Modelling effects of flow withdrawal scenarios on riverine and riparian features of the Yampa River in Dinosaur National Monument

Abstract

The National Park Service (NPS) is charged with maintaining natural riverine resources and processes in its parks along the Yampa River and downstream along the Green River. This mission requires information on how proposed water withdrawals would affect resources. We present a methodology that quantifies the impact on natural riverine and riparian features of Dinosaur National Monument based on alternative withdrawals that vary in volume and timing. This methodology uses a reverse quantification and develops tools to enable the NPS to ensure that if withdrawals must occur, the adverse impacts would be minimized by prescribing or constraining the timing, magnitude, and duration of withdrawal. The reverse quantification, well-suited for unregulated rivers such as the Yampa, strives to protect all flows minus extractions from daily flows based on three parameters: 1) a minimum flow, below which water diversion does not occur; 2) the percentage of the flow above the minimum that is diverted; 3) the maximum daily flow that is diverted. We apply 350 flow extraction scenarios, each defined by a unique set of parameters, to the 99 historic annual hydrographs of daily flows (water year (WY) 1922–2020), and to the more recent 20 years (WY 2001–2020). We also consider how hydrologic year type (wet to dry) influences the flow volume extracted and impact to the resource. Recognizing the seasonal differences in flow and ecological and geomorphic response, we divide each year into four distinct seasonal periods and use relations from the literature between flow, channel change, riparian vegetation and fish behavior, physiology, and habitat to define hydrograph and resource metrics used to evaluate impacts to the resource. While our analysis demonstrates that all withdrawals will damage the resource, extractions during the Early Runoff Period (March 15 – April 30) are least detrimental and extractions during the Summer Baseflow Period (July 16 – October 31) are most detrimental. We find that most aspects of the resource are more sensitive to increasing extractions during drier years than during wetter years. Recent decades have seen a shift towards more frequent drier years, resulting in less water in most periods. As a result, our analysis suggests that extractions in recent decades would have had a greater impact on the resource when compared to similar extractions during the full historical record. Finally, we demonstrate how the NPS may use these results to develop limits on extractions for resource protection.