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At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2007

Variation in northern bobwhite demography along two temporal scales

Quantification and understanding of demographic variation across intra- and inter-annual temporal scales can benefit from the development of theoretical models of evolution and applied conservation of species. We used long-term survey data for northern bobwhites (Colinus virginianus) collected at the northern and southern extent of its geographic range to develop matrix population models which would allow investigation of intra- and inter-annual patterns in bobwhite population dynamics. We first evaluated intra-annual patterns in the importance of a seasonal demographic rate to asymptotic population growth rate with prospective perturbation analysis (elasticity analysis). We then conducted retrospective analysis (life table response experiments) of inter-annual patterns in the contribution of observed changes in demography to the observed change in population growth rate. Survival in the earliest age class during the nonbreeding season had the greatest potential influence in both the northern and southern populations. Examination of inter-annual variation in demography indicated that variation in nonbreeding season survival in the earliest age class contributed the most to observed changes in population growth rate in the northern population. In contrast, changes in fertility in the earliest age class in the southern population had the greatest influence on changes in population growth rate. Prospective elasticity analyses highlight the similarities in bobwhite demography throughout different parts of its geographic range, while retrospective life table response experiments revealed important patterns in the temporal differences of bobwhite life history at the northern and southern extent of its geographic range. ?? 2007 The Society of Population Ecology and Springer.

Population Ecology↗
USGS2025

Spatially explicit demographics of Mojave Desert Tortoises on a demography plot in California, USA

Obtaining reliable estimates of demographic parameters is critical to effective wildlife conservation and management. Densities of Mojave Desert Tortoises ( Gopherus agassizii ) were historically derived from capture–mark–recapture surveys on small, often strategically placed demography plots, or demographic study areas, that also provided information on demographic composition and vital rates. After protection was afforded to Desert Tortoises under the US Endangered Species Act in 1990, monitoring shifted mostly to line-distance sampling across broad areas for estimating densities of primarily adult tortoises to inform long-term population trends. However, that approach is incapable of providing data about other demographic characteristics important to population growth and viability. We surveyed a previously unsampled demography plot in the western Mojave Desert, California, USA, during 2022 and applied spatial capture–recapture (SCR) models to estimate spatially explicit Desert Tortoise density and sex-by-size class compositions. Directly accounting for spatiotemporally varying survey effort in SCR models via hazard-based adjustment reduced the estimated detection rate by 91% and increased the estimated density by 17%. Estimated spatial mean Desert Tortoise density across a 2.53-km 2 area was 18.53 tortoises/km 2 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 12.36–27.77). The SCR model–estimated size class ratio was skewed toward prereproductive tortoises (64% prereproductive; 36% adults), whereas the adult sex ratio was female biased (61% females; 39% males). Those ratios corresponded to densities of 11.86 prereproductive tortoises/km 2 (95% CI = 7.91–17.77), 4.08 adult female tortoises/km 2 (95% CI = 2.72–6.11), and 2.59 adult male tortoises/km 2 (95% CI = 1.73–3.89). Estimated tortoise density and demographic composition collectively support a high potential for population growth. Our study provides an illustrative example of using SCR models to directly estimate spatially explicit local Desert Tortoise densities and demographic composition that can be used for long-term monitoring and comparisons with other demography plots to inform conservation.

California↗
USGS2010

Uncloaking a cryptic, threatened rail with molecular markers: origins, connectivity and demography of a recently-discovered population

