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Spatial modeling of wild bird risk factors to investigate highly pathogenic A(H5N1) avian influenza virus transmission

One of the longest-persisting avian influenza viruses in history, highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) A(H5N1), continues to evolve after 18 years, advancing the threat of a global pandemic. Wild waterfowl (family Anatidae), are reported as secondary transmitters of HPAIV, and primary reservoirs for low-pathogenic avian influenza viruses, yet spatial inputs for disease risk modeling for this group have been lacking. Using GIS and Monte Carlo simulations, we developed geospatial indices of waterfowl abundance at 1 and 30 km resolutions and for the breeding and wintering seasons for China, the epicenter of H5N1. Two spatial layers were developed: cumulative waterfowl abundance (WAB), a measure of predicted abundance across species, and cumulative abundance weighted by H5N1 prevalence (WPR), whereby abundance for each species was adjusted based on prevalence values then totaled across species. Spatial patterns of the model output differed between seasons, with higher WAB and WPR in the northern and western regions of China for the breeding season and in the southeast for the wintering season. Uncertainty measures indicated highest error in southeastern China for both WAB and WPR. We also explored the effect of resampling waterfowl layers from 1 km to 30 km resolution for multi-scale risk modeling. Results indicated low average difference (less than 0.16 and 0.01 standard deviations for WAB and WPR, respectively), with greatest differences in the north for the breeding season and southeast for the wintering season. This work provides the first geospatial models of waterfowl abundance available for China. The indices provide important inputs for modeling disease transmission risk at the interface of poultry and wild birds. These models are easily adaptable, have broad utility to both disease and conservation needs, and will be available to the scientific community for advanced modeling applications.

Avian Diseases

Sero-epidemiology of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza viruses among wild birds in subarctic intercontinental transition zones

Background: The geographic expansion and evolution of A/Goose/Guangdong/1/1996(H5N1) (Gs/GD) lineage H5Nx highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses since 1996 have raised awareness of enzootic circulation among migratory birds and the potential for intercontinental transport and spread. Recent Pacific- and Atlantic-route introductions of HPAI to North America were facilitated by avian migration through subarctic zones, specifically Alaska and Iceland. This study aimed to identify recent historical patterns of exposure to HPAI viruses among birds within and migrating through both regions and evaluate how geographic, demographic, and taxonomic differences contribute to exposure risk at two intercontinental staging locations. Methods: During 2010-2019, blood samples were obtained from captured wild migratory seabirds and waterfowl in Alaska and Iceland. All live birds were released following completion of sampling. Sampling date, species, sampling location, and age class was documented for each bird, and sex was documented when possible. Lentiviral pseudoviruses that express the influenza hemagglutinin surface glycoprotein for H5Nx HPAI and H5 low-pathogenicity avian influenza (LPAI) were constructed for use in serological assays to screen for and quantify titers of antibodies against the latter viruses. Data were analyzed to compare (a) categorical baseline ecological traits between Iceland and Alaska, and (b) ecological traits between birds identified to be seropositive and suggestive/seronegative/fully cross-reactive birds to H5Nx HPAI in Iceland and Alaska. Factors associated with seroreactivity to H5Nx HPAI and H5 LPAI were assessed. Results: The seroprevalence of HPAI among birds in both locations was 7.3% (112/1526). Findings reveal variability in seroprevalence by year, higher rates of exposure to H5 LPAI than H5Nx HPAI overall, and significantly more seropositive and suggestive exposure of birds to H5Nx HPAI in Alaska as compared to Iceland. Geographic, demographic, and taxonomic differences contribute to exposure risk between Alaska and Iceland. Most tested birds were immuno-naïve to HPAI in both locations, which indicates many migratory birds in the subarctic are susceptible to HPAI infection, demonstrating substantial risk for intercontinental transmission between Asia, Europe, and North America. Conclusions: Our findings provide further justification for increased viral and serosurveillance in Alaska and Iceland to monitor subarctic movements of migratory birds and intercontinental transmission dynamics of currently circulating and new strains of HPAI globally.

