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Land-use and socioeconomic time-series reveal legacy of redlining on present-day gentrification within a growing United States city

Home Owners’ Loan Corporation (HOLC) maps illustrated patterns of segregation in United States cites in the 1930s. As the causes and drivers of demographic and land-use segregation vary over years, these maps provide an important spatial lens in determining how patterns of segregation spatially and temporally developed during the past century. Using a high-resolution land-use time series (1937-2018) of Denver, Colorado, USA, in conjunction with 80 years of U.S. Census data, we found divergent land-use and demographics patterns across HOLC categories were both pre-existent to the establishment of HOLC mapping and continued to develop over time. Over this period, areas deemed “declining” or “hazardous” had more diverse land use compared to “desirable” areas. “Desirable” areas were dominated by one land-use type (single-family residential), while single-family residential diminished in prominence in the “declining/hazardous” areas. This divergence became more established decades after HOLC mapping, with impact to racial metrics and low-income households. We found changes in these demographic patterns also occurred between 2000 and 2019, highlighting how processes like gentrification can develop from both rapid demographic and land-use changes. This study demonstrates how the legacy of urban segregation develops over decades and can simultaneously persist in some neighborhoods while providing openings for fast-paced gentrification in others.

Colorado

Blind testing of shoreline evolution models

Beaches around the world continuously adjust to daily and seasonal changes in wave and tide conditions, which are themselves changing over longer time-scales. Different approaches to predict multi-year shoreline evolution have been implemented; however, robust and reliable predictions of shoreline evolution are still problematic even in short-term scenarios (shorter than decadal). Here we show results of a modelling competition, where 19 numerical models (a mix of established shoreline models and machine learning techniques) were tested using data collected for Tairua beach, New Zealand with 18 years of daily averaged alongshore shoreline position and beach rotation (orientation) data obtained from a camera system. In general, traditional shoreline models and machine learning techniques were able to reproduce shoreline changes during the calibration period (1999–2014) for normal conditions but some of the model struggled to predict extreme and fast oscillations. During the forecast period (unseen data, 2014–2017), both approaches showed a decrease in models’ capability to predict the shoreline position. This was more evident for some of the machine learning algorithms. A model ensemble performed better than individual models and enables assessment of uncertainties in model architecture. Research-coordinated approaches (e.g., modelling competitions) can fuel advances in predictive capabilities and provide a forum for the discussion about the advantages/disadvantages of available models.

Scientific Reports

A novel approach for directly incorporating disease into fish stock assessment: A case study with seroprevalence data

When estimating mortality from disease with fish population models, common disease surveillance data such as infection prevalence are not always informative, especially for fast-acting diseases that may go unobserved in infrequently sampled populations. In these cases, seroprevalence — the proportion of fish with measurable antibody levels in their blood — may be more informative. In cases of life-long immunity, seroprevalence data require less frequent sampling intervals than infection prevalence data and can reflect the cumulative exposure history of fish. We simulation tested the usefulness of seroprevalence data in an age-structured fish stock assessment model using viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus (VHSV) in Pacific herring ( Clupea pallasii ) as a case study. We developed a novel epidemiological model to simulate population dynamics and seroprevalence data and fitted to these data in an integrated catch-at-age model with equations that estimate age- and time-varying mortality from disease. We found that simulated seroprevalence data can provide accurate estimates of infection history and disease-associated mortality. Importantly, even models that misspecified nonstationary processes in background or disease-associated mortality, but included seroprevalence data, accurately estimated annual infection and population abundance.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences

Cacades: A reliable dissemination protocol for data collection sensor network

In this paper, we propose a fast and reliable data dissemination protocol Cascades to disseminate data from the sink(base station) to all or a subset of nodes in a data collection sensor network. Cascades makes use of the parentmonitor-children analogy to ensure reliable dissemination. Each node monitors whether or not its children have received the broadcast messages through snooping children's rebroadcasts or waiting for explicit ACKs. If a node detects a gap in its message sequences, it can fetch the missing messages from its neighbours reactively. Cascades also considers many practical issues for field deployment, such as dynamic topology, link/node failure, etc.. It therefore guarantees that a disseminated message from the sink will reach all intended receivers and the dissemination is terminated in a short time period. Notice that, all existing dissemination protocols either do not guarantee reliability or do not terminate [1, 2], which does not meet the requirement of real-time command control. We conducted experiment evaluations in both TOSSIM simulator and a sensor network testbed to compare Cascades with those existing dissemination protocols in TinyOS sensor networks, which show that Cascades achieves a higher degree of reliability, lower communication cost, and less delivery delay. ??2009 IEEE.

