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At least 343 records · Page 19Linked to original sources
USGS2016

A cellular automata downscaling based 1 km global land use datasets (2010–2100)

Global climate and environmental change studies require detailed land-use and land-cover(LULC) information about the past, present, and future. In this paper, we discuss a methodology for downscaling coarse-resolution (i.e., half-degree) future land use scenarios to finer (i.e., 1 km) resolutions at the global scale using a grid-based spatially explicit cellular automata (CA) model. We account for spatial heterogeneity from topography, climate, soils, and socioeconomic variables. The model uses a global 30 m land cover map (2010) as the base input, a variety of biogeographic and socioeconomic variables, and an empirical analysis to downscale coarse-resolution land use information (specifically urban, crop and pasture). The output of this model offers the most current and finest-scale future LULC dynamics from 2010 to 2100 (with four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios—RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5) at a 1 km resolution within a globally consistent framework. The data are freely available for download, and will enable researchers to study the impacts of LULC change at the local scale.

Science Bulletin↗
USGS2012

The National Land Cover Database

The National Land Cover Database (NLCD) serves as the definitive Landsat-based, 30-meter resolution, land cover database for the Nation. NLCD provides spatial reference and descriptive data for characteristics of the land surface such as thematic class (for example, urban, agriculture, and forest), percent impervious surface, and percent tree canopy cover. NLCD supports a wide variety of Federal, State, local, and nongovernmental applications that seek to assess ecosystem status and health, understand the spatial patterns of biodiversity, predict effects of climate change, and develop land management policy. NLCD products are created by the Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics (MRLC) Consortium, a partnership of Federal agencies led by the U.S. Geological Survey. All NLCD data products are available for download at no charge to the public from the MRLC Web site: http://www.mrlc.gov.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2022

Montana and Landsat

The landscapes beneath Montana’s big sky are as breathtaking as the State’s nickname would suggest. Visitors to the 41st State's "Big Sky Country" can take in the stunning icy hues of aquamarine at Glacier National Park; explore the northern swaths of Yellowstone National Park; or hike, bike, or boat through Bighorn Canyon National Recreation Area, and those are just the National parks. Montana is the fourth-largest State by land area, with miles upon miles of forests, rolling prairie rangelands, croplands, badlands, and mountains, from which flow a sizable part of the Nation’s water supply. The headwaters of the Missouri River, which covers 2,341 miles before merging with the Mississippi River, are located in Three Forks, Montana. On the opposite side of the Continental Divide, the Kootenai, Clark Fork, Blackfoot, Bitterroot, and Flathead Rivers flow across Montana and into the Columbia River, which ultimately empties into the Pacific Ocean. The Treasure State’s cherished landscapes face many threats, however: fire-fueling invasive grasses, increasing temperatures caused by climate change, shifting land use patterns, water supply contractions, and more. The U.S. Geological Survey Landsat satellite program’s imagery can improve Montanans’ understanding of land change and offer valuable insight for the ranchers, farmers, land and resource managers, firefighters, and urban planners.

Montana↗
USGS2010

Water security-National and global issues

Potable or clean freshwater availability is crucial to life and economic, environmental, and social systems. The amount of freshwater is finite and makes up approximately 2.5 percent of all water on the Earth. Freshwater supplies are small and randomly distributed, so water resources can become points of conflict. Freshwater availability depends upon precipitation patterns, changing climate, and whether the source of consumed water comes directly from desalination, precipitation, or surface and (or) groundwater. At local to national levels, difficulties in securing potable water sources increase with growing populations and economies. Available water improves living standards and drives urbanization, which increases average water consumption per capita. Commonly, disruptions in sustainable supplies and distribution of potable water and conflicts over water resources become major security issues for Government officials. Disruptions are often influenced by land use, human population, use patterns, technological advances, environmental impacts, management processes and decisions, transnational boundaries, and so forth.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2010

Methods for estimating the magnitude and frequency of peak streamflows for unregulated streams in Oklahoma