Research Square

Research on pathogens at Great Lakes beaches: sampling, influential factors, and potential sources

The overall mission of this work is to provide science-based information and methods that will allow beach managers to more accurately make beach closure and advisory decisions, understand the sources and physical processes affecting beach contaminants, and understand how science-based information can be used to mitigate and restore beaches and protect the public. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in collaboration with many Federal, State, and local agencies and universities, has conducted research on beach health issues in the Great Lakes Region for more than a decade. The work consists of four science elements that align with the USGS Beach Health Initiative Mission: real-time assessments of water quality; coastal processes; pathogens and source tracking; and data analysis, interpretation, and communication. The ongoing or completed research for the pathogens and source tracking topic is described in this fact sheet.

Great Lakes;Lake Erie;Lake Huron;Lake Michigan

USGS role and response to highly pathogenic avian influenza

Avian influenza viruses are naturally occurring in wild birds such as ducks, geese, swans, and gulls. These viruses generally do not cause illness in wild birds, however, when spread to poultry they can be highly pathogenic and cause illness and death in backyard and commercial farms. Outbreaks may cause devastating agricultural economic losses and some viral strains have the potential to infect people directly. Furthermore, the combination of avian influenza viruses with mammalian viruses can result in strains with the ability to transmit from person to person, possibly leading to viruses with pandemic potential. All known pandemic influenza viruses have had some genetic material of avian origin. Since 1996, a strain of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus, H5N1, has caused infection in wild birds, losses to poultry farms in Eurasia and North Africa, and led to the deaths of several hundred people. Spread of the H5N1 virus and other influenza strains from China was likely facilitated by migratory birds. In December 2014, HPAI was detected in poultry in Canada and migratory birds in the United States. Since then, HPAI viruses have spread to large parts of the United States and will likely continue to spread through migratory bird flyways and other mechanisms throughout North America. In the United States, HPAI viruses have severely affected the poultry industry with millions of domestic birds dead or culled. These strains of HPAI are not known to cause disease in humans; however, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) advise caution when in close contact with infected birds. Experts agree that HPAI strains currently circulating in wild birds of North America will likely persist for the next few years. This unprecedented situation presents risks to the poultry industry, natural resource management, and potentially human health. Scientific knowledge and decision support tools are urgently needed to understand factors affecting the persistence of HPAI in wild birds, to forecast future spread of HPAI by wild birds, and to detect novel strains of HPAI that may emerge.

Fact Sheet

USGS highly pathogenic avian influenza research strategy

Avian influenza viruses are naturally occurring in wild birds such as ducks, geese, swans, and gulls. These viruses generally do not cause illness in wild birds, however, when spread to poultry they can be highly pathogenic and cause illness and death in backyard and commercial farms. Outbreaks may cause devastating agricultural economic losses and some viral strains have the potential to infect people directly. Furthermore, the combination of avian influenza viruses with mammalian viruses can result in strains with the ability to transmit from person to person, possibly leading to viruses with pandemic potential. All known pandemic influenza viruses have had some genetic material of avian origin. Since 1996, a strain of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus, H5N1, has caused infection in wild birds, losses to poultry farms in Eurasia and North Africa, and led to the deaths of several hundred people. Spread of the H5N1 virus and other influenza strains from China was likely facilitated by migratory birds. In December 2014, HPAI was detected in poultry in Canada and migratory birds in the United States. Since then, HPAI viruses have spread to large parts of the United States and will likely continue to spread through migratory bird flyways and other mechanisms throughout North America. In the United States, HPAI viruses have severely affected the poultry industry with millions of domestic birds dead or culled. These strains of HPAI are not known to cause disease in humans; however, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) advise caution when in close contact with infected birds. Experts agree that HPAI strains currently circulating in wild birds of North America will likely persist for the next few years. This unprecedented situation presents risks to the poultry industry, natural resource management, and potentially human health. Scientific knowledge and decision support tools are urgently needed to understand factors affecting the persistence of HPAI in wild birds, to forecast future spread of HPAI by wild birds, and to detect novel strains of HPAI that may emerge.

Fact Sheet

Surveillance plan for the early detection of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus in migratory birds in the United States: surveillance year 2009

Executive Summary: This Surveillance Plan (Plan) describes plans for conducting surveillance of wild birds in the United States and its Territories and Freely-Associated States to provide for early detection of the introduction of the H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) subtype of the influenza A virus by migratory birds during the 2009 surveillance year, spanning the period of April 1, 2009 - March 31, 2010. The Plan represents a continuation of surveillance efforts begun in 2006 under the Interagency Strategic Plan for the Early Detection of H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Wild Migratory Birds (U.S. Department of Agriculture and U.S. Department of the Interior, 2006). The Plan sets forth sampling plans by: region, target species or species groups to be sampled, locations of sampling, sample sizes, and sampling approaches and methods. This Plan will be reviewed annually and modified as appropriate for subsequent surveillance years based on evaluation of information from previous years of surveillance, changing patterns and threats of H5N1 HPAI, and changes in funding availability for avian influenza surveillance. Specific sampling strategies will be developed accordingly within each of six regions, defined here as Alaska, Hawaiian/Pacific Islands, Lower Pacific Flyway (Washington, Oregon, California, Idaho, Nevada, Arizona), Central Flyway, Mississippi Flyway, and Atlantic Flyway.

General Information Product

Reconnaissance for selected pathogens, and review of pertinent literature, for the New River Gorge National River, West Virginia, 2000

Giardia and enteric viruses were detected in a reconnaissance study of Madam Creek and Dunloup Creek, two tributaries of the New River Gorge National River, in 2000. Cryptosporidium and pathogenic bacteria were not detected in these tributaries. The two streams were identified in previous studies as consistently having some of the highest indicator-bacteria concentrations among New River Gorge tributaries. This study used the best available commercial methods for identifying and enumerating pathogens. However, these methods were developed for regular monitoring at water-treatment facilities or documenting the causes of disease outbreaks, and provided ambiguous results when used in this occurrence study. The World Health Organization suggests a study design for monitoring recreational waters. Frequent sampling for multiple fecal indicator organisms is the recommended first step. Regression modeling that uses environmental characteristics measurable in real time to predict bacteria concentrations and make operational decisions is recommended for contaminated waters.

West Virginia

Preliminary geochemical, microbiological, and epidemiological investigations into possible linkages between lignite aquifers, pathogenic microbes, and kidney disease in northwestern Louisiana

In May 2002, 15 wells and four surface water sites were sampled, and in September 2002, those same wells and sites plus four additional surface sites were sampled in five parishes of northwestern Louisiana. A geographic information system (GIS) was used to select residential water wells for sampling. Well water samples were analyzed for pH, conductivity, organic compounds, and nutrient and anion concentrations. All samples were further tested for presence of fungi (maintained for up to 28 days and colonies counted and identified microscopically), and metal and trace element concentration by inductively-coupled plasma mass spectrometry and atomic emission spectrometry. Surface water samples were tested for dissolved oxygen and evidence of leptospiral bacterial presence. A polymerase chain reaction protocol was optimized for detection of pathogenic leptospires, and the sensitivity of the assay was determined. The Spearman correlation method was used to assess the association between the endpoints for these field/laboratory analyses and the incidence of cancer of the renal pelvis obtained from the Louisiana Tumor Registry. Significant associations were revealed between the cancer rate and the overall number of organic compounds, the fungi Zygomycetes, the nutrients PO4 and NH3, and thirteen chemical elements (As, B, Br, Cl, Cr, F, Li, Na, P, Rb, Se, Sr, W) from the well water as compared to the controls. Among the species of fungi from the total of 136 isolates were 12 Penicillium spp., at least two Aspergillus spp., a number of other genera (Alternaria sp., Eupenicillium lapidosum, Cladosporium sp., Epicoccum sp., Trichoderma sp., Paecilomyces sp., Chrysosporium sp., Chloridium sp.), and Zygomycetes, and Coelmycetes -- some of which are known mycotoxin producers. The two control wells yielded a mean of 6.5 (SD = 3.5355) individual isolates, while the mean number of isolates from all other sites was 7.6 (SD = 4.4866). Presence of human pathogenic leptospires was detected in 4/8 (50 percent) of the surface water sites sampled. These initial results suggest that additional investigation into these relationships is warranted.

