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USGS2013

Microhabitat selection, demography, and correlates of home range size for the King Rail ( Rallus elegans )

Animal movements and habitat selection within the home range, or microhabitat selection, can provide insights into habitat requirements, such as foraging and area requirements. The King Rail ( Rallus elegans ) is a wetland bird of high conservation concern in the United States, but little is known about its movements, habitats, or demography. King Rails ( n = 34) were captured during the 2010–2011 breeding seasons in the coastal marshes of southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas. Radio telemetry and direct habitat surveys of King Rail locations were conducted to estimate home ranges and microhabitat selection. Within home ranges, King Rails selected for greater plant species richness and comparatively greater coverage of Phragmites australis , Typha spp., and Schoenoplectus robustus . King Rails were found closer to open water compared to random locations placed 50 m from King Rail locations. Home ranges ( n = 22) varied from 0.8–32.8 ha and differed greatly among sites. Home range size did not vary by year or sex; however, increased open water, with a maximum of 29% observed in the study, was correlated with smaller home ranges. Breeding season cumulative survivorship was 89% ± 22% in 2010 and 61% ± 43% in 2011, which coincided with a drought. With an equal search effort, King Rail chicks and juveniles observed in May-June decreased from 110 in 2010 to only 16 in the drier year of 2011. The findings show King Rail used marsh with ≤ 29% open water and had smaller home ranges when open water was more abundant.

Louisiana, Texas↗

USGS1997

Effects of drought and prolonged winter on Townsend's ground squirrel demography in shrubsteppe habitats

During a mark–recapture study of Townsend's ground squirrels ( Spermophilus townsendii ) on 20 sites in the Snake River Birds of Prey National Conservation Area, Idaho, in 1991 through 1994, 4407 animals were marked in 17639 capture events. This study of differences in population dynamics of Townsend's ground squirrels among habitats spanned a drought near the extreme of the 130-yr record, followed by prolonged winter conditions. Townsend's ground squirrels have a short active season (≈4 mo) in which to reproduce and store fat for overwintering. Their food consists largely of succulent grasses and forbs in this dry shrubsteppe and grassland habitat. The drought in the latter half of the 1992 active season produced early drying of Sandberg's bluegrass ( Poa secunda ) and was associated with low adult and juvenile body masses prior to immergence into estivation/hibernation. The following prolonged winter was associated with late emergence of females in 1993. Early-season body masses of adults were low in 1993 relative to 1992, whereas percentage of body fat in males was relatively high. These weather patterns in spring 1992 and winter 1993 also resulted in reduced adult persistence through the ≈7-mo inactive period, especially for adult females, and near-zero persistence of >1200 juveniles. Consequently, densities of Townsend's ground squirrels across the 20 livetrap sites declined. The demographic effects of drought and prolonged winter lasted at least through the subsequent breeding season. Adult females that survived these weather extremes produced fewer emergent young per female than did adult females prior to the event. Prior to the drought/prolonged winter, yearling female body masses were higher than, or indistinguishable from, those of adults. Females produced in 1993 had lower body masses as yearlings than did adult females. Demographic response to the drought and prolonged winter varied with habitat; ground squirrels in sagebrush habitat showed less decline in persistence and density and produced more young per female during the next active season following the drought (1993) than did ground squirrels in grassland habitat, where densities had been significantly higher prior to the drought and prolonged winter. Studies involving habitat comparisons of animal demography should always be placed in the context of long-term weather patterns, because habitat quality rankings based on density, reproduction, and survival may differ with environmental conditions. Physiological effects of environmental “crunches” on consumers may persist beyond the period of influence on food resources, reducing reproductive success and growth rates of future offspring.

