution maps in the Global Amphibian Assessment Project. Given the scope of ARMI and the panoply of projects, findings have had implications for policy. Investigations that demonstrate amphibian declines or illuminate causes of declines provide valuable information about habitat management, environmental effects, mechanisms for the spread of disease, and human/amphibian interfaces. This information has been made available to land managers, scientists, educators, Congress and other policymakers, and the public. The support afforded ARMI by Congress has been influential in the program’s development and success. The value of ARMI’s efforts will continue to increase as we are able to extend our studies spatially and temporally to answer critical questions with more confidence. We are using ARMI’s resources efficiently and continuing to develop innovative mechanisms for leveraging resources for maximum effectiveness during challenging financial times. This report is a 5-year retrospective of the structure, methodology, progress, and contributions to the broader scientific community that have resulted from this national USGS program. We evaluate ARMI’s success to date, with regard to the challenges faced by the program and the strengths that have emerged. We chart objectives for the next 5 years that build on current accomplishments, highlight areas meriting further research, and direct efforts to overcome existing weaknesses.

Scientific Investigations Report

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Western Region; Santa Barbara Channel Coastal and Ocean Science

USGS coastal and ocean science in the Western United States and the Pacific integrates scientific expertise in geology, water resources, biology, and geography. Operating from 10 major science centers in the Western Region, the USGS is addressing a broad geographic and thematic range of important coastal and marine issues. In California, the Santa Barbara Channel represents one area of focus.

Fact Sheet

The role of geography, diet, and host phylogeny on the gut microbiome in the Hawaiian honeycreeper radiation

The animal gut microbiome can have a strong influence on the health, fitness, and behavior of its hosts. The composition of the gut microbial community can be influenced by factors such as diet, environment, and evolutionary history (phylosymbiosis). However, the relative influence of these factors is unknown in most bird species. Furthermore, phylosymbiosis studies have largely focused on clades that diverged tens of millions of years ago, and little is known about the degree of gut microbiome divergence in more recent species radiations. This study explores the drivers of microbiome variation across the unique and recent Hawaiian honeycreeper radiation (Fringillidae: Drepanidinae). Fecal samples were collected from 14 extant species spanning the main islands of the Hawaiian archipelago and were sequenced using three metabarcoding markers to characterize the gut microbiome, invertebrate diet, and plant diet of Hawaiian honeycreepers. We then used these metabarcoding data and the honeycreeper host phylogeny to evaluate their relative roles in shaping the gut microbiome. Microbiome variation across birds was highly individualized; however, source island had a small but significant effect on microbiome structure. The microbiomes did not recapitulate the host phylogenetic tree, indicating that evolutionary history does not strongly influence microbiome structure in the honeycreeper clade. These results expand our understanding of the roles of diet, geography, and phylogeny on avian microbiome structure, while also providing important ecological information about the diet and gut microbiota of wild Hawaiian honeycreepers.

Hawaii

Current limitations and recommendations to improve testing for the environmental assessment of endocrine active substances

In the present study, existing regulatory frameworks and test systems for assessing potential endocrine active chemicals are described, and associated challenges are discussed, along with proposed approaches to address these challenges. Regulatory frameworks vary somewhat across geographies, but all basically evaluate whether a chemical possesses endocrine activity and whether this activity can result in adverse outcomes either to humans or to the environment. Current test systems include in silico, in vitro, and in vivo techniques focused on detecting potential endocrine activity, and in vivo tests that collect apical data to detect possible adverse effects. These test systems are currently designed to robustly assess endocrine activity and/or adverse effects in the estrogen, androgen, and thyroid hormone signaling pathways; however, there are some limitations of current test systems for evaluating endocrine hazard and risk. These limitations include a lack of certainty regarding: 1) adequately sensitive species and life stages; 2) mechanistic endpoints that are diagnostic for endocrine pathways of concern; and 3) the linkage between mechanistic responses and apical, adverse outcomes. Furthermore, some existing test methods are resource intensive with regard to time, cost, and use of animals. However, based on recent experiences, there are opportunities to improve approaches to and guidance for existing test methods and to reduce uncertainty. For example, in vitro high-throughput screening could be used to prioritize chemicals for testing and provide insights as to the most appropriate assays for characterizing hazard and risk. Other recommendations include adding endpoints for elucidating connections between mechanistic effects and adverse outcomes, identifying potentially sensitive taxa for which test methods currently do not exist, and addressing key endocrine pathways of possible concern in addition to those associated with estrogen, androgen, and thyroid signaling.

Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management

Geography for a Changing World - A science strategy for the geographic research of the U.S. Geological Survey, 2005-2015

This report presents a science strategy for the geographic research of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) for the years 2005-2015. The common thread running through the vision, mission, and science goals presented in the plan is that USGS geographers will provide national leadership to understand coupled human-environmental systems in the face of land change and will deliver pertinent information to decisionmakers on the vulnerability and resilience of these systems. We define land change science as the study of the human and environment dynamics that give rise to changed land use, cover, and surface form. A number of realities shape the strategic context of this plan: The Department of Interior Strategic Plan focuses on meeting society’s resource needs and sustaining the Nation’s life support systems, underscoring the importance of characterizing and understanding coupled human-environmental systems. In redefining its mission in the mid-1990s, the USGS envisions itself as an integrated natural science and information agency. The USGS will assume a national leadership role in the use of science to develop knowledge about the web of relations that couple biophysical and human systems and translate this knowledge into unbiased, reliable information that meets important societal information needs. The following trends will influence USGS geography-oriented science activities over the next decade. Most of the emerging earth science issues that the USGS will address are geographic phenomena. A growing international concern for aligning society’s development activities with environmental limits has led to an articulation of a science agenda associated with global environmental change, vulnerability, and resilience. Earth science investigations have evolved toward the study of very large areas, and the resulting huge volumes of data are challenging to manage and understand. Finally, scientists and the public face the challenge of gaining intelligent insights about geographic and environmental processes from these data, with the ultimate goal of guiding resource-management decisions. The first four science goals in the plan support understanding the human and environmental dynamics of land change. Each science goal has an associated set of strategic actions to achieve the goal. These goals and actions are consistent with national science priorities and the Department of Interior and USGS missions, take advantage of existing expertise, and lead to the strengthening of critical geographic research capacities that do not exist in other USGS disciplines.

Circular

Ecoregions and ecoregionalization: geographical and ecological perspectives

Ecoregions, i.e., areas exhibiting relative homogeneity of ecosystems, are units of analysis that are increasingly important in environmental assessment and management. Ecoregions provide a holistic framework for flexible, comparative analysis of complex environmental problems. Ecoregions mapping has intellectual foundations in both geography and ecology. However, a hallmark of ecoregions mapping is that it is a truly interdisciplinary endeavor that demands the integration of knowledge from a multitude of sciences. Geographers emphasize the role of place, scale, and both natural and social elements when delineating and characterizing regions. Ecologists tend to focus on environmental processes with special attention given to energy flows and nutrient cycling. Integration of disparate knowledge from the many key sciences has been one of the great challenges of ecoregions mapping, and may lie at the heart of the lack of consensus on the “optimal” approach and methods to use in such work. Through a review of the principal existing US ecoregion maps, issues that should be addressed in order to advance the state of the art are identified. Research related to needs, methods, data sources, data delivery, and validation is needed. It is also important that the academic system foster education so that there is an infusion of new expertise in ecoregion mapping and use.

Environmental Management

Overview of USGS sediment research and monitoring capabilities

For more than a century the USGS, as its name implies, has been the leading federal earth science research organization for the Nation. With the recent addition to the USGS of the National Biological Service in October 1996, as the Biological Resources Division, the mission of the USGS has broadened and the Survey's research capabilities are strengthened considerably. The USGS is now in a position to provide objective and credible scientific information across the fields of geology, geophysics, hydrology, geography, and biology and to provide the science information in an integrated and truly multidisciplinary manner. The subject of sediment is one that is critical to nearly every activity in the USGS and is becoming increasingly important to society and protecting, sustaining, and restoring the Nation's natural resources. The purpose of this workshop is to focus on this common denominator, sedimentary research, and bring together investigators to examine areas of expertise and collaboration on existing studies and to explore potential for future scientific interaction across all four of the divisions. A brief summary of sediment research capability for each division follows.