Conference Paper

Geomorphic change, hydrology, and hydraulics of Caulks Creek, Wildwood, Missouri

Caulks Creek is a small stream that flows through the city of Wildwood in western St. Louis County, Missouri. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the city of Wildwood, has documented historical and recent geomorphic change along Caulks Creek, simulated the hydrologic and hydraulic response of Caulks Creek to a variety of design storm scenarios, and simulated bank retreat resulting from fluvial erosion and mass failure processes. Six study reaches were selected for monitoring geomorphic change based on known locations of erosion issues documented by the city of Wildwood. Recent short-term rates and patterns of geomorphic change in the study reaches, with a focus on bank retreat, were determined from repeat terrestrial light detection and ranging surveys and field observations of the six study reaches. Historical aerial photographs of the study reaches were analyzed to determine long-term rates of bank retreat and channel widening. In general, rapid bank retreat and widening was observed at the outer banks of meander bends and where banks are unforested. Short-term bank retreat varied substantially within individual study reaches, across the study area, and during the study period from no change to as much as 16 feet of retreat between consecutive surveys (5 to 8 months). The field surveys and visual observations indicated that bank retreat occurs episodically owing to a combination of fluvial erosion and mass failure processes, as well as freezing and thawing cycles. Long-term rates of bank retreat ranged from 0.6 to 4.4 feet per year. Hydrologic and hydraulic models of Caulks Creek were used to quantify the peak, volume, and timing of the flow response and the spatial distribution of hydraulic drivers of erosion (velocity and shear stress) along Caulks Creek for design storm scenarios that represent current (as of this publication) and projected future climate. The projected climate conditions resulted in higher peak flows compared to current conditions, including 6 to 21 percent for the year 2050 and 10 to 42 percent for the year 2099 at the downstream end of the study area. Additionally, for a given design storm, projected climate change is predicted to result in faster flows with greater shear stress, as well as more within-stream variability in velocity and shear stress. Many factors affect the velocity and shear stress at a given location, but in general, somewhat fast velocities and high shear stresses tended to occur where the channel is relatively narrow and straight. The velocity and shear stress in the study reaches (known areas of widening and bank retreat) were not particularly high, at least in part owing to the relatively large widths and high sinuosity of the present-day channel in these reaches. The potential mitigating effect of adding runoff storage to the basin also was examined for a selection of design storm scenarios. Additional runoff storage was more effective at mitigating peak flows and total runoff volumes for higher-frequency, lower-intensity storms than for lower-frequency, higher-intensity storms. The additional storage also resulted in an overall reduction in velocity (by as much as 28 percent) and shear stress (by as much as 40 percent) in the study area. However, the effect of the additional storage on peak flows, total runoff volumes, velocity, and shear stress decreased with distance downstream through the study area. For the simulated scenarios, added runoff storage was effective at mitigating the increases in peak flows, total runoff volumes, velocity, and shear stress caused by projected climate change. Lastly, the bank stability and toe erosion model (BSTEM) was used to predict bank erosion and potential bank failure surfaces at five locations along Caulks Creek for a selection of design storm scenarios. The lower-frequency, higher-magnitude design storms resulted in more bank retreat than the higher-frequency, lower-magnitude design storms, though the magnitude of the difference was site dependent. Although scenarios with additional storage were not directly simulated in BSTEM, it is likely that the additional storage would result in reduced bank retreat compared to the same design storm with existing storage, based on the hydraulic modeling results for scenarios with added runoff storage.

