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USGS2017

Diel periodicity and chronology of upstream migration in yellow-phase American eels (Anguilla rostrata)

Yellow-phase American eel ( Anguilla rostrata ) upstream migration is temporally punctuated, yet migration chronology within diel time periods is not well-understood. This study examined diel periodicity, chronology, and total length (TL) of six multi-day, high-count (285–1,868 eels) passage events of upstream migrant yellow-phase American eels at the Millville Dam eel ladder, lower Shenandoah River, West Virginia during 2011–2014. We categorized passage by diel periods (vespertine, nocturnal, matutinal, diurnal) and season (spring, summer, late summer/early fall, fall). We depicted passage counts as time-series histograms and used time-series spectral analysis (Fast Fourier Transformation) to identify cyclical patterns and diel periodicity of upstream migration. We created histograms to examine movement patterns within diel periods for each passage event and fit normal mixture models (2–9 mixtures) to describe multiple peaks of passage counts. Periodicity of movements for each passage event followed a 24-h activity cycle with mostly nocturnal movement. Multimodal models were supported by the data; most modes represented nocturnal movements, but modes at or near the transition between twilight and night were also common. We used mixed-model methodology to examine relationships among TL, diel period, and season. An additive-effects model of diel period + season was the best approximating model. A decreasing trend of mean TL occurred across diel movement periods, with the highest mean TL occurring during fall relative to similar mean values of TL for spring, summer, and late summer/early fall. This study increased our understanding of yellow-phase American eels by demonstrating the non-random nature of their upstream migration.

West Virginia↗

USGS2017

Vertical self-sorting behavior in juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha): evidence for family differences and variation in growth and morphology

Life history variation is fundamental to the evolution of Pacific salmon and their persistence under variable conditions. We discovered that Chinook salmon sort themselves into surface- and bottom-oriented groups in tanks within days after exogenous feeding. We hypothesised that this behaviour is correlated with subsequent differences in body morphology and growth (as measured by final length and mass) observed later in life. We found consistent morphological differences between surface and bottom phenotypes. Furthermore, we found that surface and bottom orientation within each group is maintained for at least one year after the phenotypes were separated. These surface and bottom phenotypes are expressed across genetic stocks, brood years, and laboratories and we show that the proportion of surface- and bottom-oriented offspring also differed among families. Importantly, feed delivery location did not affect morphology or growth, and the surface fish were longer than bottom fish at the end of the rearing experiment. The body shape of the former correlates with wild individuals that rear in mainstem habitats and migrate in the fall as subyearlings and the latter resemble those that remain in the upper tributaries and migrate as yearling spring migrants. Our findings suggest that early self-sorting behaviour may have a genetic basis and be correlated with other phenotypic traits that are important indicators for juvenile migration timing.

Environmental Biology of Fishes↗

USGS2012

Expansion of urban area and wastewater irrigated rice area in Hyderabad, India

The goal of this study was to investigate land use changes in urban and peri-urban Hyderabad and their influence on wastewater irrigated rice using Landsat ETM + data and spectral matching techniques. The main source of irrigation water is the Musi River, which collects a large volume of wastewater and stormwater while running through the city. From 1989 to 2002, the wastewater irrigated area along the Musi River increased from 5,213 to 8,939 ha with concurrent expansion of the city boundaries from 22,690 to 42,813 ha and also decreased barren lands and range lands from 86,899 to 66,616 ha. Opportunistic shifts in land use, especially related to wastewater irrigated agriculture, were seen as a response to the demand for fresh vegetables and easy access to markets, exploited mainly by migrant populations. While wastewater irrigated agriculture contributes to income security of marginal groups, it also supplements the food basket of many city dwellers. Landsat ETM + data and advanced methods such as spectral matching techniques are ideal for quantifying urban expansion and associated land use changes, and are useful for urban planners and decision makers alike. ?? 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Irrigation and Drainage Systems↗

USGS2023

Exposure to risk factors experienced during migration is not associated with recent Vermivora warbler population trends

Context Understanding the factors limiting populations of animals is critical for effective conservation. Determining which factors limit populations of migratory species can be especially challenging because of their reliance on multiple, often geographically distant regions during their annual cycles. Objectives We investigated whether distribution-wide variation in recent breeding population trends was more strongly associated with exposure to risk factors experienced during migration (i.e., natural and anthropogenic threats often associated with increased mortality or carry-over effects) or factors associated with breeding and nonbreeding areas in golden-winged warblers ( Vermivora chrysoptera ) and blue-winged warblers ( V. cyanoptera ), two Nearctic-Neotropical migrants experiencing regionally variable population trends. Methods We used geolocator data from 85 Vermivora warblers ( n = 90 geolocator tracks) tracked from North American breeding locations and Central American nonbreeding locations from 2013 to 2017 to determine variation in space use among populations. We assessed whether differences in space use among populations of Vermivora warblers during migration were associated with exposure to migration risk-factors and whether increased relative exposure to migration risk factors was associated with population declines at regional and subregional scales. Results Regional and subregional populations of Vermivora warblers exhibited variation in space use and exposure to anthropogenic and natural risk-factors. However, we found no evidence that recent variation in population trends of Vermivora warblers was associated with risk-factors experienced by different populations during migration. Instead, factors associated with land cover-types in breeding and nonbreeding areas were more strongly associated with recent population trends. Conclusions Understanding how populations of migratory birds are affected by factors experienced during migration is critical for their conservation. We did not find evidence that variation in exposure to migration risk-factors is associated with recent regional or subregional variation in Vermivora warbler population trends. Consequently, our results suggest that efforts to reverse ongoing population declines of Vermivora warblers may be more effective if directed toward conservation actions targeting limiting factors within the breeding and nonbreeding periods versus those directed at conditions encountered during migration. We caution that geographic variation in projected land-use change may differentially affect areas used by different populations of Vermivora warblers during migration, posing a potential threat to these species in the future.

Landscape Ecology↗

USGS2014

Evaluating abiotic influences on soil salinity of inland managed wetlands and agricultural croplands in a semi-arid environment

Agriculture and moist-soil management are important management techniques used on wildlife refuges to provide adequate energy for migrant waterbirds. In semi-arid systems, the accumulation of soluble salts throughout the soil profile can limit total production of wetland plants and agronomic crops and thus jeopardize meeting waterbird energy needs. This study evaluates the effect of distinct hydrologic regimes associated with moist-soil management and agricultural production on salt accumulation in a semi-arid floodplain. We hypothesized that the frequency of flooding and quantity of floodwater in a moist-soil management hydroperiod results in a less saline soil profile compared to profiles under traditional agricultural management. Findings showed that agricultural croplands differed ( p -value < 0.001, df = 9) in quantities of total soluble salts (TSS) compared to moist-soil impoundments and contained greater concentrations (TSS range = 1,160-1,750 (mg kg-1)) at depth greater than 55 cm below the surface of the profile, while moist-soil impoundments contained lower concentrations (TSS range = 307-531 (mg kg-1)) at the same depths. Increased salts in agricultural may be attributed to the lack of leaching afforded by smaller summer irrigations while larger periodic flooding events in winter and summer flood irrigations in moist-soil impoundments may serve as leaching events.

Wetlands↗

USGS2016

Sediment accumulation in prairie wetlands under a changing climate: The relative roles of landscape and precipitation

Sediment accumulation threatens the viability and hydrologic functioning of many naturally formed depressional wetlands across the interior regions of North America. These wetlands provide many ecosystem services and vital habitats for diverse plant and animal communities. Climate change may further impact sediment accumulation rates in the context of current land use patterns. We estimated sediment accretion in wetlands within a region renowned for its large populations of breeding waterfowl and migrant shorebirds and examined the relative roles of precipitation and land use context in the sedimentation process. We modeled rates of sediment accumulation from 1971 through 2100 using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) with a sediment delivery ratio and the Unit Stream Power Erosion Deposition model (USPED). These models predicted that by 2100, 21–33 % of wetlands filled completely with sediment and 27–46 % filled by half with sediments; estimates are consistent with measured sediment accumulation rates in the region reported by empirical studies. Sediment accumulation rates were strongly influenced by size of the catchment, greater coverage of tilled landscape within the catchment, and steeper slopes. Conservation efforts that incorporate the relative risk of infilling of wetlands with sediments, thus emphasizing areas of high topographic relief and large watersheds, may benefit wetland-dependent biota.

