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USGS2023

Knowledge gaps, uncertainties, and opportunities regarding the response of the Chesapeake Bay estuary to restoration efforts

As part of the Chesapeake Bay Program's (CBP's) Science and Technical Advisory Committee (STAC) initiative "Achieving Water Quality Goals in the Chesapeake Bay: An Evaluation of System Response", an Estuary Working Group was formed to generate an assessment of scientific knowledge gaps, uncertainties, and recent ecosystem changes to consider in light of CBP's impending goal of full implementation of management measures (Total Maximum Daily Load [TMDL] agreements and associated necessary stakeholder actions) that are being finalized and designed to achieve living resource-based nutrient targets by 2025. This document summarizes aspects of the knowledge gaps, uncertainties, and associated needs and opportunities relating to our understanding of how the Chesapeake Bay estuary has responded to previously implemented management plans, and what features of the ecosystem may slow or enhance its response to future management actions in the face of expected continuations of climatic change.

Chesapeake Bay estuary↗

USGS2020

Changing nitrogen inputs to the northern San Francisco Estuary: Potential ecosystem responses and opportunities for investigation

Anthropogenic activities have resulted in elevated ambient nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) concentrations in many regions of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta and Suisun Bay (northern San Francisco Estuary, (nSFE). The Sacramento Regional wastewater treatment plant (SRWTP WWTP) currently acts as the largest N point source to the system, discharging 13,000-15,000 kg/d of ammonium-N (NH4) near the nSFE’s northeastern boundary. By end of 2021, SRWTP will complete major upgrades that will reduce its effluent dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) loads by >65% and release the remaining DIN as predominantly nitrate (NO3). This major change in nitrogen inputs provides a unique opportunity to study ecosystem-scale responses to an altered nutrient regime. While, in general, the nSFE has not experienced some classic symptoms of nutrient over-enrichment typical in other estuaries—e.g., large phytoplankton blooms and hypoxia—other concerning nutrient- related impacts have been hypothesized, including: occurrence of harmful algal blooms (HABs) and the production of cyanotoxins; excessive growth of invasive aquatic vegetation; and declines in the abundance and nutritional quality of phytoplankton. These impacts have repercussions for the system’s food web, habitat quality, and the way we manage for transportation, recreation, water conveyance, and drinking water quality. This report develops and applies a framework for i) identifying and examining ecosystem response scenarios to the forthcoming decreased N loads; and ii) identifying opportunities, and constraints or considerations, for investigating those responses, including key data needs or knowledge gaps. Through applying this framework, we identify a set of plausible response scenarios, and evaluate the feasibility of studying or observing those responses along with key study considerations and data and knowledge gaps.

California↗

USGS2011

Application of a weighted-averaging method for determining paleosalinity: a tool for restoration of south Florida's estuaries

A molluscan analogue dataset is presented in conjunction with a weighted-averaging technique as a tool for estimating past salinity patterns in south Florida’s estuaries and developing targets for restoration based on these reconstructions. The method, here referred to as cumulative weighted percent (CWP), was tested using modern surficial samples collected in Florida Bay from sites located near fixed water monitoring stations that record salinity. The results were calibrated using species weighting factors derived from examining species occurrence patterns. A comparison of the resulting calibrated species-weighted CWP (SW-CWP) to the observed salinity at the water monitoring stations averaged over a 3-year time period indicates, on average, the SW-CWP comes within less than two salinity units of estimating the observed salinity. The SW-CWP reconstructions were conducted on a core from near the mouth of Taylor Slough to illustrate the application of the method.

Florida↗

USGS2012

Suspended-sediment flux and retention in a backwater tidal slough complex near the landward boundary of an estuary

Backwater tidal sloughs are commonly found at the landward boundary of estuaries. The Cache Slough complex is a backwater tidal region within the Upper Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta that includes two features that are relevant for resource managers: (1) relatively high abundance of the endangered fish, delta smelt ( Hypomesus transpacificus ), which prefers turbid water and (2) a recently flooded shallow island, Liberty Island, that is a prototype for habitat restoration. We characterized the turbidity around Liberty Island by measuring suspended-sediment flux at four locations from July 2008 through December 2010. An estuarine turbidity maximum in the backwater Cache Slough complex is created by tidal asymmetry, a limited tidal excursion, and wind-wave resuspension. During the study, there was a net export of sediment, though sediment accumulates within the region from landward tidal transport during the dry season. Sediment is continually resuspended by both wind waves and flood tide currents. The suspended-sediment mass oscillates within the region until winter freshwater flow pulses flush it seaward. The hydrodynamic characteristics within the backwater region such as low freshwater flow during the dry season, flood tide dominance, and a limited tidal excursion favor sediment retention.