Idaho↗

USGS2002

Demography of a population collapse: The Northern Idaho ground squirrel (Spermophilus brunneus brunneus)

We studied the demography of a population of Northern Idaho ground squirrels ( Spermophilus brunneus brunneus ) in Adams Co., Idaho. The population was completely censused yearly from 1987 to 1999, during which time it declined from 272 to 10 animals. The finite population growth rate, based on a Leslie matrix model of average life-history parameters, was only 0.72 (i.e., significantly <1.0). Growth rate was more sensitive to proportional changes in juvenile female survival than to any other single life-history parameter. Comparisons with self-sustaining populations of closely related ground squirrel species revealed that juvenile survival and breeding rates of yearling females were anomalously low. We believe that the ultimate cause of the population's collapse was inadequacy of food resources, particularly seeds, due to drying of the habitat and changes in plant species composition, likely the result of fire suppression and grazing. No 'rescue' by immigration occurred, probably because S. b. brunneus seldom disperse long distances and fire suppression has allowed conifers to encroach on inhabited meadows, shrinking them and closing dispersal routes. The proximate cause of the population's collapse was mortality of older breeding females, which reduced the mean age of breeders. Younger females had lower average pregnancy rates and litter sizes. To place our results in context we developed a new, general classification of anthropogenic population declines, based on whether they are caused by changes in the means of the life-history parameters (blatant disturbances), their variances (inappropriate variations), or the correlations among them (evolutionary traps). Many S. b. brunneus populations have disappeared in recent years, apparently due to blatant disturbances, especially loss of habitat and changes in food-plant composition, resulting in inadequate prehibernation nutrition and starvation overwinter. In addition, our study population may have been caught in an evolutionary trap, because the vegetational cues that could potentially enable the animals to adjust reproduction to the anticipated food supply no longer correlate with availability of fat-laden seeds.

Idaho↗

USGS2021

Occurrence, resource use, and demography of the common raven in North America: A research synthesis

We reviewed the scientific literature to inventory existing studies of common raven ( Corvus corax ; raven) ecology in western North America. We conducted an intial literature review between June 2015 and March 2018. Prior to completing our review, we revisited the published literature for any additional relevant studies in July 2021. Our goal was to identify knowledge gaps and to synthesize the current understanding of environmental features that may support raven populations that pose general threats to biodiversity and sensitive species in particular. We focused our review on studies with direct conservation applications related to 3 processes of raven ecology: occurrence, resource use, and demography. We identified covariates that researchers associated with these processes of raven ecology, and we also quantified the geographic distribution of studies. Our review identified 54 studies, with an increasing number of studies published per decade and a geographic bias characterized by more studies conducted in the Mojave and Columbia Plateau ecoregions than elsewhere. Most studies (44) reported on a single ecological process, but 10 studies reported on multiple ecological processes. Results related to raven occurrence appeared 31 times; demographic results appeared 21 times; and resource use was reported 17 times. We also identified 13 explanatory covariates regularly invoked to explain variation in raven ecological processes. Greater attention was given to covariates including vegetation land cover, human settlement, recreation, and linear rights-of-ways than were used to explain variation in ecological processes. Most demographic studies investigated raven reproduction exclusively, but a small number of studies considered raven survival exclusively or in combination with reproduction. Along with a detailed summary of individual studies provided as an appendix, we intend for our findings to serve as a reference and to help identify future research priorities.

Human–Wildlife Interactions↗

USGS2014

Demography and behavior of polar bears summering on land in Alaska

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the southern Beaufort Sea population (SB) are spending increased time on the coastal North Slope of Alaska between July and October (Gleason and Rode 2010). The duration spent on land by polar bears, satellite collared on the sea-ice in the spring, during the summer and fall has also increased (USGS, unpublished data; Figure 1). This change in polar bear ecology has relevance for human-bear interactions, subsistence harvest, prevalence of defense kills, and disturbance associated with existing land-based development [e.g., National Petroleum Reserve of Alaska (NPRA), Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR)], Native Alaskan communities, recreation (ANWR) and tourism (e.g., bear viewing in Kaktovik, AK). These activities have the potential to impact, in new ways, the status of the entire SB population. Concomitantly, the change in polar bear ecology will impact these human activities, and a base-line characterization of this phenomenon can better inform mitigation (e.g., industry permitting under the Endangered Species Act and Marine Mammal Protection Act). In this study we aim to characterize the demography, habitat-use, and aspects of foraging ecology and health of polar bears spending fall on land. The SB population is characterized by a divergent-sea ice ecology, where polar bears typically spend most of the year on the sea-ice, even as the pack ice retreats northward, away from the coast, to its minimal extent in September (Amstrup et al. 2008; Durner et al. 2009). From 2000 – 2005, using coastal aerial surveys, Schliebe et al. (2008) observed between 3.7 and 8% of polar bears from SB (~ 60 – 120 of 1526, Regher et al. 2006) on land during the autumn. Sighting probability was not estimated in these surveys, and therefore the numbers represent minimum numbers of bears on land. Our analysis of USGS data suggest an annual average of 15% (± 3%, SE) of polar bears satellite-tagged on the spring-time sea ice (total n = 18 of 124 satellite tags, 2003 – 2009) come to land during July – October. Based on these data, and an assumption that bears satellite-tagged on the spring time sea ice are representative of the entire SB population of independent bears, there would be an average of 230 bears on land each fall. In contrast to the SB population, in five of the world’s 19 polar bear populations (Obbard et al. 2010), polar bears spend significant periods of time on land (1 – 5 months) when ice completely melts. In these seasonal-ice populations (Amstrup et al. 2008), polar bears are largely in a hypophagic condition (e.g., Hobson et al. 2009), relying on fat stores from the spring hyperphagic season, when ringed seals (Phoca hispida) pup. In general, these seasonal-ice populations are demographically productive (Taylor et al. 2005), although recently an increase in the ice-free season has resulted in a population decline in western Hudson Bay (Stirling et al. 1999; Regehr et al. 2007). There have been measured declines in the body condition and productivity of polar bears in SB, and changes in these parameters have been linked to declining optimal ice habitat (e.g., Durner et al. 2009; Regehr et al. 2010). We do not understand the relationship between land-use and the overall status of the population. Individual polar bears that use land may have increased or decreased fitness, in comparison to polar bears that remain on ice in the autumn. This project, which focuses on the biology of animals that spend time on-shore, will help address this question. This project is funded by the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) under Agreement No. M09PG00025 and the USGS Outer Continental Shelf Program (OCS) for FY 2009-2014. Parts of this study are also funded by US Fish and Wildlife Service, Office of Marine Mammals Management; the Bureau of Land Management; and the North Slope Borough, Department of Wildlife Management. This report is comprehensive, describing results for achieving the overlap

Beaufort Sea, Chukchi Sea↗

USGS2011

Demography of the San Francisco gartersnake in coastal San Mateo County, California

The San Francisco gartersnake Thamnophis sirtalis tetrataenia has been federally listed as endangered since 1967, but little demographic information exists for this species. We examined the demography of a San Francisco gartersnake population on approximately 213 ha of California coastal prairie in San Mateo County, California, from 2007 to 2010. The best-supported mark–recapture model indicated annual variation in daily capture probabilities and annual survival rates. Abundance increased throughout the study period, with a mean total population from 2008 to 2010 of 443 (95% CI = 313–646) individuals. Annual survival was slightly greater than that of most other gartersnakes, with an annual probability of survival of 0.78 (0.55–0.95) in 2008–2009 and 0.75 (0.49–0.93) in 2009–2010. Mean annual per capita recruitment rates were 0.73 (0.02–2.50) in 2008–2009 and 0.47 (0.02–1.42) in 2009–2010. From 2008 to 2010, the probability of an increase in abundance at this site was 0.873, with an estimated increase of 115 (−82 to 326) individuals. The estimated population growth rate in 2008–2009 was 1.52 (0.73–3.29) and in 2009–2010 was 1.21 (0.70–2.17). Although this population is probably stable or increasing in the short term, long-term studies of the status of the San Francisco gartersnake at other sites are required to estimate population trends and to elucidate mechanisms that promote the recovery of this charismatic member of our native herpetofauna.