The threatened California Black Rail lives under dense marsh vegetation, is rarely observed, flies weakly and has a highly disjunct distribution. The largest population of rails is found in 8–10 large wetlands in San Francisco Bay (SF Bay), but a population was recently discovered in the foothills of the Sierra Nevada Mountains (Foothills), within a wetland network comprised of over 200 small marshes. Using microsatellite and mitochondrial analyses, our objectives were to determine the origins, connectivity and demography of this recently-discovered population. Analyses of individuals from the Foothills ( n = 31), SF Bay ( n = 31), the Imperial Valley ( n = 6) and the East Coast ( n = 3), combined with rigorous power evaluations, provided valuable insights into past history and current dynamics of the species in Northern California that challenge conventional wisdom about the species. The Foothills and SF Bay populations have diverged strongly from the Imperial Valley population, even more strongly than from individuals of the East Coast subspecies. The data also suggest a historical presence of the species in the Foothills. The SF Bay and Foothills populations had similar estimated effective population size over the areas sampled and appeared linked by a strongly asymmetrical migration pattern, with a greater probability of movement from the Foothills to SF Bay than vice versa. Random mating was inferred in the Foothills, but local substructure among marshes and inbreeding were detected in SF Bay, suggesting different dispersal patterns within each location. The unexpected dimensions of Black Rail demography and population structure suggested by these analyses and their potential importance for management are discussed.

California↗
USGS2022

Importance of local weather and environmental gradients on demography of a broadly distributed temperate frog

Amphibian populations are sensitive to environmental temperatures and moisture, which vary with local weather conditions and may reach new norms and extremes as contemporary climate change progresses. Using long-term (11–16 years) mark-recapture data from 10 populations of the Columbia spotted frog ( Rana luteiventris ) from across its U.S. range, we addressed hypotheses about how demographic relationships to weather depend upon a population’s position along climate gradients. We estimated the effect of seasonal weather on annual survival probability and recruitment rates both within populations and across the species’ range from subalpine forests to semi-arid deserts. We calculated population-specific weather variables that captured seasonal temperature and precipitation between summer sampling events, both for periods when frogs were active (spring to fall) and inactive (winter). Across all populations, we marked 15,885 adult frogs, with 33% of frogs recaptured at least once. Population demography varied with seasonal weather across the species’ range. Annual adult survival probability and recruitment rates of each population were influenced by a unique set of seasonal temperature and precipitation variables, particularly in winter and spring. Hence, adult survival varied with local conditions but, when analyzed across all populations, was predictable along a species-environment response curve associated with the timing of snowmelt and spring moisture. In contrast, recruitment rates for each population peaked at different values along an environmental gradient associated with the amount of snow during winter, and fall temperature and moisture levels, suggesting that recruitment may be responding to local conditions independently within each population. These findings highlight that sampling across the environmental (i.e., elevational and meteorological) gradients within a species range is necessary to predict species-level responses to regional climate change. This study also provides evidence of the importance of winter conditions on the demography of temperate amphibians, conditions that are already responding to climate change. Finally, this study further emphasizes that local context and spatiotemporal scale of inquiry remain paramount to understanding and potentially managing for climate effects on populations of amphibian species with broad geographic ranges.

Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon↗
USGS2017

Experts correctly describe demography associated with historical decline of the endangered Indiana bat, but not recent period of stationarity

Demographic characteristics of bats are often insufficiently described for modeling populations. In data poor situations, experts are often relied upon for characterizing ecological systems. In concert with the development of a matrix model describing Indiana bat ( Myotis sodalis ) demography, we elicited estimates for parameterizing this model from 12 experts. We conducted this elicitation in two stages, requesting expert values for 12 demographic rates. These rates were adult and juvenile seasonal (winter, summer, fall) survival rates, pup survival in fall, and propensity and success at breeding. Experts were most in agreement about adult fall survival (3% Coefficient of Variation) and least in agreement about propensity of juveniles to breed (37% CV). The experts showed greater concordance for adult ( mean CV, adult = 6.2%) than for juvenile parameters ( mean CV, juvenile = 16.4%), and slightly more agreement for survival (mean CV, survival = 9.8%) compared to reproductive rates ( mean CV, reproduction = 15.1%). However, survival and reproduction were negatively and positively biased, respectively, relative to a stationary dynamic. Despite the species exhibiting near stationary dynamics for two decades prior to the onset of a potential extinction-causing agent, white-nose syndrome, expert estimates indicated a population decline of -11% per year (95% CI = -2%, -20%); quasi-extinction was predicted within a century ( mean = 61 years to QE, range = 32, 97) by 10 of the 12 experts. Were we to use these expert estimates in our modeling efforts, we would have errantly trained our models to a rapidly declining demography asymptomatic of recent demographic behavior. While experts are sometimes the only source of information, a clear understanding of the temporal and spatial context of the information being elicited is necessary to guard against wayward predictions.