Conference Paper

ICBMs and the environment: Assessments at a base in Kazakhstan

A paper by two U.S. scientists explores the environmental/health hazard posed by abandoned missile launch sites and control facilities (dismantled by 1998 as part of the Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction Program) at an ICBM base in north-central Kazakhstan. It summarizes the findings of Environmental Site Assessment Reports based on a program of water and soil sampling at the sites, with a particular focus on testing for the presence of polychlorinated biphenyls, various toxic metals, and radiation. The study is important in that it documents levels of contamination (and describes abatement measures) at a former Soviet missile base.

Post-Soviet Geography and Economics

Applying biodiversity metrics as surrogates to a habitat conservation plan

Unabated urbanization has led to environmental degradation and subsequent biodiversity loss across the globe. As an outcome of unmitigated land use, multi-jurisdictional agencies have developed land use plans that attempt to protect threatened or endangered species across selected areas by which some trade-offs between harm to species and additional conservation approaches are allowed among the partnering organizations. Typical conservation plans can be created to focus on single or multiple species, and although they may protect a species or groups of species, they may not account for biodiversity or its protection across the given area. We applied an approach that clustered deductive habitat models for terrestrial vertebrates into metrics that serve as surrogates for biodiversity and relate to ecosystem services. In order to evaluate this process, we collaborated with the partnering agencies who are creating a Multi-Species Habitat Conservation Plan in southern California and compared it to the entire Mojave Desert Ecoregion. We focused on total terrestrial vertebrate species richness and taxon groupings representing amphibians, birds, mammals, and reptiles, and two special status species using the Normalized Index of Biodiversity (NIB). The conservation planning area had a lower NIB and was less species rich than the Mojave Desert Ecoregion, but the Mojave River riparian corridor had a higher NIB and was more species-rich, and while taxon analysis varied across the geographies, this pattern generally held. Additionally, we analyzed desert tortoise ( Gopherus agassizii ) and desert kit fox ( Vulpes macrotis arsipus ) as umbrella species and determined that both species are associated with increased NIB and large numbers of species for the conservation area. Our process provided the ability to incorporate value-added surrogate information into a formal land use planning process and used a metric, NIB, which allowed comparison of the various planning areas and geographic units. Although this process has been applied to Apple Valley, CA, and other geographies within the U.S., the approach has practical application for other global biodiversity initiatives.

California

Conflation and aggregation of spatial data improve predictive models for species with limited habitats: a case of the threatened yellow-billed cuckoo in Arizona, USA

Riparian vegetation provides important wildlife habitat in the Southwestern United States, but limited distributions and spatial complexity often leads to inaccurate representation in maps used to guide conservation. We test the use of data conflation and aggregation on multiple vegetation/land-cover maps to improve the accuracy of habitat models for the threatened western yellow-billed cuckoo (Coccyzus americanus occidentalis). We used species observations (n = 479) from a state-wide survey to develop habitat models from 1) three vegetation/land-cover maps produced at different geographic scales ranging from state to national, and 2) new aggregate maps defined by the spatial agreement of cover types, which were defined as high (agreement = all data sets), moderate (agreement ≥ 2), and low (no agreement required). Model accuracies, predicted habitat locations, and total area of predicted habitat varied considerably, illustrating the effects of input data quality on habitat predictions and resulting potential impacts on conservation planning. Habitat models based on aggregated and conflated data were more accurate and had higher model sensitivity than original vegetation/land-cover, but this accuracy came at the cost of reduced geographic extent of predicted habitat. Using the highest performing models, we assessed cuckoo habitat preference and distribution in Arizona and found that major watersheds containing high-probably habitat are fragmented by a wide swath of low-probability habitat. Focus on riparian restoration in these areas could provide more breeding habitat for the threatened cuckoo, offset potential future habitat losses in adjacent watershed, and increase regional connectivity for other threatened vertebrates that also use riparian corridors.