Peak-streamflow regression equations were determined for estimating flows with exceedance probabilities from 50 to 0.2 percent for the state of Oklahoma. These regression equations incorporate basin characteristics to estimate peak-streamflow magnitude and frequency throughout the state by use of a generalized least squares regression analysis. The most statistically significant independent variables required to estimate peak-streamflow magnitude and frequency for unregulated streams in Oklahoma are contributing drainage area, mean-annual precipitation, and main-channel slope. The regression equations are applicable for watershed basins with drainage areas less than 2,510 square miles that are not affected by regulation. The resulting regression equations had a standard model error ranging from 31 to 46 percent. Annual-maximum peak flows observed at 231 streamflow-gaging stations through water year 2008 were used for the regression analysis. Gage peak-streamflow estimates were used from previous work unless 2008 gaging-station data were available, in which new peak-streamflow estimates were calculated. The U.S. Geological Survey StreamStats web application was used to obtain the independent variables required for the peak-streamflow regression equations. Limitations on the use of the regression equations and the reliability of regression estimates for natural unregulated streams are described. Log-Pearson Type III analysis information, basin and climate characteristics, and the peak-streamflow frequency estimates for the 231 gaging stations in and near Oklahoma are listed. Methodologies are presented to estimate peak streamflows at ungaged sites by using estimates from gaging stations on unregulated streams. For ungaged sites on urban streams and streams regulated by small floodwater retarding structures, an adjustment of the statewide regression equations for natural unregulated streams can be used to estimate peak-streamflow magnitude and frequency.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2014

Change in agricultural land use constrains adaptation of national wildlife refuges to climate change

Land-use change around protected areas limits their ability to conserve biodiversity by altering ecological processes such as natural hydrologic and disturbance regimes, facilitating species invasions, and interfering with dispersal of organisms. This paper informs USA National Wildlife Refuge System conservation planning by predicting future land-use change on lands within 25 km distance of 461 refuges in the USA using an econometric model. The model contained two differing policy scenarios, namely a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario and a ‘pro-agriculture’ scenario. Regardless of scenario, by 2051, forest cover and urban land use were predicted to increase around refuges, while the extent of range and pasture was predicted to decrease; cropland use decreased under the business-as-usual scenario, but increased under the pro-agriculture scenario. Increasing agricultural land value under the pro-agriculture scenario slowed an expected increase in forest around refuges, and doubled the rate of range and pasture loss. Intensity of land-use change on lands surrounding refuges differed by regions. Regional differences among scenarios revealed that an understanding of regional and local land-use dynamics and management options was an essential requirement to effectively manage these conserved lands. Such knowledge is particularly important given the predicted need to adapt to a changing global climate.

Environmental Conservation↗
USGS2008

Debris flows and floods in southeastern Arizona from extreme precipitation in July 2006 — Magnitude, frequency, and sediment delivery

From July 31 to August 1, 2006, an unusual set of atmospheric conditions aligned to produce record floods and an unprecedented number of slope failures and debris flows in southeastern Arizona. During the week leading up to the event, an upper-level low-pressure system centered over New Mexico generated widespread and locally heavy rainfall in southeastern Arizona, culminating in a series of strong, mesoscale convective systems that affected the region in the early morning hours of July 31 and August 1. Rainfall from July 27 through 30 provided sufficient antecedent moisture that the storms of July 31 through August 1 resulted in record streamflow flooding in northeastern Pima County and eastern Pinal County. The rainfall caused at least 623 slope failures in four mountain ranges, including more than 30 near Bowie Mountain in the northern Chiracahua Mountains, and 113 at the southern end of the Huachuca Mountains within and adjacent to Coronado National Memorial. In the Santa Catalina Mountains north of Tucson, 435 slope failures spawned debris flows on July 31 that, together with flood runoff, damaged structures and roads, affecting infrastructure within Tucson’s urban boundary. Heavy, localized rainfall in the Galiuro Mountains on August 1, 2006, resulted in at least 45 slope failures and an unknown number of debris flows in Aravaipa Canyon. In the southern Santa Catalina Mountains, the maximum 3-day precipitation measured at a climate station for July 29-31 was 12.04 in., which has a 1,200-year recurrence interval. Other rainfall totals from late July to August 1 in southeastern Arizona also exceeded 1,000-year recurrence intervals. The storms produced floods of record along six watercourses, and these floods had recurrence intervals of 100-500 years. Repeat photography suggests that the spate of slope failures was historically unprecedented, and geologic mapping and cosmogenic dating of ancient debris-flow deposits indicate that debris flows reaching alluvial fans in the Tucson basin are extremely rare events. Although recent watershed changes—particularly the impacts of recent wildland fires—may be important locally, the record number of slope failures and debris flows were related predominantly to extreme precipitation, not other factors such as fire history. The large number of slope failures and debris flows in an area with few such occurrences historically underscores the rarity of this type of meteorological event in southeastern Arizona. Most slope failures appeared to be shallow-seated slope failures of colluvium on steep slopes that caused deep scour of chutes and substantial aggradation of channels downstream. In the southern Santa Catalina Mountains, we estimate that 1.5 million tons of sediment were released from slope failures into the channels of ten drainage basins. Thirty-six percent of this sediment (527,000 tons) is gravel-sized or smaller and is likely to be transported by streamflow out of the mountain drainages and into the drainage network of metropolitan Tucson. This sediment poses a potential flood hazard by reducing conveyance in fixed-section flood control structures along Rillito Creek and its major tributaries, although our estimates suggest that deposition may be small if it is distributed widely along the channel, which is expected. Using the stochastic debris-flow model LAHARZ, we simulated debris-flow transport from slope failures to the apices of alluvial fans flanking the southern Santa Catalina Mountains. Despite considerable uncertainty in applying coefficients developed from worldwide observations to conditions in the southern Santa Catalina Mountains, we predicted the approximate area of depositional zones for several 2006 debris flows, particularly for Soldier Canyon. Better results could be achieved in some canyons if sediment budgets could be developed to account for alternating transport and deposition zones in channels with abrupt expansions and contractions, such as Rattlesnake Canyon.