PeerJ↗
USGS2016

Evaluating within-population variability in behavior and demography for the adaptive potential of a dispersal-limited species to climate change

Multiple pathways exist for species to respond to changing climates. However, responses of dispersal-limited species will be more strongly tied to ability to adapt within existing populations as rates of environmental change will likely exceed movement rates. Here, we assess adaptive capacity in Plethodon cinereus , a dispersal-limited woodland salamander. We quantify plasticity in behavior and variation in demography to observed variation in environmental variables over a 5-year period. We found strong evidence that temperature and rainfall influence P. cinereus surface presence, indicating changes in climate are likely to affect seasonal activity patterns. We also found that warmer summer temperatures reduced individual growth rates into the autumn, which is likely to have negative demographic consequences. Reduced growth rates may delay reproductive maturity and lead to reductions in size-specific fecundity, potentially reducing population-level persistence. To better understand within-population variability in responses, we examined differences between two common color morphs. Previous evidence suggests that the color polymorphism may be linked to physiological differences in heat and moisture tolerance. We found only moderate support for morph-specific differences for the relationship between individual growth and temperature. Measuring environmental sensitivity to climatic variability is the first step in predicting species' responses to climate change. Our results suggest phenological shifts and changes in growth rates are likely responses under scenarios where further warming occurs, and we discuss possible adaptive strategies for resulting selective pressures.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2022

Environmental drivers of demography and potential factors limiting the recovery of an endangered marine top predator

Understanding what drives changes in wildlife demography is fundamental to the conservation and management of depleted or declining populations, though making inference about the intrinsic and extrinsic factors that influence survival and reproduction remains challenging. Here we use mark–resight data from 2000 to 2018 to examine the effects of environmental variability on age-specific survival and natality for the endangered western distinct population segment (wDPS) of Steller sea lions ( Eumetopias jubatus ) in Alaska, USA. Though this population has been studied extensively over the last four decades, the causes of divergent abundance trends that have been observed across the wDPS range remain unknown. We developed a Bayesian multievent mark–resight model that accounts for female reproductive state uncertainty. Annual survival probabilities for male pups (0.44; 0.36–0.53), female yearlings (0.63; 0.49–0.73), and male yearlings (0.62; 0.51–0.71) born in the western portion of the wDPS range, estimated here for the first time, were lower than those in the eastern portion of the wDPS range, estimated as: male pups (0.69; 0.65–0.74), female yearlings (0.76; 0.71–0.81), and male yearlings (0.71; 0.65–0.78). There was a higher proportion of young female breeders in the western portion of the range, but overall natality was lower (0.69; 0.47–0.96) than in the eastern portion of the range (0.80; 0.74–0.84). Additionally, pup mass had a positive effect on pup survival in the eastern portion of the range and a negative effect in the western portion of the range, potentially due to earlier weaning of heavier pups. Local- and basin-scale oceanographic features such as the Aleutian Low, the Arctic Oscillation Index, the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation, chlorophyll concentration, upwelling, and wind in certain seasons were correlated with vital rates. However, drawing strong inferences from these correlations is challenging given that relationships between ocean conditions and an adaptive top predator in a dynamic ecosystem are exceedingly complex. This study provides the first demographic rate estimates for the western portion of the range where abundance estimates continue to decline. These results will advance efforts to identify factors driving regionally divergent abundance trends, with implications for population-level responses to future climate variability.