Arizona

Volcanic gas monitoring

Introduction As magma rises through the crust, decreasing pressure conditions allow volatiles to exsolve from the magma. These volatiles then migrate upward through the crust, where they can be stored at shallower levels or escape to the atmosphere. Rising magma also heats rock masses beneath volcanic centers, causing water in shallow aquifers and hydrothermal systems to boil and release additional gases and steam (see chapter F , this volume; Ingebritsen and Hurwitz, 2024). The chemistry and quantity of gases that reach the surface during periods of quiescence or volcanic unrest can reveal that gas-rich magma is ascending, crystallizing, or alternatively stalling, with important implications for volcanic hazard (for example, Sutton and others, 1992; Aiuppa and others, 2007, 2021; Werner and others, 2009, 2011, 2012; Moretti and others, 2013; de Moor and others, 2016; Lewicki and others, 2019; Edmonds and others, 2022; Kern and others, 2022; Kunrat and others, 2022). Most volcanoes in Alaska and the western United States are characterized by weak degassing, with one or more low-temperature fumaroles (typically near the local boiling temperature of water) and connect to a deeper and sometimes extensive hydrothermal system (for example, McGee and others, 2001; Symonds and others, 2003a, b). Hydrothermal systems will affect the chemistry of rising gases exsolved from deeper magma (Symonds and others, 2001), including sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ), hydrogen chloride (HCl), and water vapor (for example, Doukas and Gerlach, 1995; Gerlach and others, 1998, 2008; Symonds and others, 2001; Werner and others, 2013). As an example, depending on factors such as temperature, pressure, and oxidation state, rising SO 2 will react with groundwater to form hydrogen sulfide (H 2 S) gas, dissolved sulfate (SO 4 2− ), or elemental sulfur (Christenson, 2000; Symonds and others, 2001; Werner and others, 2008). The reaction and dissolution of SO 2 into shallow groundwater is commonly referred to as scrubbing, and can reduce the likelihood that ascending, degassing magma can be detected. Carbon dioxide, however, in addition to exsolving from magma early in the ascent process, is not easily removed by hydrothermal fluids (Lowenstern, 2001). As scrubbing and other processes take place, the SO 2 /H 2 S, CO 2 /SO 2 , and CO 2 /H 2 S ratios may change. High rates of SO 2 emission indicate that magma has moved to relatively shallow levels in the volcano and that the system has heated up enough to establish dry pathways from depth to the surface. Monitoring multiple gas species and the total output of those species is thereby useful for volcano monitoring during both periods of quiescence, to establish background degassing conditions, and during unrest, when gas geochemistry and emission rates can provide information on changing conditions, such as magma ascent. To provide context for multidisciplinary volcano forecasts, we focus on the following two key required capabilities: (1) characterizing baseline geochemistry and gas discharge from volcanoes and volcanic regions and (2) monitoring changes in gas geochemistry and discharge to inform forecasts of volcanic eruptions and their effects. Sufficient baseline data must be collected to identify and interpret anomalous degassing associated with volcanic unrest (for example, Sorey and others, 1998; Rouwet and others, 2014). Differences in volcano type, baseline degassing rates, local hydrology, and geography (for example, high versus low latitude) will result in a different baseline for each volcano. Volcanoes of any threat level that exhibit one or more degassing phenomena would ideally be monitored by techniques needed to establish baseline degassing data, with the sampling frequency of baseline data dictated by the threat level (table E1). Additional monitoring techniques become necessary during periods of unrest. In general, three of the most important techniques for gas monitoring are (1) direct sampling of fumarole, spring, and soil gases for laboratory geochemical measurements, (2) measurements of the chemical composition of the volcanic plume and emission rates of major gas species (for example, H 2 O, CO 2 , SO 2 , and H 2 S) by satellite, airborne, or ground-based techniques, and (3) measurements of diffuse emissions of CO 2 and other gases through soils. Various methods and instruments may be useful both for baseline studies and during unrest.