Prairie Pothole region↗

USGS2016

Implications of climate change for wetland-dependent birds in the Prairie Pothole Region

The habitats and food resources required to support breeding and migrant birds dependent on North American prairie wetlands are threatened by impending climate change. The North American Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) hosts nearly 120 species of wetland-dependent birds representing 21 families. Strategic management requires knowledge of avian habitat requirements and assessment of species most vulnerable to future threats. We applied bioclimatic species distribution models (SDMs) to project range changes of 29 wetland-dependent bird species using ensemble modeling techniques, a large number of General Circulation Models (GCMs), and hydrological climate covariates. For the U.S. PPR, mean projected range change, expressed as a proportion of currently occupied range, was −0.31 (± 0.22 SD; range − 0.75 to 0.16), and all but two species were projected to lose habitat. Species associated with deeper water were expected to experience smaller negative impacts of climate change. The magnitude of climate change impacts was somewhat lower in this study than earlier efforts most likely due to use of different focal species, varying methodologies, different modeling decisions, or alternative GCMs. Quantification of the projected species-specific impacts of climate change using species distribution modeling offers valuable information for vulnerability assessments within the conservation planning process.

Prairie Pothole Region↗

USGS2016

Tarangire revisited: Consequences of declining connectivity in a tropical ungulate population

The hyper-abundance of migratory wildlife in many ecosystems depends on maintaining access to seasonally available resources. In Eastern and Southern Africa, land-use change and a loss of connectivity have coincided with widespread declines in the abundance and geographic range of ungulate populations. Using photographic capture-mark-recapture, we examine the historical pattern of loss of connectivity and its impact on population trends in a partially migratory wildebeest population in northern Tanzania. To estimate abundance, we use a novel modeling approach that overcomes bias associated with photo misidentifications. Our data indicate (1) diminished connectivity within and between seasonal areas as a result of human activities, (2) a reduction in the overall population size compared to historical numbers, with high variability over time, (3) the continued use of highly constrained movement corridors between the three main seasonal ranges, (4) higher recruitment in the non-migratory subpopulation (Lake Manyara National Park) than in other areas of the ecosystem, and (5) an increase in the relative abundance of resident to migrant wildebeest. Recent conservation efforts to protect seasonal habitat and to enforce anti-poaching policies outside protected areas have likely helped stabilize the population, at least temporarily, but we caution that several key vulnerabilities remain.

Tarangire-Manyara Ecosystem↗

USGS2014

Reconstruction of historic sea ice conditions in a sub-Arctic lagoon

Historical sea ice conditions were reconstructed for Izembek Lagoon, Bering Sea, Alaska. This lagoon is a crucial staging area during migration for numerous species of avian migrants and a major eelgrass ( Zostera marina ) area important to a variety of marine and terrestrial organisms, especially Pacific Flyway black brant geese ( Branta bernicla nigricans ). Ice cover is a common feature of the lagoon in winter, but appears to be declining, which has implications for eelgrass distribution and abundance, and its use by wildlife. We evaluated ice conditions from a model based on degree days, calibrated to satellite observations, to estimate distribution and long-term trends in ice conditions in Izembek Lagoon. Model results compared favorably with ground observations and 26 years of satellite data, allowing ice conditions to be reconstructed back to 1943. Specifically, periods of significant (limited access to eelgrass areas) and severe (almost complete ice coverage of the lagoon) ice conditions could be identified. The number of days of severe ice within a single season ranged from 0 (e.g., 2001) to ≥ 67 (e.g., 2000). We detected a slight long-term negative trend in ice conditions, superimposed on high inter-annual variability in seasonal aggregate ice conditions. Based on reconstructed ice conditions, the seasonally cumulative number of significant or severe ice days correlated linearly with mean air temperature from January until March. Further, air temperature at Izembek Lagoon was correlated with wind direction, suggesting that ice conditions in Izembek Lagoon were associated with synoptic-scale weather patterns. Methods employed in this analysis may be transferable to other coastal locations in the Arctic.

Alaska↗

USGS2026

Foraging benefits promote fitness in migratory mule deer

Although migration is widespread among ungulates, the fitness benefits associated with different migratory tactics have rarely been documented. Here, we evaluated a 9-year dataset on a migratory population of mule deer to test the hypothesis that long-distance migration provides access to seasonal forage which translates into demographic benefits. Mule deer that migrated long (>130 km) and medium distances (50–130 km) accessed higher forage quality and thus gained 1.3–2.7 times more fat over the growing season compared to mule deer that remained year-round as residents within a desert ecosystem. Elevated levels of fat translated to ∼20% higher probability of adult annual survival than residents. Mule deer that remained year-round in the desert portion of the study area were so resource-limited that they raised fawns at the expense of their own survival. Due to their higher levels of fat, annual survival, and fetal rates, migrants showed more robust population growth (λ = 1.03) compared to residents, which exhibited projected declines in population size over time (λ = 0.95). These results support the notion that migration translates into demographic benefits and highlight the urgent conservation work necessary to sustain diverse ungulate migrations amid habitat alteration due to climate change and an expanding web of linear barriers to movement.

Wyoming↗

USGS2023

Intra-specific variation in responses to habitat restoration: Could artificial reefs increase spatiotemporal segregation between migratory phenotypes of lake sturgeon?

Habitat restoration is an important tool used to conserve biodiversity and restore species, but its effects are notoriously difficult to predict. Although outcomes of restoration projects are usually assessed using indices of species abundance and diversity, phenotypic differences among individuals within species are likely associated with differing responses to restored habitats. Here, we use lake sturgeon ( Acipenser fulvescens ) as a case study to illustrate how responses to habitat restoration can differ between phenotypes and potentially lead to unanticipated effects on populations. North America’s St. Clair River supports one of the largest remaining populations of lake sturgeon but has lost much spawning habitat due to its role as a major industrial corridor between the Laurentian Great Lakes Erie and Huron. Two artificial reefs were recently built in the lower and middle segments of the river to increase the available sturgeon spawning habitat. Interestingly, lake sturgeon in the St. Clair River express different migratory phenotypes that may be associated with different likelihoods of colonizing artificial reefs. Acoustic telemetry revealed that artificial reefs were more likely to be used by sturgeon that migrated downstream to overwinter in Lake St. Clair than those that migrated upstream to overwinter in Lake Huron. Furthermore, increasing time spent at the artificial reefs by Lake St. Clair migrants was associated with later arrival to and shorter occupancy of the river’s only natural spawning site, the primary location where the two phenotypes have opportunity to interbreed. Additional research is necessary to determine the ultimate impacts of the artificial reefs on lake sturgeon populations; nevertheless, our study showed phenotype-specific opportunity to colonize restored habitat and a mechanism through which this could lead to changes in gene flow. Our results illustrate the importance of considering intra-specific diversity when planning restoration projects and assessing the effects on populations.

Michigan, Ontario↗

USGS2021

Space matters: Host spatial structure and the dynamics of plague transmission

The development of models to elucidate the transmission pathways and dynamics of wildlife diseases remains challenging. Sylvatic plague, caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis ( Yp ), is an infectious zoonotic disease that primarily affects wild rodents, including prairie dogs ( Cynomys spp.) in North America. Proposed transmission pathways for Yp include flea bites, direct contacts between hosts, and environmental reservoirs (e.g. soil, carcasses). We developed a spatially explicit, agent-based model of Yp transmission to explore the effects of alternative transmission pathways, different disease initiation mechanisms (host or fleas), parameter uncertainty, and spatial structure of hosts. A particularly novel aspect of our model was the integration of ecological models with traditional disease models. Specifically, we used estimates from spatial capture-recapture models to generate data-driven spatial distributions, densities, and contact rates to capture the spatial structure of prairie dogs. We simulated ~9 million scenarios across a wide range of parameter values and conducted sensitivity analyses to determine the most influential parameters on the number of flea-days (sum of the mean number of fleas on hosts each day of the simulation), number of newly infected hosts per day, the time to depopulation (<20 prairie dogs remaining), and the proportion of the prairie dog population remaining at the end of the simulation (after 150 days). When including spatial structure, we found the probability of transmission via environmental sources of Yp (i.e. carcasses) had the greatest influence on model results when Yp infection was initiated in prairie dog hosts, rather than in fleas. Conversely, the mechanism of transmission by fleas to prairie dogs had the greatest influence on model results when Yp infection was initiated in fleas (i.e. via introduction by carnivores, a migrant prairie dog, or other mammalian host). Uncertainty in parameter estimates, particularly those related to the transmission pathways of Yp, continue to hamper efforts to realistically model plague dynamics in wild rodents. Our results elucidate the complexity of the flea-plague-prairie dog system and reiterate the importance of research on Yp transmission mechanisms to provide a full understanding of this disease. Our results also emphasize the importance of realistic estimates of spatial structure for exploring transmission dynamics of wildlife diseases and provide a framework for generating a data-driven description of spatial structure.

Ecological Modelling↗

USGS2008

Projected long-term response of Southeastern birds to forest management

Numerous studies have explored the influence of forest management on avian communities empirically, but uncertainty about causal relationships between landscape patterns and temporal dynamics of bird communities calls into question how observed historical patterns can be projected into the future, particularly to assess consequences of differing management alternatives. We used the Habplan harvest scheduler to project forest conditions under several management scenarios mapped at 5-year time steps over a 40-year time span. We used empirical models of overall avian richness, richness of selected guilds, and probability of presence for selected species to predict avian community characteristics for each of the mapped landscapes generated for each 5-year time step for each management scenario. We then used time series analyses to quantify relationships between changes in avian community characteristics and management-induced changes to forest landscapes over time. Our models of avian community and species characteristics indicated habitat associations at multiple spatial scales, although landscape-level measures of habitat were generally more important than stand-level measures. Our projections showed overall avian richness, richness of Neotropical migrants, and the presence of Blue-gray Gnatcatchers and Eastern Wood-pewees varied little among management scenarios, corresponding closely to broad, overall landscape changes over time. By contrast, richness of canopy nesters, richness of cavity nesters, richness of scrub-successional associates, and the presence of Common Yellowthroats showed high temporal variability among management scenarios, likely corresponding to short-term, fine-scale changes in the landscape. Predicted temporal variability of both interior-forest and early successional birds was low in the unharvested landscape relative to that in the harvested landscape. Our results also suggested that early successional species can be sensitive to both availability and connectivity of habitat on the landscape. To increase or maintain the avian diversity, our projections indicate that forest managers need to consider landscape-scale configuration of stands, maintaining a spatially heterogeneous distribution of age classes. Our findings suggest which measures of richness or species presence may be appropriate indicators for monitoring effects of forest management on avian communities, depending on management objectives.

Forest Ecology and Management↗

USGS2009

Foraging behavior of pileated woodpeckers in partial cut and uncut bottomland hardwood forest

In bottomland hardwood forests, partial cutting techniques are increasingly advocated and used to create habitat for priority wildlife like Louisiana black bear ( Ursus americanus luteolus ), white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ), and Neotropical migrants. Although partial cutting may be beneficial to some species, those that use dead wood may be negatively affected since large diameter and poor quality trees (deformed, moribund, or dead) are rare, but normally targeted for removal. On the other hand, partial cutting can create dead wood if logging slash is left on-site. We studied foraging behavior of pileated woodpeckers ( Dryocopus pileatus ) in one- and two-year-old partial cuts designed to benefit priority species and in uncut forest during winter, spring, and summer of 2006 and 2007 in Louisiana. Males and females did not differ in their use of tree species, dbh class, decay class, foraging height, use of foraging tactics or substrate types; however, males foraged on larger substrates than females. In both partial cut and uncut forest, standing live trees were most frequently used (83% compared to 14% for standing dead trees and 3% for coarse woody debris); however, dead trees were selected (i.e. used out of proportion to availability). Overcup oak ( Quercus lyrata ) and bitter pecan ( Carya aquatica ) were also selected and sugarberry ( Celtis laevigata ) avoided. Pileated woodpeckers selected trees >= 50 cm dbh and avoided trees in smaller dbh classes (10-20 cm). Density of selected foraging substrates was the same in partial cut and uncut forest. Of the foraging substrates, woodpeckers spent 54% of foraging time on live branches and boles, 37% on dead branches and boles, and 9% on vines. Of the foraging tactics, the highest proportion of foraging time was spent excavating (58%), followed by pecking (14%), gleaning (14%), scaling (7%), berry-eating (4%), and probing (3%). Woodpecker use of foraging tactics and substrates, and foraging height and substrate diameter did not differ between recent partial cut and uncut forest. Partial cutting designed to improve or maintain habitat for priority wildlife did not affect pileated woodpecker foraging behavior or availability of selected trees compared to uncut forest in the short term.

Forest Ecology and Management↗

USGS2021

Evaluating the role of active management in mature Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) stands for songbird conservation