Open-File Report

Multiple-source tracking: Investigating sources of pathogens, nutrients, and sediment in the Upper Little River Basin, Kentucky, water years 2013–14

The South Fork Little River (SFLR) and the North Fork Little River (NFLR) are two major headwater tributaries that flow into the Little River just south of Hopkinsville, Kentucky. Both tributaries are included in those water bodies in Kentucky and across the Nation that have been reported with declining water quality. Each tributary has been listed by the Kentucky Energy and Environment Cabinet—Kentucky Division of Water in the 303(d) List of Waters for Kentucky Report to Congress as impaired by nutrients, pathogens, and sediment for contact recreation from point and nonpoint sources since 2002. In 2009, the Kentucky Energy and Environment Cabinet—Kentucky Division of Water developed a pathogen total maximum daily load (TMDL) for the Little River Basin including the SFLR and NFLR Basins. Future nutrient and suspended-sediment TMDLs are planned once nutrient criteria and suspended-sediment protocols have been developed for Kentucky. In this study, different approaches were used to identify potential sources of fecal-indicator bacteria (FIB), nitrate, and suspended sediment; to inform the TMDL process; and to aid in the implementation of effective watershed-management activities. The main focus of source identification was in the SFLR Basin. To begin understanding the potential sources of fecal contamination, samples were collected at 19 sites for densities of FIB ( E. coli ) in water and fluvial sediment and at 11 sites for Bacteroidales genetic markers (General AllBac, human HF183, ruminant BoBac, canid BacCan, and waterfowl GFD) during the recreational season (May through October) in 2013 and 2014. Results indicated 34 percent of all E. coli water samples ( n =227 samples) did not meet the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 2012 recommended national criteria for primary recreational waters. No criterion currently exists for E. coli in fluvial sediment. By use of the Spearman’s rank correlation test, densities of FIB in fluvial sediments were observed to have a statistically significant positive correlation with drainage area. As drainage area increased, so did the densities of FIB in the fluvial sediments. There was no statistically significant correlation between drainage area and FIB in water. The human-associated marker (HF183) was found above the detection limit in 26 percent of the samples ( n =120 samples); a higher proportion of positive samples was in the NFLR Basin. The ruminant-associated marker (BoBac) was above the detection limit in 65 percent of samples; a higher proportion of positive samples was in the headwaters of the SFLR Basin. Nutrient yields differed between the SFLR and NFLR Basins. Comparatively, the SFLR Basin produced the largest estimated mean yields of total nitrogen (16,000 pounds per year per square mile (lb/yr/mi 2 ) and nitrite plus nitrate nitrogen (12,500 lb/yr/mi 2 ), and the NFLR Basin produced the largest estimated mean yields of ammonia plus organic nitrogen (4,700 lb/yr/mi 2 ), total phosphorus (1,100 lb/yr/mi 2 ), and orthophosphorus (590 lb/yr/mi 2 ). Nitrate sources in surface water were assessed in both basins using dual-nitrate isotope (nitrogen and oxygen) ratios. Data from the different land uses in the SFLR Basin showed differences in nitrate concentrations and overlapping, but moderately distinct, isotopic signatures. Predominantly forested sites consistently had low nitrate concentrations (median = 0.233 milligrams per liter) with minimal variability, and agricultural sites had the highest nitrate concentrations (median = 7.55 milligrams per liter) with the greatest variability. The median nitrate concentration for sites with mixed land use was 2.66 milligrams per liter. Dual-isotope data for forested sites plotted within ranges characteristic of soil-derived nitrate with possible but minimal influence from recycled atmospheric nitrate. Ranges of dual-isotope data for sites with agricultural and mixed land uses were characteristic of possible mixtures of chemical fertilizer, soil-derived nitrate, and manure and septic wastes. In the NFLR Basin, a positive linear relation was observed between nitrate concentrations and nitrogen isotope ratios (δ 15 N NO3 ) (R 2 =0.56; p -value <0.001) that potentially suggests the NFLR Basin has a higher proportion of δ 15 N NO3 -enriched sources, such as manure and sewage. However, mixing of other nitrate-derived sources cannot be excluded, because many values of δ 15 N NO3 and concentrations of nitrate showed minimal variation and plotted within dual-nitrate isotope ranges characteristic of fertilizer and soil-derived nitrate sources. A sediment-fingerprinting approach was used to quantify the relative contribution of four upland sources in the SFLR Basin (agricultural, pasture, riparian/forest, and streambank) to understand how land management affects suspended-sediment concentration. Carbon isotope ratios (δ 13 C), together with calcium and carbon concentrations, were the best indicators of sediment source; the uncertainty was less than 11 percent. Fine-sediment samples collected at the SFLR Basin outlet indicated streambanks as the largest source of the fine sediment to the stream followed by cropland and riparian/forest-source areas, respectively; pasture was a minor contributing source. Streambanks and cropland were essentially equal contributors of fine sediment at the NFLR Basin outlet.

