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Physical habitat classification and instream flow modeling to determine habitat availability during low-flow periods, North Fork Shenandoah River, Virginia

Increasing development and increasing water withdrawals for public, industrial, and agricultural water supply threaten to reduce streamflows in the Shenandoah River basin in Virginia. Water managers need more information to balance human water-supply needs with the daily streamflows necessary for maintaining the aquatic ecosystems. To meet the need for comprehensive information on hydrology, water supply, and instream-flow requirements of the Shenandoah River basin, the U.S. Geological Survey and the Northern Shenandoah Valley Regional Commission conducted a cooperative investigation of habitat availability during low-flow periods on the North Fork Shenandoah River. Historic streamflow data and empirical data on physical habitat, river hydraulics, fish community structure, and recreation were used to develop a physical habitat simulation model. Hydraulic measurements were made during low, medium, and high flows in six reaches at a total of 36 transects that included riffles, runs, and pools, and that had a variety of substrates and cover types. Habitat suitability criteria for fish were developed from detailed fish-community sampling and microhabitat observations. Fish were grouped into four guilds of species and life stages with similar habitat requirements. Simulated habitat was considered in the context of seasonal flow regimes to show the availability of flows that sustain suitable habitat during months when precipitation and streamflow are scarce. The North Fork Shenandoah River basin was divided into three management sections for analysis purposes: the upper section, middle section, and lower section. The months of July, August, and September were chosen to represent a low-flow period in the basin with low mean monthly flows, low precipitation, high temperatures, and high water withdrawals. Exceedance flows calculated from the combined data from these three months describe low-flow periods on the North Fork Shenandoah River. Long-term records from three streamflow-gaging stations were used to characterize the flow regime: North Fork Shenandoah River at Cootes Store, Va. (1925-2002), North Fork Shenandoah River at Mount Jackson, Va. (1943-2002), and North Fork Shenandoah River near Strasburg, Va. (1925-2002). The predominant mesohabitat types (14 percent riffle, 67.3 percent run, and 18.7 percent pool) were classified along the entire river (100 miles) to assist in the selection of reaches for hydraulic and fish community data collection. The upper section has predominantly particle substrate, ranging in size from sand to boulders, and the shortest habitat units. The middle section is a transitional section with increased bedrock substrate and habitat unit length. The lower section has predominantly bedrock substrate and the longest habitat units in the river. The model simulations show that weighted usable-habitat area in the upper management section is highest at flows higher than the 25-percent exceedance flow for July, August, and September. During these three months, total weighted usable-habitat area in this section is often less than the simulated maximum weighted usable-habitat area. Habitat area in the middle management section is highest at flows between the 25- and 75-percent exceedance flows for July, August, and September. In the middle section during these months, both the actual weighted usable-habitat area and the simulated maximum weighted usable-habitat area are associated with this flow range. Weighted usable-habitat area in the lower management section is highest at flows lower than the 75-percent exceedance flow for July, August, and September. In the lower section during these three months, some weighted usable-habitat area is available, but the normal range of flows does not include the simulated maximum weighted usable-habitat area. A time-series habitat analysis associated with the historic streamflow, zero water withdrawals, and doubled water withdrawals was completed. During s

Scientific Investigations Report

Estimation of Streamflow Characteristics for Charles M. Russell National Wildlife Refuge, Northeastern Montana

Charles M. Russell National Wildlife Refuge (CMR) encompasses about 1.1 million acres (including Fort Peck Reservoir on the Missouri River) in northeastern Montana. To ensure that sufficient streamflow remains in the tributary streams to maintain the riparian corridors, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service is negotiating water-rights issues with the Reserved Water Rights Compact Commission of Montana. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, conducted a study to gage, for a short period, selected streams that cross CMR, and analyze data to estimate long-term streamflow characteristics for CMR. The long-term streamflow characteristics of primary interest include the monthly and annual 90-, 80-, 50-, and 20-percent exceedance streamflows and mean streamflows (Q.90, Q.80, Q.50, Q.20, and QM, respectively), and the 1.5-, 2-, and 2.33- year peak flows (PK1.5, PK2, and PK2.33, respectively). The Regional Adjustment Relationship (RAR) was investigated for estimating the monthly and annual Q.90, Q.80, Q.50, Q.20, and QM, and the PK1.5, PK2, and PK2.33 for the short-term CMR gaging stations (hereinafter referred to as CMR stations). The RAR was determined to provide acceptable results for estimating the long-term Q.90, Q.80, Q.50, Q.20, and QM on a monthly basis for the months of March through June, and also on an annual basis. For the months of September through January, the RAR regression equations did not provide acceptable results for any long-term streamflow characteristic. For the month of February, the RAR regression equations provided acceptable results for the long-term Q.50 and QM, but poor results for the long-term Q.90, Q.80, and Q.20. For the months of July and August, the RAR provided acceptable results for the long-term Q.50, Q.20, and QM, but poor results for the long-term Q.90 and Q.80. Estimation coefficients were developed for estimating the long-term streamflow characteristics for which the RAR did not provide acceptable results. The RAR also was determined to provide acceptable results for estimating the PK1.5., PK2, and PK2.33 for the three CMR stations that lacked suitable peak-flow records. Methods for estimating streamflow characteristics at ungaged sites also were derived. Regression analyses that relate individual streamflow characteristics to various basin and climatic characteristics for gaging stations were performed to develop regression equations to estimate streamflow characteristics at ungaged sites. Final equations for the annual Q.50, Q.20, and QM are reported. Acceptable equations also were developed for estimating QM for the months of February, March, April, June, and July, and Q.50, Q.20, and QM on an annual basis. However, equations for QM for the months of February, March, April, June, and July were determined to be less consistent and reliable than the use of estimation coefficients applied to the regression equation results for the annual QM. Acceptable regression equations also were developed for the PK1.5, PK2, and PK2.33.