Arizona↗
USGS2007

Ground-water recharge from small intermittent streams in the western Mojave Desert, California

Population growth has impacted ground-water resources in the western Mojave Desert, where declining water levels suggest that recharge rates have not kept pace with withdrawals. Recharge from the Mojave River, the largest hydrographic feature in the study area, is relatively well characterized. In contrast, recharge from numerous smaller streams that convey runoff from the bounding mountains is poorly characterized. The current study examined four representative streams to assess recharge from these intermittent sources. Hydraulic, thermal, geomorphic, chemical, and isotopic data were used to study recharge processes, from streamflow generation and infiltration to percolation through the unsaturated zone. Ground-water movement away from recharge areas was also assessed. Infiltration in amounts sufficient to have a measurable effect on subsurface temperature profiles did not occur in every year in instrumented study reaches. In addition to streamflow availability, results showed the importance of sediment texture in controlling infiltration and eventual recharge. Infiltration amounts of about 0.7 meters per year were an approximate threshold for the occurrence of ground-water recharge. Estimated travel times through the thick unsaturated zones underlying channels reached several hundred years. Recharging fluxes were influenced by stratigraphic complexity and depositional dynamics. Because of channel meandering, not all water that penetrates beneath the root zone can be assumed to become recharge on active alluvial fans. Away from study washes, elevated chloride concentrations and highly negative water potentials beneath the root zone indicated negligible recharge from direct infiltration of precipitation under current climatic conditions. In upstream portions of washes, generally low subsurface chloride concentrations and near-zero water potentials indicated downward movement of water toward the water table, driven primarily by gravity. Recharging conditions did not extend to the distal ends of all washes. Where urbanization had concentrated spatially distributed runoff into a small number of fixed channels, enhanced infiltration induced recharging conditions, mobilizing accumulated chloride. Estimated amounts of ground-water recharge from the studied reaches were small. Extrapolating on the basis of drainage areas, the estimated aggregate recharge from small intermittent streams is minor compared to recharge from the Mojave River. Recharge is largely controlled by streamflow availability, which primarily reflects precipitation patterns. Precipitation in the Mojave Desert is strongly controlled by topography. Cool moist air masses from the Pacific Ocean are mostly blocked from entering the desert by the high mountains bordering its southern edge. Storms do, however, readily enter the region through Cajon Pass. These storms generate flow in the Mojave River that often reaches Afton Canyon, more than 150 kilometers downstream. The isotopic composition of ground water reflects the localization of recharge beneath the Mojave River. Similar processes occur near San Gorgonio Pass, 75 kilometers southeast from Cajon Pass along the bounding San Andreas Fault.