Missouri

The relative effectiveness of empirical and physical models for simulating the dense undercurrent of pyroclastic flows under different emplacement conditions

High concentration pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) are hot avalanches of volcanic rock and gas and are among the most destructive volcanic hazards due to their speed and mobility. Mitigating the risk associated with these flows depends upon accurate forecasting of possible impacted areas, often using empirical or physical models. TITAN2D, VolcFlow, LAHARZ, and Δ H/L or energy cone models each employ different rheologies or empirical relationships and therefore differ in appropriateness of application for different types of mass flows and topographic environments. This work seeks to test different statistically- and physically-based models against a range of PDCs of different volumes, emplaced under different conditions, over different topography in order to test the relative effectiveness, operational aspects, and ultimately, the utility of each model for use in hazard assessments. The purpose of this work is not to rank models, but rather to understand the extent to which the different modeling approaches can replicate reality in certain conditions, and to explore the dynamics of PDCs themselves. In this work, these models are used to recreate the inundation areas of the dense-basal undercurrent of all 13 mapped, land-confined, Soufrière Hills Volcano dome-collapse PDCs emplaced from 1996 to 2010 to test the relative effectiveness of different computational models. Best-fit model results and their input parameters are compared with results using observation- and deposit-derived input parameters. Additional comparison is made between best-fit model results and those using empirically-derived input parameters from the FlowDat global database, which represent “forward” modeling simulations as would be completed for hazard assessment purposes. Results indicate that TITAN2D is able to reproduce inundated areas well using flux sources, although velocities are often unrealistically high. VolcFlow is also able to replicate flow runout well, but does not capture the lateral spreading in distal regions of larger-volume flows. Both models are better at reproducing the inundated area of single-pulse, valley-confined, smaller-volume flows than sustained, highly unsteady, larger-volume flows, which are often partially unchannelized. The simple rheological models of TITAN2D and VolcFlow are not able to recreate all features of these more complex flows. LAHARZ is fast to run and can give a rough approximation of inundation, but may not be appropriate for all PDCs and the designation of starting locations is difficult. The Δ H/L cone model is also very quick to run and gives reasonable approximations of runout distance, but does not inherently model flow channelization or directionality and thus unrealistically covers all interfluves. Empirically-based models like LAHARZ and Δ H/L cones can be quick, first-approximations of flow runout, provided a database of similar flows, e.g., FlowDat, is available to properly calculate coefficients or Δ H/L . For hazard assessment purposes, geophysical models like TITAN2D and VolcFlow can be useful for producing both scenario-based or probabilistic hazard maps, but must be run many times with varying input parameters. LAHARZ and Δ H/L cones can be used to produce simple modeling-based hazard maps when run with a variety of input volumes, but do not explicitly consider the probability of occurrence of different volumes. For forward modeling purposes, the ability to derive potential input parameters from global or local databases is crucial, though important input parameters for VolcFlow cannot be empirically estimated. Not only does this work provide a useful comparison of the operational aspects and behavior of various models for hazard assessment, but it also enriches conceptual understanding of the dynamics of the PDCs themselves.

Frontiers in Earth Science

Atmospheric correction intercomparison of hyperspectral and multispectral imagery over agricultural study sites

In this research effort we assess the performance of atmospheric correction-based surface reflectance (SR) retrievals from two satellite image sources, one with very high spatial resolution (VHR) (<5-m) and the other high spectral resolution (~10-nm). The VHR images are from MAXARs WorldView-3 (WV3) satellite and the high spectral resolution images are from Agenzia Spaziale Italianas (ASI) PRecursore IperSpettrale della Missione Applicativa (PRISMA) satellite. We use various atmospheric correction (AC) tools to provide intercomparisons of both AC tools and image source SR estimates. The AC tools we evaluated include Fast Line-of-sight Atmospheric Analysis of Hypercubes (FLAASH) within ENVI version 4.7, MODerate resolution atmospheric TRANsmission (MODTRAN) versions 5.3.3 and 6.0, and ASIs Level-2D correction for PRISMA imagery. Prior to correcting WV3 and PRISMA imagery to SR, we performed manual geometric corrections of imagery as both image sources were found to lack consistent georegistration. We performed comparisons at two study sites in Maryland, USA, including the United States Department of Agriculture Beltsville Agricultural Research Center (BARC) and an agricultural study site on Marylands Eastern Shore region. For the BARC site, we used WV3 imagery acquired on 2022-04-02 and PRISMA imagery acquired on 2022-04-28, focusing on evaluation of AC tool SR retrieval performance for each image source separately due to large time differences in image acquisitions where SR values are likely impacted by changing field conditions. For the Eastern Shore site, WV3 imagery was acquired on 2022-05-18 and 2022-05-30, and PRISMA imagery was acquired on 2022-05-21, allowing for quantitative evaluation of both AC tool performance and intercomparison between WV3 and PRISMA imagery. Having WV3 imagery acquired before and after PRISMA imagery allows for interpretation of major changes in field conditions and thus, identification of fields to exclude from intercomparisons. For intercomparison assessments, we computed relative percent difference (RPD) between the AC tool SR retrievals. For image source comparisons, 4-m WV3 pixels were resampled to 30-m PRISMA pixels after which 30-m WV3 bands and PRISMA spectra were compared to one another visually for both study sites. To provide rigorous SR retrieval intercomparisons between image sources, PRISMA spectra were resampled to WV3-equivalent bands for RPD computation for the Eastern Shore site. In addition to the SR retrieval intercomparisons between the AC tools, we carry out a quasi-validation where we retrieve fractional crop residue cover (fR) from the satellite image sources by calculating established spectral indices (SIs) and calibrating SIs with ground-measured fR acquired within several days of satellite overpasses. These SIs include the Cellulose Absorption Index (CAI) (Nagler et al. 2000), Shortwave Infrared Normalized Difference Residue Index (SINDRI) (Serbin et al. 2009), Lignin-Cellulose Absorption Index (LCAI) (Daughtry et al. 2005), and Lignin-Cellulose Peak Center Difference Index (LCPCDI) (Hively et al. 2021) 1-4. The most accurate crop residue SIs are generally based on shortwave infrared (SWIR) reflectance bands ranging from 2000 nm to 2400 nm that measure dry vegetation lignocellulose absorption features at 2100 and 2300 nm 1-5. For instance, the CAI identifies a 2100 nm cellulose absorption feature with a central band positioned on this feature, and two spectrally adjacent bands at 2040 and 2210 nm, while the LCAI identifies the 2300 nm lignin absorption feature compared to bands at 2165 and 2210 nm. Particular focus on intercomparisons for the SWIR region is critical as atmospheric water, carbon dioxide, and methane impact accurate SR retrieval as shown in Figure 1.a. Our final analysis concludes with the selection of the top-performing AC approach between the WV3 and PRISMA imagery (as indicated by low SR RPD) and then compares PRIMSA and 30-m WV3 imagery with original 4-m WV3 imagery to assess the degree to which spatial resolution impacts the retrieval of fR. Figure 1 provides a comparative example of WV3 and PRISMA imagery used to compute SINDRI which is then calibrated to fR using second order polynomial equations from Hively et al. (2018) 6. Figure 1 fR calibrations will be updated with newly acquired ground survey data from May 2022 to further improve the accuracy of image source and AC tool intercomparisons.

Conference Paper

Adaptable plasmonic membrane sensors for fast and reliable detection of trace low micrometer microplastics in lake water

