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At least 253 records · Page 14Linked to original sources

Anthropogenic enhancement of moderate-to-strong El Niño events likely contributed to drought and poor harvests in southern Africa during 2016

In December–February (DJF) of 2015/16, a strong El Niño (Niño‑3.4 SST >29°C) contributed to a severe drought over southern Africa (SA; Funk et al. 2016). A 9-million ton cereal deficit resulted in 26 mil‑ lion people in need of humanitarian assistance (SADC 2016). While SA rainfall has a well-documented nega‑ tive teleconnection with Niño‑3.4 SSTs (Hoell et al. 2015, 2017; Jury et al. 1994; Lindesay 1988; Misra 2003; Nicholson and Entekhabi 1987; Nicholson and Kim 1997; Reason et al. 2000; Rocha and Simmonds 1997), the link between climate change and El Niño remains unclear (Christensen et al. 2013) due to the large natural variability of ENSO SSTs (Wittenberg 2009), uncertainties surrounding measurements and trends (Solomon and Newman 2012), intermodel differences in ENSO representation and feedbacks (Guilyardi et al. 2012; Kim et al. 2014), and difficulties associated with quantifying ENSO strength (Cai et al. 2015).

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

Explaining local-scale species distributions: relative contributions of spatial autocorrelation and landscape heterogeneity for an avian assemblage

Understanding interactions between mobile species distributions and landcover characteristics remains an outstanding challenge in ecology. Multiple factors could explain species distributions including endogenous evolutionary traits leading to conspecific clustering and endogenous habitat features that support life history requirements. Birds are a useful taxon for examining hypotheses about the relative importance of these factors among species in a community. We developed a hierarchical Bayes approach to model the relationships between bird species occupancy and local landcover variables accounting for spatial autocorrelation, species similarities, and partial observability. We fit alternative occupancy models to detections of 90 bird species observed during repeat visits to 316 point-counts forming a 400-m grid throughout the Patuxent Wildlife Research Refuge in Maryland, USA. Models with landcover variables performed significantly better than our autologistic and null models, supporting the hypothesis that local landcover heterogeneity is important as an exogenous driver for species distributions. Conspecific clustering alone was a comparatively poor descriptor of local community composition, but there was evidence for spatial autocorrelation in all species. Considerable uncertainty remains whether landcover combined with spatial autocorrelation is most parsimonious for describing bird species distributions at a local scale. Spatial structuring may be weaker at intermediate scales within which dispersal is less frequent, information flows are localized, and landcover types become spatially diversified and therefore exhibit little aggregation. Examining such hypotheses across species assemblages contributes to our understanding of community-level associations with conspecifics and landscape composition.

PLoS ONE

USA National Phenology Network’s volunteer-contributed observations yield predictive models of phenological transitions

In support of science and society, the USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) maintains a rapidly growing, continental-scale, species-rich dataset of plant and animal phenology observations that with over 10 million records is the largest such database in the United States. Contributed voluntarily by professional and citizen scientists, these opportunistically collected observations are characterized by spatial clustering, inconsistent spatial and temporal sampling, and short temporal depth. We explore the potential for developing models of phenophase transitions suitable for use at the continental scale, which could be applied to a wide range of resource management contexts. We constructed predictive models of the onset of breaking leaf buds, leaves, open flowers, and ripe fruits – phenophases that are the most abundant in the database and also relevant to management applications – for all species with available data, regardless of plant growth habit, location, geographic extent, or temporal depth of the observations. We implemented a very basic model formulation - thermal time models with a fixed start date. Sufficient data were available to construct 107 individual species × phenophase models. Of these, fifteen models (14%) met our criteria for model fit and error and were suitable for use across the majority of the species’ geographic ranges. These findings indicate that the USA-NPN dataset holds promise for further and more refined modeling efforts. Further, the candidate models that emerged could be used to produce real-time and short-term forecast maps of the timing of such transitions to directly support natural resource management.

PLoS ONE

Relative contribution of climate and non-climate drivers in determining dynamic rates ofboreal birds at the edge of their range

The Adirondack Park in New York State contains a unique and limited distribution of boreal ecosystem types, providing habitat for a number of birds at the southern edge of their range. Species are projected to shift poleward in a warming climate, and the limited boreal forest of the Adirondacks is expected to undergo significant change in response to rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns. Here we expand upon a previous analysis to examine changes in occupancy patterns for eight species of boreal birds over a decade (2007–2016), and we assess the relative contribution of climate and non-climate drivers in determining colonization and extinction rates. Our analysis identifies patterns of declining occupancy for six of eight species, including some declines which appear to have become more pronounced since a prior analysis. Although non-climate drivers such as wetland area, connectivity, and human footprint continue to influence colonization and extinction rates, we find that for most species, occupancy patterns are best described by climate drivers. We modeled both average and annual temperature and precipitation characteristics and find stronger support for species’ responses to average climate conditions, rather than interannual climate variability. In general, boreal birds appear most likely to colonize sites that have lower levels of precipitation and a high degree of connectivity, and they tend to persist in sites that are warmer in the breeding season and have low and less variable precipitation in the winter. It is likely that these responses reflect interactions between broader habitat conditions and temperature and precipitation variables. Indirect climate influences as mediated through altered species interactions may also be important in this context. Given climate change predictions for both temperature and precipitation, it is likely that habitat structural changes over the long term may alter these relationships in the future.

New York

Contributions to the mammalogy of Chile

Collections of mammals were made during more than three years of biological investigations in Chile sponsored by the Corporación Nacional Forestal under the aegis of the Peace Corps (Smithsonian Environmental Program). Genera and species hitherto unreported for that country were taken and many useful data concerning distributional patterns of other (mostly little-known) species were gathered. These collections have also proved valuable in better understanding Chilean mammals from a taxonomic point of view and contribute knowledge of the species' natural history. Specimens are to be deposited in the (United States) National Museum of Natural History (USNM) or are to be retained by the Corporación Nacional Forestal, Avda, Bulnes 285, Depto. 401, Santiago. Numbers provided below are field numbers. A final division of specimens between the two institutions has not yet been made. A number of specimens reported here were not taken by Peace Corps personnel but have been obtained by the National Museum of Natural History from other sources. Specimens in the Field Museum of Natural History (FMNH) were used in making comparisons. Some of Fulk's (GWF) specimens are at Texas Tech University. Other are at the Servicio Agricola y Ganadero in Santiago (as are specimens of some introduced species taken by Schamberger). Reise's (DF) are at the Universidad de Chile-Concepción and in his personal collection.

Mammalia

Forecasting contributions of lake whitefish year-classes to a Lake Superior commercial fishery from estimates of yearling abundance

We developed a simple linear regression model to forecast year-class contributions of lake whitefish Coregonus clupeaformis to the commercial harvest in the Apostle Islands region of Lake Superior. We indexed year-class strength from catches of yearling fish in bottom trawl samples. Recruitment of each year-class was measured by its relative abundance in the fishery at age 6. The relation between recruitment to the commercial fishery and year-class strength indices was positive and significant ( r 2 = 0.67, P < 0.01). The model produced reliable estimates of recruitment to the fishery within the range of the regression. Projected recruitment of the 1983&ndash;1987 year-classes to the fishery in 1989-1993 should be sufficient to sustain current levels of harvest through 1993.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management

Relative contribution of stocked walleyes in Tennessee reservoirs

Since the mid-1950s, fisheries biologists with the Tennessee Wildlife Resources Agency have stocked walleyes Stizostedion vitreum in several tributary reservoirs of the Cumberland and Tennessee rivers to augment declining native stocks; however, the efficacy of these management actions has never been formally evaluated. The contribution of stocked walleyes in four Tennessee reservoirs was evaluated during 1999 and 2000 by marking fry and fingerlings through oxytetracycline (OTC) immersion. Stocking densities were 13-48 fingerlings/ha, and marking efficacy was high for fish marked as fry (mean = 98%; SE = 1.7%) and fingerlings (mean = 99%; SE = 0.6%). Nearly all (94-100%; N = 509) of the age-1 and age-2 walleyes collected in the four reservoirs were OTC-marked. Based on these findings, fingerling walleyes must be stocked annually to sustain the walleye populations in these tributary impoundments.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management

Growth, dispersal, mortality, and contribution of largemouth bass stocked into Chickamauga Lake, Tennessee

Marked fingerling largemouth bass Micropterus salmoides (both northern M. s. salmoides and Florida subspecies M. s. floridanus and their hybrid) were stocked into Chickamauga Lake, Tennessee, to enhance angling and introgress the Florida subspecies into the local gene pool. We evaluated mass marking and stocking success by sampling the stocked fish for 1 year poststocking. More than 128,000 fingerlings (35-64 mm total length) were immersed in a solution of 500 mg/L oxytetracycline (OTC) for 6 h and stocked into four embayments in the lake in spring 2002; two additional embayments served as controls and were not stocked (these embayments contained only wild, indigenous fish). In a blind test, 97% of sagittal otoliths were correctly scored as marked or unmarked. In a subsequent test, the OTC marks were clearly visible on every otolith removed from 240 OTC-treated bass held for 30 d. Age-0 largemouth bass were sampled with DC electrofishing gear at 7-19, 44-61, and 119-139 d after stocking, and sampling was conducted along 100-m transects within 1 km of the stocking sites in each embayment. Of all recaptures in the first sample, 31% occurred more than 600 m from the nearest stocking site, indicating rapid dispersal by some fish. Survival of stocked and wild age-0 largemouth bass was similar and low (4.5-6.9%) in two embayments; in the other two embayments, stocked fish survived at lower rates (0-4.3%) than wild fish (33.7-49.9%). Mean catches of all age-0 largemouth bass in the first sample were positively related to the number of fish stocked. By October 2002, the mean catch of all age-0 largemouth bass was similar among embayments. Contribution of stocked fish declined to approximately 2% (2 of 91 fish) the following spring. Cost per fingerling increased from US$0.35 at stocking to $12.00 at 140 d poststocking. Increasing the abundance of largemouth bass was not the primary objective of this stocking effort, but stocked fish will have to survive much better if managers hope to introgress Florida largemouth bass genes into the resident population genome.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management

Hierarchical, quantitative biogeographic provinces for all North American turtles and their contribution to the biogeography of turtles and the continent

Our study represents the first attempt to describe biogeographic provinces for North American (México, United States, and Canada) turtles. We analyzed three nested data sets separately: (1) all turtles, (2) freshwater turtles, and (3) aquatic turtles. We georeferenced North American turtle distributions, then we created presence–absence matrices for each of the three data sets. We used watershed unit as biogeographic units. We conducted an unweighted pair-group method with arithmetic mean clustering analysis on each Jaccard index distance matrix from our watershed species matrices to delineate biogeographic provinces. Provinces were then tested for significant differences in species compositions in a global model with the use of a one-way analysis of similarity. We conducted a best subset of environmental variables with maximum (rank) correlation with community dissimilarities that determined the best model of abiotic variables explaining province delineation (i.e., climate, topography, and stream channel). To identify which species contributed the most to province delineations, we conducted an indicator species analysis and a similarity-percentage analysis. There were 16 all-turtle provinces, 15 freshwater provinces, and 13 aquatic provinces. Species compositions delineating the provinces were explained by abiotic variables, including mean annual precipitation, mean precipitation seasonality, and diversity of streams. Province delineations correspond closely with geographical boundaries, many of which have Pleistocene origins. For example, rivers with a history of carrying glacial runoff (e.g., Arkansas, Mississippi) sometimes dissect upland provinces, especially for aquatic and semiaquatic turtles. Compared with freshwater fishes, turtles show greater sensitivity to decreased temperature with restriction of most taxa south of the last permafrost maximum. Turtles also exhibit higher sensitivity to climatic, geomorphic, and tectonic instability, with richness and endemism concentrated along the more stable Gulf of México and Atlantic (south of the last permafrost maximum) coasts. Although distribution data indicate two aquatic turtles are most cold tolerant (i.e., Chrysemys picta , Chelydra serpentina ), aquatic turtles overall show the most restriction to warmer, wetter climates. Sequential addition of semiaquatic and terrestrial turtles into analyses shows, as expected, that these taxa flesh out turtle faunas in climatically harsh (e.g., grasslands) or remote (e.g., California, Sonoran Desert) regions. The turtle assemblages of southwestern versus southeastern North America are distinct. But there is a transition zone across the semiarid plains of the Texas Gulf Coast, High Plains, and Chihuahuan Desert, including a strong boundary congruent with the Cochise Filter-Barrier. This is not a simple subdivision of Neotropical versus Nearctic taxa, as some lineages from both realms span the transition zone.

Herpetological Monographs

Estimation of contributions to population growth: A reverse-time capture-recapture approach

We consider methods for estimating the relative contributions of different demographic components, and their associated vital rates, to population growth. We identify components of the population at time i (including a component for animals not in the population at i ). For each such component we ask the following question: “What is the probability that an individual randomly selected from the population at time i + 1 was a member of this component at i ?” The estimation methods for these probabilities (γ i ) are based on capture–recapture studies of marked animal populations and use reverse-time modeling. We consider several different sampling situations and present example analyses for meadow voles, Microtus pennsylvanicus. The relationship between these γ i parameters and elasticities (and other parameters based on projection matrix asymptotics) is noted and discussed. We conclude by suggesting that model-based asymptotics be viewed as demographic theory and that direct estimation approaches be used to test this theory with data from sampled populations with marked animals.

Ecology

The soil physics contributions of Edgar Buckingham

During 1902 to 1906 as a soil physicist at the USDA Bureau of Soils (BOS), Edgar Buckingham originated the concepts of matric potential, soil–water retention curves, specific water capacity, and unsaturated hydraulic conductivity ( K ) as a distinct property of a soil. He applied a formula equivalent to Darcy's law (though without specific mention of Darcy's work) to unsaturated flow. He also contributed significant research on quasi-empirical formulas for K as a function of water content, water flow in capillary crevices and in thin films, and scaling. Buckingham's work on gas flow in soils produced paradigms that are consistent with our current understanding. His work on evaporation elucidated the concept of self-mulching and produced sound and sometimes paradoxical generalizations concerning conditions that favor or retard evaporation. Largely overshadowing those achievements, however, is that he launched a theory, still accepted today, that could predict transient water content as a function of time and space. Recently discovered documents reveal some of the arguments Buckingham had with BOS officials, including the text of a two-paragraph conclusion of his famous 1907 report on soil water, and the official letter documenting rejection of that text. Strained interpersonal relations motivated the departure of Buckingham and other brilliant physicists (N.E. Dorsey, F.H. King, and Lyman Briggs) from the BOS during 1903 to 1906. Given that Buckingham and his BOS colleagues had been rapidly developing the means of quantifying unsaturated flow, these strained relations probably slowed the advancement of unsaturated flow theory.

Soil Science Society of America Journal

Interacting vegetative and thermal contributions to water movement in desert soil

Thermally driven water-vapor flow can be an important component of total water movement in bare soil and in deep unsaturated zones, but this process is often neglected when considering the effects of soil–plant–atmosphere interactions on shallow water movement. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the coupled and separate effects of vegetative and thermal-gradient contributions to soil water movement in desert environments. The evaluation was done by comparing a series of simulations with and without vegetation and thermal forcing during a 4.7-yr period (May 2001–December 2005). For vegetated soil, evapotranspiration alone reduced root-zone (upper 1 m) moisture to a minimum value (25 mm) each year under both isothermal and nonisothermal conditions. Variations in the leaf area index altered the minimum storage values by up to 10 mm. For unvegetated isothermal and nonisothermal simulations, root-zone water storage nearly doubled during the simulation period and created a persistent driving force for downward liquid fluxes below the root zone (total net flux ~1 mm). Total soil water movement during the study period was dominated by thermally driven vapor fluxes. Thermally driven vapor flow and condensation supplemented moisture supplies to plant roots during the driest times of each year. The results show how nonisothermal flow is coupled with plant water uptake, potentially influencing ecohydrologic relations in desert environments.

Vadose Zone Journal

Contributions to Industrial-Minerals Research

Contributions to Industrial-Minerals Research, an ongoing series of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Bulletin chapters, presents research strategies, results, and updates of investigations of industrial minerals by USGS scientists and cooperators. Industrial minerals are defined as valuable nonmetallic, nonfuel geologic materials, generally rocks or minerals, used in a wide range of construction and industrial applications-for example, sand, gravel, and crushed rock used as aggregate for construction; limestone used for cement; phosphate for fertilizers and insecticides; and diatomite used for filtration, fillers, and abrasives. The term also comprises some processed materials, such as cement and metallic compounds with major utilization in nonmetallic forms. For example, titanium is commonly grouped with industrial minerals because more than 90 percent of it is sold and utilized in the form of the oxide (TiO2) rather than as Ti metal. Other metals and metallic compounds commonly grouped with industrial minerals include Mn, Cr, Fe oxides, and rare-earth elements (REEs).

Bulletin

Contributions to economic geology (short papers and preliminary reports), 1927: Part I - Metals and nonmetals except fuels

The Geological Survey's "Contributions to economic geology" are published in two parts, one including papers on metals and nonmetals except fuels and the other including papers on mineral fuels. As the subtitle indicates, most of the papers in these volumes are of three classes (1) short papers describing as thoroughly as conditions will permit areas or deposits on which no other report is likely to be prepared; (2) brief notes on mining districts or economic deposits whose examination has been merely incidental to other work; and (3) preliminary reports on economic investigations the results of which are to be published later in more detailed form. Although these papers set forth mainly the practical results of economic investigations, they include brief theoretical discussions and summary statements of conclusions if these appear to require prompt publication.

Bulletin

Did you feel it? : citizens contribute to earthquake science

Since the early 1990s, the magnitude and location of an earthquake have been available within minutes on the Internet. Now, as a result of work by the U.S. Geological Survey and with the cooperation of various regional seismic networks, people who experience an earthquake can go online and share information about its effects to help create a map of shaking intensities and damage. Such &ldquo;Community Internet Intensity Maps&rdquo; (CIIMs) contribute greatly toward the quick assessment of the scope of an earthquake emergency and provide valuable data for earthquake research.

Fact Sheet

Principal aquifers can contribute radium to sources of drinking water under certain geochemical conditions

What are the most important factors affecting dissolved radium concentrations in principal aquifers used for drinking water in the United States? Study results reveal where radium was detected and how rock type and chemical processes control radium occurrence. Knowledge of the geochemical conditions may help water-resource managers anticipate where radium may be elevated in groundwater and minimize exposure to radium, which contributes to cancer risk. Summary of Major Findings: * Concentrations of radium in principal aquifers used for drinking water throughout the United States generally were below 5 picocuries per liter (pCi/L), the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) maximum contaminant level (MCL) for combined radium - radium-226 (Ra-226) plus radium-228 (Ra-228) - in public water supplies. About 3 percent of sampled wells had combined radium concentrations greater than the MCL. * Elevated concentrations of combined radium were more common in groundwater in the eastern and central United States than in other regions of the Nation. About 98 percent of the wells that contained combined radium at concentrations greater than the MCL were east of the High Plains. * The highest concentrations of combined radium were in the Mid-Continent and Ozark Plateau Cambro-Ordovician aquifer system and the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer system. More than 20 percent of sampled wells in these aquifers had combined radium concentrations that were greater than or equal to the MCL. * Concentrations of Ra-226 correlated with those of Ra-228. Radium-226 and Ra-228 occur most frequently together in unconsolidated sand aquifers, and their presence is strongly linked to groundwater chemistry. * Three common geochemical factors are associated with the highest radium concentrations in groundwater: (1) oxygen-poor water, (2) acidic conditions (low pH), and (3) high concentrations of dissolved solids.

Fact Sheet

Continuous nitrate monitoring in groundwater and potential contribution to surface-water nitrogen loads in Mason County, Illinois

Illinois has some of the most productive farmland in the country. The use of fertilizers to improve crop production has increased, which has resulted in an increase in the concentration of nitrogen in many streams and aquifers. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Illinois Environmental Protection Agency, is continuously monitoring (one reading every 15 minutes) the concentration of nitrate plus nitrite, as nitrogen, in a groundwater well and assessing the potential contribution to surface-water nitrogen loads. Continuous monitoring of the nitrate concentration allows for the collection of a larger dataset in comparison to periodic or event-based sampling. This fact sheet describes the data collection methods, describes the overall experimental design, and displays data collected for the study. The analysis of continuous data improves understanding of the fate and transport of nitrate.

Illinois