California↗
USGS2026

Coastal development

As a focal point of global urbanization, the coastal zone faces multiple pressures from human activities, land-sea interactions and natural disasters. Over the past five years, population, communities and infrastructure in coastal zones have consistently grown, alongside gradual economic recovery. Coastal pollution has become more complex owing to climate change and the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, necessitating enhanced monitoring and control measures. Public participation has been diversified but still faces difficulties in awareness-raising, policy strengthening, equity and comprehensiveness. For the coastal zone, integrated management will continue to be needed in order to achieve a balance between economic performance and ecological environment. Climate change will be a key factor to consider in every aspect of coastal zone development. To build inclusive, safe and disaster-resilient communities while reducing negative environmental impacts and achieving a sustainable coastal economy, greater emphasis must be placed on green-grey infrastructure, ecosystem-based approaches, institutional integration and sociocultural aspects. In addition, urgent breakthroughs are needed in areas such as data collection, technology synthesis, integrated land-sea management, transboundary cooperation and policies and technical innovations related to natural and nature-based features and nature-based solutions.

Report↗
USGS2016

An empirical assessment of which inland floods can be managed

Riverine flooding is a significant global issue. Although it is well documented that the influence of landscape structure on floods decreases as flood size increases, studies that define a threshold flood-return period, above which landscape features such as topography, land cover and impoundments can curtail floods, are lacking. Further, the relative influences of natural versus built features on floods is poorly understood. Assumptions about the types of floods that can be managed have considerable implications for the cost-effectiveness of decisions to invest in transforming land cover (e.g., reforestation) and in constructing structures (e.g., storm-water ponds) to control floods. This study defines parameters of floods for which changes in landscape structure can have an impact. We compare nine flood-return periods across 31 watersheds with widely varying topography and land cover in the southeastern United States, using long-term hydrologic records (≥20 years). We also assess the effects of built flow-regulating features (best management practices and artificial water bodies) on selected flood metrics across urban watersheds. We show that landscape features affect magnitude and duration of only those floods with return periods ≤10 years, which suggests that larger floods cannot be managed effectively by manipulating landscape structure. Overall, urban watersheds exhibited larger (270 m 3 /s) but quicker (0.41 days) floods than non-urban watersheds (50 m 3 /s and 1.5 days). However, urban watersheds with more flow-regulating features had lower flood magnitudes (154 m 3 /s), but similar flood durations (0.55 days), compared to urban watersheds with fewer flow-regulating features (360 m 3 /s and 0.23 days). Our analysis provides insight into the magnitude, duration and count of floods that can be curtailed by landscape structure and its management. Our findings are relevant to other areas with similar climate, topography, and land use, and can help ensure that investments in flood management are made wisely after considering the limitations of landscape features to regulate floods.

Journal of Environmental Management↗
USGS2010

Extended abstracts from the Coastal Habitats in Puget Sound (CHIPS) 2006 Workshop

Puget Sound is the second largest estuary in the United States. Its unique geology, climate, and nutrient-rich waters produce and sustain biologically productive coastal habitats. These same natural characteristics also contribute to a high quality of life that has led to a significant growth in human population and associated development. This population growth, and the accompanying rural and urban development, has played a role in degrading Puget Sound ecosystems, including declines in fish and wildlife populations, water-quality issues, and loss and degradation of coastal habitats. In response to these ecosystem declines and the potential for strategic large-scale preservation and restoration, a coalition of local, State, and Federal agencies, including the private sector, Tribes, and local universities, initiated the Puget Sound Nearshore Ecosystem Restoration Project (PSNERP). The Nearshore Science Team (NST) of PSNERP, along with the U.S. Geological Survey, developed a Science Strategy and Research Plan (Gelfenbaum and others, 2006) to help guide science activities associated with nearshore ecosystem restoration. Implementation of the Research Plan includes a call for State and Federal agencies to direct scientific studies to support PSNERP information needs. In addition, the overall Science Strategy promotes greater communication with decision makers and dissemination of scientific results to the broader scientific community. On November 14–16, 2006, the U.S. Geological Survey sponsored an interdisciplinary Coastal Habitats in Puget Sound (CHIPS) Research Workshop at Fort Worden State Park, Port Townsend, Washington. The main goals of the workshop were to coordinate, integrate, and link research on the nearshore of Puget Sound. Presented research focused on three themes: (1) restoration of large river deltas; (2) recovery of the nearshore ecosystem of the Elwha River; and (3) effects of urbanization on nearshore ecosystems. The more than 35 presentations covered a wide range of ongoing inter-disciplinary research, including studies of sediment geochemistry of aquatic environments, sediment budgets, tracking fish pathways, expansion of invasive forams, beach and nearshore sedimentary environments, using influence diagrams as a decision support tool, forage fish, submarine groundwater, and much, much more. The primary focus within these themes was on developing information on the physical, chemical, and biological processes, as well as the human dimensions, associated with the restoration or rehabilitation of the nearshore environment. The workshop was an excellent opportunity for USGS scientists and collaborators who are working on Puget Sound coastal habitats to present their preliminary findings, discuss upcoming research, and to identify opportunities for interdisciplinary collaboration. A compilation of extended abstracts from workshop participants, this proceedings volume serves as a useful reference for attendees of the workshop and for those unable to attend. Taken together, the abstracts in this report provide a view of the current status of USGS multidisciplinary research on Puget Sound coastal habitats.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2015