California↗

USGS2020

Understanding the effect of fire on vegetation composition and gross primary production in a semi-arid shrubland ecosystem using the Ecosystem Demography (EDv2.2) model

Wildfires in sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) dominated semi-arid ecosystems in the western United States have increased dramatically in frequency and severity in the last few decades. Severe wildfires often lead to the loss of native sagebrush communities and change the biogeochemical conditions which make it difficult for sagebrush to regenerate. Invasion of cheat- grass (Bromus tectorum) accentuates the problem by making the ecosystem more susceptible to frequent burns. Managers have implemented several techniques to cope with the cheatgrass-fire cycle, ranging from controlling undesirable fire effects by removing fuel loads either mechanically or via prescribed burns, to seeding the fire-affected areas with shrubs and native perennial forbs. There have been a number of studies at local scales to understand the direct impacts of wildfire on vegetation, however, there is a larger gap in understanding these impacts at broad spatial and temporal scales. This need highlights the importance of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and remote sensing. In this study, we explored the influence of fir on vegetation composition and gross primary production (GPP) in the sagebrush ecosystem using the Ecosystem Demography (EDv2.2) model, a dynamic global vegetation model. We selected Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed (RCEW) to run our simulation study, an intensively monitored sagebrush-dominated ecosystem in the northern Great Basin. We ran point-based simulations at four existing flux-tower sites in the study area for a total 150 years after turning on the fire module in the 25th year. Results suggest dominance of shrubs in a non-fire scenario, however under the fire scenario we observed contrasting phases of high and low shrub density and C3 grass growth. Regional model simulations showed a gradual decline in GPP for fire-introduced areas through the initial couple of years instead of killing all the vegetation in the affected area in the first year itself. We also compared the results from EDv2.2 with satellite-derived GPP estimates for the areas in RCEW burned by a wildfire in 2015 (Soda Fire). We observed moderate pixel-level correlations between maps of post-fire recovery EDv2.2 GPP and MODIS derived GPP. This study contributes to understanding the application of ecosystem models to investigate temporal dynamics of vegetation under alternative fire regimes and post-fire ecosystem restoration.

Idaho↗

USGS2019

Developing and optimizing shrub parameters representing sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) ecosystems in the Northern Great Basin using the Ecosystem Demography (EDv2.2) model

Ecosystem dynamic models are useful for understanding ecosystem characteristics over time and space because of their efficiency over direct field measurements and applicability to broad spatial extents. Their application, however, is challenging due to internal model uncertainties and complexities arising from distinct qualities of the ecosystems being analyzed. The sagebrush-steppe in western North America, for example, has substantial spatial and temporal heterogeneity as well as variability due to anthropogenic disturbance, invasive species, climate change, and altered fire regimes, which collectively make modelling dynamic ecosystem processes difficult. Ecosystem Demography (EDv2.2) is a robust ecosystem dynamic model, initially developed for tropical forests, that simulates energy, water, and carbon fluxes at fine scales. Although EDv2.2 has since been tested on different ecosystems via development of different Plant Function Types (PFT), it still lacks a shrub PFT. In this study, we developed and parameterized a shrub PFT representative of sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) ecosystems in order to initialize and test it within EDv2.2, and to promote future broad-scale analysis of restoration activities, climate change, and fire regimes in the sagebrush-steppe. Specifically, we parameterized the sagebrush PFT within EDv2.2 to estimate gross primary production (GPP), using data from two sagebrush study sites in the northern Great Basin. To accomplish this, we employed a three-tier approach: 1) To initially parameterize the sagebrush PFT, we fitted allometric relationships for sagebrush using field-collected data, information from existing sagebrush literature, and parameters from other land models. 2) To determine influential parameters in GPP prediction, we used a sensitivity analysis to identify the five most sensitive parameters. 3) To improve model performance and validate results, we optimized these five parameters using an exhaustive search method to estimate GPP, and compared results with observations from two Eddy Covariance (EC) sites in the study area. Our modeled results were encouraging, with reasonable fidelity to observed values, although some negative biases (i.e., seasonal underestimates of GPP) were apparent.