In freshwater environments, low-micrometer microplastics (LMMPs) have captured significant attention due to their prevalence and toxicity. Yet, rapid detection of LMMPs (1–10 μm) at the single-particle level within complex freshwater matrices remains a hurdle. We developed an adaptable plasmonic membrane sensor for fast detection of individual LMMPs in eutrophic lake waters. The plasmonic membrane sensor functions both as a membrane filter and as a sensor for LMMP collection and analysis. Among the four types of membrane sensors, polycarbonate track-etch (PCTE) membrane sensors exhibit superior imaging quality for LMMPs due to their flat and homogeneous surfaces. Besides the significantly improved imaging contrast and reduced background interferences, the Raman intensity of LMMPs is enhanced by 48% ± 25% on PCTE membrane sensors compared to unmodified membranes. The increased Raman intensities of a chemical probe with an increasing gold layer thickness and a decreasing membrane pore size suggest a surface-enhanced Raman scattering effect from the membrane sensors. The membrane sensors achieve a detection limit of 1 μg/L and an ultrafast scanning time of 0.01 s for individual LMMPs across natural eutrophic lake water. The developed membrane sensors offer an adaptable tool for the swift and reliable detection of individual LMMPs in complex environmental matrices.

Environmental Science and Technology

Mycobacterium salmoniphilum sp. nov. from salmonoid fishes

The presence of mycobacteria in salmonoid fishes was first recorded by Earp, Ellis, and Ordal (1) in 1953. Acid-fast bacilli had previously been reported from other cold-blooded animals including fishes of fresh-water and marine origin; recent reviews have been presented by Vogel (2) and Parisot (3). The initiation of an intensive search for bacteria of this group revealed their widespread distribution in salmonoid fish populations. Acidfast bacilli have been demonstrated in livers and kidneys of salmon and trout in Washington, Oregon, and California, as well as from salmon taken in Alaskan waters. While the organisms are generally considered to be associated with fish of hatchery origin (4), they have also been found in young and adult fish from areas presumably supporting only wild populations. Wood and Ordal (4) indicate that the incidence of the tuberculosis-like infection is directly related to the length of time the fish are reared in the hatchery prior to release. This may result from a common hatchery practice of feeding viscera and carcasses from spawned-out adults to juvenile fish. Therefore, in many instances viable mycobacteria are present in the food of young fish.

American Review of Respiratory Disease

Effects of long-term changes in the benthic community on yellow perch in Saginaw Bay, Lake Huron

Abundance, mortality, age and growth, food habits, and energetics of a yellow perch Perca flavescens population were investigated in eutrophic Saginaw Bay, Lake Huron during May to October, 1986 to 1988, and compared population characteristics with historical data from times when eutrophic conditions were less severe. During 1986 to 1988, yellow perch were abundant, but grew slowly and experienced high natural mortality. A size threshold was present at 150 to 180 mm beyond which few individuals survived, and sex ratios became biased toward males. An energetic model suggested that yellow perch were food limited; as they increased in size they spent a greater proportion of the growing season near maintenance ration. Low feeding rates were a consequence of subsistence on small chironomid larvae. Piscivory provided little energetic relief. Historical data suggested that availability of large benthic prey such as nymphs of the burrowing mayfly Hexagenia was important to yellow perch. Yellow perch formerly consumed Hexagenia, but mayflies were extirpated from Saginaw Bay during 1953 to 1965, and never recovered. When Hexagenia was present, yellow perch growth was moderate to fast depending on population size, size thresholds were not present, and yellow perch reached large size and older age despite moderate to high fishing mortality. Decreases in yellow perch growth rates during 1952 to 1955 coincided with extirpation of Hexagenia. Fast growth of yellow perch did occur after Hexagenia became extirpated, but only when fishing mortality was high, population size was small, and some large benthic invertebrates remained. Eutrophication of Saginaw Bay appeared to affect yellow perch by changing species composition and reducing size structure of the benthic community.

Michigan

Kinetics of sorption and abiotic oxidation of arsenic(III) by aquifer materials

The fate of arsenic in groundwater depends largely on its interaction with mineral surfaces. We investigated the kinetics of As(III) oxidation by aquifer materials collected from the USGS research site at Cape Cod, MA, USA, by conducting laboratory experiments. Five different solid samples with similar specific surface areas (0.6–0.9 m 2 g −1 ) and reductively extractable iron contents (18–26 μmol m −2 ), but with varying total manganese contents (0.5–3.5 μmol m −2 ) were used. Both dissolved and adsorbed As(III) and As(V) concentrations were measured with time up to 250 h. The As(III) removal rate from solution increased with increasing solid manganese content, suggesting that manganese oxide is responsible for the oxidation of As(III). Under all conditions, dissolved As(V) concentrations were very low. A quantitative model was developed to simulate the extent and kinetics of arsenic transformation by aquifer materials. The model included: (1) reversible rate-limited adsorption of As(III) onto both oxidative and non-oxidative (adsorptive) sites, (2) irreversible rate-limited oxidation of As(III), and (3) equilibrium adsorption of As(V) onto adsorptive sites. Rate constants for these processes, as well as the total oxidative site densities were used as the fitting parameters. The total adsorptive site densities were estimated based on the measured specific surface area of each material. The best fit was provided by considering one fast and one slow site for each adsorptive and oxidative site. The fitting parameters were obtained using the kinetic data for the most reactive aquifer material at different initial As(III) concentrations. Using the same parameters to simulate As(III) and As(V) surface reactions, the model predictions were compared to observations for aquifer materials with different manganese contents. The model simulated the experimental data very well for all materials at all initial As(III) concentrations. The As(V) production rate was related to the concentrations of the free oxidative surface sites and dissolved As(III), as r As ( V ) = k ox &#x2032; [ Mn ( IV ) OH ] [ H 3 AsO 3 ] "> rAs(V)=kox′[Mn(IV)OH][H3AsO3] with apparent second-order rate constants of k ox f &#x2032; = 6.28 &#xD7; 10 - 1 "> koxf′=6.28×10-1 and k ox s &#x2032; = 1.25 &#xD7; 10 - 2 M - 1 s - 1 "> koxs′=1.25×10-2M-1s-1 for the fast and the slow oxidative sites, respectively. The As(III) removal rate decreased approximately by half for a pH increase from 4 to 7. The pH dependence was explained using the acid–base behavior of the surface oxidative sites by considering a surface p K a = 6.2 ( I = 0). In the presence of excess surface adsorptive and oxidative sites, phosphate diminished the rate of As(III) removal and As(V) production only slightly due to its interaction with the oxidative sites. The observed As(III) oxidation rate here is consistent with previous observations of As(III) oxidation over short transport distances during field-scale transport experiments. The model developed here may be incorporated into groundwater transport models to predict arsenic speciation and transport in chemically heterogeneous systems.

Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta

Landslides in the northern Colorado Front Range caused by rainfall, September 11-13, 2013

During the second week of September 2013, nearly continuous rainfall caused widespread landslides and flooding in the northern Colorado Front Range. The combination of landslides and flooding was responsible for eight fatalities and caused extensive damage to buildings, highways, and infrastructure. Three fatalities were attributed to a fast moving type of landslide called debris flow. One fatality occurred in Jamestown, and two occurred in the community of Pinebrook Hills immediately west of the City of Boulder. All major canyon roads in the northern Front Range were periodically closed between September 11 and 13, 2013. Some canyon closures were caused by undercutting of roads by landslides and flooding, and some were caused by debris flows and rock slides that deposited material on road surfaces. Most of the canyon roads, with the exceptions of U.S. Highway 6 (Clear Creek Canyon), State Highway 46/Jefferson Co. Rd. 70 (Golden Gate Canyon), and Sunshine Canyon in Boulder County, remained closed at the end of September 2013. A review of historical records in Colorado indicates that this type of event, with widespread landslides and flooding occurring over a very large region, in such a short period of time, is rare.

Colorado

Shear-wave velocity model from Rayleigh wave group velocities centered on the Sacramento/San Joaquin Delta

Rayleigh wave group velocities obtained from ambient noise tomography are inverted for an upper crustal model of the Central Valley, California, centered on the Sacramento/San Joaquin Delta. Two methods were tried; the first uses SURF96, a least-squares routine. It provides a good fit to the data, but convergence is dependent on the starting model. The second uses a genetic algorithm, whose starting model is random. This method was tried at several nodes in the model and compared to the output from SURF96. The genetic code is run five times and the variance of the output of all five models can be used to obtain an estimate of error. SURF96 produces a more regular solution mostly because it is typically run with a smoothing constraint. Models from the genetic code are generally consistent with the SURF96 code sometimes producing lower velocities at depth. The full model, calculated using SURF96, employed a 2-pass strategy, which used a variable damping scheme in the first pass. The resulting model shows low velocities near the surface in the Central Valley with a broad asymmetrical sedimentary basin located close to the western edge of the Central Valley near 122°W longitude. At shallow depths the Rio Vista Basin is found nestled between the Pittsburgh/Kirby Hills and Midland faults, but a significant basin also seems to exist to the west of the Kirby Hills fault. There are other possible correlations between fast and slow velocities in the Central Valley and geologic features such as the Stockton Arch, oil or gas producing regions and the fault-controlled western boundary of the Central Valley.

California

Comparison of prehatch C-start responses in rainbow trout and lake trout embryos by means of a tactile stimulus test

The C-start in teleost fishes, a type of startle response, mediates the ability to respond to abrupt, unexpected stimuli and is characterized by a short-latency, C-type fast start acceleration. In prehatch fish embryos, the C-start appears necessary for mechanical breakdown of the egg chorion and successful hatching by way of increased embryo movement and distribution of the hatching enzymes. In later stages, the C-start plays an important role in predator avoidance. Using tactile stimulation, we evaluated the C-start response in rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss at 170 degree-days, when 6.6% of embryos exhibited C-starts, and lake trout Salvelinus namaycush embryos at 320 degree-days, when 23% of embryos exhibited C-starts. Triplicate groups of embryos were later tested at three developmental stages: early (220 and 360 degree-days for rainbow trout and lake trout, respectively), middle (260 and 480 degree-days, respectively), and late (320 and 560 degree-days, respectively). The proportion of trout embryos exhibiting C-start increased through time, such that 100% had responded by the late stage, just prior to hatching. C-starts could be obtained by repeated stimulation, and the relative activity of the embryos (based on the number of flexures per stimulus) also increased over time. Rainbow trout and lake trout showed very similar C-start responses at parallel developmental stages, and these patterns of response were similar to those reported in other fish species.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society

Prodigious submarine landslides on the Hawaiian Ridge

The extensive area covered by major submarine mass wasting deposits on or near the Hawaiian Ridge has been delimited by systematic mapping of the Hawaiian exclusive economic zone using the side‐looking sonar system GLORIA. These surveys show that slumps and debris avalanche deposits are exposed over about 100,000 km 2 of the ridge and adjacent seafloor from Kauai to Hawaii, covering an area more than 5 times the land area of the islands. Some of the individual debris avalanches are more than 200 km long and about 5000 km 3 in volume, ranking them among the largest on Earth. The slope failures that produce these deposits begin early in the history of individual volcanoes when they are small submarine seamounts, culminate near the end of subaerial shield building, and apparently continue long after dormancy. Consequently, landslide debris is an important element in the internal structure of the volcanoes. The dynamic behavior of the volcanoes can be modulated by slope failure, and the structural features of the landslides are related to elements of the volcanoes including rift zones and fault systems. The landslides are of two general types, slumps and debris avalanches. The slumps are slow moving, wide (up to 110 km), and thick (about 10 km) with transverse blocky ridges and steep toes. The debris avalanches are fast moving, long (up to 230 km) compared to width, and thinner (0.05–2 km); they commonly have a well‐defined amphitheater at their head and hummocky terrain in the lower part. Oceanic disturbance caused by rapid emplacement of debris avalanches may have produced high‐level wave deposits (such as the 365‐m elevation Hulopoe Gravel on Lanai) that are found on several islands. Most present‐day submarine canyons were originally carved subaerially in the upper parts of debris avalanches. Subaerial canyon cutting was apparently promoted by the recently steepened and stripped slopes of the landslide amphitheaters.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth

Linking seed size and number to trait syndromes in trees

Aim Our understanding of the mechanisms that maintain forest diversity under changing climate can benefit from knowledge about traits that are closely linked to fitness. We tested whether the link between traits and seed number and seed size is consistent with two hypotheses, termed the leaf economics spectrum and the plant size syndrome, or whether reproduction represents an independent dimension related to a seed size–seed number trade-off. Location Most of the data come from Europe, North and Central America and East Asia. A minority of the data come from South America, Africa and Australia. Time period 1960–2022. Major taxa studied Trees. Methods We gathered 12 million observations of the number of seeds produced in 784 tree species. We estimated the number of seeds produced by individual trees and scaled it up to the species level. Next, we used principal components analysis and generalized joint attribute modelling (GJAM) to map seed number and size on the tree traits spectrum. Results Incorporating seed size and number into trait analysis while controlling for environment and phylogeny with GJAM exposes relationships in trees that might otherwise remain hidden. Production of the large total biomass of seeds [product of seed number and seed size; hereafter, species seed productivity (SSP)] is associated with high leaf area, low foliar nitrogen, low specific leaf area (SLA) and dense wood. Production of high seed numbers is associated with small seeds produced by nutrient-demanding species with softwood, small leaves and high SLA. Trait covariation is consistent with opposing strategies: one fast-growing, early successional, with high dispersal, and the other slow-growing, stress-tolerant, that recruit in shaded conditions. Main conclusions Earth system models currently assume that reproductive allocation is indifferent among plant functional types. Easily measurable seed size is a strong predictor of the seed number and species seed productivity. The connection of SSP with the functional traits can form the first basis of improved fecundity prediction across global forests.

Global Ecology and Biogeography

Modeling the impact of invasive species litter on conditions affecting its spread and potential regime shift

Many introduced plants pose invasion risks globally and threaten the biodiversity of native ecosystems. Such non-native plants can become invasive when they have advantages over native plants, such as having fewer natural enemies. Invasive plants often have the ability to alter ecosystem properties after they have become established, which can make it difficult to eliminate the invasive. In principle, this can cause a regime shift that may not be reversed through intense control efforts that increase mortality and reduce growth of the invasive species. Here we use spatially explicit agent-based modeling to simulate the invasion of an introduced tree species into a habitat occupied by a native species. The model describes an invasive tree with fast growth and high seed production and, in addition, produces litter that has a suppressive effect on native seedlings. These are properties, for example, shared by the invasive Melaleuca quinquenervia in southern Florida habitats. We use simulation modeling to test the following logical hypotheses: Partial suppression of native tree seedlings by the invasive tree's litter (1) will accelerate the spread of the invasive tree into native vegetation, (2) will impede efforts to control invasive spread through biocontrol, and (3) can cause a regime shift that is not reversed even if the biocontrol lowers invasive growth and reproduction to levels substantially lower than those of the native species. Additionally, (4) the earlier in the invasion biocontrol is introduced, the more effective it will be in reversing the invasion. The simulations support all four hypotheses. While these results highlight the potential for biocontrol of invasive tree species, our findings also suggest that successful elimination of positive litter feedbacks and invasive spread may critically depend on the timing of control efforts within the invasion process.

Ecological Modelling

Groundwater-flow parameter estimation and quality modeling of the Equus Beds aquifer in Kansas, U.S.A.

The salinity problems created in the Burrton area as a result of poor oil-field brine disposal practices of the past continue to be a major concern to the area depending on the Equus Beds aquifer for water, including the City of Wichita, Kansas. In this paper, an attempt is made to predict where and how fast the brine plume will move in this area, and what the average chloride concentrations in different parts of the aquifer are. In order to make such predictions, it was necessary to get a calibrated model of the groundwater-flow velocity field. Multiple regression analysis is used for parameter estimation of the steady-state groundwater-flow equation applied in the most critical area of the Equus Beds aquifer. Results of such an analysis produced a correlation coefficient of 0.992 between calculated and observed values of hydraulic head. A chloride transport modeling effort is then carried out despite some serious data deficiencies, the significance of which are evaluated through sensitivity analysis. Thus, starting with the quasi steady-state conditions of the early 1940's, it was possible to match the present chloride distribution satisfactorily. Chloride concentration predictions made for the year 2000 indicate that the quality of the Wichita well-field waters will not generally deteriorate from their present condition by that time.

Kansas