Alaska↗
USGS1987

Post-fire demography of resprout and seedling establishment by Adenostoma fasciculatum in the California chaparral

Adenostoma fasciculatum (chamise) forms the dominant element of chaparral ecosystems in California. This evergreen, ericoid-leaved shrub occurs as a codominant in mixed chaparral or an overwhelming dominant in chamise chaparral, being present in over 70% of the chaparral stands in the state (Hanes 1971). No other chaparral shrub approaches A. fasciculatum in community importance. Unlike the majority of chaparral shrubs which respond to fire by either resprouting or reseeding, A. fasciculatum , utilizes both reproductive strategies (Wells 1969; Keeley and Zedler 1978; see also Hilbert in this volume). Although there have been numerous studies of succession in chamise chaparral (Horton and Kraebel 1955; Hanes 1971), no research to date has focused on the important questions of the demography of resprouting and seedling establishment by A. fasciculatum in the first few years following chaparral fires. Is there significant mortality of chamise burls during fires? How do fire seasonality and intensity affect resprout survival and growth? How do chamise seedlings compete with resprouts for establishment in postfire stands? What factors limit chamise seedling survival and growth? These are all important questions. In this paper we present results of a three-year study of the demographics of resprout mortality and growth and of seedling establishment for A. fasciculatum following burn and clip treatments at two seasons of the year in mature stands of chamise chaparral in the southern Sierra Nevada, California.

California↗
USGS2022

Climate and landscape controls on old-growth western juniper demography in the northern Great Basin, USA

Western juniper ( Juniperus occidentalis Hook.) woodlands have persisted for millennia in semiarid parts of the northern Great Basin, USA, providing critical habitat for plant and animal species. Historical records suggest that the establishment of western juniper is strongly associated with regional climatic variability. For example, the abundance of western juniper pollen and macrofossils measured in lake sediment cores increased rapidly in the mid-1500s, concurrent with a regional increase in winter precipitation. However, little is known about how climatic factors interact with landscape structure to control the spatial distribution of western juniper at fine scales and at lower treelines. We used tree rings to reconstruct a spatially distributed history of establishment for 421 western juniper trees across 130 ha on Horse Ridge in central Oregon. Establishment occurred between 845 and 1961 CE, but most trees established after the mid-1550s. The pronounced sixteenth century pulse of establishment represents a transition from more open wooded shrublands to persistent woodlands and coincides with an increase in cool-season moisture and generally cool summer temperatures. Ancient trees that established before this were limited to certain microsites, suggesting that local topoedaphic conditions influenced juniper woodland demography and distributions, although we could not identify consistent environmental drivers. In the future, warmer and drier growing season conditions and a potential increase in wildfire activity may broadly limit western juniper recruitment and its distribution across the region, but at finer scales landscape features that buffer climate change impacts or provide fire safe niches may serve as refugia.

Oregon↗
USGS2012

Demography and movement patterns of leopard sharks (Triakis semifasciata) aggregating near the head of a submarine canyon along the open coast of southern California, USA

The demography, spatial distribution, and movement patterns of leopard sharks (Triakis semifasciata) aggregating near the head of a submarine canyon in La Jolla, California, USA, were investigated to resolve the causal explanations for this and similar shark aggregations. All sharks sampled from the aggregation site ( n =140) were sexually mature and 97.1 % were female. Aerial photographs taken during tethered balloon surveys revealed high densities of milling sharks of up to 5470 sharks ha -1 . Eight sharks were each tagged with a continuous acoustic transmitter and manually tracked without interruption for up to 48 h. Sharks exhibited strong site-fidelity and were generally confined to a divergence (shadow) zone of low wave energy, which results from wave refraction over the steep bathymetric contours of the submarine canyon. Within this divergence zone, the movements of sharks were strongly localized over the seismically active Rose Canyon Fault. Tracked sharks spent most of their time in shallow water (≤2 m for 71.0 % and ≤10 m for 95.9 % of time), with some dispersing to deeper (max: 53.9 m) and cooler (min: 12.7 °C) water after sunset, subsequently returning by sunrise. These findings suggest multiple functions of this aggregation and that the mechanism controlling its formation, maintenance, and dissolution is complex and rooted in the sharks' variable response to numerous confounding environmental factors.

California↗
USGS2021

Performance of the ecosystem demography model (EDv2.2) in simulating gross primary production capacity and activity in a dryland study area

Dryland ecosystems play an important role in the global carbon cycle, including regulating the inter-annual global carbon sink. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) are essential tools that can help us better understand carbon cycling in different ecosystems. Currently, there is limited knowledge of the performance of these models in drylands partly due to characterizing the heterogeneity of the vegetation and hydrometeorological conditions. The aim of this study is to evaluate the performance of a DGVM for drylands to facilitate improved understanding of gross primary production (GPP) as one of the important components of the carbon cycle. We performed a sensitivity analysis and calibrated the Ecosystem Demography (EDv2.2) DGVM to simulate GPP in a dryland watershed (Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed, Idaho) in the western US for the years 2000-2017. GPP capacity and activity were investigated by comparing model simulations with GPP estimated from eddy covariance data (available from 2015-2017) and remote sensing products (2000-2017). Our results show good performance of EDv2.2 at daily timesteps ( R M S E ≈ 0.38 [ kgC / m 2 / year ] ) "> RMSE≈0.38[kgC/m2/year])

Idaho↗
USGS2020

Parsing the effects of demography, climate, and management on recurrent brucellosis outbreaks in elk

1. Zoonotic pathogens can harm human health and well-being directly or by impacting livestock. Pathogens that spillover from wildlife can also impair conservation efforts if humans perceive wildlife as pests. Brucellosis, caused by the bacterium Brucella abortus, circulates in elk and bison herds of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem and poses a risk to cattle and humans. Our goal was to understand the relative effects of climatic drivers, host demography, and management control programs on disease dynamics. 2. Using >20 years of serologic, demographic, and environmental data on brucellosis in elk, we built stochastic compartmental models to assess the influences of climate forcing, herd immunity, population turnover, and management interventions on pathogen transmission. Data were collected at feedgrounds visited in winter by free-ranging elk in Wyoming, USA. 3. Snowpack, hypothesized as a driver of elk aggregation and thus brucellosis transmission, was strongly correlated across feedgrounds. We expected this variable to drive synchronized disease dynamics across herds. Instead, we demonstrate asynchronous epizootics driven by variation in demographic rates. 4. We evaluated the effectiveness of test-and-slaughter of seropositive female elk at two feedgrounds. Test-and-slaughter temporarily reduced herd-level seroprevalence but likely reduced herd immunity while removing few infectious individuals, resulting in subsequent outbreaks once the intervention ceased. We simulated an alternative strategy of removing seronegative female elk and found it would increase herd immunity, yielding fewer infections. We evaluated a second experimental treatment wherein feeding density was reduced at one feedground, but we found no evidence for an effect despite a decade of implementation. 5. Synthesis and applications: Positive serostatus is often weakly correlated with infectiousness but is nevertheless used to make management decisions including lethal removal in wildlife disease systems. We show how this can have adverse consequences whereas efforts that maintain herd immunity can have longer-term protective effects. Climatic drivers may not result in synchronous disease dynamics across populations unless vital rates are also similar because demographic factors have a large influence on disease patterns.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗
USGS2007