Great Basin↗

USGS2013

A non-marine source of variability in Adélie Penguin demography

A primary research objective of the Palmer Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) program has been to identify and understand the factors that regulate the demography of Adélie penguins ( Pygoscelis adeliae ). In this context, our work has been focused on variability in the marine environment on which this species depends for virtually all aspects of its life history (Ainley, 2002). As we show here, however, there are patterns evident in the population dynamics of Adélie penguins that are better explained by variability in breeding habitat quality rather than by variability in the marine system. Interactions between the geomorphology of the terrestrial environment that, in turn, affect patterns of snow deposition, drive breeding habitat quality.

Oceanography↗

USGS2010

Demographic studies of Joshua trees in Mojave Desert National Parks: demography with emphasis on germination and recruitment

The study of population change with regard to reproduction, seed dispersal, and germination, establishment, growth, and survival/mortality is known as demography. Demographic studies provide managers with information to assess future trends on the density, distribution, health, and population changes of importance or value, including Joshua trees (Yucca brevifolia). Demographic research provides the potential to understand the combined impacts of climate change and land-use practices and determine if strategies for protecting important species are likely to succeed or fall short of management goals and will identify factors that have the potential to de-stabilize populations outside the realm of natural variation so that management strategies can be developed to circumvent challenges for key species, processes, and ecosystems. The National Park Service and US Geological Survey are collaborating to collect demographic information about the demographics of Joshua tree in the Mojave Desert.

Arizona;California;Nevada↗

USGS2003

Demography of Dall's sheep in northwestern Alaska

Dall’s sheep in northwestern Alaska declined in the early 1990s following the severe 1989-90 and 1990-91 winters. In the Baird Mountains of Noatak National Preserve, estimates of adult sheep declined by 50% from 800 in 1989 to under 400 in 1991. Population counts remained low throughout 1991 to 1996, reaching a minimum of 244 adult sheep in 1996. Few lambs were observed during annual midsummer aerial surveys in 1991 to 1994. We suspect that these declines resulted from a combination of poorer nutritional condition and increased vulnerability of sheep to predation resulting from severe winter conditions. As a result of these declines, both subsistence and sport hunting seasons were closed by emergency order in 1991, resulting in substantial management controversy. The affected publics, although willing to accept the closures, questioned the validity of the sheep survey data and strongly emphasized their interest in restoring harvests as soon as populations increased sufficiently. In 1995 the Northwest Arctic Regional Advisory Council, the local advisory committee for the Federal Subsistence Board, passed a motion supporting efforts to initiate research on sheep populations in the region to better understand the factors limiting sheep populations and to evaluate sheep survey methodologies. Currently estimates of Dall’s sheep population size and composition in the western Brooks Range are based on intensive fixed-wing aerial surveys conducted annually since 1986 in areas including the Baird Mountains. The annual variation in recent Baird Mountains aerial counts cannot be explained with reasonable assumptions about reproduction and survival, suggesting that there is some variability in the proportion of the population observed each year or that a substantial number of sheep move during the survey. Prior to our research, no attempt had been made to estimate visibility bias or precision for these surveys. Our understanding of Dall’s sheep population biology comes largely from studies in central or southern Alaska and the southern Yukon. However, sheep in northwestern Alaska are at the northwestern extreme of their range and live in a less hospitable environment characterized by short growing seasons and long, severe winters. We expect patterns of productivity and survival for sheep in Noatak National Preserve to differ from the more southerly populations. To adequately manage sheep harvests in northwestern Alaska, we need a better understanding of sheep demography. Along with unbiased population estimates, understanding the dynamics of sheep populations in the region will allow population models to be developed that can provide focus for a useful dialog on management goals and strategies and facilitate a cooperative strategy for managing sheep harvests in northwestern Alaska.

Alaska↗

USGS2020

Genetic diversity, population structure, and historical demography of a highly vagile and human‐impacted seabird in the Pacific Ocean: The red‐tailed tropicbird, Phaethon rubricauda

Many seabird breeding colonies have recovered from heavy anthropogenic disturbance after conservation actions. The widely distributed red‐tailed tropicbird, Phaethon rubricauda , was used as a model species to assess potential anthropogenic impacts on the genetic diversity of breeding colonies in the Pacific Ocean. Cytochrome c oxidase subunit I and control region sequences analyses were conducted across the range of the species in the Pacific Ocean. The study sites were at islands without human‐related disturbance (non‐impacted islands) and with human‐related disturbance (impacted islands). We hypothesized that (i) breeding colonies of the red‐tailed tropicbird on impacted islands have lower genetic diversity compared with colonies on non‐impacted islands, and (ii) breeding colonies of the red‐tailed tropicbird show significant fine and broad‐scale genetic structure across the Pacific Ocean. Bayesian skyline analyses were conducted to infer past changes in population sizes. Genetic diversity was similar between impacted and non‐impacted islands. There was significant broad‐scale genetic structure among colonies separated by over 6,000 km, but a lack of significant fine‐scale genetic structure within Australasia and Hawai'i, although a significant level of differentiation was found within Chile with Φ ST analyses. Skyline analyses showed that effective population sizes remained relatively constant through time, but experienced either a slight decrease or the end of an expansion event through the last 1,000 years. These changes may be related to the arrival of humans on Pacific islands. Impacted islands may have received immigrants from other relatively close islands, buffering the loss of genetic diversity. However, it is also possible that colonies have retained ancestral variation or that a large effective population size coupled with a long generation time (13 years) has prevented the loss of genetic diversity in human‐impacted islands. Future research using higher‐resolution markers is needed to resolve the population genetic structure of the red‐tailed tropicbird in an ecological time‐scale.

Hawaii↗

USGS2019

Simulating demography, genetics, and spatially explicit processes to inform reintroduction of a threatened char

The success of species reintroductions can depend on a combination of environmental, demographic, and genetic factors. Although the importance of these factors in the success of reintroductions is well‐accepted, they are typically evaluated independently, which can miss important interactions. For species that persist in metapopulations, movement through and interaction with the landscape is predicted to be a vital component of persistence. Simulation‐based approaches are a promising technique for evaluating the independent and combined effects of these factors on the outcome of various reintroduction and associated management actions. We report results from a simulation study of bull trout ( Salvelinus confluentus ) reintroduction to three watersheds of the Pend Oreille River system in northeastern Washington State, USA. We used an individual‐based, spatially explicit simulation model to evaluate how reintroduction strategies, life history variation, and riverscape structure (e.g., network topology) interact to influence the demographic and genetic characteristics of reintroduced bull trout populations in three watersheds. Simulation scenarios included a range of initial genetic stocks (informed by empirical bull trout genetic data), variation in migratory tendency and life history, and two landscape connectivity alternatives representing a connected network (isolation‐by‐distance) and a fragmented network (isolation‐by‐barrier, using the known existing barriers). A novel feature of these simulations was the ability to consider the interaction of both demographic and genetic (i.e., demogenetic) factors in riverscapes with implicit asymmetric movement probabilities across the barriers. We found that connectivity (presence or absence of barriers) had the largest effect on demographic and genetic outcomes over 200 yr, with a greater effect than both initial genetic diversity and life history variation. We also identified regions of the study system in which bull trout populations persisted across a wide range of demographic, life history, and environmental connectivity parameters. Finally, we found no evidence that initial neutral genetic diversity influenced genetic diversity and structure after 200 yr; instead, genetic drift due to stray rate and population isolation dominated and erased any initial differences in genetic diversity. Our results highlight the utility of spatially explicit demogenetic approaches in exploring and understanding population dynamics—and their implications for management strategies—in fresh waters.