California↗

USGS2013

Wetland Accretion Rate Model of Ecosystem Resilience (WARMER) and its application to habitat sustainability for endangered species in the San Francisco Estuary

Salt marsh faunas are constrained by specific habitat requirements for marsh elevation relative to sea level and tidal range. As sea level rises, changes in relative elevation of the marsh plain will have differing impacts on the availability of habitat for marsh obligate species. The Wetland Accretion Rate Model for Ecosystem Resilience (WARMER) is a 1-D model of elevation that incorporates both biological and physical processes of vertical marsh accretion. Here, we use WARMER to evaluate changes in marsh surface elevation and the impact of these elevation changes on marsh habitat for specific species of concern. Model results were compared to elevation-based habitat criteria developed for marsh vegetation, the endangered California clapper rail (Rallus longirostris obsoletus), and the endangered salt marsh harvest mouse (Reithrodontomys raviventris) to determine the response of marsh habitat for each species to predicted >1-m sea-level rise by 2100. Feedback between vertical accretion mechanisms and elevation reduced the effect of initial elevation in the modeled scenarios. Elevation decreased nonlinearly with larger changes in elevation during the latter half of the century when the rate of sea-level rise increased. Model scenarios indicated that changes in elevation will degrade habitat quality within salt marshes in the San Francisco Estuary, and degradation will accelerate in the latter half of the century as the rate of sea-level rise accelerates. A sensitivity analysis of the model results showed that inorganic sediment accumulation and the rate of sea-level rise had the greatest influence over salt marsh sustainability.

California↗

USGS2015

Delta smelt habitat in the San Francisco Estuary: A reply to Manly, Fullerton, Hendrix, and Burnham’s “Comments on Feyrer et al. Modeling the effects of future outflow on the abiotic habitat of an imperiled estuarine fish"

Manly et al. (2015) commented on the approach we (Feyrer et al. 2011) used to calculate an index of the abiotic habitat of delta smelt Hypomesus transpacificus. The delta smelt is an annual fish species endemic to the San Francisco Estuary (SFE) in California, USA. Conserving the delta smelt population while providing reliability to California’s water supply with water diverted from the SFE ecosystem is a major management and policy issue. Feyrer et al. (2011) evaluated historic and projected future abiotic habitat conditions for delta smelt. Manly et al. (2015) specifically commented regarding the following: (1) use of an independent abundance estimate, (2) spatial bias in the habitat index, and (3) application of the habitat index to future climate change projections. Here, we provide our reply to these three topics. While we agree that some of the concepts raised by Manly et al. (2015) have the potential to improve habitat assessments and their application to climate change scenarios as knowledge is gained, we note that the Feyrer et al. (2011) delta smelt habitat index is essentially identical to one reconstructed using Manly et al.’s (2015) preferred approach (their model 8), as shown here in Fig. 1.

Estuaries and Coasts↗

USGS2017

Sampling uncharted waters: Examining rearing habitat of larval Longfin Smelt (Spirinchus thaleichthys) in the upper San Francisco Estuary

The southern-most reproducing Longfin Smelt population occurs in the San Francisco Estuary, California, USA. Long-term monitoring of estuarine habitat for this species has generally only considered deep channels, with little known of the role shallow waters play in supporting their early life stage. To address the need for focused research on shallow-water habitat, a targeted study of Longfin Smelt larvae in littoral habitat was conducted to identify potential rearing habitats during 2013 and 2014. Our study objectives were to (1) determine if larval densities vary between littoral habitats (tidal slough vs. open-water shoal), (2) determine how larval densities in littoral habitats vary with physicochemical and biological attributes, (3) determine if larval densities vary between littoral habitats and long-term monitoring channel collections, and (4) determine what factors predict larval rearing distributions from the long-term monitoring channel collections. Larval densities did not vary between littoral habitats but they did vary between years. Water temperature, salinity, and chlorophyll a were found important in predicting larval densities in littoral habitats. Larval densities do not vary between littoral and channel surveys; however, the analysis based on channel data suggests that Longfin Smelt are hatching and rearing in a much broader region and under higher salinities (∼2–12 psu) than previously recognized. Results of this study indicate that conservation efforts should consider how freshwater flow, habitat, climate, and food webs interact as mechanisms that influence Longfin Smelt recruitment in estuarine environments.

California↗

USGS2020

Food web fuel differs across habitats and seasons of a tidal freshwater estuary

Estuarine food webs are fueled by multiple different primary producers. However, identifying the relative importance of each producer to consumers is difficult, particularly for fishes that utilize multiple food sources due to both their mobility and their generally high trophic levels. Previous studies have documented broad spatial differences in the importance of primary producers to fishes within the Upper San Francisco Estuary, California, including separation between pelagic and littoral food webs. In this study, we evaluated the importance of primary producers to adult fishes in three closely spaced subregions that represented disparate habitat types (a tidal wetland channel, a turbid backwater channel, and a deep open-water channel), each a potential outcome of local restoration projects. Using stable isotope analysis coupled with a Bayesian mixing model, we identified significant differences in primary-producer contribution to fishes and invertebrates across habitats and seasons, especially in the relative contribution of submersed aquatic vegetation and phytoplankton. Most fishes utilized multiple primary producers and showed little segregation between pelagic and littoral food webs among habitats. Availability of primary producers differs seasonally and across multiple spatial scales, helping to buffer environmental variability and thus enhancing food web resilience. Ecosystem restoration may improve with emphasis on restoring a wide variety of primary producers to support consumers.

California↗

USGS2022

Can coastal habitats rise to the challenge? Resilience of estuarine habitats, carbon accumulation, and economic value to sea-level rise in a Puget Sound estuary

Sea-level rise (SLR) and obstructions to sediment delivery pose challenges to the persistence of estuarine habitats and the ecosystem services they provide. Restoration actions and sediment management strategies may help mitigate such challenges by encouraging the vertical accretion of sediment in and horizontal migration of tidal forests and marshes. We used a process-based soil accretion model (Coastal Wetland Equilibrium Model) combined with a habitat classification model (MOSAICS) to estimate the effects of SLR, suspended sediment, and inland habitat migration on estuarine habitats, soil carbon accumulation, and economic value of climate change mitigation of carbon accumulation (social cost of carbon dioxide) in a macrotidal estuary in the northwest USA over 100 years (2011 to 2110). Under present-day sediment levels, we projected that after 100 years, most high salt marsh would remain with < 100 cm SLR, but substantial area converted to transitional (low) salt marsh and mudflat with ≥ 100 cm SLR. Increasing sediment availability increased the projected resilience of transitional salt marsh to SLR but did not prevent declines in high marsh area. Projected total carbon accumulation plateaued or declined with ≥ 100 cm SLR, yet the economic value of carbon accumulation continued to rise over time, suggesting that the value of this ecosystem service was resilient to SLR. Doubling or tripling sediment availability increased projected carbon accumulation up to 7.69 and 14.2 kg m −2 and increased total economic value up to $373,000 and $710,000, respectively. Allowing marsh migration supported conversion of upland to freshwater marsh, with slight increases in carbon accumulation. These results inform climate adaptation planning for wetland managers seeking to understand the resilience of estuarine habitats and ecosystem services to SLR under multiple management strategies.

Washington↗

USGS2025

Survival, travel time, and use of migration routes by juvenile steelhead in a modified river estuary

Greater understanding of the survival, travel time, and spatial distribution of juvenile salmonids among migration routes between their natal streams and the ocean is critical to the recovery of these threatened species. In the Sacramento–San Joaquin River Delta (Delta), a highly modified estuary in central California, USA, there is a critical need to evaluate how water management (e.g., water pumping) and environmental factors (e.g., water flow) impact these populations. While management actions can affect some environmental variables in the Delta, only recently have studies begun to uncover associations between these variables and key demographic parameters. In this study, we examine the effects of freshwater flows, water exports, tidal environment, and a temporary barrier on juvenile steelhead ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) survival, travel times, and migration routing using a multiyear acoustic telemetry dataset and recent advancements in Bayesian multistate mark-recapture modeling. We found that no single covariate explained variation in juvenile steelhead population dynamics across the entire Delta, but that separate regions within the Delta showed association with specific environmental factors.

California↗

USGS2003

Potential for increased mercury accumulation in the estuary food web

Present concentrations of mercury in large portions of San Francisco Bay (Bay), the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (Delta), and the Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers are high enough to warrant concern for the health of humans and wildlife. Large scale tidal wetland restoration is currently under consideration as a means of increasing populations of fish species of concern. Tidal wetland restoration activities may lead to increased concentrations of mercury in the estuarine food web and exacerbate the existing mercury problem. This paper evaluates our present ability to predict the local and regional effects of restoration actions on mercury accumulation in aquatic food webs. A sport fish consumption advisory is in place for the Bay, and an advisory is under consideration for the Delta and lower Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers. Mercury concentrations in eggs of several water bird species from the Bay have exceeded the lowest observed effect level. A variety of mercury sources, largely related to historic mercury and gold mining, is present in the watershed and has created a spatially heterogeneous distribution of mercury in the Bay-Delta Estuary. Mercury exists in the environment in a variety of forms and has a complex biogeochemical cycle. The most hazardous form, methylmercury, is produced at a relatively high rate in wetlands and newly flooded aquatic habitats. It is likely that distinct spatial variation on multiple spatial scales exists in net methylmercury production in Bay-Delta tidal wetlands, including variation within each tidal wetland, among tidal wetlands in the same region, and among tidal wetlands in different regions. Understanding this spatial variation and its underlying causes will allow environmental managers to minimize the negative effects of mercury bioaccumulation as a result of restoration activities. Actions needed to reduce the uncertainty associated with this issue include a long term, multifaceted research effort, long term monitoring on local and regional scales, and careful evaluation of individual restoration projects with regard to potential increase of food web mercury.

California↗

USGS2016

Linking hydrodynamic complexity to delta smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus) distribution in the San Francisco Estuary, USA

Long-term fish sampling data from the San Francisco Estuary were combined with detailed three dimensional hydrodynamic modeling to investigate the relationship between historical fish catch and hydrodynamic complexity. Delta Smelt catch data at 45 stations from the Fall Midwater Trawl (FMWT) survey in the vicinity of Suisun Bay were used to develop a quantitative catch-based station index. This index was used to rank stations based on historical Delta Smelt catch. The correlations between historical Delta Smelt catch and 35 quantitative metrics of environmental complexity were evaluated at each station. Eight metrics of environmental conditions were derived from FMWT data and 27 metrics were derived from model predictions at each FMWT station. To relate the station index to conceptual models of Delta Smelt habitat, the metrics were used to predict the station ranking based on the quantified environmental conditions. Salinity, current speed, and turbidity metrics were used to predict the relative ranking of each station for Delta Smelt catch. Including a measure of the current speed at each station improved predictions of the historical ranking for Delta Smelt catch relative to similar predictions made using only salinity and turbidity. Current speed was also found to be a better predictor of historical Delta Smelt catch than water depth. The quantitative approach developed using the FMWT data was validated using the Delta Smelt catch data from the San Francisco Bay Study. Complexity metrics in Suisun Bay were-evaluated during 2010 and 2011. This analysis indicated that a key to historical Delta Smelt catch is the overlap of low salinity, low maximum velocity, and low Secchi depth regions. This overlap occurred in Suisun Bay during 2011, and may have contributed to higher Delta Smelt abundance in 2011 than in 2010 when the favorable ranges of the metrics did not overlap in Suisun Bay.

California↗

USGS2016

Delta smelt: Life history and decline of a once abundant species in the San Francisco Estuary

This paper reviews what has been learned about Delta Smelt and its status since the publication of The State of Bay-Delta Science, 2008 (Healey et al. 2008). The Delta Smelt is endemic to the upper San Francisco Estuary. Much of its historic habitat is no longer available and remaining habitat is increasingly unable to sustain the population. As a listed species living in the central node of California’s water supply system, Delta Smelt has been the focus of a large research effort to understand causes of decline and identify ways to recover the species. Since 2008, a remarkable record of innovative research on Delta Smelt has been achieved, which is summarized here. Unfortunately, research has not prevented the smelt’s continued decline, which is the result of multiple, interacting factors. A major driver of decline is change to the Delta ecosystem from water exports, resulting in reduced outflows and high levels of entrainment in the large pumps of the South Delta. Invasions of alien species, encouraged by environmental change, have also played a contributing role in the decline. Severe drought effects have pushed Delta Smelt to record low levels in 2014–2015. The rapid decline of the species and failure of recovery efforts demonstrate an inability to manage the Delta for the “co-equal goals” of maintaining a healthy ecosystem and providing a reliable water supply for Californians. Diverse and substantial management actions are needed to preserve Delta Smelt.

California↗

USGS2018

An evaluation of three fish surveys in the San Francisco Estuary, 1995–2015

Resource managers rely on long-term monitoring surveys conducted in the San Francisco Estuary to evaluate the status and trends of resident fish populations in this important region. These surveys are potentially confounded because of the incomplete detection of individuals and species, the magnitude of which is often related to the same factors that affect fish populations. We used multistate occupancy estimators to evaluate the distribution, abundance, and detection probability of four fish species collected during 1995–2015 with three long-term surveys. Detection probabilities varied positively with fish abundance and negatively with Secchi depth. Detection varied among species and was greatest for the 20-mm Survey and least for the midwater trawl used for the midwater trawl used in the San Francisco Bay Study. Incomplete detection resulted in underestimates of occupancy and abundance across species and surveys and were greatest for the Bay Study. However, trends in occupancy and abundance of the study period appeared to be unbiased. Fish occupancy and abundance were generally related to salinity or specific conductance, day-of-the year, and water temperature, but the nature of the relations varied among surveys and species. There also was strong spatial and temporal dependence in species-specific occupancy and abundance that changed through time and were unrelated to the covariates considered. Our results suggest that managers consider incorporating methods for estimating detection and adjusting data to ensure data quality. Additionally, the strong spatio-temporal patterns in the monitoring data suggest that existing protocols may need to be modified to ensure that data and inferences reflect system-wide changes rather than changes at a specific set of non-randomly selected locations.

California↗

USGS2020

Use of the smeltCam as an efficient fish sampling alternative within the San Francisco Estuary

Resource managers often rely on long-term monitoring surveys to detect trends in biological data. However, no survey gear is 100% efficient, and many sources of bias can be responsible for detecting or not detecting biological trends. The SmeltCam is an imaging apparatus developed as a potential sampling alternative to long-term trawling gear surveys within the San Francisco Estuary, California, to reduce handling stress on sensitive species like the Delta Smelt ( Hypomesus transpacificus ). Although believed to be a reliable alternative to closed cod-end trawling surveys, no formal test of sampling efficiency has been implemented using the SmeltCam. We used a paired deployment of the SmeltCam and a conventional closed cod-end trawl within the Napa River and San Pablo Bay, a Bayesian binomial N -mixture model, and data simulations to determine the sampling efficiency of both deployed gear types to capture a Delta Smelt surrogate (Northern Anchovy, Engraulis mordax ) and to test potential bias in our modeling framework. We found that retention efficiency—a component of detection efficiency that estimates the probability a fish is retained by the gear, conditional on gear contact—was slightly higher using the SmeltCam (mean = 0.58) than the conventional trawl (mean = 0.47, Probability SmeltCam retention efficiency > trawl retention efficiency = 94%). We also found turbidity did not affect the SmeltCam’s retention efficiency, although total fish density during an individual tow improved the trawl’s retention efficiency. Simulations also showed the binomial model was accurate when model assumptions were met. Collectively, our results suggest the SmeltCam to be a reliable alternative to sampling with conventional trawling gear, but future tests are needed to confirm whether the SmeltCam is as reliable when applied to taxa other than Northern Anchovy over a greater range of conditions.

California↗

USGS2022

Gill-net selectivity for fifteen fish species of the upper San Francisco Estuary

Gill-net size selectivity for 15 fish species occurring in the upper San Francisco Estuary was estimated from a data set compiled from multiple studies which together contained 7,096 individual fish observations from 882 gill net sets. The gill nets considered in this study closely resembled the American Fisheries Society’s recommended standardized experimental gill nets for sampling inland waters. Relationships between gill-net mesh sizes and the sizes for each fish species retained in them were estimated indirectly using generalized linear modeling and maximum likelihood. Selectivity curves are provided for each species to inform researchers about population characteristics of fishes sampled with similar gill nets.

California↗

USGS2022

Habitat-specific foraging by striped bass (Morone saxatilis) in the San Francisco Estuary, California: Implications for tidal restoration

Non-native predatory fish strongly impact aquatic communities, and their impacts can be exacerbated by anthropogenic habitat alterations. Loss of natural habitat and restoration actions reversing habitat loss can modify relationships between non-native predators and prey. Predicting how these relationships will change is often difficult because insufficient information exists on the habitat-specific feeding ecology of non-native predators. To address this information gap, we examined diets of non-native Striped Bass ( Morone saxatilis ; 63 to 671 mm standard length; estimated age 1-5 yrs) in the San Francisco Estuary during spring and summer in three habitat types – marsh, shoal, and channel – with the marsh habitat type serving as a model for ongoing and future restoration. Based on a prey-specific index of relative importance, Striped Bass diets were dominated by macroinvertebrates in spring and summer (amphipods in spring, decapods and isopods in summer). In spring, diets were relatively consistent across habitats. In summer, marsh diets were dominated by sphaeromatid isopods and shoal/channel diets by idoteid amphipods and decapods. Striped Bass consumed a variety of native and non-native fishes, primarily Prickly Sculpin ( Cottus asper ) and Gobiidae. The highest importance of fish prey was in the marsh in spring (~40% prey weight), and fish prey comprised less than 25% prey weight in all other season/habitat combinations. Linear discriminant analyses suggested that marsh foraging was prevalent in Striped Bass collected in other habitats, mostly due to the predominance of marsh-associated invertebrates found in the stomachs of individual Striped Bass collected outside of the marsh. Striped Bass diets differ across habitats, with marsh foraging important to Striped Bass regardless of collection location. This information can be used to forecast the potential utilization of restored habitats by this non-native piscivore.

California↗

USGS2025

Predicting sediment bulk density for San Francisco Estuary

Sediment bulk density (ρ-dry) and particle size are two important parameters for predicting sediment bed erosion. ρ-dry, however, is difficult to measure accurately. The units of ρdry have not been consistently reported in the literature, leading to confusion, particularly in the calculation of sediment budgets that typically require integrating mass-based and volumetric components. Relationships between ρdry and sediment composition have been developed for multiple regions and differ between systems. Developing a system-specific predictive model for ρdry can help fill data gaps and improve sediment budgets, model accuracy, and estimates of quantities of sediment needed for restoration. In this study, we investigate whether ρdry in San Francisco Estuary can be predicted from organic carbon content or percent of fines, which are more easily or frequently measured than ρdry. We compiled sediment properties from samples collected over the past decade throughout the intertidal and subtidal regions of San Francisco Bay and the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta to examine this relationship. Sample composition ranged from 2.18 to 99.97% fines (particles < 0.0625 mm), ρ-dry ranged from 0.22 to 1.60 g cm-3, and organic carbon ranged from 0.06 to 7.98%. Regression analysis indicates that the percent of fines explains 93% of the variation of ρ-dry ( p -value < 0.05, N = 81). The coefficient of determination decreased by ~1% when organic carbon was incorporated in the regression analysis. Comparison of this predictive ρ-dry model to four published models based on samples from other regions supports previous findings that the relationship between ρdry and grain size may vary by system. We also examined additional factors that may affect sediment erodibility, such as hydrographic and oceanographic conditions. Classification of sample sites as intertidal vs. subtidal or wavy vs. non-wavy each significantly explained the residuals from the ρdry model, and both intertidal and wavy conditions were associated with higher ρ-dry values.

California↗