Linking resources with demography to understand resource limitation for bears

1. Identifying the resources that limit growth of animal populations is essential for effective conservation; however, resource limitation is difficult to quantify. Recent advances in geographical information systems (GIS) and resource modelling can be combined with demographic modelling to yield insights into resource limitation. 2. Using long-term data on a population of black bears Ursus americanus, we evaluated competing hypotheses about whether availability of hard mast (acorns and nuts) or soft mast (fleshy fruits) limited bears in the southern Appalachians, USA, during 1981-2002. The effects of clearcutting on habitat quality were also evaluated. Annual survival, recruitment and population growth rate were estimated using capture-recapture data from 101 females. The availability of hard mast, soft mast and clearcuts was estimated with a GIS, as each changed through time as a result of harvest and succession, and then availabilities were incorporated as covariates for each demographic parameter. 3. The model with the additive availability of hard mast and soft mast across the landscape predicted survival and population growth rate. Availability of young clearcuts predicted recruitment, but not population growth or survival. 4. Availability of hard mast stands across the landscape and availability of soft mast across the landscape were more important than hard mast production and availability of soft mast in young clearcuts, respectively. 5. Synthesis and applications. Our results indicate that older stands, which support high levels of hard mast and moderate levels of soft mast, should be maintained to sustain population growth of bears in the southern Appalachians. Simultaneously, the acreage of intermediate aged stands (10-25 years), which support very low levels of both hard mast and soft mast, should be minimized. The approach used in this study has broad application for wildlife management and conservation. State and federal wildlife agencies often possess long-term data on both resource availability and capture-recapture for wild populations. Combined, these two data types can be used to estimate survival, recruitment, population growth, elasticities of vital rates and the effects of resource availability on demographic parameters. Hence data that are traditionally used to understand population trends can be used to evaluate how and why demography changes over time. ?? 2007 The Authors.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2022

Genetic structure and historic demography of endangered unarmoured threespine stickleback at southern latitudes signals a potential new management approach

Habitat loss, flood control infrastructure, and drought have left most of southern California and northern Baja California's native freshwater fish near extinction, including the endangered unarmoured threespine stickleback ( Gasterosteus aculeatus williamsoni ). This subspecies, an unusual morph lacking the typical lateral bony plates of the G. aculeatus complex, occurs at arid southern latitudes in the eastern Pacific Ocean and survives in only three inland locations. Managers have lacked molecular data to answer basic questions about the ancestry and genetic distinctiveness of unarmoured populations. These data could be used to prioritize conservation efforts. We sampled G. aculeatus from 36 localities and used microsatellites and whole genome data to place unarmoured populations within the broader evolutionary context of G. aculeatus across southern California/northern Baja California. We identified three genetic groups with none consisting solely of unarmoured populations. Unlike G. aculeatus at northern latitudes, where Pleistocene glaciation has produced similar historical demographic profiles across populations, we found markedly different demographics depending on sampling location, with inland unarmoured populations showing steeper population declines and lower heterozygosity compared to low armoured populations in coastal lagoons. One exception involved the only high elevation population in the region, where the demography and alleles of unarmoured fish were similar to low armoured populations near the coast, exposing one of several cases of artificial translocation. Our results suggest that the current “management-by-phenotype” approach, based on lateral plates, is incidentally protecting the most imperilled populations; however, redirecting efforts toward evolutionary units, regardless of phenotype, may more effectively preserve adaptive potential.

Baja California, California↗
USGS2016

Leaf development and demography explain photosynthetic seasonality in Amazon evergreen forests

In evergreen tropical forests, the extent, magnitude, and controls on photosynthetic seasonality are poorly resolved and inadequately represented in Earth system models. Combining camera observations with ecosystem carbon dioxide fluxes at forests across rainfall gradients in Amazônia, we show that aggregate canopy phenology, not seasonality of climate drivers, is the primary cause of photosynthetic seasonality in these forests. Specifically, synchronization of new leaf growth with dry season litterfall shifts canopy composition toward younger, more light-use efficient leaves, explaining large seasonal increases (~27%) in ecosystem photosynthesis. Coordinated leaf development and demography thus reconcile seemingly disparate observations at different scales and indicate that accounting for leaf-level phenology is critical for accurately simulating ecosystem-scale responses to climate change.