Washington↗

USGS2021

Demography of the Oregon spotted frog along a hydrologically modified river

Altered flow regimes can contribute to dissociation between life history strategies and environmental conditions, leading to reduced persistence reported for many wildlife populations inhabiting regulated rivers. The Oregon spotted frog ( Rana pretiosa ) is a threatened species occurring in floodplains, ponds, and wetlands in the Pacific Northwest with a core range in Oregon, USA. All life stages of R. pretiosa are reliant on aquatic habitats, and inundation patterns across the phenological timeline can have implications for population success. We conducted capture–mark–recapture (CMR) sampling of adult and subadult R. pretiosa at three sites along the Deschutes River downstream from two dams that regulate flows. We related the seasonal extent of inundated habitat at each site to monthly survival probabilities using a robust design CMR model. We also developed matrix projection models to simulate population dynamics into the future under current river flows. Monthly survival was strongly associated with the extent and variability of inundated habitat, suggesting some within-season fluctuations at higher water levels could be beneficial. Seasonal survival was lowest in the winter for all three sites, owing to limited water availability and the greater number of months within this season relative to other seasons. Population growth for the two river-connected sites was most strongly linked to adult survival, whereas population growth at the river-disconnected site was most strongly tied to survival in juvenile stages. This research identifies population effects of seasonally limited water and highlights conservation potential of enhancing survival of particularly influential life stages.

Oregon↗

USGS2021

Shifting correlations among multiple aspects of weather complicate predicting future demography of a threatened species

Most studies of the ecological effects of climate change consider only a limited number of weather drivers that could affect populations, though we know that multiple weather drivers can simultaneously affect population growth rate. Multiple drivers could simultaneously increase/decrease one vital rate, or one may increase a vital rate while another decreases the same vital rate. Considering the impact of multiple weather drivers on vital rates is particularly important in a changing climate, in which correlations among drivers may not be preserved in the future. We used a long-term dataset on the endangered red-cockaded woodpecker ( Dryobates borealis ) to understand how multiple weather drivers jointly affect survival and reproductive vital rates and then assessed the contributions of individual weather drivers to historical trends in vital rates over time. We found that vital rates were often influenced by more than one weather driver and that weather drivers most commonly exerted opposing effects. For instance, some weather drivers increased vital rates over time, while others acted in the opposite direction, decreasing vital rates over time. Importantly, the historical correlations among weather drivers are almost always projected to change in the future climate, such that future trends in vital rates may not match historical trends. For example, we do not find historical trends in adult survival, but changing correlations among weather drivers could generate future trends in this vital rate. Our work provides an example of how multiple weather drivers can control a variety of vital rates and also illustrates how changes in the correlation structure of weather drivers through time might substantially affect future trends in individual and population performance.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2020