Scientific Investigations Report

A statement of common ground regarding the role of wildfire in forested landscapes of the western United States

For millennia, wildfires have markedly influenced forests and non-forested landscapes of the western United States (US), and they are increasingly seen as having substantial impacts on society and nature. There is growing concern over what kinds and amounts of fire will achieve desirable outcomes and limit harmful effects on people and nature. Moreover, the increasing complexity surrounding cost and management of wildfires suggests that science should play a more prominent role in informing decisions about the need for fire in nature, and the need for society to adapt to the inevitable occurrence of different kinds and amounts of fire and smoke. Scientists widely view the natural wildfire regime as essential to western US forest ecosystem functioning. However, debates continue over how much low-, moderate-, and high severity fire is “natural” or desirable in these forests. Ongoing disagreement centers on the characteristics and importance of historical proportions and patch size distributions of low-, moderate-, and high-severity fires of dry, moist, and cold forests, and on the ecological consequences of changing fire-patch patterns and relative abundances. Scientists also debate the relative importance of climate and extreme weather versus fuel as drivers of high-severity fire, as well as the effectiveness and value of fuel treatments for reducing risks of undesired fire effects. Climate research shows that we should expect shifting future climates in all ecoregions. These expected changes make it difficult for scientists, land managers, and decision-makers to know the degree to which future forest management should be informed by historical conditions. There also is disagreement about how to make western forests more resilient to future disruptions in both climatic and fire regimes. To complicate matters, areas of scientific agreement -- the “common ground” shared by those in the research community -- are poorly articulated. Thus, the focus of the Fire Research Consensus (FRC) project has been to identify common ground among scientists, and provide a summary that can inform management. Land and fire managers are one audience for this report, as are stakeholders and the interested public. Our analysis, which results from extensive scientific literature reviews and questionnaires sent to western fire scientists and land managers, is summarized in nine key topics: A. Fire history and fire ecology vary with geography. B. Human impacts and management history vary with geography. C. Fire is a keystone process, which occurs in almost all western US forest types. D. Knowledge of historical range of variability (HRV) is useful but does not dictate land management goals. E. Forest structure, composition, and fuels have changed, affecting burn severity and fire extent. F. Climate and fuels both influence current fire sizes and their severities. G. The role of changing climatic conditions is increasingly important. H. Multiple fire ecology and fire history research approaches can be useful for characterizing fire regimes. I. Many existing fire management tools and strategies can be useful moving forward. We found much common ground that will be useful to scientists, managers, citizens, and policy decision-makers. For example, there is wide agreement among scientists that fire is one of the most essential influences on western forests and that more fire is needed on most landscapes, but not all wildfire behavior or extent will do. Fires can produce more positive benefits and fewer negative impacts when they burn with an ecologically appropriate mix and pattern of low, moderate, and high severity. Managers will need assistance and funding to create landscape conditions that favor more desirable fire behavior at broad spatial scales. Note that much societal impact from western wildfires occurs in non-forested landscapes that are not covered in this report, where findings would differ from those reported here for forested landscapes. We summarize additional key points below.

Western United States

Strategic needs of water on the Yukon: An interdisciplinary approach to studying hydrology and climate change in the Lower Yukon River Basin

Strategic Needs of Water on the Yukon (SNOWY) is an interdisciplinary research project funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF; http://www.nsf.gov/ ). The SNOWY team is made up of a diverse group of researchers from different backgrounds and organizations. This partnership between scientists from different disciplines (hydrology, geography, and social science), government agencies, nonprofit organizations, universities, and Lower Yukon River Basin (LYRB) and Yukon-Kuskokwim (YK) Delta communities provided an opportunity to study the effects of climate change using a holistic approach. The Arctic and Subarctic are experiencing environmental change at a rate faster than the rest of the world, and the lack of historical baseline data in these often remote locations makes understanding and predicting regional climate change difficult. This project focused on collecting data to fill in these gaps by using both quantitative and qualitative methodologies to tell the story of environmental change in this region as told by the physical data and the people who rely on this landscape.