Science↗
USGS1995

A ten-year history of the demography and productivity of an Arctic wolf pack

A pack of two to eight adult wolves ( Canis lupus arctos ) and their pups was observed during ten summers (1986-95) on Ellesmere Island, Northwest Territories, Canada. The author habituated the wolf pack to his presence in the first summer and reinforced the habituation each summer thereafter. The first alpha female produced four to six pups each year between 1986 and 1989. However, her daughter, who succeeded her as the alpha female, produced only one to three pups each year between 1990 and 1992 and in 1994, and apparently did not whelp in 1993 or in 1995. The tenure of the first alpha male was at least two years, and his successor was alpha male for the remaining eight years of the study. The wolf pack was characterized by highly variable annual productivity. The second alpha male-and-female breeding pair likely was an older brother and a younger sister. Early survival of wolf pups was high and constant, with all pups surviving through August of their first year. The pack's demography was consistent with what is known for wolf packs in other regions of North America, but its productivity was more typical of arctic packs.

Ellesmere Island↗
USGS2006

Demography, genetics, and the value of mixed messages

Iverson et al. (2004) used estimates of the homing rate for molting adult Harlequin Ducks ( Histrionicus histrionicus ) in Alaska to draw inferences about population structure. Homing rates, defined as one minus the ratio of birds recaptured elsewhere to those recaptured at the original banding site, were high (0.95–1.00) for males and females. Iverson et al. (2004) concluded that these high rates of homing are indicative of demographic independence among molting groups separated by small distances (tens to hundreds of kilometers) and that conservation efforts should recognize this fine-scale population structure. We re-examined their use of the homing rate, because their assumption of equal detection probability across a wide sampling area could have led to an upward bias in their estimates of site fidelity. As a result, we are hesitant to agree with their conclusion of high adult homing to molting areas and that molt-site fidelity is evidence for demographic independence. Our hesitancy stems from the fact that little is known about juvenile and adult movements within and among years, breeding area origins, and the variation of demographic parameters (e.g., survival and productivity) among molting groups. Furthermore, population genetic data of these molting groups suggest gene flow at both nuclear and mitochondrial loci. Such mixed messages between demographic (i.e., banding) and genetic data are increasingly common in ornithological studies and offer unique opportunities to reassess predictions and make more robust inferences about population structure across broad temporal and spatial scales. Thus, we stress that it is this broader scale perspective, which combines both demography and genetics, that biologists should seek to quantify and conservation efforts should seek to recognize.

Condor↗
USGS2020

Effects of snowpack, temperature, and disease on the demography of a wild population of amphibians

Understanding the demographic consequences of interactions among pathogens, hosts, and weather conditions is critical in determining how amphibian populations respond to disease and in identifying site-specific conservation actions that can be developed to bolster persistence of amphibian populations. We investigated population dynamics in Boreal Toads ( Anaxyrus boreas ) relative to abiotic (fall temperatures and snowpack) and biotic (the abundance of another anuran host and disease) characteristics of the local environment in Wyoming, USA. We used capture–recapture data and a multistate model where state was treated as a hidden Markov process to incorporate disease state uncertainty and assess our a priori hypotheses. Our results indicated that snowpack during the coldest week of winter is more influential to toad survival, disease transition probabilities, and the population-level prevalence of the amphibian chytrid fungus ( Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis ) in the spring, than temperatures in the fall or the presence of another host. As hypothesized, apparent survival at low (i.e., <25 cm) snowpack (0.22; confidence interval [CI] = 0.15–0.31) was lower than apparent survival at high snowpack (90.65; CI = 0.50–0.78). Our findings highlight the potential for local environmental factors, like snowpack, to influence disease and host persistence, and demonstrate the ecological complexity of disease effects on population demography in natural environments. This work further emphasizes the need for improved understanding of how climate change may influence the relationships among pathogens, hosts, and their environment for wild animal populations challenged by disease.

Wyoming↗