Kentucky

Victims and vectors: highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 and the ecology of wild birds

The emergence of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses has raised concerns about the role of wild birds in the spread and persistence of the disease. In 2005, an outbreak of the highly pathogenic subtype H5N1 killed more than 6,000 wild waterbirds at Qinghai Lake, China. Outbreaks have continued to periodically occur in wild birds at Qinghai Lake and elsewhere in Central China and Mongolia. This region has few poultry but is a major migration and breeding area for waterbirds in the Central Asian Flyway, although relatively little is known about migratory movements of different species and connectivity of their wetland habitats. The scientific debate has focused on the role of waterbirds in the epidemiology, maintenance and spread of HPAI H5N1: to what extent are they victims affected by the disease, or vectors that have a role in disease transmission? In this review, we summarise the current knowledge of wild bird involvement in the ecology of HPAI H5N1. Specifically, we present details on: (1) origin of HPAI H5N1; (2) waterbirds as LPAI reservoirs and evolution into HPAI; (3) the role of waterbirds in virus spread and persistence; (4) key biogeographic regions of outbreak; and (5) applying an ecological research perspective to studying AIVs in wild waterbirds and their ecosystems.

Avian Biology Research

Rapidly expanding range of highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses

The movement of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N8) virus across Eurasia and into North America and the virus&rsquo; propensity to reassort with co-circulating low pathogenicity viruses raise concerns among poultry producers, wildlife biologists, aviculturists, and public health personnel worldwide. Surveillance, modeling, and experimental research will provide the knowledge required for intelligent policy and management decisions.

Emerging Infectious Diseases

Surveillance for zoonotic and selected pathogens in harbor seals Phoca vitulina from central California

The infection status of harbor seals Phoca vitulina in central California, USA, was evaluated through broad surveillance for pathogens in stranded and wild-caught animals from 2001 to 2008, with most samples collected in 2007 and 2008. Stranded animals from Mendocino County to San Luis Obispo County were sampled at a rehabilitation facility: The Marine Mammal Center (TMMC, n = 175); wild-caught animals were sampled at 2 locations: San Francisco Bay (SF, n = 78) and Tomales Bay (TB, n = 97), that differed in degree of urbanization. Low prevalences of Salmonella , Campylobacter , Giardia , and Cryptosporidium were detected in the feces of stranded and wild-caught seals. Clostridium perfringens and Escherichia coli were more prevalent in the feces of stranded (58% [78 out of 135] and 76% [102 out of 135]) than wild-caught (42% [45 out of 106] and 66% [68 out of 106]) seals, whereas Vibrio spp. were 16 times more likely to be cultured from the feces of seals from SF than TB or TMMC (p < 0.005). Brucella DNA was detected in 3.4% of dead stranded harbor seals (2 out of 58). Type A influenza was isolated from feces of 1 out of 96 wild-caught seals. Exposure to Toxoplasma gondii , Sarcocystis neurona , and type A influenza was only detected in the wild-caught harbor seals (post-weaning age classes), whereas antibody titers to Leptospira spp. were detected in stranded and wild-caught seals. No stranded (n = 109) or wild-caught (n = 217) harbor seals had antibodies to phocine distemper virus, although a single low titer to canine distemper virus was detected. These results highlight the role of harbor seals as sentinel species for zoonotic and terrestrial pathogens in the marine environment.

California

Movements of wild ruddy shelducks in the Central Asian Flyway and their spatial relationship to outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1

Highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 remains a serious concern for both poultry and human health. Wild waterfowl are considered to be the reservoir for low pathogenic avian influenza viruses; however, relatively little is known about their movement ecology in regions where HPAI H5N1 outbreaks regularly occur. We studied movements of the ruddy shelduck ( Tadorna ferruginea ), a wild migratory waterfowl species that was infected in the 2005 Qinghai Lake outbreak. We defined their migration with Brownian Bridge utilization distribution models and their breeding and wintering grounds with fixed kernel home ranges. We correlated their movements with HPAI H5N1 outbreaks, poultry density, land cover, and latitude in the Central Asian Flyway. Our Akaike Information Criterion analysis indicated that outbreaks were correlated with land cover, latitude, and poultry density. Although shelduck movements were included in the top two models, they were not a top parameter selected in AICc stepwise regression results. However, timing of outbreaks suggested that outbreaks in the flyway began during the winter in poultry with spillover to wild birds during the spring migration. Thus, studies of the movement ecology of wild birds in areas with persistent HPAI H5N1 outbreaks may contribute to understanding their role in transmission of this disease.

Viruses

The pathogenesis of clade 2.3.4.4 H5 highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses in Ruddy Duck (Oxyura jamaicensis) and Lesser Scaup (Aythya affinis)

Waterfowl are the natural hosts of avian influenza virus (AIV) and disseminate the virus worldwide through migration. Historically, surveillance and research efforts for AIV in waterfowl have focused on dabbling ducks. The role of diving ducks in AIV ecology has not been well characterized. In this study, we examined the relative susceptibility and pathogenicity of clade 2.3.4.4 H5 highly pathogenic AIV (HPAIV) in two species of diving ducks. Juvenile and adult Ruddy Duck ( Oxyura jamaicensis ) and juvenile Lesser Scaup ( Aythya affinis ) were intranasally inoculated with A/Northern Pintail/WA/40964/2014 H5N2 HPAIV. Additional groups of juvenile Lesser Scaups were inoculated with A/Gyrfalcon/WA/41088/2014 H5N8 HPAIV. The approximate 50% bird infectious doses (BID 50 ) of the H5N2 isolate for adult Ruddy Ducks was <10 2 50% egg infectious doses (EID 50 ) and for the juvenile Lesser Scaups it was <10 4 EID 50 . There were insufficient juvenile Ruddy Ducks to calculate the BID 50 . The BID 50 for the juvenile Lesser Scaups inoculated with the H5N8 isolate was 10 3 EID 50 . Clinical disease was not observed in any group; however, mortality occurred in the juvenile Ruddy Ducks inoculated with the H5N2 virus (three of five ducks), and staining for AIV antigen was observed in numerous tissues from these ducks. One adult Ruddy Duck also died and although it was infected with AIV (the duck was positive for virus shedding and AIV antigen was detected in tissues), it was also infected with coccidiosis. The proportion of ducks shedding virus was related to the dose administered, but the titers were similar among dose groups. The group with the fewest ducks shedding virus was the adult Ruddy Ducks. There was a trend for the Lesser Scaups to shed higher titers of virus than the Ruddy Ducks. No virus shedding was detected after 7 d postinoculation in any group. Similar to dabbling ducks, Lesser Scaups and Ruddy Ducks are susceptible to infection with this H5 HPAIV lineage, although they excrete lower titers of virus.

Journal of Wildlife Diseases

Limited detection of antibodies to clade 2.3.4.4 A/Goose/Guangdong/1/1996 lineage highly pathogenic H5 avian influenza virus in North American waterfowl

During 2014, highly pathogenic (HP) influenza A viruses (IAVs) of the A/Goose/Guangdong/1/1996 lineage (GsGD-HP-H5), originating from Asia, were detected in domestic poultry and wild birds in Canada and the US. These clade 2.3.4.4 GsGD-HP-H5 viruses included reassortants possessing North American lineage gene segments; were detected in wild birds in the Pacific, Central, and Mississippi flyways; and caused the largest HP IAV outbreak in poultry in US history. To determine if an antibody response indicative of previous infection with clade 2.3.4.4 GsGD-HP-H5 IAV could be detected in North American wild waterfowl sampled before, during, and after the 2014–15 outbreak, sera from 2,793 geese and 3,715 ducks were tested by blocking enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and hemagglutination inhibition (HI) tests using both clade 2.3.4.4 GsGD-HPH5 and North American lineage low pathogenic (LP) H5 IAV antigens. We detected an antibody response meeting a comparative titer-based criteria (HI titer observed with 2.3.4.4 GsGD-HP-H5 antigens exceeded the titer observed for LP H5 antigen by two or more dilutions) for previous infection with clade 2.3.4.4 GsGD-HP-H5 IAV in only five birds, one Blue-winged Teal ( Spatula discors ) sampled during the outbreak and three Mallards ( Anas platyrhynchos ) and one Canada Goose ( Branta canadensis ) sampled during the post-outbreak period. These serologic results are consistent with the spatiotemporal extent of the outbreak in wild birds in North America during 2014 and 2015 and limited exposure of waterfowl to GsGD-HP-H5 IAV, particularly in the central and eastern US.

Alaska, California, Georgia, Maryland, Minnesota,

Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus exposure and infection in free-ranging bobcats (Lynx rufus) in New York, USA

Highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza A virus (HP H5N1) cases in wild mammals have been increasing globally. Carnivora has been the most affected mammal order; however, the extent of morbidity and mortality in carnivores exposed to HP H5N1 remains undefined. We assessed the presence of antibodies to H5 and N1 in the sera of 16 live-captured bobcats ( Lynx rufus ) in New York State, USA; reported on postcapture outcomes of HP H5N1-exposed bobcats; and reported on a case of HP H5N1 infection in one bobcat. In 2024, 4/16 bobcats (25%) tested positive for antibodies to H5 and N1. Two bobcats were confirmed alive as of November 2024 according to GPS data; the other two were alive as of June 2024, when their GPS collars stopped communicating. Another bobcat, which was negative for HP H5N1 antibodies at capture, died from HP H5N1 infection within 5 wks of capture. Our results provide evidence of bobcats both surviving and succumbing to HP H5N1 infection and highlight the importance of focused health studies paired with monitoring data to better understand exposure, infection, and outcomes for novel pathogens and species.

New York

Potential spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 by wildfowl: dispersal ranges and rates determined from large-scale satellite telemetry

1. Migratory birds are major candidates for long-distance dispersal of zoonotic pathogens. In recent years, wildfowl have been suspected of contributing to the rapid geographic spread of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus. Experimental infection studies reveal that some wild ducks, geese and swans shed this virus asymptomatically and hence have the potential to spread it as they move. 2. We evaluate the dispersive potential of HPAI H5N1 viruses by wildfowl through an analysis of the movement range and movement rate of birds monitored by satellite telemetry in relation to the apparent asymptomatic infection duration (AID) measured in experimental studies. We analysed the first large-scale data set of wildfowl movements, including 228 birds from 19 species monitored by satellite telemetry in 2006&ndash;2009, over HPAI H5N1 affected regions of Asia, Europe and Africa. 3. Our results indicate that individual migratory wildfowl have the potential to disperse HPAI H5N1 over extensive distances, being able to perform movements of up to 2900 km within timeframes compatible with the duration of asymptomatic infection. 4. However, the likelihood of such virus dispersal over long distances by individual wildfowl is low: we estimate that for an individual migratory bird there are, on average, only 5&ndash;15 days per year when infection could result in the dispersal of HPAI H5N1 virus over 500 km. 5. Staging at stopover sites during migration is typically longer than the period of infection and viral shedding, preventing birds from dispersing a virus over several consecutive but interrupted long-distance movements. Intercontinental virus dispersion would therefore probably require relay transmission between a series of successively infected migratory birds. 6. Synthesis and applications . Our results provide a detailed quantitative assessment of the dispersive potential of HPAI H5N1 virus by selected migratory birds. Such dispersive potential rests on the assumption that free-living wildfowl will respond analogously to captive, experimentally-infected birds, and that asymptomatic infection will not alter their movement abilities. Our approach of combining experimental exposure data and telemetry information provides an analytical framework for quantifying the risk of spread of avian-borne diseases.

Journal of Applied Ecology