Alaska

Abnormal chemical element concentrations in lichens of Isle Royale National Park

Lichens have been used for many years to monitor changes in deposited airborne chemical elements in many areas, but few studies have focused on areas suspected of experiencing slightly elevated pollution. Detection of subtle patterns of slightly elevated pollutants calls for developing several lines of evidence as opposed to single line studies used in heavily polluted areas. This study of two lichen species, Hypogymnia physodes and Evernia mesomorpha , in Isle Royale National Park, Michigan compares the concentrations and ranks of elements with the concentrations and ranks of the elements in the earth's crust, changes in element concentrations over a nine year period, and the geography of element concentrations in the park. S, Zn, Pb, Cd and Se were elevated in both species and higher in rank compared to the concentrations and ranks in the earth's crust. Toxic elements increased 123% in Hypogymnia and 62% in Evernia over 9 years, compared to increases of 45% and 59% for non-toxic elements in each species, respectively. Geographically, the lichens at certain localities with higher exposures experienced higher than average element concentrations. Finally, tissue concentrations of Mn, S and Se at some localities were above levels known to be either toxic or similar to those found in polluted areas. These four lines of evidence suggest that Isle Royale National Park is experiencing the onset of chronic air pollution stress from a number of sources.

Michigan

Landscape genetics of high mountain frog metapopulations

Explaining functional connectivity among occupied habitats is crucial for understanding metapopulation dynamics and species ecology. Landscape genetics has primarily focused on elucidating how ecological features between observations influence gene flow. Functional connectivity, however, may be the result of both these between‐site (landscape resistance) landscape characteristics and at‐site (patch quality) landscape processes that can be captured using network based models. We test hypotheses of functional connectivity that include both between‐site and at‐site landscape processes in metapopulations of Columbia spotted frogs ( Rana luteiventris ) by employing a novel justification of gravity models for landscape genetics (eight microsatellite loci, 37 sites, n = 441). Primarily used in transportation and economic geography, gravity models are a unique approach as flow (e.g. gene flow) is explained as a function of three basic components: distance between sites, production/attraction (e.g. at‐site landscape process) and resistance (e.g. between‐site landscape process). The study system contains a network of nutrient poor high mountain lakes where we hypothesized a short growing season and complex topography between sites limit R. luteiventris gene flow. In addition, we hypothesized production of offspring is limited by breeding site characteristics such as the introduction of predatory fish and inherent site productivity. We found that R. luteiventris connectivity was negatively correlated with distance between sites, presence of predatory fish (at‐site) and topographic complexity (between‐site). Conversely, site productivity (as measured by heat load index, at‐site) and growing season (as measured by frost‐free period between‐sites) were positively correlated with gene flow. The negative effect of predation and positive effect of site productivity, in concert with bottleneck tests, support the presence of source–sink dynamics. In conclusion, gravity models provide a powerful new modelling approach for examining a wide range of both basic and applied questions in landscape genetics.

Idaho

The National Map: from geography to mapping and back again

When the means of production for national base mapping were capital intensive, required large production facilities, and had ill-defined markets, Federal Government mapping agencies were the primary providers of the spatial data needed for economic development, environmental management, and national defense. With desktop geographic information systems now ubiquitous, source data available as a commodity from private industry, and the realization that many complex problems faced by society need far more and different kinds of spatial data for their solutions, national mapping organizations must realign their business strategies to meet growing demand and anticipate the needs of a rapidly changing geographic information environment. The National Map of the United States builds on a sound historic foundation of describing and monitoring the land surface and adds a focused effort to produce improved understanding, modeling, and prediction of land-surface change. These added dimensions bring to bear a broader spectrum of geographic science to address extant and emerging issues. Within the overarching construct of The National Map, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is making a transition from data collector to guarantor of national data completeness; from producing paper maps to supporting an online, seamless, integrated database; and from simply describing the Nation’s landscape to linking these descriptions with increased scientific understanding. Implementing the full spectrum of geographic science addresses a myriad of public policy issues, including land and natural resource management, recreation, urban growth, human health, and emergency planning, response, and recovery. Neither these issues nor the science and technologies needed to deal with them are static. A robust research agenda is needed to understand these changes and realize The National Map vision. Initial successes have been achieved. These accomplishments demonstrate the utility of The National Map to the Nation and give confidence in evolving its future applications.

Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing