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At least 325 records · Page 18Linked to original sources
USGS2024

Modelling effects of flow withdrawal scenarios on riverine and riparian features of the Yampa River in Dinosaur National Monument

The National Park Service (NPS) is charged with maintaining natural riverine resources and processes in its parks along the Yampa River and downstream along the Green River. This mission requires information on how proposed water withdrawals would affect resources. We present a methodology that quantifies the impact on natural riverine and riparian features of Dinosaur National Monument based on alternative withdrawals that vary in volume and timing. This methodology uses a reverse quantification and develops tools to enable the NPS to ensure that if withdrawals must occur, the adverse impacts would be minimized by prescribing or constraining the timing, magnitude, and duration of withdrawal. The reverse quantification, well-suited for unregulated rivers such as the Yampa, strives to protect all flows minus extractions from daily flows based on three parameters: 1) a minimum flow, below which water diversion does not occur; 2) the percentage of the flow above the minimum that is diverted; 3) the maximum daily flow that is diverted. We apply 350 flow extraction scenarios, each defined by a unique set of parameters, to the 99 historic annual hydrographs of daily flows (water year (WY) 1922–2020), and to the more recent 20 years (WY 2001–2020). We also consider how hydrologic year type (wet to dry) influences the flow volume extracted and impact to the resource. Recognizing the seasonal differences in flow and ecological and geomorphic response, we divide each year into four distinct seasonal periods and use relations from the literature between flow, channel change, riparian vegetation and fish behavior, physiology, and habitat to define hydrograph and resource metrics used to evaluate impacts to the resource. While our analysis demonstrates that all withdrawals will damage the resource, extractions during the Early Runoff Period (March 15 – April 30) are least detrimental and extractions during the Summer Baseflow Period (July 16 – October 31) are most detrimental. We find that most aspects of the resource are more sensitive to increasing extractions during drier years than during wetter years. Recent decades have seen a shift towards more frequent drier years, resulting in less water in most periods. As a result, our analysis suggests that extractions in recent decades would have had a greater impact on the resource when compared to similar extractions during the full historical record. Finally, we demonstrate how the NPS may use these results to develop limits on extractions for resource protection.

Colorado, Utah↗
USGS2011

On the use of the beta distribution in probabilistic resource assessments

The triangular distribution is a popular choice when it comes to modeling bounded continuous random variables. Its wide acceptance derives mostly from its simple analytic properties and the ease with which modelers can specify its three parameters through the extremes and the mode. On the negative side, hardly any real process follows a triangular distribution, which from the outset puts at a disadvantage any model employing triangular distributions. At a time when numerical techniques such as the Monte Carlo method are displacing analytic approaches in stochastic resource assessments, easy specification remains the most attractive characteristic of the triangular distribution. The beta distribution is another continuous distribution defined within a finite interval offering wider flexibility in style of variation, thus allowing consideration of models in which the random variables closely follow the observed or expected styles of variation. Despite its more complex definition, generation of values following a beta distribution is as straightforward as generating values following a triangular distribution, leaving the selection of parameters as the main impediment to practically considering beta distributions. This contribution intends to promote the acceptance of the beta distribution by explaining its properties and offering several suggestions to facilitate the specification of its two shape parameters. In general, given the same distributional parameters, use of the beta distributions in stochastic modeling may yield significantly different results, yet better estimates, than the triangular distribution.

Natural Resources Research↗
USGS2016

The 3D Elevation Program: summary for Hawaii

Elevation data are essential to a broad range of applications, including forest resources management, wildlife and habitat management, national security, recreation, and many others. For the State of Hawaii, elevation data are critical for infrastructure and construction management, flood risk management, geologic resource assessment and hazard mitigation, natural resources conservation, coastal zone management, and other business uses. Today, high-density light detection and ranging (lidar) data are the primary sources for deriving elevation models and other datasets. Federal, State, Tribal, U.S. territorial, and local agencies work in partnership to (1) replace data that are older and of lower quality and (2) provide coverage where publicly accessible data do not exist. A joint goal of State and Federal partners is to acquire consistent, statewide coverage to support existing and emerging applications enabled by lidar data. The National Enhanced Elevation Assessment evaluated multiple elevation data acquisition options to determine the optimal data quality and data replacement cycle relative to cost to meet the identified requirements of the user community. The evaluation demonstrated that lidar acquisition at quality level 2 for the conterminous United States, Hawaii, and selected U.S. territories, and quality level 5 interferometric synthetic aperture radar (IfSAR) data for Alaska, all with a 6- to 10-year acquisition cycle, provided the highest benefit/cost ratios. The 3D Elevation Program (3DEP) initiative selected an 8-year acquisition cycle for the respective quality levels. 3DEP, managed by the U.S. Geological Survey, the Office of Management and Budget Circular A–16 lead agency for terrestrial elevation data, responds to the growing need for high-quality topographic data and a wide range of other three-dimensional (3D) representations of the Nation’s natural and constructed features.

Hawai'i↗
USGS2011

Source and delivery of nutrients to receiving waters in the Northeastern and Mid-Atlantic regions of the United States

This study investigates nutrient sources and transport to receiving waters, in order to provide spatially detailed information to aid water-resources managers concerned with eutrophication and nutrient management strategies. SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) nutrient models were developed for the Northeastern and Mid-Atlantic (NE US) regions of the United States to represent source conditions for the year 2002. The model developed to examine the source and delivery of nitrogen to the estuaries of nine large rivers along the NE US Seaboard indicated that agricultural sources contribute the largest percentage (37%) of the total nitrogen load delivered to the estuaries. Point sources account for 28% while atmospheric deposition accounts for 20%. A second SPARROW model was used to examine the sources and delivery of phosphorus to lakes and reservoirs throughout the NE US. The greatest attenuation of phosphorus occurred in lakes that were large relative to the size of their watershed. Model results show that, within the NE US, aquatic decay of nutrients is quite limited on an annual basis and that we especially cannot rely on natural attenuation to remove nutrients within the larger rivers nor within lakes with large watersheds relative to the size of the lake.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗
USGS2020

Development of a novel framework for modeling field-scale conservation effects of depressional wetlands in agricultural landscapes

The intermixed cropland, grassland, and wetland ecosystems of the upper mid-western United States combine to provide a suite of valuable ecological services. Grassland and wetland losses in the upper midwestern United States have been extensive, but government-funded conservation programs have protected and restored hundreds of thousands of acres of wetland and grassland habitat in the region. The value of restored wetlands in agricultural fields is complex, and the USDA Natural Resource Conservation Service, Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP) has been lacking the methodology to include these conservation practices in their analyses. Our aim is to develop a reproducible methodology for simulating wetlands within the CEAP cropland modeling framework used to evaluate other agricultural conservation practices. Furthermore, we evaluate the effect of using upland conservation practices on the functioning of restored wetlands. By simulating the addition of a depressional wetland that effectively removes 6% of the field from crop production, we obtained a 15% reduction in annual runoff and a 29% and 28% reduction in mean annual nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) losses, respectively. The presence of the depressional wetland in the field is estimated to also reduce edge-of-field losses of sediments by 20% and sediment-bound N and P by 19% and 23%, respectively. Additionally, adding a grass filter strip around the wetland greatly decreased sediment inputs to the wetland, increasing the effective life of the wetland, in terms of its ability to perform valued services, by decades to centuries. Our method for modeling depressional wetlands embedded in cropped fields provides a means to quantify the effects of wetland conservation practices on field-level losses for regional assessments, such as the CEAP.

Journal of Soil and Water Conservation↗
USGS2023

PopEquus: a predictive modeling tool to support management decisions for free-roaming horse populations

Feral horse ( Equus caballus ) population management is a challenging problem around the world because populations often exhibit density-independent growth, can exert negative ecological effects on ecosystems, and require great cost to be managed. However, strong value-based connections between people and horses cause contention around management decisions. To help make informed decisions, natural resource managers might benefit from more detailed understanding of how horse management alternatives, including combinations of removals and fertility control methods, could achieve objectives of sustainable, multiple-use ecosystems while minimizing overall horse handling and fiscal costs. Here, we describe a modeling tool that simulates horse management alternatives and estimates trade-offs in predicted metrics related to population size, animal handling, and direct costs of management. The model considers six management actions for populations (removals for adoption or long-term holding; fertility control treatment with three vaccines, intrauterine devices, and mare sterilization), used alone or in combination. We simulated 19 alternative management scenarios at 2-, 3-, and 4-year management return intervals and identified efficiency frontiers among alternatives for trade-offs between predicted population size and six management metrics. Our analysis identified multiple alternatives that could maintain populations within target population size ranges, but some alternatives (e.g., removal and mare sterilization, removal and GonaCon treatment) performed better at minimizing overall animal handling requirements and management costs. Cost savings increased under alternatives with more effective, longer lasting fertility control techniques over longer management intervals compared with alternatives with less-effective, shorter lasting fertility control techniques. We built a user-friendly website application, PopEquus , that decision makers and interested individuals can use to simulate management alternatives and evaluate trade-offs among management and cost metrics. Our results and website application provide quantitative trade-off tools for horse population management decisions and can help support value-based management decisions for wild or feral horse populations and ecosystems at local and regional scales around the world.

Ecosphere↗
USGS1977

Digital-model evaluation of the ground-water resources in Ocotillo-Coyote Wells Basin, Imperial County, California

A flow model using finite-element techniques has been constructed for an alluvial aquifer in the Ocotillo-Coyote Wells Basin, Imperial County, Calif. Natural recharge is about 2,600 acre-feet per year, and estimated ground water in storage is 640 ,000 acre-feet. Pumpage totaled 880 acre-feet in 1975. The computed decline from steady-state conditions in 1925 to December 1975 was 15 feet in Ocotillo. The projected decline from 1976 to 1995 with annual pumpage of 1,000 acre-feet is 6 feet and with annual pumpage of 2,000 acre-feet is 17 feet in Ocotillo. In the latter projection, continued pumping after 1995 may cause saline water to flow toward the potable ground water in and around Ocotillo. (Woodard-USGS)

California↗
USGS2016

Potential effects of alterations to the hydrologic system on the distribution of salinity in the Biscayne aquifer in Broward County, Florida

To address concerns about the effects of water-resource management practices and rising sea level on saltwater intrusion, the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Broward County Environmental Planning and Community Resilience Division, initiated a study to examine causes of saltwater intrusion and predict the effects of future alterations to the hydrologic system on salinity distribution in eastern Broward County, Florida. A three-dimensional, variable-density solute-transport model was calibrated to conditions from 1970 to 2012, the period for which data are most complete and reliable, and was used to simulate historical conditions from 1950 to 2012. These types of models are typically difficult to calibrate by matching to observed groundwater salinities because of spatial variability in aquifer properties that are unknown, and natural and anthropogenic processes that are complex and unknown; therefore, the primary goal was to reproduce major trends and locally generalized distributions of salinity in the Biscayne aquifer. The methods used in this study are relatively new, and results will provide transferable techniques for protecting groundwater resources and maximizing groundwater availability in coastal areas. The model was used to (1) evaluate the sensitivity of the salinity distribution in groundwater to sea-level rise and groundwater pumping, and (2) simulate the potential effects of increases in pumping, variable rates of sea-level rise, movement of a salinity control structure, and use of drainage recharge wells on the future distribution of salinity in the aquifer. Results from the simulation of historical conditions indicate that the model generally represents the observed greater westward extent of elevated salinity in the central part of the intruded area relative to the northern and southernmost parts of the intruded area. Results of sensitivity testing indicate that the extent of elevated salinity is most sensitive to pumping in areas where the source of saltwater is largely offshore, from the Atlantic Ocean, and is most sensitive to sea-level rise in areas where the source of salinity is downward leakage of brackish water from canals. Simulations of future scenarios indicate that increases in pumping near the existing interface may cause the interface to advance and decreases in pumping may cause it to retreat. Climatic effects, such as periods of prolonged drought or high precipitation, may augment or counteract long-term effects of changes in pumping on aquifer salinity at well fields. With increasing rates of sea-level rise, the freshwater-saltwater interface advances progressively inland, and flow-averaged salinities at well fields near the existing interface increase commensurately. Hypothetical southeastward (downstream) re-positioning of the existing G–54 salinity-control structure may prevent the interface from moving northwestward along and near the North New River canal, but beneficial effects are localized. Implementation of freshwater recharge wells in the city of Hallandale Beach may also have only a localized freshening effect in the aquifer and little appreciable effect on the freshwater-saltwater interface or on concentrations of salinity at well fields. Model accuracy and use are limited by uncertainty in the physical properties and boundary conditions of the system, uncertainty in historical and future conditions, and generalizations made in the mathematical relationships used to describe the physical processes of groundwater flow and transport. Because of these limitations, model results should be considered in relative rather than absolute terms. Nonetheless, model results do provide useful information on the relative scale of response of the system to changes in pumping distribution, sea-level rise, and mitigation activities.

Florida↗
USGS2006

MARKOV: A methodology for the solution of infinite time horizon MARKOV decision processes

Algorithms are described for determining optimal policies for finite state, finite action, infinite discrete time horizon Markov decision processes. Both value-improvement and policy-improvement techniques are used in the algorithms. Computing procedures are also described. The algorithms are appropriate for processes that are either finite or infinite, deterministic or stochastic, discounted or undiscounted, in any meaningful combination of these features. Computing procedures are described in terms of initial data processing, bound improvements, process reduction, and testing and solution. Application of the methodology is illustrated with an example involving natural resource management. Management implications of certain hypothesized relationships between mallard survival and harvest rates are addressed by applying the optimality procedures to mallard population models.

Applied Stochastic Models and Data Analysis↗
USGS2016

Using structural equation modeling to link human activities to wetland ecological integrity

The integrity of wetlands is of global concern. A common approach to evaluating ecological integrity involves bioassessment procedures that quantify the degree to which communities deviate from historical norms. While helpful, bioassessment provides little information about how altered conditions connect to community response. More detailed information is needed for conservation and restoration. We have illustrated an approach to addressing this challenge using structural equation modeling (SEM) and long-term monitoring data from Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP). Wetlands in RMNP are threatened by a complex history of anthropogenic disturbance including direct alteration of hydrologic regimes; elimination of elk, wolves, and grizzly bears; reintroduction of elk (absent their primary predators); and the extirpation of beaver. More recently, nonnative moose were introduced to the region and have expanded into the park. Bioassessment suggests that up to half of the park's wetlands are not in reference condition. We developed and evaluated a general hypothesis about how human alterations influence wetland integrity and then develop a specific model using RMNP wetlands. Bioassessment revealed three bioindicators that appear to be highly sensitive to human disturbance (HD): (1) conservatism, (2) degree of invasion, and (3) cover of native forbs. SEM analyses suggest several ways human activities have impacted wetland integrity and the landscape of RMNP. First, degradation is highest where the combined effects of all types of direct HD have been the greatest (i.e., there is a general, overall effect). Second, specific HDs appear to create a “mixed-bag” of complex indirect effects, including reduced invasion and increased conservatism, but also reduced native forb cover. Some of these effects are associated with alterations to hydrologic regimes, while others are associated with altered shrub production. Third, landscape features created by historical beaver activity continue to influence wetland integrity years after beavers have abandoned sites via persistent landforms and reduced biomass of tall shrubs. Our model provides a system-level perspective on wetland integrity and provides a context for future evaluations and investigations. It also suggests scientifically supported natural resource management strategies that can assist in the National Park Service mission of maintaining or, when indicated, restoring ecological integrity “unimpaired for future generations.”

Colorado↗
USGS2018

Population ecology of Roosevelt elk: Conservation and management in Redwood National and State Parks. Butch Weckerly. 2017. University of Nevada Press, Reno, Nevada, USA. 224 pp. $54.95 hardback. ISBN 978- 1943859504.

Long-term research on large ungulate populations typically conjures perceptions of extensive (and expensive) animal capture and telemetry work, and subsequent advanced modeling of resource selection and population dynamics that inform management decisions. In contrast, studies lacking a telemetry component are often limited to animal behavior or natural history. Although compelling from a standpoint of advancing understanding of ecological and evolutionary processes, results from the latter can be unfairly labeled as esoteric because they are not easily transferable to resource managers or may not provide exceptional interest to a general public drawn to these charismatic megafuana. Such dichotomies are not predetermined, however, because study conditions exist where dedicated academic researchers on tight budgets can achieve results relevant to ecology and management.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗
USGS2003

Bayesian inference and decision theory - A framework for decision making in natural resource management

Bayesian inference and decision theory may be used in the solution of relatively complex problems of natural resource management, owing to recent advances in statistical theory and computing. In particular, Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms provide a computational framework for fitting models of adequate complexity and for evaluating the expected consequences of alternative management actions. We illustrate these features using an example based on management of waterfowl habitat.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2010

Design and analysis of simple choice surveys for natural resource management

We used a simple yet powerful method for judging public support for management actions from randomized surveys. We asked respondents to rank choices (representing management regulations under consideration) according to their preference, and we then used discrete choice models to estimate probability of choosing among options (conditional on the set of options presented to respondents). Because choices may share similar unmodeled characteristics, the multinomial logit model, commonly applied to discrete choice data, may not be appropriate. We introduced the nested logit model, which offers a simple approach for incorporating correlation among choices. This forced choice survey approach provides a useful method of gathering public input; it is relatively easy to apply in practice, and the data are likely to be more informative than asking constituents to rate attractiveness of each option separately.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗
USGS1984

Steady-state computer model of the water-table aquifer in the Mullica River basin, the Pine Barrens, New Jersey

A two-dimensional steady-state model of the water-table aquifer of the Mullica River basin was made to evaluate the flow system and data required to simulate it. The Mullica River basin covers 570 sq mi and is drained by numerous shallow streams. The water-table aquifer consists of sand and gravel intermixed with clay and silt. The computer model is based on a finite-difference method with stream-seepage equations coupled to the groundwater equation. The model was applied to the approximately steady-state conditions of March 1979. Initial estimates of streambed hydraulic conductance and aquifer hydraulic conductivity were adjusted until model water level matched measured water level within 5 ft for 41 of 42 wells. Also, model streamflow was within 20 percent of measured streamflow at 12 of 15 sites. The 5,000-ft grid spacing should be adequate for a future predictive model. The natural flow system is adequately simulated by a two-dimensional model. (USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS2015

The 3D Elevation Program: summary for Wyoming

Elevation data are essential to a broad range of applications, including forest resources management, wildlife and habitat management, national security, recreation, and many others. For the State of Wyoming, elevation data are critical for geologic resource assessment and hazard mitigation, flood risk management, water supply an quality, natural resources conservation, agriculture and precision farming, and other business uses. Today, high-density light detection and ranging (lidar) data are the primary sources for deriving elevation models and other datasets. Federal, State, Tribal, and local agencies work in partnership to (1) replace data that are older and of lower quality and (2) provide coverage where publicly accessible data do not exist. A joint goal of State and Federal partners is to acquire consistent, statewide coverage to support existing and emerging applications enabled by lidar data. The National Enhanced Elevation Assessment evaluated multiple elevation data acquisition options to determine the optimal data quality and data replacement cycle relative to cost to meet the identified requirements of the user community. The evaluation demonstrated that lidar acquisition at quality level 2 for the conterminous United States and quality level 5 interferometric synthetic aperture radar (ifsar) data for Alaska with a 6- to 10-year acquisition cycle provided the highest benefit/cost ratios.The 3D Elevation Program (3DEP) initiative selected an 8-year acquisition cycle for the respective quality levels. 3DEP, managed by the U.S. Geological Survey, the Office of Management and Budget Circular A–16 lead agency for terrestrial elevation data, responds to the growing need for high-quality topographic data and a wide range of other 3D representations of the Nation’s natural and constructed features.

Wyoming↗
USGS2014

The 3D Elevation Program: summary for Oklahoma

Elevation data are essential to a broad range of applications, including forest resources management, wildlife and habitat management, national security, recreation, and many others. For the State of Oklahoma, elevation data are critical for flood risk management, infrastructure and construction management, agriculture and precision farming, natural resources conservation, wildlife and habitat management, and other business uses. Today, high-density light detection and ranging (lidar) data are the primary sources for deriving elevation models and other datasets. Federal, State, Tribal, and local agencies work in partnership to (1) replace data that are older and of lower quality and (2) provide coverage where publicly accessible data do not exist. A joint goal of local, State, and Federal partners is to acquire consistent, statewide coverage to support existing and emerging applications enabled by lidar data. The National Enhanced Elevation Assessment (NEEA; Dewberry, 2011) evaluated multiple elevation data acquisition options to determine the optimal data quality and data replacement cycle relative to cost to meet the identified requirements of the user community. The evaluation demonstrated that lidar acquisition at quality level 2 for the conterminous United States and quality level 5 interferometric synthetic aperture radar (ifsar) data for Alaska with a 6- to 10-year acquisition cycle provided the highest benefit/cost ratios. The 3D Elevation Program (3DEP) initiative selected an 8-year acquisition cycle for the respective quality levels. 3DEP, managed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the Office of Management and Budget Circular A–16 lead agency for terrestrial elevation data, responds to the growing need for high-quality topographic data and a wide range of other 3D representations of the Nation’s natural and constructed features.

Oklahoma↗
USGS2022

Grassy–herbaceous land moderates regional climate effects on honey bee colonies in the Northcentral US

The lack of seasonally sustained floral resources (i.e. pollen and nectar) is considered a primary global threat to pollinator health. However, the ability to predict the abundance of flowering resources for pollinators based upon climate, weather, and land cover is difficult due to insufficient monitoring over adequate spatial and temporal scales. Here we use spatiotemporally distributed honey bee hive scales that continuously measure hive weights as a standardized method to assess nectar intake. We analyze late summer colony weight gain as the response variable in a random forest regression model to determine the importance of climate, weather, and land cover on honey bee colony productivity. Our random forest model predicted resource acquisition by honey bee colonies with 71% accuracy, highlighting the detrimental effects of warm, wet regions in the Northcentral United States on nectar intake, as well as the detrimental effect of years with high growing degree day accumulation. Our model also predicted that grassy–herbaceous natural land had a positive effect on the summer nectar flow and that large areas of natural grassy–herbaceous land around apiaries can moderate the detrimental effects of warm, wet climates. These patterns characterize multi-scale ecological processes that constrain the quantity and quality of pollinator nutritional resources. That is, broad climate conditions constrain regional floral communities, while land use and weather act to further modify the quantity and quality of pollinator nutritional resources. Observing such broad-scale trends demonstrates the potential for utilizing hive scales to monitor the effects of climate change on landscape-level floral resources for pollinators. The interaction of climate and land use also present an opportunity to manage for climate-resilient landscapes that support pollinators through abundant floral resources under climate change.

Michigan, Minnesota, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylva↗
USGS2007

Use of the Delphi method in resolving complex water resources issues

The tri-state river basins, shared by Georgia, Alabama, and Florida, are being modeled by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to help facilitate agreement in an acrimonious water dispute among these different state governments. Modeling of such basin reservoir operations requires parallel understanding of several river system components: hydropower production, flood control, municipal and industrial water use, navigation, and reservoir fisheries requirements. The Delphi method, using repetitive surveying of experts, was applied to determine fisheries' water and lake-level requirements on 25 reservoirs in these interstate basins. The Delphi technique allowed the needs and requirements of fish populations to be brought into the modeling effort on equal footing with other water supply and demand components. When the subject matter is concisely defined and limited, this technique can rapidly assess expert opinion on any natural resource issue, and even move expert opinion toward greater agreement.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