Forest birds, particularly those associated with late-successional forests, are of widespread conservation interest. Although birds are among the more widely studied taxa of forest wildlife, relatively few studies have examined the long-term effects of active management (i.e., intentional stand density reduction) on the forest bird assemblage. This is an important omission, as changes in stand structure and composition over the decades following harvesting may influence wildlife utilization of forest stands. We developed an observational study to evaluate forest bird response to stand structural development multiple decades following harvesting with differing levels of overstory density reduction, and in unmanaged stands. We focused, in particular, on songbirds and cavity excavating species associated with old-growth Douglas-fir forests, and the active management strategies that we examined – thinning and structural retention harvesting – were selected based on their potential to accelerate stand structural development. Our 18 mature stands (age range: 107–187 years) were located in the western hemlock zone of western Oregon, and bird surveys were conducted an average of 41 years and 22 years post-harvest in thinned and retention harvest stands, respectively. Poisson generalized linear models were formulated to evaluate the effects of management condition on forest birds. Although five species were associated with specific management conditions, relative abundance was not statistically different between unmanaged, thinned and retention harvest stands for a majority of the species in our analysis. Species richness was also relatively invariant across management conditions. Our results do suggest that retention harvesting adversely affects some songbird species associated with old-growth forests – Pacific-slope flycatcher ( Empidonax difficilis ) and Pacific wren ( Troglodytes pacificus ) for example - but our findings also indicate that retention harvesting has long-term benefits for birds associated with early-successional forests. This includes migrant species that have experienced significant population declines in Western North America over recent decades, such as Wilson’s and MacGillivray’s warblers ( Cardellina pusilla and Geothlypis tolmiei , respectively). Overall, our results imply that for many species of forest birds, including those associated with old-growth forests, managers have some flexibility in overstory density management where long-term species persistence is an objective. Equally significant, our results provide strong support for the application of variable retention harvesting as a tool for the conservation of bird species associated with early-successional forests, while also reinforcing the value of mature structural legacies for bird species associated with late-successional forests. While also reinforcing the value of mature structural legacies for birds associated with late-successional forests.

Oregon↗

USGS2018

Lateral and vertical distribution of downstream migrating juvenile sea lamprey

Sea lamprey is considered an invasive and nuisance species in the Laurentian Great Lakes, Lake Champlain, and the Finger Lakes of New York and is a major focus of control efforts. Currently, management practices focus on limiting the area of infestation using barriers to block migratory adults, and lampricides to kill ammocoetes in infested tributaries. No control efforts currently target the downstream-migrating post-metamorphic life stage which could provide another management opportunity. In order to apply control methods to this life stage, a better understanding of their downstream movement patterns is needed. To quantify spatial distribution of downstream migrants, we deployed fyke and drift nets laterally and vertically across the stream channel in two tributaries of Lake Champlain. Sea lamprey was not randomly distributed across the stream width and lateral distribution showed a significant association with discharge. Results indicated that juvenile sea lamprey is most likely to be present in the thalweg and at midwater depths of the stream channel. Further, a majority of the catch occurred during high flow events, suggesting an increase in downstream movement activity when water levels are higher than base flow. Discharge and flow are strong predictors of the distribution of out-migrating sea lamprey, thus managers will need to either target capture efforts in high discharge areas of streams or develop means to guide sea lamprey away from these areas.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗

USGS2023

Modeled distribution shifts of North American birds over four decades based on suitable climate alone do not predict observed shifts

As climate change alters the global environment, it is critical to understand the relationship between shifting climate suitability and species distributions. Key questions include whether observed changes in population abundance are aligned with the velocity and direction of shifts predicted by climate suitability models and if the responses are consistent among species with similar ecological traits. We examined the direction and velocity of the observed abundance-based distribution centroids compared with the model-predicted bioclimatic distribution centroids of 250 bird species across the United States from 1969 to 2011. We hypothesized that there is a significant positive correlation in both direction and velocity between the observed and the modeled shifts. We then tested five additional hypotheses that predicted differential shifting velocity based on ecological adaptability and climate change exposure. Contrary to our hypotheses, we found large differences between the observed and modeled shifts among all studied bird species and within specific ecological guilds. However, temperate migrants and habitat generalist species tended to have higher velocity of observed shifts than other species. Neotropical migratory and wetland birds also had significantly different observed velocities than their counterparts, which may be due to their climate change exposure. The velocity based on modeled bioclimatic suitability did not exhibit significant differences among most guilds. Boreal forest birds were the only guild with significantly faster modeled-shifts than the other groups, suggesting an elevated conservation risk for high latitude and altitude species. The highly idiosyncratic species responses to climate and the mismatch between shifts in modeled and observed distribution centroids highlight the challenge of predicting species distribution change based solely on climate suitability and the importance of non-climatic factors traits in shaping species distributions.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS1983

Origins of rainbow smelt in Lake Ontario

The first rainbow smelt ( Osmerus mordax ) to enter Lake Ontario were probably migrants from an anadromous strain introduced into New York's Finger Lakes. Since the upper Great Lakes were originally stocked with a landlocked strain from Green Lake, Maine, subsequent migration to Lake Ontario from Lake Erie makes Lake Ontario unique among the Great Lakes in probably having received introductions from two distinct populations.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