Demography of snowshoe hare population cycles

Cyclic fluctuations in abundance exhibited by some mammalian populations in northern habitats (“population cycles”) are key processes in the functioning of many boreal and tundra ecosystems. Understanding population cycles, essentially demographic processes, necessitates discerning the demographic mechanisms that underlie numerical changes. Using mark–recapture data spanning five population cycles (1977–2017), we examined demographic mechanisms underlying the 9–10‐yr cycles exhibited by snowshoe hares ( Lepus americanus Erxleben) in southwestern Yukon, Canada. Snowshoe hare populations always decreased during winter and increased during summer; the balance between winter declines and summer increases characterized the four, multiyear cyclic phases: increase, peak, decline, and low. Little or no recruitment occurred during winter, but summer recruitment varied markedly across the four phases with the highest and lowest recruitment observed during the increase and decline phase, respectively. Population crashes during the decline were triggered by a substantial decline in winter survival and by a lack of subsequent summer recruitment. In contrast, initiation of the increase phase was triggered by a twofold increase in summer recruitment abetted secondarily by improvements in subsequent winter survival. We show that differences in peak density across cycles are explained by differences in overall population growth rate, amount of time available for population growth to occur, and starting population density. Demographic mechanisms underlying snowshoe hare population cycles were consistent across cycles in our study site but we do not yet know if similar demographic processes underlie population cycles in other northern snowshoe hare populations.

Yukon↗

USGS2016

Influence of demography and environment on persistence in toad populations

Effective conservation of rare species requires an understanding of how potential threats affect population dynamics. Unfortunately, information about population demographics prior to threats (i.e., baseline data) is lacking for many species. Perturbations, caused by climate change, disease, or other stressors can lead to population declines and heightened conservation concerns. Boreal toads ( Anaxyrus boreas boreas ) have undergone rangewide declines due mostly to the amphibian chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), with only a few sizable populations remaining in the southern Rocky Mountains, USA, that are disease-free. Despite the apparent region-wide occurrence of Bd, our focal populations in central Colorado were disease free over a 14-year capture-mark-recapture study until the recent discovery of Bd at one of the sites. We used recapture data and the Pradel reverse-time model to assess the influence of environmental and site-specific conditions on survival and recruitment. We then forecast changes in the toad populations with 2 growth models; one using an average lambda value to initiate the projection, and one using the most recent value to capture potential effects of the incursion of disease into the system. Adult survival was consistently high at the 3 sites, whereas recruitment was more variable and markedly low at 1 site. We found that active season moisture, active season length, and breeding shallows were important factors in estimating recruitment. Population growth models indicated a slight increase at 1 site but decreasing trends at the 2 other sites, possibly influenced by low recruitment. Insight into declining species management can be gained from information on survival and recruitment and how site-specific environmental factors influence these demographic parameters. Our data are particularly useful because they provide baseline data on demographics in populations before a disease outbreak and enhance our ability to detect changes in population parameters potentially caused by the disease.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2021

Contrasting patterns of demography and population viability among gopher tortoise (Gopherus polyphemus) populations at the species’ northern range edge

Population viability analyses are useful tools to predict abundance and extinction risk for imperiled species. In southeastern North America, the federally threatened gopher tortoise ( Gopherus polyphemus ) is a keystone species in the diverse and imperiled longleaf pine ( Pinus palustris ) ecosystem, and researchers have suggested that tortoise populations are declining and characterized by high extinction risk. We report results from a 30-year demographic study of gopher tortoises in southern Alabama (1991–2020), where 3 populations have been stable and 3 others have declined. To better understand the demographic vital rates associated with stable and declining tortoise populations, we used a multi-state hierarchical mark-recapture model to estimate sex- and stage-specific patterns of demographic vital rates at each population. We then built a predictive population model to project population dynamics and evaluate extinction risk in a population viability context. Population structure did not change significantly in stable populations, but juveniles became less abundant in declining populations over 30 years. Apparent survival varied by age, sex, and site; adults had higher survival than juveniles, but female survival was substantially lower in declining populations than in stable ones. Using simulations, we predicted that stable populations with high female survival would persist over the next 100 years but sites with lower female survival would decline, become male-biased, and be at high risk of extirpation. Stable populations were most sensitive to changes in apparent survival of adult females. Because local populations varied greatly in vital rates, our analysis improves upon previous demographic models for northern populations of gopher tortoises by accounting for population-level variation in demographic patterns and, counter to previous model predictions, suggests that small tortoise populations can persist when habitat is managed effectively. © 2021 The Wildlife Society.

Alabama↗