Areas contributing recharge to production wells and effects of climate change on the groundwater system in the Chipuxet River and Chickasheen Brook Basins, Rhode Island

The Chipuxet River and Chickasheen Brook Basins in southern Rhode Island are an important water resource for public and domestic supply, irrigation, recreation, and aquatic habitat. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Rhode Island Department of Health, began a study in 2012 as part of an effort to protect the source of water to six large-capacity production wells that supply drinking water and to increase understanding of how climate change might affect the water resources in the basins. Soil-water-balance and groundwater-flow models were developed to delineate the areas contributing recharge to the wells and to quantify the hydrologic response to climate change. Surficial deposits of glacial origin ranging from a few feet to more than 200 feet thick overlie bedrock in the 24.4-square mile study area. These deposits comprise a complex and productive aquifer system. Simulated areas contributing recharge to the production wells covered a total area of 0.63 square miles for average well withdrawal rates from 2007 through 2011 (total rate of 583 gallons per minute). Simulated areas contributing recharge for the maximum well pumping capacities (total rate of 3,700 gallons per minute) covered a total area of 2.55 square miles. Most simulated areas contributing recharge extend upgradient of the wells to morainal and upland till deposits and to groundwater divides. Some simulated areas contributing recharge include small, isolated areas remote from the wells. Relatively short groundwater traveltimes from recharging locations to discharging wells indicated that the wells are vulnerable to contamination from land-surface activities; median traveltimes ranged from 3.5 to 8.6 years for the production wells examined, and 57 to 91 percent of the traveltimes were 10 years or less. Land cover in the areas contributing recharge includes a substantial amount of urban and agriculture land use for five wells adjacent to the Chipuxet River; for one well adjacent to a tributary stream, land use is less developed. The calibrated groundwater-flow model provided a single, best representation of the areas contributing recharge to a production well. The parameter variance-covariance matrix from model calibration was used to create parameter sets that reflect the uncertainty of the parameter estimates and the correlation among parameters to evaluate the uncertainty associated with the predicted contributing areas to the wells. A Monte Carlo analysis led to contributing areas expressed as a probability distribution that differed from a single deterministic contributing area. Because of the effects of parameter uncertainty, the size of the probabilistic contributing areas for both average and maximum pumping rates was larger than the size of the deterministic contributing areas for the wells. Thus, some areas not in the deterministic contributing area might actually be in the contributing area, including additional areas of urban and agricultural land use that has the potential to contaminate groundwater. Additional areas that might be in the contributing area included recharge originating near the pumping wells that have relatively short groundwater-flow paths and traveltimes. At the maximum pumping rates, areas associated with low probabilities extended long distances along groundwater divides in the uplands remote from the wells. Climate projections for the Chipuxet River and Chickasheen Brook Basins from downscaled output from general circulation models indicate that mean annual temperature might increase by 4.7 degrees Fahrenheit and 8.0 degrees Fahrenheit by the late 21st century (2070–99) compared with the late 20th century (1970–99) under scenarios of lower and higher emissions of greenhouse gases, respectively. By the late 21st century, winter and spring precipitation is projected to increase by 12 to 17 percent, summer precipitation to increase by about the same as mean annual precipitation (8 percent), and fall precipitation to decrease by 5 percent for both emission scenarios compared with the late 20th century. Soil-water-balance simulations indicate that, although precipitation is expected to increase in three seasons, only in winter do precipitation increases exceed actual evapotranspiration increases. Recharge is projected to decrease in fall and generally change little in spring and summer. By the late 21st century, winter recharge is expected to increase by 13 percent for the lower emissions scenario and by 15 percent for the higher emissions scenario. In fall, recharge is projected to diminish by 13 percent for the lower emissions scenario and by 24 percent for the higher emissions scenario. Although recharge is projected to change seasonally in the 21st century, mean annual recharge changes minimally. Soil moisture is projected to decrease in the 21st century from spring through fall because of increases in potential evapotranspiration, and in fall because of decreases in precipitation in addition to increases in potential evapotranspiration. By the late 21st century, soil moisture for the lower emissions scenario is expected to decrease by 11 percent in summer and 15 percent in fall, and for the higher emissions scenario, decrease by 23 percent for both seasons. These decreases in soil moisture during the growing season might have implications for agriculture in the study area. Predicted changes in the magnitude and seasonal distribution of recharge in the 21st century increase simulated base flows and groundwater levels in the winter months for both emission scenarios, but because of less recharge in the fall and less or about the same recharge in the preceding months of spring and summer, base flows and groundwater levels in the fall months decrease for both emission scenarios. October has the largest base flow and groundwater level decreases. By the late 21st century, base flows at the Chipuxet River in October are projected to decrease by 9 percent for the lower emissions scenario and 18 percent for the higher emissions scenario. For a headwater stream in the upland till with shorter groundwater-flow paths and lower storage properties in its drainage area, base flows in October are projected to diminish by 28 percent and 42 percent for the lower and higher emissions scenarios by the late 21st century. Groundwater level changes in the uplands show substantial decreases in fall, but because of the large storage capacity of stratified deposits, water levels change minimally in the valley. By the late 21st century, water levels in large areas of upland till deposits in October are projected to decrease by up to 2 feet for the lower emissions scenario, whereas large areas decrease by up to 5 feet, with small areas with decreases of as much as 10 feet, for the higher emissions scenario. For both emission scenarios, additional areas of till go dry in fall compared with the late 20th century. Thus projected changes in recharge in the 21st century might extend low flows and low water levels for the year later in fall and there might be more intermittent headwater streams compared with the late 20th century with corresponding implications to aquatic habitat. Finally, the size and location of the simulated areas contributing recharge to the production wells are minimally affected by climate change because mean annual recharge, which is used to determine the contributing areas to the production wells, is projected to change little in the 21st century.

