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Proceedings of the Klamath Basin Science Conference, Medford, Oregon, February 1-5, 2010

This report presents the proceedings of the Klamath Basin Science Conference (February 2010). A primary purpose of the meeting was to inform and update Klamath Basin stakeholders about areas of scientific progress and accomplishment during the last 5 years. Secondary conference objectives focused on the identification of outstanding information needs and science priorities as they relate to whole watershed management, restoration ecology, and possible reintroduction of Pacific salmon associated with the Klamath Basin Restoration Agreement (KBRA). Information presented in plenary, technical, breakout, and poster sessions has been assembled into chapters that reflect the organization, major themes, and content of the conference. Chapter 1 reviews the major environmental issues and resource management and other stakeholder needs of the basin. Importantly, this assessment of information needs included the possibility of large-scale restoration projects in the future and lessons learned from a case study in South Florida. Other chapters (2-6) summarize information about key components of the Klamath Basin, support conceptual modeling of the aquatic ecosystem (Chapter 7), and synthesize our impressions of the most pressing science priorities for management and restoration. A wealth of information was presented at the conference and this has been captured in chapters addressing environmental setting and human development of the basin, hydrology, watershed processes, fishery resources, and potential effects from climate change. The final chapter (8) culminates in a discussion of many specific research priorities that relate to and bookend the broader management needs and restoration goals identified in Chapter 1. In many instances, the conferees emphasized long-term and process-oriented approaches to watershed science in the basin as planning moves forward.

California, Oregon

Technological innovations in aquaculture

Technology in aquaculture has expanded at a phenomenal rate during the last 50 to 100 years. Based on both this past progress and the present technological advances being made in our society, it is reasonable to expect aquaculturists to profit from the rapid technological advances being made in both hardware and biological systems. These advances will result as spinoffs from medicine, from analytical chemistry, and most importantly, from the evolution of new consumer products such as auto-focus cameras, electronic watches, and microprocessor-monitored automobiles. We can expect to use economical, reliable instrumentation capable of environmental monitoring for predictive purposes and instrumentation that will contain alarm and control circuits. Genetic engineering will result in biological organisms that produce hormones, drugs, and other biological materials as well as detoxify pollutants on demand. When we as aquaculturists identify the need for a product, that product will be developed.

Fisheries

Identifying policy-relevant indicators for assessing landscape vegetation patterns to inform planning and management on multiple use public lands

Understanding the structure and composition of landscapes can empower agencies to effectively manage public lands for multiple uses while sustaining land health. Many landscape metrics exist, but they are not often used in public land decision-making. Our objectives were to (1) develop and (2) apply a process for identifying a core set of indicators that public land managers can use to understand landscape-level resource patterns on and around public lands. We first developed a process for identifying indicators that are grounded in policy, feasible to quantify using existing data and resources, and useful for managers. We surveyed landscape monitoring efforts by other agencies, gathered science and agency input on monitoring goals, and quantified the prevalence of potential indicators in agency land health standards to identify five landscape indicators: amount, distribution, patch size, structural connectivity, and diversity of vegetation types. We then conducted pilot applications in four bureau of land management (BLM) field offices in Arizona, California, and Colorado to refine procedures for quantifying the indicators and assess the utility of the indicators for managers. Results highlighted the dominance of upland and the limited extent of riparian/wetland vegetation communities, moderate connectivity of priority vegetation patches, and lower diversity of native vegetation types on BLM compared to non-BLM lands. Agency staff can use the indicators to inform the development of quantitative resource management objectives in land use plans, evaluate progress in meeting those objectives, quantify potential impacts of proposed actions, and as a foundation for an all-lands approach to landscape-level management across public lands.

Environmental Management

A systematic approach towards the identification and protection of vulnerable marine ecosystems

The United Nations General Assembly in 2006 and 2009 adopted resolutions that call for the identification and protection of vulnerable marine ecosystems (VMEs) from significant adverse impacts of bottom fishing. While general criteria have been produced, there are no guidelines or protocols that elaborate on the process from initial identification through to the protection of VMEs. Here, based upon an expert review of existing practices, a 10-step framework is proposed: (1) Comparatively assess potential VME indicator taxa and habitats in a region; (2) determine VME thresholds; (3) consider areas already known for their ecological importance; (4) compile information on the distributions of likely VME taxa and habitats, as well as related environmental data; (5) develop predictive distribution models for VME indicator taxa and habitats; (6) compile known or likely fishing impacts; (7) produce a predicted VME naturalness distribution (areas of low cumulative impacts); (8) identify areas of higher value to user groups; (9) conduct management strategy evaluations to produce trade-off scenarios; (10) review and re-iterate, until spatial management scenarios are developed that fulfil international obligations and regional conservation and management objectives. To date, regional progress has been piecemeal and incremental. The proposed 10-step framework combines these various experiences into a systematic approach.