Scientific Investigations Report

The challenge of retarding erosion of island biodiversity through phytosanitary measures: An update on the case of Puccinia psidii in Hawai'i

Most rust fungi are highly host specific, but Puccina psidii has an extremely broad host range within Myrtaceae and gained notoriety with a host jump in its native Brazil from common guava ( Psidium guajava ) to commercial Eucalyptus plantations. When detected in Hawaiʻi in April 2005, the first invasion outside the neotropics/subtropics, there was immediate concern for ʻōhiʻa (Metrosideros polymorpha). ʻŌhiʻa composes 80% of native forest statewide, providing stable watersheds and habitat for most Hawaiian forest birds and plants. Within months, rust spores spread statewide on wind currents, but ʻōhiʻa was found to be only a minor host, showing very light damage. The primary host was nonnative rose apple ( Syzygium jambos ), severely affected at a landscape scale, but the epiphytotic subsided as rose apple was largely defoliated or killed within several years. The limited and stable host range in Hawaiʻi (versus elsewhere) led the local conservation community to explore possibilities for excluding new genetic strains of P. psidii . Although national/international phytosanitary standards require strong scientific justification for regulations involving an infraspecific taxonomic level, hopes were buoyed when genetic studies showed no apparent genetic variation/evolution in Hawaiʻi's rust strain. A sophisticated genetic study of P. psidii in its home range is near completion; genetic variation is substantial, and host species strongly influences rust population structure. To prevent introduction of new strains, the Hawaiʻi Department of Agriculture is moving ahead with establishing stringent measures that restrict entry of Myrtaceae into Hawaiʻi. Meanwhile, P. psidii poses a major threat to Myrtaceae biodiversity worldwide.

Hawai'i

Design and Performance of an Enhanced Bioremediation Pilot Test in a Tidal Wetland Seep, West Branch Canal Creek, Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland

Because of a lack of available in situ remediation methods for sensitive wetland environments where contaminated groundwater discharges, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Army Garrison, Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland, conceived, designed, and pilot tested a permeable reactive mat that can be placed horizontally at the groundwater/surface-water interface. Development of the reactive mat was part of an enhanced bioremediation study in a tidal wetland area along West Branch Canal Creek at Aberdeen Proving Ground, where localized areas of preferential discharge (seeps) transport groundwater contaminated with carbon tetrachloride, chloroform, tetrachloroethene, trichloroethene, and 1,1,2,2-tetrachloroethane from the Canal Creek aquifer to land surface. The reactive mat consisted of a mixture of commercially available organic- and nutrient-rich peat and compost that was bioaugmented with a dechlorinating microbial consortium, WBC-2, developed for this study. Due to elevated chlorinated methane concentrations in the pilot test site, a layer of zero-valent iron mixed with the peat and compost was added at the base of the reactive mat to promote simultaneous abiotic and biotic degradation. The reactive mat for the pilot test area was designed to optimize chlorinated volatile organic compound degradation efficiency without altering the geotechnical and hydraulic characteristics, or creating undesirable water quality in the surrounding wetland area, which is referred to in this report as achieving geotechnical, hydraulic, and water-quality compatibility. Optimization of degradation efficiency was achieved through the selection of a sustainable organic reactive matrix, electron donor, and bioaugmentation method. Consideration of geotechnical compatibility through design calculations of bearing capacity, settlement, and geotextile selection showed that a 2- to 3-feet tolerable thickness of the mat was possible, with 0.17 feet settlement predicted for unconsolidated sediments between 1.5 and 6 years following installation of the reactive mat. To ensure hydraulic compatibility in the mat design, mat materials that had a hydraulic conductivity greater than the surrounding wetland sediments were selected, and the mixture was optimized to consist of 1.5 parts compost, 1.5 parts peat and 1 part sand as a safeguard against fluidization. Sediment and matrix properties also indicated that a nonwoven geotextile with a cross-plane flow greater than that of the native sediments was suitable as the base of the reactive mat. Another nonwoven geotextile was selected for installation between the iron mix and organic zones of the mat to create more laminar flow conditions within the mat. Total metals and sequential extraction procedure analyses of mat materials, which were conducted to evaluate water-quality compatibility of the mat materials, showed that concentrations of metals in the compost ranged from one-half to one order of magnitude below consensus-based probable effect concentrations in sediment. A 22-inch-thick reactive mat, containing 0.5 percent WBC-2 by volume, was constructed at seep area 3-4W and monitored from October 2004 through October 2005 for the pilot test. No local, immediate failure of the mat or of wetland sediments was observed during mat installation, indicating that design estimates of bearing capacity and geotextile textile selection ensured the integrity of the mat and wetland sediments during and following installation. Measurements of surface elevation of the mat showed an average settlement of the mat surface of approximately 0.25 feet after 10 months, which was near the predicted settlement for unconsolidated sediment. Monitoring showed rapid establishment and sustainment throughout the year of methanogenic conditions conducive to anaerobic biodegradation and efficient dechlorination activity by WBC-2. The median mass removal of chloromethanes and total chloroethenes and ethane during the

Scientific Investigations Report

Groundwater movement and interaction with surface water near the confluence of the Platte and Elkhorn rivers, Nebraska, 2016–18

The State of Nebraska requires a sustainable balance between long-term water supplies and uses of groundwater and surface water and requires Natural Resources Districts to include the effect of groundwater use on surface-water systems as part of their respective integrated management plans. Recent droughts in Nebraska (2000–6; 2012–13) have amplified concerns about the long-term sustainability of groundwater and surface-water resources in the state, and concerns about the effect of groundwater irrigation on both streamflow and the water supplies needed to meet wildlife, recreational, and municipal needs. The lower Platte River provides nearly 100 percent of drinking-water supplies to Lincoln, Nebraska, 40 to 60 percent of drinking-water supplies to Omaha, Nebr., and critical aquatic and riparian habitat for threatened and endangered species. The Lower Platte River Basin-wide Management Plan has been jointly developed by the Nebraska Department of Natural Resources and seven Natural Resources Districts to address some of these concerns by managing groundwater and surface-water resources conjunctively. To sustain flows in the lower Platte River that are needed for municipal water supplies, water managers have proposed projects aimed at temporary storage of surface water in upstream parts of the basin to mitigate periods of low flow in the lower Platte River. To increase scientific understanding and provide support for any potential future streamflow augmentation projects, the Papio-Missouri River Natural Resources District, the Lower Platte North Natural Resources District, and the Nebraska Department of Natural Resources, in cooperation with the U.S. Geological Survey, initiated this study to examine groundwater/surface-water interaction along the lower Platte and Elkhorn Rivers upstream from their confluence. The study design described herein focused on understanding seasonal characteristics of groundwater movement and interaction with surface water during periods of high groundwater demand (June through August) and low groundwater demand (all other months). Understanding how groundwater movement and interaction with surface water are affected by streamflow conditions and local groundwater demand is critical to the development of any streamflow augmentation project intended to sustain streamflow and mitigate periods of low flow in the lower Platte River. The characteristics of groundwater movement and interaction with surface water are affected by hydrologic and local climatic conditions. For the study area, 2016–18 conditions can be broadly characterized as above normal precipitation. The flows measured at the Elkhorn River at Waterloo, Nebr., streamflow-gaging station (U.S. Geological Survey station 06800500) were above the long-term median, and the streamflow of the Platte River near Leshara, Nebr., streamflow-gaging station (06796500) remained normal or slightly above normal for the duration of this study. Continuous streamflow and water-level data were interpreted to examine differences in groundwater movement and interaction with surface water between the Platte and Elkhorn Rivers during high and low groundwater demand periods. Although the streamflow for the Platte and Elkhorn Rivers and their tributaries was less during the high groundwater demand period, the hydraulic gradient along a transect of recorder wells was identical (0.0012 foot per foot) during the high and low groundwater demand synoptic water-level and streamflow surveys. The hydraulic gradient between the Platte and Elkhorn Rivers generally remained between 0.0011 and 0.0012 foot per foot. It can be inferred that the hydraulic gradient, which is the only temporally variable factor in Darcy’s Law, is consistent throughout the study period and that groundwater flow does not vary appreciably along this transect. The northern part of the study area (north of the transect of recorder wells) has consistent groundwater and tributary flow from Big Slough, Rawhide Creek (Old Channel), and Rawhide Creek for low and high groundwater demand periods. In the southern part of the study area (south of the transect of recorder wells), tributary flow is more variable and dependent on local groundwater demand and flow conditions of the Platte River. Small decreases (less than 2 feet) in the groundwater levels, such as those measured during the high groundwater demand period, can have substantial changes in the streamflow in an unnamed tributary to the Elkhorn River. The streamflow measured during the high groundwater demand synoptic water-level and streamflow survey had decreased by nearly a factor of 20 when compared to the low groundwater demand period. The volume of groundwater discharge received by the Elkhorn River was estimated by examining the changes in streamflow between measurement locations. Streamflow measurements indicate that the groundwater discharge received by the Elkhorn River in the southern part of the study area was seasonably variable, making it difficult if not impossible to estimate an annual value. In the Elkhorn River, between the Elkhorn River at Waterloo, Nebr., streamflow-gaging station and the Q Street Bridge, streamflow measurements collected during the low groundwater demand period indicated a gain of 80 cubic feet per second, which is comparable to the gain estimated using aerial thermal infrared imagery and water temperature data. Streamflow measurements collected during the high groundwater demand period indicate a loss of 80 cubic feet per second across this same reach. In assessing water supply conditions in the lower Platte River system, the term “loss” in reference to streamflow in the Elkhorn River should be used with caution. Most likely, flow from the Elkhorn River which is “lost” to the groundwater system will later discharge to surface water closer to the confluence of the Platte and Elkhorn Rivers as underflow. A calibrated groundwater flow model of the study area likely is required to predict the fate of this water and to quantify groundwater discharge during varying hydrologic conditions along this reach. Aerial thermal infrared imagery indicated that much of the groundwater discharge in the southern part of the study area is focused across a 3-mile reach where the Elkhorn River turns southwest, perpendicular to the regional groundwater flow direction. Points of focused groundwater discharge were not detected with aerial thermal infrared imagery, indicating that groundwater discharge is diffuse rather than concentrated at focused points. Temperature-based streambed flux estimates indicated that strong regional groundwater gradients are not driving groundwater discharge and hyporheic flow is the dominant groundwater/surface-water exchange process.

Nebraska

Dendrogeomorphic Assessment of the Rattlesnake Gulf Landslide in the Tully Valley, Onondaga County, New York

Dendrogeomorphic techniques were used to assess soil movement within the Rattlesnake Gulf landslide in the Tully Valley of central New York during the last century. This landslide is a postglacial, slow-moving earth slide that covers 23 acres and consists primarily of rotated, laminated, glaciolacustrine silt and clay. Sixty-two increment cores were obtained from 30 hemlock (Tsuga canadensis) trees across the active part of the landslide and from 3 control sites to interpret the soil-displacement history. Annual growth rings were measured and reaction wood was identified to indicate years in which ring growth changed from concentric to eccentric, on the premise that soil movement triggered compensatory growth in displaced trees. These data provided a basis for an 'event index' to identify years of landslide activity over the 108 years of record represented by the oldest trees. Event-index values and total annual precipitation increased during this time, but years with sudden event-index increases did not necessarily correspond to years with above-average precipitation. Multiple-regression and residual-values analyses indicated a possible correlation between precipitation and movement within the landslide and a possible cyclic (decades-long) tree-ring response to displacement within the landslide area from the toe upward to, and possibly beyond, previously formed landslide features. The soil movement is triggered by a sequence of factors that include (1) periods of several months with below-average precipitation followed by persistent above-average precipitation, (2) the attendant increase in streamflow, which erodes the landslide toe and results in an upslope propagation of slumping, and (3) the harvesting of mature trees within this landslide during the last century and continuing to the present.

Scientific Investigations Report

Occurrence of antibiotic compounds in source water and finished drinking water from the upper Scioto River Basin, Ohio, 2005-6

The occurrence of antibiotics in surface water and groundwater in urban basins has become a topic of increasing interest in recent years. Little is known about the occurrence, fate, or transport of these compounds and the possible health effects in humans and aquatic life. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the City of Columbus, Division of Power and Water, did a study to provide a synoptic view of the occurrence of antibiotics in source and finished waters in the upper Scioto River Basin. Water samples were collected seasonally-winter (December 2005), spring (May 2006), summer (August 2006) and fall (October 2006)-at five surface-water sites, one groundwater site, and three water-treatment plants (WTPs). Within the upper Scioto River Basin, sampling at each WTP involved two sampling sites: a source-water intake site and a finished-water site. One or more antibiotics were detected at 11 of the 12 sampling sites. Of the 49 targeted antibiotic compounds, 12 (24 percent) were detected at least one time for a total of 61 detections overall. These compounds were azithromycin, tylosin, erythromycin-H2O, erythromycin, roxithromycin, ciprofloxacin, ofloxacin, sulfamethazine, sulfamethoxazole, iso-chlorotetracycline, lincomycin, and trimethoprim. Detection results were at low levels, with an overall median of 0.014 (u or mu)g/L. Hap Cremean WTP had the fewest detections, with two source-water detections of sulfamethoxazole and azithromycin and no detections in the finished water. Of the total of 61 detections, 31 were in the winter sample run. Sulfamethoxazale and azithromycin detections represent 41 percent of all antibiotic detections. Azithromycin was detected only in the winter sample. Some antibiotics, such as those in the quinoline and tetracycline families, dissipate more quickly in warm water, which may explain why they were detected in the cool months (winter, spring, and fall) and not in the summer. Antibiotic data collected during this study were compared to antibiotic data collected in previous national, regional, and local studies. Many of the same antibiotic compounds detected in the upper Scioto River Basin also were detected in those investigations.

Ohio

Estimating groundwater level records using MOVE.1 and computing monthly percentiles from estimated groundwater records in Massachusetts

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection, performed record extensions on groundwater levels at select wells using the Maintenance of Variance Extension type 1 (MOVE.1) method. The groundwater levels estimated from these record extensions were used to compute monthly percentiles to improve future determinations of a groundwater index. In Massachusetts, 27 of 29 short-record study wells with continuous groundwater levels between 0.8 and 8.1 years were suitable for record extensions; 37 long-record index wells were used to extend the groundwater level records at the study wells. The index well selected to pair with a study well was chosen based on Pearson correlation coefficient values; cross-correlation between the two wells; geologic and topographic similarity; and smallest distance spanning the wells. Each study well and its corresponding index well have 1 or more years of concurrent, overlapping data; a Pearson correlation coefficient that exceeded a threshold value of 0.8; and a similar aquifer type and hydrologic characteristics. Of the 29 study wells, 2 showed poor correlations with all index wells and were not considered for record extensions. Performance metrics used to assess the accuracy of the MOVE.1 models indicated that most models provided reasonable estimates of groundwater levels. Root mean square error values ranged from 0.097 to 2.292 feet, with a median of 0.536 foot. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient values ranged from 0.623 to 0.996, with a median value of 0.759. Generally, study wells in close geographical proximity to their index well resulted in stronger model performance. The average length of groundwater level records was extended by 14.1 years to a new average of 18.1 years. The estimated groundwater level records from the MOVE.1 models resulted in an increase in the range of highest and lowest groundwater levels at 23 of 27 wells. The increase in range of groundwater levels was between 0.08 to 7.95 feet. Monthly percentiles for State drought indices were computed from the estimated MOVE.1 records and observed records through December 31, 2021. Percentiles computed from estimated records show an average groundwater level about 1.0 foot lower than observed data at the 2d percentile and 0.1 foot lower at the 30th percentile.

Massachusetts

Statistical analysis and mapping of water levels in the Biscayne aquifer, water conservation areas, and Everglades National Park, Miami-Dade County, Florida, 2000–2009

Statistical analyses and maps representing mean, high, and low water-level conditions in the surface water and groundwater of Miami-Dade County were made by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Miami-Dade County Department of Regulatory and Economic Resources, to help inform decisions necessary for urban planning and development. Sixteen maps were created that show contours of (1) the mean of daily water levels at each site during October and May for the 2000–2009 water years; (2) the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles of the daily water levels at each site during October and May and for all months during 2000–2009; and (3) the differences between mean October and May water levels, as well as the differences in the percentiles of water levels for all months, between 1990–1999 and 2000–2009. The 80th, 90th, and 96th percentiles of the annual maximums of daily groundwater levels during 1974–2009 (a 35-year period) were computed to provide an indication of unusually high groundwater-level conditions. These maps and statistics provide a generalized understanding of the variations of water levels in the aquifer, rather than a survey of concurrent water levels. Water-level measurements from 473 sites in Miami-Dade County and surrounding counties were analyzed to generate statistical analyses. The monitored water levels included surface-water levels in canals and wetland areas and groundwater levels in the Biscayne aquifer. Maps were created by importing site coordinates, summary water-level statistics, and completeness of record statistics into a geographic information system, and by interpolating between water levels at monitoring sites in the canals and water levels along the coastline. Raster surfaces were created from these data by using the triangular irregular network interpolation method. The raster surfaces were contoured by using geographic information system software. These contours were imprecise in some areas because the software could not fully evaluate the hydrology given available information; therefore, contours were manually modified where necessary. The ability to evaluate differences in water levels between 1990–1999 and 2000–2009 is limited in some areas because most of the monitoring sites did not have 80 percent complete records for one or both of these periods. The quality of the analyses was limited by (1) deficiencies in spatial coverage; (2) the combination of pre- and post-construction water levels in areas where canals, levees, retention basins, detention basins, or water-control structures were installed or removed; (3) an inability to address the potential effects of the vertical hydraulic head gradient on water levels in wells of different depths; and (4) an inability to correct for the differences between daily water-level statistics. Contours are dashed in areas where the locations of contours have been approximated because of the uncertainty caused by these limitations. Although the ability of the maps to depict differences in water levels between 1990–1999 and 2000–2009 was limited by missing data, results indicate that near the coast water levels were generally higher in May during 2000–2009 than during 1990–1999; and that inland water levels were generally lower during 2000–2009 than during 1990–1999. Generally, the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles of water levels from all months were also higher near the coast and lower inland during 2000–2009 than during 1990–1999. Mean October water levels during 2000–2009 were generally higher than during 1990–1999 in much of western Miami-Dade County, but were lower in a large part of eastern Miami-Dade County.

Florida

Vulnerability of production wells in the Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer system to saltwater intrusion from the Delaware River in Camden, Gloucester, and Salem Counties, New Jersey

The Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer system is hydraulically connected to the Delaware River in parts of Camden and Gloucester Counties, New Jersey, and has more limited contact with the river in Salem County, New Jersey. The aquifer system is used widely for water supply, and 122 production wells that are permitted by the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection to pump more than 100,000 gallons per year in the three counties are within 2 miles of the river. During drought, saltwater may encroach upstream from the Atlantic Ocean and Delaware Bay to areas where the aquifer system is recharged by induced infiltration through the Delaware River streambed. During the drought of the mid-1960's, water with a chloride concentration in excess of potability standards (250 mg/L (milligrams per liter)) encroached into the reach of the river that recharges the aquifer system. The vulnerability of the major production wells in the area to similar saltwater encroachment in the future is a concern to water managers. This vulnerability was evaluated by investigating two scenarios: (1) a one-time recurrence of the conditions approximating those that occurred in the1960's, and (2) the recurrence of those same conditions on an annual basis. Results of ground-water-flow simulation in conjunction with particle tracking and one-dimensional transport analysis indicate that the wells that are most vulnerable to saltwater intrusion are those in the Morris and Delair well fields in Camden County. A single 30-day event during which the concentration of dissolved chloride or sodium exceeds 2,098 mg/L or 407 mg/L, respectively, in the Delaware River would threaten the potability of water from these wells, given New Jersey drinking-water standards of 250 mg/L for dissolved chloride and 50 mg/L for dissolved sodium. This chloride concentration is about six times that observed in the river during the 1960's drought. An annually occurring 1-month event during which the concentrations of dissolved chloride or sodium in the river exceeds 1,818 mg/L or 358 mg/L, respectively, would threaten the potability of water from these wells. Wells outside the Morris and Delair well fields are substantially less vulnerable to the intermittent saltwater intrusion that was simulated.

New Jersey

Occurrence, distribution, loads, and yields of selected pesticides in the Little River basin, Kentucky, 2003-04

Water resources in the Little River Basin are potentially vulnerable to applications of pesticides associated with both agricultural and nonagricultural activities, because much of the basin is characterized by karst topography. Concerns about water quality resulting from pesticide use in karst areas and lack of data on concentrations of pesticides in surface water led to further investigation of water quality in the Little River Basin, which includes about 600 square miles in Christian and Trigg Counties and a portion of Caldwell County in western Kentucky. Water samples were collected in streams in the Little River Basin, Kentucky during 2003-04 as part of a study conducted in cooperation with the Kentucky Department of Agriculture. The objectives of the study were to assess the occurrence and distribution of pesticides, to evaluate the spatial and seasonal variability of pesticides, and to evaluate loads and yields of selected pesticides in the basin. A total of 91 water samples was collected at 4 fixed-network sites from March through November 2003 and from February through November 2004. An additional 20 samples were collected at 5 synoptic-network sites within the same period. Twenty-four pesticides were detected of the 127 pesticides analyzed in the stream samples. Of the 24 detected pesticides, 15 were herbicides, 7 were insecticides, and 2 were fungicides. The most commonly detected pesticides-atrazine, simazine, metolachlor, and acetochlor-were those most heavily used on crops during the study. Atrazine and simazine were detected in 100 percent of all surface-water samples, and metolachlor and acetochlor were detected in more than 45 percent. The pesticide degradate, deethylatrazine, was detected in 100 percent of the samples. Only one nonagricultural herbicide, prometon, was detected in more than 50 percent of the samples. Diazinon, the most commonly detected insecticide, was found in 25 percent of all samples and was found at all sites except Casey Creek. Metalaxyl was the most commonly detected fungicide (14 percent); most detections were in samples from the Sinking Fork subbasin. Concentrations of herbicides were highest following application in the spring (March-May). In contrast, insecticides typically were present during the summer (June-August). The most commonly detected pesticides in the Little River Basin were found at low concentrations in streams year-round. Atrazine and simazine (row-crop herbicides) had the highest measured concentrations (22 and 6.1 micrograms per liter (?g/L), respectively) and were the most heavily applied herbicides in the basin. Metolachlor also was heavily applied in the basin, but measured concentrations did not exceed 0.32 ?g/L. The insecticide, Malathion, was only detected in 4 percent of the samples, although it was heavily applied in the basin during 2003-04. Most detections of pesticides were at low concentrations in relation to drinking-water standards and guidelines established for the protection of aquatic life. Only two pesticide compounds--atrazine and simazine--exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) standards for drinking water. Atrazine exceeded the USEPA's maximum contaminant level (MCL) 19 times in 111 detections; simazine exceeded the established MCL 2 times in 111 detections. These exceedences occurred in the spring. Concentrations of atrazine also exceeded the established aquatic-life criterion (1.8 ?g/L) in 32 samples collected from all sites. Concentrations of deethylatrazine, an herbicide-transformation compound, tended to follow the same monthly concentration pattern as its parent compound (atrazine), but concentrations of deethylatrazine were lower than those of atrazine. Atrazine may have been present in the soil much longer at these sites, which might have allowed microbial populations to transform atrazine into deethylatrazine. A statistical comparison of concentrations of selected pesticides among four fixed-network sites

Scientific Investigations Report

Discharge data collection and analysis and implications for surface-water/groundwater interactions in the lower Las Vegas Wash, Clark County, Nevada, 2016–18

The lower Las Vegas Wash represents the terminal surface drainage for the Las Vegas Valley in southern Nevada. In 1997, high concentrations of perchlorate were found in seeps contributing to discharge in this area and traced to an industrial byproduct from manufacturing operations in the mid-1900s at the nearby Basic Magnesium, Incorporated, plant. The discovery prompted a water-resources investigation by the Nevada Department of Environmental Protection (NDEP) to develop an understanding of the nearby groundwater flow system and the dynamics associated with surface-water flow in the Wash. In 2016, the U.S. Geological Survey was tasked with evaluating surface-water discharge in the lower Las Vegas Wash near locations where perchlorate concentrations from the groundwater system had been detected. Results of this study will assist NDEP with identifying areas of groundwater and surface-water interaction and help guide future cleanup and monitoring efforts. Streamflow discharge is evaluated along a 4-mile section of the lower Las Vegas Wash (referred to as the Wash) and used to describe surface-water and groundwater interactions between the Wash channel and bank sediments. Continuous discharge data were collected during a 2-year period (2016–18) at 5 gaging stations along the Wash. Additionally, multiple discrete measurements between gaging stations were collected during 4 synoptic sampling events between 2016 and 2018. A diurnal discharge pattern, controlled by upstream treated wastewater releases, provided high- and low-discharge markers that are used to compute downstream time-lags of peak and minimum flows. Computed time-lags are used to establish travel times between measurement sites, and difference in upstream and time-lagged downstream hydrographs are used to compute increases (gain) or decreases (loss) in discharge between gaging stations or between gaging stations and discrete measurements. Tributary surface-water inflows to the lower Las Vegas Wash from wastewater discharge, remediation efforts, and periodic flooding from rainfall runoff are included in computing differences in discharge. Differences between discharge data from delineated reaches are used to define locations of daily, monthly, and yearly streamflow gains from or losses to adjacent bank sediments. Construction of additional channel-stabilization weirs have occurred since the completion of this study and the associated change to streamflow dynamics may limit study results to the period analyzed; however, methods and processes described in this report can be used in future evaluations.

Nevada

A conceptual framework and monitoring strategy for movement of saltwater in the coastal plain aquifer system of Virginia

A conceptual framework synthesizes previous studies to provide an understanding of conditions, processes, and relations of saltwater to groundwater withdrawal in the Virginia Coastal Plain aquifer system. A strategy for monitoring saltwater movement is based on spatial relations between the saltwater-transition zone and 612 groundwater-production wells that were regulated during 2013 by the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality. The vertical position and lateral distance and direction of the bottom of each production well’s screened interval was calculated relative to previously published groundwater chloride iso-concentration surfaces. Spatial analysis identified 81 production wells completed in the Yorktown-Eastover and Potomac aquifers that are positioned in closest proximity to the 250-milligrams-per-liter chloride surface, and from which chloride concentrations are most likely to increase above the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s 250-milligrams-per-liter secondary maximum-contaminant level. Observation wells are specified to distinguish vertical upconing from lateral intrusion among individual production wells. To monitor upconing, an observation well is to be collocated with each production well and completed at about the altitude of the 250-milligrams-per-liter chloride iso-concentration surface. To monitor lateral intrusion, a potential location of an observation well is projected from the bottom of each production well’s screened interval, in the lateral direction to the underlying chloride surface to a distance of 1 mile. Monitoring potential withdrawal-induced movement of saltwater in the Virginia Coastal Plain aquifer system is needed to detect increases in chloride concentration before groundwater-production wells become contaminated. An investigation was undertaken during 2014 by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality, to provide a sound scientific understanding of saltwater movement and guidance to implement a monitoring program. Previous studies have theorized that the saltwater originated primarily from seawater repeatedly emplaced within aquifer sediments during the past about 65 million years. Subsequent flushing by fresh groundwater has been impeded across sediments filling the Chesapeake Bay impact crater. The resulting saltwater-transition zone has been mapped to exhibit a warped and steeply mounded dome shape about centered on the impact crater, and flanked by a nearly level and shallow plateau shape to the southeast. Groundwater chloride concentrations have historically fluctuated during periods of weeks to months, probably as a result of localized vertical upconing beneath individual production wells. Lateral intrusion takes several decades or more to horizontally displace groundwater across distances of about 1 mile toward production wells. Upconing is relatively immediate, but reversible, whereas lateral intrusion under the regionally landward hydraulic gradient may slowly, but permanently reposition the saltwater-transition zone. Upconing coupled with lateral intrusion is theorized to produce composite chloride-concentration trends that vary widely over time in response to changing water demands, and evolve dynamically from hydraulic interactions among multiple neighboring production wells. Some aspects of observation-well construction and sampling are of particular importance to monitoring saltwater movement in the Virginia Coastal Plain aquifer system. Observation wells should feature screened intervals generally of no more than 10 feet that isolate distinct parts of the aquifer, and be thoroughly developed for removal of drilling fluid and introduced water. Presample purging should fully displace stratified saltwater in the well casing upward to the pump. Stable flow should be maintained as field parameters are measured and sample containers are filled with filtered water isolated from the atmosphere and unaffected by surface temperature. Groundwater samples from both upconing and lateral-intrusion observation wells should initially be collected four times per year when wells are newly established, but can be more optimally timed with withdrawal once responses in chloride concentrations can be reliably predicted. Concentrations of major ions (1) determine the dominant chemical composition of groundwater at each well, (2) establish the relative position of the well within the saltwater-transition zone, and (3) provide data quality control by calculation of sample charge balance. For these reasons, samples initially collected for the first year from newly established observation wells should be analyzed for calcium, magnesium, sodium, and potassium cations and chloride, bicarbonate, carbonate, sulfate, fluoride, and bromide anions. Inflection-point titration for alkalinity should be completed in the field. Analysis of chloride and field parameters may be adequate on a long-term basis once the dominant chemical composition at each well is established. Specific conductance may also provide a surrogate for chloride concentration depending on regulatory policy. The saltwater-movement monitoring strategy is limited and constrained. Relative monitoring needs among groundwater-production wells, and construction of observation wells, depend on the accuracy of previously mapped groundwater chloride iso-concentration surfaces. Production wells in similar proximity to saltwater can differ in aquifer hydraulic conductivity, rates of withdrawal, and screened-interval lengths. Only production wells making withdrawals reported to the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality have been accounted for; undocumented production wells can result in spurious changes in groundwater chloride concentration. Upconing observation wells should be as close as possible to corresponding production wells, so long as production wells are not damaged by borehole deviation. Projected locations of some lateral-intrusion observation wells may be precluded and require adjustment. Depths of upconing and lateral-intrusion observation wells may also require adjustment to be within the same aquifer as their corresponding production wells. Existing unused wells can be adapted as observation wells if differences from specified locations and construction are kept to a minimum and are accounted for. Where multiple production wells are in proximity, a modified monitoring approach may be needed to determine their net effect on changes in chloride concentration, and may require more than one lateral-intrusion observation well depending on the vertical positions of production-well screened intervals.

Virginia

Basin-scale simulation of current and potential climate changed hydrologic conditions in the Lake Michigan Basin, United States

The Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI) is the largest public investment in the Great Lakes in two decades. A task force of 11 Federal agencies developed an action plan to implement the initiative. The U.S. Department of the Interior was one of the 11 agencies that entered into an interagency agreement with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency as part of the GLRI to complete scientific projects throughout the Great Lakes basin. The U.S. Geological Survey, a bureau within the Department of the Interior, is involved in the GLRI to provide scientific support to management decisions as well as measure progress of the Great Lakes basin restoration efforts. This report presents basin-scale simulated current and forecast climatic and hydrologic conditions in the Lake Michigan Basin. The forecasts were obtained by constructing and calibrating a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model of the Lake Michigan Basin; the PRMS model was calibrated using the parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis (PEST) software suite. The calibrated model was used to evaluate potential responses to climate change by using four simulated carbon emission scenarios from eight general circulation models released by the World Climate Research Programme’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3. Statistically downscaled datasets of these scenarios were used to project hydrologic response for the Lake Michigan Basin. In general, most of the observation sites in the Lake Michigan Basin indicated slight increases in annual streamflow in response to future climate change scenarios. Monthly streamflows indicated a general shift from the current (2014) winter-storage/snowmelt-pulse system to a system with a more equally distributed hydrograph throughout the year. Simulated soil moisture within the basin illustrates that conditions within the basin are also expected to change on a monthly timescale. One effect of increasing air temperature as a result of the changing climate was the appreciable increase in the length of the growing season in the Lake Michigan Basin. The increase in growing season will cause an increase in evapotranspiration across the Lake Michigan Basin, which will directly affect soil moisture and late growing season streamflows. Output from the Lake Michigan Basin PRMS model is available through an online dynamic web mapping service available at (http://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2014/5175/). The map service includes layers for the each of the 8 global climate models and 4 carbon emission scenarios combinations for 12 hydrologic model state variables. The layers are pre-rendered maps of annual hydrologic response from 1977 through 2099 that provide an easily accessible online method to examine climate change effects across the Lake Michigan Basin.

Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin

Response of reef corals on a fringing reef flat to elevated suspended-sediment concentrations: Moloka‘i, Hawai‘i

A long-term (10 month exposure) experiment on effects of suspended sediment on the mortality, growth, and recruitment of the reef corals Montipora capitata and Porites compressa was conducted on the shallow reef flat off south Molokaʻi, Hawaiʻi. Corals were grown on wire platforms with attached coral recruitment tiles along a suspended solid concentration (SSC) gradient that ranged from 37 mg l −1 (inshore) to 3 mg l −1 (offshore). Natural coral reef development on the reef flat is limited to areas with SSCs less than 10 mg l −1 as previously suggested in the scientific literature. However, the experimental corals held at much higher levels of turbidity showed surprisingly good survivorship and growth. High SSCs encountered on the reef flat reduced coral recruitment by one to three orders of magnitude compared to other sites throughout Hawaiʻi. There was a significant correlation between the biomass of macroalgae attached to the wire growth platforms at the end of the experiment and percentage of the corals showing mortality. We conclude that lack of suitable hard substrate, macroalgal competition, and blockage of recruitment on available substratum are major factors accounting for the low natural coral coverage in areas of high turbidity. The direct impact of high turbidity on growth and mortality is of lesser importance.

Hawaii

Primer for identifying cold-water refuges to protect and restore thermal diversity in riverine landscapes

In 2003, EPA issued Region 10 guidance for Pacific Northwest state and tribal temperature water quality standards. This document was the culmination of a multi-agency, multi-disciplinary effort to develop a temperature standard for the protection of salmon, steelhead, bull trout, and redband and Lahontan cutthroat trout (collectively termed coldwater salmonids). Since its release, the Oregon and Washington have adopted the temperature standard for their waters designated for protection of coldwater salmonids. One of the unique aspects of the temperature standard, which strived to integrate the physical nature of rivers and streams and the biological requirements of coldwater salmonids, is the requirement to protect and restore cold-water refuges. This requirement is incorporated into the temperature criterion for the protection of migration corridors in the Willamette, Columbia, and Snake rivers. The intent of this provision is the recognition that some coldwater salmonids migrate through waters during thermally stressful months of summer and most likely are able to do so by using features in the rivers that provide cold water spatially or temporally. The challenge is to ensure that these features are identified, protected, and restored in order for these waters to meet the temperature standard. This primer is intended to assist Region 10 states, tribes, and local watershed groups in meeting this goal and thereby further the protection and restoration of coldwater salmonids. It provides an up-to-date summary with easily referenced information and illustrations on the scientific advances and management applications of research on cold-water refuges and can be used as a "roadmap" for identifying cold-water refuges and learning more about processes that create thermal diversity in riverine landscapes. The specific objectives are to 1. define cold-water refuge in scientific and management contexts. 2. outline an approach for identifying cold-water refuges to address water quality standards. 3. classify and characterize the types and physical processes that create cold-water refuges. 4. review methods and tools for identifying cold-water refuges in small streams to large rivers. 5. describe ecological perspectives and on-the-ground approaches for protecting and restoring thermal diversity in rivers.

Oregon

Watershed Models for Decision Support for Inflows to Potholes Reservoir, Washington

A set of watershed models for four basins (Crab Creek, Rocky Ford Creek, Rocky Coulee, and Lind Coulee), draining into Potholes Reservoir in east-central Washington, was developed as part of a decision support system to aid the U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, in managing water resources in east-central Washington State. The project is part of the U.S. Geological Survey and Bureau of Reclamation collaborative Watershed and River Systems Management Program. A conceptual model of hydrology is outlined for the study area that highlights the significant processes that are important to accurately simulate discharge under a wide range of conditions. The conceptual model identified the following factors as significant for accurate discharge simulations: (1) influence of frozen ground on peak discharge, (2) evaporation and ground-water flow as major pathways in the system, (3) channel losses, and (4) influence of irrigation practices on reducing or increasing discharge. The Modular Modeling System was used to create a watershed model for the four study basins by combining standard Precipitation Runoff Modeling System modules with modified modules from a previous study and newly modified modules. The model proved unreliable in simulating peak-flow discharge because the index used to track frozen ground conditions was not reliable. Mean monthly and mean annual discharges were more reliable when simulated. Data from seven USGS streamflow-gaging stations were used to compare with simulated discharge for model calibration and evaluation. Mean annual differences between simulated and observed discharge varied from 1.2 to 13.8 percent for all stations used in the comparisons except one station on a regional ground-water discharge stream. Two thirds of the mean monthly percent differences between the simulated mean and the observed mean discharge for these six stations were between -20 and 240 percent, or in absolute terms, between -0.8 and 11 cubic feet per second. A graphical user interface was developed for the user to easily run the model, make runoff forecasts, and evaluate the results. The models; however, are not reliable for managing short-term operations because of their demonstrated inability to match individual storm peaks and individual monthly discharge values. Short-term forecasting may be improved with real-time monitoring of the extent of frozen ground and the snow-water equivalent in the basin. Despite the models unreliability for short-term runoff forecasts, they are useful in providing long-term, time-series discharge data where no observed data exist.

Scientific Investigations Report

Concentrations, loads, and yields of select constituents from major tributaries of the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers in Iowa, water years 2004-2008

Excess nutrients, suspended-sediment loads, and the presence of pesticides in Iowa rivers can have deleterious effects on water quality in State streams, downstream major rivers, and the Gulf of Mexico. Fertilizer and pesticides are used to support crop growth on Iowa's highly productive agricultural landscape and for household and commercial lawns and gardens. Water quality was characterized near the mouths of 10 major Iowa tributaries to the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers from March 2004 through September 2008. Stream loads were calculated for select ions, nutrients, and sediment using approximately monthly samples, and samples from storm and snowmelt events. Water-quality samples collected using standard streamflow-integrated protocols were analyzed for major ions, nutrients, carbon, pesticides, and suspended sediment. Statistical data summaries of sample data used parametric and nonparametric techniques to address potential bias related to censored data and multiple levels of censoring of data below analytical detection limits. Constituent stream loads were computed using standard pre-defined models in S-LOADEST that include streamflow and time terms plus additional terms for streamflow variability and streamflow anomalies. Streamflow variability terms describe the difference in streamflow from recent average conditions, whereas streamflow anomaly terms account for deviations from average conditions from long- to short-term sequentially. Streamflow variability or anomaly terms were included in 44 of 80 site/constituent individual models, demonstrating the usefulness of these terms in increasing accuracy of the load estimates. Constituent concentrations in Iowa streams exhibit streamflow, seasonal, and spatial patterns related to the landform and climate gradients across the studied basins. The streamflow-concentration relation indicated dilution for ions such as chloride and sulfate. Other constituent concentrations, such as dissolved organic carbon and suspended sediment, increased with streamflow. Nitrogen concentrations (total nitrogen and nitrate plus nitrite) increased with low and moderate streamflows, but decreased with high streamflows. Seasonal patterns observed in constituent concentrations were affected by streamflow, algae blooms, and pesticide application. The various landform regions produced different water-quality responses across the study basins; for example, total phosphorus, suspended sediment, and turbidity were greatest from the steep, loess-dominated southwestern Iowa basins. Nutrient concentrations, though not regulated for drinking water at the study sites, were high compared to drinking-water limits and criteria for protection of aquatic life proposed for other Midwestern states (Iowa criteria for aquatic life have not been proposed). Nitrate plus nitrite concentrations exceeded the drinking-water limit [10 milligrams per liter (mg/L)] in 11 percent of all samples at the 10 sites, and exceeded Minnesota's proposed aquatic life criteria (4.9 mg/L) in 68 percent of samples. The Wisconsin standard for total phosphorus (0.1 mg/L) was exceeded in 92 percent of samples. Ammonia standards, current during sample collection and at publication of this report, for protection of aquatic life were met for all samples, but draft criteria proposed in 2009 to protect more sensitive species like mussels, were exceeded at three sites. Loads and yields also differed among sites and years. The Big Sioux, Little Sioux, and Des Moines Rivers produced the greatest sulfate yields. Mississippi River tributaries had greater chloride yields than Missouri River tributaries. The Big Sioux River also had the lowest silica yields and total nitrogen and nitrate yields, whereas nitrogen yields were greater in the northeastern rivers. The Boyer and Nishnabotna River total phosphorus yields were the greatest in the study. The Boyer River orthophosphate yields were greatest except in 2008, when the Maquoketa River produced the greatest yield. Rivers in southwestern Iowa's Western Loess Hills and Steeply Rolling Loess Prairie ecoregions had the greatest suspended-sediment yields, whereas the smallest yields were in the Big Sioux and Wapsipinicon Rivers. In the 10 Iowa rivers studied, combined annual total nitrogen stream transport ranged from 3.68 to 9.95 tons per square mile per year, and total phosphorus transport ranged from 0.138 to 0.570 tons per square mile per year. Six-month loads relative to fertilizer use ranged from 8 to 56 percent for nitrogen, and 1.0 to 11.1 percent for phosphorus. The smallest loads relative to fertilizer use for both nitrogen and phosphorus occurred in July-December of dry years, and the largest nitrogen and phosphorus loads relative to use were in wet years from January-June.

Iowa;Minnesota;South Dakota