Rhode Island↗
USGS2017

Human interactions with sirenians (manatees and dugongs)

There are three extant sirenian species of the Trichechidae family and one living Dugongidae family member. Given their close ties to coastal and often urbanized habitats, sirenians are exposed to many types of anthropogenic activities that result in challenges to their well-being, poor health, and even death. In the wild, they are exposed to direct and indirect local pressures as well as subject to large-scale stressors such as global climate change acting on regions or entire genetic stocks. In captivity, they are subject to husbandry and management practices based on our collective knowledge, or in some cases lack thereof, of their needs and welfare. It is therefore reasonable to consider that their current imperiled status is very closely linked to our actions. In this chapter, we identify and define human interactions that may impact dugongs and manatees, including hunting, fisheries, boat interactions, negative interactions with man-made structures, disease and contaminants, and global climate change. We examine techniques used to investigate these impacts and the influence of sirenian biology and of changing human behaviors on potential outcomes. We examine how this differs for dugongs and manatees in the wild and for those held in captivity. Finally, we provide possible mitigation strategies and ways to assess the efforts we are making to improve the welfare of individuals and to conserve these species. This chapter identifies how the welfare of these species is intrinsically linked to the human interactions these animals experience, and how the nature of these interactions has changed with societal shifts. We proffer suggested ways to minimize negative impacts. Current knowledge should be used to minimize negative human interactions and impacts, to promote positive impacts, and to protect these animals for the future.

Book chapter↗
USGS2026

Long-term predictive modeling of stream condition suggests wide-spread changes within the Chesapeake Bay Watershed, USA

Stream ecosystems worldwide face ongoing degradation, underscoring the urgent need for conservation and restoration. Regional analyses of stream condition have been limited by sparse spatial and temporal data, particularly at long time scales. To address this gap, we used observed data to predict annual biological condition for 360,893 small, nontidal stream reaches in the Chesapeake Bay watershed from 1985 to 2023 (39 years). Predictions were generated using random forest models trained on extensive benthic macroinvertebrate data sets and predictors including natural landscape features, land cover, and climate variables. Four biological metrics were assessed: percent Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera excluding Hydropsychidae (EPT-H), percent Ephemeroptera, percent clinger functional group, and the Index of Biological Integrity (IBI). Results revealed degraded biological conditions near Washington, D.C. and Baltimore, Maryland, with declining trends across all metrics in these urbanized areas. Spatial heterogeneity was evident: IBI and clinger percentages increased in many southern streams but declined in northern streams, whereas EPT-H and Ephemeroptera decreased watershed wide except in the Southeastern Plains bioregion. By 2021, watershed wide IBI improvements were predicted for 0.9–1.1% of stream length, falling short of management goals. This study demonstrates the utility of long-term data and machine learning for predicting stream condition, identifying key stressors, and guiding restoration and conservation site selection.