Marine Science

Nonsalmonid gas bubble trauma investigations

From 2020 to 2023, a new spill program was implemented to aid the downstream passage of juvenile salmonids at mainstem dams on the Snake and Columbia rivers. Under this program, the total dissolved gas (TDG) cap was increased to 125% and monitoring of nonsalmonids for gas bubble trauma (GBT) became a requirement. The primary objective of this work and report was to measure the incidence and severity of GBT in nonsalmonids resulting from increased juvenile salmonid passage spill and associated levels of TDG during the spring spill period in 2023. Nonsalmonids were collected downstream from Bonneville, McNary, Ice Harbor, and Lower Granite dams and examined for the incidence and severity of GBT in 2023. Fish were collected at each location weekly (3 April to 20 June) during the spring spill period by backpack electrofishing and beach seining. Washington and Oregon State water quality agencies established minimum and target sample sizes for monitoring, but the minimum sample size of 50 fish and target sample size of 100 fish were not met in all weeks at individual projects due to high water flows and resulting low fish collections. Collected fish were examined for GBT according to the criteria and protocol established for the regional smolt monitoring program (SMP). TDG levels were often high relative to the 10-year average. GBT incidence rates and severity (according to SMP criteria) were low to moderate in most weeks. We found no apparent relationship between GBT incidence and TDG due to exposure history and interspecies susceptibility to elevated TDG that could not be quantified. GBT incidence rates exceeded the 15% threshold on two occasions below Ice Harbor Dam, triggering a reduction in spill under the State water quality standards. In the weeks immediately following the spill reductions, GBT incidence was zero or relatively low at this location. Sculpin (genus Cottus ) was the main species collected at all locations. As in past years, we did find GBT in non-SMP protocol areas, particularly in sculpin. The variability in GBT incidence rates is likely due to variability in environmental conditions, fish exposure history to TDG, and species sensitivity to TDG. Many of the species encountered in shallow shoreline habitats rear for extended times and probably do not seek the water depths that would help them reduce the effects of exposure to elevated TDG through depth compensation. Limited systematic sampling of TDG in the tailraces of each project showed that TDG can vary spatially within the tailrace and with percentage of water spilled. We investigated GBT progression and mortality in sculpin and threespine stickleback ( Gasterosteus aculeatus ) in laboratory experiments (Chapter Two of this report). Fish were tested at 120%, 125%, and 130% TDG. We found that sculpin are more sensitive to TDG than stickleback and that GBT and associated mortality progress faster in sculpin than in stickleback. GBT prevalence and severity increased through time at all TDG levels tested, but relationships between severity and exposure time were weak or nonexistent. GBT and mortality progressed more rapidly as TDG increased in both species. The SMP criteria used to rank GBT did not fully capture the incidence and severity of GBT in sculpin and stickleback compared to using criteria based on all areas of the fish. The lateral line, body, dorsal fin, and pectoral fins were common locations of GBT in sculpin at 120 and 125% TDG, but signs were more prevalent in all areas at 130% TDG. In stickleback, GBT was most common on the head and body at all TDG levels tested. Positive buoyancy of fish with severe GBT was observed in both species and may have consequences for similarly impaired fish in the wild. The proximate cause of GBT-related death in sculpin and stickleback was bubbles in the gills and heart, but unlike in other species, bubbles appeared rapidly just before the point of death. Our results help fill the information void GBT progression and mortality for sculpin and stickleback.

Oregon, Washington

Projected status of the Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens) in the twenty-first century

Extensive and rapid losses of sea ice in the Arctic have raised conservation concerns for the Pacific walrus ( Odobenus rosmarus divergens ), a large pinniped inhabiting arctic and subarctic continental shelf waters of the Chukchi and Bering seas. We developed a Bayesian network model to integrate potential effects of changing environmental conditions and anthropogenic stressors on the future status of the Pacific walrus population at four periods through the twenty-first century. The model framework allowed for inclusion of various sources and levels of knowledge, and representation of structural and parameter uncertainties. Walrus outcome probabilities through the century reflected a clear trend of worsening conditions for the subspecies. From the current observation period to the end of century, the greatest change in walrus outcome probabilities was a progressive decrease in the outcome state of robust and a concomitant increase in the outcome state of vulnerable. The probabilities of rare and extirpated states each progressively increased but remained <10% through the end of the century. The summed probabilities of vulnerable, rare, and extirpated (P(v,r,e)) increased from a current level of 10% in 2004 to 22% by 2050 and 40% by 2095. The degree of uncertainty in walrus outcomes increased monotonically over future periods. In the model, sea ice habitat (particularly for summer/fall) and harvest levels had the greatest influence on future population outcomes. Other potential stressors had much smaller influences on walrus outcomes, mostly because of uncertainty in their future states and our current poor understanding of their mechanistic influence on walrus abundance.

Polar Biology

Estuarine sediment transport by gravity-driven movement of the nepheloid layer, Long Island Sound

Interpretation of sidescan-sonar imagery provides evidence that down-slope gravity-driven movement of the nepheloid layer constitutes an important mode of transporting sediment into the basins of north-central Long Island Sound, a major US East Coast estuary. In the Western Basin, this transport mechanism has formed dendritic drainage systems characterized by branching patterns of low backscatter on the seafloor that exceed 7.4 km in length and progressively widen down-slope, reaching widths of over 0.6 km at their southern distal ends. Although much smaller, dendritic patterns of similar morphology are also present in the northwestern part of the Central Basin. Because many contaminants display affinities for adsorption onto fine-grained sediments, and because the Sound is affected by seasonal hypoxia, mechanisms and dispersal pathways by which inorganic and organic sediments are remobilized and transported impact the eventual fate of the contaminants and environmental health of the estuary.

Connecticut, Massachussetts, New York

Disturbance hydrology: Preparing for an increasingly disturbed future

This special issue is the result of several fruitful conference sessions on disturbance hydrology, which started at the 2013 AGU Fall Meeting in San Francisco and have continued every year since. The stimulating presentations and discussions surrounding those sessions have focused on understanding both the disruption of hydrologic functioning following discrete disturbances, as well as the subsequent recovery or change within the affected watershed system. Whereas some hydrologic disturbances are directly linked to anthropogenic activities, such as resource extraction, the contributions to this special issue focus primarily on those with indirect or less pronounced human involvement, such as bark-beetle infestation, wildfire, and other natural hazards. However, human activities are enhancing the severity and frequency of these seemingly natural disturbances, thereby contributing to acute hydrologic problems and hazards. Major research challenges for our increasingly disturbed planet include the lack of continuous pre- and post-disturbance monitoring, hydrologic impacts that vary spatially and temporally based on environmental and hydroclimatic conditions, and the preponderance of overlapping or compounding disturbance sequences. In addition, a conceptual framework for characterizing commonalities and differences among hydrologic disturbances is still in its infancy. In this introduction to the special issue, we advance the fusion of concepts and terminology from ecology and hydrology to begin filling this gap. We briefly explore some preliminary approaches for comparing different disturbances and their hydrologic impacts, which provides a starting point for further dialogue and research progress.

Water Resources Research

Investigating lake-area dynamics across a permafrost-thaw spectrum using airborne electromagnetic surveys and remote sensing time-series data in Yukon Flats, Alaska

Lakes in boreal lowlands cycle carbon and supply an important source of freshwater for wildlife and migratory waterfowl. The abundance and distribution of these lakes are supported, in part, by permafrost distribution, which is subject to change. Relationships between permafrost thaw and lake dynamics remain poorly known in most boreal regions. Here, new airborne electromagnetic (AEM) data collected during June 2010 and February 2016 were used to constrain deep permafrost distribution. AEM data were coupled with Landsat-derived lake surface-area data from 1979 through 2011 to inform temporal lake behavior changes in the 35 500- km 2 Yukon Flats ecoregion of Alaska. Together, over 1500 km of AEM data, and roughly 30 years of Landsat data were used to explore processes that drive lake dynamics across a variety of permafrost thaw states not possible in studies conducted with satellite imagery or field measurements alone. Clustered time-series data identified lakes with similar temporal dynamics. Clusters possessed similarities in lake permanence (i.e. ephemeral versus perennial), subsurface permafrost distribution, and proximity to rivers and streams. Of the clustered lakes, ~66% are inferred to have at least intermittent connectivity with other surface-water features, ~19% are inferred to have shallow subsurface connectivity to other surface water features that served as a low-pass filter for hydroclimatic fluctuations, and ~15% appear to be isolated by surrounding permafrost (i.e. no connectivity). Integrated analysis of AEM and Landsat data reveals a progression from relatively synchronous lake dynamics among disconnected lakes in the most spatially continuous, thick permafrost to quite high spatiotemporal heterogeneity in lake behavior among variably-connected lakes in regions with notably less continuous permafrost. Variability can be explained by the preferential development of thawed permeable gravel pathways for lateral water redistribution in this area. The general spatial progression in permafrost thaw state and lake area behavior may be extended to the temporal dimension. However, extensive permafrost thaw, beyond what is currently observed, is expected to promote ubiquitous subsurface connectivity, eventually evolving to a state of increased lake synchronicity.

Alaska

Impact of AMD on water quality in critical watershed in the Hudson River drainage basin: Phillips Mine, Hudson Highlands, New York

A sulfur and trace element enriched U-Th-laced tailings pile at the abandoned Phillips Mine in Garrison, New York, releases acid mine drainage (AMD, generally pH < 3, minimum pH 1.78) into the first-order Copper Mine Brook (CMB) that drains into the Hudson River. The pyrrhotite-rich Phillips Mine is located in the Highlands region, a critical water source for the New York metro area. A conceptual model for derivation/dissolution, sequestration, transport and dilution of contaminants is proposed. The acidic water interacts with the tailings, leaching and dissolving the trace metals. AMD evaporation during dry periods concentrates solid phase trace metals and sulfate, forming melanterite (FeSO 4 .7H 2 O) on sulfide-rich tailings surfaces. Wet periods dissolve these concentrates/precipitates, releasing stored acidity and trace metals into the CMB. Sediments along CMB are enriched in iron hydroxides which act as sinks for metals, indicating progressive sequestration that correlates with dilution and sharp rise in pH when mine water mixes with tributaries. Seasonal variations in metal concentrations were partly attributable to dissolution of the efflorescent salts with their sorbed metals and additional metals from surging acidic seepage induced by precipitation.

New York

Regional effects of agricultural conservation practices on nutrient transport in the Upper Mississippi River Basin

Despite progress in the implementation of conservation practices, related improvements in water quality have been challenging to measure in larger river systems. In this paper we quantify these downstream effects by applying the empirical U.S. Geological Survey water-quality model SPARROW to investigate whether spatial differences in conservation intensity were statistically correlated with variations in nutrient loads. In contrast to other forms of water quality data analysis, the application of SPARROW controls for confounding factors such as hydrologic variability, multiple sources and environmental processes. A measure of conservation intensity was derived from the USDA-CEAP regional assessment of the Upper Mississippi River and used as an explanatory variable in a model of the Upper Midwest. The spatial pattern of conservation intensity was negatively correlated ( p = 0.003) with the total nitrogen loads in streams in the basin. Total phosphorus loads were weakly negatively correlated with conservation ( p = 0.25). Regional nitrogen reductions were estimated to range from 5 to 34% and phosphorus reductions from 1 to 10% in major river basins of the Upper Mississippi region. The statistical associations between conservation and nutrient loads are consistent with hydrological and biogeochemical processes such as denitrification. The results provide empirical evidence at the regional scale that conservation practices have had a larger statistically detectable effect on nitrogen than on phosphorus loadings in streams and rivers of the Upper Mississippi Basin.

Environmental Science & Technology

The continuing medical mystery of Balkan Endemic Nephropathy

Balkan Endemic Nephropathy (BEN) is a disease of subtle onset and insidious progression that typically occurs between the 4th and 6th decade in long‐resident individuals in highly specific geographic locations of the Balkan region and affects 1 &ndash; 5% of the population. Though it does not follow typical Mendelian genetics, there is a familial pattern of occurrence. Although residents may live only a few kilometers apart, certain locations are highly affected while others close by, even as close as across the road, remain unscathed. Because of this geographic selectivity scientists have searched for an environmental cause. It is thought that exposure to the toxic plant Aristolochia clematitis is to blame. Genotoxic N‐heterocyclic or polycyclic aromatic containing coal water leachates entering cultivated soil and drinking water are also a possible cause due to the proximity and predictive power of endemic foci to coal deposits. Evidence for Ochratoxin A fungal poisoning also exists. High levels of phthalates have been measured in BEN‐endemic drinking water. BEN is a probably a multifactorial disease that may result from exposure through some of above‐mentioned environmental sources, with genetic factors contributing. This review will discuss recent research concerning the etiology, potential therapies for the treatment of nephropathy, and unexplored research directions for this chronic kidney disease.

Journal of Rare Diseases

Integrating principles and tools of decision science into value-driven watershed planning for compensatory mitigation

Several environmental policies strive to restore impaired ecosystems and could benefit from a consistent and transparent process — co-developed with key stakeholders — to prioritize impaired ecosystems for restoration activities. The Clean Water Act, for example, establishes reallocation mechanisms to transfer ecosystem services from sites of disturbance to compensation sites to offset aquatic resource functions that are unavoidably lost through land development. However, planning for the prioritization of compensatory mitigation areas is often hampered by decision-making processes that fall into a myopic decision frame because they are not co-produced with stakeholders. In this study, we partnered with domain experts from the North Carolina Division of Mitigation Services (NCDMS) to co-develop a real-world decision framework to prioritize catchments by potential for the development of mitigation projects following principles of a structured decision-making process and knowledge co-production. Following an iterative decision analysis cycle, domain experts revised foundational components of the decision framework and progressively added complexity and realism as they gained additional insights or more information became available. Through the course of facilitated in-person and remote interactions, the co-development of a decision framework produced three main ‘breakthroughs’ from the perspective of the stakeholder group: a) recognition of the problem as a multi-objective decision driven by several values in addition to biogeophysical goals (e.g., functional uplift; restoring or enhancing lost functionality of ecosystems), b) that the decision comprises a linked and sequential planning-to-implementation process, and c) future risk associated with land-use and climate change must be considered. We also present an interactive tool for ‘on-the-fly’ assessment of alternatives and tradeoff analysis, allowing domain experts to quickly test, react to, and revise prioritization strategies. The decision framework described in this study is not limited to the prioritization of compensatory mitigation activities across North Carolina, but rather serves as a framework to prioritize a wide range of restoration, conservation, and resource allocation activities in similar environmental contexts across the nation.

Ecological Applications

Vegetation community recovery on restored bottomland hardwood forests in northeast Indiana, USA

Vegetation communities in restored bottomland hardwood forests in northeast Indiana were studied 6–21 years after restoration to assess progress toward restoration objectives. The study focused on four sites that were restored to compensate for resource injuries after contaminant releases. The restored sites were compared with four reference-site conditions, including crops (prerestoration condition), old field communities representing a no-management alternative, locally sampled second-growth mature forests, and forest community types described by the US National Vegetation Classification (USNVC), which represent ideal or defining conditions of recognized vegetation communities. Fixed-area plots provided data on field-sampled environmental variables, vegetation, soil, and hydrological conditions for crops, old fields, restored areas, and mature forests. The USNVC database provided quantitative data for three historically and geographically relevant reference forest community types for comparison with the sampled communities. Results of nonmetric multidimensional scaling based on species cover revealed clear gradients relating to site age and canopy development. Along those gradients, restored areas demonstrated increasing similarity to mature forest reference communities in terms of floristic composition. Specifically, the floristic quality of restored areas was significantly greater than that of crops and old fields. Furthermore, soil health measurements of physical, chemical, and hydrological conditions indicated significant improvements in restored site soils compared with prerestoration conditions represented by cropland soils. Descriptions and data from the USNVC provided ecological context for restoration target conditions and facilitated the assessment of restoration recovery along a trajectory from starting conditions to those target conditions. Descriptions by USNVC also helped identify deviations from the intended restoration objectives (e.g., invasive species recruitment) and potential adaptive management actions to return sites to their intended trajectories. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2024;00:1–22. Published 2024. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

Indiana

A pan-Precambrian link between deglaciation and environmental oxidation

Despite a continuous increase in solar luminosity to the present, Earth’s glacial record appears to become more frequent, though less severe, over geological time. At least two of the three major Precambrian glacial intervals were exceptionally intense, with solid evidence for widespread sea ice on or near the equator, well within a “Snowball Earth” zone produced by ice-albedo runaway in energy-balance models. The end of the first unambiguously low-latitude glaciation, the early Paleoproterozoic Makganyene event, is associated intimately with the first solid evidence for global oxygenation, including the world’s largest sedimentary manganese deposit. Subsequent low-latitude deglaciations during the Cryogenian interval of the Neoproterozoic Era are also associated with progressive oxidation, and these young Precambrian ice ages coincide with the time when basal animal phyla were diversifying. However, specifically testing hypotheses of cause and effect between Earth’s Neoproterozoic biosphere and glaciation is complicated because large and rapid True Polar Wander events appear to punctuate Neoproterozoic time and may have episodically dominated earlier and later intervals as well, rendering geographic reconstruction and age correlation challenging except for an exceptionally well-defined global paleomagnetic database.

Open-File Report

Inoculation of bats with European Geomyces destructans supports the novel pathogen hypothesis for the origin of white-nose syndrome

White-nose syndrome (WNS) is an emerging disease of hibernating bats associated with cutaneous infection by the fungus Geomyces destructans ( Gd ), and responsible for devastating declines of bat populations in eastern North America. Affected bats appear emaciated and one hypothesis is that they spend too much time out of torpor during hibernation, depleting vital fat reserves required to survive the winter. The fungus has also been found at low levels on bats throughout Europe but without mass mortality. This finding suggests that Gd is either native to both continents but has been rendered more pathogenic in North America by mutation or environmental change, or that it recently arrived in North America as an invader from Europe. Thus, a causal link between Gd and mortality has not been established and the reason for its high pathogenicity in North America is unknown. Here we show that experimental inoculation with either North American or European isolates of Gd causes WNS and mortality in the North American bat, Myotis lucifugus . In contrast to control bats, individuals inoculated with either isolate of Gd developed cutaneous infections diagnostic of WNS, exhibited a progressive increase in the frequency of arousals from torpor during hibernation, and were emaciated after 3–4 mo. Our results demonstrate that altered torpor-arousal cycles underlie mortality from WNS and provide direct evidence that Gd is a novel pathogen to North America from Europe.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Climate-induced glacier and snow loss imperils alpine stream insects

Climate warming is causing rapid loss of glaciers and snowpack in mountainous regions worldwide. These changes are predicted to negatively impact the habitats of many range-restricted species, particularly endemic, mountaintop species dependent on the unique thermal and hydrologic conditions found only in glacier-fed and snowmelt-driven alpine streams. Though progress has been made, existing understanding of the status, distribution, and ecology of alpine aquatic species, particularly in North America, is lacking, thereby hindering conservation and management programs. Two aquatic insects – the meltwater stonefly Lednia tumana and the glacier stonefly Zapada glacier – were recently proposed for listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act due to climate-change-induced habitat loss. Using a large dataset (272 streams, 482 total sites) with high-resolution climate and habitat information, we describe the distribution, status, and key environmental features that limit L. tumana and Z. glacier across the northern Rocky Mountains. Lednia tumana was detected in 113 streams (175 sites) within Glacier National Park (GNP) and surrounding areas. The probability of L. tumana occurrence increased with cold stream temperatures and close proximity to glaciers and permanent snowfields. Similarly, densities of L. tumana declined with increasing distance from stream source. Zapada glacier was only detected in 10 streams (20 sites), six in GNP and four in mountain ranges up to ~600 km southwest. Our results show that both L. tumana and Z. glacier inhabit an extremely narrow distribution, restricted to short sections of cold, alpine streams often below glaciers predicted to disappear over the next two decades. Climate warming-induced glacier and snow loss clearly imperils the persistence of L. tumana and Z. glacier throughout their ranges, highlighting the role of mountaintop aquatic invertebrates as sentinels of climate change in mid-latitude regions.

Global Change Biology

Dissolved oxygen analysis, TMDL model comparison, and particulate matter shunting&mdash;Preliminary results from three model scenarios for the Klamath River upstream of Keno Dam, Oregon

Efforts are underway to identify actions that would improve water quality in the Link River to Keno Dam reach of the Upper Klamath River in south-central Oregon. To provide further insight into water-quality improvement options, three scenarios were developed, run, and analyzed using previously calibrated CE-QUAL-W2 hydrodynamic and water-quality models. Additional scenarios are under development as part of this ongoing study. Most of these scenarios evaluate changes relative to a "current conditions" model, but in some cases a "natural conditions" model was used that simulated the reach without the effect of point and nonpoint sources and set Upper Klamath Lake at its Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) targets. These scenarios were simulated using a model developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Watercourse Engineering, Inc. for the years 2006&ndash;09, referred to here as the "USGS model." Another model of the reach was developed by Tetra Tech, Inc. for years 2000 and 2002 to support the Klamath River TMDL process; that model is referred to here as the "TMDL model." The three scenarios described in this report included (1) an analysis of whether this reach of the Upper Klamath River would be in compliance with dissolved oxygen standards if sources met TMDL allocations, (2) an application of more recent datasets to the TMDL model with comparison to results from the USGS model, and (3) an examination of the effect on dissolved oxygen in the Klamath River if particulate material were stopped from entering Klamath Project diversion canals. Updates and modifications to the USGS model are in progress, so in the future these scenarios will be reanalyzed with the updated model and the interim results presented here will be superseded. Significant findings from this phase of the investigation include: * The TMDL analysis used depth-averaged dissolved oxygen concentrations from model output for comparison with dissolved oxygen standards. The Oregon dissolved oxygen standards do not specify whether the numeric criteria are based on depth-averaged dissolved oxygen concentration; this was an interpretation of the standards rule by the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality (ODEQ). In this study, both depth-averaged and volume-averaged dissolved oxygen concentrations were calculated from model output. Results showed that modeled depth-averaged concentrations typically were lower than volume-averaged dissolved oxygen concentrations because depth-averaging gives a higher weight to small volume areas near the channel bottom that often have lower dissolved oxygen concentrations. Results from model scenarios in this study are reported using volume-averaged dissolved oxygen concentrations. * Under all scenarios analyzed, violations of the dissolved oxygen standard occurred most often in summer. Of the three dissolved oxygen criteria that must be met, the 30-day standard was violated most frequently. Under the base case (current conditions), fewer violations occurred in the upstream part of the reach. More violations occurred in the down-stream direction, due in part to oxygen demand from the decay of algae and organic matter from Link River and other inflows. * A condition in which Upper Klamath Lake and its Link River outflow achieved Upper Klamath Lake TMDL water-quality targets was most effective in reducing the number of violations of the dissolved oxygen standard in the Link River to Keno Dam reach of the Klamath River. The condition in which point and nonpoint sources within the Link River to Keno Dam reach met Klamath River TMDL allocations had no effect on dissolved oxygen compliance in some locations and a small effect in others under current conditions. On the other hand, meeting TMDL allocations for nonpoint and point sources was predicted to be important in meeting dissolved oxygen criteria when Upper Klamath Lake and Link River also met Upper Klamath TMDL water-quality targets. * The location of greatest dissolved oxygen improvement from nutrient and organic matter reductions was downstream from point and nonpoint source inflows because time and distance are required for decay to occur and for oxygen demand to be exerted. * After assessing compliance with dissolved oxygen standards at all 102 model segments in the Link River to Keno Dam reach, it was determined that the seven locations used by ODEQ appear to be a representative subset of the reach for dissolved oxygen analysis. * The USGS and TMDL models were qualitatively compared by running both models for the 2006&ndash;09 period but preserving the essential characteristics of each, such as organic matter partitioning, bathymetric representation, and parameter rates. The analysis revealed that some constituents were not greatly affected by the differing algorithms, rates, and assumptions in the two models. Conversely, other constituents, especially organic matter, were simulated differently by the two models. Organic matter in this river system is best represented by a mixture of relatively labile particulate material and a substantial concentration of refractory dissolved material. In addition, the use of a first-order sediment oxygen demand, as in the USGS model, helps to capture the seasonal and dynamic effect of settled organic and algal material. * Simulation of shunting (diverting) particulate material away from the intake of four Klamath Project diversion canals, so that the material stayed in the river and out of the Project area, caused higher concentrations of particulate material to occur in the river. In all cases modeled, the increase in in-river particulate material also produced decreased dissolved oxygen concentrations and an increase in the number of days when dissolved oxygen standards were violated. * If particulate material were shunted back into the river at the Klamath Project diversion canals, less organic matter and nutrients would be taken into the Klamath Project area and the Lost River basin, resulting in return flows to the Klamath River via Lost River Diversion Channel that may have reduced nutrient concentrations. Model scenarios bracketing potential end-member nutrient concentrations showed that the composition of the return flows had little to no effect on dissolved oxygen compliance under simulated conditions.

Oregon