Exposure to risk factors experienced during migration is not associated with recent Vermivora warbler population trends

Abstract

Context Understanding the factors limiting populations of animals is critical for effective conservation. Determining which factors limit populations of migratory species can be especially challenging because of their reliance on multiple, often geographically distant regions during their annual cycles. Objectives We investigated whether distribution-wide variation in recent breeding population trends was more strongly associated with exposure to risk factors experienced during migration (i.e., natural and anthropogenic threats often associated with increased mortality or carry-over effects) or factors associated with breeding and nonbreeding areas in golden-winged warblers ( Vermivora chrysoptera ) and blue-winged warblers ( V. cyanoptera ), two Nearctic-Neotropical migrants experiencing regionally variable population trends. Methods We used geolocator data from 85 Vermivora warblers ( n = 90 geolocator tracks) tracked from North American breeding locations and Central American nonbreeding locations from 2013 to 2017 to determine variation in space use among populations. We assessed whether differences in space use among populations of Vermivora warblers during migration were associated with exposure to migration risk-factors and whether increased relative exposure to migration risk factors was associated with population declines at regional and subregional scales. Results Regional and subregional populations of Vermivora warblers exhibited variation in space use and exposure to anthropogenic and natural risk-factors. However, we found no evidence that recent variation in population trends of Vermivora warblers was associated with risk-factors experienced by different populations during migration. Instead, factors associated with land cover-types in breeding and nonbreeding areas were more strongly associated with recent population trends. Conclusions Understanding how populations of migratory birds are affected by factors experienced during migration is critical for their conservation. We did not find evidence that variation in exposure to migration risk-factors is associated with recent regional or subregional variation in Vermivora warbler population trends. Consequently, our results suggest that efforts to reverse ongoing population declines of Vermivora warblers may be more effective if directed toward conservation actions targeting limiting factors within the breeding and nonbreeding periods versus those directed at conditions encountered during migration. We caution that geographic variation in projected land-use change may differentially affect areas used by different populations of Vermivora warblers during migration, posing a potential threat to these species in the future.