Delaware, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Virgin↗
USGS2012

Groundwater quality in Coachella Valley, California

Groundwater provides more than 40 percent of California’s drinking water. To protect this vital resource, the State of California created the Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Program. The Priority Basin Project of the GAMA Program provides a comprehensive assessment of the State’s groundwater quality and increases public access to groundwater-quality information. Coachella Valley is one of the study areas being evaluated. The Coachella study area is approximately 820 square miles (2,124 square kilometers) and includes the Coachella Valley groundwater basin (California Department of Water Resources, 2003). Coachella Valley has an arid climate, with average annual rainfall of about 6 inches (15 centimeters). The runoff from the surrounding mountains drains to rivers that flow east and south out of the study area to the Salton Sea. Land use in the study area is approximately 67 percent (%) natural, 21% agricultural, and 12% urban. The primary natural land cover is shrubland. The largest urban areas are the cities of Indio and Palm Springs (2010 populations of 76,000 and 44,000, respectively). Groundwater in this basin is used for public and domestic water supply and for irrigation. The main water-bearing units are gravel, sand, silt, and clay derived from surrounding mountains. The primary aquifers in Coachella Valley are defined as those parts of the aquifers corresponding to the perforated intervals of wells listed in the California Department of Public Health database. Public-supply wells in Coachella Valley are completed to depths between 490 and 900 feet (149 to 274 meters), consist of solid casing from the land surface to a depth of 260 to 510 feet (79 to 155 meters), and are screened or perforated below the solid casing. Recharge to the groundwater system is primarily runoff from the surrounding mountains, and by direct infiltration of irrigation. The primary sources of discharge are pumping wells, evapotranspiration, and underflow to the Salton Sea and Imperial Valley areas.

California↗
USGS2023

Flood-frequency analysis in the Midwest: Addressing potential nonstationarity of annual peak-flow records

Flood-frequency analysis is essential in numerous water-resource management applications, including critical structure design and flood-plain mapping. A basic assumption within Bulletin 17C [1], the standardized guidelines for conducting flood-frequency analysis, is that basins without major hydrologic alterations, such as regulation or urbanization, exhibit stationary statistical properties of the distribution of annual peak streamflow. That is, the mean, variance, and skew are constant over time and the peak-flow record is a representative sample of the population of future floods [1]. In recent decades, better understanding of long-term climatic persistence and concerns about climate and land-use change have caused the assumption of stationarity in peak-flow records to be reexamined [2, 3, 4, 5]. Under nonstationary conditions, the long-term distributional properties (mean, variance, and/or skew) of peak-flow series change one or more times, either gradually or abruptly. Nonstationarities may be attributed to one source, but are often a result of a mixture of drivers, making detection and attribution of nonstationarities challenging [6, 7, 8]. Failure to incorporate observed trends and abrupt changes into flood-frequency analysis may result in a poor representation of the true flood risk. Bulletin 17C currently offers no guidance on how to account for nonstationarities when estimating floods and acknowledges the benefit additional flood frequency studies that incorporate changing climate or basin characteristics into the analysis would provide[1].

Midwest↗
USGS2022

Connecting diverse disciplines to improve understanding of surface water-groundwater interactions

Laura K. Lautz is a premier mentor, collaborator, and researcher at the intersection of natural hydrologic systems and humans. Her research has shifted the paradigm around measuring and understanding the impacts of surface water and groundwater interactions across spatial and temporal scales. She has done this by testing and refining new methods and by collaborating with, training, supporting, and mentoring diverse scientists. Here, we review her research across five themes, summarizing the prior status of the field, what Lautz contributed, as well as new directions in the field inspired by her work. Lautz’s research expanded our understanding of the impacts of stream restoration on surface water-groundwater interactions, where she tested new field methods and showed that restoration structures increase hyporheic exchange, locally altering biogeochemical function of the streambed. She refined novel methods for measuring surface water-groundwater exchanges and worked to make these methods easily accessible through freely available software. Her research group greatly expanded the use of heat as a quantitative tracer of hydrologic processes via the well-used VFLUX and HFLUX programs. Her research evaluated the impacts of surface water-groundwater interactions in urban streams, showing the substantial fluxes of nutrients and chloride that can move through those exchanges and the potential for groundwater to help buffer contamination. To assess groundwater impacts on streamflow below tropical glaciers, she used a wide range of field methods to reveal the sensitivity of these systems to climate change. Finally, she built tools to quantify natural brine contamination of drinking water wells in areas that may later be subject to high-volume hydraulic fracturing, creating a needed ‘pre-fracking’ dataset. Through this process, she identified multiple sources of salinity that are already reaching wells in these systems. Overall, this research has been done with a focus on mentoring and training the next generation of hydrologists, including work to specifically train for careers beyond academia, and facilitating early career scientists to realize their innate potentials. With former trainees in careers across industry, government, and academia, Dr. Laura K. Lautz is now working to build cross-disciplinary research at even larger scales, across federal research units, guaranteeing that an even larger impact on hydrology is still to come.

Journal of Hydrology X↗
USGS2024

Estimated reductions in phosphorus loads from removal of leaf litter in the Lake Champlain drainage area, Vermont

Excess nutrient loading and other factors are driving eutrophication and other negative effects on water-quality conditions in Lake Champlain and other receiving waters in Vermont. Two common best management practices were evaluated to determine how these practices can be optimized by targeting maintenance and operation to align better with seasonally driven needs, specifically to help municipalities remove a greater proportion of seasonal leaves and organic debris, reduce nutrient loading, and achieve water-quality goals. To characterize solid materials typically removed by the municipal BMPs of catch-basin (CB) cleaning and street cleaning (SC), subsamples of CB and SC materials were collected each month from nine participating municipalities in central and northwestern Vermont between September 2017 and November 2018. Monthly and seasonal composites of CB and SC samples were created from the subsamples of available materials from all municipalities. Samples were analyzed for concentrations of total organic carbon, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, and total phosphorus (P), and separated into three particle-size fractions. Distribution of particle-size fractions was similar between CB and SC as both practices generally collect the coarser fraction of solid materials (greater than 125 micrometers in diameter). In the fall, however, the range of the coarser fraction of materials increased. This is attributed to the ability of SC to collect leaves and other light organic materials that commonly pass through a CB system designed to trap heavier materials. Total organic carbon, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, and total P concentrations were highest in the catch-basin samples in the fall of 2017, and concentrations in the SC samples were highest in the fall of 2018. The collection of fewer samples in 2017 may account for some of the variability between fall 2017 and fall 2018 results. A subset of SC samples collected from piles representing specific street-cleaning routes in September and November 2018 were also analyzed. Materials collected in November were dominated by leaves, and the concentrations of the analyzed species of carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus in some samples were more than double those in samples collected on the same street-cleaning routes in September. The Vermont Department of Environmental Conservation and the University of Vermont developed estimates of load-reduction credits for CB and SC practices based on a policy developed by the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources that determined the potential for credits associated with leaf-removal activities. This process also considered BMPs that were initiated during the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Lake Champlain Basin Total Maximum Daily Load monitoring period (2000 to 2009) and adapted the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources policies to apply to existing SC routes in the cooperating Vermont municipalities that possessed at least 17 percent tree cover. This exercise demonstrated that applying the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources policy to existing street-cleaning routes possessing 17 percent or more tree cover would result in reductions in total P loads up to 65 percent of mandated target reductions, and about a 25 percent reduction on average. Continuous simulations of stormwater runoff volume, and of loads of suspended sediments and total P, also were created for Englesby Brook Basin, an urbanized basin in Burlington and South Burlington that drains to Lake Champlain. Although the basin is more developed than the average of the nine cooperating municipalities, streamflow and P loading data collected by the U.S. Geological Survey were available to evaluate model performance. Simulations based on a year of average climatic conditions projected potential small reductions in total P of 0.08 to 0.10 percent as a result of CB cleaning and SC practices. Simulated weekly SC practices, however, reduced street-solid loads by as much as 7 percent. When the proportion of total P seen in fall SC materials collected in Vermont was applied to these simulated street-solid loads, estimated reductions of total P were about 29 percent. The combination of analytical results, estimated load-reduction credits, and simulated reductions indicate that targeted increases of SC activities to reduce leaf loading in the fall have the potential to reduce loading to receiving waters and could help regulated communities meet their water-quality goals.

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