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At least 217 records · Page 12Linked to original sources

Suitability of river delta sediment as proppant, Missouri and Niobrara Rivers, Nebraska and South Dakota, 2015

Sediment management is a challenge faced by reservoir managers who have several potential options, including dredging, for mitigation of storage capacity lost to sedimentation. As sediment is removed from reservoir storage, potential use of the sediment for socioeconomic or ecological benefit could potentially defray some costs of its removal. Rivers that transport a sandy sediment load will deposit the sand load along a reservoir-headwaters reach where the current of the river slackens progressively as its bed approaches and then descends below the reservoir water level. Given a rare combination of factors, a reservoir deposit of alluvial sand has potential to be suitable for use as proppant for hydraulic fracturing in unconventional oil and gas development. In 2015, the U.S. Geological Survey began a program of researching potential sources of proppant sand from reservoirs, with an initial focus on the Missouri River subbasins that receive sand loads from the Nebraska Sand Hills. This report documents the methods and results of assessments of the suitability of river delta sediment as proppant for a pilot study area in the delta headwaters of Lewis and Clark Lake, Nebraska and South Dakota. Results from surface-geophysical surveys of electrical resistivity guided borings to collect 3.7-meter long cores at 25 sites on delta sandbars using the direct-push method to recover duplicate, 3.8-centimeter-diameter cores in April 2015. In addition, the U.S. Geological Survey collected samples of upstream sand sources in the lower Niobrara River valley. At the laboratory, samples were dried, weighed, washed, dried, and weighed again. Exploratory analysis of natural sand for determining its suitability as a proppant involved application of a modified subset of the standard protocols known as American Petroleum Institute (API) Recommended Practice (RP) 19C. The RP19C methods were not intended for exploration-stage evaluation of raw materials. Results for the washed samples are not directly applicable to evaluations of suitability for use as fracture sand because, except for particle-size distribution, the API-recommended practices for assessing proppant properties (sphericity, roundness, bulk density, and crush resistance) require testing of specific proppant size classes. An optical imaging particle-size analyzer was used to make measurements of particle-size distribution and particle shape. Measured samples were sieved to separate the dominant-size fraction, and the separated subsample was further tested for roundness, sphericity, bulk density, and crush resistance. For the bulk washed samples collected from the Missouri River delta, the geometric mean size averaged 0.27 millimeters (mm), 80 percent of the samples were predominantly sand in the API 40/70 size class, and 17 percent were predominantly sand in the API 70/140 size class. Distributions of geometric mean size among the four sandbar complexes were similar, but samples collected from sandbar complex B were slightly coarser sand than those from the other three complexes. The average geometric mean sizes among the four sandbar complexes ranged only from 0.26 to 0.30 mm. For 22 main-stem sampling locations along the lower Niobrara River, geometric mean size averaged 0.26 mm, an average of 61 percent was sand in the API 40/70 size class, and 28 percent was sand in the API 70/140 size class. Average composition for lower Niobrara River samples was 48 percent medium sand, 37 percent fine sand, and about 7 percent each very fine sand and coarse sand fractions. On average, samples were moderately well sorted. Particle shape and strength were assessed for the dominant-size class of each sample. For proppant strength, crush resistance was tested at a predetermined level of stress (34.5 megapascals [MPa], or 5,000 pounds-force per square inch). To meet the API minimum requirement for proppant, after the crush test not more than 10 percent of the tested sample should be finer than the precrush dominant-size class. For particle shape, all samples surpassed the recommended minimum criteria for sphericity and roundness, with most samples being well-rounded. For proppant strength, of 57 crush-resistance tested Missouri River delta samples of 40/70-sized sand, 23 (40 percent) were interpreted as meeting the minimum criterion at 34.5 MPa, or 5,000 pounds-force per square inch. Of 12 tested samples of 70/140-sized sand, 9 (75 percent) of the Missouri River delta samples had less than 10 percent fines by volume following crush testing, achieving the minimum criterion at 34.5 MPa. Crush resistance for delta samples was strongest at sandbar complex A, where 67 percent of tested samples met the 10-percent fines criterion at the 34.5-MPa threshold. This frequency was higher than was indicated by samples from sandbar complexes B, C, and D that had rates of 50, 46, and 42 percent, respectively. The group of sandbar complex A samples also contained the largest percentages of samples dominated by the API 70/140 size class, which overall had a higher percentage of samples meeting the minimum criterion compared to samples dominated by coarser size classes; however, samples from sandbar complex A that had the API 40/70 size class tested also had a higher rate for meeting the minimum criterion (57 percent) than did samples from sandbar complexes B, C, and D (50, 43, and 40 percent, respectively). For samples collected along the lower Niobrara River, of the 25 tested samples of 40/70-sized sand, 9 samples passed the API minimum criterion at 34.5 MPa, but only 3 samples passed the more-stringent criterion of 8 percent postcrush fines. All four tested samples of 70/140 sand passed the minimum criterion at 34.5 MPa, with postcrush fines percentage of at most 4.1 percent. For two reaches of the lower Niobrara River, where hydraulic sorting was energized artificially by the hydraulic head drop at and immediately downstream from Spencer Dam, suitability of channel deposits for potential use as fracture sand was confirmed by test results. All reach A washed samples were well-rounded and had sphericity scores above 0.65, and samples for 80 percent of sampled locations met the crush-resistance criterion at the 34.5-MPa stress level. A conservative lower-bound estimate of sand volume in the reach A deposits was about 86,000 cubic meters. All reach B samples were well-rounded but sphericity averaged 0.63, a little less than the average for upstream reaches A and SP. All four samples tested passed the crush-resistance test at 34.5 MPa. Of three reach B sandbars, two had no more than 3 percent fines after the crush test, surpassing more stringent criteria for crush resistance that accept a maximum of 6 percent fines following the crush test for the API 70/140 size class. Relative to the crush-resistance test results for the API 40/70 size fraction of two samples of mine output from Loup River settling-basin dredge spoils near Genoa, Nebr., four of five reach A sample locations compared favorably. The four samples had increases in fines composition of 1.6–5.9 percentage points, whereas fines in the two mine-output samples increased by an average 6.8 percentage points.

Nebraska, South Dakota

Disinfection protocols for herpetofaunal pathogens

The spread of disease-causing pathogens is a major threat to amphibians and reptiles worldwide (Converse and Greene 2005; Picco et al. 2007; Picco and Collins 2008; St-Amour et al. 2008; O’Hanlon et al. 2018; Scheele et al. 2019). The World Organisation for Animal Health’s global list of notifiable animal diseases includes herpetofaunal diseases caused by infection with Ranavirus spp. (RV) and two chytrid fungi, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) and B. salamandrivorans (Bsal; WOAH 2023). Scientists began testing the efficacy of disinfection protocols even before human-assisted transmission of these pathogens was documented (Johnson et al. 2003; Johnson and Speare 2003; Brem et al. 2007; Bryan et al. 2009), and now guidance exists to determine the appropriate biosecurity measures as personal gear moves between habitats, construction equipment moves between project areas, and investigators handle multiple animals within a population (Phillot et al. 2010; Gray et al. 2017, 2018; Julian et al. 2020; Olson et al. 2021). People who are engaged in educational, recreational, commercial, or professional activities in wetlands and aquatic habitats play an important role in helping prevent the spread of pathogens and should know how and when to employ appropriate disinfecting procedures. In particular, working groups and regional chapters of Partners in Amphibian and Reptile Conservation (PARC) have developed a variety of educational materials on biosecurity and disinfection for a wide audience (e.g., PARC 2023). Herein, we provide the instructions for the disinfection of field equipment that were recently revised by the Emerging Disease Working Group of Northeast PARC (NEPARC 2022). The impetus for revision was to inform field personnel of the use of a stronger bleach concentration (ca. 10× stronger) that is needed for effectiveness against Bsal (Van Rooij et al. 2017). This is important for regions where Bsal is currently known to occur (e.g., central Europe) as well as regions where it is presumed absent but could arrive at any time (e.g., North America)

Herpetological Review

NCWin — A Component Object Model (COM) for processing and visualizing NetCDF data

NetCDF (Network Common Data Form) is a data sharing protocol and library that is commonly used in large-scale atmospheric and environmental data archiving and modeling. The NetCDF tool described here, named NCWin and coded with Borland C + + Builder, was built as a standard executable as well as a COM (component object model) for the Microsoft Windows environment. COM is a powerful technology that enhances the reuse of applications (as components). Environmental model developers from different modeling environments, such as Python, JAVA, VISUAL FORTRAN, VISUAL BASIC, VISUAL C + +, and DELPHI, can reuse NCWin in their models to read, write and visualize NetCDF data. Some Windows applications, such as ArcGIS and Microsoft PowerPoint, can also call NCWin within the application. NCWin has three major components: 1) The data conversion part is designed to convert binary raw data to and from NetCDF data. It can process six data types (unsigned char, signed char, short, int, float, double) and three spatial data formats (BIP, BIL, BSQ); 2) The visualization part is designed for displaying grid map series (playing forward or backward) with simple map legend, and displaying temporal trend curves for data on individual map pixels; and 3) The modeling interface is designed for environmental model development by which a set of integrated NetCDF functions is provided for processing NetCDF data. To demonstrate that the NCWin can easily extend the functions of some current GIS software and the Office applications, examples of calling NCWin within ArcGIS and MS PowerPoint for showing NetCDF map animations are given.

Cartographic Journal

Comparison of Water Years 2004-05 and Historical Water-Quality Data, Upper Gunnison River Basin, Colorado

Population growth and changes in land use have the potential to affect water quality and quantity in the upper Gunnison River Basin. In 1995, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Bureau of Land Management, City of Gunnison, Colorado River Water Conservation District, Crested Butte South Metropolitan District, Gunnison County, Hinsdale County, Mount Crested Butte Water and Sanitation District, National Park Service, Town of Crested Butte, Upper Gunnison River Water Conservancy District, and Western State College, established a water-quality monitoring program in the upper Gunnison River Basin to characterize current water-quality conditions and to assess the effects of increased urban development and other land-use changes on water quality. The monitoring network has evolved into two groups of stations - stations that are considered long term and stations that are considered rotational. The long-term stations are monitored to assist in defining temporal changes in water quality (how conditions may change over time). The rotational stations are monitored to assist in the spatial definition of water-quality conditions (how conditions differ throughout the basin) and to address local and short-term concerns. Some stations in the rotational group were changed beginning in water year 2007. Annual summaries of the water-quality data from the monitoring network provide a point of reference for discussions regarding water-quality monitoring in the upper Gunnison River Basin. This summary includes data collected during water years 2004 and 2005. The introduction provides a map of the sampling sites, definitions of terms, and a one-page summary of selected water-quality conditions at the network stations. The remainder of the summary is organized around the data collected at individual stations. Data collected during water years 2004 and 2005 are compared to historical data, State water-quality standards, and Federal water-quality guidelines. Data were collected following USGS protocols.

Data Series

Comparison of 2006-2007 Water Years and Historical Water-Quality Data, Upper Gunnison River Basin, Colorado

Population growth and changes in land use have the potential to affect water quality and quantity in the upper Gunnison River basin. In 1995, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Bureau of Land Management, City of Gunnison, Colorado River Water Conservation District, Crested Butte South Metropolitan District, Gunnison County, Hinsdale County, Mount Crested Butte Water and Sanitation District, National Park Service, Town of Crested Butte, Upper Gunnison River Water Conservancy District, and Western State College established a water-quality monitoring program in the upper Gunnison River basin to characterize current water-quality conditions and to assess the effects of increased urban development and other land-use changes on water quality. The monitoring network has evolved into two groups of stations - stations that are considered long term and stations that are considered rotational. The long-term stations are monitored to assist in defining temporal changes in water quality (how conditions may change over time). The rotational stations are monitored to assist in the spatial definition of water-quality conditions (how conditions differ throughout the basin) and to address local and short-term concerns. Some stations in the rotational group were changed beginning in water year 2007. Annual summaries of the water-quality data from the monitoring network provide a point of reference for discussions regarding water-quality monitoring in the upper Gunnison River basin. This summary includes data collected during water years 2006 and 2007. The introduction provides a map of the sampling sites, definitions of terms, and a one-page summary of selected water-quality conditions at the network stations. The remainder of the summary is organized around the data collected at individual stations. Data collected during water years 2006 and 2007 are compared to historical data, State water-quality standards, and Federal water-quality guidelines. Data were collected following USGS protocols (U.S. Geological Survey, variously dated).

Data Series

Evaluation of EPT macroinvertebrate metrics in small streams located within the non-connected stormwater management region of Kansas City, Missouri, USA

During 2012-2014, we evaluated macroinvertebrate communities in streams draining the non-connected stormwater management region (Municipal Separate Storm Sewer System, or MS4) within the Kansas City metropolitan area utilizing the Missouri bioassessment protocols. Trends in aquatic life impairment status based on Missouri's Macroinvertebrate Stream Condition Index (MSCI), as well as richness and abundance of EPT indicator metrics (Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, Trichoptera), were compared between rural control sites and both transitional and urban stream sites representing varying stages of land use conversion. As compared to non-urban control sites, EPT taxa richness was significantly lower at MS4 urban sites during all three years (p = 0.007 – 0.013) and MS4 transitional sites during one of three years (p=0.48). EPT abundance (%) was significantly lower at MS4 urban sites during all years (p = 0.008 – 0.013) and MS4 transitional sites during one of three years (p=0.34). Mean EPT abundances ranged between 0.6% - 10.3% at urban MS4 sites, and always exceeded 18% at control sites. Both EPT richness and abundance were lower at the MS4 control site but means for EPT and other core metrics at this site were most often similar to non-urban control sites based on analysis of variance (ANOVA). MS4 transitional sites with active development in their watersheds were partially-supporting in their impairment status, and EPT metrics had lower means and generally more variability than control sites. Temporal trends indicate non-urban control and MS4 control sites consistently meet fully-supporting impairment status based on overall MSCI scores, but no study sites currently meet regional expectations (as defined by state reference streams) for either of the EPT metrics. Results indicate that Missouri and Kansas biocriteria for both EPT metrics are not consistently being met at any stream sites in the Kansas City metro area, including fully-supporting control sites and MS4 streams that receive stormwater runoff in watersheds with urban development that is well-established or currently transitioning to urban or suburban land uses.

Missouri

Volcanic unrest and hazard communication in Long Valley Volcanic Region, California

The onset of volcanic unrest in Long Valley Caldera, California, in 1980 and the subsequent fluctuations in unrest levels through May 2016 illustrate: (1) the evolving relations between scientists monitoring the unrest and studying the underlying tectonic/magmatic processes and their implications for geologic hazards, and (2) the challenges in communicating the significance of the hazards to the public and civil authorities in a mountain resort setting. Circumstances special to this case include (1) the sensitivity of an isolated resort area to media hype of potential high-impact volcanic and earthquake hazards and its impact on potential recreational visitors and the local economy, (2) a small permanent population (~8000), which facilitates face-to-face communication between scientists monitoring the hazard, civil authorities, and the public, and (3) the relatively frequent turnover of people in positions of civil authority, which requires a continuing education effort on the nature of caldera unrest and related hazards. Because of delays associated with communication protocols between the State and Federal governments during the onset of unrest, local civil authorities and the public first learned that the U.S. Geological Survey was about to release a notice of potential volcanic hazards associated with earthquake activity and 25-cm uplift of the resurgent dome in the center of the caldera through an article in the Los Angeles Times published in May 1982. The immediate reaction was outrage and denial. Gradual acceptance that the hazard was real required over a decade of frequent meetings between scientists and civil authorities together with public presentations underscored by frequently felt earthquakes and the onset of magmatic CO 2 emissions in 1990 following a 11-month long earthquake swarm beneath Mammoth Mountain on the southwest rim of the caldera. Four fatalities, one on 24 May 1998 and three on 6 April 2006, underscored the hazard posed by the CO 2 emissions. Initial response plans developed by county and state agencies in response to the volcanic unrest began with “The Mono County Volcano Contingency Plan” and “Plan Caldera” by the California Office of Emergency Services in 1982–84. They subsequently became integrated in the regularly updated County Emergency Operation Plan. The alert level system employed by the USGS also evolved from the three-level “Notice-Watch-Warning” system of the early 1980s through a five level color-code to the current “Normal-Advisory-Watch-Warning” ground-based system in conjunction with the international 4-level aviation color-code for volcanic ash hazards. Field trips led by the scientists proved to be a particularly effective means of acquainting local residents and officials with the geologically active environment in which they reside. Relative caldera quiescence from 2000 through 2011 required continued efforts to remind an evolving population that the hazards posed by the 1980–2000 unrest persisted. Renewed uplift of the resurgent dome from 2011 to 2014 was accompanied by an increase in low-level earthquake activity in the caldera and beneath Mammoth Mountain and continues through May 2016. As unrest levels continue to wax and wane, so will the communication challenges.

Book chapter

Comparison of 2002 Water Year and Historical Water-Quality Data, Upper Gunnison River Basin, Colorado

Introduction: Population growth and changes in land-use practices have the potential to affect water quality and quantity in the upper Gunnison River basin. In 1995, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with local sponsors, City of Gunnison, Colorado River Water Conservation District, Crested Butte South Metropolitan District, Gunnison County, Mount Crested Butte Water and Sanitation District, National Park Service, Town of Crested Butte, and Upper Gunnison River Water Conservancy District, established a water-quality monitoring program in the upper Gunnison River basin to characterize current water-quality conditions and to assess the effects of increased urban development and other land-use changes on water quality. The monitoring network has evolved into two groups of stations, stations that are considered as long term and stations that are rotational. The long-term stations are monitored to assist in defining temporal changes in water quality (how conditions have changed over time). The rotational stations are monitored to assist in the spatial definition of water-quality conditions (how conditions differ throughout the basin) and to address local and short term concerns. Another group of stations (rotational group 2) will be chosen and sampled beginning in water year 2004. Annual summaries of the water-quality data from the monitoring network provide a point of reference for discussions regarding water-quality sampling in the upper Gunnison River basin. This summary includes data collected during water year 2002. The introduction provides a map of the sampling locations, definitions of terms, and a one-page summary of selected water-quality conditions at the network stations. The remainder of the summary is organized around the data collected at individual stations. Data collected during water year 2002 are compared to historical data (data collected for this network since 1995), state water-quality standards, and federal water-quality guidelines. Data were collected during water year 2002 following USGS protocols (U.S. Geological Survey, variously dated).

Data Series

Breeding dynamics of gopher frog metapopulations over 10 years

Populations of amphibians that breed in isolated, ephemeral wetlands may be particularly sensitive to breeding and recruitment rates, which can be influenced by dynamic and difficult-to-predict extrinsic factors. The gopher frog Rana capito is a declining species currently proposed for listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, as well as one of many pond-breeding amphibians of conservation concern in the southeastern United States. To represent gopher frog breeding dynamics, we applied an occupancy modeling framework that integrated multiple data sets collected across the species' range to 1) estimate the influence of climate, habitat, and other factors on wetland-specific seasonal breeding probabilities; and 2) use those estimates to characterize seasonal, annual, and regional breeding patterns over a 10-y period. Breeding probability at a wetland was positively influenced by seasonal precipitation (Standardized Precipitation Index) and negatively influenced by fish presence. We found some evidence that the amount of suitable habitat surrounding a wetland was positively correlated with breeding probability during drought conditions. The percentage of sampled wetlands ( N = 192) predicted to have breeding varied seasonally, annually, and regionally across the study. Within-year temporal patterns of breeding differed across the range: in most locations north of Florida, peaks of breeding occurred in winter and spring months; whereas breeding was more dispersed throughout the year in Florida. Peaks of breeding across the 10-y period often occurred during or in the season following high rainfall events (e.g., hurricanes). These results have direct applications for site-level management that aims to increase successful breeding opportunities of gopher frogs and other associated pond-breeding amphibians, including monitoring protocol and intensity, removal of fish, and improving terrestrial habitat conditions surrounding wetlands (e.g., via tree or shrub removal and prescribed fire). The results also have implications for better-informed management through the closer alignment of breeding activity monitoring with predicted seasonal peaks. Furthermore, estimates of breeding frequency can be incorporated into population viability analyses to inform forthcoming assessments of extinction risk and designation of the species' conservation status by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South C

Assessment of the American woodcock singing-ground survey zone timing and coverage

The American woodcock ( Scolopax minor ; hereafter, woodcock) Singing-Ground Survey (SGS) was developed to inform management decisions by monitoring changes in the relative abundance of woodcock. The timing of the designated survey windows was designed to count resident woodcock while minimizing counting of migrating woodcock. Since the implementation of the SGS in 1968, concerns over survey protocols that may bias data have been raised and investigated; however, the extent of survey coverage and the timing of the survey window zones have not been critically investigated. We used 3 years of data collected from male and female woodcock marked with satellite tags to assess the extent of survey coverage and the timing of the SGS survey windows relative to presence of woodcock. SGS coverage encompassed the majority of woodcock breeding-period sites (locations where marked woodcock returned to in spring) within the U.S. (n = 17, 92%) and approximately half of the breeding-period sites in Canada (n = 6, 43%). Thirteen of the 37 monitored woodcock with known breeding-period site arrival dates (35%) were migrating through a survey zone during an active survey window, all in the northernmost 4 of 5 SGS zones. Thirteen woodcock arrived at breeding-period sites after the start of surveys, and all but one of these was located in the northernmost 2 zones. The combination of migration through a SGS zone during the survey window and arrival at breeding-period sites after the beginning of the survey window in northern zones may result in the SGS weighing too heavily the contribution of routes in the southern portion of the primary breeding range, while weighing too lightly the routes in the northern portion of the primary breeding range. We suggest that additional information is necessary to evaluate whether current survey windows are sufficient, or whether they need to be changed.

Conference Paper

Professional conduct of scientists during volcanic crises

Stress during volcanic crises is high, and any friction between scientists can distract seriously from both humanitarian and scientific effort. Friction can arise, for example, if team members do not share all of their data, if differences in scientific interpretation erupt into public controversy, or if one scientist begins work on a prime research topic while a colleague with longer-standing investment is still busy with public safety work. Some problems arise within existing scientific teams; others are brought on by visiting scientists. Friction can also arise between volcanologists and public officials. Two general measures may avert or reduce friction: (a) National volcanologic surveys and other scientific groups that advise civil authorities in times of volcanic crisis should prepare, in advance of crises, a written plan that details crisis team policies, procedures, leadership and other roles of team members, and other matters pertinent to crisis conduct. A copy of this plan should be given to all current and prospective team members. (b) Each participant in a crisis team should examine his or her own actions and contribution to the crisis effort. A personal checklist is provided to aid this examination. Questions fall generally in two categories: Are my presence and actions for the public good? Are my words and actions collegial, i.e., courteous, respectful, and fair? Numerous specific solutions to common crisis problems are also offered. Among these suggestions are: (a) choose scientific team leaders primarily for their leadership skills; (b) speak publicly with a single scientific voice, especially when forecasts, warnings, or scientific disagreements are involved; (c) if you are a would-be visitor, inquire from the primary scientific team whether your help would be welcomed, and, in general, proceed only if the reply is genuinely positive; (d) in publications, personnel evaluations, and funding, reward rather than discourage teamwork. Models are available from the fields of particle physics and human genetics, among others.

Bulletin of Volcanology

Water-the Nation's Fundamental Climate Issue A White Paper on the U.S. Geological Survey Role and Capabilities

Of all the potential threats posed by climatic variability and change, those associated with water resources are arguably the most consequential for both society and the environment (Waggoner, 1990). Climatic effects on agriculture, aquatic ecosystems, energy, and industry are strongly influenced by climatic effects on water. Thus, understanding changes in the distribution, quantity and quality of, and demand for water in response to climate variability and change is essential to planning for and adapting to future climatic conditions. A central role of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) with respect to climate is to document environmental changes currently underway and to develop improved capabilities to predict future changes. Indeed, a centerpiece of the USGS role is a new Climate Effects Network of monitoring sites. Measuring the climatic effects on water is an essential component of such a network (along with corresponding effects on terrestrial ecosystems). The USGS needs to be unambiguous in communicating with its customers and stakeholders, and with officials at the Department of the Interior, that although modeling future impacts of climate change is important, there is no more critical role for the USGS in climate change science than that of measuring and describing the changes that are currently underway. One of the best statements of that mission comes from a short paper by Ralph Keeling (2008) that describes the inspiration and the challenges faced by David Keeling in operating the all-important Mauna Loa Observatory over a period of more than four decades. Ralph Keeling stated: 'The only way to figure out what is happening to our planet is to measure it, and this means tracking changes decade after decade and poring over the records.' There are three key ideas that are important to the USGS in the above-mentioned sentence. First, to understand what is happening requires measurement. While models are a tool for learning and testing our understanding, they are not a substitute for observations. The second key idea is that measurement needs to be done over a period of many decades. When viewing hydrologic records over time scales of a few years to a few decades, trends commonly appear. However, when viewed in the context of many decades to centuries, these short-term trends are recognized as being part of much longer term oscillations. Thus, while we might want to initiate monitoring of important aspects of our natural resources, the data that will prove to be most useful in the next few years are those records that already have long-term continuity. USGS streamflow and groundwater level data are excellent examples of such long-term records. These measured data span many decades, follow standard protocols for collection and quality assurance, and are stored in a database that provides access to the full period of record. The third point from the Keeling quote relates to the notion of ?poring over the records.? Important trends will not generally jump off the computer screen at us. Thoughtful analyses are required to get past a number of important but confounding influences in the record, such as the role of seasonal variation, changes in water management, or influences of quasi-periodic phenomena, such as El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). No organization is better situated to pore over the records than the USGS because USGS scientists know the data, quality-assure the data, understand the factors that influence the data, and have the ancillary information on the watersheds within which the data are collected. To fulfill the USGS role in understanding climatic variability and change, we need to continually improve and strengthen two of our key capabilities: (1) preserving continuity of long-term water data collection and (2) analyzing and interpreting water data to determine how the Nation's water resources are changing. Understanding change in water resources

Circular

Comparison of 2008-2009 water years and historical water-quality data, upper Gunnison River Basin, Colorado

Population growth and changes in land use have the potential to affect water quality and quantity in the upper Gunnison River Basin. In 1995, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Bureau of Land Management, City of Gunnison, Colorado River Water Conservation District, Crested Butte South Metropolitan District, Gunnison County, Hinsdale County, Mount Crested Butte Water and Sanitation District, National Park Service, Town of Crested Butte, U.S. Forest Service, Upper Gunnison River Water Conservancy District, and Western State College, established a water-quality monitoring program in the upper Gunnison River Basin to characterize current water-quality conditions and to assess the effects of increased urban development and other land-use changes on water quality. The monitoring network has evolved into two groups of sites: (1) sites that are considered long term and (2) sites that are considered rotational. Data from the long-term sites assist in defining temporal changes in water quality (how conditions may change over time). The rotational sites assist in the spatial definition of water-quality conditions (how conditions differ throughout the basin) and address local and short-term concerns. Biannual summaries of the water-quality data from the monitoring network provide a point of reference for stakeholder discussions regarding the location and purpose of water-quality monitoring sites in the upper Gunnison River Basin. This report compares and summarizes the data collected during water years 2008 and 2009 to the historical data available at these sites. The introduction provides a map of the sampling sites, definitions of terms, and a one-page summary of selected water-quality conditions at the network sites. The remainder of the report is organized around the data collected at individual sites. Data collected during water years 2008 and 2009 are compared to historical data, State water-quality standards, and Federal water-quality guidelines. A seasonal Kendall test for trend analysis is completed when there is sufficient data (typically >5 years) at the station. Data were collected following USGS protocols.

Colorado

Data for a regional approach to the development of an effects-based nutrient criterion for wadable streams

States are required by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to establish nutrient criteria (concentrations of nutrients above which water quality is deteriorated) as part of their water-quality regulations. A study of wadable streams in the Mid-Atlantic Region was undertaken by the U.S. Geological Survey, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and the Maryland Department of the Environment, with assistance from the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection, to help define current concentrations of nutrients in streams with the goal of associating different nutrient-concentration levels with their effects on water quality. During the summers of 2004 and 2005, diel concentrations of dissolved oxygen, nutrient concentrations, concentrations of chlorophyll a in attached algae, and algal-community structure were measured at 46 stream sites in Maryland, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and West Virginia. Data from this work can be used by individual state agencies to define nutrient criteria. Quality-control measures for the study included submitting blank samples, duplicate samples, and reference samples for analysis of nutrients, total organic carbon, chlorophyll a, and algal biomass. Duplicate and split samples were submitted for periphyton identifications. Three periphyton split samples were sent to an independent lab for a check on periphyton identifications. Neither total organic carbon nor nutrients were detected in blank samples. Concentrations of nutrients and total organic carbon were similar for most duplicate sample pairs, with the exception of a duplicate pair from Western Run. Concentrations of ammonia plus organic nitrogen for this duplicate pair differed by as much as 34 percent. Total organic carbon for the duplicate pair from Western Run differed by 102 percent. The U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Laboratory performance on the only valid reference sample submitted was excellent; the relative percent difference values were no larger than 5 percent for any constituent analyzed. For periphyton identifications, duplicate samples had Jaccard Coefficient of Community values slightly greater than 0.5. This indicates the periphyton sampling protocol used provided a sample that was only moderately reproducible. Jaccard Coefficients for three periphyton samples split between two independent labs were 0.2, 0.11, and 0.08. These very low values suggest a poor concurrence on species identifications performed by the two labs. As a result of these quality-control samples, the slides prepared for diatom identifications were sent to the Academy of Natural Sciences for re-identification. Caution is urged when interpreting periphyton-community information from this study. This report and the raw data from the study are available online at http://pubs.usgs.gov/ds257

Maryland, Pennsylvania, Virginia, West Virginia

Prospects of pollinator community surveillance using terrestrial environmental DNA metagenetics

Current pollinator survey methods exhibit bias, require highly-trained practitioners, and are difficult to scale to large sample sizes. High-throughput sequencing of terrestrial eDNA could provide a complementary tool for studying pollinator communities, but eDNA methods have not been extensively evaluated. We conducted metagenetic analysis of whole arthropod community eDNA from 20 flower and seven honey bee-collected pollen samples and compared eDNA-derived data with traditional netting-based surveys of the pollinator communities present during sampling. We focused our analysis on Anthophila (bees) and detected eight bee genera belonging to four families across COI, 16S, and 28S markers. Results varied considerably by marker and eDNA substrate. Detected bee genera were plausible for the study system and about 43 percent of total bee genera were detected with both eDNA and net-based surveys, though netting resulted in more detections across a wider diversity of genera. Data from sequenced controls suggest that eDNA identifications were unlikely to have resulted from cross-contamination. Our results demonstrate that bee communities can be documented with eDNA techniques and that the choice of marker and substrate substantially influences detection. Future improvements to our methods are required, but eDNA surveys appear well-suited to characterize diverse pollinator communities and provide novel sampling perspectives within plant-pollinator networks. Future efforts should focus on improving the selection of markers available for pollinator eDNA metagenetics, addressing taxonomic gaps within reference sequence databases and optimizing sampling and eDNA isolation protocols. We anticipate that such improvements are highly feasible and that eDNA will be a useful tool to those who study pollinators and plant-pollinator interactions.

Environmental DNA

Using near-term forecasts and uncertainty partitioning to inform prediction of oligotrophic lake cyanobacterial density

Near-term ecological forecasts provide resource managers advance notice of changes in ecosystem services, such as fisheries stocks, timber yields, or water quality. Importantly, ecological forecasts can identify where there is uncertainty in the forecasting system, which is necessary to improve forecast skill and guide interpretation of forecast results. Uncertainty partitioning identifies the relative contributions to total forecast variance introduced by different sources, including specification of the model structure, errors in driver data, and estimation of current states (initial conditions). Uncertainty partitioning could be particularly useful in improving forecasts of highly variable cyanobacterial densities, which are difficult to predict and present a persistent challenge for lake managers. As cyanobacteria can produce toxic and unsightly surface scums, advance warning when cyanobacterial densities are increasing could help managers mitigate water quality issues. Here, we fit 13 Bayesian state-space models to evaluate different hypotheses about cyanobacterial densities in a low nutrient lake that experiences sporadic surface scums of the toxin-producing cyanobacterium, Gloeotrichia echinulata . We used data from several summers of weekly cyanobacteria samples to identify dominant sources of uncertainty for near-term (1- to 4-week) forecasts of G. echinulata densities. Water temperature was an important predictor of cyanobacterial densities during model fitting and at the 4-week forecast horizon. However, no physical covariates improved model performance over a simple model including the previous week's densities in 1-week-ahead forecasts. Even the best fit models exhibited large variance in forecasted cyanobacterial densities and did not capture rare peak occurrences, indicating that significant explanatory variables when fitting models to historical data are not always effective for forecasting. Uncertainty partitioning revealed that model process specification and initial conditions dominated forecast uncertainty. These findings indicate that long-term studies of different cyanobacterial life stages and movement in the water column as well as measurements of drivers relevant to different life stages could improve model process representation of cyanobacteria abundance. In addition, improved observation protocols could better define initial conditions and reduce spatial misalignment of environmental data and cyanobacteria observations. Our results emphasize the importance of ecological forecasting principles and uncertainty partitioning to refine and understand predictive capacity across ecosystems.

New Hampshire

Louisiana Barrier Island Comprehensive Monitoring (BICM) Program Summary Report: Data and Analyses 2006 through 2010

The Barrier Island Comprehensive Monitoring (BICM) program was implemented under the Louisiana Coastal Area Science and Technology (LCA S&T) office as a component of the System Wide Assessment and Monitoring (SWAMP) program. The BICM project was developed by the State of Louisiana (Coastal Protection Restoration Authority [CPRA], formerly Department of Natural Resources [DNR]) to complement other Louisiana coastal monitoring programs such as the Coastwide Reference Monitoring System-Wetlands (CRMS-Wetlands) and was a collaborative research effort by CPRA, University of New Orleans (UNO), and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The goal of the BICM program was to provide long-term data on the barrier islands of Louisiana that could be used to plan, design, evaluate, and maintain current and future barrier-island restoration projects. The BICM program used both historical and newly acquired (2006 to 2010) data to assess and monitor changes in the aerial and subaqueous extent of islands, habitat types, sediment texture and geotechnical properties, environmental processes, and vegetation composition. BICM datasets included aerial still and video photography (multiple time series) for shoreline positions, habitat mapping, and land loss; light detection and ranging (lidar) surveys for topographic elevations; single-beam and swath bathymetry; and sediment grab samples. Products produced using BICM data and analyses included (but were not limited to) storm-impact assessments, rate of shoreline and bathymetric change, shoreline-erosion and accretion maps, high-resolution elevation maps, coastal-shoreline and barrier-island habitat-classification maps, and coastal surficial-sediment characterization maps. Discussions in this report summarize the extensive data-collection efforts and present brief interpretive analyses for four coastal Louisiana geographic regions. In addition, several coastal-wide and topical themes were selected that integrate the data and analyses within a broader coastal context: (1) barrier-shoreline evolution driven by rapid relative sea-level rise (RSLR), (2) hurricane impacts to the Chandeleur Islands and likelihood of island recovery, (3) impact of tropical storms on barrier shorelines, (4) Barataria Bay tidal-inlet management, and (5) habitat changes related to RSLR. The final theme addresses potential future goals of the BICM program, including rotational annual to semi-decadal monitoring, proposed new-data collection, how to incorporate technological advances with previous data-collection and monitoring protocols, and standardizing methods and quality-control assessments for continued coastal monitoring and restoration.

Louisiana

Yellowstone grizzly bear investigations: Annual report of the Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team, 2001

The contents of this Annual Report summarize results of monitoring and research from the 2001 field season. The report also contains a summary of nuisance grizzly bear ( Ursus arctos horribilis ) management actions. In addition to our normal monitoring, we completed an array of studies addressing the potential impacts of winter recreation on denning grizzly bears. This research was in response to a lawsuit filed against the Gallatin National Forest and subsequent need to develop a biological assessment addressing effects of snowmobile use on grizzly bears (Chemy 2001). Research results were also used by the National Park Service for a biological assessment and winter use plan (U.S. Department of the Interior 2001). The Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team (IGBST) was able to use existing data collected from collared bears to address several issues and data needs for both agencies. Denning chronology (Haroldson et al. 2002), denning areas (Podruzny et al. 2002), and grizzly distribution (Schwartz et al. 2002) were all addressed. Information from these studies was presented at the International Association for Bear Research and Management (IBA) in Jackson Hole, Wyoming in 2001, and all 3 manuscripts have been officially accepted for publication in the journal Ursus . Abstracts are attached to this report (Appendices A, B. and C). Additionally, members of the study team participated in a workshop held by the National Park Service to develop monitoring protocols addressing the impacts of snowmobiles on wildlife (Graves and Reams 2001). The study team has also been working on issues associated with counts of unduplicated females with cubs-of-the-year (COY). These counts are used to establisha minimum population size, which is then used to establish mortality thresholds for the Recovery Plan (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service [USFWS) 1993). Efforts by the Study Team to calculate more statistically sound estimates of population size have been underway for sometime. Eberhardt and Knight (1996) applied a Peterson-type capturemark-recapture estimator to unduplicated counts, and Boyce et al. (1999) recommended a maximum likelihood method. These methods assumed equal sightability of families, which was unrealistic for the Yellowstone population. Consequently, Boyce et al. (2001) recommended using a negative binomial distribution but found that they obtained reasonable results only when the coefficient of variation among sightings was assumed to be constant overtime. This assumption is also difficult to justify. Recent work by the study team (Keating et al. 2002) evaluated the application of 7 nonparametric estimators to assess their performance in determining the number of females with COY in a given year. This work identified 2 estimators that performed well using Monte Carlo simulations over a range of sampling conditions deemed plausible for the Yellowstone population: Chao's estimator (Chao 1984) and the sample coverage estimator (Chao and Lee 1992, Lee and Chao 1994). This work was presented at the IBA meeting in Jackson and the manuscript has been accepted in the journal Ursus . An abstract of this work is attached to this annual report (Appendix D). We are currently refining the application of these techniques to expand the predicted number of females with COY into a total population estimate. We anticipate completion of that work in 2002 or 2003.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming